(Spoilers) So - which events from the show will happen in the books and in what way?

[Chaircat Meow]

2 minutes ago, Titan said:

It isn't. But this is not a "Stannis party" thread. This is intended to be a serious discussion about what we can learn about TWOW from season 6. So in this context seeing so many running around with their hands over their ears trying to ignore the obvious - that things will not go well for Stannis - it is rather fascinating.

It is not obvious to me that things will go badly for Stannis in WoW. Indeed, I think it is clear, on close inspection, that Stannis will eradicate the Boltons and take Winterfell.

He hasn't been set up as an obvious winner though; his march on Winterfell is depressing and is designed to look hopeless. But the clues pointing to his victory are there.

[Titan]

I give up... This is not worth my time.

But I do look forward to reading TWOW, and seeing the melt-down that will happen on the forum.

[Chaircat Meow]

3 minutes ago, Titan said:

I give up... This is not worth my time.

But I do look forward to reading TWOW, and seeing the melt-down that will happen on the forum.

I am actually genuinely interested in your reasoning. I am totally open to the possibility of being wrong and so I'd encourage you to set out your stall.

[Stannis is the man....nis]

1 hour ago, Titan said:

I give up... This is not worth my time.

But I do look forward to reading TWOW, and seeing the melt-down that will happen on the forum.

Ok Titan seriously explain how it makes sense from a story telling standpoint for Stannis to lose to Boltons when 1) GRRM has invested all this time into the Stannis/Botlon fight with Stannis finding out about Karstark/saying he has a plan for the Boltons and 2) George is doing a death fake out with him?

[thehandwipes]

14 hours ago, Ser Jampot said:

Will the mark of the walker cause the wall to fall once Bran tries to pass through it...........

I think the whole attack on the cave was show only (Hold the Door will happen in some other context) and signals that now that they've hit several important plot points, they're going off book with Bran.

14 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

My question is, in your scenario.. what does Jon do once he's resurrected. Almost certainly he's going to lead a Wildling army south, probably to attack Ramsey. If Stannis takes out Ramsey then what does Jon do? Jon leads an army south to fight who? Stannis? Theres a big hole in that train of thought.

It would be very disappointing if Jon was resurrected just to squabble with the Boltons.  It would mean his death had no impact and was just a cliffhanger, he wakes up and does exactly what he was planning to do before he died.  He's got a lot he needs to learn before he heads south, he'll learn that in the North.  I do think he'll march on Winterfell, after all, there must always be a Stark in Winterfell; but I'm a believer in the Ragnarok theory with Jon=Surtr, he won't be heading south with an army of wildlings.

 

[thehandwipes]

As far as Stannis is concerned, everything indicates that Winterfell will play a major role in TWOW.  If we except that, then we must except that there will be POV characters in WF.  So which of our POV's is likely to have a story arc in WF under the Boltons?  None.  Asha, Theon taken captive in battle?  Storyline: tortured to death.  Bran using his powers?  Storyline: disembodied consciousness wanders around crypts whispering to people and laughing when they piss themselves.  Jon leading an army of wildlings?  Storyline: not in Winterfell.

Finally, Theon's story is intrinsically linked both to Bran and to Winterfell.  He remains the perfect POV to have in Winterfell with one foot in the political story and one foot in the mystical story, I would be disappointed if he wasn't there.

As far as the Children creating the Others is concerned I think we got the bastard version.  There is a similar sacrifice scene in the books but it involves humans doing the sacrificing.  It seems likely that the Children used dreams to convince the First Men to use blood magic to create the Others.  After all it was the Valyrians wisdom with blood magic that created their bond with dragons, if not dragons themselves.  But that dude getting sacrificed, the Night's King in the show, is definitely a Stark.

 

[Simbacca]

Maybe there will be two battles in the North in the books.  One is Stannis vs Roose, while the other is Jon vs Ramsey.  Ramsey could take part of the Bolton army to the Wall to get Jon, while Roose is using his allies as his main force in attacking Stannis. 

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

11 hours ago, thehandwipes said:

I think the whole attack on the cave was show only (Hold the Door will happen in some other context) and signals that now that they've hit several important plot points, they're going off book with Bran.

It would be very disappointing if Jon was resurrected just to squabble with the Boltons.  It would mean his death had no impact and was just a cliffhanger, he wakes up and does exactly what he was planning to do before he died.  He's got a lot he needs to learn before he heads south, he'll learn that in the North.  I do think he'll march on Winterfell, after all, there must always be a Stark in Winterfell; but I'm a believer in the Ragnarok theory with Jon=Surtr, he won't be heading south with an army of wildlings.

 

I think Hold the door will almost certainly happen with Hodor holding a door.. to protect probably Bran and he will probably die doing it. I can't see any other scenario where Hodor would have to hold a door but against the WW and to protect Bran. The events leading up to it will be different but I think that will be the outcome.

Lets not pretend GRRM didn't set up Jon's death as a cliffhanger. He did. Thats how he structured his book. Jon going south isn't just a squabble, its about his watch being over, him finding out about his history and retaking the North. I don't think he will be the same person he was before he died either, I can only assume he will be more obsessed with the things concerning him just before his death, so he will kill those who stabbed him, and go to avenge the pink letter stuff. 

What was his arc in the previous two books but about learning to be a leader? What more could he possibly need to learn. 

[kimim]

1 hour ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I think Hold the door will almost certainly happen with Hodor holding a door.. to protect probably Bran and he will probably die doing it. I can't see any other scenario where Hodor would have to hold a door but against the WW and to protect Bran. The events leading up to it will be different but I think that will be the outcome.

Lets not pretend GRRM didn't set up Jon's death as a cliffhanger. He did. Thats how he structured his book. Jon going south isn't just a squabble, its about his watch being over, him finding out about his history and retaking the North. I don't think he will be the same person he was before he died either, I can only assume he will be more obsessed with the things concerning him just before his death, so he will kill those who stabbed him, and go to avenge the pink letter stuff. 

What was his arc in the previous two books but about learning to be a leader? What more could he possibly need to learn. 

How can anyone in their right minds argue that Jon's death was not a cliffhanger? It was the mother of cliffhangers, both show and books.

Obviously dying and being resurrected will affect Jon. Obviously going south, taking Winterfell, and trying to unite the north against the Walkers will be a part of his plot. One problem with Stannis taking Winterfell is that this suddenly makes Jon useless. Jon comes back. He doesn't need to lead, which gets rid of the whole point of his becoming LC. Stannis will be leading, while he, like Davos, follows: Stannis will unite the North and prep northern defenses, using Jon and Davos as intermediaries. Possibly Stannis heads south, leaving Jon and Davos as his regents. Given the rather monster cliffhanger, this would be anticlimactic from Jon's pov and wouldn't fit Stannis' arc.

I adore Stannis as a character (much prefer him to Jon, Dany, Tyrion) as his story has so far been a morality tale. He's supposedly an unbending man who is forced to bend. He's got Mel on one shoulder, Davos on the other, and the suspense, for me, isn't on whether he ultimately becomes king (he will not--fake sword, etc.) but on the choices this character makes in his doomed attempt to win the throne. How far will he go to win? Will he go with Davos? Will he go with Mel? Giving him Winterfell and the Iron Bank, and reducing him to one more person Dany must smite on her victory lap would be insulting.

 

[Stannis is the man....nis]

45 minutes ago, kimim said:

How can anyone in their right minds argue that Jon's death was not a cliffhanger? It was the mother of cliffhangers, both show and books.

Obviously dying and being resurrected will affect Jon. Obviously going south, taking Winterfell, and trying to unite the north against the Walkers will be a part of his plot. One problem with Stannis taking Winterfell is that this suddenly makes Jon useless. Jon comes back. He doesn't need to lead, which gets rid of the whole point of his becoming LC. Stannis will be leading, while he, like Davos, follows: Stannis will unite the North and prep northern defenses, using Jon and Davos as intermediaries. Possibly Stannis heads south, leaving Jon and Davos as his regents. Given the rather monster cliffhanger, this would be anticlimactic from Jon's pov and wouldn't fit Stannis' arc.

I adore Stannis as a character (much prefer him to Jon, Dany, Tyrion) as his story has so far been a morality tale. He's supposedly an unbending man who is forced to bend. He's got Mel on one shoulder, Davos on the other, and the suspense, for me, isn't on whether he ultimately becomes king (he will not--fake sword, etc.) but on the choices this character makes in his doomed attempt to win the throne. How far will he go to win? Will he go with Davos? Will he go with Mel? Giving him Winterfell and the Iron Bank, and reducing him to one more person Dany must smite on her victory lap would be insulting.

 

Why does Jon have to go South? We don't know how long he will be dead for in TWOW and in the time he's died he could be in a weird warg state were Bran fills him in on some critical info. Also Stannis can't burn his daughter if he doesn't take WF. On top of that George left Stannis fate on a cliffhanger too having him not win after the PL, all the build up in ADWD for this fight, and having him reveal he has a plan for Bolton would just be throwing it away for a cliche Stark restoration with Jon and the Wildlings

[Ruhail]

By the time Book Jon gets revived and reacclimated to living the whole ice and WF battles will be over since they're happening simultaneously with Jon's stabbing.

[kimim]

1 hour ago, Stannis is the man....nis said:

Why does Jon have to go South? We don't know how long he will be dead for in TWOW and in the time he's died he could be in a weird warg state were Bran fills him in on some critical info. Also Stannis can't burn his daughter if he doesn't take WF. On top of that George left Stannis fate on a cliffhanger too having him not win after the PL, all the build up in ADWD for this fight, and having him reveal he has a plan for Bolton would just be throwing it away for a cliche Stark restoration with Jon and the Wildlings

I meant Jon heading south of the Wall, not south of the Neck. I'd be shocked if Jon ever stepped foot south of the Neck.

Stannis was faced with a choice to kill a child once before, after losing Blackwater. Back then, Mel wanted him to sacrifice Edric in return for a stone dragon. I can see the loss of Winterfell playing out the same way, but with more at stake. Instead of withdrawing to Dragonstone, Stannis makes his way back to Castle Black. He's weaker than ever, and Mel again advises him to sacrifice a child (Shireen). This time Stannis doesn't just have to worry about the throne; he also has to worry about the Walkers. So will Stannis sacrifice his daughter, not just to take the throne, but to save humanity?

Anyway, idk how it'll all work out, and maybe the show folk were lying through their teeth. What they said makes sense to me, though. I really think GRRM will force Stannis to decide, once and for all, on the fate of yet another child, far dearer to him than Edric. This fits the morality tale nature of Stannis's story so far.

EDIT: ...and GRRM is a cruel, cruel author.

[Stannis is the man....nis]

22 minutes ago, kimim said:

I meant Jon heading south of the Wall, not south of the Neck. I'd be shocked if Jon ever stepped foot south of the Neck.

Stannis was faced with a choice to kill a child once before, after losing Blackwater. Back then, Mel wanted him to sacrifice Edric in return for a stone dragon. I can see the loss of Winterfell playing out the same way, but with more at stake. Instead of withdrawing to Dragonstone, Stannis makes his way back to Castle Black. He's weaker than ever, and Mel again advises him to sacrifice a child (Shireen). This time Stannis doesn't just have to worry about the throne; he also has to worry about the Walkers. So will Stannis sacrifice his daughter, not just to take the throne, but to save humanity?

Anyway, idk how it'll all work out, and maybe the show folk were lying through their teeth. What they said makes sense to me, though. I really think GRRM will force Stannis to decide, once and for all, on the fate of yet another child, far dearer to him than Edric. This fits the morality tale nature of Stannis's story so far.

EDIT: ...and GRRM is a cruel, cruel author.

Stannis is not retreating he said it's WF or die it would be lazy as all hell for George to have Stannis live and retreat just to have Jon retake it and on top of that having Stannis retreat contradicts the PL

[Chaircat Meow]

2 minutes ago, Stannis is the man....nis said:

Stannis is not retreating he said it's WF or die it would be lazy as all hell for George to have Stannis live and retreat just to have Jon retake it and on top of that having Stannis retreat contradicts the PL

Exactly. If Stannis loses, but Jon then does beat the Boltons GrrM will be repeating the same story. Jon, given he only has a few hundred wildlings will need lots of northern help and there will have to be lots of suspense and politicking to make it all plausible. Yet we've already seen that with Davos/Theon/Asha for a good chunk of DwD.

It ain't happening again.

[Stannis is the man....nis]

1 minute ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Exactly. If Stannis loses, but Jon then does beat the Boltons GrrM will be repeating the same story. Jon, given he only has a few hundred wildlings will need lots of northern help and there will have to be lots of suspense and politicking to make it all plausible. Yet we've already seen that with Davos/Theon/Asha for a good chunk of DwD.

It ain't happening again.

^This. If Stannis loses that means Mors, Big Bucket, and Wyman are toast so Jon wouldn't even have the man power to go a second round with the Boltons

[Ruhail]

9 minutes ago, Stannis is the man....nis said:

^This. If Stannis loses that means Mors, Big Bucket, and Wyman are toast so Jon wouldn't even have the man power to go a second round with the Boltons

And Asha

[BalerionTheCat]

If Jon is the one to take back Winterfell, then yes, Stannis would lose his battle, and probably his life there.

But IMO it is not necessary. I believe Stannis, with Manderly help, can defeat the Freys on the field. Someone has to drown in the lake, with all these fishing holes weakening the ice. But taking Winterfell is another affair. Stannis could repeat the Bloton's trick, more or less: Stannis' men disguise in Freys'. Them and the Manderlys' return to the WF, apparently victorious of Stannis. But once inside, using surprise, they attack and kill the Boltons. The others houses probably staying neutral or siding with Manderly.

For the CotF creating the WW to fight the FM invasion. I don't believe it more than the NK return. I have more faith in the TWoIaF book. The 5 forts were built to defend the realm against the Lion of Night demons. This was long before the FM invasion. IMO, the WW are these demons.

[thehandwipes]

8 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

Lets not pretend GRRM didn't set up Jon's death as a cliffhanger. He did. Thats how he structured his book. Jon going south isn't just a squabble, its about his watch being over, him finding out about his history and retaking the North. I don't think he will be the same person he was before he died either, I can only assume he will be more obsessed with the things concerning him just before his death, so he will kill those who stabbed him, and go to avenge the pink letter stuff. 

What was his arc in the previous two books but about learning to be a leader? What more could he possibly need to learn. 

Of course I didn't say it wasn't a cliffhanger, I said it wasn't just a cliffhanger.  If he comes back ready to march on WF just like he was going to do before he was stabbed to death, then his death didn't really effect the plot.  He might as well have been in a coma, or recovering from his wounds, or just overslept.  His death was definitely designed to be a cliffhanger, but it will also change the story dramatically.

Who he is going to lead.  What the Night's Watch really is.  What the Others are.  Who the Starks are.  Who he is.  Jon knows nothing, he needs to learn a lot before his story can move into its final phase.  I don't doubt that he will in fact march on Winterfell and take it before the end of TWOW, but he will take it from Stannis.

 

[Lord_Ravenstone]

7 hours ago, kimim said:

How can anyone in their right minds argue that Jon's death was not a cliffhanger? It was the mother of cliffhangers, both show and books.

Obviously dying and being resurrected will affect Jon. Obviously going south, taking Winterfell, and trying to unite the north against the Walkers will be a part of his plot. One problem with Stannis taking Winterfell is that this suddenly makes Jon useless. Jon comes back. He doesn't need to lead, which gets rid of the whole point of his becoming LC. Stannis will be leading, while he, like Davos, follows: Stannis will unite the North and prep northern defenses, using Jon and Davos as intermediaries. Possibly Stannis heads south, leaving Jon and Davos as his regents. Given the rather monster cliffhanger, this would be anticlimactic from Jon's pov and wouldn't fit Stannis' arc.

I adore Stannis as a character (much prefer him to Jon, Dany, Tyrion) as his story has so far been a morality tale. He's supposedly an unbending man who is forced to bend. He's got Mel on one shoulder, Davos on the other, and the suspense, for me, isn't on whether he ultimately becomes king (he will not--fake sword, etc.) but on the choices this character makes in his doomed attempt to win the throne. How far will he go to win? Will he go with Davos? Will he go with Mel? Giving him Winterfell and the Iron Bank, and reducing him to one more person Dany must smite on her victory lap would be insulting.

 

It's likely Jon will be out of commission for most of the book. 

Seems more like Jon will take over for Stannis in late TWOW/ ADOS once Stannis is killed off or has all influence taken away from him once it's discovered he's not the TPTWP or for burning his daugher.

Stannis seems to be setting up a scenario where the North abandons him and joins Jon. 

It'd be a complete retread if Jon unites the North again and would make everything that happened with Stannis post ASOS to be filler and completely unnecessary 

[thehandwipes]

6 hours ago, kimim said:

I meant Jon heading south of the Wall, not south of the Neck. I'd be shocked if Jon ever stepped foot south of the Neck.

Stannis was faced with a choice to kill a child once before, after losing Blackwater. Back then, Mel wanted him to sacrifice Edric in return for a stone dragon. I can see the loss of Winterfell playing out the same way, but with more at stake. Instead of withdrawing to Dragonstone, Stannis makes his way back to Castle Black. He's weaker than ever, and Mel again advises him to sacrifice a child (Shireen). This time Stannis doesn't just have to worry about the throne; he also has to worry about the Walkers. So will Stannis sacrifice his daughter, not just to take the throne, but to save humanity?

Anyway, idk how it'll all work out, and maybe the show folk were lying through their teeth. What they said makes sense to me, though. I really think GRRM will force Stannis to decide, once and for all, on the fate of yet another child, far dearer to him than Edric. This fits the morality tale nature of Stannis's story so far.

EDIT: ...and GRRM is a cruel, cruel author.

I don't doubt that Stannis will burn Shireen, but it will happen in Winterfell towards the end of TWOW.  Stannis cast two shadows that took a heavy physical toll on him, but spiritually we've never seen any consequences to what he's done.  I feel there must be a dark turn to Stannis story before its done.  The Macbeth analogies in the book and show only make it far more likely that he'll take WF and rule it.

Finally, the corrupted, or Mad, king is such a staple of fantasy it seems unlikely that GRRM won't put his own spin on it.  There is the Mad King of course, but that's backstory.  This is a quote from Tolkien regarding the character Denethor:

He [Denethor] must have guessed that the Ithil-stone [Sauron's palantír] was in evil hands, and risked contact with it, trusting his strength. His trust was not entirely unjustified. Sauron failed to dominate him and could only influence him by deceits.

Saruman fell under the domination of Sauron... [while] Denethor remained steadfast in his rejection of Sauron, but was made to believe that his defeat was inevitable, and so fell into despair. The reasons for this difference were no doubt that in the first place Denethor was a man of great strength of will and maintained the integrity of his personality until the final blow of the (apparently) mortal wound of his only surviving son.

Doesn't this sound so much like Stannis, and wouldn't something similar be so dramatically satisfying.  And of course Denethor did try to burn his son and only living child alive.  Now I don't think he's just gonna steal a character arc from Tolkien but so many of the tropes and character archetypes that GRRM likes to subvert came originally from Tolkien, and they both borrow from the same mythological sources.