The monkeys growing?

[Calibandar]

Speaking of conjecture, any from you Ran on when you think the book might be out?

Could he be on the finishing stretch?

[sifth]

17 minutes ago, Ran said:

There's no real conjecture with this. GRRM explicitly stated that Brienne and Dorne were two areas that didn't work through flashback for him, that he felt it was too important to show what happened with them following ASoS to just go and treat it all after a five year flashback.

but other than the Lady Stoneheart stuff at the end, what did those chapters really tell us? Not much I recall and I read the book two or three times. I mean GRRM did pretty much all of Robert and Balon's rebellions using flashbacks and they worked brilliantly for the pacing of the story.

Sure like with Arya he tried to use Brienne's travel log to plant a few seeds here and there, but that's it. I recall one of her chapters consists of Brienne just hanging out with two Hedge Knights and just talking about random stuff, until she eventually chooses to leave them. A classic case of a shaggy dog story if I ever saw one.

[Lord Varys]

15 minutes ago, sifth said:

You're using a lot of conjuncture to defend Brienne's AFFC's arc and it mostly seems to be a case of "GRRM put her in the book as a POV, so she must be important". GRRM also made Arys Oakheart and Quentyn Martell POV characters and their only contribution to the story was to die.

To be honest I loved her final two chapters, when stuff finally starts happening, but for the most part her AFFC arc consists of her going from one random place to the next, killing a few minor villains and not finding Sansa. We'll see what's next for Brienne in the up coming book I hope, but a lot of her AFFC's arc felt like fat that could easily have been trimmed, so to speak.

Well, I guess you could say something similar for Arya's pointless quest to reach her mother and brother(s). We also always knew where the hell all of them were (aside from Rickon at a certain point) yet nobody ever complains that her chapters were 'pointless' because she never saw Catelyn and Robb again before they were killed.

The situation with the Ironborn and Dorne is different. Those chapters grew out of George's original attempt to create a Prologue for AFfC/ADwD covering what had happened during ASoS on the Iron Islands and in Dorne. Perhaps the stories there could have been more focused with only Areo/Arianne and Victarion/Asha as POVs but the one Arys chapter doesn't exactly cause all that much problems. Honestly, I've more issues with the focus of the story on the Myrcella plot - I'd have much more liked more Hotah chapter covering the spirit of court life at the Water Gardens and in Sunspear (The Watcher was really great in that regard).

The original plan for those stories was serve as a Prologue and one really wonders whether it was such a great idea to spread them throughout AFfC.

I'm not sure what would have been won had the chapters in AFfC been trimmed down. Back then that would have meant even fewer chapters in AFfC. The irritating thing about that book comes, I think, mainly with the AFfC/ADwD split.

I've not yet had the time to read those two books in one of the ways the chapters could be rearranged to create a single book but I think the reading experience would be much more interesting if you do it that way during a reread. And perhaps things could even be made better still if one moved the first Aeron and Areo chapter back into ASoS to get Doran and Aeron's reactions to Oberyn and Balon's deaths in the books in which those characters actually died.

As to Brienne:

She meets a lot of interesting characters on the road. Beginning with Ser Shadrich of the Shady Glen (later in Littlefinger's service and possibly one of Varys' grown-up 'little mice' - presumably one of the few lucky people who could keep their tongues) and the High Sparrow. Her meeting with Randyll Tarly sets that guy up as a real character (who is going to be important in TWoW, presumably). The quest to Crackclaw Point ties up some loose ends and establishes the people there as a potentially important faction. They are all die-hard Targaryen loyalists and pretty close to KL. You know who will soon be approaching the city from the South so you'll realize why this might have been important. Then we have Septon Meribald and the view into the common man and the story about the effects war has on people (the Broken Man speech). This story is continued with the story of the Elder Brother of the Quiet Isle (who is a former broken man himself) culminating in the reintroduction of Sandor Clegane as the gravedigger.

Finally things continue with Brienne meeting the Brotherhood, Gendry, Rorge, Biter, Thoros, and Catelyn.

Brienne's own story didn't continue all that much, but there was a lot of reintroduction and setup done in those chapters, not to mention Brienne's own character development. She killed for the first time at the Whispers, and this continued when she met again with Rorge and Biter. Now, the reunion with Catelyn and Jaime certainly is destined to set up whatever new stories lie ahead of her. We don't know yet what that is but my guess is that it has to do with stuff George deliberately pushed back/saved for TWoW.

There is a number of directions the story could take. Here are a few:

- Brienne becomes a leader of the Brotherhood and ends up being heavily involved in Catelyn's revenge plans in the Riverlands (the retaking of Riverrun and the eventual destruction of the Twins).

- Jaime and Brienne team up after they have done what Catelyn is going to demand of them (possibly being connected to the plan to retake Riverrun - Jaime has to do something to save his neck) and continue their journey together. Something like that was hinted at with the weirwood dream Jaime had back in ASoS (which was also the first hint that Brienne herself is of major importance for the overall story, a fact many people ignored - Bloodraven wouldn't have sent such a dream if he hadn't had a good reason to want Brienne to survive).

- With Jaime already being determined 'to tell the truth' about his children by Cersei one could see Jaime and Brienne both joining camp Aegon, and subsequently becoming important people in Aegon's rise to the Iron Throne as well as in the subsequent struggle with Daenerys (Jaime has only murdered Aegon's grandfather, after all). Brienne most likely will become a champion in the new War of the Dawn considering that she both has a Valyrian steel sword as well as Targaryen blood. Considering the Kingslayer/Kingmaker stories we got (Criston Cole, Arys Oakheart, Jaime Lannister himself) the worst possible ending for these two would be if Jaime became some sort of Aegon's version of the three knights at the tower and Brienne Dany's version of Jaime Lannister the Kingslayer, resulting in Brienne killing Jaime to enable Dany to take the throne.

In any case, if Brienne/Jaime's stories are going to hook them up with the Aegon plot then nothing of this sort could have been in AFfC. But then, quite a lot of Jaime's 'Rhaegar regret' is in AFfC, so there is certainly a lot of subtle foreshadowing in that direction. And Brienne certainly should join at least one other Kingsguard. She is far too like Dunk to not do something like that.

[Cas Stark]

The primary benefit in cutting the extraneous verbiage & POVs from Feast and Dance is that yes, they would have then been a single book, not the absolute I N S A N I T Y of the regional split, and in all probability the two battles that I believe he had already written @ the time of Dance's publication would have been included....making for a much more satisfying reading experience and a novel that would have beginning, middle and end as well, instead of the "here are some chapters where stuff happens and then it ends" manner of Feast and Dance.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Cas Stark said:

The primary benefit in cutting the extraneous verbiage & POVs from Feast and Dance is that yes, they would have then been a single book, not the absolute I N S A N I T Y of the regional split, and in all probability the two battles that I believe he had already written @ the time of Dance's publication would have been included....making for a much more satisfying reading experience and a novel that would have beginning, middle and end as well, instead of the "here are some chapters where stuff happens and then it ends" manner of Feast and Dance.

Nope, that wouldn't have come to pass because, you know, all those ADwD chapters weren't yet finished back in 2005 when AFfC was published. The decision to split things up was made long before George would have entered into the whole battle territory at the very end of ADwD.

ADwD involved a lot of rewriting and changing not just with the Meereenese knot but also with the Aegon plot (Tyrion first being present when the Golden Company made their decision to go west instead of east).

I'd also have liked to read about the battles - but honestly, they wouldn't have given the book and end. It would just have been other cliffhangers. None of those books have proper endings. In a sense, AGoT and ASoS have - the former because it sets up new stories (Dany the Dragon Queen, Robb the King in the North) and the latter because it wraps up a lot of dangling plots, but neither have true endings.

ACoK actually has the worst ending especially in regards to the KL plot. A battle has been fought, the Lannisters have won, but this didn't resolve anything nor did it end the war.

AFfC is actually nicely framed by the beginning and the end of Cersei's short reign and the Prologue in Oldtown and Sam's last chapter but there are other plots in that books (Brienne, Jaime, Arya, Sansa) that just stop at one point.

But, honestly, this whole thing is one grand book. There is only one beginning and only a true end at the very end - presumably, at least. The POV structure will actually necessitate that the story eventually ends with a lot of cliffhangers because not every POV character will die and all the surviving children will have their entire lives ahead of them about which we'll know nothing at all unless George decides to tell us something about that in some fashion.

After all, we know that Robert and Ned fought and won Robert's Rebellion and later crushed Balon Greyjoy. But their story did not end there. It ended with their deaths years later, and the story of the survivors of this series will also, in effect, end with their deaths, not with some victory over an enemy - even if those enemies happen to be the Others this time.

[Cas Stark]

I'm not sure we're going to have any survivors to speak of beyond Tyrion Lannister and Sansa and maybe Dany and Bran, thus, my hugely diminished appetite for Winds of Winter and the end of the series. I guess bittersweet is in the eye of the beholder. 

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I'm not sure we're going to have any survivors to speak of beyond Tyrion Lannister and Sansa and maybe Dany and Bran, thus, my hugely diminished appetite for Winds of Winter and the end of the series. I guess bittersweet is in the eye of the beholder. 

Some people will survive in any case, and we'll have no clue how they lives will continue. A lot of characters (POV or not) are very young. And even those in their twenties and thirties might still have more than half their lives ahead of them.

If the freak seasons end after the grand finale then things would actually be pretty well there because we'd not have to expect some people to die in the next winter or so.

[jharaldson]

On 5/25/2016 at 9:19 AM, Werthead said:

The publishers will release the book 3 months after final turn-in, like they did for ADWD and ASoS.

I agree that it is 3 months from being turned in to being available on the shelves but Bantam also announced a publication date 4 months and 9 days in advance for ADWD.

GRRM Dance Update

I think if we assume that timeframes stay the same then we also need to assume that a firm publisher and author based release date will be announced.  If it happened today then the book would be out on October 9th, based on the direct comparable with ADWD.  We are about 2.5 months from a 2016 release date not being feasible.

[Werthead]

On 26/05/2016 at 4:33 PM, Calibandar said:

At the same time, at various points last year he thought he would be done in a few months time. First in August, then October, then by New Year. That gave us the impression that he must have been fairly close on each of those occasions, and I think that is the thing that is not true. We are now 5 full months since George's new year entry and he still isn't done. It's one thing to trick yourself into thinking you can finish in a few months time if you're fairly close. What I believe is happening here is that George was still well below a 1,000 ms pages at the time of new year, and thus needs 500 more in order to finish the book. At his pace, that is a lot.

Guy Kay has published two standalone novels of 600 pages each in this period since Dance was published. And that includes a year for each book that was devoted to research not spent writing. I mention Kay because he has been mentioned as another fine writer who does take quite a while to release books. But even he is well ahead of George in productivity.

Kay takes three years to write a novel, but each one of those novels is c. 200,000 words, or half or less the word count of ASoS/ADWD (and probably TWoW). So in terms of production time, he is about even with George.

Quote

I think if we assume that timeframes stay the same then we also need to assume that a firm publisher and author based release date will be announced.  If it happened today then the book would be out on October 9th, based on the direct comparable with ADWD.  We are about 2.5 months from a 2016 release date not being feasible.

I think 2016 publication is improbable at this time. If it was possible, I think we would be hearing more positive noises from Team GRRM. I get the sense it's not a vast distance away, but 2017 is looking more likely.

I am looking forward to the book coming out so we can learn what the problem was this time. George has refused to speak about the writing process at all, so it'd be interesting to see if there was a retroactive Meereenese Knot II, or if he simply spent too much time on other things back in 2011/12 and took too long to get back underway again (which he has indicated in interviews). If that's the case, I'm hoping we get a minimal (or even no) signing tour for TWoW so he can get on with ADoS immediately and wrap the whole thing up ASAP.

[JGP]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I think 2016 publication is improbable at this time. If it was possible, I think we would be hearing more positive noises from Team GRRM. I get the sense it's not a vast distance away, but 2017 is looking more likely.

I am looking forward to the book coming out so we can learn what the problem was this time. George has refused to speak about the writing process at all, so it'd be interesting to see if there was a retroactive Meereenese Knot II, or if he simply spent too much time on other things back in 2011/12 and took too long to get back underway again (which he has indicated in interviews). If that's the case, I'm hoping we get a minimal (or even no) signing tour for TWoW so he can get on with ADoS immediately and wrap the whole thing up ASAP.

I'd agree with you, except for that last part. 

Do you really see Martin wrapping this up in one book after Dance, Wert?

[Calibandar]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Kay takes three years to write a novel, but each one of those novels is c. 200,000 words, or half or less the word count of ASoS/ADWD (and probably TWoW). So in terms of production time, he is about even with George.

 

Not sure why you're belaboring a blatantly wrong point. You were the one who brought up Kay in a previous discussion as someone who writes at George's pace but who doesn't take as much flack for being slow. He doesn't write at George's pace, he is *noticably* more productive than George. To point:

Kay wrote River of Stars, which is 640 pages in hardback, and Children of Earth and Sky, which is 590 pages in hardback, in the time since Dance with Dragons has been published. Together that is 1230 pages.

Even a Dance with Dragons is "only" 950 pages, and Winds is expected to be the same size as Dance and Storm of Swords. Maybe it'll be a bit shorter even, maybe a bit longer, but in any case, about that size. So that is nearly 300 pages less if you compare what Winds will be, to Kay's two releases. And if you then take into account that Kay had to write two completely different novels with brand new characters in different settings, well, that only increases the difference between the two.

Ergo, not someone George should be compared to favourably when discussing progress/ speed of writing amongst top fantasy authors of today. Rothfuss might have been a better example.

[Masha]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Kay takes three years to write a novel, but each one of those novels is c. 200,000 words, or half or less the word count of ASoS/ADWD (and probably TWoW). So in terms of production time, he is about even with George.

I think 2016 publication is improbable at this time. If it was possible, I think we would be hearing more positive noises from Team GRRM. I get the sense it's not a vast distance away, but 2017 is looking more likely.

I am looking forward to the book coming out so we can learn what the problem was this time. George has refused to speak about the writing process at all, so it'd be interesting to see if there was a retroactive Meereenese Knot II, or if he simply spent too much time on other things back in 2011/12 and took too long to get back underway again (which he has indicated in interviews). If that's the case, I'm hoping we get a minimal (or even no) signing tour for TWoW so he can get on with ADoS immediately and wrap the whole thing up ASAP.

I agree, comparing George's notablog - blog before the Dance and now, at least 7 months BEFORE actual release, George started talking about seeing the end in sight, 5 months before the release he said he is "almost done". Now, we get "monkey is growing and maybe someday...", this doesn't look to me the end is in sight and 2016. My "hopeful" expectations is that late fall we'll get notice that book is nearly its completion, with late spring of 2017 as a release. My "bad" expectations - late summer/early fall 2017 release. Any later than 2017 release? GRRM will lose a LOT of his potential readers as series going to end taking their audience with them. 

 

[Calibandar]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

I am looking forward to the book coming out so we can learn what the problem was this time. George has refused to speak about the writing process at all, so it'd be interesting to see if there was a retroactive Meereenese Knot II, or if he simply spent too much time on other things back in 2011/12 and took too long to get back underway again (which he has indicated in interviews). If that's the case, I'm hoping we get a minimal (or even no) signing tour for TWoW so he can get on with ADoS immediately and wrap the whole thing up ASAP.

I'm looking forward to the book even more now with the tv show out and its revelations.

We really need a book from George so that we can read what these mysteries are all about and have some proper detailing of them. The show is racing through some very interesting and exciting developments, but it is absolutely flying by. Learning what the problem was this time though, not really waiting for an explanation on that, I'm sure there were reasons as always.

 

[draft0]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

I am looking forward to the book coming out so we can learn what the problem was this time. George has refused to speak about the writing process at all, so it'd be interesting to see if there was a retroactive Meereenese Knot II, or if he simply spent too much time on other things back in 2011/12 and took too long to get back underway again (which he has indicated in interviews). If that's the case, I'm hoping we get a minimal (or even no) signing tour for TWoW so he can get on with ADoS immediately and wrap the whole thing up ASAP.

The latter, I think.

It's just a monster of a book and those take a long time to write. Meereenese Knot (plus events at the Wall, an underrated storytelling problem) caused the writing of ADWD to stretch out to 11 years. I don't think TWOW will take that long.

With you on no signing tour.

[God-Emperor of Yi Ti]

7 hours ago, Masha said:

I agree, comparing George's notablog - blog before the Dance and now, at least 7 months BEFORE actual release, George started talking about seeing the end in sight, 5 months before the release he said he is "almost done". Now, we get "monkey is growing and maybe someday...", this doesn't look to me the end is in sight and 2016. My "hopeful" expectations is that late fall we'll get notice that book is nearly its completion, with late spring of 2017 as a release. My "bad" expectations - late summer/early fall 2017 release. Any later than 2017 release? GRRM will lose a LOT of his potential readers as series going to end taking their audience with them. 

One imagines he is highly motivated to get it out before Season 7; after that most of the endgame of the series will be on the table

But then i could have said the same about this season...

Anyway, that gives him 6 months to wrap WoW up...

[Greg B]

Re: The Gap, I certainly think it would have been hard for some (most) genre writers to pull off. But we're talking about Martin. We've learned all about Robert's Rebellion and, actually, a remarkable amount of detail on three hundred years of the Targaryen Dynasty through flashbacks and extremely well crafted and carefully doled out exposition. It's one of Martin's strengths, and it's one of the things that give the series its distinctive feel. It would have been awesome to pick up in media res after five years and gradually discover or piece together the details (we actually need) on how we got there.

So I respectfully disagree with Lord Varys: I think Martin was writing toward a five-year gap in ASOS, and the series became a trainwreck when he scrapped it. Maybe "trainwreck" is a bad analogy; perhaps Humpty Dumpty is a better one. Because he decided to try to detail that "gap," the story has splintered into a thousand pieces alternately spinning off in different directions or spinning in place, going nowhere. I can't even imagine how difficult and depressing it must be to sit down at the computer and try to put them back together again. I would have said "fuck it, I screwed it up" a long time ago, but I'm obviously not Martin. I'll be surprised if he can finish TWOW, and shocked and awed if he completes another book in the series after that.

(I should say I also accept the opinion of those who enjoy AFFC/ADWD, think they were good books, and believe they would have enjoyed the continuation of the series via five-year gap less. That's valid. It's baffling to me, but I accept it.)

As for Martin's repeated, unrealistic deadlines, they don't surprise me at all. I've seen it a thousand times from lesser writers, including myself. When the writing "goes well," you can produce quality pages very quickly. So you're in a funk, you're blowing deadlines, you're grinding out crap, or maybe you haven't even been able to force yourself to grind out crap for a while. Weeks and months have gone by with little or no progress, and you get more depressed, and it gets harder to force yourself to sit down and grind. But you know from past experience if you can just get in the zone, you can produce a high volume of good work in a short time. Ironically, that makes an excellent excuse for why you shouldn't sit down and grind -- it's wasted effort, likely to produce crap, and it's better to just focus on something else until you're in the zone. It can even be true...unless you never get in the zone.

[draft0]

8 hours ago, Greg B said:

Re: The Gap, I certainly think it would have been hard for some (most) genre writers to pull off. But we're talking about Martin. We've learned all about Robert's Rebellion and, actually, a remarkable amount of detail on three hundred years of the Targaryen Dynasty through flashbacks and extremely well crafted and carefully doled out exposition. It's one of Martin's strengths, and it's one of the things that give the series its distinctive feel. It would have been awesome to pick up in media res after five years and gradually discover or piece together the details (we actually need) on how we got there.

So I respectfully disagree with Lord Varys: I think Martin was writing toward a five-year gap in ASOS, and the series became a trainwreck when he scrapped it. Maybe "trainwreck" is a bad analogy; perhaps Humpty Dumpty is a better one. Because he decided to try to detail that "gap," the story has splintered into a thousand pieces alternately spinning off in different directions or spinning in place, going nowhere. I can't even imagine how difficult and depressing it must be to sit down at the computer and try to put them back together again. I would have said "fuck it, I screwed it up" a long time ago, but I'm obviously not Martin. I'll be surprised if he can finish TWOW, and shocked and awed if he completes another book in the series after that.

(I should say I also accept the opinion of those who enjoy AFFC/ADWD, think they were good books, and believe they would have enjoyed the continuation of the series via five-year gap less. That's valid. It's baffling to me, but I accept it.)

Jon Snow's arc in Dance with Dragons is the greatest thing that GRRM has ever written.

It's not something you can do in flashbacks. It's not something you can skip. Becoming Lord Commander is the most important thing that ever happened to Jon; his most difficult test of character. And he failed. That was a story worth telling, in my view, and it would have been a disservice to the integrity of the narrative to do otherwise.

Personally, I suspect the biggest structural nightmare that GRRM encountered is not the five year gap but the decision for Dany to turn to Slaver's Bay at the end of ACOK. That wasn't in his original outline and was clearly a plot device to keep Dany from getting to Westeros too early. But once Dany started wrecking havoc across half the continent he couldn't ignore the consequences of that. Thus the Meereenese Knot and the warping of every storyline connected to her, including Tyrion, Aegon, the Martells, the Greyjoys, etc. Having to create all this new material from scratch must have been a colossal challenge.

[Greg B]

2 minutes ago, draft0 said:

Jon Snow's arc in Dance with Dragons is the greatest thing that GRRM has ever written.

It's not something you can do in flashbacks. It's not something you can skip. Becoming Lord Commander is the most important thing that ever happened to Jon; his most difficult test of character. And he failed. That was a story worth telling, in my view, and it would have been a disservice to the integrity of the narrative to do otherwise.

I disagree with your assessment of the arc, at least as it was actually executed. I think it was positively butchered by the cutting and splicing that happened just before the rushed publication of the book.

But let's accept that you're right, or at least that Martin shares your view. It's a story that deserves to be told. So tell it. Jon has been settling the wildlings in the Gift and preparing the Wall for the Others, maybe even doing some courageous rangings (e.g. Hardhome) that we didn't get to see anyway. He's established himself as a capable lord commander and maybe even a legendary ranger. Hell, Jon's first chapter could be a Hardhome-like evacuation, with him rescuing more of the Free Folk and coming face to face with the Others. How awesome would that be?

Meanwhile, Stannis has been bogged down in a winter war against the Bolton's for five years, a situation that more closely approximates a real medieval war than this "eh, I've only got space for one real battle since I've opted to write this more-or-less in real-time" situation we're getting. Stannis is importing mercenaries from Essos, the Boltons are trying to hold together an uneasy North, some strongholds are taken and retaken, battles are won and lost, but no one has scored a decisive victory. This could be a whole new Robert's Rebellion worth of military history that Martin can dole out in bits and pieces as we learn how we've come to these dire straits.

The tide begins to turn against Stannis, entanglements with Jon's long-lost family resurface (for real or false), and Jon gets more and more pulled into the political and military conflict. Jon is a seasoned commander now, so it isn't so goofy when he gives Stannis military advice that saves him from yet another ultimate defeat. To make matters worse, maybe there have even been some probing attacks against the Wall by the Others, as they pursue the rangers south after that rescue we open the chapter with! Gasp! Jon knows the Night's Watch can't hold, the North is fractured under the Boltons' mad rule, and so, in desperation, with Stannis facing defeat, he decides to go warlord and unite the North under his own banner because it's the only way to hold off the Others. There's simply no time to let this icy quagmire of a conflict resolve itself, and Jon can't afford to bet on the outcome. For the opposition that's been festering for five years, this is the last straw and they assassinate him.

Caesar crosses the Rubicon in 49 BC and the Ides of March is 44 BC. This shit is momentous...it's okay if we get five years of setup for it.

Now when Jon fails it has a lot more punch, because he's demonstrated some success as a lord commander before he fails his test of character. And his vision for the wildlings and the role they could play in the realm has been proven not just to be folly, so it's a gut punch when it all crumbles around him.

I'm entirely convinced there isn't an arc in AFFC and ADWD that couldn't have been executed at least as well with a five-year gap. If anything, it would make the whole narrative a lot more realistic, because we wouldn't have to synchronize the timing of small-scale personal character arcs with large-scale events such as medieval wars. Some of the events would best be told through flashbacks and exposition (again, something Martin excels at and a technique that serves as the bedrock of the series), but other important character arcs he could just deliver with five years of setup behind them.

Martin's dismissive comment about how the five-year gap (or at least a gap -- I don't know that it has to be five years) wouldn't work for Jon, because he'd be like, "Well, I've been lord commander for five years, and nothing has really happened" was really disappointing. Lots of things could have happened -- setup for the story that he wanted to tell about Jon. He could have used these gaps to get all his pieces into position and nailed these arcs. He says he tried and failed, and I have to take him at his word, despite the fact that I have more respect for his skills than that. But if I were a suspicious man, I'd say he just fell in love with his tertiary characters and couldn't bear to push them off the stage. It's happened before to lesser writers. Writing an epic series like this across twenty years and keeping a grip on your story is hard. (Not that I've attempted anything on this scale, but writing one book without the middle bogging down into a chaotic mess is hard.)

Anyway, this is just one hack's swipe at how it might have been handled. Martin could have done it much better. I think it was a huge missed opportunity and the available evidence suggests that a series that could have been a masterpiece won't ever recover. I realize this is my subjective view, and others disagree, but I think it's a damn shame.

[Good Guy Garlan]

10 minutes ago, Greg B said:

I disagree with your assessment of the arc, at least as it was actually executed. I think it was positively butchered by the cutting and splicing that happened just before the rushed publication of the book.

But let's accept that you're right, or at least that Martin shares your view. It's a story that deserves to be told. So tell it. Jon has been settling the wildlings in the Gift and preparing the Wall for the Others, maybe even doing some courageous rangings (e.g. Hardhome) that we didn't get to see anyway. He's established himself as a capable lord commander and maybe even a legendary ranger. Hell, Jon's first chapter could be a Hardhome-like evacuation, with him rescuing more of the Free Folk and coming face to face with the Others. How awesome would that be?

Meanwhile, Stannis has been bogged down in a winter war against the Bolton's for five years, a situation that more closely approximates a real medieval war than this "eh, I've only got space for one real battle since I've opted to write this more-or-less in real-time" situation we're getting. Stannis is importing mercenaries from Essos, the Boltons are trying to hold together an uneasy North, some strongholds are taken and retaken, battles are won and lost, but no one has scored a decisive victory. This could be a whole new Robert's Rebellion worth of military history that Martin can dole out in bits and pieces as we learn how we've come to these dire straits.

The tide begins to turn against Stannis, entanglements with Jon's long-lost family resurface (for real or false), and Jon gets more and more pulled into the political and military conflict. Jon is a seasoned commander now, so it isn't so goofy when he gives Stannis military advice that saves him from yet another ultimate defeat. To make matters worse, maybe there have even been some probing attacks against the Wall by the Others, as they pursue the rangers south after that rescue we open the chapter with! Gasp! Jon knows the Night's Watch can't hold, the North is fractured under the Boltons' mad rule, and so, in desperation, with Stannis facing defeat, he decides to go warlord and unite the North under his own banner because it's the only way to hold off the Others. There's simply no time to let this icy quagmire of a conflict resolve itself, and Jon can't afford to bet on the outcome. For the opposition that's been festering for five years, this is the last straw and they assassinate him.

Caesar crosses the Rubicon in 49 BC and the Ides of March is 44 BC. This shit is momentous...it's okay if we get five years of setup for it.

Now when Jon fails it has a lot more punch, because he's demonstrated some success as a lord commander before he fails his test of character. And his vision for the wildlings and the role they could play in the realm has been proven not just to be folly, so it's a gut punch when it all crumbles around him.

I'm entirely convinced there isn't an arc in AFFC and ADWD that couldn't have been executed at least as well with a five-year gap. If anything, it would make the whole narrative a lot more realistic, because we wouldn't have to synchronize the timing of small-scale personal character arcs with large-scale events such as medieval wars. Some of the events would best be told through flashbacks and exposition (again, something Martin excels at and a technique that serves as the bedrock of the series), but other important character arcs he could just deliver with five years of setup behind them.

Martin's dismissive comment about how the five-year gap (or at least a gap -- I don't know that it has to be five years) wouldn't work for Jon, because he'd be like, "Well, I've been lord commander for five years, and nothing has really happened" was really disappointing. Lots of things could have happened -- setup for the story that he wanted to tell about Jon. He could have used these gaps to get all his pieces into position and nailed these arcs. He says he tried and failed, and I have to take him at his word, despite the fact that I have more respect for his skills than that. But if I were a suspicious man, I'd say he just fell in love with his tertiary characters and couldn't bear to push them off the stage. It's happened before to lesser writers. Writing an epic series like this across twenty years and keeping a grip on your story is hard. (Not that I've attempted anything on this scale, but writing one book without the middle bogging down into a chaotic mess is hard.)

Anyway, this is just one hack's swipe at how it might have been handled. Martin could have done it much better. I think it was a huge missed opportunity and the available evidence suggests that a series that could have been a masterpiece won't ever recover. I realize this is my subjective view, and others disagree, but I think it's a damn shame.

It's funny because not a whole lot happened in that arc anyway. Like, Jon counted some beef and made bad jokes in front of a banker from Braavos? I appreciate the slooooow build up to his assassination, but that storyline was chock full of the most transparent roadblocks to add some artificial tension, the whole Arya fake out (Oh, it's not Arya, it's Alys Karstark! Who?) and the "Tormund could attack any minute...any minute now!" thing being the main offenders. Still, this arc is Pulitzer prize material compared to Dany's, whose every chapter is exactly the same. 

But even so, I'll too take GRRM at his word that the gap didn't work with every character. Still, the structure and the split were only parts of a bigger problem, which is the need to stretch storylines into oblivion by piling on details. The gap would've been no use that way. Like, okay, Tyrion has been hiding at Illyrio's or hanging out with Aegon/the Golden Company for 5 years. Good. We still have to suffer through his endless travelogue, and he ends the book pretty much in the same place, at the eve of the Battle of Meereen, at best one or two chapters ahead. 

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1 hour ago, Greg B said:

I disagree with your assessment of the arc, at least as it was actually executed. I think it was positively butchered by the cutting and splicing that happened just before the rushed publication of the book.

Well, obviously ADWD is not the most popular books in the series, so most fans are on your side. Do I personally think it is George's greatest achievement? Yes.

This guy says it better than I could. George read the Meereenese Blot essays and agrees with them, btw.

1 hour ago, Greg B said:

I disagree with your assessment of the arc, at least as it was actually executed. I think it was positively butchered by the cutting and splicing that happened just before the rushed publication of the book.

Rushed? No, he spent 11 years writing it.

Lots of things got cut from ADWD, including the climaxes in Meereen and Winterfell. I don't dispute that.

But Jon Snow's arc? It ended exactly where it should have ended.

1 hour ago, Greg B said:

But let's accept that you're right, or at least that Martin shares your view. It's a story that deserves to be told. So tell it. Jon has been settling the wildlings in the Gift and preparing the Wall for the Others, maybe even doing some courageous rangings (e.g. Hardhome) that we didn't get to see anyway. He's established himself as a capable lord commander and maybe even a legendary ranger. Hell, Jon's first chapter could be a Hardhome-like evacuation, with him rescuing more of the Free Folk and coming face to face with the Others. How awesome would that be?

Jon is a terrible Lord Commander, arguable the worst in the history of the Night's Watch. Starting with the best of intentions he destroyed a thousands-year old institution and left the Wall defenseless in the face of an existential threat.

That's the point.

I'm not saying your version is bad, but that just isn't the story George is trying to tell. Ruling is hard, Jon couldn't do it.

1 hour ago, Greg B said:

Meanwhile, Stannis has been bogged down in a winter war against the Bolton's for five years, a situation that more closely approximates a real medieval war than this "eh, I've only got space for one real battle since I've opted to write this more-or-less in real-time" situation we're getting. Stannis is importing mercenaries from Essos, the Boltons are trying to hold together an uneasy North, some strongholds are taken and retaken, battles are won and lost, but no one has scored a decisive victory. This could be a whole new Robert's Rebellion worth of military history that Martin can dole out in bits and pieces as we learn how we've come to these dire straits.

I don't really have an opinion on this. The problem with a five year gap is less about Stannis than it is about Jon (and Dany and Cersei), I think.

1 hour ago, Greg B said:

Now when Jon fails it has a lot more punch, because he's demonstrated some success as a lord commander before he fails his test of character. And his vision for the wildlings and the role they could play in the realm has been proven not just to be folly, so it's a gut punch when it all crumbles around him.

If Jon was a successful Lord Commander, it wouldn't be the same arc at all.

Jon is thrust into a completely different role at the beginning of ADWD. For the first time in his life, he has to make command decisions--political decisions. And he just did not have the experience, judgement, or toughness to make the correct play. Look, I don't blame Jon. He tried really hard and probably did a better job than most. But the deck was absolutely stacked against him from the beginning. Even Tywin Lannister himself would probably be fucked.

Jon didn't have a chance.

Trying to save the wildings was his biggest mistake and it is what destroyed the Night's Watch.

1 hour ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

It's funny because not a whole lot happened in that arc anyway. Like, Jon counted some beef and made bad jokes in front of a banker from Braavos? I appreciate the slooooow build up to his assassination, but that storyline was chock full of the most transparent roadblocks to add some artificial tension, the whole Arya fake out (Oh, it's not Arya, it's Alys Karstark! Who?) and the "Tormund could attack any minute...any minute now!" thing being the main offenders. Still, this arc is Pulitzer prize material compared to Dany's, whose every chapter is exactly the same. 

Totally disagree. Jon's arc was not about being assassinated, it was about why he should be assassinated.

Everything that happened served to drive him down the path of self-destruction.

Bowen Marsh just put Jon out of his misery before it could get any worse.

1 hour ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

But even so, I'll too take GRRM at his word that the gap didn't work with every character. Still, the structure and the split were only parts of a bigger problem, which is the need to stretch storylines into oblivion by piling on details. The gap would've been no use that way. Like, okay, Tyrion has been hiding at Illyrio's or hanging out with Aegon/the Golden Company for 5 years. Good. We still have to suffer through his endless travelogue, and he ends the book pretty much in the same place, at the eve of the Battle of Meereen, at best one or two chapters ahead. 

I agree with this. I'm not a fan of the Tyrion chapters in ADWD. The last two books are bloated for sure. However, that's a separate discussion from the question of the five year gap.