Did Littlefinger want to betray Ned?

[Make Shadowbabies Not War]

Many people seem to see Littlefinger's betrayal of Ned as being his revenge for losing Cat, but I'm not so sure. It seems clear to me, that Baelish turned on Ned only when he realised that Ned was going to bring in Stannis, who would almost definitely revoke Littlefinger's seat on the Small Council. Whilst clearly a bit of a douche move, I don't think it is fir to say that Baelish planned to turn on Ned from the start, or at least not at that current place in time. Indeed, had Ned accepted his offer, Baelish would have a gullible reagent whom he had a decent amount of sway over.

 

So yeah, do you guys think that Lttlefinger would have turned on Ned regardless, or that it was him reacting to Ned's deision on Stannis?

[daccu65]

To be honest, I always thought it was nothing personal.  He wanted Joff to have him executed, so that any idea of a negotiated peace between the Lannisters and Starks would be out of the question.

 

[Jewel]

Anything Littlefinger does is for Littlefinger. He would've betrayed Ned all the same- because he knew this would create chaos and start what we now know as the war of the five kings. He wants power, and he got it.

[Jaak]

1 minute ago, Jewel said:

Anything Littlefinger does is for Littlefinger. He would've betrayed Ned all the same- because he knew this would create chaos and start what we now know as the war of the five kings. He wants power, and he got it.

And? Littlefinger can use chaos, sure, but he can use gullible tools, too. Given a choice between an useful fool and chaos, will Littlefinger pick chaos anyway?

[Protagoras]

He weighted for and against and saw a better reward by acting as he did. Ned does seem unlikely to reward a person like littlefinger well, especially since Ned might think he only do his job (As I recall, Ned gives no promise of reward if Littlefinger fix the gold cloaks for him). 

In addition, supporting Ned might end the war before it even began with Tywin alone and maybe giving Renly/Tyrells second thoughs about attacking a Ned-Stannis alliance. Supporting Lannisters on the other hand guarantees chaos (especially after Neds execution) and opportunities later on.

In general, "good people" need to start paying better. 

[Make Shadowbabies Not War]

39 minutes ago, Jaak said:

And? Littlefinger can use chaos, sure, but he can use gullible tools, too. Given a choice between an useful fool and chaos, will Littlefinger pick chaos anyway?

Exactly. I'm of the opinion that Littlefinger would have been more than happy to let Ned be the figurehead, as not only would it remove Cersei from power, it would replace her with Ned, who is gullible enough to let Littlefinger control him. However, when Ned turned down the offer of regent, he instead looked for an alternative, more long winded, method of gaining power.

[CJ McLannister]

If Ned could play Littlefinger's game, then there would be no need for betrayal, but that was never going to happen.  Even if Ned agreed to seize power in Joffrey's name, eventually he would have played his stupid honor card and his usefulness to Littlefinger would come to an end.

[Eden-Mackenzie]

I'm going to disagree and say yes, Littlefinger planned to betray Ned from the beginning, starting with the murder of Jon Arryn and Lysa's letter to Cat accusing the Lannisters. The use of his dagger in the attempt on Bran's life may have been a happy accident, but Littlefinger immediately turned that into yet another loggerhead between the Starks and Lannisters. Littlefinger knew what Jon had been researching and what he had discovered, and gave Ned just enough information to set him off on he same path, which led, just as it had for Jon, to his death. Remember too, Littlefinger was with Ned when he was confronted by Jaime in the streets outside the brothel - how would Jaime know Ned, honorable, faithful Ned, would be at a brothel? I do not believe Littlefinger ever hired the Gold Cloaks for Ned, he simply told Slynt the Hand was planning to seize control, we must stop him, have some gold for your troubles. 

Littlefinger never got over his humiliation in his duel with Brandon. Brandon's death brought him no closure as Brandon's brother stepped up to wed Cat in his stead, and from their first meeting Ned made it abundantly clear he had little to no regard for Littlefinger - I understand you knew my brother Brandon as well. The only real question as to Littlefinger's motives in my mind is whether he had hoped to win Cat back after Ned's death, or if time had embittered him towards Cat as well, and his goal had become her destruction as well. Yes, we have his Only Cat declaration to Lysa, but his words prior to those - I've only loved one woman, I promise you - do not definitively state he still loves a woman, just that he had in the past. 

[Lemore]

10 minutes ago, Eden-Mackenzie said:

I'm going to disagree and say yes, Littlefinger planned to betray Ned from the beginning, starting with the murder of Jon Arryn and Lysa's letter to Cat accusing the Lannisters. The use of his dagger in the attempt on Bran's life may have been a happy accident, but Littlefinger immediately turned that into yet another loggerhead between the Starks and Lannisters. Littlefinger knew what Jon had been researching and what he had discovered, and gave Ned just enough information to set him off on he same path, which led, just as it had for Jon, to his death. Remember too, Littlefinger was with Ned when he was confronted by Jaime in the streets outside the brothel - how would Jaime know Ned, honorable, faithful Ned, would be at a brothel? I do not believe Littlefinger ever hired the Gold Cloaks for Ned, he simply told Slynt the Hand was planning to seize control, we must stop him, have some gold for your troubles. 

Littlefinger never got over his humiliation in his duel with Brandon. Brandon's death brought him no closure as Brandon's brother stepped up to wed Cat in his stead, and from their first meeting Ned made it abundantly clear he had little to no regard for Littlefinger - I understand you knew my brother Brandon as well. The only real question as to Littlefinger's motives in my mind is whether he had hoped to win Cat back after Ned's death, or if time had embittered him towards Cat as well, and his goal had become her destruction as well. Yes, we have his Only Cat declaration to Lysa, but his words prior to those - I've only loved one woman, I promise you - do not definitively state he still loves a woman, just that he had in the past. 

Yup I agree with your POV here. LF had every intention of getting some sort of revenge on Ned imo 

He says it straight and I believe that's exactly what he meant too

 

Eddard Stark: Lord Baelish, perhaps I was wrong to distrust you. 
Petyr Baelish: Distrusting me was the wisest thing you've done since you climbed off your horse. 

[Make Shadowbabies Not War]

33 minutes ago, Eden-Mackenzie said:

I'm going to disagree and say yes, Littlefinger planned to betray Ned from the beginning, starting with the murder of Jon Arryn and Lysa's letter to Cat accusing the Lannisters. The use of his dagger in the attempt on Bran's life may have been a happy accident, but Littlefinger immediately turned that into yet another loggerhead between the Starks and Lannisters. Littlefinger knew what Jon had been researching and what he had discovered, and gave Ned just enough information to set him off on he same path, which led, just as it had for Jon, to his death. Remember too, Littlefinger was with Ned when he was confronted by Jaime in the streets outside the brothel - how would Jaime know Ned, honorable, faithful Ned, would be at a brothel? I do not believe Littlefinger ever hired the Gold Cloaks for Ned, he simply told Slynt the Hand was planning to seize control, we must stop him, have some gold for your troubles. 

Littlefinger never got over his humiliation in his duel with Brandon. Brandon's death brought him no closure as Brandon's brother stepped up to wed Cat in his stead, and from their first meeting Ned made it abundantly clear he had little to no regard for Littlefinger - I understand you knew my brother Brandon as well. The only real question as to Littlefinger's motives in my mind is whether he had hoped to win Cat back after Ned's death, or if time had embittered him towards Cat as well, and his goal had become her destruction as well. Yes, we have his Only Cat declaration to Lysa, but his words prior to those - I've only loved one woman, I promise you - do not definitively state he still loves a woman, just that he had in the past. 

You make some very good points here, and yes Littlefinger was certainly fuelling Stark/ Lannister rivalries. That said, even if the plan had gone the other way, and Cersei had been exiled, the war would probably have simply come from the other direction, with Tywin calling his banners. I can see your point that Littlefinger may have always been planning to betray Ned at some point, but I can't see that happening until Ned stopped being useful, as happened here. In short, Ned lived as long as he was worth more than the trouble he caused Baelish. As soon as it became clear he was too much of a hindrance, Littlefinger turned on him.

I agree that he may have enjoyed Ned's death, but in the moment he betrayed him, I feel it was more of a logical decision than a vengeance fuelled one.

[LokisRaider]

I am going to agree with the Littlefinger was eventually going to betray Ned, but circumstances forced his hand earlier. I think he would have preferred having someone like Ned who is more level headed to control because he can predict Ned's moves easier than someone like Cersei. And let's be honest Tywin would not stand for a slight against his house, especially one to this magnitude. And I remember in a Feast for Crows Littlefinger says to Sansa that he was expecting Cersei to mess up/go crazy/ruin the realm but just not so quickly and that caused him to accelerate his plans. So maybe controlling Ned for awhile than getting his revenge would have been preferred, but circumstances made him have to adapt.

Also, what would have happened if Sansa did not reveal what Ned was going to do to Cersei? I always wonder about this, because once Cersei knows she will obviously bring it up and demand the gold cloaks to be there to arrest Ned.

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

I don't think Littlefinger has anything against Ned - he didn't steal Catelyn from him, and Littlefinger doesn't show any other signs of blaming people for the actions of their relatives.  I haven't been convinced that Littlefinger is behind his execution, either…I don't think he trusted Joffrey enough, he had to know there would be outrage over the execution and what if Joffrey told Cersei or Tywin that Littlefinger convinced him it was a good idea, against their wishes?

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Eden-Mackenzie said:

I'm going to disagree and say yes, Littlefinger planned to betray Ned from the beginning, starting with the murder of Jon Arryn and Lysa's letter to Cat accusing the Lannisters. The use of his dagger in the attempt on Bran's life may have been a happy accident, but Littlefinger immediately turned that into yet another loggerhead between the Starks and Lannisters. Littlefinger knew what Jon had been researching and what he had discovered, and gave Ned just enough information to set him off on he same path, which led, just as it had for Jon, to his death. Remember too, Littlefinger was with Ned when he was confronted by Jaime in the streets outside the brothel - how would Jaime know Ned, honorable, faithful Ned, would be at a brothel? I do not believe Littlefinger ever hired the Gold Cloaks for Ned, he simply told Slynt the Hand was planning to seize control, we must stop him, have some gold for your troubles. 

Littlefinger never got over his humiliation in his duel with Brandon. Brandon's death brought him no closure as Brandon's brother stepped up to wed Cat in his stead, and from their first meeting Ned made it abundantly clear he had little to no regard for Littlefinger - I understand you knew my brother Brandon as well. The only real question as to Littlefinger's motives in my mind is whether he had hoped to win Cat back after Ned's death, or if time had embittered him towards Cat as well, and his goal had become her destruction as well. Yes, we have his Only Cat declaration to Lysa, but his words prior to those - I've only loved one woman, I promise you - do not definitively state he still loves a woman, just that he had in the past. 

This exactly. Ned was a dead man ever since that letter from Lysa, it was only a matter of time.

1 hour ago, Make Shadowbabies Not War said:

I agree that he may have enjoyed Ned's death, but in the moment he betrayed him, I feel it was more of a logical decision than a vengeance fuelled one.

Vengeance was behind the whole plan to bring down the house of Stark, the betrayal was merely the moment.

4 minutes ago, Melisandre's White Pubes said:

I don't think Littlefinger has anything against Ned - he didn't steal Catelyn from him, and Littlefinger doesn't show any other signs of blaming people for the actions of their relatives.

He didn't? Ned was the guy who married Cat after Brandon's death, when LF wrote her that letter she didn't read, which quite likely contained a marriage proposal from him. Of course Ned was the one who "stole" LF's Cat!

4 minutes ago, Melisandre's White Pubes said:

 I haven't been convinced that Littlefinger is behind his execution, either…I don't think he trusted Joffrey enough, he had to know there would be outrage over the execution and what if Joffrey told Cersei or Tywin that Littlefinger convinced him it was a good idea, against their wishes?

He certainly never said "execute Ned". What he did, though, was plant the idea in Joff's head, just as easily as he convinced him to have the jousting dwarves at his wedding.

If you are interested, Radio Westeros has two episodes focusing on Petyr Baelish, his means and his motivation. They did a pretty good job on his psychology and the like, as they always do :-)

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

Littlefinger had to know that Ned didn't choose to marry Catelyn, though.  Why would he blame Ned for an arranged marriage that happened the way it did due to circumstances beyond his control?  He didn't seem to blame Catelyn for marrying him.

[aryagonnakill#2]

LF had his eyes on Sansa from the start.  By removing Joff Sansa became open to wed again immediately, so I would agree with the OP.  Had Ned arrested everyone LF would have told Lysa to come back to KL so they could be together and she would have met with an unfortunate accident on the way or once she got there.  He would have told Ned he could convince he to come back to speak with Ned and get Robert appointed as Warden of the East.  With that his loose ends are tied up and he can ask for his reward of bringing the gold cloaks to his side being Sansa.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

22 minutes ago, Melisandre's White Pubes said:

Littlefinger had to know that Ned didn't choose to marry Catelyn, though.  Why would he blame Ned for an arranged marriage that happened the way it did due to circumstances beyond his control?  He didn't seem to blame Catelyn for marrying him.

Since Ned actually did marry Catelyn, then at some point he did choose to. 

And doing his level best to destroy Catelyn's family sure seems like blaming her for marrying Ned.

I doubt that the arranged marriage due to circumstances beyond Ned's control would matter very much to Littlefinger, though. He doesn't give others the benefit of the doubt. He doesn't give others the benefit of anything.

 

[delspark]

Never in my wildest dreams, did I think someone would give LF the benefit of a doubt. LF always wanted to remove Ned out of the picture of his future life with Catelyn. The only thing he miscalculated was Catelyn's death.

[Ygrain]

57 minutes ago, Melisandre's White Pubes said:

Littlefinger had to know that Ned didn't choose to marry Catelyn, though.  Why would he blame Ned for an arranged marriage that happened the way it did due to circumstances beyond his control?  He didn't seem to blame Catelyn for marrying him.

 

30 minutes ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Since Ned actually did marry Catelyn, then at some point he did choose to. 

And doing his level best to destroy Catelyn's family sure seems like blaming her for marrying Ned.

I doubt that the arranged marriage due to circumstances beyond Ned's control would matter very much to Littlefinger, though. He doesn't give others the benefit of the doubt. He doesn't give others the benefit of anything.

 

This. 

[zandru]

per Eden-Mackenzie: "The use of his [Littlefinger's] dagger in the attempt on Bran's life "

But it actually wasn't LIttlefinger's dagger. Apparently, Joffrey, operating on his own, took it from Robert Baratheon's vast collection of gift daggers. Littlefinger only said it was his dagger - which he "won from Tyrion Lannister" - in order to drag Tyrion and the Lannisters into it and cause strife. Much like the letter he had Lysa write, saying that "the Lannisters" had had Jon Arryn murdered, when it was Lysa herself who had administered the poison.

[Lord_Tyrell]

13 hours ago, Jaak said:

And? Littlefinger can use chaos, sure, but he can use gullible tools, too. Given a choice between an useful fool and chaos, will Littlefinger pick chaos anyway?

He's proven this by killing Joffrey. He wants to cause as much of it as possible in order to take down the system they represent. Ned sitting on the Iron Throne doesn't cause this, while killing Ned would.