The "Truth" About Dany

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

They didn't manage the same. They passed Jon as Ned's bastard son. Sure you could send the baby on a ship to the North, you could send a ship literally anywhere and it is arguably easier to do with a dark haired Jon.

A baby's hair colour has nothing to do with the difficulty of the passage. If a Targ baby was missing, it would be different - but since all the known Targ children were accounted for, travelling with one no-one had ever heard about poises no substantial difference. His mother was a Lyseni, and that's it.

2 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

So why did Ned take him in and claim he was his bastard?

Because, as LF demonstrates us with Alayne, no-one asks about bastards too much.

2 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Perhaps it makes more sense that Ashara would ask that her and Brandon's/Ned's child be raised among family in Winterfell.

And why would a mother send her baby to live on the other side of the continent? - Not to mention, why doesn't Ned ever think about Ashara or Brandon in any way? 

2 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Rather than Lyanna asking her half-Targaryen baby to be raised among family, well knowing Roberts views on Targs and putting her brother at risk.

Well, Ned was haunted by the promise and he slept poorly for 14 years, so she did ask him something difficult. But, she may not have asked him exactly this - she may have asked to keep Jon safe and secret. She was feverish and weak when she extracted the promise, after all, she may not have been lucid enough to think about details. Presenting Jon as his bastard may have been all Ned's idea, to be able to keep the baby close without raising any suspicion.

2 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

How did Ned find out about the Tower? I don't believe we know that. So unless you want to claim he stumbled across it randomly, Robert knew about it as he is one of the two people most invested in Lyannas well-being.

This is a logical fallacy. One person knowing in no way means that anyone else knew. Ned could have kept it secret from Robert because he had known that Lyanna wasn't kidnapped and that he would find her in circumstances that had better not become known. Or, Ned may have been tipped off about her location only after he left KL, or under condition that he wouldn't tell Robert. Lots of scenarios leaving Robert completely in the dark.

2 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

I am sorry, I thought you would not take me literally there. What I meant to say is they would recognize a silver haired baby with purple eyes. Yes someone already said you could cut the childs hair and put contact lenses in their eyes or whatever else cunning ideas people might have.

Well, newborns tend to have very little hair and it can easily be covered, and since they sleep or scream most of the time, there isn't much opportunity to examine their eye colour. Plus, they are common enough and of interest to basically no-one but their own family. Unless a child is known to be missing, which is not our case, though, no-one has a reason to look twice.

2 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

What I already said before is that Ned wouldn't necessarily come to that conclusion, and we know for a fact he went to Starfall, where Ashara could have came up with an idea to hide the child.

The journey to Starfall took days to weeks, during which Ned already had to have a plan how to travel with a baby and not raise suspicion (provided that Jon hadn't been spirited to Starfall already)

2 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Danny was a mystery for at least half of her life, until she left the house with the red door and had to slum it with Viserys. No one knows why or how all that happened, or how she was discovered, but at that point powerful people like Illyrio were already using her.

She wasn't. Varys was keeping tabs on her and Viserys' movements. It's not like they were a secret around the free cities, after all.

7 minutes ago, wordpuncher said:

I guess it demonstrates your sarcasm comprehension.

Look in the mirror, ser Applying-my-standards-to-a-work-of-fiction.

Plus, I somehow doubt that ways of arranging microclimate don't work in Westeros.

[wordpuncher]

3 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Look in the mirror, ser Applying-my-standards-to-a-work-of-fiction.

Plus, I somehow doubt that ways of arranging microclimate don't work in Westeros.

My point (from the beginning) was that we have no idea what does and does not work in Westeros. There's nothing in text that tells us whether someone figured out how to grow lemon trees in Braavos. Just because something is possible in our world, doesn't mean it's possible in that world. 

Sharna basically called Anguy an idiot for thinking lemon trees could exist as far North as the Riverlands. If Anguy had replied, "Yeah, microclimates, people grow shit everywhere, dummy," that would be a different story.

[MostlyMoody]

39 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

A baby's hair colour has nothing to do with the difficulty of the passage. If a Targ baby was missing, it would be different - but since all the known Targ children were accounted for, travelling with one no-one had ever heard about poises no substantial difference. His mother was a Lyseni, and that's it.

Not exactly sure what your point here is.

39 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Because, as LF demonstrates us with Alayne, no-one asks about bastards too much.

Yes, no one asks about bastards too much. But why did Ned take on the shame of fostering his bastard when he could've easily hid him from the world.

39 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

And why would a mother send her baby to live on the other side of the continent? - Not to mention, why doesn't Ned ever think about Ashara or Brandon in any way? 

To be raised among family. The thing is we don't know much about Ashara. She either killed herself in which case her and Brandons/Neds child would obviously fall into Ned's care, or she is alive and faked her death, which would mean she had some ulterior motives. I am sure Ned thinks about Ashara and Brandon same way he thinks about Lyanna - in passing, melancholic thought. But I think what you're alluding to is why doesn't he think about Jon's/Danny's parentage. Because that would kill the mystery spanning 5 books.

39 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Well, Ned was haunted by the promise and he slept poorly for 14 years, so she did ask him something difficult. But, she may not have asked him exactly this - she may have asked to keep Jon safe and secret. She was feverish and weak when she extracted the promise, after all, she may not have been lucid enough to think about details. Presenting Jon as his bastard may have been all Ned's idea, to be able to keep the baby close without raising any suspicion.

Alright here is where you R+L=J people flip flop like Mitt Romney. She either asked him to keep Jon safe and secret, then I say - In that case Ned succeeded. Then people say - no, no Ned promised her he would reveal his actual heritage to him at some point - which is a highly specific request from someone who would obviously know of Bobby B's motivations and would be a literary travesty if that was the secret promise he made. Which one is it?

39 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

This is a logical fallacy. One person knowing in no way means that anyone else knew. Ned could have kept it secret from Robert because he had known that Lyanna wasn't kidnapped and that he would find her in circumstances that had better not become known. Or, Ned may have been tipped off about her location only after he left KL, or under condition that he wouldn't tell Robert. Lots of scenarios leaving Robert completely in the dark.

I made an educated guess as to why Bobby would know about it, you can call it whatever fancy word you like xD. Yes he COULD've kept it secret IF he had known Lyanna wasn't kidnapped, IF Lyanna wasn't kidnapped, IF he liked Rhaegar more than Robert, IF he had the cojones and wit to hide all of it from Robert. You see how many hoops you have to jump to believe that? Him finding out where Lyanna was after KL is more likely. So what happened is he receives news from someone at Storm's End where he is ordered by Robert, alright. Then he gathers 6 men and heads south towards the Tower, alright. He sends his army back to KL or Winterfell, alright. No one in the world questions this highly irregular course of action, especially Robert who would be very interested as to why Ned didn't return after lifting the siege, receiving reports of him heading out south on a secret mission with a small host, and never asks him about it in the future. 

39 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Well, newborns tend to have very little hair and it can easily be covered, and since they sleep or scream most of the time, there isn't much opportunity to examine their eye colour. Plus, they are common enough and of interest to basically no-one but their own family. Unless a child is known to be missing, which is not our case, though, no-one has a reason to look twice.

Again, the same thing can be said about Jon. We are making a full circle again.

39 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

The journey to Starfall took days to weeks, during which Ned already had to have a plan how to travel with a baby and not raise suspicion (provided that Jon hadn't been spirited to Starfall already)

Ned is never described as a plotter or highly intelligent, and is trusting of others (Unless they are downright dishonorable like Jaime). He could have some plan but he obviously didn't execute it even if Jon was born at the tower, or maybe he did and the whole travel to Starfall to bring back Dawn, and coincidental Ashara's death is all a red-herring.

39 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

She wasn't. Varys was keeping tabs on her and Viserys' movements. It's not like they were a secret around the free cities, after all.

If that is the case we certainly don't get any info about Danny's early childhood from Varys, so I have to question as to how you come to that conclusion. Yes they weren't a secret around the free cities once they leave the house with the red door, where Danny spent her early childhood.

P.S. Let's chill on the aggression people. We are discussing books we all commonly love and enjoy theorizing about. 

[the trees have eyes]

19 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

< snip >

What do you mean why would he trust others with the secret? Who is that? Do you have some knowledge we don't? The only one supposedly knowing about this is Howland Reed who was there, so Ned didn't really have a choice. Then he went to Starfall, the only place or the closest place where he knew he could either hide the baby, or knew he could trust Ashara due to their history (whatever that was). Just about anyone else would be likely to rat out the Targaryen heir to Bobby B. Yeah, I agree. I don't see Danny as Jon's sister either.

At the same time Oberyn was trying to raise Dorne to avenge his sister. We also know that Ashara was close to Elia and maybe Rhaegar by proxy. Ned had to trust someone, because he had Rhaegar's and Lyannas child on his hands and his best friend was dead set on killing all Targs. He trusted Howland by necessity, so he could've got him to go into exile with the child. Maybe Howland didn't want to forsake his life like that, or maybe, which is slightly tangential on my part, they sent Willam Dustin on this duty. Again you are assuming Viserys knew who Danny was, which is what I thought until I was disproved with some quotes. Based on that and the fact that I belive Viserys doesn't have the wits to pull so much wool over someones eyes, the whole writing to Ned thing doesn't make sense.

Ned trusts no one with the secret of who Jon is.  He ensures secrecy by keeping the child with him and forbidding his new wife to ask anything about him or his household servants to gossip and sepeculate (at least openly of course).  But he hands this other child over to others who ship her round the continent and assert her to be Aerys's daughter thus making her a target for assassination?  This rings hollow to me.  Why go to such lengths to protect one but wash his hands of the other?

Rhaegar shamed Elia by marrying / eloping with Lyanna.  There is no guarantee any child of theirs would be welcome or protected by the Martells.  The marriage pact the Martells made with Darry was for Arianne to marry Viserys when they both came of age: there is no mention or hint of Dany anywhere in their plans until Viserys came a cropper and Quentyn was hurriedly told to forget about the Ironwood girl he was smitten with and travel half the world to try and shore up the alliance with Dany.  There is also no hint that any of the Dornish, including Quentyn, think she is anyone other than Aerys's daughter, not one hint that they consider she is Rhaegar's by Lyanna.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

< snip >

One of the men who "died" at the Tower of Joy... But for some reason Ned didn't bring the bones with him... This is a clear oddity for which I haven't heard a good explanation... In fact it's brought up again in Dance that Lady Dustin was pissed Ned brought the red stallion home but not her husbands bones... It is just another discrepancy to add to the growing pile of evidence

Ned and Howland raised 8 cairns for the 3 KG and their 5 companions who died.  Ned brought Lyanna's bones home only.  Why does Dustin get such special attention?  Perhaps if we met Ethan Glover's parents or Lady Wull they would be bitter too.  And I assume he brought the stallion home because it was alive!  Maybe he brought Martin Cassell's mount back to WF too.

There is no discrepancy here over Dustin's bones.  They were treated the same as everyone elses's - bar Ned's beloved sister's.

17 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

I've never really even thought about this, but off the top of my head here are the problems with sending her to the neck.

Howland or Ned would have to travel half the continent north avoiding literally everyone. I am sure Bobby B would be interested in finding out what happened at the Tower asap. It is much safer and easier to let her live in secrecy in Dorne somewhere, since there are more people to trust with a Targaryen child (Hence the theories of her childhood house being in Dorne). Obviously something went wrong and she ended up in Essos, we get some vague passages of Danny being kicked out of the house with the red door after Darry dies, not sure what happened there in any case. Oh, great news everyone! Ned is alive because he headed home to Winterfell and didn't get beheaded in KL. What?

This is one of the big holes for the Dany in Dorne theory.  Even if you ignore the pregnanat Rhaella giving birth on Dragonstone and Daenerys Stormborn evidence as "unproven" you have to explain why she and Viserys were kicked out of Dorne.

The marriage pact between Viserys and Arianne is of course still in play (Arianne being offered miserably unsuitable matches to keep her free) so why would Doran risk this by kicking Viserys out to die the beggar king on the Dothraki Sea?  After Darry's death they were evicted from the house with the red door and Rahella's jewels were stolen by the servants: so by who if this was in Dorne?  Why did their benefactors turn on them after protecting them for years and throw them out?  "Something went wrong" works in Braavos when a new Sealord comes into office without an inclination to meddle in Westerosi politics like his predecessor.  It doesn't work in Dorne with Oberyn and Doran protecting them.

17 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

< snip >

I'm suggesting that some time, roughly five years into Dany's life she changed hands... She left the house with the red door. It's from this point she has memories of running from city to city (supposedly chased by the Usurpers hired knives, but we know that's a lie) and Illyrio probably had a hand in it since it took him years to plan the wedding (about to happen as the series starts).

Now she and we are led to believe this house with the red door was in Braavos, but there are a number of reasons to believe this is not so, and a number of quotes that connect the house with the red door to Westeros a land Dany has supposedly never been to, but these quotes also relate it to "home".

Is it really so crazy to think there is another subplot going on?

But there really is no reason to think this happened.  You can argue that she has no memories from before about aged 4/5 but who does?  I don't but I have no reason to believe I changed hands. 

Also why do you say it is a lie that they were fleeing assassins?  We know that Jon Arryn talked Robert out of sending assassins but that doesn't mean Viserys knew that or that he did not have good reason to fear an assassin might be sent at some point.  Indeed Robert does send assassins after Dany later in AGOT.  So Viserys may be afraid and a little paranoid but he actually has pretty good reason to be.  Calling it a lie seems to dismiss all that and try a little too hard to paint a picture of Dany herself being fooled into thinking that she and Viserys have always been on the run when in fact she lived in Dorne and never met him before last Tuesday. 

IMO The House with the red door was in Braavos, she and Viserys lived there with Willem Darry under the protection of the Sealord, Oberyn visited to form a marriage alliance and had the Sealord witness the pact, when the Sealord died they lost their protector and were robbed and thrown out, they subsequently wandered the Free Cities (which doesn't have to mean constant travel, just moving every few years) until we meet them in Pentos in AGOT.

17 hours ago, wordpuncher said:

It doesn't have to be a POV character providing sworn testimony. It just has to be SOMEONE WHO ACTUALLY SAW SOMETHING HAPPEN. We do not have that. The only record of her birth comes from her. It not like I'm ignoring a short-form birth certificate. I just want someone who was a lucid adult at the time of Dany's birth and was there when it happened. Otherwise, it's open to interpretation. The salient points of Dany's birth are referenced by people who are not primary sources. There are people all over Westeros who tell us that Tyrion poisoned Joffrey. They have no idea what the truth is about that.

I would invite you to consider how the author conveys information. It's amazing to me how people will believe that this story holds some secrets, but not others. Do you believe R+L=J? Because by your logic, everyone KNOWS that Jon is Ned's bastard son. GRRM is very careful with his words. He distributes information as needed and leaves himself room to expand or change the story in some places while making it air-tight in others. Dany's background is not airtight.

Am I like this in real life? Well, I'm a lawyer and a journalist. So, yes, I care about the difference between good information and bad information. When the only source information concerning a person's birth is THAT PERSON, you have a weak source. 

Finally: The name "Stormborn" is about as useful as the name Aegon VI. Maybe it's true. Maybe it's a name that was contrived to fit a story.

Well I am glad you are not a birther!  I was beginning to worry.  We have no one recounting the birth.  But then how many characters do we have birth stories with lucid adult witnesses for?  You were also pretty hot on the point that Jaime did not see Aerys and Rhaella actually having sex and introduced the argument that Rhaella was known to stray so if you aren't happy about the paternity why bother so much with a witness to the birth?  I think you may very well get to the end of the series without what you consider adequate proof being given to you.  Perhaps arguments about whether Tyrion, Jaime and Cersei are or aren't Aerys's or whether Dany is or isn't will still be bothering some people for ever.

I don't intend to scour the 5 books for characters referencing the circumstances of her birth but I do recollect they are there and that she is not the only person to provide a record of her birth.  For whatever that's worth anyway.  Her chapters are not the only source of information about her parentage or birth - why do you keep stating as a fact that they are?

About believing secrets.  Yes, GRRM is a very clever author and he gives us this central mystery in AGOT with Ned running around looking for clues to Jon Arryn's death only to reveal the shocking truth of the Lannister twincest and the illegitimacy of Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen.  That's all in black and white, though beautifully unfurled, but menawhile there are some clues that something is odd about his bastard Jon.  They are sublte but they are there right from the start and as one more piece of information after another is dropped in (the fever dream about the ToJ, the tale of the KotLT, the symbolism of the blue rose growing from a wall of ice) it begins to add up.  It isn't actually obvious to most readers but with re-reads and social media it can leap into focus.  There really isn't any equivalent situation with Dany, people just like clever, elaborate and subversive theories.  But I think GRRM is more than a one trick pony and that he won't overuse this character identity rug pull.

16 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

If Ned's promise was to keep Lyanna's kids safe (read from Robert) then it might have made sense to not take the Targ one home with him... 

Given that afterwards we have missing bones that Ned inexplicably didnt bring home...

A trip to Starfall and Ashara disappearing into the sea.

And I'll add he just recieved a sterling recommendation from some pretty honorable knights about Ser Willem being "a good man and true", maybe he thought there was a better option.

Did Ned never think of Dany, because here is where we get the description of Elia and her children getting killed right next to Ned arguing with his boyhood friend not to kill Dany? (PS. I know Ned is the perfect honorable man... but do remember he was one of those that started the rebellion against Aerys in the first place, because The Mad King killed his dad and brother in gruesome fashion.)

Ned did not feign surprise; Robert's hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

This time, Ned resolved to keep his temper. "Your Grace, the girl is scarcely more than a child. You are no Tywin Lannister, to slaughter innocents." It was said that Rhaegar's little girl had cried as they dragged her from beneath her bed to face the swords. The boy had been no more than a babe in arms, yet Lord Tywin's soldiers had torn him from his mother's breast and dashed his head against a wall.

What about this, I know you focus on "the boy" but:

Yet last night he had dreamt of Rhaegar's children. Lord Tywin had laid the bodies beneath the Iron Throne, wrapped in the crimson cloaks of his house guard. That was clever of him; the blood did not show so badly against the red cloth. The little princess had been barefoot, still dressed in her bed gown, and the boy … the boy …

Ned could not let that happen again. The realm could not withstand a second mad king, another dance of blood and vengeance. He must find some way to save the children.

Now you probably recall these quotes about Ned's promise, then later about broken promises:

"I will," Ned had promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

But notice that this happens in between, and isn't it remarkable that at this important juncture saving Dany is such a priority:

"I know the lad well," said Varys. "A stalwart boy, Ser Kevan Lannister's son, nephew to Lord Tywin and cousin to the queen. I hope the dear sweet lad does not blame himself. Children are so vulnerable in the innocence of their youth, how well do I remember."

Certainly Varys had once been young. Ned doubted that he had ever been innocent. "You mention children. Robert had a change of heart concerning Daenerys Targaryen. Whatever arrangements you made, I want unmade. At once."

"Alas," said Varys. "At once may be too late. I fear those birds have flown. But I shall do what I can, my lord. With your leave." He bowed and vanished down the steps, his soft-soled slippers whispering against the stone as he made his descent.

I'm suggesting that this is why it's only afterwards we see Ned lamenting "broken" promises in his cell waiting to die:

When he thought of his daughters, he would have wept gladly, but the tears would not come. Even now, he was a Stark of Winterfell, and his grief and his rage froze hard inside him.

When he kept very still, his leg did not hurt so much, so he did his best to lie unmoving. For how long he could not say. There was no sun and no moon. He could not see to mark the walls. Ned closed his eyes and opened them; it made no difference. He slept and woke and slept again. He did not know which was more painful, the waking or the sleeping. When he slept, he dreamed: dark disturbing dreams of blood and broken promises.

But we don't have missing bones.  Five of Ned's companions died and he raised cairns for them all.  He only took Lyanna's bones home.  Am i missing something here (and I mean about the bones and cairns not Barbery's speech to Theon)?

I will grant that Ashara's suicide struck me as a bit off when I read it and I still think that it wasn't adequately explained.  This is from a male point of view however and post-partum psychosis or the equvalent following a miscarriage may have played a part (please forgive any incorrect use of terms or diagnoses here, I am well outside my experience).  Nonetheless it does seem fishy and gets me wondering about Ashara.  That said it doesn't get me wondering about Dany's birth or backstory which I find to work just fine.

The way you are interpreting Ned's thoughts to imply guilt at not looking after Lyanna's children adequately, in effect breaking his promise by sending one over the sea and into danger, is very interesting but it could equally apply to Jon who he allowed to go to The Wall.  He was angry with Catelyn over it and may now regret it given he has lost the ability to look after his own children at all, the same way he lost any real ability to look after Jon when he joined the NW.  Equally the crushing realisation that he cannot protect his daughters may have brought back memories of how desparate Lyanna was that he keep her son safe, the fear gripping him over what Varys / Joffrey may do to his girls evoking the fear he saw in Lyanna's eyes until he promised to keep Jon safe and hidden.  He knows how that feels and he is sorry he let Jon down.

The way you highlight Ned ordering Varys to rescind the assassination of Dany is interesting too.  It's almost the first thing he does - which would play neatly into your argument that he is urgently moving to protect Lyanna's daughter.  But he does bugger all once Varys shrugs his shoulders which weakens the argument a great deal.  Send aother more urgent raven surely?  Now you could also say that Ned arguing with Robert over the assassination order and resigning the Handship was also secretly down to his attempt to protect Lyanna's daughter.  But it's actually an echo of their falling out over Aegon and Rahenys's deaths all those years ago.  No one is asserting Aegon and Rhaenys were Lyanna's children yet Ned cared enough to row and fall out with Robert.  So it looks more like Ned just being Ned, first when he resigns the Office of Hand he never wanted anyway and second when he takes the first opportunity he has to rescind the order to murder a pregnant teenage girl. Qintessential Ned imo.

15 hours ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Alright I am going to assume/guess some things with no actual evidence, but if I am right the newborn Danny was in the care of Willam Dustin for a while living somewhere in Dorne, having possibly Ashara, Oberyn and Doran as co-conspirators (i.e. the two of the most elusive and cunning men in Westeros at the time). Oberyn obviously had a spat of revenge at some point, threatening to raise Dorne, but nothing came of it in the end.

We may never agree on this, but I think hiding a Targaryen child would be much safer within Targaryen loyalist Dorne, given you contact the right people (Martells). As opposed to Ned and Howland hatching a scheme on their own, sending Howland on a dangerous journey across the continent, hoping that no one will recognize either him or the baby. Lets assume Ned is even capable of scheming for a second, maybe it was Howland who came up with the idea, that seems like the most dangerous and risky plan, given the alternative. What can Ned do as the only one who knows what's up,Howland is god knows where and Ashara presumably dead. If he was Varys or Littlefinger he could manipulate others to his own ends, but he isn't. So the only thing he can do is stay in King's Landing despite the danger to himself and his family and try his best at damage control.

I am glad you remembered what happens in the books more accurately, even if you do try to twist it to fit your argument. Nice job. You could also argue that Ned is a shitty father, given what happens to his children.

But there is no mystery over Willam Dustin's missing bones.  He is buried with Ethan Glover, Martin Cassell, Theo Wull and Mark Ryswell at the ToJ.  This is a classic example of people wanting something to be true (Dany not being Dany) and either misinterpreting or inventing facts and discounting other inconvenient facts to create an alternate version of events.  The only thing we know about Willam Dustin is that he died at the ToJ and is buried there.  If you want Dany to be someone else you need someone other than this dead guy as her protector for five years.

1 hour ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

< snip >

Danny was a mystery for at least half of her life, until she left the house with the red door and had to slum it with Viserys. No one knows why or how all that happened, or how she was discovered, but at that point powerful people like Illyrio were already using her.

But she wasn't a mystery at all.  She was living with Viserys and Ser Willem Darry under the protection of the Sealord Of Braavos until Braavosi politics changed and she and Viserys were evicted.  Given Jon Arryn had to dissuade Robert from sending assassins after them it's entirely likely that they always knew where Viserys and Dany were.

1 hour ago, Stark Jon Targaryen said:

The amount of times Rhaegar  is mentioned in Dany chapters is secondary in my mind to the many visions she has, being the face behind his helmet, seeing herself fighting as Rhaegar, the vision of him holding a baby(Jon) IMO.

 

Your inference being that she has visions about him because he is her father rather than because he is the one who believed in the prophecy and set about trying to make it come about.  Aren't the visions more likely infodumps for her on TPTWP and him handing on the baton to her of carrying on his work?

The baby is almost certainly Aegon and the woman in the bed Elia.  "There must be one more" after Aegon after all and that points to Jon.  If you want it to mean there must be one more after Jon (and you believe that to be Dany) then doesn't the dragon have four heads not three?

[MostlyMoody]

44 minutes ago, wordpuncher said:

My point (from the beginning) was that we have no idea what does and does not work in Westeros. There's nothing in text that tells us whether someone figured out how to grow lemon trees in Braavos. Just because something is possible in our world, doesn't mean it's possible in that world. 

Sharna basically called Anguy an idiot for thinking lemon trees could exist as far North as the Riverlands. If Anguy had replied, "Yeah, microclimates, people grow shit everywhere, dummy," that would be a different story.

I agree with you on the whole Lemontree thing, but you are being way too pedantic about it.

The main reason I think the Lemontree wasn't in Braavos as is claimed, is because it could've been anything else but a bloody Lemontree. It could've been just a Red Door, just carved animal faces. Could be a red herring, but that's going to be a one way argument until it is confirmed.

[wordpuncher]

Just now, the trees have eyes said:

Well I am glad you are not a birther!  I was beginning to worry.  We have no one recounting the birth.  But then how many characters do we have birth stories with lucid adult witnesses for?  You were also pretty hot on the point that Jaime did not see Aerys and Rhaella actually having sex and introduced the argument that Rhaella was known to stray so if you aren't happy about the paternity why bother so much with a witness to the birth?  I think you may very well get to the end of the series without what you consider adequate proof being given to you.  Perhaps arguments about whether Tyrion, Jaime and Cersei are or aren't Aerys's or whether Dany is or isn't will still be bothering some people for ever.

I don't intend to scour the 5 books for characters referencing the circumstances of her birth but I do recollect they are there and that she is not the only person to provide a record of her birth.  For whatever that's worth anyway.  Her chapters are not the only source of information about her parentage or birth - why do you keep stating as a fact that they are?

If those references are there, I haven't been able to find them.

I think one thing that some people are misreading here is the idea that I have a theory or some conclusion I'm trying to support. On the contrary, I'm just trying to identify points where the evidence is weak and/or open to interpretation. As much as I'm trying to disprove Dany's birth on Dragonstone, I'm also trying to prove it. I haven't succeeded at definitively proving either, which makes it a very interesting area for discussion as far as I'm concerned. 

[IceFire125]

23 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Alright here is where you R+L=J people flip flop like Mitt Romney. She either asked him to keep Jon safe and secret, then I say - In that case Ned succeeded. Then people say - no, no Ned promised her he would reveal his actual heritage to him at some point - which is a highly specific request from someone who would obviously know of Bobby B's motivations and would be a literary travesty if that was the secret promise he made. Which one is it?

I think GRRM revealed it to us through Jon telling Gilly about the promis(es) that Ned kept and failed to keep...

“Your son has no king’s blood. Melisandre gains nothing by giving him to the fire. Stannis wants the free folk to fight for him, he will not burn an innocent without good cause. Your boy will be safe. I will find a wet nurse for him and he’ll be raised here at Winterfell Castle Black under my protection. He’ll learn to hunt and ride, to fight with sword and axe and bow. I’ll even see that he is taught to read and write.” Sam would like that. “And when he is old enough, he will learn the truth of who he is. He’ll be free to seek you out if that is what he wants.”

[MostlyMoody]

11 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

Ned trusts no one with the secret of who Jon is.  He ensures secrecy by keeping the child with him and forbidding his new wife to ask anything about him or his household servants to gossip and sepeculate (at least openly of course).  But he hands this other child over to others who ship her round the continent and assert her to be Aerys's daughter thus making her a target for assassination?  This rings hollow to me.  Why go to such lengths to protect one but wash his hands of the other?

Rhaegar shamed Elia by marrying / eloping with Lyanna.  There is no guarantee any child of theirs would be welcome or protected by the Martells.  The marriage pact the Martells made with Darry was for Arianne to marry Viserys when they both came of age: there is no mention or hint of Dany anywhere in their plans until Viserys came a cropper and Quentyn was hurriedly told to forget about the Ironwood girl he was smitten with and travel half the world to try and shore up the alliance with Dany.  There is also no hint that any of the Dornish, including Quentyn, think she is anyone other than Aerys's daughter, not one hint that they consider she is Rhaegar's by Lyanna.

True enough we don't know why Ned prevents people from talking about Jon's parentage. He could've made up a lie about who Ned slept with, he could've made up an imaginary woman named Jenny or whatever, so there is obviously a reason he doesn't even do that. It actually goes against the notion of R+L=J, because if that is the case, there is no reason of not saying the presumed Ned's lover's name. If Jon is Ashara's and Brandon's/Ned's son, there are implications there that would warrant the secrecy.

11 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

This is one of the big holes for the Dany in Dorne theory.  Even if you ignore the pregnanat Rhaella giving birth on Dragonstone and Daenerys Stormborn evidence as "unproven" you have to explain why she and Viserys were kicked out of Dorne.

The marriage pact between Viserys and Arianne is of course still in play (Arianne being offered miserably unsuitable matches to keep her free) so why would Doran risk this by kicking Viserys out to die the beggar king on the Dothraki Sea?  After Darry's death they were evicted from the house with the red door and Rahella's jewels were stolen by the servants: so by who if this was in Dorne?  Why did their benefactors turn on them after protecting them for years and throw them out?  "Something went wrong" works in Braavos when a new Sealord comes into office without an inclination to meddle in Westerosi politics like his predecessor.  It doesn't work in Dorne with Oberyn and Doran protecting them.

They weren't 'kicked out of Dorne'. What does that even mean? I don't know why they left, but obviously there was a reason in either case. If she was kicked out of the House in Braavos, then you also have to explain why that happened. It goes both ways.

There are tons of shit we don't know about their travels in Essos. Why did when Darry die, they were kicked out of presumably a rich mans house (Lemon tree, huge rooms, carved animals) and started slumming it? How and why did they come under Illyrios wing is also unknown in either scenario. So that is kind of a non-argument. Yeah, maybe I am wrong about Martell's involvement, but it still leaves many holes in what we presume to be canon Danny's childhood. Yes if there was a new Sealord you are right, but we don't know that.

12 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

But there is no mystery over Willam Dustin's missing bones.  He is buried with Ethan Glover, Martin Cassell, Theo Wull and Mark Ryswell at the ToJ.  This is a classic example of people wanting something to be true (Dany not being Dany) and either misinterpreting or inventing facts and discounting other inconvenient facts to create an alternate version of events.  The only thing we know about Willam Dustin is that he died at the ToJ and is buried there.  If you want Dany to be someone else you need someone other than this dead guy as her protector for five years.

Could you give me a quote of that? I will assume you are right, in which case that is Ned's word, and if the R+L=D is indeed true he would have to lie about it. And again, the whole Dustin thing is a tangent on my part that isn't really a big deal, I just like that little idea. Willem Darry would be her protector in that case, he was already caring for Viserys.

12 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

But she wasn't a mystery at all.  She was living with Viserys and Ser Willem Darry under the protection of the Sealord Of Braavos until Braavosi politics changed and she and Viserys were evicted.  Given Jon Arryn had to dissuade Robert from sending assassins after them it's entirely likely that they always knew where Viserys and Dany were.

According to Danny and Viserys.

Jon Arryn did dissuade Robert, but who would actually know where Danny and Viserys were? The Spymaster of King's Landing.

[MostlyMoody]

24 minutes ago, IceFire125 said:

I think GRRM revealed it to us through Jon telling Gilly about the promis(es) that Ned kept and failed to keep...

“Your son has no king’s blood. Melisandre gains nothing by giving him to the fire. Stannis wants the free folk to fight for him, he will not burn an innocent without good cause. Your boy will be safe. I will find a wet nurse for him and he’ll be raised here at Winterfell Castle Black under my protection. He’ll learn to hunt and ride, to fight with sword and axe and bow. I’ll even see that he is taught to read and write.” Sam would like that. “And when he is old enough, he will learn the truth of who he is. He’ll be free to seek you out if that is what he wants.”

I see the parallel, but the passage is just as prosaic and works just as well if his parents are Ashara + Brandon/Ned.

Also note the "Your son has no King's Blood", which works as a parallel even better.

[IceFire125]

2 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

I see the parallel, but the passage is just as prosaic and works just as well if his parents are Ashara + Brandon/Ned.

Also note the "Your son has no King's Blood", which works as a parallel even better.

And that Jon telling Arya overlooking the courtyard, that "bastards are to not spar with princes, only trueborn swords are allowed to bruise a prince" is also a significant point. 

Don't be stuck in just looking at it selectively.  GRRM gave us hints of R+L= legitimate J, through out the current 5 books.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

1 hour ago, Edd Tollett's One Vote said:

So... The argument now is that Lyanna had Jon and then Dany 8-9 months after? Okay. I don't know how long she was missing for but I'll assume it's possible sure. Now: What does this add to the story? And why bother showing us that Rhaegar specifically wanted three kids? 

I don't think I can speak for everyone, but my theory is that Jon and Dany were both born at the Tower of Joy, closer to 8-9 months than a year apart...

I find this is actually much easier to fit on a timeline of Robert rebellion than explaining how Rhaella can get impregnated on the night Chelsted burned, with Jon Darry standing outside the door with Jaime... Before the battle of the Trident... And still have Jon born at the ToJ least 8-9 months before her baby...

I hate the question "what does it add to the story?", but mostly because it seems pretty easy to answer, plot... I mean what did a fake Sansa or Aegon add? Or Jon and Aemon plotting a baby swap? Or all of Quentin's chapters?

But specifically, A reason to reconcile the Starks and Targs... Oh and it gives Jon an "old" sister named Arya and a little sister named Daenerys (you know like Aegon had Visenya and Rhaenys). It gives a reason for Ned to think once of promises and what he's done to keep them, and later of broken promises. It lets Dany not be the Mad King's daughter. It builds up a potential love interest between Jon and Dany in many reader's minds, only for them to be siblings. 

You know, that thing called plot, the reason to read fiction...

As to Rhaegar wanting three kids... Do you mean the House of the Undying? Where Dany sees a vision she is certain is Rhaegar? Where we hear the title of the series, a song of ice and fire? And HE LOOKS RIGHT AT DANY?

Wait, I assume you think he's talking about Jon... Why?

 

[MostlyMoody]

24 minutes ago, IceFire125 said:

And that Jon telling Arya overlooking the courtyard, that "bastards are to not spar with princes, only trueborn swords are allowed to bruise a prince" is also a significant point. 

Don't be stuck in just looking at it selectively.  GRRM gave us hints of R+L= legitimate J, through out the current 5 books.

What the hell man? I just gave you a bit from the quote you provided that shifted it in my favor, and the whole thing still works, how is that selective looking?

Yeah you're right that would be kind of, sort of foreshadowing, except Jon wouldn't be a prince. He would be a royal bastard.

[IceFire125]

6 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

What the hell man? I just gave you a bit from the quote you provided that shifted it in my favor, and the whole thing still works, how is that selective looking?

Yeah you're right that would be kind of, sort of foreshadowing, except Jon isn't a prince. He is a royal bastard.

So a royal bastard shouldn't spar with bastards (Joff/Tommen)?? Doesn't make sense.  

Only "trueborn swords" should be able to bruise a prince (Jon).  The scene is what GRRM described it as such.  If Jon were to spar with Joffrey or Tommen, it would go against this statement.  But Jon is not... thus the statement by Jon, who he sees himself as a bastard, makes the dramatic irony.

Well, we believe what we want to believe, I suppose.  

[Ygrain]

51 minutes ago, wordpuncher said:

My point (from the beginning) was that we have no idea what does and does not work in Westeros. There's nothing in text that tells us whether someone figured out how to grow lemon trees in Braavos. Just because something is possible in our world, doesn't mean it's possible in that world. 

Sharna basically called Anguy an idiot for thinking lemon trees could exist as far North as the Riverlands. If Anguy had replied, "Yeah, microclimates, people grow shit everywhere, dummy," that would be a different story.

And a common nobody like Aharna or Anguy would know because...?

Raptors don't normally live in Braavos, but the Sealord has one in his menagerie. Glasshouses aren't common, yet Winterfell has them. Figuring out how microclimate works is no nuclear science and can be done even without knowing the term. 

Besides, with the exception of the superlong seasons, the weather in Westeros seems to work pretty normally.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Not exactly sure what your point here is.

That hiding a baby's identity or travelling with one without raising suspicion is not as difficult as you make it sound.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Yes, no one asks about bastards too much. But why did Ned take on the shame of fostering his bastard when he could've easily hid him from the world.

If he hid him, he wouldn't be able to keep an eye on him.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

To be raised among family. The thing is we don't know much about Ashara. She either killed herself in which case her and Brandons/Neds child would obviously fall into Ned's care, or she is alive and faked her death, which would mean she had some ulterior motives.

Obviously? Why obviously? Why not leave the baby in Dorne where bastards enjoy a much better status? Or why should the Starks have any precedence over the Daynes in custody of a Dayne-Stark baby?

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

I am sure Ned thinks about Ashara and Brandon same way he thinks about Lyanna - in passing, melancholic thought.

Oh? And where are those thoughts? Quotes, please?

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

But I think what you're alluding to is why doesn't he think about Jon's/Danny's parentage. Because that would kill the mystery spanning 5 books.

You do realize that it was Ned's thoughts which revealed RLJ, right? So, the same way RLJ was hidden in the plain sight of Ned's PoV, RLD should have, as well. It isn't.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Alright here is where you R+L=J people flip flop like Mitt Romney. She either asked him to keep Jon safe and secret, then I say - In that case Ned succeeded. Then people say - no, no Ned promised her he would reveal his actual heritage to him at some point - which is a highly specific request from someone who would obviously know of Bobby B's motivations and would be a literary travesty if that was the secret promise he made. Which one is it?

Ned made her promiseS. As in, more than one thing, that's for one. Plus, he apparently needed to tell Jon something - something he never felt the need to before he found himself in the Black Cells where his life expectancy dropped dramatically. Only then he wished to sit down with Jon and tell him something, and that something was important that he attempted to communicate it even from beyond the grave, in Bran's dream about Winterfell crypts.

Curiously, it is also in the Black Cells that Ned thinks about broken promises for the first time.

 

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

I made an educated guess as to why Bobby would know about it, you can call it whatever fancy word you like xD.

You made an educated guess why Robert would have wanted to know. Wanting =/= knowing.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Yes he COULD've kept it secret IF he had known Lyanna wasn't kidnapped,

His choice of companions and their number imply that he wasn't completely in the dark about the circumstances in which he might find Lyanna.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

IF Lyanna wasn't kidnapped,

No-one but Starks and Robert calls it abduction, and Lyanna wouldn't be holding onto flowers from her abductor on her deathbed. Among other things.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

IF he liked Rhaegar more than Robert,

No reason to like Rhaegar, it is enough to love Lyanna dearly and not want her honour compromised. It's not like he told Robert about her wolf blood which led her to an early grave, or about the promises other than bury her at Winterfell, right?

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

IF he had the cojones and wit to hide all of it from Robert.

He lied Robert right into his face when he claimed that Cat abducted Tyrion at his order, and as for wit... he did manage to pass Jon off as his own son for fourteen years.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

You see how many hoops you have to jump to believe that?

The hoops are merely a product of you not knowing the books well enough.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Him finding out where Lyanna was after KL is more likely.

I didn't say he had known where Lyanna was from the get-go, I said that he might have known that she had gone willingly.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

So what happened is he receives news from someone at Storm's End where he is ordered by Robert, alright. Then he gathers 6 men and heads south towards the Tower, alright. He sends his army back to KL or Winterfell, alright. No one in the world questions this highly irregular course of action, especially Robert who would be very interested as to why Ned didn't return after lifting the siege, ,

Ned is the second-in-command, and there is no-one to question his decisions at SE because Robert is not there, and when he learns, he has no way to catch up with Ned. Westeros is big, and there are no cellphones. 

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

receiving reports of him heading out south on a secret mission with a small host, and never asks him about it in the future. 

Ah, BS. Ned had left in anger after the Sack and it took Lyanna's death to reconcile him with Robert, so they apparently talked after that, and they talked about Lyanna's death, as well, because in the Winterfell crypts, Ned reminds Robert that he was with Lyanna as she lay dying.

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Again, the same thing can be said about Jon. We are making a full circle again.

Well, you claimed that travelling with a Targ-coloured baby is supposed to be problematic...

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Ned is never described as a plotter or highly intelligent, and is trusting of others (Unless they are downright dishonorable like Jaime). He could have some plan but he obviously didn't execute it even if Jon was born at the tower, or maybe he did and the whole travel to Starfall to bring back Dawn, and coincidental Ashara's death is all a red-herring.

And what amount of plotting does it require to say "this is my natural son Jon"? And why do you claim that he obviously didn't execute his plan? Returning Dawn is a perfect coverup for whatever plan he wanted to execute, and he did manage to bring Jon to Winterfell without leaving any trace to the Dornish connection. Ashara's death is definitely not a coincidence but there are several reasons which might have driven her to suicide, so we probably need to wait for TWOW here.

Besides, Ned was not unintelligent. He was not a political animal but he was a successful military leader.

 

20 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

If that is the case we certainly don't get any info about Danny's early childhood from Varys, so I have to question as to how you come to that conclusion. Yes they weren't a secret around the free cities once they leave the house with the red door, where Danny spent her early childhood.

So, after they leave the house with the red door, Viserys suddenly has a sister and no-one finds it weird? Come on.

Plus, what makes you think that Darry managed to keep their stay in the house with the red door a secret?

 

 

[MostlyMoody]

1 minute ago, IceFire125 said:

So a royal bastard shouldn't spar with bastards (Joff/Tommen)?? Doesn't make sense.  

Only "trueborn swords" should be able to bruise a prince (Jon).  The scene is what GRRM described it as such.  If Jon were to spar with Joffrey or Tommen, it would go against this statement.  But Jon is not... thus the statement by Jon, who he sees himself as a bastard, makes the dramatic irony.

Well, we believe what we want to believe, I suppose.  

Don't get salty, we are just having a lively discussion.

As you said bastards shouldn't spar with bastards isn't the meaning of that quote. So that quote wouldn't make sense as dramatic irony either if R+L=J or Ashara+Brandon/Ned=Jon. So perhaps that quote isn't dramatic irony/foreshadowing at all, it could be just something Jon believes.

I think the issue is that you take that quote and try to give it meaning. I am fully aware that there are other reasons people believe R+L=J but if I may be so Barristan, I dare say I could argue any of them. (This may bite me in the ass)

We do believe what we want to believe, but some of us believe those things because it would make literary/dramatic sense, and some of us believe those things because we like a character and want to elevate him to the main honcho of the story.

[wordpuncher]

1 hour ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

I agree with you on the whole Lemontree thing, but you are being way too pedantic about it.

The main reason I think the Lemontree wasn't in Braavos as is claimed, is because it could've been anything else but a bloody Lemontree. It could've been just a Red Door, just carved animal faces. Could be a red herring, but that's going to be a one way argument until it is confirmed.

I'm just trying to set a standard for what I'll believe. Is it possible that a lemon tree grows in Braavos. Yes. But the text makes that sound unlikely. It's also possible that GRRM is laying a hint to make it clear that she lived in the Sealord's palace. But I can't confirm either. That's all I'm saying. 

 

It's weird. I feel like people want me to own one truth or another, but the evidence is not conclusive either way. 

[Ser Leftwich]

34 minutes ago, IceFire125 said:

So a royal bastard shouldn't spar with bastards (Joff/Tommen)?? Doesn't make sense.  

Only "trueborn swords" should be able to bruise a prince (Jon).  The scene is what GRRM described it as such.  If Jon were to spar with Joffrey or Tommen, it would go against this statement.  But Jon is not... thus the statement by Jon, who he sees himself as a bastard, makes the dramatic irony.

Well, we believe what we want to believe, I suppose.  

Not to mention the irony of Ned being executed for a crime he actually did commit. If R+L=J and Jon is legitimate, Ned did usurp the throne from the rightful heir.

[MostlyMoody]

4 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

That hiding a baby's identity or travelling with one without raising suspicion is not as difficult as you make it sound.

Quote

In that case, yes you're right. I may have overestimated the difficulty of hiding a baby, or you may have underestimated it. Who knows.

4 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

If he hid him, he wouldn't be able to keep an eye on him.

Quote

Fair enough.

4 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Obviously? Why obviously? Why not leave the baby in Dorne where bastards enjoy a much better status? Or why should the Starks have any precedence over the Daynes in custody of a Dayne-Stark baby?

Quote

Bastards enjoy as good of a status as their parents give them. True enough Dorne is more lenient to bastards for whatever reason. It all depends on what Ashara would want, and we don't know what Ashara wanted. So I have to fill in the holes with assumptions, unfortunately.

4 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Oh? And where are those thoughts? Quotes, please?

I don't have the quotes. But to be fair neither do you. I am also at a disadvantage. I would have to re-read the books specifically looking for them, since the wiki and most people assume Danny's childhood is canon.

5 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

You do realize that it was Ned's thoughts which revealed RLJ, right? So, the same way RLJ was hidden in the plain sight of Ned's PoV, RLD should have, as well. It isn't.

See there is an example of you not having quotes.

5 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Ned made her promiseS. As in, more than one thing, that's for one. Plus, he apparently needed to tell Jon something - something he never felt the need to before he found himself in the Black Cells where his life expectancy dropped dramatically. Only then he wished to sit down with Jon and tell him something, and that something was important that he attempted to communicate it even from beyond the grave, in Bran's dream about Winterfell crypts.

Curiously, it is also in the Black Cells that Ned thinks about broken promises for the first time.

A grocery list of promises eh?  Yeah, how about he made a promise to Ashara and Lyanna both?

5 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

You made an educated guess why Robert would have wanted to know. Wanting =/= knowing.

Ok.

5 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

His choice of companions and their number imply that he wasn't completely in the dark about the circumstances in which he might find Lyanna.

Right.

5 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

No-one but Starks and Robert calls it abduction, and Lyanna wouldn't be holding onto flowers from her abductor on her deathbed. Among other things.

Sure.

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

No reason to like Rhaegar, it is enough to love Lyanna dearly and not want her honour compromised. It's not like he told Robert about her wolf blood which led her to an early grave, or about the promises other than bury her at Winterfell, right?

Right.

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

He lied Robert right into his face when he claimed that Cat abducted Tyrion at his order, and as for wit... he did manage to pass Jon off as his own son for fourteen years.

Yes, basically Ned is very good at taking on the blame for various things.

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

The hoops are merely a product of you not knowing the books well enough.

Damn. Savage.

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

I didn't say he had known where Lyanna was from the get-go, I said that he might have known that she had gone willingly.

Fair enough.

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Ned is the second-in-command, and there is no-one to question his decisions at SE because Robert is not there, and when he learns, he has no way to catch up with Ned. Westeros is big, and there are no cellphones. 

It's not like they ever meet after that. Must be my lack of book knowledge kicking in.

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Ah, BS. Ned had left in anger after the Sack and it took Lyanna's death to reconcile him with Robert, so they apparently talked after that, and they talked about Lyanna's death, as well, because in the Winterfell crypts, Ned reminds Robert that he was with Lyanna as she lay dying.

That was sarcasm, and you just rephrased what I meant to say. Which is that Robert knew about it. Now that I think about it what does it matter if Robert knew or not, it doesn't help either theory  . We just began arguing about this point for some reason.

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Well, you claimed that travelling with a Targ-coloured baby is supposed to be problematic...

I did.

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

And what amount of plotting does it require to say "this is my natural son Jon"? And why do you claim that he obviously didn't execute his plan? Returning Dawn is a perfect coverup for whatever plan he wanted to execute, and he did manage to bring Jon to Winterfell without leaving any trace to the Dornish connection. Ashara's death is definitely not a coincidence but there are several reasons which might have driven her to suicide, so we probably need to wait for TWOW here.

Besides, Ned was not unintelligent. He was not a political animal but he was a successful military leader.

Not much I would gather. If he has to go to Starfall to say "Jon is my bastard son" what is the plan there? Don't remind me about TWOW it is quite triggering. xD

We could go into an intelligence argument here, but that would probably devolve into a huge tangent.

7 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

So, after they leave the house with the red door, Viserys suddenly has a sister and no-one finds it weird? Come on.

Plus, what makes you think that Darry managed to keep their stay in the house with the red door a secret?

I didn't say that. I think they lived at least for some time together in that house.

I suppose there is no evidence for that, but what are the implications if it wasn't a secret?

[IceFire125]

4 minutes ago, Rupert Honeybun said:

Don't get salty, we are just having a lively discussion.

Salty about what? this is a public forum.  Agreement and disagreement is the usual traffic. 

You're in a thread proclaiming

"truth".  And you feel that people should eat it up? Don't be naive.

Speaking of "truth".

Catelyn looked to her husband. “Now we truly have no choice. You must be Robert’s Hand. You must go south with him and learn the truth.”
She saw at once that Ned had reached a very different conclusion. “The only truths I know are here. The south is a nest of adders I would do better to avoid.”

“But tonight Lady Stark thought it might give insult to the royal family to seat a bastard among them.”
“I see.” His uncle glanced over his shoulder at the raised table at the far end of the hall. “My brother does not seem very festive tonight.”
Jon had noticed that too. A bastard had to learn to notice things, to read the truth that people hid behind their eyes.

Truth.. secrets...??

“My son Bran …”
To her credit, Cersei did not look away. “He saw us. You love your children, do you not?”
Robert had asked him the very same question, the morning of the melee. He gave her the same answer. “With all my heart.”
“No less do I love mine.”
Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do? Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon’s life, against the children of her body? He did not know. He prayed he never would.

A few chapters before the talk/confession with Cersei...

And when you have it, what then? Some secrets are safer kept hidden. Some secrets are too dangerous to share, even with those you love and trust. Ned slid the dagger that Catelyn had brought him out of the sheath on his belt. The Imp’s knife. Why would the dwarf want Bran dead? To silence him, surely

The fear that Bran would rat out Cersei and Jaime's act in fear of the consequences (the wrath--Robert would inflict) if the truth were known was real to Cersei, that the slight possibility of sexual relationship between the twins would lead to doubt regarding Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen's birth and legitimacy with Robert.  Ned prayed he wouldn't know how he would acted if the same situation was brought to him, especially for Cat.  We now know that Cat would give Jon away at the cost of saving her children the moment she let Jaime free on the promise of returning Sansa and Arya.  Ned was right to keep the secret hidden all these years about Jon's true royal origin.

Suddenly, uncomfortably, he found himself recalling Rhaegar Targaryen. Fifteen years dead, yet Robert hates him as much as ever. It was a disturbing notion …

--

Jon must go,” she said now.
“He and Robb are close,” Ned said. “I had hoped …”
“He cannot stay here,” Catelyn said, cutting him off. “He is your son, not mine. I will not have him.” It was hard, she knew, but no less the truth. Ned would do the boy no kindness by leaving him here at Winterfell.
The look Ned gave her was anguished. “You know I cannot take him south. There will be no place for him at court. A boy with a bastard’s name … you know what they will say of him. He will be shunned.”
Catelyn armored her heart against the mute appeal in her husband’s eyes. “They say your friend Robert has fathered a dozen bastards himself.”
“And none of them has ever been seen at court!” Ned blazed. “The Lannister woman has seen to that. How can you be so damnably cruel, Catelyn? He is only a boy.

“Another problem has arisen on the Wall, however. The brothers of the Night’s Watch have taken leave of their wits and chosen Ned Stark’s bastard son to be their Lord Commander.”
“Snow, the boy is called,” “Snow, the boy is called,” Pycelle said unhelpfully.
“I glimpsed him once at Winterfell,” the queen said, “though the Starks did their best to hide him. He looks very like his father.” Her husband’s by-blows had his look as well, though at least Robert had the grace to keep them out of sight. Once, after that sorry business with the cat, he had made some noises about bringing some baseborn daughter of his to court. “Do as you please,” she’d told him, “but you may find that the city is not a healthy place for a growing girl.” The bruise those words had won her had been hard to hide from Jaime, but they heard no more about the bastard girl. Catelyn Tully was a mouse, or she would have smothered this Jon Snow in his cradle. Instead, she’s left the filthy task to me. 

Not only Robert, but Cersei would make sure Jon dies if any truth comes out that he has royal blood.

30 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Not to mention the irony of Ned being executed for a crime he actually did commit. If R+L=J and Jon is legitimate, Ned did usurp the throne from the rightful heir.

Which give credence to his thoughts regarding the hard stance of the 3 Kingsguards back at the tower of joy who died for the true and rightful heir to the throne... building cairns as memorial, similar to the respect he showed to his fellow northmen that died in the same battle.

 

 

 

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

A few random points from the various arguments and/or discussions going on here...

First, Lord Dustin is not the only man of note in Eddards company at the tower of joy relevant to this hear talk... Well they all might be, but I was thinking of Ethan Glover, Brandon Stark's squire who was imprissoned at Winterfell along with Brandon, but not executed (presumably his dad didn't come to die with him like Rickard did). Rhaegar also returned to Kingslanding to raise an army after the White Bull was sent to find him. It would make sense to me if he stopped in to see his lover (and/or second wife's) dead brothers squire... And it provides a possible way for Ned to end up learning where the ToJ is...

Second,

2 hours ago, IceFire125 said:

I think GRRM revealed it to us through Jon telling Gilly about the promis(es) that Ned kept and failed to keep...

“Your son has no king’s blood. Melisandre gains nothing by giving him to the fire. Stannis wants the free folk to fight for him, he will not burn an innocent without good cause. Your boy will be safe. I will find a wet nurse for him and he’ll be raised here at Winterfell Castle Black under my protection. He’ll learn to hunt and ride, to fight with sword and axe and bow. I’ll even see that he is taught to read and write.” Sam would like that. “And when he is old enough, he will learn the truth of who he is. He’ll be free to seek you out if that is what he wants.”

Two can play at that game:

Let me tell you something about wolves, child. When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives. Summer is the time for squabbles. In winter, we must protect one another, keep each other warm, share our strengths. So if you must hate, Arya, JON, hate those who would truly do us harm. Septa Mordane LEMORE is a good woman, and Sansa… DANY...Sansa is your sister. You may be as different as the sun and the moon, but the same blood flows through both your hearts. You need her, as she needs you … and I need both of you, gods help me."

arms to keep her warm?

It means little and less... I know, It is known