The What ifs

[Azai]

I am curious if in either a role-playing game, head cannon, or your own little fanfiction if you tried to change some of the big events in a song of ice and fire. Examples Ned doesn't die, Bran doesn't fall, or Jaime retains his part. Maybe Ramsay is an awesome guy..

I'd like to know all your thoughts and how the world changed due to your head cannon or "changes". The idea is how would the world alter if your events unfolded how they did.

[RoamingRonin]

My favorite what-if is someone warns Robb about the red wedding.

[Azai]

So how does that play-out for you, if Robb is warned about the Red Wedding?

[daccu65]

Some time ago, I started a thread that I called 'The Butterfly Effect', in which I asked posters to come up with a small change and one point, and consider how it would effect major events later on. 

Is this thread asking for something similar?  If so, I'd like to babble about "What if Robb provided something Edumure with something along the lines of the 5-paragraph operation order, before he left on his raid into the Westerlands.

 

[Ser Leftwich]

AKA: "Have you written/made up a fanfic?"

[Azai]

52 minutes ago, daccu65 said:

Some time ago, I started a thread that I called 'The Butterfly Effect', in which I asked posters to come up with a small change and one point, and consider how it would effect major events later on. 

Is this thread asking for something similar?  If so, I'd like to babble about "What if Robb provided something Edumure with something along the lines of the 5-paragraph operation order, before he left on his raid into the Westerlands.

 

Essentially this is what I am asking. And go on and babble!

[NutBurz]

What if Waymar Royce had a Valyrian blade and survived the Others?

Ned wouldn´t travel to execute the deserter, the kids wouldn´t find the direwolves, Catelyn would be dead, Bran would be dead, Jon would probably be dead, Robb would never inspire respect in the Northern leaders to march for war, The Iron Born wouldn´t have a vaccum of power to perceive themselves in conditions of claiming reignship over anything,  Renly wouldn´t press a weak claim against the Crown if the Lannister armies were focused against a single enemy, Stannis would have the undivided alliegiance of the Stormlands and the Reach, possibly of Dorne too, since Doran wouldn´t see a reason to be so careful. Stannis the Manis would defeat the Lannisters, but the Wildlings would take over the Wall. The North would rally against the Wildlings and slaughter them, just as the Other come and turn all of them into Wights.

Then it´s gg.

[Azai]

You could still make an argument that even if Waymar Royce survived the deserter could have still left out of fear.  But I like following your logic through all the steps. How interesting if one little thing was different and it creates a huge butterfly effect. 

[daccu65]

Okay, here's a "what if" using a rather subtle change...and how I think it could have had major consequences. Let's go back to Riverrun; Robb is planing his raid into the Westerlands, Cat is on her way to try to negotiate with Renly and/or Stannis. Robb is discussing the raid with Brynden only this time Brynden, having gained experience both during the War of the Ninepenny Kings and his duty in the Vale, points out that Robb needs to tell Edmure what the raid is supposed to accomplish, so that Edmure can act accordingly. The day before Robb heads west, he and Brynden call Edmure into the study. There, Robb addresses his uncle:

"Ser Edmure, I am about to leave on a raid. You will be in charge of Riverrun while I and your uncle are gone. It is time to tell you where we are going and what we hope to accomplish. First of all, let's go over the situation at this time: Lannister forces hold Harenhall while our own forces are centered here, at Riverrun. Both forces are too powerful for the other to dislodge so we remain in a standoff, eating the Riverlands bare. We have learned that the Lannisters are forming another host, somewhere near Oxcross."

"On the morrow I will head west with Ser Brynden and nine out of every ten horsemen that we have. My goal is to destroy the force at Oxcross before the Lannisters can get them trained up to be dangerous. After this, I will raid the Westerlands, hoping to draw Tywin's forces out of Harenhall and back into the Westerlands. Your mission will be to hold Riverrun and defend the Riverlands. However, should Tywin move west, you can bloody him a bit, nip at his heels, but don't hinder him. We want him out of the Riverlands, so that your folk can plant and gain another harvest before winter comes. It's time to let the Westerlands feed the armies for a time! Should he leave the Riverlands, I want you to keep him out; fortify the river crossings after he leaves."

"We have other powers at play in this war," Robb continues. "Renly and Stannis. I want it clear that I will be willing to bend the knee to whichever Baratheon proves the victor. Right now, Renly has the stronger force but Stannis is the more experienced commander. My mother is currently trying to negotiate with both parties. I also don't expect the Ironborn to get involved in the fighting in the Riverlands. I'll have to deal with them after I've dealt with the Lannisters."

"I want you to understand that these are the things we want to accomplish: Destroy the force at Oxcross, draw Tywin out of the Riverlands and strengthen our negotiating position with either Stannis or Renly. You have my authority to start negotiations, but be honest and let any ambassador know that I have to make final decisions. I also authorize you to trade any of our hostages, other than the Kingslayer, if you can gain either of my sisters."

I don't see this act as affecting Renly's assassination, the Battle of Oxcross, the Storming of the Crag, Theon's seizure of Winterfell, the apparent deaths of Bran and Rickon or Robb's subsequent indiscretion with and marriage to Jeyne. However, when Tywin moves west, Edmure does not contest him. Instead, he takes what mounted forces Robb left him and attacks the Lannister rearguard, after most of the Westerlands Forces have crossed. Edmure inflicts far more casualties than he takes, and manages to capture several hostages, but it isn't a major victory. Edmure then calls in his footmen and starts to build hasty fortifications at the river crossings.

In the Westerlands, Robb executes his plan of forcing Tywin to pursue him. He finds his ambush site and a battle ensues. While Robb inflicts another defeat upon Tywin, Tywin is far too experienced to have his forces routed. He suffers losses but manages to retreat. Brynden informs Robb that they've gotten about as much from their raid as they can expect and it's now time to return to the Riverlands before Tywin manages to inflict a surprise on them. Robb agrees. It his here where 'history' would start to change.

With Tywin chasing Robb, and suffering another defeat, Littlefinger's negotiations with the Tyrells are not as successful. There are delays in commitment...just long enough to allow Stannis to take King's Landing. In the Red Keep, Ilyn Payne goes on the killing spree that Cersei ordered. Several high-born ladies are killed, including Sansa and Cersei. Joffrey manages to surrender and Stannis also recovers the wounded and unconscious Tyrion. With Stannis in possession of King's Landing and Tywin scrambling to train a force, most of the Stormlands Lords switch to his side, which causes a domino effect. Within weeks, Mace Tyrell swears to Stannis. Robb and Tywin also start negotiations with Stannis.

Detailed items are really beyond the scope of this thread, but here's how I see things panning out: Stannis is harsh but fair, and will quickly rally what's left of the Royal Fleet, as well as the Tyrell Fleet, and crush the Ironborn again. He will keep Jaime and Tyrion as hostages, in order to assure Tywin's good behavior. Varys will have to attempt to assassinate him, as he does not want a harsh, fair king sitting the IT.

In the Riverlands, Edmure will take up lordship at Riverrun and do his best to straighten out the mess that is his realm. While he will be willing to pardon most members of the Brotherhood without Banners, several may wind up taking an offer to take the black. Without Tywin's backing, the Boltons and Freys do not stage the Red Wedding. Instead, Edmure will agree to his wedding and Robb will be forced to provide additional concessions. He is able to do so, as he can trade Lannister hostages, including Jaime, to Stannis in return for Freys receiving prominent (although not small council) positions in Stannis' administration.

In the North, Robb will rally what strength he has available and drive the Ironborn out. He will move into the remains of Winterfell and start to sort out and rebuild his realm. Since Tywin's influence is no longer present with his wife's family, he and Jeyne will start a family. When Wex shows up at White Harbor, Manderly will let Robb know that Rickon is still alive. Robb will rally to the Watch's support when Mance moves on the wall. Without Mel present to antagonize the wildlings' religious beliefs, moving the free folk into the gift goes much more smoothly.

Anyway, I'm sure all of this is very open to debate, but I see that if Robb had simply given Edmure clear orders about what he was trying to accomplish, the Red Wedding would have been averted.