Only 2,000 available to fight?

[chasing the dragons]

Jon says he can get 2,000 to help take back winterfell but didn't he plan to let tens of thousands through the wall (of the 100,000 mance had ready to attack the wall). I know a bunch died at Hardhome but there seems to be some 'fuzzy math' going on. Seems like Jon/Tormond should be able to get at least 20,000 men, maybe not all of them skilled fighters but aren't all free folk able to fight in some type of manner? Also,  Petyr is at CB with the news that the lords of the Vale are going to help. This should be a walkover against the Boltons and set up as such.

[dbunting]

21 minutes ago, chasing the dragons said:

Jon says he can get 2,000 to help take back winterfell but didn't he plan to let tens of thousands through the wall (of the 100,000 mance had ready to attack the wall). I know a bunch died at Hardhome but there seems to be some 'fuzzy math' going on. Seems like Jon/Tormond should be able to get at least 20,000 men, maybe not all of them skilled fighters but aren't all free folk able to fight in some type of manner? Also,  Petyr is at CB with the news that the lords of the Vale are going to help. This should be a walkover against the Boltons and set up as such.

Tormund specifically said 2,000 so that is the number. Remember a lot died and many many more fled when Stannis and his mounted knights broke their camp. Most of them never showed back up. Thousands and thousands more died at Hardhome.

[chasing the dragons]

it still seems a bit low

 

[sj4iy]

Many of the people who came back with them are children and the elderly.  Remember, they were getting the old people and children out first at Hardhome while the people who could fight stayed behind (many of which died there).  Many more would have been injured and sick from the two attacks and the long trip to the Wall.  The actual fighting population that could survive a march would be much, much lower than the number they have.

[Forlong the Fat]

1 hour ago, sj4iy said:

Many of the people who came back with them are children and the elderly.  Remember, they were getting the old people and children out first at Hardhome while the people who could fight stayed behind (many of which died there).  Many more would have been injured and sick from the two attacks and the long trip to the Wall.  The actual fighting population that could survive a march would be much, much lower than the number they have.

Exactly. He said there were 2000 who could fight. Lots more that couldn't. 

[RedShirt47]

Also this was Tormund saying that's how many he could rally to his cause. There are likely many who wouldn't simply just go fight because Tormund says so. The free folk don't bend the knee. They respect Tormund and JOn but does that respect go as far as being willing to go fight some lord?

Tormund will know the folk he can rely on to join him. He might get 2000, he might get 6000 but he is only confident of getting 2000.

[oursisthefury69]

2 hours ago, dbunting said:

Tormund specifically said 2,000 so that is the number. Remember a lot died and many many more fled when Stannis and his mounted knights broke their camp. Most of them never showed back up. Thousands and thousands more died at Hardhome.

Corrrectt... And the entire context of the topic to which you respond is questioning this.  Like its not questionig it from the perspective of Tormund's knowledge, as if to question if he's misinformed.. Its questioning the showrunners continuity in this context

[Prince of the North]

17 minutes ago, oursisthefury69 said:

Corrrectt... And the entire context of the topic to which you respond is questioning this.  Like its not questionig it from the perspective of Tormund's knowledge, as if to question if he's misinformed.. Its questioning the showrunners continuity in this context

I think the 2,000 wildling warriors number makes perfect sense when we take into account (possible spoilers)...

Spoiler

...that they can't make the wildlings have enough warriors to actually have much of a chance against Ramsay's army.  If some possible spoilers/indications about how things are going to go are true then Jon and the wildlings are gonna get slaughtered by the Boltons only to have their bacon saved by Littlefinger and the Vale forces.

 

[Primalsplit]

45 minutes ago, RedShirt47 said:

Also this was Tormund saying that's how many he could rally to his cause. There are likely many who wouldn't simply just go fight because Tormund says so. The free folk don't bend the knee. They respect Tormund and JOn but does that respect go as far as being willing to go fight some lord?

Tormund will know the folk he can rely on to join him. He might get 2000, he might get 6000 but he is only confident of getting 2000.

I think that would be a valid statement, if Ramsay hadn't threatened to kill every wildling man; rape their daughters and mothers in the letter he has sent.

[TickTak7]

I don't think the numbers are especially important here.

2,000 seemed like a correct number, all things considered. 

However I think the important takeaway from this is - Team Jon/Sansa/Tormund have sigificantly less men than Ramsey's, and Littlefinger's Knights of the Vale will be the great equalizer in any battle. 

I think that's all the show is trying to setup - that the only way they can take back Winterfell, is if Littlefinger combines his forces with Sansa and Jon. 

EDIT - I would imagine for TV reasons, they would shrink the number a bit as well. It's much easier to show a battle of 5,000 vs 2,000 on screen (actors, extras, CGI, and all) than showing, say, 100,000 vs 50,000, or whatever. 

We know a ton of their CGi budget this season went to the white walkers

 

[King Ragnar]

22 minutes ago, Prince of the North said:

I think the 2,000 wildling warriors number makes perfect sense when we take into account (possible spoilers)...

  Hide contents

...that they can't make the wildlings have enough warriors to actually have much of a chance against Ramsay's army.  If some possible spoilers/indications about how things are going to go are true then Jon and the wildlings are gonna get slaughtered by the Boltons only to have their bacon saved by Littlefinger and the Vale forces.

 

How is this implied? Can't recall such indications!

[Prince of the North]

Just now, Ser Bronn Blackfyre said:

How is this implied? Can't recall such indications!

We already know Littlefinger is getting the Vale forces together to go north and rescue Sansa from the preview and...(again, "possible" spoilers)

 

Spoiler

  ...also, there is a leak from a source that has been correct with other things that says Jon and the wildlings will be getting their asses kicked by Ramsay's forces when the Vale forces arrive to save them.  Thus, for this to work somewhat logically the wildling forces had to remain smaller than the Bolton forces, etc.

 

[dbunting]

52 minutes ago, Prince of the North said:

We already know Littlefinger is getting the Vale forces together to go north and rescue Sansa from the preview and...(again, "possible" spoilers)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

  ...also, there is a leak from a source that has been correct with other things that says Jon and the wildlings will be getting their asses kicked by Ramsay's forces when the Vale forces arrive to save them.  Thus, for this to work somewhat logically the wildling forces had to remain smaller than the Bolton forces, etc.

 

Ok, but from the preview for next week we see Sansa and LF talking. If he is there than the Vale army will be nearby. No way Jon marches south before they arrive if he knows they are coming. It's possible that Sansa and Brienne are traveling to the Vale to ask for help and they meet halfway. I just think it would be out of Jons character to attack Winterfell being out numbered almost 3 - 1.

[Prince of the North]

2 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Ok, but from the preview for next week we see Sansa and LF talking. If he is there than the Vale army will be nearby. No way Jon marches south before they arrive if he knows they are coming. It's possible that Sansa and Brienne are traveling to the Vale to ask for help and they meet halfway. I just think it would be out of Jons character to attack Winterfell being out numbered almost 3 - 1.

I can't say one way or another about this.  Who knows how the show is gonna make this work or the timing of it? 

[dbunting]

3 minutes ago, Prince of the North said:

I can't say one way or another about this.  Who knows how the show is gonna make this work or the timing of it? 

True, timelines can be tricky. I will just say that I really hope that there isn't another swoop in and save them at the last minute thing here. I would love for Ramsey to think Jon came with just the wildlings and attack him in the open field only to have the Vale and other northern houses come in from both sides to crush them.

[Juan_Snow]

Just now, dbunting said:

Ok, but from the preview for next week we see Sansa and LF talking. If he is there than the Vale army will be nearby. No way Jon marches south before they arrive if he knows they are coming. It's possible that Sansa and Brienne are traveling to the Vale to ask for help and they meet halfway. I just think it would be out of Jons character to attack Winterfell being out numbered almost 3 - 1.

I think it's likely that LF went ahead of the force.  It would take Royce a few weeks to call the banners and organize them.

[mbuehner]

4 minutes ago, Juan_Snow said:

I think it's likely that LF went ahead of the force.  It would take Royce a few weeks to call the banners and organize them.

Depends on the timeline which depends on how much time passed between LF dropping of Sansa and Sansa getting to Castle Black (if not somewhere on the way to Winterfell). In theory the Valemen travelling by sea could sail up to White Knife to very close to Winterfell (much like a lot of people suspect the Manderlys are doing in the book) and that could be done in a pretty short amount of time (consider how quickly Stannis moved his army from Dragonstone to the Wall by sea).

[Marada78]

20 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Ok, but from the preview for next week we see Sansa and LF talking. If he is there than the Vale army will be nearby. No way Jon marches south before they arrive if he knows they are coming. It's possible that Sansa and Brienne are traveling to the Vale to ask for help and they meet halfway. I just think it would be out of Jons character to attack Winterfell being out numbered almost 3 - 1.

 Well maybe he doesn't know he is outnumbered until it's too late. Let's say he gathers some help (e.g. Mormont) and reaches 5-6.000 men, then he gets there and finds that adding up Umbers and Karstarks now Ramsey has 10.000. It's not like he will just say "ok, let's go back and gather some more" he will just have to fight.

I am curios about Brienne and Pod role in this battle. In the trailers they were in the riverlands and a Lannister camp.

[Old Blue Eyes]

2 hours ago, RedShirt47 said:

Also this was Tormund saying that's how many he could rally to his cause. There are likely many who wouldn't simply just go fight because Tormund says so. The free folk don't bend the knee. They respect Tormund and JOn but does that respect go as far as being willing to go fight some lord?

Tormund will know the folk he can rely on to join him. He might get 2000, he might get 6000 but he is only confident of getting 2000.

It would not be outrageous if all the Free-folk gladly took up arms for Jon - he got them past the wall, literally died for them, and should they succeed in retaking Winterfell/the North, they know they would surely be rewarded with a new life and acceptance from Stark loyalists.

[Lord Lannister]

7 minutes ago, Marada78 said:

 I am curios about Brienne and Pod role in this battle. In the trailers they were in the riverlands and a Lannister camp.

I'm thinking Sansa sends her away when she finds out that Brienne thought it was more important to execute Stannis than keep a watch on her window.

 

4 hours ago, chasing the dragons said:

it still seems a bit low

 

Exactly how many people do you think could fit on Stannis' ships? Roose Bolton said Stannis' forces outnumbered him before 20 good men and mass desertions. Given his stated number is at 5,000 that means Stannis had between 5,000 and 10,000 men roughly. Even assuming the high end of that, let's say Jon rescued 10,000 people from Hardhome on those ships... which we know didn't happen since they had to leave while under assault. 2,000 fighting men would be one out of five... which is actually about right given that they were prioritizing women and children.