Question about the Causeway at Queenscrown.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Those 100,000 are not living in Winterfell itself, nor the Wintertown. They are distributed over all the little villages with 10-12 families each.

 

They are simply required for the food economy to work. Four families working farms feed themselves and one family doing something else. Shedding all kinds of artisans and stuff, between 50 and 100 families working farms feed one family living in a castle, doing castle stuff.

Those 50-100 families have to live close enough to Winterfell to ship grain, milk, beef, pork, eggs, everything the people of Winterfell would eat.

Shipping with medieval technology is extremely limited. A working oxen requires about 25 kg concentrated feed (read: grain and stuff) and another 25 kg grazing. And he can pull about 200-300 kg of cargo. If the produce would be carted about 40 miles (5 days towards, 5 days backwards), he'd eat the entire cargo, delivering nothing at all!

Horses are better. But not much better, considering that they require about 10% concentrated feed even while not working at all, while a nonworking oxen requires only grazing.

Those limitations shaped the settlement structure in medieval Europe, small farming villages clustered about towns and/or castles. It's just the same for Westeros. Without a sizeable port (trading cogs are more than a thousand times as effective on a kg of food per ton of cargo per mile base and river barges not much less), everything Winterfell consumes has to be produced strictly locally. And Winterfell has no port.

 

The rest is simply a guesstimate of Winterfell's population at 1,000+ people. That's barely enough for the mentioned soldiers and their families, therefore lowballing.

[Macgregor of the North]

8 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Those 100,000 are not living in Winterfell itself, nor the Wintertown. They are distributed over all the little villages with 10-12 families each.

 

They are simply required for the food economy to work. Four families working farms feed themselves and one family doing something else. Shedding all kinds of artisans and stuff, between 50 and 100 families working farms feed one family living in a castle, doing castle stuff.

Those 50-100 families have to live close enough to Winterfell to ship grain, milk, beef, pork, eggs, everything the people of Winterfell would eat.

Shipping with medieval technology is extremely limited. A working oxen requires about 25 kg concentrated feed (read: grain and stuff) and another 25 kg grazing. And he can pull about 200-300 kg of cargo. If the produce would be carted about 40 miles (5 days towards, 5 days backwards), he'd eat the entire cargo, delivering nothing at all!

Horses are better. But not much better, considering that they require about 10% concentrated feed even while not working at all, while a nonworking oxen requires only grazing.

Those limitations shaped the settlement structure in medieval Europe, small farming villages clustered about towns and/or castles. It's just the same for Westeros. Without a sizeable port (trading cogs are more than a thousand times as effective on a kg of food per ton of cargo per mile base and river barges not much less), everything Winterfell consumes has to be produced strictly locally. And Winterfell has no port.

 

The rest is simply a guesstimate of Winterfell's population at 1,000+ people. That's barely enough for the mentioned soldiers and their families, therefore lowballing.

I know you don't mean within WF itself. That much is obvious here. I understand about manors and the structure and peasants etc and it seems you have read a bit about it to so its a topic were both familiar with, it's just the numbers im not agreeing on. 

I get that come winter, WF can't help everyone which is why some die etc, but the scale you are talking about would leave absolutely thousands and thousands dead. It's not plausible. The winter town is purposefully for all these small folk to stay in, or most of them. If the winter town houses less than 18'000 then are you meaning to tell me around 80'000 peasants are meant to die or seek refuge elsewhere? 

The mountain clans themselves 'small folk' also come down to the winter town so that's even more. And they can't go to Umber lands or the Dreadfort etc because their own small folk would be looking for winter refuge also. 

Take this as well. If Robb amassed 18'000 full strength, and most of the people from each bannermens army are small folk, then if he had 100'000 small folk of his own, he could have fielded 18'000 of his own small folk alone and left 80'000 to bring in the harvests. You see what I'm getting at here? I'll leave a couple quotes to back up what point I'm making. 

I seriously think personally you have reached a far bigger figure than the truth basically, and the idea that WF has or needs 100'000 small folk to supply the castle is way off the mark. 

Just a couple quotes for reference to my points about Robbs armies.

"Robb took it hard. "Mother, what are we going to do? I brought this whole army together, eighteen thousand men, but I don't … I'm not certain …" He looked to her, his eyes shining, the proud young lord melted away in an instant, and quick as that he was a child again, a fifteen-year-old boy looking to his mother for answers."

"And yet there was sense in what they said. This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. When their lords called, they came … but not forever. "Marching is all very well," she said to her son, "but where, and to what purpose? What do you mean to do?"

An army of small folk pretty much really then? So again, if Robb had 100'000 small folk at his disposal alone, why field his meagre amount which only formed a fraction of his full 18'000 army?.

[direpupy]

4 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

 

"Robb took it hard. "Mother, what are we going to do? I brought this whole army together, eighteen thousand men, but I don't … I'm not certain …" He looked to her, his eyes shining, the proud young lord melted away in an instant, and quick as that he was a child again, a fifteen-year-old boy looking to his mother for answers."

"And yet there was sense in what they said. This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. When their lords called, they came … but not forever. "Marching is all very well," she said to her son, "but where, and to what purpose? What do you mean to do?"

An army of small folk pretty much really then? So again, if Robb had 100'000 small folk at his disposal alone, why field his meagre amount which only formed a fraction of his full 18'000 army?.

the bolded part is the most important part of that quote, you take the ones that are not indispensable, basically the ones who's leaving does not cause chaos. And the 100.000 Bright Blue Eyes mentions is not just men half of them are women, and of the men some are to old others to young only about 20% of the population is men of fighting age and some of those are not fit to fight. This is where the whole number of 1.5% of the population being the most you can raise as an army in medieval times comes from. And 1.5% of 100.000 is 1500 men, nowhere near 18000, so assuming house Stark is the strongest house in the North since they are the house paramount Bright Blue Eyes is actually correct 100.000 is low for the population of the Stark's personal lands.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

You are mixing up stuff there. Wintertown is not the place for everybody to go to during winter. Almost anybody stays right where they are. It's the place for the surplus of people not having sufficiently provisioned homes of their own, younger sons and all that. Indeed, provisioning Wintertown requires even more food production (and thus working stiffs) in the area of Winterfell.

 

Furthermore, the 80% required for farming are exactly that: farmers. The remaining 20% can't be drafted into the military either, you've got to provide millers, blacksmiths, carpenters, masons ... whatever, they can't abandon their dayjobs either.

You can draft about one percent without wrecking the economy and literally starving your people. Give or take, the North is probably closer to 0.5% due to it's climate (Reach and Riverlands are regions I'd put closer to 2%).

 

And finally, you seem to be confused by imprecise information and the nobility's arrogance. The armies of Westeros are professionals, not the drafted incompetents you seem to propose. See the classic for that particular discussion.

[Macgregor of the North]

How about I just leave notes. 

I'll leave some.

basically I think your 100'000 is wrong.

Winterfells household.

Ned has 50 household guard in KL. 

When Ned heads south this leaves WF quite scarce in residents. 

Some Extra notes on numbers around WF. 

"The rest had left eight days past, six hundred men from Winterfell and the nearest holdfasts. Cley Cerwyn was bringing three hundred more to join them on the march, and Maester Luwin had sent ravens before them, summoning levies from White Harbor and the barrowlands and even the deep places inside the wolfswood. Torrhen's Square was under attack by some monstrous war chief named Dagmer Cleftjaw."

So after Robb heads south with his army, which of his own WF men, would have been way way less than 18'000 from the surrounding holdfasts and villages, 18'000 was the whole army total remember. 
WF only sends 600 men to deal with Dagmer. 

If your numbers were true WF would still have had over 80'000 people to choose men from no? 

So why send 600? That to me seems like the best they could muster? But if there was 80'000 to choose from then WF could have mustered thousands of men from the holdfasts no? 

Come on, surely you realise now that your numbers were far to exaggerated and in reality the surrounding holdfasts around WF probably house around 20'000 people including women and children. 

So Here it is. 

Robbs army comprises of his Lords bannermen, their sworn swords, and their small folk. Robbs own small folk from around WF are in this mix to. The total is around 18'000 he takes south. 

After this the small folk are left in scarce amount in each holdfast because the rest are off to the biggest war since the Greyjoy uprising. 

When Torrhens square comes under attack, WF can send but only 600 men that can fight to help. And I bet that is absolutely scraping together green boys and older men. 

So come on? If your numbers are true, Robb would have took more of his own small folk south, and would have been left with thousands to help at Torrhens square.  Doesn't this point to your numbers being wrong? 

Also, add the fact the winter town, built to house all WF's small folk who work the land to keep WF's inhabitants alive, can house less than 18'000 people. Tell me, where could you possibly have the idea that the holdfasts and villages around a half days ride from WF house 100'000 people? 

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Please remember: One percent of the population under arms.

You argue with twenty percent, something not even Germany during winter 1944/45 achieved, and that was the highest rate of militarization ever witnessed in history (~14% if I remember correctly).

[direpupy]

Bright blue eyes is correct, you seem to think that they can muster somewhere between 10 to 15 percent of the population which was never achieved in any civilisation ever in the whole world. The maximum number in medieval times was between 1 and 2 percent so 1.5 would be a good rough number to work with. So 1.5% of 100.000 is 1500, and as i said before being the paramount house they should be able to field a lot more than that, so 100.000 is actually way to low.

[Macgregor of the North]

@Bright Blue Eyes @direpupy

Robb takes 1500 in numbers from WF and the surrounding villages and holdfasts you say? That number has never been confirmed I don't think but let's work with it. 
The number is 1.5% of the population of 100'000. 

That leaves a population of 98'500 small folk left who live around WF to support WF. 

Where does the 600 from that population that is scraped together to head south to defend Torrhens square from Dagmer fit in to that number? 

So there was only 600 fighting men to go? Leaving around 97'900 smallfolk surrounding WF in all the villages?. 

It seems to me there was a lot less than 98'500 small folk left around WF after Robb headed south. 

Bearing in mind Rodrik leaves WF near empty and terribly unguarded when he takes the 600, and from the surrounding holdfasts and villages near all fighting males will be gone, the numbers surely depleted to near enough no fighting males left, but only old men, young children and women, but this still leaves nearly 100'000 smallfolk still living around WF?. 97'900 to be precise. 

I think These numbers don't seem to be matching up somewhere guys. 

Where is it ever confirmed WF has 1000+ occupants also? I've never seen that stated anywhere. An SSM or link would be appreciated. 

[direpupy]

50 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@Bright Blue Eyes @direpupy

Robb takes 1500 in numbers from WF and the surrounding villages and holdfasts you say? That number has never been confirmed I don't think but let's work with it. 
The number is 1.5% of the population of 100'000. 

That leaves a population of 98'500 small folk left who live around WF to support WF. 

Where does the 600 from that population that is scraped together to head south to defend Torrhens square from Dagmer fit in to that number? 

So there was only 600 fighting men to go? Leaving around 97'900 smallfolk surrounding WF in all the villages?. 

It seems to me there was a lot less than 98'500 small folk left around WF after Robb headed south. 

Bearing in mind Rodrik leaves WF near empty and terribly unguarded when he takes the 600, and from the surrounding holdfasts and villages near all fighting males will be gone, the numbers surely depleted to near enough no fighting males left, but only old men, young children and women, but this still leaves nearly 100'000 smallfolk still living around WF?. 97'900 to be precise. 

I think These numbers don't seem to be matching up somewhere guys. 

Where is it ever confirmed WF has 1000+ occupants also? I've never seen that stated anywhere. An SSM or link would be appreciated. 

First of all it was meant as an example not an actuall figure, it is never stated how many men of the 18000 are from winterfell. And rodrik scrapes togheter what he can as fast as he can so the ones that live further out are not touched thats why winterfell is empty because he striped it to get men fast.

The real problem is that you don't seem to realise that the 100.000 is everyone not just men of fighting age but also the old, young and women.

So again the 100.000 is not an actuall number it is for example purposes.

But to use it as such, 100.000 people, half are women that leaves 50.000 men of all ages from newborn to (and this is mediëval times so at most) 70 years of age, altough most will not live beyond 60, the to old and to young are between 50 and 60 percent of this so at best that's 25.000 men of fighting age. But now you have to look at how many of them are fighting fit and then you have to discount those who can not be spared (for example Mikken the smith who was left in Winterfell by both Robb and Rodrik) and in they end you will end up with between 1 and 2 percent of the population that you can march of to war. So in this example the maximum would be between 1k and 2k men.

Now assuming that house Stark as the paramount house is also the most powerfull house, and whe know for a fact that the Karstarks could raise almost 3000 men, a population of 100.000 would actually be to low.

[Macgregor of the North]

@direpupy I fully understand that the population number you mean includes the women, men of all ages, and children. To make this debate run smoother, let's start from the bottom so we're on the same page. First up, how big do you think WF is? Let's talk acres and sq m, (not including the 3acre godswood) that is something that wouldn't be part of a real life castle), and how big do you think WF's full household is? Do you agree with BBE that WF houses over 1000+ people, if so, why?.

Bearing in mind WF is no city, only a Lords castle.

 

[Bright Blue Eyes]

About ten acres, give or take. Maybe even twenty

We know that WF is one of the big castles of Westeros. Another of those (Storms End) had a garrison of 500 soldiers under Stannis. let's go with that. Each of these soldiers would have a wife or girlfriend, most living in Winterfell. As well as some elderly parents or children, the latter definitely living inside it's walls

So, let's say 500 soldiers, 500 significant others (serving girls and cooks and stuff), 250 still-living parents too old to be counted as a soldier, 1,500 children...

 

The scraped together stuff is exclusively from the existing military, which combined with the soldiers Robb took south make up no more than a single percent of the area's total population.

The many, many other guys living around WInterfell never held a sword in their live. They are civilians, pure and simple. Please stop lumping them together with actual military.

[direpupy]

2 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@direpupy I fully understand that the population number you mean includes the women, men of all ages, and children. To make this debate run smoother, let's start from the bottom so we're on the same page. First up, how big do you think WF is? Let's talk acres and sq m, (not including the 3acre godswood) that is something that wouldn't be part of a real life castle), and how big do you think WF's full household is? Do you agree with BBE that WF houses over 1000+ people, if so, why?.

Bearing in mind WF is no city, only a Lords castle.

 

Well Winterfell is actually really big.

From AWoIaF

To the trained eye, the architecture of Winterfell is an amalgam of many different eras. And its vastness not only encompasses buildings but open areas as well. In fact, three acres alone are given over to an ancient godswood,

The greatest castle of the North is Winterfell,

The castle itself is peculiar in that the Starks did not level the ground when laying down the foundations and walls of the castle. Very likely, this reveals that the castle was built in pieces over the years rather than being planned as a single structure. Some scholars suspect that it was once a complex of linked ringforts, though the centuries have eradicated almost all evidence of this.

In the last peace it becomes clear that Winterfell was expanded upon for century's and that it may actually have been several linked ringforts, so several small castles that over time became one castle.

And the people who live there seem to think of it as big as-well.

Cats thoughts on Winterfell in the first book: Winterfell was such a vast place. "Keep him off the walls, then," she said bravely. "You know how Bran loves to climb."

Bran's thoughts from the same book: The builders had not even leveled the earth; there were hills and valleys behind the walls of Winterfell.

Hills and valleys both plural, inside a castle, Winterfell is huge.

And some more of Bran's thoughts: Winterfell was a grey stone labyrinth of walls and towers and courtyards and tunnels spreading out in all directions. In the older parts of the castle, the halls slanted up and down so that you couldn't even be sure what floor you were on. The place had grown over the centuries like some monstrous stone tree, Maester Luwin told him once, and its branches were gnarled and thick and twisted, its roots sunk deep into the earth.

I think it is clear from al of this Winterfell is really big.

And that means that @Bright Blue Eyes is most likely correct in there being 1000+ inhabitants, since it makes no sense to build such a vast castle if you don't intend to use al of it.

[Macgregor of the North]

12 hours ago, direpupy said:

Well Winterfell is actually really big.

From AWoIaF

To the trained eye, the architecture of Winterfell is an amalgam of many different eras. And its vastness not only encompasses buildings but open areas as well. In fact, three acres alone are given over to an ancient godswood,

The greatest castle of the North is Winterfell,

The castle itself is peculiar in that the Starks did not level the ground when laying down the foundations and walls of the castle. Very likely, this reveals that the castle was built in pieces over the years rather than being planned as a single structure. Some scholars suspect that it was once a complex of linked ringforts, though the centuries have eradicated almost all evidence of this.

In the last peace it becomes clear that Winterfell was expanded upon for century's and that it may actually have been several linked ringforts, so several small castles that over time became one castle.

And the people who live there seem to think of it as big as-well.

Cats thoughts on Winterfell in the first book: Winterfell was such a vast place. "Keep him off the walls, then," she said bravely. "You know how Bran loves to climb."

Bran's thoughts from the same book: The builders had not even leveled the earth; there were hills and valleys behind the walls of Winterfell.

Hills and valleys both plural, inside a castle, Winterfell is huge.

And some more of Bran's thoughts: Winterfell was a grey stone labyrinth of walls and towers and courtyards and tunnels spreading out in all directions. In the older parts of the castle, the halls slanted up and down so that you couldn't even be sure what floor you were on. The place had grown over the centuries like some monstrous stone tree, Maester Luwin told him once, and its branches were gnarled and thick and twisted, its roots sunk deep into the earth.

I think it is clear from al of this Winterfell is really big.

And that means that @Bright Blue Eyes is most likely correct in there being 1000+ inhabitants, since it makes no sense to build such a vast castle if you don't intend to use al of it.

Do you agree that some of the maps that have been done, which are really great I'll add, do the castle justice? 

They all show that the gods woods 3 acre site makes up about a quarter of its area. Would you think it fair to say this is a fair assumption and the rest of it is let's say around 9 acres in size? 

9 acres is around 37'000 sq m.

Edinburgh castle is actually around 36'000 sqm, The North of Westeros is Analogous to Scotland GRRM has said and this is Scotland's biggest castle, the tenth biggest in the world so pretty vast including all land and walls etc.

WF has a household guard of 200. 

Ned takes 50 south and it's said that's a quarter. 

Edinburgh castle was only garrisoned with 100 guards when the scots took it back in 1341 and the English had a big dominant force in the capital.

Edinburghs population never actually got up to 12'000 until the 1500's. So In the years up to that all the residents of Edinburgh castle were fed by less than 12'000 peasants working the surrounding lands during the 1300s and 1400s. 

Lets talk peasants. In Westeros they are called smallfolk. 

In the Middle Ages 15-30 peasant families were needed to support one nobles family. Let's take an Inbetween average number of 22 peasant families to support a Nobles family. In this case we will say Ned Starks family at WF needs 22 peasant families to support only them. On average let's put a family at 4 members. 
22 X 4 = 88. So that's 88 working peasants to support one nobles family. 

Let's say WF has 700 people. They have 200 household guard. Not all will have families, lots will be household guard with no wife or children. So let's say that on average we can say there are families of 3. 

700 / 3 = 233.

Ok so on average let's say in WF we have 233 families of 3. These all need 88 peasants Working to support them. 

So that's 233 families in WF, times the 88 it takes to support each family. 

233 X 88 = 20'504.

So if WF has a population of 700 people including 200 household guard and the families that some of them may have, also the rest of their servants and their families to. Then going by records of history,  20'504 smallfolk can support the castle. 
Therefore the surrounding villages and holdfasts in WF's direct surrounding areas who work for the castle could number 20'000. 
 
This 15-30 peasant family figure appears many times throughout historic records I researched, and since neither me, you, or BBE were around at the time records online or in books are all we have to go on so I'm inclined to believe the figure. 

Try variations of it if you like. 

Lets say WF Has your thousand, which I highly doubt if the household guard is only 200 and WF is big but it's no city, only a vast castle.

We can even be generous and say that the WF families average 4. 

1000 / 4 = 250.

250 families of 4 living in WF, and this is generous I'll add.

lets say that it's the full 30 families of peasants working for a noble family of 4, and the peasant families number 5. Generous again, not every family was large due to disease, famine, short life expectancy etc.

30 X 5 = 150.

So that's 150 peasants working to support each of WF's 250 families of 4. 

150 X 250 = 37'000.

With all these jumped up numbers we get a smallfolk number of 37'500 living in the WF surrounding villages and holdfasts. An altogether more reasonable and believable figure I'd say, especially when you look at the state of the North after the wars and how empty WF and the surrounding areas are after the devestations.

Oh another thing, the smallfolk surrounding the area don't supply everything, nobody is allowed to hunt the lands around a nobles manor. They hunt themselves for game. And WF also grows it's on fruit. 

So I don't believe your number of 100'000 smallfolk sorry. And you even said that number is low, which makes me believe it less.  

 

 

 

 

[Macgregor of the North]

14 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

About ten acres, give or take. Maybe even twenty

We know that WF is one of the big castles of Westeros. Another of those (Storms End) had a garrison of 500 soldiers under Stannis. let's go with that. Each of these soldiers would have a wife or girlfriend, most living in Winterfell. As well as some elderly parents or children, the latter definitely living inside it's walls

So, let's say 500 soldiers, 500 significant others (serving girls and cooks and stuff), 250 still-living parents too old to be counted as a soldier, 1,500 children...

 

The scraped together stuff is exclusively from the existing military, which combined with the soldiers Robb took south make up no more than a single percent of the area's total population.

The many, many other guys living around WInterfell never held a sword in their live. They are civilians, pure and simple. Please stop lumping them together with actual military.

Storms end was to be a castle under siege. Of course the garrison is to be massive. WF only keeps a household guard of 200. Fact. 

So see my answer to @direpupy for a reasonable answer to the both of your thousand. Which I accounted for and was very generous to you both.

 

[Bright Blue Eyes]

3 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Edinburghs population never actually got up to 12'000 until the 1500's. So In the years up to that all the residents of Edinburgh castle were fed by less than 12'000 peasants working the surrounding lands during the 1300s and 1400s. 

That's just plain not applicable. Edinburgh was a city. People living in cities don't farm themselves. They import food from outside the city walls. You'd have to count every family outside Edingburgh, halfway to Glasgow. Furthermore, Edinburgh actually got a port, something I've been harking about changing the equation since my first post.

 

The 30 families number is less precise than the 1% number, and sourced worse. Please use the latter and do your numbers again.

[Macgregor of the North]

18 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

About ten acres, give or take. Maybe even twenty

We know that WF is one of the big castles of Westeros. Another of those (Storms End) had a garrison of 500 soldiers under Stannis. let's go with that. Each of these soldiers would have a wife or girlfriend, most living in Winterfell. As well as some elderly parents or children, the latter definitely living inside it's walls

So, let's say 500 soldiers, 500 significant others (serving girls and cooks and stuff), 250 still-living parents too old to be counted as a soldier, 1,500 children...

 

The scraped together stuff is exclusively from the existing military, which combined with the soldiers Robb took south make up no more than a single percent of the area's total population.

The many, many other guys living around WInterfell never held a sword in their live. They are civilians, pure and simple. Please stop lumping them together with actual military.

My replies are weird bear with me 

[Macgregor of the North]

1 hour ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

That's just plain not applicable. Edinburgh was a city. People living in cities don't farm themselves. They import food from outside the city walls. You'd have to count every family outside Edingburgh, halfway to Glasgow. Furthermore, Edinburgh actually got a port, something I've been harking about changing the equation since my first post.

 

The 30 families number is less precise than the 1% number, and sourced worse. Please use the latter and do your numbers again.

The 30 families number is generous and at the highest end of the spectrum if I'm honest lol. How can you possibly become an authority to decide how much peasant families worked per nobles family? You are being ridiculous. 

Tell me where your 1% comes from and let's decide how valid your reasoning is. 

Bearing in mind, this is what we are trying to decide here. 

How much peasants/serfs/smallfolk etc all  live within a half days ride from WF and it's their duties to farm the lands etc for WF's castle. 

Where does your 1% come from, and also, explain what it is 1% of. 

How much do you honestly think lives in WF?? 

Lets lay all our figures and sources on the table here. I want to know where your 1% comes from?

Because if you look in detail, many many sites reference that 85-90% of populations in the Middle Ages were peasants living in the countryside. 

Sooo, if we go by this to get your population of let's say 1500 living in WF? 

The population of the lands surrounding WF is worked out this way. 

90% of 15000 = 13500 living in the countryside working the lands. 

The remaining 1500 in the noble/lords castle. I personally think that more live in the surrounding holdfasts and villages so to tie in a bit more with your Ideas let's look at the 15-30 peasant family numbers, which make sense and are as credible as anything you can find if I'm honest. 

If we go by these, the 20'000 and then the higher 37'000 seemed more reasonable. 

But where you are getting well over 100'000 peasants working the land to support WF is beyond me and an explanation is needed and a source provided. 

[Macgregor of the North]

And for the record @Bright Blue Eyes, Edinburgh wasnt a city until quite a bit later on in the middle ages, it wasn't even originally the capital until the end of the middle ages. It would have been quite like WF in the Middle Ages, a stronghold with villages etc round it. 

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Junkelmann, Delbrück, Christ, Kienast, Dahlheim... granted, some of those are more about the Roman Empire, but the big changes started only during the 19th century anyway.

 

Problem with the 30 families is that you neglect millers, blacksmiths, cobblers, priests, all kind of artisans and social workers, who also have to be fed.

Distribution of jobs is about 80% foodproduction (primary economic sector), 19% secondary and tertiary sectors (all kinds of jobs not directly involved in food production) and 1% military/administration.

Each separate region (separate defined by the limitations of transport of bulk goods) got to have roughly that distribution or the entire economy goes to hell and people starve, whether there aren't enough people to work a plow or enough to make plows in the first place*.

Winterfell got no coast. Winterfell got no harbour. Winterfell's economic region is limited by the capabilities of oxcarts. There have to be about 19% artisans and stuff close enough to provide the 80% farmers with the stuff they need, while those provide themselves, the artisans and the useless parasites swinging swords with food, food that can't be shipped very for more than a couple miles before you run into diminishing returns.

 

* For agrarian societies, if fishing provides the majority of food, the numbers are somewhat different.

 

As to Edinburgh, while it may have lacked the legal distinction of a city charter, it was definitely an urban settlement, which is the important part here. Narrow streets, small houses with little workshops downstairs, maybe even cobblestone every twentieth streetcorner. Not fifteen sprawling houses along a single road, with a hide of farmland starting at the backdoor.

[Macgregor of the North]

14 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Junkelmann, Delbrück, Christ, Kienast, Dahlheim... granted, some of those are more about the Roman Empire, but the big changes started only during the 19th century anyway.

 

Problem with the 30 families is that you neglect millers, blacksmiths, cobblers, priests, all kind of artisans and social workers, who also have to be fed.

Distribution of jobs is about 80% foodproduction (primary economic sector), 19% secondary and tertiary sectors (all kinds of jobs not directly involved in food production) and 1% military/administration.

Each separate region (separate defined by the limitations of transport of bulk goods) got to have roughly that distribution or the entire economy goes to hell and people starve, whether there aren't enough people to work a plow or enough to make plows in the first place*.

Winterfell got no coast. Winterfell got no harbour. Winterfell's economic region is limited by the capabilities of oxcarts. There have to be about 19% artisans and stuff close enough to provide the 80% farmers with the stuff they need, while those provide themselves, the artisans and the useless parasites swinging swords with food, food that can't be shipped very for more than a couple miles before you run into diminishing returns.

 

* For agrarian societies, if fishing provides the majority of food, the numbers are somewhat different.

 

As to Edinburgh, while it may have lacked the legal distinction of a city charter, it was definitely an urban settlement, which is the important part here. Narrow streets, small houses with little workshops downstairs, maybe even cobblestone every twentieth streetcorner. Not fifteen sprawling houses along a single road, with a hide of farmland starting at the backdoor.

I don't see a problem with 30 families. That was generous I believe. The average number would be 22 families, the lowest 15, working for one well off family. The extras should give you all you need and more, and bear in mind I was generous with WF's numbers. A castle with a household guard of only 200 soldiers, some of whom will have no families as not every soldier does, will not have well over 1000+ inhabitants. I'm sorry but I won't ever believe this of WF, and loads of others wouldn't either. If you could give me a detailed breakdown of WF and it's people I'd maybe read it but I'm sure you agree this debate is a silly cycle now and nearing its end.

I just think you have been stuck with this way of thinking for a very long time and only GRRM himself could make you see it different. 

So on conclusion, we disagree. 

Your claim that there are over 100'000 people all living within a half days ride from WF because that's what's needed to support WF, is, in my eyes, false. 

Lets keep our eyes peeled in winds for more clues to the numbers left and possibly resume the debate?