Stannis should have gone to Bitterbridge after Renly died

[James Steller]

Stannis shouldn't have relied on Parmen Crane and Erren Florent to rally the thousands of infantry camped at Bitterbridge. Randyll Tarly and Loras Tyrell were able to seize control of the chaos and either drive away Stannis' supporters or just kill them.

What Stannis should have done was leave his original five thousand outside Storm's End, and led his new cavalry in a swift charge to Bitterbridge to gather the rest of his forces.

Stannis had won over a large number of nobility from both the Stormlands and the Reach. They'd only brought their cavalry with them, and while that was a substantial addition to Stannis' cause, imagine if he'd been able to gather those nobles at Bitterbridge to summon their infantry as well. It would also have greatly hindered, and maybe even eliminated the Tyrells' ability to regroup, unite with Tywin Lannister, and ambush him at King's Landing. Hell, he might have even killed or captured Loras and Randyll instead of them capturing Parmen and Erren.

[John Suburbs]

Yeah, coulda would shoulda...

I surmise that his thinking was that he had enough to take KL, and once sitting on the IT he could deal with the other kings one by one. He didn't have any direct knowledge that LF was brokering a deal between Highgarden and CR, and Tywin's last known position was way up at Riverlands.

Also, KL is lightly defended, unlike Bitterbridge which still has a sizable host. So if he went after Loras and Tarley, he might have won, but he would have lost a sizeable chunk of his new-found army in exchange for a small town rather than the capital city.

 

[James Steller]

47 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Also, KL is lightly defended, unlike Bitterbridge which still has a sizable host. So if he went after Loras and Tarley, he might have won, but he would have lost a sizeable chunk of his new-found army in exchange for a small town rather than the capital city.

The point would be more that he defeats the Tyrells, by far his most numerous foes, and then he could proceed to King's Landing with impunity. His navy could block the harbour, the Reach forces reel back from Bitterbridge, Tywin is caught between Stannis, Edmure, Roose, and Robb, and not even wildfyre would prevent Stannis' victory.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

The point would be more that he defeats the Tyrells, by far his most numerous foes, and then he could proceed to King's Landing with impunity. His navy could block the harbour, the Reach forces reel back from Bitterbridge, Tywin is caught between Stannis, Edmure, Roose, and Robb, and not even wildfyre would prevent Stannis' victory.

If he won. Or even survived.

[James Steller]

1 hour ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

If he won. Or even survived.

Why wouldn't he? The camp was in disarray after the news broke that Renly was dead. Randyll and Loras would have just come in, so they could at least represent their own forces, but then there would be a lot of leaderless men whose lords had sided with Stannis. So now imagine if Stannis and those lords with their cavalry came riding over the hill. The chaos would have been beyond Randyll or Loras' ability to rally the army against Stannis.

[GallowsKnight]

I don't know if we know enough variables. 2 men can ride faster than 4000 using dismounts.

4,000 can move faster than 16k because of the foraging required.

Stannis could have still pursued them to Btterbridge only to find the army already in Randyl and Loras' hands. Then he has to force his Reachmen of untested loyalty against their Lord-Paramount.

I've often suggested Stannis should not have waited outside of Storm's End so long (2weeks). That if he moved faster and possibly missed the poor weather that delayed his ships he could have seized Kingslanding weeks prior to any Lannister Tyrell forces meeting in the field. But again I don't know how long it took to reorganize after Renly's death. That 2 weeks may have been a convenient excuse to cover gathering supplies, repairing ships, resting animals etc.

The most unbelievable thing about the battle of the Blackwater is the timing. The Lannister arriving at the perfect hour to catch Stannis mid assault. Had they been earlier/delayed by a few days they may have met Stannis with an intact army in the field or Stannis who holds the walls of Kingslanding. Other battles are realistic because they usually involve one army in a known place for a long time (Riverun, Oxcross, The Crossroads Inn etc) being attacked by another coming to find them. This strains credulity at times.

[Walda]

Yeah, but he was in it for the Kings Blood, and there was no Kings Blood at Bitterbridge.

He must have sent Parmen and Errol off to secure the host at Bitterbridge pretty much as soon as they arrived at his camp to tell him Renly was dead, and they seem to have left Renly's camp pretty much as soon as Renly died, too - Parmen was guarding the door when Brienne stepped in to squire for Renly, but gone by the time Emmon Cuy and Robar Royce heard her scream.

Anyhow, in spite of their being so quick off the mark, Loras found them and sent them on to Highgarden as prisoners. Luckily for them, he had cooled down enough to take prisoners. Also, as Petyr Baelish had left Kings Landing pretty much as soon as he heard Renly was dead, there is a fair chance that he was already at Bitterbridge when Loras (and Parmen and Erren) got there, with his guards and his tail of knights and his gold and his promises. There is no reason to suppose that Parmen and Erren would have secured a host that was more than half Tyrell anyway, even supposing Randyll hadn't killed their household guards.

Stannis was totally Honey Badger about this. Between the Lannister takeover of the Tyrell host at Bitterbridge, and the battle of Blackwater Rush, Tyrion says several times how glad he is that Stannis was dicking about at Storm's End while he gets Myrcella and Tommen out of Kings Landing, and his chain and his trebuchets up.(ACoK, Ch.17 Tyrion IV,Ch.25 Tyrion VI, Ch.41 Tyrion IX) Catelyn can't understand why he wanted Edric so badly (ACoK,Ch.39 Catelyn V, Ch.45 Catelyn VI). Mathis Rowen advised Renly to leave Stannis at Storms End and get Kings Landing while the time was ripe (ACoK, Ch.31 Catelyn III), Sallador Saan told Davos that King Stannis should strike at Kings Landing when the time really was ripe (ACoK,Ch.10 Davos I), when Stannis was writing of Cersei's incest, and Renly was travelling up the Rose Road to Horn Hill.

As Davos explained to Cressen in the prologue of Clash of Kings "The red woman has seen victory in her flames, so Stannis means to press his claim, no matter what the numbers." 

As Selyse elaborated earlier:

“How many swords will the Lord of Light put into my hand?” Stannis demanded again.
“All you need,” his wife promised. “The swords of Storm’s End and Highgarden for a start, and all their lords bannermen.”...
“Those swords are sworn to Renly. They love my charming young brother, as they once loved Robert … and as they have never loved me.”
“Yes,” she answered, “but if Renly should die …”...
“My brother is young and strong, and he has a vast host around him, and these rainbow knights of his.”
“Melisandre has gazed into the flames, and seen him dead.”(ACoK, Ch.00Prologue )

So Stannis was already seduced by Melisandre's assurances that he would get what was his by rights. I'm not sure the incredible coincidences of the Battle of Blackwater Rush are not a nod to the God of Fire, either.

There are a lot of deliberate nods to the God of Shadow in Whispering Wood, too.

[DigUpHerBones]

Quote

The most unbelievable thing about the battle of the Blackwater is the timing. The Lannister arriving at the perfect hour to catch Stannis mid assault. 

i have oft struggled with that scene...it was too perfect.

[mattnj81]

4 minutes ago, DigUpHerBones said:

i have oft struggled with that scene...it was too perfect.

If I recall correctly from the books, Tywins army was lurking in the King's Wood, waiting for the right time to strike. They may have been there for days. I could be wrong about that, it's been awhile since I read Clash.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

It would have been suicide. There was 60 thousand at Bitterbridge with an approaching 10k from Mace and around 5k with Loras, Tarly, Rowan and Oakheart who has a head start to Bitterbridge.

Bitterbridge is 730 miles away in the Tyrell ruled Reach. Stannis's army would have been decimated by the Tyrells.

Plus Stannis did not have the time to bring his entire army on that journey. It would mean attacking Kings Landing would be delayed by a couple of months.

 

[James Steller]

8 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

It would have been suicide. There was 60 thousand at Bitterbridge with an approaching 10k from Mace and around 5k with Loras, Tarly, Rowan and Oakheart who has a head start to Bitterbridge.

Bitterbridge is 730 miles away in the Tyrell ruled Reach. Stannis's army would have been decimated by the Tyrells.

Plus Stannis did not have the time to bring his entire army on that journey. It would mean attacking Kings Landing would be delayed by a couple of months.

 

First of all, a significant number of those 60 thousand troops would have joined Stannis or the lords who had crossed over to him. Including many Reach lords who joined his cause. Secondly, Mace's reinforcements were farther away than Stannis if he'd set out immediately after Loras and Randyll's four or five thousand loyalists.

True, it would have led to a serious battle, but I think Stannis would have had enough advantages to win it. He had most of the cavalry, his pursuit would have been unexpected since he was supposedly obsessed with besieging Storm's End, and the infantry would have either joined him or been confused by the news of Renly's death.

And as for the months-long delay? Well maybe it would have been a good thing if Stannis had delayed his attack. Robb would have gotten more time to raid the Westerlands, Edmure was holding the fords against Tywin, Roose held Harrenhal with the Stark infantry, and presumably the Tyrells would be in disarray. Stannis might have lost a lot of men at Bitterbridge if there was a battle, but he would have benefited from some time to let Tywin bleed against his enemies while the Starks and Tullys cemented their positions. Not to mention King's Landing would be going longer and longer without supplies that they need, which fuels more hate for Cersei and Tyrion.

[Boarsbane]

This would be a good way to get himself killed, we see how fast those men Stannis took from Renly switched back to the Tyrells, many of the men Stannis brought with him would join Loras and Randyll. Sending envoys makes more sense, but he still shouldn't of ignored the fact that those envoys never returned and marched on KL.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

9 minutes ago, James Steller said:

First of all, a significant number of those 60 thousand troops would have joined Stannis or the lords who had crossed over to him.

How do you figure that? The majority of those men would be Reach men, loyal to the Tyrells.

What is more likely to happen is what happened at the Blackwater, when much of Stannis' amry switched sides when faced with a larger army.

9 minutes ago, James Steller said:

 

Including many Reach lords who joined his cause.

Some Reach Lords, most notably his in-laws the Florents and their in-laws the Cranes.

Outside of the Florents the actual sigificant Houses, Rowan, Oakheart, Tarly and Hightower were all with Tyrell.

9 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Secondly, Mace's reinforcements were farther away than Stannis if he'd set out immediately after Loras and Randyll's four or five thousand loyalists.

No they were not. Look at the map, Highgarden is closer to Bitterbridge than Storm's End is.

9 minutes ago, James Steller said:

True, it would have led to a serious battle, but I think Stannis would have had enough advantages to win it.

Did he even have enough supplies to feed this army he had just acquired?

9 minutes ago, James Steller said:

 

He had most of the cavalry,

As was Loras, Tarly etc. and they set off first.

9 minutes ago, James Steller said:

 

his pursuit would have been unexpected since he was supposedly obsessed with besieging Storm's End,

But they clearly did not dawdle as those 4k reached Bitterbridge before the two messengers Stannis sent. There is little reason to expect that Stannis would have beaten them to Bitterbridge.

9 minutes ago, James Steller said:

and the infantry would have either joined him or been confused by the news of Renly's death.

The Reach infantry would have done whatever Loras, Lord Rowan, Lord Tarly and Lady Oakheart said. There is no reason for them to obey the Lord of Dragonstone.

 

[GallowsKnight]

15 hours ago, mattnj81 said:

If I recall correctly from the books, Tywins army was lurking in the King's Wood, waiting for the right time to strike. They may have been there for days. I could be wrong about that, it's been awhile since I read Clash.

There's not much evidence of this in the book. Stannis was camped there for 2 weeks. He's going to notice an 80k sized army eventually. They only managed to sneak up him because of the Mountain Clansmen.

6 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Some Reach Lords, most notably his in-laws the Florents and their in-laws the Cranes.

A significant number of Reach Lords. We know Hightower, Rowan, Tarly, Oakhart and Redwyne don't back Stannis. But there are a number of houses that do. Florent. The Fossoways (Green and Red). Crane. Willum. Varner. Meadows. Mullendore. Probably not a majority but a definitely significant chunk

The Following is some loose speculation.

We know Renly had 20k cavalry. 20% leave with Loras and Randyl. Leaving 16k with Stannis. Lets assume Renly took every available Stormland cavalry he could. We think the Stormlands has about 30,000 men. We know most armies (Renly's combined host, Robb and Tywins) have a horse to foot ratio of 1:3. So of that 16k, Renly could have a maximum of 7.5k Stormlord Cavalry

That means at least 12.5k were Reachmen. 4k of whom left with Randyl and Loras. So Stannis had at least 8.5 mounted Reachmen. Lords, Knights and their assorted men at arms.

If the Reach has a max forces of say 80,000. Their amount of Cavalry would be ~20,000. So Stannis may have taken at least over a third of the Reach's Lords and Knights with him. If the Reach's overall power is smaller than 80,000 that proportion increases to Stannis' benefit.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

1 hour ago, GallowsKnight said:

 

If the Reach has a max forces of say 80,000. Their amount of Cavalry would be ~20,000. So Stannis may have taken at least over a third of the Reach's Lords and Knights with him. If the Reach's overall power is smaller than 80,000 that proportion increases to Stannis' benefit.

but lets be fair, he took them over in some confusion. Loras, Tarly etc. rushed off as soon as possible and none knew that the Tyrells would get into bed with the Lannisters and be enemies of Stannis. Both Renly and Stannis has assembled an army to take Kings Landing, without any other orders why should many of those Reach Lords change their minds?

"I know you for a man of ambition," Ser Cortnay broke in. "A man who changes kings and gods the way I change my boots. As do these other turncloaks I see before me."

An angry clamor went up from the king's men. He is not far wrong, Davos thought. Only a short time before, the Fossoways, Guyard Morrigen, and the Lords Caron, Varner, Errol, and Estermont had all belonged to Renly."

 

I'd say it is more likely that the Reach Lords with Stannis would change sides when faced with the superior numbers and the fortification of Bitterbridge than the other way round. Tarly, Rowan and Loras would have enough prestige about them to keep their men in order.

 

[GallowsKnight]

Just now, thelittledragonthatcould said:

but lets be fair, he took them over in some confusion. Loras, Tarly etc. rushed off as soon as possible and none knew that the Tyrells would get into bed with the Lannisters and be enemies of Stannis. Both Renly and Stannis has assembled an army to take Kings Landing, without any other orders why should many of those Reach Lords change their minds?

"I know you for a man of ambition," Ser Cortnay broke in. "A man who changes kings and gods the way I change my boots. As do these other turncloaks I see before me."

An angry clamor went up from the king's men. He is not far wrong, Davos thought. Only a short time before, the Fossoways, Guyard Morrigen, and the Lords Caron, Varner, Errol, and Estermont had all belonged to Renly."

 

I'd say it is more likely that the Reach Lords with Stannis would change sides when faced with the superior numbers and the fortification of Bitterbridge than the other way round. Tarly, Rowan and Loras would have enough prestige about them to keep their men in order.

 

Oh I agree. I don't think he should have gone for bitterbridge too. Going for Kingslanding is the better option (just 2weeks earlier) that way he can cement their loyalty and damage the Lannister's prestige.