Assuming R+L=J, how will Jon's role change?

[Fox of House McCloud]

It seems like a major gamechanger at first, but I've been wondering what exactly the implications of Jon being the son of Rhaegar/Lyanna mean for Westeros (or, indeed, for all of GRRTH), and I think it'll prove a lot more intricate than some of us expect. Two main points I want to cover:

Does Jon have any claims?

If we accept that R+L=J, it means that Jon is Rhaegar's bastard. As a non-legitimized bastard, he has virtually no chance of inheritance. He might technically be the Targaryen heir to the Iron Throne following the death of Aegon and Daenerys (as he would be the only remaining Targaryen, bolstered by the fact that he has royal blood). Neither Dany or Aegon have any reason (or desire) to yield up their claim to the throne to another, and instead lust after it.

The flip side of the coin is the North, as Lyanna's bastard. Unfortunately, there are even more obstacles here - Ned has four remaining trueborn children (Bran, Rickon, Sansa and Arya), and only following the death of all four would Lyanna's trueborn children be able to succeed. Again, I'm not an expert on medieval politics, but even in the case that all other lines were extinguished (Brandon, Ned and Benjen), it still doesn't seem like Lyanna's bastard would become the heir to Winterfell.

So what does Jon's parentage mean in a political sense? As a bastard, even one born to such a powerful couple, he would not be able to inherit either of their domains.

As far as possible solutions to the bastard issue go, I only see two:

1) Rhaegar and Lyanna married in secret, following the abduction but prior to the Trident. This seems ridiculously unlikely - even if Rhaegar could have found a septon that would agree to marry them in secret, wouldn't he need an official annulment of his marriage with Elia through the faith? There's no way to do that secretly or quickly, and it would no doubt drive a massive divide between the Iron Throne and Dorne, let alone between Rhaegar's children through Elia/Lyanna. Nothing about a secret marriage makes sense from a political point of view.

2) The current king (Tommen, or whoever succeeds him if he dies/is discovered to be Jaime's bastard) legitimizes Jon. Which also makes very little sense - there are trueborn Starks in the North that would in all likelihood ally themselves with Jon either way, and would present a much simpler way to seize control. And on another level, legitimizing Jon would mean creating a rival to your claim on the Throne (for everyone besides Aegon, as Jon would still have a weaker claim than him). 

How will Jon prove his parentage?

At this point, it seems most likely that we (the readers) will learn the truth of Jon's parentage through either Bran and the weirwoods, Howland Reed, or (an outside possibility) Benjen. The word of Howland Reed or Benjen Stark would probably garner a bit of support (in the North), but it is hard to believe that any southern lords would believe this, that Ned Stark's bastard from ~16 years ago is actually the lovechild of Rhaegar and Lyanna, one of few remaining Targaryens (with royal blood flowing through his veins!) In all likelihood, this claim would simply be dismissed by all, in particular the households currently sitting the Iron Throne, as well as those trying to curry their favour. Bran's vision through the century-and-a-half year old Targaryen bastard would hold even less weight.

Outside of effectively (but not technically) proving it through feats such as dragon taming/riding, or even the hatching of dragon eggs, it seems to me that there is very little Jon can use to prove such a story. Even if he were to have the aforementioned interactions with dragons, how much of it would actually matter (I seem to remember that in TWoIaF, there is a brief passage where Aegon II held a sort of testing grounds to find able soldiers who can ride some of his currently riderless dragons into battle. Those who succeed in riding the dragons include commoners and those of minor houses, with no Targaryen ties at all, which indicates that dragon riding is not limited to those of Valyrian descent) Nor would Jon's role in the Prince who was Promised/Azor Ahai necessarily prove this claim - neither are specifically stated to be Targaryen/Valyrian (and in the case of the latter, the original Azor Ahai was YiTish). It may be revealed to the readers, but it seems unlikely that this would be accepted by any of the powerful Lords of Westeros.

tl;dr How much would R+L=J change Westeros? Jon would have an incredibly weak claim to the throne and an even weaker one to Winterfell than he has through Ned, if he were even able to convince people of his parentage. Would it simply be a plot device to tie Jon in to the three heads of the dragon, or to give him certain Targaryen traits (such as the ability to interact with dragons, possibly to aid in the eventual battle against the Others?)

Let me know if I have any glaring mistakes in my assertions/logic, I could be misinterpreting some of this.

[The Bold Wolf]

I don't find it far fetched at all to question whether Rhaegar married Lyanna. It's said in the books that Targaryen's were above the laws of God's and men. It wouldn't be that hard to find a Septon. There are septs and wandering Septons all about Westeros. Jon could very well be a true born son. The Kingsguard were at the Tower of Joy defending Lyanna, Rhaegars wife, and his true born son and now heir. With Aerys, Rhaegar, Aegon, and Rhaenys dead, they were protecting the heir to the Iron Throne. 

It's tough to say what Jon's role will be once his blood is revealed. His legitimacy will come into question. Not having the Valyrian traits will work against him. 

I do think that repeating the 'drop of dragon's blood' in Brown Ben Plumm, especially with Tyrion, would work for him though, when the dragon's take a liking to him. 

Maybe his role is to just defeat the others atop a dragon. Probably Rhaegal. 

[Fox of House McCloud]

15 minutes ago, The Bold Wolf said:

I don't find it far fetched at all to question whether Rhaegar married Lyanna. It's said in the books that Targaryen's were above the laws of God's and men. It wouldn't be that hard to find a Septon. There are septs and wandering Septons all about Westeros. Jon could very well be a true born son. The Kingsguard were at the Tower of Joy defending Lyanna, Rhaegars wife, and his true born son and now heir. With Aerys, Rhaegar, Aegon, and Rhaenys dead, they were protecting the heir to the Iron Throne. 

It's tough to say what Jon's role will be once his blood is revealed. His legitimacy will come into question. Not having the Valyrian traits will work against him. 

I do think that repeating the 'drop of dragon's blood' in Brown Ben Plumm, especially with Tyrion, would work for him though, when the dragon's take a liking to him. 

Maybe his role is to just defeat the others atop a dragon. Probably Rhaegal. 

I don't find it that far fetched that Rhaegar could find a septon to marry him to Lyanna, or that he could believe he is above the faith. The bigger problem is that Rhaegar obviously planned to survive the Trident, and the entirerty of Robert's Rebellion. Putting aside his Dornish wife for a Stark girl betrothed to a Baratheon (that in this hypothetical would be dead) would just send the realm into deeper into madness. He would be scorning Dorne by severing his marriage to Elia, relations with the Stormlands would go even farther down the drain (he kills the heir to Storm's End and marries his betrothed? That's not going to help things), the Starks and Baratheons presumably grow cold because of Lyanna's part in the marriage, and even men like Tywin could feel slighted (he had designs on marrying Cersei to Rhaegar - it's possible that if Rhaegar and the council ended up taking Aerys out of power, this proposal could come back on the table). The consequences of such a marriage would just massively dwarf whatever Rhaegar could hope to gain out of it (although I suppose the same sentiment would apply to his abduction of Lyanna, to a lesser extent). I suppose it's possible his plans regarding Lyanna could've changed as Robert's Rebellion progressed, though.

I agree that Jon's role is primarily going to be fighting the Others, rather than meddling in politics. Makes the most sense with the direction his character seems to be going.

[Mat92]

I think Jon's heritage is actually irrelevant. Robert won the throne through conquest - no Targs are rightfully owed the throne. Dany has to win by conquest if she want's to take back the Iron Throne (that's a discussion for another day...). 
In terms of the North, there are several Stark heirs. I know most people think they're all dead but I don't think that any of the houses would try and put Jon in charge of the North. 

If they can find one of them (the show suggests the first stark that pops back up) and Jon joins them to fight for the North - it's more likely that they'd follow him in battle considering 1) he's a bastard but he's trustworthy in this situation and 2) he has experience leading the NW. 

I don't think Jon will ever rule - he's instrumental to rallying and solidifying the North in preparation of the Long Night. 
I can't see any realistic scenarios where Jon's heritage becomes common knowledge and everyone believes it/would want to believe it.

[The Bold Wolf]

29 minutes ago, Fox of House McCloud said:

I don't find it that far fetched that Rhaegar could find a septon to marry him to Lyanna, or that he could believe he is above the faith. The bigger problem is that Rhaegar obviously planned to survive the Trident, and the entirerty of Robert's Rebellion. Putting aside his Dornish wife for a Stark girl betrothed to a Baratheon (that in this hypothetical would be dead) would just send the realm into deeper into madness. He would be scorning Dorne by severing his marriage to Elia, relations with the Stormlands would go even farther down the drain (he kills the heir to Storm's End and marries his betrothed? That's not going to help things), the Starks and Baratheons presumably grow cold because of Lyanna's part in the marriage, and even men like Tywin could feel slighted (he had designs on marrying Cersei to Rhaegar - it's possible that if Rhaegar and the council ended up taking Aerys out of power, this proposal could come back on the table). The consequences of such a marriage would just massively dwarf whatever Rhaegar could hope to gain out of it (although I suppose the same sentiment would apply to his abduction of Lyanna, to a lesser extent). I suppose it's possible his plans regarding Lyanna could've changed as Robert's Rebellion progressed, though.

I agree that Jon's role is primarily going to be fighting the Others, rather than meddling in politics. Makes the most sense with the direction his character seems to be going.

Rhaegar was entranced by the prince that was promised prophecy. He was trying to re-create the 3 heads of the dragon. He must have believed that in his and Lyanna's union, some form of the prophecy (the song of ice and fire) would come to fruition. Cleary Rhaegar didn't care about the fallout of his actions. 

[Greymoon]

imo, the knowledge of R+L will give Jon a good, legitimate reason to declare for fAegon.

After Stannis's defeat and Jon's return, the north will rise again and look for a leader. The Riverlands will too... If Jon and Sansa have any sense, they'll bend the knee to fAegon instead of taking up Robb's crown.... and if told the truth of Jon's birth, fAegon might acknowledge Jon as his "brother"....

In that case, it doesn't really matter whether Lyanna and Rhaegar were married or not. If fAegon is a popular/beloved King, all that matters in terms of Jon's status is fAegon's word on the subject. After the King's death, having been acknowledged as a son of Rhaegar, Jon could possibly take up fAegon's crown... 

So to answer the OP's questions....

"does Jon have any claims?" :  on the IT, as a Targaryen? probably, but the claim doesn't matter much unless Jon has an army, a figure of authority (a king/a septon/a maester), a council / loyal lords to back it up. And since the Targaryen dynasty was toppled, some would argue that only true born Baratheons have a claim on the IT anyway... Jon is more likely to have a claim on the north, by way of Robb's will.... and because the North Remembers.

"how will Jon prove his parentage?" Proof imo, is only necessary if you lack the army /  lords to back your claim.... Jon only needs to persuade the right people that he is a son of Rhaegar - namely, he needs to persuade Jon Connington (who in turns persuades fAegon). And I don't think Jon Connington will need much in terms of proof, before being convinced of Jon's parentage.

Connington was alive during the rebellion and knew Rhaegar much better than any other character still alive in the books. He also knows of Rhaegar's long absence from King's Landing, of Rhaegar's relationship to Elia Martell - and of Rhaegar's possible infatuation with Lyanna Stark.... so he has key elements in his hands, already.... further, if Jon Snow only looks a tiny little bit like Rhaegar, Connington is sure to notice...(hint in the text: Areo Hotah notes that all of the Sand Snakes have Prince Oberyn's eyes, and Connington compares fAegon's eyes to Rhaegar's, and finds that Rhaegar's were much darker).

And it would make some narrative sense, in a way, too. Connington was brought into the plot so he could vouch for fAegon's identity. Towards the end of Dance, we start having hints that Connington is not as much a fool as he appears, however, and that he might well know of the deception, but decided to go along with it.

With Jon Snow joining them and relying on Jon Connington to vouch for him, Connington would be in the very awkward position of putting a false Targaryen on the throne, while Rhaegar's true son is right there. And he couldn't just turn around and declare that fAegon is false - because at that point, declaring that fAegon is false would harm the war effot, discredit Connington - and put in question Jon Snow's parentage as well.

As to the last question, how will R+L change westeros....in terms of claims, it won't change much until fAegon is defeated...I'm of the opinion that Dany will come to westeros as an invader, a destroyer of the peace that "Good King Aegon crafted". If R+L=J results in Jon allying with fAegon and believing fAegon to be his brother and, if Dany kills fAegon.... it follows, that after fAegon's death, Dany and Jon fight each other.

Another small irony.

[norwaywolf123]

9 hours ago, Fox of House McCloud said:

It seems like a major gamechanger at first, but I've been wondering what exactly the implications of Jon being the son of Rhaegar/Lyanna mean for Westeros (or, indeed, for all of GRRTH), and I think it'll prove a lot more intricate than some of us expect. Two main points I want to cover:

Does Jon have any claims?

If we accept that R+L=J, it means that Jon is Rhaegar's bastard. As a non-legitimized bastard, he has virtually no chance of inheritance. He might technically be the Targaryen heir to the Iron Throne following the death of Aegon and Daenerys (as he would be the only remaining Targaryen, bolstered by the fact that he has royal blood). Neither Dany or Aegon have any reason (or desire) to yield up their claim to the throne to another, and instead lust after it.

The flip side of the coin is the North, as Lyanna's bastard. Unfortunately, there are even more obstacles here - Ned has four remaining trueborn children (Bran, Rickon, Sansa and Arya), and only following the death of all four would Lyanna's trueborn children be able to succeed. Again, I'm not an expert on medieval politics, but even in the case that all other lines were extinguished (Brandon, Ned and Benjen), it still doesn't seem like Lyanna's bastard would become the heir to Winterfell.

So what does Jon's parentage mean in a political sense? As a bastard, even one born to such a powerful couple, he would not be able to inherit either of their domains.

As far as possible solutions to the bastard issue go, I only see two:

1) Rhaegar and Lyanna married in secret, following the abduction but prior to the Trident. This seems ridiculously unlikely - even if Rhaegar could have found a septon that would agree to marry them in secret, wouldn't he need an official annulment of his marriage with Elia through the faith? There's no way to do that secretly or quickly, and it would no doubt drive a massive divide between the Iron Throne and Dorne, let alone between Rhaegar's children through Elia/Lyanna. Nothing about a secret marriage makes sense from a political point of view.

2) The current king (Tommen, or whoever succeeds him if he dies/is discovered to be Jaime's bastard) legitimizes Jon. Which also makes very little sense - there are trueborn Starks in the North that would in all likelihood ally themselves with Jon either way, and would present a much simpler way to seize control. And on another level, legitimizing Jon would mean creating a rival to your claim on the Throne (for everyone besides Aegon, as Jon would still have a weaker claim than him). 

Even if Rhaegar married Lyanna, Jon would be illegitimate since the Faith of the Seven doesn't approve of polygamy.

9 hours ago, Fox of House McCloud said:

How will Jon prove his parentage?

At this point, it seems most likely that we (the readers) will learn the truth of Jon's parentage through either Bran and the weirwoods, Howland Reed, or (an outside possibility) Benjen. The word of Howland Reed or Benjen Stark would probably garner a bit of support (in the North), but it is hard to believe that any southern lords would believe this, that Ned Stark's bastard from ~16 years ago is actually the lovechild of Rhaegar and Lyanna, one of few remaining Targaryens (with royal blood flowing through his veins!) In all likelihood, this claim would simply be dismissed by all, in particular the households currently sitting the Iron Throne, as well as those trying to curry their favour. Bran's vision through the century-and-a-half year old Targaryen bastard would hold even less weight.

Outside of effectively (but not technically) proving it through feats such as dragon taming/riding, or even the hatching of dragon eggs, it seems to me that there is very little Jon can use to prove such a story. Even if he were to have the aforementioned interactions with dragons, how much of it would actually matter (I seem to remember that in TWoIaF, there is a brief passage where Aegon II held a sort of testing grounds to find able soldiers who can ride some of his currently riderless dragons into battle. Those who succeed in riding the dragons include commoners and those of minor houses, with no Targaryen ties at all, which indicates that dragon riding is not limited to those of Valyrian descent) Nor would Jon's role in the Prince who was Promised/Azor Ahai necessarily prove this claim - neither are specifically stated to be Targaryen/Valyrian (and in the case of the latter, the original Azor Ahai was YiTish). It may be revealed to the readers, but it seems unlikely that this would be accepted by any of the powerful Lords of Westeros.

tl;dr How much would R+L=J change Westeros? Jon would have an incredibly weak claim to the throne and an even weaker one to Winterfell than he has through Ned, if he were even able to convince people of his parentage. Would it simply be a plot device to tie Jon in to the three heads of the dragon, or to give him certain Targaryen traits (such as the ability to interact with dragons, possibly to aid in the eventual battle against the Others?)

Let me know if I have any glaring mistakes in my assertions/logic, I could be misinterpreting some of this.

I don't think that Jon will ever prove his parentage. It is more an easter egg for the readers. I think he will play the role of Cregan Stark and Brandon the Builder.

Cregan: Jon will march south inorder to support one of the sides Dany VS fAegon, so the realm can focus on the Whitewalkers.

Brandon the Builder: Jon will take over the new nights watch or pact with the COTF.

[norwaywolf123]

7 hours ago, Mat92 said:

I think Jon's heritage is actually irrelevant. Robert won the throne through conquest - no Targs are rightfully owed the throne. Dany has to win by conquest if she want's to take back the Iron Throne (that's a discussion for another day...). 
In terms of the North, there are several Stark heirs. I know most people think they're all dead but I don't think that any of the houses would try and put Jon in charge of the North. 

If they can find one of them (the show suggests the first stark that pops back up) and Jon joins them to fight for the North - it's more likely that they'd follow him in battle considering 1) he's a bastard but he's trustworthy in this situation and 2) he has experience leading the NW. 

I also agree that Jon's heritage is irrelevant for future plots. I think the name "a song of ice and fire" just refers to who will rally the realm against the Whitewalkers. Jon might also die against the Boltons? Or maybe Ramsay Bolton will give him the Theon Greyjoy Reek treatment.

Val said she might have to geld Jon since he broke his vows with ygritte and broke Ygrittes heart. Maybe that is foreshadowing for Ramsay gelding Jon? If he was gelded he would only have duty left.

Even besides Eddards brood, there are other houses who have intermarried with the starks.

 

Jon is:

a Bastard

a Deserter

7 hours ago, Mat92 said:

I don't think Jon will ever rule - he's instrumental to rallying and solidifying the North in preparation of the Long Night. 
I can't see any realistic scenarios where Jon's heritage becomes common knowledge and everyone believes it/would want to believe it.

This seems likely to me too.