The Republic of Littlefinger Theory

[thought_criminal22]

After several years of lurking on the forums, I believe I have something to contribute...

The Republic of Littlefinger Theory

 

I have long chafed at the public perception of the realm’s most humble hero, Lord Petyr Baelish of Harrenhal, known by the vulgar title of ‘Littlefinger’ to the uneducated and uncouth.

            Too many have ascribed to him the typical fantasy trope of the mustache-twirling villain scheming purely out of greed and ambition, one whose only desire is to watch the world collapse in chaos around him while he cleans up. Our author does not follow typical tropes, and Littlefinger is far too interesting a character to have a vague, simplistic goal. I am here to present an alternative for your approval.

I will argue that Lord Baelish’s goal is to install a republican form of government in Westeros.

PART 1: DEFINING MOTIVATION, MEANS, & GOAL

In preparing this argument, I have come across a common problem in the various discussions of Lord Baelish. This is a problem with confusion of motivation, means, and goal. So far, I have yet to find a well-articulated theory that unequivocally posits Petyr Baelish’s goal. There are many theories that establish revenge, greed, or ambition as driving forces in Petyr’s actions. And there are plenty of arguments that convincingly outline Petyr’s role in starting the War of the Five Kings.

But vengeance, greed, and ambition are not goals. These are motivations that drive action. And beginning the War of the Five Kings is not a goal, either. The war and the chaos it brings achieves nothing in and of itself, and must be a means to some end.

I will be clear and concise.

A.    Lord Baelish’s MOTIVATION is vengeance against the existing power structures of Westeros, particularly the hierarchies of landed nobility, which hurt and inhibited him in his childhood.

B.    His MEANS of vengeance is to indebt the realm to the Iron Bank of Braavos and ensure default on the debt, thereby giving the Iron Bank a casus belli and claim on the Iron Throne.

C.    His GOAL is to incite a Braavosi invasion of Westeros that will result in a reorganization of Westerosi feudal society based on Braavosi republicanism (With Baelish as their installed representative overseeing the process as Lord Protector.)

PART 2: ESTABLISHING MOTIVE

Readers of A Song of Ice and Fire are at a disadvantage when it comes to understanding Lord Baelish’s motives. George R.R. Martin has yet to release a POV chapter from his perspective. In the moments when Petyr does explain himself, the reader must ask if they can trust the explanations he is giving. Lord Baelish is one of the top five players in the game of thrones, and specializes in confusing potential adversaries. Even Lord Varys, in a moment of candor with his closest associate, admits he is flummoxed by Petyr’s actions. So any theories concerning Petyr Baelish require flexibility as far as evidence is concerned.

But Lord Baelish’s motivation is not impenetrable. First we must ask a few basic questions.

A: Is Petyr Baelish greedy? That is, is he in this game for accruing wealth? I do not believe so. Petyr Baelish is a man of simple tastes. He isn’t a drunkard. He does not dress in too much finery. He owns a brothel but we never see him partake in whoring. If he only wanted to accrue wealth, he couldn’t do much better than becoming Master of Coin and embezzling away the crown’s finances, which he appeared to have been doing for years. Why is he abandoning this office in order to pursue more dangerous goals such as the Sansa/Alayne Gambit?

B: Is Petyr Baelish power-hungry? That is, is he in this game simply to gain power? Again, I do not believe so. If he wanted to gain more power, he would not have left King’s Landing, the seat of power. By leaving King’s Landing, he gives up his ability to influence the Small Council, the King, and the King’s Hand, he gives up being present for the most important decisions in the realm, and he essentially surrenders initiative to Varys or any other potential adversary.

Further, by refusing to take his position in Harrenhal, Lord Baelish is setting aside real legal power in order to play a dangerous game tip-toeing around the Lords Declarant in the Vale. It appears that Petyr’s power grabs are not for their own sake, but in pursuit of a particular goal (Which, it is fair to say, could be more power. This theory does not discount this possibility, it only downplays any power ambition in favor of another motivation.)

C: Is Petyr Baelish vengeful? Yes. Lord Baelish remembers hurts and seeks revenge. In the regicide of Mad King Joffrey, Petyr Baelish could have easily set up Ser Dontos Hollard as his patsy. Ser Dontos had ample motive and opportunity and came from a traitor house, it would have been easy to frame him. Instead, Lord Baelish goes out of his way to ensure Tyrion Lannister is charged with the King’s murder. Why? Because Tyrion embarrassed Petyr by including him in the machinations of the Myrcella Marriage Gambit (You might say it was to ensure Sansa’s widowhood, but a coerced and unconsummated marriage is easily set aside. Tyrion’s life is inconsequential to Sansa’s marital status.)

Further, Petyr has a habit of killing those who threaten Sansa: King Joffrey (who beat and humiliated her,) Lady Lysa (attempted murder,) and Marillion (attempted rape.) I believe that Petyr cares deeply for Sansa, and is driven to passionate vengeance against whoever hurts her.

The assassination of King Joffrey and the murder of Lady Lysa add unnecessary risk to Peytr’s plans. It’s one thing to ask co-conspirators to help you rescue a maiden held against her will as hostage to a brutal king, it is quite another to ask them to help you murder the King, especially if you “have no motive” as Petyr claims (any attempt to justify the assassination of Joffrey as a way to generate chaos falters at the gate. Joffrey was a force for chaos. If anything, killing Joffrey stabilized the realm.)

The murder of Lady Lysa comes off especially passionate. Petyr murders his wife in front of two witnesses, one he has no reason to believe will cooperate with a cover-up (Marillion) and another who has proved herself incompetent at the game of thrones (Sansa/Alayne.) This was not a well-planned assassination, this was an act of unrestrained retribution for Lysa’s violence against Sansa. Petyr was lucky Sansa took to the role of Alayne Stone and that he could coerce Marillion into cooperation through torture (other theories about Marillion’s motives notwithstanding.)

We have seen Petyr favor vengeance over power ambition because of the unnecessary risks he’s taken pursuing it. So if vengeance is his primary motivation, who is he taking vengeance against with his overall plan? It cannot be the late Brandon Stark, who wounded Lord Baelish in a duel and took his lady love. Nor does it appear to be Hoster Tully, who forbade Petyr from marrying his daughter and then exiled him to the Fingers after the pregnancy of Lady Lysa.

What about Ned, is Petyr driven to jealous rage by Catelyn’s love for the Lord of the North? Surely he is; but Petyr’s offer to work with Ned just before the failed coup seems like a genuine one. And if he wanted Ned dead, he could have justifiably killed him during the coup, instead of ensuring his safe capture.

But I believe Petyr can see that individuals are not who hurt him. Cat did not choose Brandon or Ned, they were chosen for her by Hoster. And Hoster couldn’t marry Cat to Petyr, it would have hurt the standing of his house. Ned Stark had no more choice in the matter than Cat did. It wasn’t Brandon’s blade that hurt Lord Baelish, it was the system of feudal hierarchy that killed his chances of marrying his one true love. It is not people he’s plotting against, but the entire power structure of Westeros he hopes to bring down.

EVIDENCE

A: Petyr’s Association with the Middle-Class of Westeros

If Lord Baelish were plotting against the upper echelon of Westerosi nobility, you would expect him to have few or no allies within that class of people. Rather, you would expect him to conspire with people who would benefit from his end goal. And Petyr surrounds himself with middle-class people of high talent, the people who would stand to benefit most from a republican form of government and the fall of the established feudal hierarchy.

One such talented middle-class person is Ser Lothor Brune, and through analysis of his character one may guess at a higher purpose in Petyr’s plotting. Ser Lothor is, by all appearances, absolutely loyal to Lord Baelish. And Lord Baelish, by all appearances, absolutely trusts Lothor Brune. Lothor knows Alayne Stone’s true identity, as well as the crime she’s accused of. This doesn’t appear to bother Lord Baelish, who once cautioned Ned Stark against this kind of trust, and he allays Sansa’s fears concerning Ser Lothor by assuring her that Oswell (another apparently loyal middle-class associate of Petyr’s) is watching him, and Ser Lothor is watching Oswell (which may very well be true.)

The audience doesn’t know what Lord Baelish has offered Ser Lothor in exchange for his service, but it cannot be wealth or titles. Queen Cersei will match any offer Petyr made. If Ser Lothor handed Sansa over to the crown, he would have his rewards sooner without needing to rely on Petyr’s serpentine plots. Whatever Lord Baelish is planning, Brune BELIEVES in it. Further, the Brunes are one of the old families out of Crackclaw Point, and we know from Nimble Dick’s ramblings that Crackclaw folk have an independent streak. A republican form of government would be appealing to this culture.

In Tyrion IV ACoK, Tyrion notes Lord Baelish has placed his own people in many key positions in the bureaucracy. These positions include: the King’s Counter, the King’s Scales, all four Keepers of the Keys, all the mint managers, and 90% of the harbormasters, tax farmers, customs agents, wool factors, toll collectors, pursers, and wine factors of the Crownlands. Tyion notes that these men are mostly made up of people from the Westerosi middle-class and foreigners, all of them with superior talent to the highborns they’d replaced.

B: Petyr’s Braavosi Connections

This theory requires Petyr to have a well-funded military ally to enforce his end goal, in this case the Free City of Braavos.

While the origins of Petyr’s foreign officers in Tyrion IV ACoK is not explicitly delineated, it is not out of the question for them to be largely Braavosi (an influx of Braavosi in King’s Landing would also help justify the presence of Syrio Forell, whose residency in the capital remains unexplained.) This is purely speculation, but speculation informed by several connections Lord Baelish has with the Secret City.

Petyr himself comes from Braavosi stock through his great grandfather, a sellsword in the service of the Corbrays. Petyr may have family contacts in Braavos, and perhaps his Braavosi heritage makes him more appealing to contacts in the Iron Bank or other guilds within the Secret City. If Petyr’s plan involves Braavosi cooperation, he has advantages toward acquiring friends there.

Further evidence of a Braavosi connection can be found in the behavior of the Merling King. Following the Regicide of Mad King Joffrey, Lord Baelish takes Sansa aboard the Merling King (Sansa VI ASoS.) Not only is the King a Braavosi trading galley, but her first destination following the death of the King is the Free City of Braavos, with a difficult and dangerous side-trip to the Fingers to drop off Lord Baelish at his boyhood home. This side-trip, by the way, costs the ship several crewmembers with no chance to offload or take on any cargo. The captain risked all in order to deliver Petyr to the Fingers. Is this because Petyr paid him or because the captain is working with Petyr towards his ultimate goal? If Petyr is merely paying the captain, the same problem as the Lothor Brune situation arises. It is much more likely the captain of Merling King is on board with Petyr’s plans.

After dropping off Petyr, the King departs for Braavos. I believe this is to inform Lord Baelish’s co-conspirators in Braavos of the death of the King so they can prepare the next phase of the operation on their end, whatever that may be. In Alayne II AFfC, Oswell Kettleblack returns to the Eyrie from Gulltown, and he comes with news from the Merling King. I believe this to be correspondence from Lord Baelish’s people in Braavos, though I would not hazard a guess as to the content of the news. Remember, it was Oswell who went to Braavos to hire dwarf entertainers for the Purple Wedding, evidence that Petyr often sends people to correspond with Braavos.

C: Petyr’s Hostility against the Upper Echelon

A third factor we would expect to see if this theory were true would be hostility from Lord Baelish toward highborns. Gathering evidence for this is tricky, as all the chapters dealing with Petyr come from the POV of said highborns, and Lord Baelish is a master at hiding his intentions from his adversaries. Therefore, the evidence for Lord Baelish’s hostility to highborns is tangential and indirect at best, so I will be brief (Note: I understand that Petyr Baelish is technically ‘highborn’ because of his minor noble status, I use the word in this context to denote the oldest and most powerful families of Westeros, the ones who would lose the most in a Republican system. I prefer the term ‘middle class’ to describe Petyr’s place in Westerosi society.)

The clearest picture of Lord Baelish’s hostile attitude toward highborns comes from his relationship with Lord Eddard Stark. Nearly every interaction between the two men results in a hidden or half-hidden insult from Petyr to Ned. He smiles through his teeth and plays with Ned, up until the moment when he puts a dagger at the Lord’s throat. However, this antagonism might be from jealousy, considering Ned is married to the object of Petyr’s affection.

In Sansa VI ASoS, Petyr makes an offhand comment concerning the character of Queen Regent Cersei: “Her strength rests on her beauty, her birth, and riches. Only the first of those is truly her own, and it will soon desert her.” Of the three items in this list, only riches are something a person can control. One does not choose to be beautiful or highborn. Petyr grants Cersei her beauty, but denies her birth. In this way, he explains that high birth is not an intrinsic value belonging to a person, but a value held up by societal structures.    

Petyr’s attitude toward Sansa can be confusing. He clearly cares for her, and whether the source of that caring is a creepy physical attraction, a creepier projection of Catelyn upon her daughter, or something else, it is important to answer one question regarding their relationship: why doesn’t Petyr reveal the entirety of his plan to Sansa? She clearly has nowhere else to go, and she appears to be grateful for Petyr’s work in removing her from King’s Landing. She even cooperates with the lies surrounding the murder of her aunt. But despite this, Petyr only gives her limited information.

The problem is that Sansa is still the enemy in Petyr’s plans. Sansa comes from an upper echelon family, an old and powerful house that stands to lose much in his world. It is doubtful that someone born as noble as Sansa could comprehend what a republic is. Republicanism and the egalitarianism it would bring are radical departures from the established order of their society.

As such, Sansa Stark will always be a potential enemy to Lord Baelish. But Alayne Stone, she is sure to be a steadfast ally. There is a theory in psychology that acting a part tends to turn a person’s inner character towards that part. It’s the reason David Chapell stepped away from his comedy, and some believe that George Carlin’s comedic style of bitter ranting turned him into a bitter man over the course of his career. In A Song of Ice and Fire, Arya does it to herself in order to survive, becoming Arry, Nan, Weasel, Salty, and no-one as needed. Wargs are warned that staying too long in their beasts will turn them bestial when they come back to their own skins (Prologue ADwD.)

As Alayne, she manages a household, serves Sweetrobin, deals with the smallfolk, and is treated the way a bastard daughter of a minor nobleman would be treated. Petyr gave Alayne a Braavosi background as the granddaughter of a merchant prince (Tying into the Braavos connections.) This takes Sansa from the upper echelon of society down to the lower middle-class.

Lord Baelish is shaping Alayne into a woman who will support his middle-class agenda. He needs Sansa to be Alayne so that she wants what Petyr wants. Is there any evidence of this? Yes. We would expect Petyr to increase his trust in Sansa as she increased in her role as Alayne. And Lord Baelish tells Alayne of the Harold Hardyng Gambit only once she has played the part for some time, such that her chapter titles have changed to reflect the change occurring in her character (Alayne II AFfC.) This is a violent attack against nobility, taking one of the most highborn women in Westeros and essentially turning her lowborn.

PART 3: ESTABLISHING MEANS

With Lord Baelish’s motivation established, let us move to the means by which he seeks his goals.

A: The Iron Bank & Braavos

Braavos was formed from the escaped slaves of Old Valyria. Often called the secret city, it existed for a hundred years hidden in the mists of its harbor before unmasking itself to the world and rising to become the most powerful of all the Free Cities (much like Lord Baelish shall do at the appointed time.) Most important for this argument, Braavos is a republic.

Though we do not yet fully understand the politics of Braavos, we do know it is a republic that elects its leader. Republics, generally, offer a way for those as capable as Petyr Baelish to bloodlessly rise in power, regardless of who they were born to. But whatever the internal mechanics of Braavosi republicanism, it is doubtless the Iron Bank of Braavos that remains the most important institution in the city.

For five books now, the Iron Bank has been a loaded Chekhov’s Gun. We are told repeatedly that the Iron Bank will have its due, that they’re not to be dismissed lightly, that Westeros is three million golden dragons in debt to them, and that Queen Regent Cersei has been treating the debt collectors with contempt. Further, when Arya first enters Braavos, the audience gets a glimpse of Braavosi military might, including the Arsenal of Braavos, a complex capable of building an entire warship in a single day. It is my belief that Lord Baelish intends to turn this military might against the Iron Throne.

But what could motivate Braavos to invade Westeros? In Dance, we hear from Illyrio Mopatis: “Slavery is forbidden in Pentos, by the terms of the treaty the Braavosi imposed on us a hundred years ago.” (ADwD Tyrion I) In the context of their conversation, it is a slimy excuse to explain how Illyrio, a man who is clearly a slaveholder, is not a slaveholder. But in the wider context of worldbuilding, this line establishes that Braavos is a country willing to go to war to impose its societal values on other sovereign states.

Historically speaking, there is a marginal difference between slave societies like you find in Slaver’s Bay and societies of feudalism such as Westeros. There are no chains, no overseers, and no flesh markets in King’s Landing, but these are only the visible hallmarks of chattel slavery. Peasants in feudal societies are tied to the land, and lands belong to lords. When a Westerosi lord makes mention of “my smallfolk,” the possessive sense is meant to be taken literally.

A lord expects peasants to work his land and hand over the vast majority of the fruits without complaint. Anything outside of total cooperation is viewed as rebellion and crushed by knights in the lord’s service. At any time, a lord may decide to raise a levy within his territory and force able-bodied men to fight for him. Refusing to join the levy is rebellion and punishable by death. The freedom of smallfolk (called villeins or serfs historically) is entirely curtailed. They are unable to leave a lord’s lands without their lord’s consent.

This is a step above slavery, but a freer society like Braavos will still look down at the practices of the Westerosi highborns. And, if there is enough potential profit from it, could use this as a casus belli for war against the Seven Kingdoms. The potential profit may come from increased access to Westerosi timber resources, a commodity Samwell Tarley notes is particularly rare in Braavos (This type of resource war would mirror 20^th century wars waged for increased access to oil.)

B: The Crown Debt

A second, and more legal, casus belli for the Braavosi invasion will come from a default of Westerosi crown debt to the Iron Bank. This debt was built primarily by Lord Baelish, and he put in safeguards to ensure it would never be paid.

In Eddard IV AGoT, Ned Stark learns that the Crown is over six million golden dragons in debt, and half of that debt belongs to the Iron Bank. The other sizable portions of the debt are owed to the Faith of Seven and the Lannisters. This debt is difficult to explain. There has been no war since the Greyjoy Rebellion, and King Robert’s tourneys and feasts are insufficient to explain the massive debt. A likely explanation is that Petyr has been finding ways to drive up debt by increasing expenditures within the city, while simultaneously increasing the incomes to justify his position as Master of Coin.

We find some evidence for this in Jaime I AFfC, when Chief Undergaoler Rennifer Longwaters explains to Jaime the hierarchy of the Black Cells and dungeons of the Red Keep. There is a massive disparity between the number of prisoners held in the dungeons and the numbers of gaolers hired to watch them. The best explanation for this is Petyr Baelish placing his people in every nook and cranny he could fit them, using borrowed crown money to secure their positions for the coming Republican Revolution.

A default on the debt would grant the Iron Bank the legal right to seek recompense from the defaulting party. In this case, the crown itself would be used as collateral for the debt. The merchant princes of Braavos would rouse themselves for war through the prospect of freeing the people of Westeros from the tyranny of feudalism (Opening up the lucrative markets of Westeros notwithstanding.) Between the Iron Bank and the Braavosi Navy, there is plenty of men, material, and ships to support a Westerosi Republican Revolution.

A potential problem with the theory is the Iron Bank’s decision to lend money to King Stannis’ cause. Why would they do this if they were planning on financing the Republican Revolution? A possible explanation is that it allows the Iron Bank to justify the presence of mercenary companies in Westeros prior to Braavosi intervention. By this I mean that the sellswords in Stannis’ pay are ultimately loyal to whoever pays them, and Stannis is essentially a middleman for money flowing from the Iron Bank to the sellswords.

At the outset of the Republican Revolution, these mercenary companies would be in a position to turn cloak, destroy the last of the Baratheons, and wage a Northern Campaign to secure Winterfell for the Republicans. When the Northern Lords see Sansa by the side of the Republican leaders, they may support the Republican cause. Besides, the independent streak found in the Northmen is likely to slant Republican anyways, especially among the Northern Mountain Clans.

C: The War Plan

Lord Baelish needs to participate in an orgy of violence in order to become the Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Protector of the Vale. He murders Lord Arryn, betrays Lord Stark, incites bloody riots, fights at the Blackwater, attempts to kill Tyrion Lannister on at least one occasion, and finally murders Lady Lysa Tully. This violence is necessary in order to effect change because it’s the way Westerosi government works. The maintenance and modification of the status quo is done through force of arms.

Appreciable differences in the shape of Westerosi society have, by and large, come through catastrophic warfare. The Seven Kingdoms became one through the violence of dragonfire. The Targaryen dynasty fell through the violence of the Rebellion. And anyone attempting to alter the status quo has required armies to do so. In the past century, Westeros has experienced at least eight such conflicts (Five Blackfyre Rebellions, Robert’s Rebellion, Greyjoy Rebellion, War of the Five Kings) with a ninth on the way (Invasion of Aegon VI.)

We have yet to hear of any such internal warfare in the Free City of Braavos, however. This is because republics uniquely offer a chance for bloodless coups at appointed times. It is much easier and much safer for someone to win an election than it is to win a rebellion, and this is the advantage republicanism brings to the table.

But to get there, it will require a forceful overthrow of the status quo, just as has occurred for centuries in Westeros. And Braavos, while mighty among the Free Cities, is not powerful enough to wage the war on its own. So Petyr must do two things: 1) Find allies among the Westerosi and 2) Weaken the integrity of the Iron Throne’s military power.

Preston Jacobs, a widely known YouTube commentator for the A Song of Ice and Fire books, has a multi-part video series detailing the Littlefinger Debt Scheme. While I do not subscribe to the entirety of the theory, there are several aspects of his analysis I would like to use here.

Firstly, Jacobs deftly identifies the size and scope of Lord Baelish’s role in indebting the major houses of the realm. Among the most prominent of these debtors is Lord Randyl Tarly of Horn Hill. If Jacobs is correct in assessing that Randyl is in trouble with the Iron Bank, it would mean that arguably the best pure military leader in Westeros could fight against the Iron Throne in exchange for debt forgiveness.

Some might wonder if Tarly would turn cloak against the Tyrells and the crown, but Tarly’s loyalty could be stretched thin if presented evidence that King Tommen was a bastard born of incest and the Tyrells continued to support his claim. Granted, Tarly does not seem to possess any sort of republican character. But in the absence of a king with a good claim, he would likely revert to fighting for his own self-interest (Stannis’ claim notwithstanding.) His presence in Maidenpool, across the Bay of Crabs from the Vale, gives Petyr opportunity to prove Tommen’s illegitimacy (With Mya Stone and the Baratheon family tapestries provided by Cersei.)

Secondly, Jacobs identified a number of Vale houses who are actively cooperating with Petyr Baelish. This cooperation is measured by the attendance of Lord Lyonel Corbray’s wedding to a Gulltown merchant’s daughter, a wedding brokered by Lord Baelish (Noteworthy for investing a powerful Vale house into a middle-class family.) This wedding is attended by the heads of House Belmore and House Lynderly, and together with House Corbray form a daisy chain of castles cooperating with Lord Baelish along a major river of the Vale, which Martin has yet to name. From here on I shall refer to this river as the Strongheart River (After the castles Strongsong and Heart’s Home.) 

The Strongheart River cuts deep into the Vale until it nearly reaches the border of the Riverlands. If this map from the Lands of Ice and Fire map set is accurate, there is no high mountain range preventing passage from the source of this river into the heart of Westeros. Note also that the mouth of this river is just due West of Braavos. Using the Strongheart River, the Braavosi Navy could ship men, material, and supplies for an invasion directly into central Westeros, where they could easily march to either Riverrun or Harrenhal to set up a forward base of operations and begin their war from a fortified location (Potentially leading to Petyr taking vengeance against the Freys for the murder of Catelyn, or an interaction between Petyr and Lady Stoneheart.)

I’ve already made mention of the men Lord Baelish installed in the Crownlands during his time as Master of Coin (Tyrion IV ACoK.) During Petyr’s absence, it is possible that a few of these people will be replaced. But Tyrion notes that Baelish’s men are more capable than the highborns that came before them. And so long as the crown treasury benefits from their presence there is little reason to believe a majority of them will be removed. During Lord Baelish’s Republican Revolution, these men are in a perfect place to A) Shut down roads, harbors, and lines of communication in the Crownlands, causing confusion among loyalist forces, Secure supplies for the republicans while denying them to the loyalists, and C) establish a stable transitional government once King’s Landing is secure.

 With these potential allies in place, how does Petyr weaken the integrity of the Iron Throne’s military power? He already has. It is a well-accepted axiom of the ASoIaF community that it was Petyr Baelish who started the War of the Five Kings (It is known.) By the end of the War, houses Stark, Baratheon, Tully, and Arryn are in shambles. The Greyjoys remain in open rebellion despite the death of their king. The only great houses remaining to defend the crown are houses Lannister, Tyrell, and Martell. And a single offhand comment from Lord Baelish may betray his part in ensuring the destruction of that troika as well.

In Alayne II AFfC, Petyr remarks that what little peace the five kings left the realm will not long survive the three queens. Much ink has been spilt debating over the identities of these queens, so I will be brief. I believe he is speaking of Queen Regent Cersei, Queen Margery, and Princess Myrcella. These three would be the figureheads in a three-way civil war between the standing great houses of Westeros: Cersei for Lannister, Margery for Tyrell, and Myrcella for Martell.

While Cersei and Margery are obvious candidates for this list, Myrcella’s role is not as simple. How would Petyr know about the plot to raise Myrcella as a figurehead for Dornish rebellion? If we take a clue from the Merling King’s cargo at face value (Sansa V ASoS,) it appears that Petyr just arrived in Blackwater Bay from Dorne. The King is holding oranges and pomegranates, fruits that do not keep for months at a time and are grown in warmer climes such as Lys, Tyrosh, and Dorne. I do not believe Petyr would cross the Narrow Sea so close to the Purple Wedding. He would want to remain in Westeros so he could keep apprised of the situation in King’s Landing.

So what was he doing in Dorne? I wouldn’t hazard a guess. But the Dornishmen are independent by nature, and cannot be measured by the other Westerosi kingdoms. They are an independence-minded nation, who tolerate female inheritance and non-cis sexualities. It is possible he has allies in Dorne willing to participate in the Republican Revolution who would have knowledge of the plot to raise a rebellion in Myrcella’s name.

If this is the case, then Petyr has a plan for weakening the remaining three great houses of Westeros. The Reach would likely suffer the brunt of the casualties, being stuck between Dorne, the Westerlands, and the invading Ironmen. The Westerlands have already spent much of their strength in their wars against Stannis and the Young Wolf. And Dorne is the weakest of the Seven Kingdoms by Prince Doran’s own admission.

I believe that once this period of civil war starts winding down, that is when Petyr will initiate the Republican Revolution.

PART 4: Establishing Goals

 I believe Lord Baelish is working toward 4 primary goals.

A: Destroy the Existing Power Structure of Westeros

This is in retribution for the hurts done to him and the limits placed on him by the system.

B: Establish a new Republican Order in Westeros

This allows him to rise as high as his talent will allow him to.

C: Become Equivalent to the Hand of the President

Petyr knows he is the most talented schemer in Westeros, and wants to have the power of the Hand of the King. I do not believe he wishes to be the visible scion of power, and he may in fact limit the powers of the president/lord protector/prime minister in order to appear like he is establishing a freer form of government.

D: Create a Place for Alayne Stone

There is some end he has in mind for Sansa, as either his daughter so he can live like he and Catelyn ended up together, or as his wife so he can live as though he and Catelyn ended up together.

[Ebrose]

Interesting idea, which I will keep in mind in my re-read. Littlefinger is one of my favourite characters, if not the favourite, and try make sense of his actions is one of the major reasons why I got addicted to ASOIAF.

Just one critique: try to support your arguments with quotes from the text, so that people can check the sources by themselves and decide whether they agree with your interpretation or not.

[forod]

well thought out theory, excellently compiled and fits what we know about LF. Only problem is that in the two remaining books, with everything going on and so much to tie up, I doubt we will see all this, if it is correct, come to fruition. 

[Maester of Valyria]

This is an excellent and superbly well thought out argument: well done! Just a quick point: you say that

12 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

In Eddard IV AGoT, Ned Stark learns that the Crown is over six million golden dragons in debt, and half of that debt belongs to the Iron Bank. The other sizable portions of the debt are owed to the Faith of Seven and the Lannisters.

However, the actual quote is this:

"The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I've had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger."

It's unlikely that Littlefinger would lie about the sizes of the constituent parts of the debt when anyone could examine the Crown's (or the Lannister's or Tyrell's) books for themselves. A good estimate seems to be three million to the Lannisters, one million to the Iron Bank, one million to the Faith (given that this is what Cersei gets forgiven) and half a million apiece for the Tyrells and Tyroshi.

Of course this debt will have increased since then, but that's largely another matter.

 

Regardless, this does not detract from your main argument. Well done, and welcome to the forums!

[Knight and Dayne]

Glad you came out of the shadows to post this! Really well-argued, and I agree with most of the major conclusions. I think Sansa has a different role in the plan though - as heir-apparent to the North, and possibly the future Lady of the Vale, she's an extremely valuable ally for Petyr. Her assent would give much-needed legitimacy to Littlefinger's newly-established Republic of Westeros.

The famous "Gods alone know what Littlefinger's game is" quote is pretty telling as well. Republican government isn't even thinkable to people bound up in feudalism. Varys is a smart guy, but he can't even contemplate a change to the system of government.

One small quibble that doesn't detract from your argument - it was my understanding that the gaolers were Varys' creatures, not Littlefinger's. One more layer of corruption to add to the size of the Crown's debt. 

[John Doe]

Westeros isn't ready for a republic. Not enough of a bourgeoisie and not nearly enough urbanization. 

[NutBurz]

15 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

A potential problem with the theory is the Iron Bank’s decision to lend money to King Stannis’ cause. Why would they do this if they were planning on financing the Republican Revolution? A possible explanation is that it allows the Iron Bank to justify the presence of mercenary companies in Westeros prior to Braavosi intervention. By this I mean that the sellswords in Stannis’ pay are ultimately loyal to whoever pays them, and Stannis is essentially a middleman for money flowing from the Iron Bank to the sellswords.

Rotschilds. (:

The Iron Bank has enough money to play both sides and still profit, even if for no other reason apart from the fact that a devastated Westeros would require even further loans. They would prefer a mercantilist republic, but they wouldn´t stay out of the pocket of the guy with the strongest claim to the throne.

 

 

btw - I believe 100% this is ultimately LF´s plan

[The Snow Bear]

14 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

After several years of lurking on the forums, I believe I have something to contribute...

The Republic of Littlefinger Theory

Hey great line of thought! I love it how many people come up with new well-outlined ideas here!

Even though I sorely have to say that, I disagree with most of it.
In my opinion, your whole op hinges on two points of perception and a minor matter.

 

1. The first point would be your perception of Littlefingers motives. I do believe you underestimate LFs hunger for power, misinterpret his actions as revenge respectively his lust for revenge and I don’t share your approach on the urge to democracy in a medieval society.

1.1. LFs hunger for power

You argue that LFs move to leave Kingslanding shows that he is not power-hungry. I say the opposite is true.

Littlefinger had reached the top of the ladder in Kingslanding. What was in for him better than he had? The hand with loads of luck? Mayhaps. But only if Tywin disappeared. On the other hand, he always was just a snap of the fingers away from becoming a minor lord of one of the fingers again if any king or hand (or queen regent) decided to dismiss him.

Becoming the lord of Harrenhall and subsequently marrying Lysa made LF a de facto-grand lord of Westeros. Yes this step was risky an still could mean his downfall but it stays a clear step up to more power.

 

1.2. Revenge?

I’d call a lot of your “revenges” rather farfetched.

I don’t see any proof for your idea that LF implied Tyrion as Joffs killer out of vengeance. Isn’t it much more likely that this was more a tactical move to put a rival player out of “the game” and create more chaos? Something that setting up Dontos never would have done (especially when Dontos could also have ratted out LF).

I give you that killing Lysa seems to have been an emotional move. But was it more about vengeance or more about dealing with a more and more uncontrollable thus dangerous element in his schemes? I think Lysa was a clear danger was by then a clear danger to Sansalayne, who LF needs for his plans and/or is kinda in love with. Lysa on the other hand had already fulfilled much of her usefulness. Yes it would have been a safer game to keep her a little longer but risking Sansalayne would be more dangerous to his schemes.

I neither see vengeance in the whole Marrilion thing. Wasn’t it more the best way to close the story? Wasn’t Marillion more the useful idiot and likely scapegoat?

Therefore, your analysis of LFs actions towards Ned seem to hit the point in my opinion. If revenge would have been LFs prime motive it would have been easy to get his revenge on Ned without losing much of his power play but LF rather tries to work together with Ned for he sees a way to more power.

Here power clearly is more important to LF than revenge.

 

1.3. Democracy

The idea that LF tries to install some kind of democracy in Westeros doesn’t fit. As is stated LF already became a high lord with getting Harrenhall and he got even higher with marrying Lysa furthermore LF doesn’t want Sansa to become Alayne permanently. By all we know he wants to use her status as daughter of Winterfell. So why should he place himself and Sansa in this high positions if he wants to throw the system down? Furthermore I just see the system much too ingrained too change into a kind of democracy and neither can I find any indices for this in the books

2. Secondly, I think you overestimate and misinterpret Bravos.

Yes, they are quite powerful and have an impressive navy, but they stay a single city. How should they overthrow and control the whole of Westeros? Especially when they could not have any allies, because they’d want to overthrow all of them.

Also this doesn’t seem to be Bravos m.o.. Yes, if you don’t pay them they’ll support your enemies but they don’t impose their system on you. Even with the no slavery thing it seems to be more a self-protective step then a missionary to me. If slavery is forbidden in Pentos no one will come and steal people in to slavery from Bravos.

3. So, Conclusively I interpret Littlefinger more as a cold player of the GoT who uses the existing system to his best means than a revolutionary and don’t think Bravos could or would impose some kind of republic on Westeros

 

To the minor matter: I’d be careful with mentioning of Preston Jacobs in this forum. The hate is strong here.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Nah.

Impressive work, don't get me wrong, even if you do mention Preston Jacobs a few times. But the concept of Braavos conquering Westeros and installing a republic there simply doesn't fit. Braavos never conquered anything in its entire history. Not a single city. And their first project of this sort would be an entire continent? They never had any designs on Lorath or Pentos, but will invade Westeros? I don't buy it.

Second, Aegon the Conqueror with his three dragons brought the Seven Kingdoms to its knees, yet even he himself took great care not to upset the political status quo. He didn't try to Valyrian up Westeros. the opposite: he left the feudal structure intact, he left the land's religions intact. So if Aegon the Conqueror himself chose not to impose his traditions and values on the land he had conquered, would the Braavosi be more ambitious and fanatical?

So I don't believe that that could be done to Westeros, and I don't believe Braavos would want to do that, or have the necessary resources to pull it off.

[Ebrose]

1 hour ago, Knight and Dayne said:

The famous "Gods alone know what Littlefinger's game is" quote is pretty telling as well. Republican government isn't even thinkable to people bound up in feudalism. Varys is a smart guy, but he can't even contemplate a change to the system of government.

He was born and raised in the free cities, so I don't see why would it be so inconceivable for him, tbh

[House Cambodia]

It's certainly a well-thought out and intriguing theory. I doubt that it's down to LF, but we're at a point where Tommen is about to die and there will be no credible claimant in Westeros to the throne (you've accounted for Stannis). So the time would be ripe in the power vacuum to instigate a Republic.

However, there is a huge elephant in the room that you haven't accounted for - scaly fire-breathing elephant.

Is he aware of Daenerys? He's supposed to know everything - news must have reached Braavos and from there to LF. For all her enlightened anti-slavery principles, she has no time for Republicanism given her self-aware divinely ordained mission to rule Westeros from the Iron Throne. So how he does factor Dany into his grand scheme?

[Scorpion92]

Yeah, a very good theory, and probably has merit. It actually ties up with my 

After watching this season of the show and reading closely Davos' POV chapters, I came to one conclusion - after the situation in the North stabilizes by the end of Winds of Winter, and I mean by that, Jon will take back Winterfell with Free Folk and become King in the North (but he will be CHOSEN to be King by wildlings, not because he has Stark blood), I think Jon will appoint Davos as his Hand of the King and Master of Ships (two seats in small council) and award him White Harbor as his new seat (Manderlys are going down along with other northern noble houses).

Since Jon already was in contact with Tycho Nestoris, there is a connection between Iron Bank and future King in the North. I think Jon will send Davos as his representative to Braavos to talk to Iron Bank. They are an independent kingdom once again, but they know whoever sits on the Iron Throne (Cersei, Aegon, Dany) will not tolerate the North as independent entity, and the answer will come. Therefore, Jon will need Davos to arrange terms with Braavosi regarding funding and naval support.

And I think Davos will be our POV in Braavos when Long Night comes - the city will be destroyed and drowned by the catastrophe (tsunamis caused by moon meteor, big thank to LmL and his theories). 

Now, if your theory of Littlefinger planning an invasion of Braavosi for eventual overthrow of feudalism in Westeros is true, then I believe Davos will persuade Braavosi survivors to find new home not in the Vale, but in the North - White Harbor. Davos will see a MASSIVE opportunity to integrate Braavosi superior knowledge and technology regarding everything into the North and benefit his new king, who was ELECTED as such thanks to influx of more liberal minded wildlings and their "fuck kneeling" ways.

I think it all ties up nicely.

[Fox of House McCloud]

Really intriguing theory, brilliantly laid out.

One note I did have, though, is LF says he had Joffrey killed because he was wild and unpredictable (compared to Tommen, who is tame and malleable) rather than to create chaos.

[Pies are coming]

An impressive OP, and I tend to agree except with one thing:

Braavosi military intervention.

Yes, Braavos has a huge navy. They don't seem to have a standing army, and the terrain immediately surrounding the city seems awful to develop a large cavalry force. So, let's suppose the remaining Westerosi navies weaken themselves enough for Braavos to seize naval superiority in the Narrow Sea. Suppose they land the medieval equivalent of marines. How do they fare, out in the open, against Westerosi heavy cavalry?

So, overthrowing the system? Yes. Braavosi support? Probably. Foreign invasion from Braavos? I doubt it.

[PCK]

I think LF's real goal is to gain the North. A logical ending for the series though would be the beginnings of a republican government with the Iron Throne having less and less power. LF would be as good of a choice as anyone for Prime Minister of such a system. Unfortunately, I think Westeros is still about 300 years away from such a form of government. There also really isn't much of a middle class to speak of in Westeros. 

[black_hart]

This theory does not convince.

A - Sansa

She is his preferred plaything, LF is directly involved in almost all problems in her life, but he does not lift a finger to protect her during her ordeals ("cares about her"), I concede the Lothor Brune vs. Marillion situation. Usually even her survival is more due to luck / fate / GRRM, Sandor and Tyrion than LF, who put her into the dangerous situations in the first place.

1) He lures her father to Kings Landing by having his mentor murdered.

2) He ensures Ned stays in Kings Landing until it is too late.

3) He serves Ned to Cersei.

4) Joffrey's decision to have Ned executed is a surprise to even Cersei, Varys. Did he have the idea all on his own?

5) He obstructs Willas-Sansa, which results in Tyrion-Sansa marriage.

6) He carefully frames both Tyrion and Sansa in the assassination of Joffrey.

7) Jeyne Poole aka Sansa's best friend was dressed up and "educated" for her role as fake Arya by LF. With LF arranging the preparation of Jeyne Poole, it seems likely the whole "fake Arya" marriage was his idea to begin with. (His involvement in Lannister - Bolton diplomacy at least raises the question whether he was involved even earlier.)

8) In the Eyrie he turns Lysa against Sansa (this is very deliberate) and ultimately makes Sansa complicit in the murder of her aunt.

B - Iron Bank

There is no textual evidence in the books that the Iron Bank aims for direct rule. Regime change for compliance, not Empire.

C - Braavos

Maybe I missed something in the book, but there is little evidence of deep connections between LF and the rulers of Braavos. LF had to deal with the Iron Bank, but being a 4th generation migrant does not make a particularly strong association to the current rulers of the place your ancestor left. ("Obama presidency was a Kenyan plot to get back at the British for colonial atrocities." would be less tinfoil.)

D - Republic

No evidence whatsoever. On the contrary, LF is Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, Lord of Harrenhal and currently Lord Protector of the Vale. He already is one of the greatest lords of Westeros in name and in the process of building the power base to act the part. Your "republican revolutionary" is an ambitious social climber and already very close to the top of the ladder.

[thought_criminal22]

On 5/23/2016 at 6:09 AM, Ebrose said:

Just one critique: try to support your arguments with quotes from the text, so that people can check the sources by themselves and decide whether they agree with your interpretation or not.

I will do so from now on, thank you.

On 5/23/2016 at 7:39 AM, forod said:

well thought out theory, excellently compiled and fits what we know about LF. Only problem is that in the two remaining books, with everything going on and so much to tie up, I doubt we will see all this, if it is correct, come to fruition. 

Thank you, friend. Again, my goal is not to predict what will happen. I am only attempting to discern Petyr's overall plan.

I do believe we are seeing some rising action from the Iron Bank, however. 1) Noho Dimittis is sent to King's landing to demand continuation of payments after Queen Regent Cersei decides to defer the debt (AFfC Cersei V.)

2) The Iron Bank begins calling in debt throughout the realm:

Quote

A Group of Merchants appeared before her to beg the throne to intercede for them with the Iron Bank of Braavos. The Braavosi were demanding repayment of their outstanding debts, it seemed, and refusing all new loans. (AFfC Cersei VIII.) 

3) Tycho Nestorius arrives at Eastwatch by the Sea and makes out a loan to the Night's Watch. This is notable because in the previous action, we hear they are refusing all new loans in Westeros (ADwD Jon IX.)

4) Tycho Nestorius arrives in King Stannis' war camp and grants him a loan:

Quote

"You hope to have your gold, you mean. Save your pleasantries. It is coin I need from Braavos, not empty courtesy."  (TWoW Theon Sample Chapter)

In my experience with literary subjects, rising action foretells a coming climactic moment wherein multiple plot strings reach some form of conclusion.

It is my belief that this rising action provides 1) A legal argument for the Iron Bank's claim on the Iron Throne. 2) Economic chaos that will allow Lord Baelish to recruit the cooperation of indebted lords (Also, it could be the Iron Bank making an effort to recoup debt before the war or winter.) 3) Unknown, Nestorius didn't seem to expect this conversation, but the Night's Watch is a venerable organization whose debts will never die. 4) Provides a legitimate reason for Braavosi-paid sellswords to arrive in the North (I doubt the Iron Bank believes Stannis can actually win the war, by the by.) 

On 5/23/2016 at 7:43 AM, Maester of Valyria said:

However, the actual quote is this:

"The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I've had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger."

Thank you for pointing this out. This was an inexcusable lapse on my part, and I apologize to the community for it. I will try to be more careful in the future (Especially when I am not writing a paper that requires more than fifty citations, most of them taken from memory.)

On 5/23/2016 at 10:58 AM, Knight and Dayne said:

One small quibble that doesn't detract from your argument - it was my understanding that the gaolers were Varys' creatures, not Littlefinger's. One more layer of corruption to add to the size of the Crown's debt. 

Thank you for your words, friend.

It was my understanding that Rugen actually was Varys, and the gaolers would have been hired by the Master of Coin. If the gaolers were Varys' men, why did he drug them to sleep and leave them to hang for his part in freeing Tyrion?

On 5/23/2016 at 11:11 AM, John Doe said:

Westeros isn't ready for a republic. Not enough of a bourgeoisie and not nearly enough urbanization. 

Begging your pardon, but Westeros doesn't need to be ready for a republic if republicanism is imposed upon it. This calls to mind the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where Nato and U.S. led forces attempted to install western-style democratic systems on foreign cultures. Or, perhaps more appropriately, African and South Pacific colonialism in the 19th and 20th centuries, where cultures were forced into a foreign colonial system for the exploitation of their natural resources. 

On 5/23/2016 at 11:21 AM, NutBurz said:

btw - I believe 100% this is ultimately LF´s plan

How did that sweet, cold, republican Kool-Aid taste?

On 5/23/2016 at 11:25 AM, The Snow Bear said:

1. The first point would be your perception of Littlefingers motives. I do believe you underestimate LFs hunger for power, misinterpret his actions as revenge respectively his lust for revenge and I don’t share your approach on the urge to democracy in a medieval society.

1.1. LFs hunger for power

You argue that LFs move to leave Kingslanding shows that he is not power-hungry. I say the opposite is true.

...

1.2. Revenge?

...

I don’t see any proof for your idea that LF implied Tyrion as Joffs killer out of vengeance. Isn’t it much more likely that this was more a tactical move to put a rival player out of “the game” and create more chaos? Something that setting up Dontos never would have done (especially when Dontos could also have ratted out LF).

...

I give you that killing Lysa seems to have been an emotional move. But was it more about vengeance or more about dealing with a more and more uncontrollable thus dangerous element in his schemes? 

...

I neither see vengeance in the whole Marrilion thing. Wasn’t it more the best way to close the story? Wasn’t Marillion more the useful idiot and likely scapegoat?

Therefore, your analysis of LFs actions towards Ned seem to hit the point in my opinion. If revenge would have been LFs prime motive it would have been easy to get his revenge on Ned without losing much of his power play but LF rather tries to work together with Ned for he sees a way to more power.

1.3. Democracy

The idea that LF tries to install some kind of democracy in Westeros doesn’t fit. As is stated LF already became a high lord with getting Harrenhall and he got even higher with marrying Lysa furthermore LF doesn’t want Sansa to become Alayne permanently. By all we know he wants to use her status as daughter of Winterfell. So why should he place himself and Sansa in this high positions if he wants to throw the system down? Furthermore I just see the system much too ingrained too change into a kind of democracy and neither can I find any indices for this in the books

2. Secondly, I think you overestimate and misinterpret Bravos.

Yes, they are quite powerful and have an impressive navy, but they stay a single city. How should they overthrow and control the whole of Westeros? Especially when they could not have any allies, because they’d want to overthrow all of them.

Also this doesn’t seem to be Bravos m.o.. Yes, if you don’t pay them they’ll support your enemies but they don’t impose their system on you. Even with the no slavery thing it seems to be more a self-protective step then a missionary to me. If slavery is forbidden in Pentos no one will come and steal people in to slavery from Bravos.

...

To the minor matter: I’d be careful with mentioning of Preston Jacobs in this forum. The hate is strong here.

 

Thank you for your critiques, friend. 

Rebuttal 1.1) On the point of locality, we must agree to disagree. I still believe Petyr surrenders more influence than he gains by leaving King's Landing. I interpret his departure from King's Landing as a way to arrange his alibi for the Sansa abduction and Joffrey's regicide, and then remains out of King's Landing in order to be with Alayne Stone (To my thinking, training her to be the daughter he and Catelyn never had.)

Rebuttal 1.2) If you believe that hiring a troupe of Braavosi dwarves, whose "expense was exceeded only by the bother(Sansa V ASoS,)" instigating the King to castigate Tyrion with their entertainment, smuggling poison to a 13-year old girl for her to wear at a wedding feast, relying on the slight-of-hand skills of a sexagenarian, all while kidnapping a hostage of the state with a drunken and disgraced knight, in order to stage the violent death of the King in front of a crowd of thousands seems like the safest, easiest, and most cost-effective way to rid yourself of a rival player of the game...

... Then we will have to agree to disagree. For me, the plan is too risky, too costly, and too showy for it to be as naked as an assassination and a framing. If Petyr has access to poisons, then poison the wine Lord Tyrion is known to drink in copious amounts. If he wants to kidnap Sansa, then do it in the quiet of night, don't make a 3-act show of it. If he wants to kill the King, there are much simpler ways to do it (the King plays with crossbows, rig one for an 'accident.')

But this plan makes sense if you want a brat-tyrant like Joffrey to suffer a horrifying public death (sweetsleep would have been less showy, just as effective, easier to acquire,) all while simultaneously humiliating and casting down a rival like Tyrion.

As for Lysa, if he didn't want to take vengeance against her, why did he feel the need to whisper, "I've only loved one woman, I promise you... Only Cat(Sansa VII ASoS,)" before throwing her through the Moon Door? Why break her heart and force her to think on those words for the long minutes as she fell to her death unless he hated her? Something I didn't fully realize until mulling over your critiques is that Lysa sexually abused Petyr at Riverrun:

Quote

"... And afterward (Petyr) drank until he passed out at the table. Uncle Brynden carried him up to bed... That was the night I stole up to his bed to give him comfort. I bled, but it was the sweetest hurt. He told me he loved me then, but he called me Cat, just before he fell back to sleep." (Sansa VII ASoS)

If this were to happen with the genders reversed, wouldn't we name it rape? And Petyr is clearly wounded by the incident, such that he makes multiple claims that he took Catelyn's maidenhood. I interpret this as a coping mechanism, he has convinced himself he made love with Cat, rather than being taken advantage of while in a drunken stupor (this is also likely his first sexual encounter as well, which could help explain his refusal to partake in whoring despite owning a brothel.) As a result of this evidence, I believe I am justified in saying the murder of Lysa Tully was an act of vengeance. 

As for Marillion, it is my understanding that the Skycells alone are normally enough to encourage prisoner cooperation. Mord doesn't torture and mutilate Tyrion when he is in the skycells. So why does Petyr pluck out Marillion's eyes and cut off his fingers? I believe it is because he looked upon Sansa in lust with those eyes and touched her with those fingers. As a man who has experienced sexual abuse himself, how could he not have reacted with rage at such an incident?

Rebuttal 1.3) Democracy is a strong word here. Study the Merchant Republic of Venice, specifically how the Doges of Venice operated, to get an idea of what I mean when I use the word 'republic.' Why would Petyr throw down the system that gave him Harrenhal and the Vale? Because he could always have more. As Supreme Doge of the Grand Republic of Westeros (Or Hand of the Doge, as it may be,) he would wield power from the Wall to the Arbor.

Rebuttal 2) With respect, I don't think we have enough evidence to say either way whether or not this is Braavos' M.O. In my analysis of Braavos' part in the scheme, I pointed out that Braavos has imposed a slavery Ban on Pentos, but we don't know the full extent of this treaty. We simply don't have enough history of Braavos to say either way whether or not they are strictly non-interventionist or willing to go to war. It may depend on the Sealord, and guess what, the current Sealord may be nearing the end of his term:

Quote

"The Sealord is still sick."

"This is no new thing. The Sealord was sick yesterday, and will still be sick upon the morrow."

"Or dead." (The Blind Girl ADwD)

 And just as the Kingsmoot heralded a new way of things in the Iron Islands, a newly elected Sealord may decide to intervene in the Westerosi Civil War, seeing it as a chance to free the serfs of the Sunset Kingdoms from their lives of misery (While lining the pockets of the Iron Bank and the merchant princes with all of the new markets such a move would open up.) And perhaps Petyr already has people working on influencing the coming election towards such an outcome, hence the correspondence with Braavos. Could news of the impending election be a part of Oswell Kettleblack's 'interesting news' from Alayne II AFfC?

 

 

I do intend on offering rebuttals to the other critiques here, but my time has run short and I must be off. I only have internet once in about every three days, so I will talk more then. But thank you for your critiques, my friends. I look forward to more discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Maester of Valyria]

18 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

Thank you for pointing this out. This was an inexcusable lapse on my part, and I apologize to the community for it. I will try to be more careful in the future (Especially when I am not writing a paper that requires more than fifty citations, most of them taken from memory.)

Oh we've all made worse lapses in the past! Don't worry about it: it happens! Nobody in the community will judge you for one minor error!

18 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

It was my understanding that Rugen actually was Varys, and the gaolers would have been hired by the Master of Coin. If the gaolers were Varys' men, why did he drug them to sleep and leave them to hang for his part in freeing Tyrion?

Possibly because the men had outlived their usefulness to Varys, and also wasn't Cersei's command to kill the gaolers a surprise to her guards? Varys probably thought they'd be taken for questioning and later released when it became clear they didn't know anything (or they'd be executed instead, but I can't see Varys losing sleep over that).

18 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

Begging your pardon, but Westeros doesn't need to be ready for a republic if republicanism is imposed upon it. This calls to mind the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where Nato and U.S. led forces attempted to install western-style democratic systems on foreign cultures. Or, perhaps more appropriately, African and South Pacific colonialism in the 19th and 20th centuries, where cultures were forced into a foreign colonial system for the exploitation of their natural resources. 

Mmmh, because Iraq and Afghanistan turned out so well...and Africa is full of well-developed and harmonious countries...

I can't envision Braavos being stupid enough to force a system of government onto a country not yet ready for that system. I mean, the Sealord isn't Bush or Blair! Apart from any ethical ramifications, Braavos will not have the military or economic power to subdue a whole continent, and doing a quick asset-strip and then hightailing it back across the Narrow Sea would just leave a torn up economic mess only a short sail away from the stability-loving Iron Bank and merchant princes...

18 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

As for Marillion, it is my understanding that the Skycells alone are normally enough to encourage prisoner cooperation. Mord doesn't torture and mutilate Tyrion when he is in the skycells. So why does Petyr pluck out Marillion's eyes and cut off his fingers? I believe it is because he looked upon Sansa in lust with those eyes and touched her with those fingers. As a man who has experienced sexual abuse himself, how could he not have reacted with rage at such an incident?

I always assumed Petyr tortured Marillion to convince him to go along with the official version of events, although as is so often the case you can make arguments for different views.

I'm also not so sure that Petyr would view Lysa bedding him as abuse, if he truly believed that she was Catelyn (once again, different arguments etc).

[Seams]

Very interesting and fresh idea! It will take me some time to think of Baelish as anything but a selfish schemer. In fact, I'm not sure I'll ever see him as someone other than the snake in the Garden of Eden, trying to promote chaos and ruin paradise for others.

But a big Baelish-led Braavos invasion conspiracy really could be a part of several different grand finale scenarios, with or without republican government as an outcome. I like that a lot. If you're right about that, I think you'll want to consider this evidence about Penny and Groat/Oppo, the little people who performed the comical joust at Joffrey's wedding:

"'It was Father's idea to do the tilts. He even trained the first pig, but by then he was too sick to ride her, so Oppo took his place. I always rode the dog. We performed for the Sealord of Braavos, and he laughed so hard that afterward he gave each of us a . . . a grand gift.'

'Is that where my sister found you? In Braavos?'

'Your sister?' The girl looked lost. 'Queen Cersei.' Penny shook her head. 'She never... It was a man who came to us in Pentos. Osmund. No, Oswald. Something like that. Oppo met with him, not me. Oppo made all of our arrangements. My brother always knew what to do, where we should go next.'"

I think the grand gifts Penny and Groat received in Braavos are dragon eggs. I had been thinking that she has them somewhere in Essos and will share them with Tyrion when the time is right. But what if word leaked out - some servant or family member or hanger-on in the House of the Sealord saw him drunkenly give away these two priceless eggs to a pair of performing dwarfs. Word reached Baelish, who knew that dragon power would be the best weapon he could use to advance his invasion force.

What if, when Oppo made a deal with one of the Kettleblacks to travel to King's Landing to perform at Joffrey's wedding, he also made a deal to sell his dragon eggs to the same guy, who is in the employ of Petyr Baelish? Or maybe Oppo / Groat refused to sell, and Baelish arranged to have him beheaded and just made it appear that it was part of Cersei's sweep for Tyrion. Baelish obtaining the eggs could make some sense with the timeline needed for a dragon to grow. We know he has a wide open, deserted land in the Fingers, with plenty of sheep to feed the dragons and just a few loyal servants who can raise them on his behalf. Of course, he would have to figure out how to hatch them. The earliest the eggs could have been hatched is about the time of Joffrey's ill-fated wedding. Maybe Baelish dropped off the eggs at The Fingers when he stopped there with Sansa on his way to the Eyrie.

Maybe the hatching is where Sansa comes in. I've been hoping Sansa would somehow unleash an ice dragon, but maybe she has the power to hatch or, at least, to ride the Braavosi dragons. That could be the real reason Littlefinger wants her nearby - he needs a cooperative warg who can skin change into a dragon and ride it.

Just a thought.

P.S. It just occurred to me - How appropriate for the Master of Coins to manipulate Penny and Groat.

[Brianstorm]

Amazing theory! I think if it's true that it would have something to do with the Faceless Men however, since they ARE Braavos and the Iron Bank. etc/