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The Republic of Littlefinger Theory


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15 minutes ago, Brianstorm said:

Amazing theory! I think if it's true that it would have something to do with the Faceless Men however, since they ARE Braavos and the Iron Bank. etc/

Littlefinger certainly has opinions on the issue:

Quote

“On Braavos there is a society called the Faceless Men,” Grand Maester Pycelle offered.
“Do you have any idea how costly they are?” Littlefinger complained. “You could hire an army of common sellswords for half the price, and that’s for a merchant. I don’t dare think what they might ask for a princess.”

AGoT Eddard VIII

Sounds like Littlefinger has used, or at least has experience with the FM, but I don't think he'd be willing to pay the price for them to be a part of a potential republican plot. I think it would be more accurate to say that the FM are an institution of Braavos alongside the IB. Their story of the founding of Braavos puts them at the center of the action; I bet if a representative of the IB told the story of the founding of Braavos they'd claim to be the original bond between disparate groups of escaped slaves, and the force that makes Braavos so powerful.

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52 minutes ago, Knight and Dayne said:

Littlefinger certainly has opinions on the issue:

Sounds like Littlefinger has used, or at least has experience with the FM, but I don't think he'd be willing to pay the price for them to be a part of a potential republican plot. I think it would be more accurate to say that the FM are an institution of Braavos alongside the IB. Their story of the founding of Braavos puts them at the center of the action; I bet if a representative of the IB told the story of the founding of Braavos they'd claim to be the original bond between disparate groups of escaped slaves, and the force that makes Braavos so powerful.

Interesting, did the IB create the FM or vice versa? The magic seems real, but who knows they may have bought that knowledge.

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35 minutes ago, Brianstorm said:

Interesting, did the IB create the FM or vice versa? The magic seems real, but who knows they may have bought that knowledge.

Per the World Book:

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...[The Iron Bank,] whose roots stretch back to the beginnings of the city, when a few of the fugitives took to hiding such valuables as they had in an abandoned iron mine to keep them safe from thieves and pirates...Rather than let their treasure sit idle in the earth, the wealthier Braavosi began to make loans...

The IB seems to have grown organically from wise management of the collective wealth of the former slaves that founded the place. Besides, death cults aren't known for their sound finances :P

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On 5/23/2016 at 0:11 PM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

...[T]he concept of Braavos conquering Westeros and installing a republic there simply doesn't fit. Braavos never conquered anything in its entire history.  

...

Second, Aegon the Conqueror with his three dragons brought the Seven Kingdoms to its knees, yet even he himself took great care not to upset the political status quo... f Aegon the Conqueror himself chose not to impose his traditions and values on the land he had conquered, would the Braavosi be more ambitious and fanatical?

Thank you for your critiques, friend.

On the issue of Braavosi history, I concede your point. However, this does not necessarily rule out a shift in policy, especially on the eve of a new Sealord's election. The United States largely stayed out of foreign conflicts until World War 1 (1789-1918, almost a century and a half,) but the desire to control global resources drove them into the international scene where they remain today. A similar motive could drive Braavos to shift their policies as well. Westeros is, compared to Essos, undeveloped and untapped as far as resources go. Braavosi tradesmen could make good use of raw Westerosi materials, and the Iron Bank would love to finance the development of the continent. I conclude that we do not know enough about Braavosi history to say, definitively, whether or not they would remain non-interventionist in the face of the raw profit potential Petyr presents to them.

As to Aegon's conquest, I do not concede the point. Aegon massively changed the Westerosi status quo where it suited him and kept the status quo only when it didn't conflict with his goals. The feudal system allowed him to control most of the continent with a handful of direct vassals. As to the Faith of the Seven, the Valyrian religious leadership fell into the Smoking Sea along with the rest of Valyria. What reason did he have to keep his gods? His gods had abandoned him, perhaps the Seven would hear his prayers.

Empire was an entirely new concept for Westeros. The kings and queens of the Seven Kingdoms (well, Six until Dorne married the Dragon) were no longer rulers in their own right, but vassals to a foreign king. Stormlanders, Westermen, and  Reachmen had to make peace with one-another. Ironmen had to curtail their reaving and give up their claims to the Riverlands. The upjumped steward Tyrells replaced the old Greenhand kings, an ancient house that traced its lineage back to the Age of Heroes. Likewise, the Durrandons were replaced with a bastard Valyrian line that that took the old house's daughter, words, and sigil. The Northmen had to give up their independence to Southron Lords, an act humiliating enough that the Stark in Winterfell at the time is still called "The King Who Kneeled" today. The threat of dragonfire forced together a group of disparate cultures that had little to do with one another. That is a huge shakeup to the status quo.

On 5/23/2016 at 0:44 PM, Ebrose said:

He was born and raised in the free cities, so I don't see why would it be so inconceivable for him, tbh

This is a good point. If anyone in Westeros could foretell a Republican plot, it would be Varys. However, I would say that context is king (This is the first lesson of all my ancient Greek, Hebrew, and Latin translation classes, and surprisingly crosses over well into literature and other mediums.) And Varys will think of Petyr as a Westerosi noble and view him in that context. He might not think of Petyr operating outside the Westerosi feudal system. There may be a "I should have seen it all along," moment for Varys.

On 5/23/2016 at 1:06 PM, Scorpion92 said:

Davos will see a MASSIVE opportunity to integrate Braavosi superior knowledge and technology regarding everything into the North and benefit his new king, who was ELECTED as such thanks to influx of more liberal minded wildlings and their "fuck kneeling" ways.

Gods, I hadn't thought to considered how the Free Folk would respond to a Republican Revolution. They wouldn't have to kneel, only raise their hands for one or the other. Brilliantly thought, friend.

On 5/23/2016 at 0:46 PM, House Cambodia said:

However, there is a huge elephant in the room that you haven't accounted for - scaly fire-breathing elephant.

Thank you for your words, friend.

It is my understanding that few, if any, people in Westeros take the Daenerys threat seriously, besides Euron who sees it as more of an opportunity. And if they are monitoring Dany's progress, they would see her sitting upon a throne in Slaver's Bay, apparently content to govern that realm for the moment, either that or besieged by a Yunkish and Ghiscari host, hardly an imminent threat. I don't see any reason for Petyr to see Dany as a threat at the moment. Euron's Dragon-Kraken Gambit may change that, but that's far in the future and there's no way for Petyr to foresee or forestall it.

On 5/23/2016 at 1:16 PM, Fox of House McCloud said:

One note I did have, though, is LF says he had Joffrey killed because he was wild and unpredictable (compared to Tommen, who is tame and malleable) rather than to create chaos.

Thank you for your compliments, friend. 

Petyr claims:

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"Why should I wish him dead?" Littlefinger shrugged. "I had no motive... Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you." (SANSA V ASoS) [Emphasis added]

And if you believe that Lord Baelish risked everything to commit regicide for "no motive," then we will have to agree to disagree. Petyr is lying to Sansa. The 'foes' in this statement include Sansa, as I pointed out in the original argument. He is keeping her confused, doing things that seem to have no purpose, that seem to work against him, until she takes on the role of Alayne Stone and he admits:

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"... Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now... it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos." (Alayne II AFfC) [Emphasis original]

This fits with my argument that Petyr entrusts Sansa with more of his plans and thoughts the more she becomes Alayne Stone. 

On 5/24/2016 at 8:33 PM, Pies are coming said:

[The Braavosi] don't seem to have a standing army, and the terrain immediately surrounding the city seems awful to develop a large cavalry force... [L]et's suppose the remaining Westerosi navies weaken themselves enough for Braavos to seize naval superiority in the Narrow Sea. Suppose they land the medieval equivalent of marines. How do they fare, out in the open, against Westerosi heavy cavalry?

I believe the majority of the Republican ground forces will be composed of native Westerosi allies. Vale lords and Randyl Tarly with debt held by Lord Baelish, convinced there is no suitable claimant to the throne and that they should therefore fight for their own self-interests (forgiveness of debt so they may keep their lands once the new order is established.) Landed knights, hedge knights, men-at-arms, and minor houses who would benefit from a system that allows for more social mobility. Legions of smallfolk may also join the Republicans in order to strike back at the highborns who've burned their villages and desecrated their septs, as well as the promise of representative government (I can see someone arguing, 'A chance t' own da lands we work, and ma' our own choices, and screw dem lords dat nae like it!') As well as the city watches of the Crownlands (bought and paid for during Petyr's time as Master of Coin.) As stated in my original argument, Northmen, Dornishmen, and Crackclaw Folk may also find republicanism attractive. 

The Free Cities are loosely based on Italian city states of the pre-Renaissance era. As noted in Niccolo Machiavelli's The Prince, the usual practice of these city-states is to hire mercenary companies for waging war. We know there are a number of these companies based out of Braavos because Stannis sends Ser Justin Massey there to find twenty-thousand men (TWoW Theon Sample Chapter.) So I do believe the strength of arms is there in Braavos for this sort of invasion. (Also, I am formulating an argument based on the history of Niccolo Machiavelli to support this theory, so stay tuned.)

On 5/24/2016 at 9:29 PM, PCK said:

I think LF's real goal is to gain the North. A logical ending for the series though would be the beginnings of a republican government with the Iron Throne having less and less power. LF would be as good of a choice as anyone for Prime Minister of such a system. Unfortunately, I think Westeros is still about 300 years away from such a form of government. There also really isn't much of a middle class to speak of in Westeros. 

I use the term 'middle class' to describe minor nobility and merchants in this context. So the Westerlings, for example, would be an upper middle-class house. And there are plenty of these minor houses as well as landed knights, hedge knights, men-at-arms, and merchants who would welcome the upward mobility republicanism would afford them.

 

On 5/24/2016 at 4:59 PM, black_hart said:

This theory does not convince.

A - Sansa

She is his preferred plaything, LF is directly involved in almost all problems in her life, but he does not lift a finger to protect her during her ordeals ("cares about her") ... Usually even her survival is more due to luck / fate / GRRM, Sandor and Tyrion than LF, who put her into the dangerous situations in the first place.

1) He lures her father to Kings Landing by having his mentor murdered.

2) He ensures Ned stays in Kings Landing until it is too late.

3) He serves Ned to Cersei.

4) Joffrey's decision to have Ned executed is a surprise to even Cersei, Varys. Did he have the idea all on his own?

5) He obstructs Willas-Sansa, which results in Tyrion-Sansa marriage.

6) He carefully frames both Tyrion and Sansa in the assassination of Joffrey.

7) Jeyne Poole aka Sansa's best friend was dressed up and "educated" for her role as fake Arya by LF. With LF arranging the preparation of Jeyne Poole, it seems likely the whole "fake Arya" marriage was his idea to begin with. (His involvement in Lannister - Bolton diplomacy at least raises the question whether he was involved even earlier.)

8) In the Eyrie he turns Lysa against Sansa (this is very deliberate) and ultimately makes Sansa complicit in the murder of her aunt.

B - Iron Bank

There is no textual evidence in the books that the Iron Bank aims for direct rule. Regime change for compliance, not Empire.

C - Braavos

Maybe I missed something in the book, but there is little evidence of deep connections between LF and the rulers of Braavos. LF had to deal with the Iron Bank, but being a 4th generation migrant does not make a particularly strong association to the current rulers of the place your ancestor left. ("Obama presidency was a Kenyan plot to get back at the British for colonial atrocities." would be less tinfoil.)

D - Republic

No evidence whatsoever. On the contrary, LF is Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, Lord of Harrenhal and currently Lord Protector of the Vale. He already is one of the greatest lords of Westeros in name and in the process of building the power base to act the part. Your "republican revolutionary" is an ambitious social climber and already very close to the top of the ladder.

Rebuttal A) Perhaps "care for" was not the correct wording to use. "Cares about" would be better, as a wine connoisseur would care about a fine vintage. He wants to protect her insofar as he can keep her for himself, which gives the words a more sinister meaning. Petyr cares not for Sansa herself, but for the image he has built in his mind surrounding Sansa. When put that way, your eight points are easily answered. 

1. Had yet to meet Sansa or develop any illusions concerning her.

2. Whether he has developed these feelings or not, he doesn't want her leaving King's Landing so he can remain close to her. 

3. Guarantees Sansa remains in King's Landing.

4. Red Herring. I do not believe Petyr was involved in the execution of Ned. This was a demonstration of Joffrey's monstrosity and uncontrollable nature, not a larger play by any of the players in the game. 

5. Keeps Sansa in King's Landing.

6. Guarantees Sansa must remain hidden with him, keeping her close. 

7. Red Herring. I have yet to parse Petyr's motives in the Jeyna Bolton Gambit, perhaps a plan to turn the North against the Boltons and ensure the fall of the (historical) second house of the North.

8. Red Herring. There is no evidence to conclude Petyr intentionally set off Lady Lysa's jealousy. Rather, the incident in the Eyrie Courtyard seems to be a genuine display of nostalgia on Petyr's part:

Quote

"May I come into your castle, my lady?"

Sansa was wary. "Don't break it. Be..."

"... gentle?" He smiled. "Winterfell has withstood fiercer enemies than me. It is Winterfell, is it not?"

"Yes," Sansa admitted. 

He walked along outside the walls. "I used to dream of it, in those years after Cat went north with Eddard Stark. In my dreams it was ever a dark place, and cold"

...

"I can't think how to do the glass roof over the gardens."

Littlefinger stroked his chin, where his beard had been before Lysa had asked him to shave it off. "The glass was locked in frames, no? Twigs are your answer. Peel them and cross them and use bark to tie them together into frames. I'll show you." He moved through the garden, gathering up twigs and sticks and shaking the snow from them. When he had enough, he stepped over both walls with a single long stride and squatted on his heels in the middle of the yard. Sansa came closer to watch what he was doing. His hands were deft and sure, and before long he had a crisscrossing latticework of twigs, very like the one that roofed the glass gardens of Winterfell. "We will need to imagine the glass, to be sure," he said when he gave it to her.

"This is just right," she said.

He touched her face. "And so is that."

Sansa did not understand. "And so is what?"

"Your smile, my lady. Shall I make another for you?" (Sansa VII ASoS) [Emphasis original]

If you believe Lord Baelish's deliberate master plan was to play Come Into My Castle and relive nostalgic memories of playing make-believe with Cat, make Sansa smile, and kiss her in front of Lady Lysa so Lysa would attempt to murder her, to the point that Sansa loses a shoe through the Moon Door, while a perfect scapegoat just happens to witness the whole incident...

... Then we will have to agree to disagree. George R.R. Martin subscribes to William Faulkner's belief that the only thing worth writing about is "The human heart in conflict with itself." Ned is not so much bound by honor as he is bound up in the lies, promises, and regrets of his past. Cersei is not so much a bumbling conniving seductress as she is desperately attempting to save the lives of her beloved children as the result of an incident in her childhood. It's looking more and more like Varys' scheming comes from a place of love (Blackfyre theory.) In all of this, where does Petyr Baelish stand? He's a human, with human emotions, and a past that he both loves and hates. For these reasons, I cannot believe that Petyr Baelish is nothing but a cold plotter. He doesn't plan out every move twelve steps in advance, but he reacts with emotions that make sense given his story.

Rebuttal B ) This theory does not require direct rule by the Iron Bank. The Iron Bank is given a claim on the throne by the crown's default, and they hand control to whoever buys out the debt, as is the practice of banks.

Rebuttal C) I listed a number of connections Petyr has with Braavos, not merely the family connection, and admitted that any evidence concerning Petyr's long term plans would need to be tangential as all the POV chapters come from lords of the highest born houses, the people who would oppose Petyr's plans in this theory.

Rebuttal D) Petyr has shown no interest in his post as Lord of Harrenhal and the Riverlands, and there is always the possibility that he could rise to the Grand Doge of Westeros or Hand of the Doge in a Great Republic of Westeros, besides the motivations I listed in my original argument. Many historical republicans were near the top of their respective societies but strove for the destruction of the status quo: Washington, Voltaire, Locke, Robespierre, etc. 

On 5/26/2016 at 0:37 PM, Maester of Valyria said:

Mmmh, because Iraq and Afghanistan turned out so well...and Africa is full of well-developed and harmonious countries...

...

I'm also not so sure that Petyr would view Lysa bedding him as abuse, if he truly believed that she was Catelyn (once again, different arguments etc).

Thank you for your words, friend. 

As to your points about recent invasions, that is precisely the point. It will not end well. George R.R. Martin will have a chance to show the chaos that comes as a result of an imposed social order from the perspective of the people who are having the social order imposed on them, something a pacifist hippy like Martin would love to do. Again, this theory is not a prediction of coming events, but thoughts on what Lord Baelish is planning.

As to your point about Lysa's sexual abuse. Imagine this with me:

Catelyn gets drunk one night. Brynden Tully carries her to bed. Petyr sneaks in and has sex with the inebriated woman, who mutters Brandon Stark's name as he does so. He remains with her until morning so she knows what he did... What I just described is a rape exactly like what happened to Petyr with the characters switched around. Petyr's delusion that he made love with Cat that night is a coping mechanism often found in rape survivors: a restructuring of the memory to reduce the victim's trauma. 

 

20 hours ago, Brianstorm said:

Amazing theory! I think if it's true that it would have something to do with the Faceless Men however, since they ARE Braavos and the Iron Bank. etc/

Great point. This might actually help explain why a Faceless Man killed King Balon. Perhaps the Faceless Men are in on the plot, and sought to confuse the greatest naval power in Westeros, the greatest challenge to Braavosi naval superiority. Perhaps they believed that Asha would rise to power, not anticipating a Kingsmoot (Which would be ironic... Not foreseeing a Republican resolution of the situation) and that Asha may be more pliable to their schemes or else not as warlike as her father.

But Euron would have seen the death of King Balon in the fires, and that explains his sudden appearance the day after the regicide. Otherwise, Euron would have needed to pay for the Faceless Man himself, which he certainly has the money for. But, why would he use a Faceless Man if he was just going to appear the day after King Balon's death, and thereby immediately place himself as a suspect in the murder? Why not send one of his own people to do it? It can't be hard to throw an old man off a bridge.

Very interesting. Thank you.  

 

---

 

I would like to submit another argument for your consideration: an argument from history. 

If you were to read The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli, you would think it a strategy guide written by Petyr Baelish. Further, descriptions of Petyr Baelish curiously match contemporary paintings and statuary we have of Machiavelli. 

The Prince is a treatise on power politics for monarchs, but many historians today believe that Machiavelli was a secret republican. One of Machiavelli's motives may have been to initiate misrule by the new prince of Firenze (I refuse to say "Florence") and reinstate republicanism in his home city. 

Another argument: an argument from literary symbolism.

Lord Baelish changed his sigil from the head of the Titan of Braavos to a Mockingbird. Mockingbirds are known for imitating the calls of other birds in rapid succession. I believe that Petyr is mocking the calls of monarchists and high nobles, all the while singing a tune of republicanism in his heart. The Mockingbird sigil is a symbol for this action. 

 

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19 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

Thank you for your words, friend. 

As to your points about recent invasions, that is precisely the point. It will not end well. George R.R. Martin will have a chance to show the chaos that comes as a result of an imposed social order from the perspective of the people who are having the social order imposed on them, something a pacifist hippy like Martin would love to do. Again, this theory is not a prediction of coming events, but thoughts on what Lord Baelish is planning.

As to your point about Lysa's sexual abuse. Imagine this with me:

Catelyn gets drunk one night. Brynden Tully carries her to bed. Petyr sneaks in and has sex with the inebriated woman, who mutters Brandon Stark's name as he does so. He remains with her until morning so she knows what he did... What I just described is a rape exactly like what happened to Petyr with the characters switched around. Petyr's delusion that he made love with Cat that night is a coping mechanism often found in rape survivors: a restructuring of the memory to reduce the victim's trauma. 

  • Exactly: why would Braavos want to create such instability right on their doorstep?
  • 'Pacifist hippy'? You sound like you disapprove.
  • Oh, I completely see it as abuse. The question is, does Petyr see it as abuse, given that he thinks that Lysa was in fact the love of his life Catelyn?
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10 hours ago, Maester of Valyria said:
  • Exactly: why would Braavos want to create such instability right on their doorstep?
  • 'Pacifist hippy'? You sound like you disapprove.
  • Oh, I completely see it as abuse. The question is, does Petyr see it as abuse, given that he thinks that Lysa was in fact the love of his life Catelyn?

Thank you for your continued critiques, friend. 

1) Westeros is already an unstable mess, Petyr saw to that. Petyr is also working to continue the instability by arranging a War of the Three Queens. This, along with the default on the loans from the Iron Bank, will render pro-stability arguments from non-interventionist parties in Braavos moot. Further, the instability of Westeros has led to a slave-refugee crisis directly in Braavos. The Sealord's seizure of the Lyseni pirate ship Goodheart, bearing Free Folk as slaves (The Blind Girl, ADwD,) would generate an immediate refugee situation (granted, we have yet to see this crisis.) I do not believe the seizure of Goodheart was set up by Petyr or his co-conspirators, but this is the sort of event a pro-invasion party could use to demonstrate that Westerosi instability has had a direct impact on Braavos and some action needs to be taken. 

So now we have a whole list of motivations for Braavosi intervention in the Westerosi civil wars:

          A) Default of Iron Bank debt (Legal casus belli)

          B ) Ending feudal serfdom (Cultural casus belli)

          C) Ending the enslavement of Westerosi refugees (Humanitarian casus belli)

          D) Westerosi instability is having a direct effect on Braavos and their interests (Economic casus belli)

          E) Increased access to Westerosi raw materials such as timber, firewood, peat, ironwood, wierwood, fishing resources, pelts, ore, flax, foodstuffs, etc (Reasons Braavosi princes and merchants might support an intervention)

Given all these reasons, Braavosi non-intervention is almost less believable than some form of direct action.

Other meta-evidence would suggest something along these lines too. In the Land of Ice and Fire map set, there are two city maps. One of them is King's Landing, included for obvious reasons, and the other is Braavos. King's Landing's significance to the story is obvious, but why also include a beautifully detailed map of Braavos unless it were to play a significant role in the story? Well over a hundred chapters take place in King's Landing, but so far I'd estimate less than a dozen chapters take place in Braavos. And I've already mentioned the Checkhov's Gun Braavos is currently holding. Further meta-evidence comes from history. As the Byzantine Empire fell, the Republic of Venice was able to acquire lands well beyond the boundaries of the city. While I doubt that Braavos means to seize Westerosi lands, this does show that the primary inspiration for Braavos was willing to take advantage of a crumbling empire for their own advantage.  

2) I believe Martin has described himself as a 'pacifist' and a 'hippie' at various times, I could be wrong. This description was not meant as a pejorative. I myself subscribe to non-interventionism, but I love GMOs too much to be a hippie. My father's a hippie, so I have some hippie blood in me... Not on me...  

3) Repressed memories are not erased memories. A person is still affected by the memories subconsciously, even though the conscious brain has had direct access locked off from those events. I did not include Lady Lysa's full quote in my earlier explanation:

Quote

"Even so, I stayed with him until the sky began to lighten. Your mother did not deserve him... I gave him everything. He is mine now." (Sansa VII ASoS)

 So we know that Lysa stayed the night with Petyr. We do not know whether he woke up or not. I find it likely that Petyr did wake up, realized what Lysa did, and sent her away. Lysa, a person who often closes her eyes to unpleasant truths (As in the case against Tyrion) refused to admit Petyr did not appreciate her and so stops the story short at "until the sky began to lighten."

We know that Lady Lysa next slept with Petyr after the duel with Brandon Stark. Petyr was injured, likely on milk of the poppy, and emotionally crippled. The day of the duel was clearly the worst day of his life. The woman he loved refused to give him her favor, the closest person he had to a brother (Edmure) betrays him to squire for his opponent, Brandon destroys him, and Catelyn refuses to see him afterwards. In this, his lowest moment, Lysa takes advantage of him again. This time, Petyr remembers the encounter. This may be the genesis of Petyr's saying:

Quote

"When you find yourself in bed with an ugly woman, the best thing to do is close your eyes and get on with it." (Eddard VIII AGoT)

Lysa is an ugly woman, maybe not physically but relationally. She takes advantage of Petyr in his weakest moments and preys on his love for Cat. She claims ownership of him, she demands everything from him. And when Petyr finds himself in bed with her, she must have just worn at him until he "closed his eyes and got on with it." I imagine that this time, though, Lysa would not allow Petyr to say Cat's name. And with him physically weakened by the drugs and Brandon's wounds, he would be unable to fight back. So he was forced to remember what Lysa did with him. And then, in the days after, he accepted it and went along with her seductions until Lysa's pregnancy.

After Hoster's expulsion of Petyr, Lord Baelish has to go back to his keep on the Fingers. And we have to ask an important question I've never heard anyone else ask: where is Petyr's family? 

We don't have a single name for any Baelish beyond Petyr and Petyr's mother Alayne. The only thing we hear of House Baelish is that one was a Braavosi sellsword in service to the Corbrays, the next was granted a landed knighthood on the FIngers, Petyr's father fought in the Stepstones during the War of the Ninepenny Kings, and then we arrive at Petyr. Does he have any siblings? Where are his parents now? What about aunts and uncles? There's no mention of a lichyard where they might be buried. And Petyr's household staff make no mention of any family members. Could Hoster have taken in Petyr because he was orphaned in the war? Consider this detail from the interior of Petyr's holdfast:

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Above the hearth hung a broken longsword and a battered oaken shield, its paint cracked and flaking.

The device painted on the shield was one Sansa did not know; a grey stone head with fiery eyes, upon a light green field. "My grandfather's shield," Petyr explained when he saw her gazing at it. "His own father was born in Braavos and came to the Vale as a sellsword in the hire of Lord Corbray, so my grandfather took the head of the Titan as his sigil when he was knighted." (Sansa VI ASoS)

Petyr reveals that the shield belonged to his grandfather. He offers no explanation for the broken sword. Could Petyr's father have lost his life in the Stepstones? Did Hoster take Petyr on as his ward not only out of friendship, but obligation? We do not know, but it would explain why a minor noble from the Vale would be warded in the highest seat in the Riverlands, as well as the broken sword.

And when Petyr returned to the Fingers following his expulsion from Riverrun, he would be alone, recovering from both emotional and physical hurts, while the Titan of Braavos stared at him as he supped and broke his fast on seaweed soup and gull's eggs and cold mutton. Sansa remarks that the Titan is "Very fierce." That fierce Titan would remind Petyr of his lineage every day, and perhaps plant the ideas of republic in his mind as a way to get back at the system that had hurt him.

5 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

This maybe the final stage of the last of the Blackfyre Rebellions either Baelish is a Blackfyre or he was descended from the thief known as Quickfinger  who stole a dragon egg. 

Interesting, though I don't think that Petyr has any dragon eggs to speak of. 

 

On 5/27/2016 at 10:16 PM, Knight and Dayne said:

Littlefinger certainly has opinions on the issue:

Sounds like Littlefinger has used, or at least has experience with the FM, but I don't think he'd be willing to pay the price for them to be a part of a potential republican plot. I think it would be more accurate to say that the FM are an institution of Braavos alongside the IB. Their story of the founding of Braavos puts them at the center of the action; I bet if a representative of the IB told the story of the founding of Braavos they'd claim to be the original bond between disparate groups of escaped slaves, and the force that makes Braavos so powerful.

I'd forgotten that Petyr had that tidbit at the small council, yet another layer of Braavosi connection for him.

Faceless Man involvement in the plot would also help explain Jaqen H'Gar's presence in Westeros, as well as his interest in Arya. Jaqen could be a recon man going through the Seven Kingdoms, seeing how the society works, sending reports back to Braavos. His meeting with Arya was fortuitous, and he would know of Petyr's interest in Catelyn's daughters. Just a thought...

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On ‎5‎/‎23‎/‎2016 at 7:11 AM, John Doe said:

Westeros isn't ready for a republic. Not enough of a bourgeoisie and not nearly enough urbanization. 

Yes.

On ‎5‎/‎23‎/‎2016 at 8:46 AM, House Cambodia said:

It's certainly a well-thought out and intriguing theory. I doubt that it's down to LF, but we're at a point where Tommen is about to die and there will be no credible claimant in Westeros to the throne (you've accounted for Stannis). So the time would be ripe in the power vacuum to instigate a Republic.

However, there is a huge elephant in the room that you haven't accounted for - scaly fire-breathing elephant.

Is he aware of Daenerys? He's supposed to know everything - news must have reached Braavos and from there to LF. For all her enlightened anti-slavery principles, she has no time for Republicanism given her self-aware divinely ordained mission to rule Westeros from the Iron Throne. So how he does factor Dany into his grand scheme?

Forget Dany. Aegon is already there.

On ‎5‎/‎23‎/‎2016 at 9:06 AM, Scorpion92 said:

Yeah, a very good theory, and probably has merit. It actually ties up with my 

After watching this season of the show and reading closely Davos' POV chapters, I came to one conclusion - after the situation in the North stabilizes by the end of Winds of Winter, and I mean by that, Jon will take back Winterfell with Free Folk and become King in the North (but he will be CHOSEN to be King by wildlings, not because he has Stark blood), I think Jon will appoint Davos as his Hand of the King and Master of Ships (two seats in small council) and award him White Harbor as his new seat (Manderlys are going down along with other northern noble houses).

Since Jon already was in contact with Tycho Nestoris, there is a connection between Iron Bank and future King in the North. I think Jon will send Davos as his representative to Braavos to talk to Iron Bank. They are an independent kingdom once again, but they know whoever sits on the Iron Throne (Cersei, Aegon, Dany) will not tolerate the North as independent entity, and the answer will come. Therefore, Jon will need Davos to arrange terms with Braavosi regarding funding and naval support.

And I think Davos will be our POV in Braavos when Long Night comes - the city will be destroyed and drowned by the catastrophe (tsunamis caused by moon meteor, big thank to LmL and his theories). 

Now, if your theory of Littlefinger planning an invasion of Braavosi for eventual overthrow of feudalism in Westeros is true, then I believe Davos will persuade Braavosi survivors to find new home not in the Vale, but in the North - White Harbor. Davos will see a MASSIVE opportunity to integrate Braavosi superior knowledge and technology regarding everything into the North and benefit his new king, who was ELECTED as such thanks to influx of more liberal minded wildlings and their "fuck kneeling" ways.

I think it all ties up nicely.

I think you've given too much weight to what you see in the show. I don't think the books support what you're suggesting.

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On ‎5‎/‎25‎/‎2016 at 1:31 PM, thought_criminal22 said:

I will do so from now on, thank you.

Thank you, friend. Again, my goal is not to predict what will happen. I am only attempting to discern Petyr's overall plan.

I do believe we are seeing some rising action from the Iron Bank, however. 1) Noho Dimittis is sent to King's landing to demand continuation of payments after Queen Regent Cersei decides to defer the debt (AFfC Cersei V.)

2) The Iron Bank begins calling in debt throughout the realm:

3) Tycho Nestorius arrives at Eastwatch by the Sea and makes out a loan to the Night's Watch. This is notable because in the previous action, we hear they are refusing all new loans in Westeros (ADwD Jon IX.)

4) Tycho Nestorius arrives in King Stannis' war camp and grants him a loan:

In my experience with literary subjects, rising action foretells a coming climactic moment wherein multiple plot strings reach some form of conclusion.

It is my belief that this rising action provides 1) A legal argument for the Iron Bank's claim on the Iron Throne. 2) Economic chaos that will allow Lord Baelish to recruit the cooperation of indebted lords (Also, it could be the Iron Bank making an effort to recoup debt before the war or winter.) 3) Unknown, Nestorius didn't seem to expect this conversation, but the Night's Watch is a venerable organization whose debts will never die. 4) Provides a legitimate reason for Braavosi-paid sellswords to arrive in the North (I doubt the Iron Bank believes Stannis can actually win the war, by the by.) 

The reasons for these actions are simple. They have decided to fund Stannis' claim to the throne. By taking all these other actions they are making sure that the enemies Stannis is fighting are cash strapped and in a worse situation than he is. Nothing more, nothing less. And yes, they do believe that Stannis can win. They would not fund him otherwise. What the IB is doing is making sure their preferred candidate is well funded and everyone else is as poorly funded as they can make them. Really, it is just that simple.

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Thank's very much for your detailed replies; I am enjoying this discussion immensely!

On 29/05/2016 at 2:43 AM, thought_criminal22 said:

1) Westeros is already an unstable mess, Petyr saw to that. Petyr is also working to continue the instability by arranging a War of the Three Queens. This, along with the default on the loans from the Iron Bank, will render pro-stability arguments from non-interventionist parties in Braavos moot. Further, the instability of Westeros has led to a slave-refugee crisis directly in Braavos. The Sealord's seizure of the Lyseni pirate ship Goodheart, bearing Free Folk as slaves (The Blind Girl, ADwD,) would generate an immediate refugee situation (granted, we have yet to see this crisis.) I do not believe the seizure of Goodheart was set up by Petyr or his co-conspirators, but this is the sort of event a pro-invasion party could use to demonstrate that Westerosi instability has had a direct impact on Braavos and some action needs to be taken. 

So now we have a whole list of motivations for Braavosi intervention in the Westerosi civil wars:

          A) Default of Iron Bank debt (Legal casus belli)

          B ) Ending feudal serfdom (Cultural casus belli)

          C) Ending the enslavement of Westerosi refugees (Humanitarian casus belli)

          D) Westerosi instability is having a direct effect on Braavos and their interests (Economic casus belli)

          E) Increased access to Westerosi raw materials such as timber, firewood, peat, ironwood, wierwood, fishing resources, pelts, ore, flax, foodstuffs, etc (Reasons Braavosi princes and merchants might support an intervention)

Given all these reasons, Braavosi non-intervention is almost less believable than some form of direct action.

The thing is, even more chaos will only delay repayment of the Crown's loans further, and the Bank can't want that. In addition such explicit intervention would undoubtedly damage the Iron Bank's and Braavos' reputations across the wider world: a ruinous prospect for bodies that thrive on trade.

How has Westeros' instability led to a slave crisis in Braavos? It's a big city, and I'm sure they have experience in resettling freed slaves from different cultures.

A) Once again, the Iron Bank's only legal hope of collecting the debt is to promote peace and stability in Westeros.

B.) Braavos doesn't seem to be that bothered by other cultures' practices: it trades with all the other Free Cities after all, most of which are slave cities. Ending serfdom in Westeros would definitely not be an acceptable reason for intervention in the eyes of the other Free Cites: most of their economies rely on slavery after all.

C) This doesn't seem to be caused by instability in the Seven Kingdoms (which owes the Bank) but beyond the Wall (which has negligible contact with the outside world. It's hard to see how Braavosi intervention would help the wildlings

D) Other than the Crown's refusal to pay the Iron Bank, do we have much evidence to suggest that Braavos' other interests are being damaged by Westeros' civil war?

E) This is a good one. However surely a more practical and internationally (not the best word perhaps but you catch the drift) acceptable method of gaining these resources would be to wipe some of the Bank's debt in exchange for Westerosi resources (eg logging rights on Crackclaw Point for ten years in exchange for the Crown's debt being cut in half). This would have the combined benefits of promoting stability in the region, gaining valuable natural resources for Braavos, being a face-saving way for the Iron Bank to write off part of the debt, and being acceptable to the other Free Cities.

I will just (pedantically) point out that Braavos will have little to no interest in Westerosi fish, given that the westernmost reaches of the Shivering Sea, from Skagos and the Grey Cliffs to the delta of the Sarne, are the richest fishing grounds in the known world.

 

On 29/05/2016 at 2:43 AM, thought_criminal22 said:

2) I believe Martin has described himself as a 'pacifist' and a 'hippie' at various times, I could be wrong. This description was not meant as a pejorative. I myself subscribe to non-interventionism (same), but I love GMOs too much to be a hippie. My father's a hippie, so I have some hippie blood in me... Not on me... 

Fair enough!

On 29/05/2016 at 2:43 AM, thought_criminal22 said:

3) Repressed memories are not erased memories. A person is still affected by the memories subconsciously, even though the conscious brain has had direct access locked off from those events. I did not include Lady Lysa's full quote in my earlier explanation:

Quote

snip

 So we know that Lysa stayed the night with Petyr. We do not know whether he woke up or not. I find it likely that Petyr did wake up, realized what Lysa did, and sent her away. Lysa, a person who often closes her eyes to unpleasant truths (As in the case against Tyrion) refused to admit Petyr did not appreciate her and so stops the story short at "until the sky began to lighten."

We know that Lady Lysa next slept with Petyr after the duel with Brandon Stark. Petyr was injured, likely on milk of the poppy, and emotionally crippled. The day of the duel was clearly the worst day of his life. The woman he loved refused to give him her favor, the closest person he had to a brother (Edmure) betrays him to squire for his opponent, Brandon destroys him, and Catelyn refuses to see him afterwards. In this, his lowest moment, Lysa takes advantage of him again. This time, Petyr remembers the encounter. This may be the genesis of Petyr's saying:

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"When you find yourself in bed with an ugly woman, the best thing to do is close your eyes and get on with it." (Eddard VIII AGoT)

Lysa is an ugly woman, maybe not physically but relationally. She takes advantage of Petyr in his weakest moments and preys on his love for Cat. She claims ownership of him, she demands everything from him. And when Petyr finds himself in bed with her, she must have just worn at him until he "closed his eyes and got on with it." I imagine that this time, though, Lysa would not allow Petyr to say Cat's name. And with him physically weakened by the drugs and Brandon's wounds, he would be unable to fight back. So he was forced to remember what Lysa did with him. And then, in the days after, he accepted it and went along with her seductions until Lysa's pregnancy.

That's an excellent explanation, thank you! Although Petyr does seem quite proud to boast of having had both the girls' maidenheads?

 

On 29/05/2016 at 2:43 AM, thought_criminal22 said:

After Hoster's expulsion of Petyr, Lord Baelish has to go back to his keep on the Fingers. And we have to ask an important question I've never heard anyone else ask: where is Petyr's family? 

We don't have a single name for any Baelish beyond Petyr and Petyr's mother Alayne. The only thing we hear of House Baelish is that one was a Braavosi sellsword in service to the Corbrays, the next was granted a landed knighthood on the FIngers, Petyr's father fought in the Stepstones during the War of the Ninepenny Kings, and then we arrive at Petyr. Does he have any siblings? Where are his parents now? What about aunts and uncles? There's no mention of a lichyard where they might be buried. And Petyr's household staff make no mention of any family members. Could Hoster have taken in Petyr because he was orphaned in the war? Consider this detail from the interior of Petyr's holdfast:

Quote

snip

Petyr reveals that the shield belonged to his grandfather. He offers no explanation for the broken sword. Could Petyr's father have lost his life in the Stepstones? Did Hoster take Petyr on as his ward not only out of friendship, but obligation? We do not know, but it would explain why a minor noble from the Vale would be warded in the highest seat in the Riverlands, as well as the broken sword.

And when Petyr returned to the Fingers following his expulsion from Riverrun, he would be alone, recovering from both emotional and physical hurts, while the Titan of Braavos stared at him as he supped and broke his fast on seaweed soup and gull's eggs and cold mutton. Sansa remarks that the Titan is "Very fierce." That fierce Titan would remind Petyr of his lineage every day, and perhaps plant the ideas of republic in his mind as a way to get back at the system that had hurt him.

This is a very interesting question: I always assumed that his family was all dead, but you're right to question the circumstances of all this. If I were you I'd start a new thread on this very topic: perhaps Hoster fostered Petyr after Petyr's father died saving his life in the war?

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I like parts of this, but I think a full-scale invasion on a continental level is waaaay too much risk for the Iron Bank. Banks get rich by eliminating as much risk as possible. They have been shown to take fliers sometimes, like funding Stannis's struggling claim, though I don't think we know how much they gave him. 

The plan you laid out COULD work, but has a ton of variables from assuming men like Tarly and enough of the Vale would turn cloak and that they could succeed in the field at all. Plus the severe winter they surely know is coming, even if they don't know the severity. Banks do not like variables. 

Not to mention the enormous amount of money it would take to not only fund the invasion but to govern and rebuild a nation exponentially larger and more populous than their new rulers.

I wish we knew what 3 million dragons really means to the Iron Bank. Surely it's nothing to sneeze at, but I don't think it's worth a massive war to them. As Maester of Valyria said, the best hope for the Iron Bank to get their money back is promote peace in Westeros. 

If the IB really wanted to take their money back, it would far easier for them to use their naval might to launch large-scale raids on Westeros's port cities (the only cities), sack those and head home, daring Westeros to take on the wall of sails. Or, if you blow all our minds and are totally correct, I think the IB is smart enough to know LF is a conniving little sh*t and off him as soon as they don't need him, which would really be the most fitting end for him. 

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A man sees what he wants to see.

LF infatuation with Sansa seems to begin at the Hand's Tourney - then her family is still alive and well in King's Landing. A lot of moves by LF from that point onward endanger her. The whole Stark household in KL is slaughtered, Sansa is the only official survivor apart from Arya who vanishes. The only person we see moving to protect some people in the aftermath is Varys (with Gendry and possibly Arya if Yoren is affiliated with him), LF does exactly nothing. If Sansa safety, even in a creepy abusive way, is a motive for him at all, he would plot differently. The Riot of King's Landing may (as some believe) or may not be organised by LF, either way, he is not there to protect Sansa. Sandor is. Sansa surviving Joffrey abuse is more due to Sandor survival tips and Tyrion intervention, LF is again nowhere to be seen. ... And no, I am not saying

Quote

Lord Baelish's deliberate master plan was to play Come Into My Castle and relive nostalgic memories of playing make-believe with Cat, make Sansa smile, and kiss her in front of Lady Lysa so Lysa would attempt to murder her, to the point that Sansa loses a shoe through the Moon Door, while a perfect scapegoat just happens to witness the whole incident...

 

I am saying, the way LF acts towards Sansa with a mentally unstable Lysa Arryn around is highly provocative and did endanger Sansa. You wish to see LF protecting Sansa and so you do, even if he was the reason she came so close to the open moon door in the first place.

 

 

On 27.5.2016 at 0:08 AM, thought_criminal22 said:

Rebuttal B ) This theory does not require direct rule by the Iron Bank. The Iron Bank is given a claim on the throne by the crown's default, and they hand control to whoever buys out the debt, as is the practice of banks.

Rebuttal C) I listed a number of connections Petyr has with Braavos, not merely the family connection, and admitted that any evidence concerning Petyr's long term plans would need to be tangential as all the POV chapters come from lords of the highest born houses, the people who would oppose Petyr's plans in this theory.

Rebuttal D) Petyr has shown no interest in his post as Lord of Harrenhal and the Riverlands, and there is always the possibility that he could rise to the Grand Doge of Westeros or Hand of the Doge in a Great Republic of Westeros, besides the motivations I listed in my original argument. Many historical republicans were near the top of their respective societies but strove for the destruction of the status quo: Washington, Voltaire, Locke, Robespierre, etc.

B ) A bank working for a more compliant ruler isn't exactly the same as completely changing the political system. You fail to provide any hints that the bank works for a different type of government. There is no evidence of the bank intending to change the political system in Westeros. (RL equivalents such as Genoese banks, Genoa being a republic of sorts, bankrolled European monarchies for a long time without a revolutionary agenda. Business and revolutionary zeal don't mix well.) You also seem to assume LF and the Iron Bank are cooperating, try to look at it from the IBs perspective: LF sold them (as it turns out:) bad debt and uses IB retaliatory measures to buy influence with indebted nobles, but they are not colluding toward a common goal. LF instigated wars, debt crisis etc. harm IB profits.

C ) Yes, you had a number of other connections to Braavos. None of which are particularly strong evidence he is conspiring for a republican government with the sea lord or anyone else. Bluntly, it is "Obama travelled in a plane from Kenya once and the plane returned to Nairobi afterwards." type evidence.

D ) So LF gets a specific lordship by carefully maneuvering, but he might dream of becoming a founding father of the United States of Westeros. He might, but where is the evidence? That he doesn't take up his seat in a castle that is 1) initially occupied by others and 2) oversize, 3) situated in the most devastated area of Westeros, 4) while he has no military power to speak about on his own, 5) in fall or early winter, 6) when there are no provisions in place can have many reasons (e.g. those given above), but in itself it is hardly evidence for republican leanings.

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On 5/29/2016 at 5:44 AM, bent branch said:

The reasons for these actions are simple. They have decided to fund Stannis' claim to the throne. By taking all these other actions they are making sure that the enemies Stannis is fighting are cash strapped and in a worse situation than he is. Nothing more, nothing less. And yes, they do believe that Stannis can win. They would not fund him otherwise. What the IB is doing is making sure their preferred candidate is well funded and everyone else is as poorly funded as they can make them. Really, it is just that simple.

Thanks for your critique, friend.

With three potential royal candidates for deposing the Iron Throne: Stannis, Aegon VI, and Daenerys, the Iron bank chooses to back Stannis. Let's review:

1. Stannis lost the major battle of the war at the Blackwater, losing the majority of his forces to defection in the process.

2. Stannis is a fanatical adherent of a religion foreign to Westeros. 

3. Stannis set his most important advisor on fire in a religious ritual (Alester Florent.)

4. Stannis has no son, only a daughter blighted by greyscale as his heir (read: succession crisis in the making.)

5. Stannis is well known as a man who does not inspire love among either lords or smallfolk.

Quote

"King Robert was well loved, and most men still accept that Tommen is his son. The more they see of Lord Stannis, the less they love him." (Jon III ADwW) 

6. Stannis' power at sea has abandoned him.

Quote

Soon or late the world would learn that Salladhor Saan had abandoned Stannis Baratheon, leaving him without a fleet. (Davos I ADwD)

7. Stannis has completely run out of funds for his war effort prior to acquiring a loan.

Quote

The Lannisters had all the hold of Casterly Rock, and had wed the wealth of Highgarden. King Stannis's coffers were exhausted. (Davos I ADwD)

8. Stannis' final stronghold South of the Neck, Storm's End, has fallen to a rival contender for the throne (Aegon VI.)

Quote

“Has no one told you?”   Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” (Arianne II TWoW Sample Chapter)

9. Stannis is losing horses and men every day in his Northern Campaign to the most basic of enemies: cold and hunger. 

Quote

... There was no food, beyond their failing horses, fish taken from lakes (fewer every day), and whatever meagre sustenance their foragers could find in these cold, dead woods. With the king's knights and lords claiming the lion's share of the horsemeat, little and less remained for the common men. Small wonder then that they had started eating their own dead... 

... Four days ago, one of the king's own squires had succumbed to cold and hunger, a boy named Bryen Farring who'd been kin to Ser Godry. Stannis Baratheon stood grim-faced by the funeral pyre as the lad's body was consigned to the flames. Afterward the king had retreated to his watchtower. He had not emerged since... Though from time to time His Grace was glimpsed upon the tower roof, outlined against the beacon fire that burned there night and day... It seemed to Asha Greyjoy, the king was lost and crying out for help. (The Sacrifice ADwD)

If I am in risk assessment for the Iron Bank, I would pass on making out a loan to Stannis. I would instead look to Aegon VI or Dany, probably Aegon. If anything, the Iron Bank is backing the horse with the longest chance at victory. 

On 5/31/2016 at 8:27 AM, Lord Vance II said:

I like parts of this, but I think a full-scale invasion on a continental level is waaaay too much risk for the Iron Bank. Banks get rich by eliminating as much risk as possible. They have been shown to take fliers sometimes, like funding Stannis's struggling claim, though I don't think we know how much they gave him. 

The plan you laid out COULD work, but has a ton of variables from assuming men like Tarly and enough of the Vale would turn cloak and that they could succeed in the field at all. Plus the severe winter they surely know is coming, even if they don't know the severity. Banks do not like variables. 

Not to mention the enormous amount of money it would take to not only fund the invasion but to govern and rebuild a nation exponentially larger and more populous than their new rulers.

I wish we knew what 3 million dragons really means to the Iron Bank. Surely it's nothing to sneeze at, but I don't think it's worth a massive war to them. As Maester of Valyria said, the best hope for the Iron Bank to get their money back is promote peace in Westeros. 

If the IB really wanted to take their money back, it would far easier for them to use their naval might to launch large-scale raids on Westeros's port cities (the only cities), sack those and head home, daring Westeros to take on the wall of sails. Or, if you blow all our minds and are totally correct, I think the IB is smart enough to know LF is a conniving little sh*t and off him as soon as they don't need him, which would really be the most fitting end for him. 

Thank you for your critiques, friend.

One solution to these problems may have been hinted at in Cersei's interior monologue:

Quote

The Braavosi were demanding repayment of their outstanding debts, it seemed, and refusing all new loans. We need our own bank, Cersei decided, the Golden Bank of Lannisport. Perhaps when Tommen's throne was secure, she could make that happen. (Cersei VIII AFfC)

If Petyr could offer a grand enough prize to the Iron Bank in exchange for their cooperation, I believe they would go along with his plans. As it happens, he has that prize in his possession right now: Harrenhal. The Iron Bank may be one of the few institutions in the world who could properly put Harrenhal to use. They are famous for using every asset to its fullest advantage, and Harrenhal could make an excellent repository for the wealth of Westeros as they open a Westerosi branch for their operations. Or, as suggested by Cersei, they could take over Casterly Rock and use it in much the same way as the Iron Bank used its first iron mine.

Granted, this is pure speculation, but it could solve the problems you mentioned above. 

As to whether they would kill Lord Baelish, I don't know what to say to that. I believe Petyr's portrayal as a Snidely Whiplash character comes from the biased POVs of the chapters (Nearly all highborns who would see Petyr's rise as a threat to the establishment,) and that he is a much more sympathetic character when examined thoroughly (Likely orphaned, brought up in an environment he could never hope to be a part of, sexually abused at his weakest moments, physically and emotionally destroyed for what he felt was love.) One of the reasons I like this theory is it allows for a Martinian twist on the character trope most often ascribed to Lord Baelish. I first came to this theory after wondering why Lothor Brune seemed so dedicated to Lord Baelish, such that Petyr trusted Lothor with Sansa's identity. I came to the conclusion that whatever Petyr was doing, Lothor had to believe in it, and I don't think Snidely Whiplashes get that kind of devotion. 

That all said, I believe this plan will fail, and it will be because of Petyr's greatest weakness: his love for Catelyn. I believe his love for Catelyn is the primary motivation behind the Alayne Stone/Sansa gambit (claims to Winterfell aside,) and the Ghost of High Heart (whose predictions have so far all come true) prophecies that:

Quote

"I dreamt of a maid at a feast with purple serpents in her hair, venom dripping from their fangs. And later I dreamt that maid again, slaying a savage giant in a castle built of snow." (Arya VIII ASoS)

This correctly predicts that Sansa would bring poison to the feast at the Purple Wedding. And then I believe it predicts Sansa will thwart Petyr's plans at Winterfell and cause the Republican plans to come crashing down. The savage giant representing the Titan of Braavos. Whether this means Petyr's death, I would not hazard a guess.... Though it could also be about tearing apart Sweetrobin's doll in the snowcastle she built with Lord Baelish. 

On 5/31/2016 at 7:04 AM, Maester of Valyria said:

Thank's very much for your detailed replies; I am enjoying this discussion immensely!

The thing is, even more chaos will only delay repayment of the Crown's loans further, and the Bank can't want that. In addition such explicit intervention would undoubtedly damage the Iron Bank's and Braavos' reputations across the wider world: a ruinous prospect for bodies that thrive on trade.

How has Westeros' instability led to a slave crisis in Braavos? It's a big city, and I'm sure they have experience in resettling freed slaves from different cultures.

A) Once again, the Iron Bank's only legal hope of collecting the debt is to promote peace and stability in Westeros.

B.) Braavos doesn't seem to be that bothered by other cultures' practices: it trades with all the other Free Cities after all, most of which are slave cities. Ending serfdom in Westeros would definitely not be an acceptable reason for intervention in the eyes of the other Free Cites: most of their economies rely on slavery after all.

C) This doesn't seem to be caused by instability in the Seven Kingdoms (which owes the Bank) but beyond the Wall (which has negligible contact with the outside world. It's hard to see how Braavosi intervention would help the wildlings

D) Other than the Crown's refusal to pay the Iron Bank, do we have much evidence to suggest that Braavos' other interests are being damaged by Westeros' civil war?

E) This is a good one. However surely a more practical and internationally (not the best word perhaps but you catch the drift) acceptable method of gaining these resources would be to wipe some of the Bank's debt in exchange for Westerosi resources (eg logging rights on Crackclaw Point for ten years in exchange for the Crown's debt being cut in half). This would have the combined benefits of promoting stability in the region, gaining valuable natural resources for Braavos, being a face-saving way for the Iron Bank to write off part of the debt, and being acceptable to the other Free Cities.

I will just (pedantically) point out that Braavos will have little to no interest in Westerosi fish, given that the westernmost reaches of the Shivering Sea, from Skagos and the Grey Cliffs to the delta of the Sarne, are the richest fishing grounds in the known world.

 

Fair enough!

That's an excellent explanation, thank you! Although Petyr does seem quite proud to boast of having had both the girls' maidenheads?

 

This is a very interesting question: I always assumed that his family was all dead, but you're right to question the circumstances of all this. If I were you I'd start a new thread on this very topic: perhaps Hoster fostered Petyr after Petyr's father died saving his life in the war?

I guess we're at a place where we have to define the difference between rhetorical and actual casus belli

To illustrate, I'll go back to the Iraq war. 

Saddam Hussein's Iraqi military did at one point have biological and chemical weapons. in 2003, there was a branch of Al Queda stationed in the northeastern regions of the country. Saddam had violently oppressed his people with conventional and chemical weaponry. And Saddam did have a history of aggression against neighbors (Iran, Israel, Kuwait.)

Together, these reasons formed a rhetorical casus belli for the invasion of Iraq by U.S., U.K., Australian, and Polish forces. 

But, in actuality, nearly all of these casus belli break down after just a moment's deconstruction. The biological and chemical weapons had either become inert or were destroyed by UN inspectors. The branch of Al Queda in the northeastern part of the country was out of Saddam's control thanks to the UN enforced no-fly-zone. Most of the violent oppression of the Iraqi people had ceased by 2003, and occurred while Iraq was allied with the U.S. and the U.K. And there was no indication that Iraq was going to invade a neighbor in 2003. 

None of this mattered, because the U.S. and U.K. were not looking for real casus belli, they were looking for rhetorical casus belli that would give them the excuse to go to war. 

I know earlier you said the Sealord of Braavos was not Bush or Blair, but we don't know anything about the Sealord of Braavos. And that may be moot, because the current Sealord is sick and an election is coming, an election Petyr may have some sway in. 

If Petyr is to be believed, then he has actually had some success in manipulating these kinds of events before:

Quote

"When I  came to Highgarden to dicker for Margery's hand, she let her lord son bluster while she asked pointed questions about Joffrey's nature. I praised him to the skies, to be sure... Whilst my men spread disturbing tales amongst Lord Tyrell's servants. That is how the game is played.

"I also planted the notion of Ser Loras taking the white. Not that I suggested it, that would have been too crude. But men in my party supplied grisly tales about how the mob had killed Ser Preston Greenfield and raped Lady Lollys, and slipped a few silvers to Lord Tyrell's army of singers to sing of Ryam Redwyne, Serwyn of the Mirror Shield, and Prince Aemon the Dragonknight. A harp can be as dangerous as a sword, in the right hands." (Sansa VI ASoS)

There are plenty of mummer's troupes in Braavos to manipulate public opinion, and it just so happens that we see one of them in the Mercy sample chapter from Winds of Winter performing a play about Westeros. This may be a part of a propaganda effort to get the people of Braavos on board some sort of intervention. Combine this with parading around the Free Folk captives (It won't matter that they're from north of the Wall, the Interventionists only have to call them Westerosi) as well as the selfish motives of the merchant princes and the Iron Bank, and I think you have a recipe for a Braavosi intervention in Westeros. 

As to my pet theory that Petyr's father lost his life in the Stepstones saving Hoster's life, I must debunk myself. The most conservative estimates place Petyr's age during the War of the Ninepenny Kings as negative 7, and we know that Petyr has memories of his father on the Fingers. But we still have a broken sword to contend with, it could be that Petyr's father was injured saving Hoster's life and lived his final years in extreme pain on the Fingers, and maybe requested that Hoster take Petyr in should he die. It is still exceedingly strange that the most minor of minor lords in the Vale should have his son fostered in the most powerful house in the Riverlands.

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2 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

Thanks for your critique, friend.

With three potential royal candidates for deposing the Iron Throne: Stannis, Aegon VI, and Daenerys, the Iron bank chooses to back Stannis. Let's review:

1. Stannis lost the major battle of the war at the Blackwater, losing the majority of his forces to defection in the process.

2. Stannis is a fanatical adherent of a religion foreign to Westeros. 

3. Stannis set his most important advisor on fire in a religious ritual (Alester Florent.)

4. Stannis has no son, only a daughter blighted by greyscale as his heir (read: succession crisis in the making.)

5. Stannis is well known as a man who does not inspire love among either lords or smallfolk.

6. Stannis' power at sea has abandoned him.

7. Stannis has completely run out of funds for his war effort prior to acquiring a loan.

8. Stannis' final stronghold South of the Neck, Storm's End, has fallen to a rival contender for the throne (Aegon VI.)

9. Stannis is losing horses and men every day in his Northern Campaign to the most basic of enemies: cold and hunger. 

If I am in risk assessment for the Iron Bank, I would pass on making out a loan to Stannis. I would instead look to Aegon VI or Dany, probably Aegon. If anything, the Iron Bank is backing the horse with the longest chance at victory. 

None of what you said outweighs the fact they ARE giving Stannis money that they won't get back unless he wins. Therefore, one must assume that they figure Stannis is their best candidate whatever his perceived weaknesses.

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3 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

With three potential royal candidates for deposing the Iron Throne: Stannis, Aegon VI, and Daenerys, the Iron bank chooses to back Stannis. Let's review:

Aegon was planning to join forces with Dany and went to Westeros only when that plan proved untenable.  Plus they have been operating under considerable secrecy.  Dany is still in Meereen and shows no immediate signs of movement.  It is difficult to finance an insurgency that doesn't even exist yet or that is hiding its very existence.  So far as the Iron Bankknows, Stannis is the only viable alternative to Tommen at the moment.

A few other notes:

So far as I know, there is no serfdom in Westeros.  Peasants can and do move around according to their own interests.

I see no indication that Braavos would have any reason to be interested in changing the system of government in Westeros.  Who is in charge, yes.  But so long as bills are paid, and commerce flows, I doubt they care.

I see no reason whatsoever for Baelish to take command in Harrenhal.  He likes to keep his hands clean, and Harrenhal would require getting them very dirty running the Riverlands.  Most of whose leaders hate him, or at least the Lannisters, with whom he is associated.  Better to stay in the Vale, where he enjoys some support.

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20 hours ago, thought_criminal22 said:

I guess we're at a place where we have to define the difference between rhetorical and actual casus belli

To illustrate, I'll go back to the Iraq war. 

Saddam Hussein's Iraqi military did at one point have biological and chemical weapons. in 2003, there was a branch of Al Queda stationed in the northeastern regions of the country. Saddam had violently oppressed his people with conventional and chemical weaponry. And Saddam did have a history of aggression against neighbors (Iran, Israel, Kuwait.)

Together, these reasons formed a rhetorical casus belli for the invasion of Iraq by U.S., U.K., Australian, and Polish forces. 

But, in actuality, nearly all of these casus belli break down after just a moment's deconstruction. The biological and chemical weapons had either become inert or were destroyed by UN inspectors. The branch of Al Queda in the northeastern part of the country was out of Saddam's control thanks to the UN enforced no-fly-zone. Most of the violent oppression of the Iraqi people had ceased by 2003, and occurred while Iraq was allied with the U.S. and the U.K. And there was no indication that Iraq was going to invade a neighbor in 2003. 

None of this mattered, because the U.S. and U.K. were not looking for real casus belli, they were looking for rhetorical casus belli that would give them the excuse to go to war. 

I know earlier you said the Sealord of Braavos was not Bush or Blair, but we don't know anything about the Sealord of Braavos. And that may be moot, because the current Sealord is sick and an election is coming, an election Petyr may have some sway in. 

If Petyr is to be believed, then he has actually had some success in manipulating these kinds of events before:

Quote

snip

There are plenty of mummer's troupes in Braavos to manipulate public opinion, and it just so happens that we see one of them in the Mercy sample chapter from Winds of Winter performing a play about Westeros. This may be a part of a propaganda effort to get the people of Braavos on board some sort of intervention. Combine this with parading around the Free Folk captives (It won't matter that they're from north of the Wall, the Interventionists only have to call them Westerosi) as well as the selfish motives of the merchant princes and the Iron Bank, and I think you have a recipe for a Braavosi intervention in Westeros. 

As to my pet theory that Petyr's father lost his life in the Stepstones saving Hoster's life, I must debunk myself. The most conservative estimates place Petyr's age during the War of the Ninepenny Kings as negative 7, and we know that Petyr has memories of his father on the Fingers. But we still have a broken sword to contend with, it could be that Petyr's father was injured saving Hoster's life and lived his final years in extreme pain on the Fingers, and maybe requested that Hoster take Petyr in should he die. It is still exceedingly strange that the most minor of minor lords in the Vale should have his son fostered in the most powerful house in the Riverlands.

1. (pre-quote box) Are you saying that Braavos is looking for a rhetorical casus belli for intervention in Westeros? That may be, but I still don't see how this course of action will:

  • promote the peace that the Braavosi need to reclaim the debt, or
  • be acceptable to the other Free Cities, which all have much more blatant slave economies than Westeros and would present a considerably easier target for Braavos

 

2. (post-quote box) Interesting idea with the mummer troupes, I hadn't considered that. Also with the 'parading around the Free Folk captives' (although they were being sold into slavery by the Tyroshi (IIRC) rather than the Westerosi.

As for the 'Petyr's father' question, I bow to your knowledge of this particular theory and of the ages: age conjecture has never really been my thing!

 

 

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On ‎5‎/‎22‎/‎2016 at 7:26 PM, thought_criminal22 said:

After several years of lurking on the forums, I believe I have something to contribute...

The Republic of Littlefinger Theory

Really excellent work. I do have to say that my one and only (though kind of major) beef is that I don't believe littlefinger at heart hates the powerstructure and wants to bring it down and replace it with a republic. Rather, imo, the power structure is to Petyr what Cat was. Something he could never have that he desired very much. He could have ALMOST the power structure. He could become a counsel member, become rich, become a great many things...he could even have cat's sister...but no matter how high he rose it was no use pretending...she wasn't cat and his power and wealth wasn't the same as a great Lord's. He could be hand of the king and people would say he was a whoremonger hand of the king.

 

THat said, I feel he loves it. Despite (or maybe because) the fact that it will never love it back. I think he simply wants the current great houses and lords paramount to be dead and replaced with one's who owe their allegiance to him. Seeing a mockingbird banner fly above all the others at the red keep would be, I think, what he desires most and not to be the right hand man to a Braavosi, to whom, he would still just be some tool to use.

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