The Republic of Littlefinger Theory

[Ser Leftwich]

The question that matters is: What would this add to the story?

99% of the contents of this 'theory' have happened off-camera and readers get no inkling of it from POVs in the books OR another way of saying it, no one in the books is aware of this.

It would add nothing. This would be a nonsensical and, frankly, poor direction for the story to go.

[Brianstorm]

On 5/27/2016 at 11:57 PM, Knight and Dayne said:

Per the World Book:

The IB seems to have grown organically from wise management of the collective wealth of the former slaves that founded the place. Besides, death cults aren't known for their sound finances 

That could easily be a metaphor for The Faceless Men rebelling against Valyria. Or vice-versa except the Doom is real (of course they could have taken advantage of the situation as well).

[Stuart Littlefinger]

On 5/23/2016 at 4:11 PM, John Doe said:

Westeros isn't ready for a republic. Not enough of a bourgeoisie and not nearly enough urbanization. 

Russia wasn't ready for communism but they tried it anyway and it lasted 70 years

[John Doe]

1 hour ago, Stuart Littlefinger said:

Russia wasn't ready for communism but they tried it anyway and it lasted 70 years

And most communists will tell you they didn't have real communism as a result. 

[Maester of Valyria]

2 hours ago, Stuart Littlefinger said:

Russia wasn't ready for communism but they tried it anyway and it lasted 70 years

And after one Cold War and another on the horizon: look at the amazing state Russian communism's legacy has left the world in!

[Knight and Dayne]

14 hours ago, Brianstorm said:

That could easily be a metaphor for The Faceless Men rebelling against Valyria. Or vice-versa except the Doom is real (of course they could have taken advantage of the situation as well).

Usually, I hear "metaphor" on these boards in relation to theories and move along, but on the re-read, it seems you have a point. Especially given the inversion of death as gift we associate with the FM. Nice catch.

[Stuart Littlefinger]

54 minutes ago, John Doe said:

And most communists will tell you they didn't have real communism as a result. 

They didn't but I doubt Littlefinger's Republic would be a real republic either. In Russia they skipped a step and fast-tracked Russia into communism forcibly, instead of it happening more naturally as Marx predicted.

Littlefinger could just as easily skip a step and forcibly fast-track Westeros into a republic, by playing his usual game and speed up the process by bringing down the aristocracy himself through scheming rather than just waiting for the peasants to revolt against them which would be the more natural transition. 

[shadows and dust]

18 hours ago, Ser Leftwich said:

The question that matters is: What would this add to the story?

99% of the contents of this 'theory' have happened off-camera and readers get no inkling of it from POVs in the books OR another way of saying it, no one in the books is aware of this.

It would add nothing. This would be a nonsensical and, frankly, poor direction for the story to go.

I know the OP said this a couple times, but the point of the theory was not "here's what will happen." It was here is what Peter is thinking, why he is thinking it, and what would happen if everything he wished for came to pass. Followed by the OP stating, he didn't think it would happen.

 

This would be akin to what you see as prophetic flash-forward in many sci-fi movies. What would happen if the good guys lost, and the bad guy won. Some post apocalypse landscape the hero sees and draws motivation from. Not to say Peter is a bad guy, just that you often see the "end game that doesn't come to pass" often in that trope.

[Seams]

I've been thinking about this, and I don't think the Republic motive fits with Littlefinger and his actions to date. I hope you don't mind if I lay out my counter argument here.

Petyr says that Catelyn Tully was the first and only love of his life, but I think he got over her awhile ago. I may be wrong, but we didn't get a hint about eye contact or catching his breath or wistful memories when he helped Cat and Ned to rendezvous in his brothel. He seemed more focused on torturing Ned (making him climb down a cliff, insulting his honor by leading him to a brothel, etc.) Petyr also notably eats an apple "down to the seeds" while he waits for Ned to catch up. Classic snake / Garden of Eden / fall from innocence symbolism. I think Petyr became bitter after being forced to leave Riverrun and go back to The Fingers (if that is truly where he went) and he made up his mind to mess with highborn people - to ruin the things they hold dear - for the rest of his life. Although he doesn't mind messing with some lower-born people, too, such as Jeyne Poole.

When he goes back to the Fingers with Sansa, he sarcastically says he looks forward to a breakfast of gull's eggs. (There is a lot of symbolism around eggs and what happens to them in ASOIAF.) When Jon Arryn was providing him with is first job, he was in charge of making a profit in Gulltown - and he was very good at it. I think the author is telling us that everyone around Petyr is gullible about what he is doing: making a profit while messing with their heirs, their lives, their finances. When he gets to King's Landing, he runs brothels. Further evidence that he is out to screw people.

Finding the parallel characters helps me to understand Baelish. I think we are supposed to compare him to The Kindly Man and to the Widow of the Waterfront.

The widow was low born, but she did her job well (as a slave), married well and now runs a shipping empire, lording it over the people who see her as socially inferior. She also had her tears cut off - tattoos that marked her as a slave. I think this symbolizes the kind of emotional hardening but also the social climbing that happened to Petyr after he lost his sword duel with Brandon Stark. Petyr Baelish and the last couple generations of his family have been climbing the social ladder. Petyr made the biggest leaps into high-born society, and has built a fortune and married well (if briefly). (There is also dragon hatching symbolism connected with both the Widow and Petyr, but that involves too much explanation for this comparison.)

We don't know anything about the Kindly Man's background, but he claims to have no motive other than to serve the God of Many Faces. (Note: Janus was the two-faced God in classical mythology. Might also allude to Janos Slynt.) His organization uses coins to identify insiders and, sometimes, uses poison coins as a way of killing assassination targets. Petyr claims to have no motive (or says other people assume he has no motive) in his maneuvers around King's Landing. He says he thrives on chaos. His title within the small council was Master of Coin. The Kindly Man is a mentor to Arya; Littlefinger is a mentor to Sansa. The Kindly Man teaches Arya how to cover her identity, to act, spy, lie and to kill. Littlefinger teaches Sansa to cover her identity (she becomes Alayne Stone) and to lie (she helps to cover up Lysa's death).

The Faceless Men refer to death as "The Gift." In the Puns and Wordplay thread, we have identified several examples of GRRM using German words to make puns. In German, "der Gift" means "Poison." The House of Black and White has a poison fountain where people come to drink. Littlefinger seems to have played a role in poisoning Jon Arryn and Joffrey Baratheon (at least).

The House of Black and White has a pair of doors, one of which is made of weirwood. Littlefinger pushes Lysa Arryn out of the weirwood moon door at the Eyrie.

Littlefinger borrowed tons of "coin" to keep the Baratheon kingdom afloat. Coins have heads (and tails). The Kindly Man borrows people's faces to disguise his band of assassins. There is a "bank" of faces which operatives can draw on for their work. Instead of being Littlefinger's partner in a big plan to invade Westeros, maybe the Iron Bank of Braavos is like the wall of faces at the House of Black and White. A bunch of gullible people who give up their lives to assist a twisted death cult that has rationalized its work as a religious obligation while actually charging high prices and enriching the participants.

Even though the Kindly Man says he has no real motive, his organization charges a high price for each assassination. The organization makes its assignments and plans in a sort of "Small Council," like the group Littlefiner was part of at King's Landing. I think the pursuit of profit (not of republicanism) is common to all three characters - the widow, the Kindly Man and the Master of Coin.

[oopeed]

On 22/5/2016 at 6:26 PM, thought_criminal22 said:

I have long chafed at the public perception of the realm’s most humble hero, Lord Petyr Baelish of Harrenhal, known by the vulgar title of ‘Littlefinger’ to the uneducated and uncouth.

 

          

You lost me here. I

 

On 27/5/2016 at 7:20 PM, Seams said:

 

"'It was Father's idea to do the tilts. He even trained the first pig, but by then he was too sick to ride her, so Oppo took his place. I always rode the dog. We performed for the Sealord of Braavos, and he laughed so hard that afterward he gave each of us a . . . a grand gift.'

'Is that where my sister found you? In Braavos?'

'Your sister?' The girl looked lost. 'Queen Cersei.' Penny shook her head. 'She never... It was a man who came to us in Pentos. Osmund. No, Oswald. Something like that. Oppo met with him, not me. Oppo made all of our arrangements. My brother always knew what to do, where we should go next.'"

I think the grand gifts Penny and Groat received in Braavos are dragon eggs. I had been thinking that she has them somewhere in Essos and will share them with Tyrion when the time is right. But what if word leaked out - some servant or family member or hanger-on in the House of the Sealord saw him drunkenly give away these two priceless eggs to a pair of performing dwarfs. Word reached Baelish, who knew that dragon power would be the best weapon he could use to advance his invasion force.

 

A bravosi having dragon eggs is one thing, but giving them away after it was known that a Targaryen girl managed to hatch three in the Dothraki Sea, that's just ridiculous... As Tycho Nestoris said, these braavosi people do not joke about dragons. I doubt they would simply let such thing out of their sight.

Also, It's been a while since I read Feast, but I'm pretty sure Littlefinger do not gives credit to the stories about dragons in Essos, the white walkers and pretty much anything magical out of his control... Now, LF is also a weasel with no dragonblood, so how would he control a dragon? He can't even fight, I doubt he can muster the courage to use a dragon horn either. If you can't  control this huge power, then it would be stupid to give it to someone who isn't you.

Also, it took what? Something close to two years for Drogon to become large enough to be ridden by a small woman, LF does not have that kind of time to figure out how to hatch an egg and then raise the beast to conquering size.

[M_Tootles]

On 6/4/2016 at 3:26 PM, Seams said:

I've been thinking about this, and I don't think the Republic motive fits with Littlefinger and his actions to date. I hope you don't mind if I lay out my counter argument here....

Finding the parallel characters helps me to understand Baelish. I think we are supposed to compare him to The Kindly Man and to the Widow of the Waterfront....

The Faceless Men refer to death as "The Gift." In the Puns and Wordplay thread, we have identified several examples of GRRM using German words to make puns. In German, "der Gift" means "Poison." The House of Black and White has a poison fountain where people come to drink. Littlefinger seems to have played a role in poisoning Jon Arryn and Joffrey Baratheon (at least).

The House of Black and White has a pair of doors, one of which is made of weirwood. Littlefinger pushes Lysa Arryn out of the weirwood moon door at the Eyrie.

Littlefinger borrowed tons of "coin" to keep the Baratheon kingdom afloat. Coins have heads (and tails). The Kindly Man borrows people's faces to disguise his band of assassins. There is a "bank" of faces which operatives can draw on for their work. Instead of being Littlefinger's partner in a big plan to invade Westeros, maybe the Iron Bank of Braavos is like the wall of faces at the House of Black and White. A bunch of gullible people who give up their lives to assist a twisted death cult that has rationalized its work as a religious obligation while actually charging high prices and enriching the participants.

This is such an awesome post. Gift/Poison. Wow.

I'll just add (and maybe you assumed everyone reading your post would realize this) that the Iron Bank and House of Black and White are at minimum closely related and very probably different faces of the same thing, and that Littlefinger borrowed said faced-coins from the Iron Bank.

 

[Seams]

5 hours ago, M_Tootles said:

This is such an awesome post. Gift/Poison. Wow.

I'll just add (and maybe you assumed everyone reading your post would realize this) that the Iron Bank and House of Black and White are at minimum closely related and very probably different faces of the same thing, and that Littlefinger borrowed said faced-coins from the Iron Bank.

I hadn't thought about the two institutions being closely related, but I like this idea a lot! They're not just similar in symbolic ways, but actually connected. Why not? Every coin has both a head and a tail, after all.

A strong connection between the Iron Bank and the House of Black and White might also help with some other connections I've been trying to figure out. I know that GRRM has promised that many diverse threads will start to converge in these last books. It's hard to guess how many connections will be made.

We already know one pair of strange bedfellows, so to speak: It appears that Petyr Baelish and Olenna Tyrell conspired to kill Joffrey Baratheon. (I think a number of people were all trying to kill him at the same time, so I'm not sure whether their plot succeeded or if someone else's method succeeded first.) I have a sneaking suspicion that Olenna and Old Nan, of all people, might be connected to the Faceless Men. And I'm also now thinking that the Widow of the Waterfront might be a better match as a parallel character for Lady Olenna or Old Nan instead of Baelish, as I proposed earlier on this thread. The daggers are the clue I'm trying to puzzle out - the Widow of the Waterfront has an ornate dagger covered with runes and the Valyrian steel dagger used in the attempt on Bran's life belonged to Littlefinger. Olenna, as Queen of Thorns, is associated through her nickname with Alliser Thorne, who is a master-at-arms and who apparently plays a role in the knife attack on Jon Snow. I can't quite draw the lines yet, but there's something going on with this motley crew of would-be kingslayers...

I also think that most prophecies and fortunes are true for more than one person, and that Littlefinger is the Valonqar for Catelyn. (Cersei and Catelyn are the two mother characters who started out as wives who lost their husbands, then became the mothers of kings. Then their sons were killed. Both helped to raise Sansa. Etc.)

It is no coincidence that Petyr's surname is a modified version of Bael (as in Bael the Bard). I think he will try to seduce and/or marry Sansa and maybe he will succeed in fathering a Stark heir.

Whether Littlefinger's anti-Catelyn and anti-Stark efforts are part of a larger Braavosi plot or just a sideline he is pursuing in his spare time is hard to say. A connection between the Iron Bank and the HoBaW might show that Olenna and Littlefinger didn't just discover each other by accident, but they have been Braavosi agents all along. If there is a Braavosi conspiracy, is it a plot to take over Westeros in general, or is this all about profit for the Bank and recovery of the debts owed by the Iron Throne?

All still very fuzzy, but you've got me thinking.

[Ser Joe of Generic Hall]

On the eve of 4th of July, I actually came up with a very similar theory myself. I knew I wouldn't be alone.  GRRM is so uber liberal, borderline communist at times, that I wouldn't put it past him to end the series with the establishment of a great Westerosi republic of the people.  However, I think he has a soft spot for monarchies because I get the impression that he admires the Windsor family and Queen Elizabeth II.  GRRM also admires the Scandinavian countries, which are a mixture of constitutional monarchies and republics.

As much as I believe GRRM would like Jon Snow to be Lenin, I believe he compromised and made him George Washington. Daenerys' whole storyline seems almost anti-monarchy in Essos, so would it be out of the question to dismantle Westerosi society as well? Jon Snow's life has been shit thanks to the rules of monarchy. I think he understands the glory of being a Stark, but it must all seem pretty absurd to him at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if he and Daenerys agree to dismantle the system in Westeros just like Daenerys did in Mereen. Littlefinger is  also a quintessential revolutionary; an upstart lordling with little upward mobility. He hates Highlords, thanks to Brandon Stark. The three of them together with Tyrion and a few more POVs and you have yourselves your founding fathers.

Although I don't think there will be a republic of Westeros, I believe there will be a kind of constitutional monarchy established where bastards and women can inherit, where lords are granted peerage based on ability as opposed to birth, where Dwarves are treated with respect, and even a world where magic, demons, and gods are understood instead of feared. If the intended ending is bittersweet, I think something along those lines would please all of GRRM's many audiences ... or as bittersweet as I imagine he'd be willing to end the story.

[M_Tootles]

3 hours ago, Seams said:

I hadn't thought about the two institutions being closely related, but I like this idea a lot! They're not just similar in symbolic ways, but actually connected. Why not? Every coin has both a head and a tail, after all.

They're physically connected. When Arya goes down in the vaults, that they O.G. Iron Bank vault.

 

3 hours ago, Seams said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that Olenna and Old Nan, of all people, might be connected to the Faceless Men. And I'm also now thinking that the Widow of the Waterfront might be a better match as a parallel character for Lady Olenna or Old Nan instead of Baelish, as I proposed earlier on this thread. The daggers are the clue I'm trying to puzzle out - the Widow of the Waterfront has an ornate dagger covered with runes and the Valyrian steel dagger used in the attempt on Bran's life belonged to Littlefinger. Olenna, as Queen of Thorns, is associated through her nickname with Alliser Thorne, who is a master-at-arms and who apparently plays a role in the knife attack on Jon Snow. I can't quite draw the lines yet, but there's something going on with this motley crew of would-be kingslayers...

My head cannon and posted theories posit Olenna as having been heavily involved with Maegor Brightflame when he was in the Kingsguard, where Aegon put him to ensure he couldn't have kids that could threaten his own line (since Aerion was before Egg). She got pregnant and had kids, and I'm fairly sure they were twins: Vaerys and Saerra, aka Varys and Serra. She gave them up to keep them safe from Aegon, who may have eventually found them and had Vaerys's balls off, as part of the Summerhall experiments and/or to ensure he couldn't procreate or be taken seriously as a threat to his line. But yeah: she was a could've been queen twice over, and "Queen of Thorns" just got a little juicier.

Read about it HERE, but you should probably start with part 1 if you have some time on your hands, HERE.

I love the parallels you're drawing. I have a ton of stuff re: the Faceless Men's activities on Westeros, HERE and in a roundabout way HERE (which stems from an essay about Ironborn feet, of all things, HERE). Never thought about Olenna and Old Nan being connected.

 

3 hours ago, Seams said:

I also think that most prophecies and fortunes are true for more than one person, and that Littlefinger is the Valonqar for Catelyn. (Cersei and Catelyn are the two mother characters who started out as wives who lost their husbands, then became the mothers of kings. Then their sons were killed. Both helped to raise Sansa. Etc.)

Agree with the first statement (see especially Azor Ahai), but I'm not sure why the Valonqar, which was directed at one person very definitely, unlike many prophecies, would be included. That's not to discount that their paths may parallel one another very intentionally.

3 hours ago, Seams said:

It is no coincidence that Petyr's surname is a modified version of Bael (as in Bael the Bard). I think he will try to seduce and/or marry Sansa and maybe he will succeed in fathering a Stark heir.

I cannot fucking believe I never noticed that. smh.

3 hours ago, Seams said:

Whether Littlefinger's anti-Catelyn and anti-Stark efforts are part of a larger Braavosi plot or just a sideline he is pursuing in his spare time is hard to say. A connection between the Iron Bank and the HoBaW might show that Olenna and Littlefinger didn't just discover each other by accident, but they have been Braavosi agents all along. If there is a Braavosi conspiracy, is it a plot to take over Westeros in general, or is this all about profit for the Bank and recovery of the debts owed by the Iron Throne?

All still very fuzzy, but you've got me thinking.

Given Olenna's origins as a Redwyne, likely relationship to Varys and Serra, and the Redwyne clothes found in Illyrio's house, I figure she's a Blackfyre-Brightflame supporter.

[Dya of Oldstones]

I'm thinking LF would attempt an oligarchy before even considering a republic.

@Seams

Also, just to add to his connection to the Bael the Bard story, I think that was already fulfilled with R+L=J for those of us who subscribe to it. Rhaegar actually played a harp as well as abducting Lyanna with Jon as the result. Some think it may indicate that Jon will be the new Stark in Winterfell, but I'm not gonna go too far on that one since it's OT for this thread. LF is Baelish, and last I checked he has no musical talents or aspirations and even told Sansa that life isn't a song...I suspect he may be the anti-Bael, or at least a counterfeit version. There's also Marillion, but that's another topic that would take more hammering out. I agree with you he may try to seduce/marry Sansa.

Not sure where I land on the theory about Olenna, but the Tyrells withholding food from King's Landing resulting in the food riots, then giving it away reminds me of another ploy he's pulling in the Alayne chapter.

Spoiler

The part where Alayne finds him talking with the lords of the Vale about withholding food and grain in order to inflate prices of food for the upcoming winter.

I don't have my books with me but not sure how much that's the Tyrells in general or Olenna in particular. Since she's also a Redwyne, I'll have to do more digging around on them.

[Knight Of Winter]

Well thought and put out, but there are simply a number of big holes which make me disagree with your theory

1) As John Doe said, republic won't work in Westeros. European republics only developed after centuries of feudalism, thanks to several important factors: invention of printing press, age of enlightenment, commune and city tradition and its importance in e.g. Italy and Netherlands, industrial revolution which caused (among other things) huge population boom that impacted cities' size etc. Westeros, meanwhile, hasn't even started in any of these.

2) So you have your hypotheses that LF wants power and also revenge on upper echelon. So far so good. But the conclusion that he wants to change entire social system to achieve that doesn't hold water. What he wants to achieve (power for himself and revenge on nobles) he can already do inside existing political system. In fact, that's exactly what he's doing. He's the Lord of Riverlands and de facto ruler of the Vale (power for himself), while all of the nobles who have wronged him are dead or in dire position (Hoster, Brandon, Ned, Edmure, Jon Arryn). He didn't need to establish republic to achieve that.

3) LF didn't ever do anything remotely altruistic, at least not during the course of the books. He only ever does actions that profit him and his cause, while not giving a damn about anyone else. So why would he change entire social and political system for the belief that this new system is the best? LF doesn't care about ideology - he cares about himself only. In fact, let me repeat again that all of his supposed goals (revenge on nobility and amassing power for himself) can be achieved in current political system.

4) Much related to the issue above - bringing new political system implies o good dose of idealism, a desire to better the world for everyone. On the contrary, everything we've seen of LF's character so far tells us that he doesn't care of anyone else other than himself. He only manipulates others, uses them as tools, and discards them when they're no longer useful to him.

• he uses Ned to start and escalate Stark-Lannister tensions. When Ned proves that he's no longer useful (he rejects LF's offer to instill Renly on the throne), LF betrays him
• he uses Joffrey to kill Ned and irreparably damange Stark's relations with the IT (and further create chaos)
• he uses Dontos to communicate with Sansa and smuggle her out of KL. When that task is done, so is Dontos.
• he uses Tyrells to kill Joffrey. Later he sabotages their plan to wed Sansa to Wylas.
• he uses Lysa to kill Jon Arryn and advance his career. He offs her when she proves too unstable.
• he uses Sansa to satisfy his desire to have an imaginary daughter with Cat; and to satisfy his perverse lust for her. Other than that, he doesn't give a rat's ass about Sansa's happiness and well-being (if he did, he wouldn't destroy her family or implicate her in king's murder, to start)

5) Neither Braavos not the Iron Bank are militaristic powers. Perhaps the most powerful of the 9 Free Cities hasn't, in it's hundreds year long existence, conquered anything - not even Pentos or Lorath. Worst they did was impose a peace treaty on Pentos which forbids them slavery. And your theory relies on the fact that they would want to conquer an entire continent? Not gonna happen.

6) And even if Braavosi did wish to conquer Westeros, it's ridiculously obvious that they can't. Compare sizes and population of Braavos and Westeros and it's clear why. Iron Bank could beggar themselves hiring mercenaries and that still wouldn't be nearly enough to subdue Westeros.

[Michael Mertyns]

One thing to remember is that the Iron Bank is not a government institution of Braavos. IIRC, the IB exercises a fair amount of influence in the Braavosi government, but the interests of Braavos don't all have to be those of the IB.

The default of a government on its loans is a complicated thing. The default would not necessarily give the IB possession of the IT. The IB's support of Stannis, if he is successful, gives them someone with an actual claim to the throne who can resume repayments.

[The Sleeper]

LF gets off on power, proving he is the cleverest guy around, sticking to girl that rejected him in his youth by proxy and keeping his head on his shoulders.

That's it.

[The Dew]

On 5/23/2016 at 0:26 AM, thought_criminal22 said:

After several years of lurking on the forums, I believe I have something to contribute...

The Republic of Littlefinger Theory

 

 

 

I have long chafed at the public perception of the realm’s most humble hero, Lord Petyr Baelish of Harrenhal, known by the vulgar title of ‘Littlefinger’ to the uneducated and uncouth.

 

            Too many have ascribed to him the typical fantasy trope of the mustache-twirling villain scheming purely out of greed and ambition, one whose only desire is to watch the world collapse in chaos around him while he cleans up. Our author does not follow typical tropes, and Littlefinger is far too interesting a character to have a vague, simplistic goal. I am here to present an alternative for your approval.

 

I will argue that Lord Baelish’s goal is to install a republican form of government in Westeros.

 

PART 1: DEFINING MOTIVATION, MEANS, & GOAL

 

In preparing this argument, I have come across a common problem in the various discussions of Lord Baelish. This is a problem with confusion of motivation, means, and goal. So far, I have yet to find a well-articulated theory that unequivocally posits Petyr Baelish’s goal. There are many theories that establish revenge, greed, or ambition as driving forces in Petyr’s actions. And there are plenty of arguments that convincingly outline Petyr’s role in starting the War of the Five Kings.

 

But vengeance, greed, and ambition are not goals. These are motivations that drive action. And beginning the War of the Five Kings is not a goal, either. The war and the chaos it brings achieves nothing in and of itself, and must be a means to some end.

 

I will be clear and concise.

 

A.    Lord Baelish’s MOTIVATION is vengeance against the existing power structures of Westeros, particularly the hierarchies of landed nobility, which hurt and inhibited him in his childhood.

 

B.    His MEANS of vengeance is to indebt the realm to the Iron Bank of Braavos and ensure default on the debt, thereby giving the Iron Bank a casus belli and claim on the Iron Throne.

 

C.    His GOAL is to incite a Braavosi invasion of Westeros that will result in a reorganization of Westerosi feudal society based on Braavosi republicanism (With Baelish as their installed representative overseeing the process as Lord Protector.)

 

PART 2: ESTABLISHING MOTIVE

 

Readers of A Song of Ice and Fire are at a disadvantage when it comes to understanding Lord Baelish’s motives. George R.R. Martin has yet to release a POV chapter from his perspective. In the moments when Petyr does explain himself, the reader must ask if they can trust the explanations he is giving. Lord Baelish is one of the top five players in the game of thrones, and specializes in confusing potential adversaries. Even Lord Varys, in a moment of candor with his closest associate, admits he is flummoxed by Petyr’s actions. So any theories concerning Petyr Baelish require flexibility as far as evidence is concerned.

 

But Lord Baelish’s motivation is not impenetrable. First we must ask a few basic questions.

 

A: Is Petyr Baelish greedy? That is, is he in this game for accruing wealth? I do not believe so. Petyr Baelish is a man of simple tastes. He isn’t a drunkard. He does not dress in too much finery. He owns a brothel but we never see him partake in whoring. If he only wanted to accrue wealth, he couldn’t do much better than becoming Master of Coin and embezzling away the crown’s finances, which he appeared to have been doing for years. Why is he abandoning this office in order to pursue more dangerous goals such as the Sansa/Alayne Gambit?

 

B: Is Petyr Baelish power-hungry? That is, is he in this game simply to gain power? Again, I do not believe so. If he wanted to gain more power, he would not have left King’s Landing, the seat of power. By leaving King’s Landing, he gives up his ability to influence the Small Council, the King, and the King’s Hand, he gives up being present for the most important decisions in the realm, and he essentially surrenders initiative to Varys or any other potential adversary.

 

Further, by refusing to take his position in Harrenhal, Lord Baelish is setting aside real legal power in order to play a dangerous game tip-toeing around the Lords Declarant in the Vale. It appears that Petyr’s power grabs are not for their own sake, but in pursuit of a particular goal (Which, it is fair to say, could be more power. This theory does not discount this possibility, it only downplays any power ambition in favor of another motivation.)

 

C: Is Petyr Baelish vengeful? Yes. Lord Baelish remembers hurts and seeks revenge. In the regicide of Mad King Joffrey, Petyr Baelish could have easily set up Ser Dontos Hollard as his patsy. Ser Dontos had ample motive and opportunity and came from a traitor house, it would have been easy to frame him. Instead, Lord Baelish goes out of his way to ensure Tyrion Lannister is charged with the King’s murder. Why? Because Tyrion embarrassed Petyr by including him in the machinations of the Myrcella Marriage Gambit (You might say it was to ensure Sansa’s widowhood, but a coerced and unconsummated marriage is easily set aside. Tyrion’s life is inconsequential to Sansa’s marital status.)

 

Further, Petyr has a habit of killing those who threaten Sansa: King Joffrey (who beat and humiliated her,) Lady Lysa (attempted murder,) and Marillion (attempted rape.) I believe that Petyr cares deeply for Sansa, and is driven to passionate vengeance against whoever hurts her.

 

The assassination of King Joffrey and the murder of Lady Lysa add unnecessary risk to Peytr’s plans. It’s one thing to ask co-conspirators to help you rescue a maiden held against her will as hostage to a brutal king, it is quite another to ask them to help you murder the King, especially if you “have no motive” as Petyr claims (any attempt to justify the assassination of Joffrey as a way to generate chaos falters at the gate. Joffrey was a force for chaos. If anything, killing Joffrey stabilized the realm.)

 

The murder of Lady Lysa comes off especially passionate. Petyr murders his wife in front of two witnesses, one he has no reason to believe will cooperate with a cover-up (Marillion) and another who has proved herself incompetent at the game of thrones (Sansa/Alayne.) This was not a well-planned assassination, this was an act of unrestrained retribution for Lysa’s violence against Sansa. Petyr was lucky Sansa took to the role of Alayne Stone and that he could coerce Marillion into cooperation through torture (other theories about Marillion’s motives notwithstanding.)

 

We have seen Petyr favor vengeance over power ambition because of the unnecessary risks he’s taken pursuing it. So if vengeance is his primary motivation, who is he taking vengeance against with his overall plan? It cannot be the late Brandon Stark, who wounded Lord Baelish in a duel and took his lady love. Nor does it appear to be Hoster Tully, who forbade Petyr from marrying his daughter and then exiled him to the Fingers after the pregnancy of Lady Lysa.

 

What about Ned, is Petyr driven to jealous rage by Catelyn’s love for the Lord of the North? Surely he is; but Petyr’s offer to work with Ned just before the failed coup seems like a genuine one. And if he wanted Ned dead, he could have justifiably killed him during the coup, instead of ensuring his safe capture.

 

But I believe Petyr can see that individuals are not who hurt him. Cat did not choose Brandon or Ned, they were chosen for her by Hoster. And Hoster couldn’t marry Cat to Petyr, it would have hurt the standing of his house. Ned Stark had no more choice in the matter than Cat did. It wasn’t Brandon’s blade that hurt Lord Baelish, it was the system of feudal hierarchy that killed his chances of marrying his one true love. It is not people he’s plotting against, but the entire power structure of Westeros he hopes to bring down.

 

EVIDENCE

 

A: Petyr’s Association with the Middle-Class of Westeros

 

If Lord Baelish were plotting against the upper echelon of Westerosi nobility, you would expect him to have few or no allies within that class of people. Rather, you would expect him to conspire with people who would benefit from his end goal. And Petyr surrounds himself with middle-class people of high talent, the people who would stand to benefit most from a republican form of government and the fall of the established feudal hierarchy.

 

One such talented middle-class person is Ser Lothor Brune, and through analysis of his character one may guess at a higher purpose in Petyr’s plotting. Ser Lothor is, by all appearances, absolutely loyal to Lord Baelish. And Lord Baelish, by all appearances, absolutely trusts Lothor Brune. Lothor knows Alayne Stone’s true identity, as well as the crime she’s accused of. This doesn’t appear to bother Lord Baelish, who once cautioned Ned Stark against this kind of trust, and he allays Sansa’s fears concerning Ser Lothor by assuring her that Oswell (another apparently loyal middle-class associate of Petyr’s) is watching him, and Ser Lothor is watching Oswell (which may very well be true.)

 

The audience doesn’t know what Lord Baelish has offered Ser Lothor in exchange for his service, but it cannot be wealth or titles. Queen Cersei will match any offer Petyr made. If Ser Lothor handed Sansa over to the crown, he would have his rewards sooner without needing to rely on Petyr’s serpentine plots. Whatever Lord Baelish is planning, Brune BELIEVES in it. Further, the Brunes are one of the old families out of Crackclaw Point, and we know from Nimble Dick’s ramblings that Crackclaw folk have an independent streak. A republican form of government would be appealing to this culture.

 

In Tyrion IV ACoK, Tyrion notes Lord Baelish has placed his own people in many key positions in the bureaucracy. These positions include: the King’s Counter, the King’s Scales, all four Keepers of the Keys, all the mint managers, and 90% of the harbormasters, tax farmers, customs agents, wool factors, toll collectors, pursers, and wine factors of the Crownlands. Tyion notes that these men are mostly made up of people from the Westerosi middle-class and foreigners, all of them with superior talent to the highborns they’d replaced.

 

B: Petyr’s Braavosi Connections

 

This theory requires Petyr to have a well-funded military ally to enforce his end goal, in this case the Free City of Braavos.

 

While the origins of Petyr’s foreign officers in Tyrion IV ACoK is not explicitly delineated, it is not out of the question for them to be largely Braavosi (an influx of Braavosi in King’s Landing would also help justify the presence of Syrio Forell, whose residency in the capital remains unexplained.) This is purely speculation, but speculation informed by several connections Lord Baelish has with the Secret City.

 

Petyr himself comes from Braavosi stock through his great grandfather, a sellsword in the service of the Corbrays. Petyr may have family contacts in Braavos, and perhaps his Braavosi heritage makes him more appealing to contacts in the Iron Bank or other guilds within the Secret City. If Petyr’s plan involves Braavosi cooperation, he has advantages toward acquiring friends there.

 

Further evidence of a Braavosi connection can be found in the behavior of the Merling King. Following the Regicide of Mad King Joffrey, Lord Baelish takes Sansa aboard the Merling King (Sansa VI ASoS.) Not only is the King a Braavosi trading galley, but her first destination following the death of the King is the Free City of Braavos, with a difficult and dangerous side-trip to the Fingers to drop off Lord Baelish at his boyhood home. This side-trip, by the way, costs the ship several crewmembers with no chance to offload or take on any cargo. The captain risked all in order to deliver Petyr to the Fingers. Is this because Petyr paid him or because the captain is working with Petyr towards his ultimate goal? If Petyr is merely paying the captain, the same problem as the Lothor Brune situation arises. It is much more likely the captain of Merling King is on board with Petyr’s plans.

 

After dropping off Petyr, the King departs for Braavos. I believe this is to inform Lord Baelish’s co-conspirators in Braavos of the death of the King so they can prepare the next phase of the operation on their end, whatever that may be. In Alayne II AFfC, Oswell Kettleblack returns to the Eyrie from Gulltown, and he comes with news from the Merling King. I believe this to be correspondence from Lord Baelish’s people in Braavos, though I would not hazard a guess as to the content of the news. Remember, it was Oswell who went to Braavos to hire dwarf entertainers for the Purple Wedding, evidence that Petyr often sends people to correspond with Braavos.

 

C: Petyr’s Hostility against the Upper Echelon

 

A third factor we would expect to see if this theory were true would be hostility from Lord Baelish toward highborns. Gathering evidence for this is tricky, as all the chapters dealing with Petyr come from the POV of said highborns, and Lord Baelish is a master at hiding his intentions from his adversaries. Therefore, the evidence for Lord Baelish’s hostility to highborns is tangential and indirect at best, so I will be brief (Note: I understand that Petyr Baelish is technically ‘highborn’ because of his minor noble status, I use the word in this context to denote the oldest and most powerful families of Westeros, the ones who would lose the most in a Republican system. I prefer the term ‘middle class’ to describe Petyr’s place in Westerosi society.)

 

The clearest picture of Lord Baelish’s hostile attitude toward highborns comes from his relationship with Lord Eddard Stark. Nearly every interaction between the two men results in a hidden or half-hidden insult from Petyr to Ned. He smiles through his teeth and plays with Ned, up until the moment when he puts a dagger at the Lord’s throat. However, this antagonism might be from jealousy, considering Ned is married to the object of Petyr’s affection.

 

In Sansa VI ASoS, Petyr makes an offhand comment concerning the character of Queen Regent Cersei: “Her strength rests on her beauty, her birth, and riches. Only the first of those is truly her own, and it will soon desert her.” Of the three items in this list, only riches are something a person can control. One does not choose to be beautiful or highborn. Petyr grants Cersei her beauty, but denies her birth. In this way, he explains that high birth is not an intrinsic value belonging to a person, but a value held up by societal structures.    

 

Petyr’s attitude toward Sansa can be confusing. He clearly cares for her, and whether the source of that caring is a creepy physical attraction, a creepier projection of Catelyn upon her daughter, or something else, it is important to answer one question regarding their relationship: why doesn’t Petyr reveal the entirety of his plan to Sansa? She clearly has nowhere else to go, and she appears to be grateful for Petyr’s work in removing her from King’s Landing. She even cooperates with the lies surrounding the murder of her aunt. But despite this, Petyr only gives her limited information.

 

The problem is that Sansa is still the enemy in Petyr’s plans. Sansa comes from an upper echelon family, an old and powerful house that stands to lose much in his world. It is doubtful that someone born as noble as Sansa could comprehend what a republic is. Republicanism and the egalitarianism it would bring are radical departures from the established order of their society.

 

As such, Sansa Stark will always be a potential enemy to Lord Baelish. But Alayne Stone, she is sure to be a steadfast ally. There is a theory in psychology that acting a part tends to turn a person’s inner character towards that part. It’s the reason David Chapell stepped away from his comedy, and some believe that George Carlin’s comedic style of bitter ranting turned him into a bitter man over the course of his career. In A Song of Ice and Fire, Arya does it to herself in order to survive, becoming Arry, Nan, Weasel, Salty, and no-one as needed. Wargs are warned that staying too long in their beasts will turn them bestial when they come back to their own skins (Prologue ADwD.)

 

As Alayne, she manages a household, serves Sweetrobin, deals with the smallfolk, and is treated the way a bastard daughter of a minor nobleman would be treated. Petyr gave Alayne a Braavosi background as the granddaughter of a merchant prince (Tying into the Braavos connections.) This takes Sansa from the upper echelon of society down to the lower middle-class.

 

Lord Baelish is shaping Alayne into a woman who will support his middle-class agenda. He needs Sansa to be Alayne so that she wants what Petyr wants. Is there any evidence of this? Yes. We would expect Petyr to increase his trust in Sansa as she increased in her role as Alayne. And Lord Baelish tells Alayne of the Harold Hardyng Gambit only once she has played the part for some time, such that her chapter titles have changed to reflect the change occurring in her character (Alayne II AFfC.) This is a violent attack against nobility, taking one of the most highborn women in Westeros and essentially turning her lowborn.

 

PART 3: ESTABLISHING MEANS

 

With Lord Baelish’s motivation established, let us move to the means by which he seeks his goals.

 

A: The Iron Bank & Braavos

 

Braavos was formed from the escaped slaves of Old Valyria. Often called the secret city, it existed for a hundred years hidden in the mists of its harbor before unmasking itself to the world and rising to become the most powerful of all the Free Cities (much like Lord Baelish shall do at the appointed time.) Most important for this argument, Braavos is a republic.

 

Though we do not yet fully understand the politics of Braavos, we do know it is a republic that elects its leader. Republics, generally, offer a way for those as capable as Petyr Baelish to bloodlessly rise in power, regardless of who they were born to. But whatever the internal mechanics of Braavosi republicanism, it is doubtless the Iron Bank of Braavos that remains the most important institution in the city.

 

For five books now, the Iron Bank has been a loaded Chekhov’s Gun. We are told repeatedly that the Iron Bank will have its due, that they’re not to be dismissed lightly, that Westeros is three million golden dragons in debt to them, and that Queen Regent Cersei has been treating the debt collectors with contempt. Further, when Arya first enters Braavos, the audience gets a glimpse of Braavosi military might, including the Arsenal of Braavos, a complex capable of building an entire warship in a single day. It is my belief that Lord Baelish intends to turn this military might against the Iron Throne.

 

But what could motivate Braavos to invade Westeros? In Dance, we hear from Illyrio Mopatis: “Slavery is forbidden in Pentos, by the terms of the treaty the Braavosi imposed on us a hundred years ago.” (ADwD Tyrion I) In the context of their conversation, it is a slimy excuse to explain how Illyrio, a man who is clearly a slaveholder, is not a slaveholder. But in the wider context of worldbuilding, this line establishes that Braavos is a country willing to go to war to impose its societal values on other sovereign states.

 

Historically speaking, there is a marginal difference between slave societies like you find in Slaver’s Bay and societies of feudalism such as Westeros. There are no chains, no overseers, and no flesh markets in King’s Landing, but these are only the visible hallmarks of chattel slavery. Peasants in feudal societies are tied to the land, and lands belong to lords. When a Westerosi lord makes mention of “my smallfolk,” the possessive sense is meant to be taken literally.

 

A lord expects peasants to work his land and hand over the vast majority of the fruits without complaint. Anything outside of total cooperation is viewed as rebellion and crushed by knights in the lord’s service. At any time, a lord may decide to raise a levy within his territory and force able-bodied men to fight for him. Refusing to join the levy is rebellion and punishable by death. The freedom of smallfolk (called villeins or serfs historically) is entirely curtailed. They are unable to leave a lord’s lands without their lord’s consent.

 

This is a step above slavery, but a freer society like Braavos will still look down at the practices of the Westerosi highborns. And, if there is enough potential profit from it, could use this as a casus belli for war against the Seven Kingdoms. The potential profit may come from increased access to Westerosi timber resources, a commodity Samwell Tarley notes is particularly rare in Braavos (This type of resource war would mirror 20^th century wars waged for increased access to oil.)

 

B: The Crown Debt

 

A second, and more legal, casus belli for the Braavosi invasion will come from a default of Westerosi crown debt to the Iron Bank. This debt was built primarily by Lord Baelish, and he put in safeguards to ensure it would never be paid.

 

In Eddard IV AGoT, Ned Stark learns that the Crown is over six million golden dragons in debt, and half of that debt belongs to the Iron Bank. The other sizable portions of the debt are owed to the Faith of Seven and the Lannisters. This debt is difficult to explain. There has been no war since the Greyjoy Rebellion, and King Robert’s tourneys and feasts are insufficient to explain the massive debt. A likely explanation is that Petyr has been finding ways to drive up debt by increasing expenditures within the city, while simultaneously increasing the incomes to justify his position as Master of Coin.

 

We find some evidence for this in Jaime I AFfC, when Chief Undergaoler Rennifer Longwaters explains to Jaime the hierarchy of the Black Cells and dungeons of the Red Keep. There is a massive disparity between the number of prisoners held in the dungeons and the numbers of gaolers hired to watch them. The best explanation for this is Petyr Baelish placing his people in every nook and cranny he could fit them, using borrowed crown money to secure their positions for the coming Republican Revolution.

 

A default on the debt would grant the Iron Bank the legal right to seek recompense from the defaulting party. In this case, the crown itself would be used as collateral for the debt. The merchant princes of Braavos would rouse themselves for war through the prospect of freeing the people of Westeros from the tyranny of feudalism (Opening up the lucrative markets of Westeros notwithstanding.) Between the Iron Bank and the Braavosi Navy, there is plenty of men, material, and ships to support a Westerosi Republican Revolution.

 

A potential problem with the theory is the Iron Bank’s decision to lend money to King Stannis’ cause. Why would they do this if they were planning on financing the Republican Revolution? A possible explanation is that it allows the Iron Bank to justify the presence of mercenary companies in Westeros prior to Braavosi intervention. By this I mean that the sellswords in Stannis’ pay are ultimately loyal to whoever pays them, and Stannis is essentially a middleman for money flowing from the Iron Bank to the sellswords.

 

At the outset of the Republican Revolution, these mercenary companies would be in a position to turn cloak, destroy the last of the Baratheons, and wage a Northern Campaign to secure Winterfell for the Republicans. When the Northern Lords see Sansa by the side of the Republican leaders, they may support the Republican cause. Besides, the independent streak found in the Northmen is likely to slant Republican anyways, especially among the Northern Mountain Clans.

 

C: The War Plan

 

Lord Baelish needs to participate in an orgy of violence in order to become the Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Protector of the Vale. He murders Lord Arryn, betrays Lord Stark, incites bloody riots, fights at the Blackwater, attempts to kill Tyrion Lannister on at least one occasion, and finally murders Lady Lysa Tully. This violence is necessary in order to effect change because it’s the way Westerosi government works. The maintenance and modification of the status quo is done through force of arms.

 

Appreciable differences in the shape of Westerosi society have, by and large, come through catastrophic warfare. The Seven Kingdoms became one through the violence of dragonfire. The Targaryen dynasty fell through the violence of the Rebellion. And anyone attempting to alter the status quo has required armies to do so. In the past century, Westeros has experienced at least eight such conflicts (Five Blackfyre Rebellions, Robert’s Rebellion, Greyjoy Rebellion, War of the Five Kings) with a ninth on the way (Invasion of Aegon VI.)

 

We have yet to hear of any such internal warfare in the Free City of Braavos, however. This is because republics uniquely offer a chance for bloodless coups at appointed times. It is much easier and much safer for someone to win an election than it is to win a rebellion, and this is the advantage republicanism brings to the table.

 

But to get there, it will require a forceful overthrow of the status quo, just as has occurred for centuries in Westeros. And Braavos, while mighty among the Free Cities, is not powerful enough to wage the war on its own. So Petyr must do two things: 1) Find allies among the Westerosi and 2) Weaken the integrity of the Iron Throne’s military power.

 

Preston Jacobs, a widely known YouTube commentator for the A Song of Ice and Fire books, has a multi-part video series detailing the Littlefinger Debt Scheme. While I do not subscribe to the entirety of the theory, there are several aspects of his analysis I would like to use here.

 

Firstly, Jacobs deftly identifies the size and scope of Lord Baelish’s role in indebting the major houses of the realm. Among the most prominent of these debtors is Lord Randyl Tarly of Horn Hill. If Jacobs is correct in assessing that Randyl is in trouble with the Iron Bank, it would mean that arguably the best pure military leader in Westeros could fight against the Iron Throne in exchange for debt forgiveness.

 

Some might wonder if Tarly would turn cloak against the Tyrells and the crown, but Tarly’s loyalty could be stretched thin if presented evidence that King Tommen was a bastard born of incest and the Tyrells continued to support his claim. Granted, Tarly does not seem to possess any sort of republican character. But in the absence of a king with a good claim, he would likely revert to fighting for his own self-interest (Stannis’ claim notwithstanding.) His presence in Maidenpool, across the Bay of Crabs from the Vale, gives Petyr opportunity to prove Tommen’s illegitimacy (With Mya Stone and the Baratheon family tapestries provided by Cersei.)

 

Secondly, Jacobs identified a number of Vale houses who are actively cooperating with Petyr Baelish. This cooperation is measured by the attendance of Lord Lyonel Corbray’s wedding to a Gulltown merchant’s daughter, a wedding brokered by Lord Baelish (Noteworthy for investing a powerful Vale house into a middle-class family.) This wedding is attended by the heads of House Belmore and House Lynderly, and together with House Corbray form a daisy chain of castles cooperating with Lord Baelish along a major river of the Vale, which Martin has yet to name. From here on I shall refer to this river as the Strongheart River (After the castles Strongsong and Heart’s Home.) 

 

The Strongheart River cuts deep into the Vale until it nearly reaches the border of the Riverlands. If this map from the Lands of Ice and Fire map set is accurate, there is no high mountain range preventing passage from the source of this river into the heart of Westeros. Note also that the mouth of this river is just due West of Braavos. Using the Strongheart River, the Braavosi Navy could ship men, material, and supplies for an invasion directly into central Westeros, where they could easily march to either Riverrun or Harrenhal to set up a forward base of operations and begin their war from a fortified location (Potentially leading to Petyr taking vengeance against the Freys for the murder of Catelyn, or an interaction between Petyr and Lady Stoneheart.)

 

I’ve already made mention of the men Lord Baelish installed in the Crownlands during his time as Master of Coin (Tyrion IV ACoK.) During Petyr’s absence, it is possible that a few of these people will be replaced. But Tyrion notes that Baelish’s men are more capable than the highborns that came before them. And so long as the crown treasury benefits from their presence there is little reason to believe a majority of them will be removed. During Lord Baelish’s Republican Revolution, these men are in a perfect place to A) Shut down roads, harbors, and lines of communication in the Crownlands, causing confusion among loyalist forces, Secure supplies for the republicans while denying them to the loyalists, and C) establish a stable transitional government once King’s Landing is secure.

 

 With these potential allies in place, how does Petyr weaken the integrity of the Iron Throne’s military power? He already has. It is a well-accepted axiom of the ASoIaF community that it was Petyr Baelish who started the War of the Five Kings (It is known.) By the end of the War, houses Stark, Baratheon, Tully, and Arryn are in shambles. The Greyjoys remain in open rebellion despite the death of their king. The only great houses remaining to defend the crown are houses Lannister, Tyrell, and Martell. And a single offhand comment from Lord Baelish may betray his part in ensuring the destruction of that troika as well.

 

In Alayne II AFfC, Petyr remarks that what little peace the five kings left the realm will not long survive the three queens. Much ink has been spilt debating over the identities of these queens, so I will be brief. I believe he is speaking of Queen Regent Cersei, Queen Margery, and Princess Myrcella. These three would be the figureheads in a three-way civil war between the standing great houses of Westeros: Cersei for Lannister, Margery for Tyrell, and Myrcella for Martell.

 

While Cersei and Margery are obvious candidates for this list, Myrcella’s role is not as simple. How would Petyr know about the plot to raise Myrcella as a figurehead for Dornish rebellion? If we take a clue from the Merling King’s cargo at face value (Sansa V ASoS,) it appears that Petyr just arrived in Blackwater Bay from Dorne. The King is holding oranges and pomegranates, fruits that do not keep for months at a time and are grown in warmer climes such as Lys, Tyrosh, and Dorne. I do not believe Petyr would cross the Narrow Sea so close to the Purple Wedding. He would want to remain in Westeros so he could keep apprised of the situation in King’s Landing.

 

So what was he doing in Dorne? I wouldn’t hazard a guess. But the Dornishmen are independent by nature, and cannot be measured by the other Westerosi kingdoms. They are an independence-minded nation, who tolerate female inheritance and non-cis sexualities. It is possible he has allies in Dorne willing to participate in the Republican Revolution who would have knowledge of the plot to raise a rebellion in Myrcella’s name.

 

If this is the case, then Petyr has a plan for weakening the remaining three great houses of Westeros. The Reach would likely suffer the brunt of the casualties, being stuck between Dorne, the Westerlands, and the invading Ironmen. The Westerlands have already spent much of their strength in their wars against Stannis and the Young Wolf. And Dorne is the weakest of the Seven Kingdoms by Prince Doran’s own admission.

 

I believe that once this period of civil war starts winding down, that is when Petyr will initiate the Republican Revolution.

 

PART 4: Establishing Goals

 

 I believe Lord Baelish is working toward 4 primary goals.

 

A: Destroy the Existing Power Structure of Westeros

 

This is in retribution for the hurts done to him and the limits placed on him by the system.

 

B: Establish a new Republican Order in Westeros

 

This allows him to rise as high as his talent will allow him to.

 

C: Become Equivalent to the Hand of the President

 

Petyr knows he is the most talented schemer in Westeros, and wants to have the power of the Hand of the King. I do not believe he wishes to be the visible scion of power, and he may in fact limit the powers of the president/lord protector/prime minister in order to appear like he is establishing a freer form of government.

 

D: Create a Place for Alayne Stone

 

There is some end he has in mind for Sansa, as either his daughter so he can live like he and Catelyn ended up together, or as his wife so he can live as though he and Catelyn ended up together.

 

excellent, looking forward to more!

[LordImp]

I once had a Braavosi conspiracy theory , but it didnt get any attention . Though good OP.