How is Littlefinger able to hide his plans from Varys?

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The thing is LF really can't have that carefully of laid plans, only a general idea.  For example when he had Lysa kill Jon Aryn I'm sure he had the basic idea that by starting a war between the Lannisters, Starks, and Baratheons plenty of lordships would be up for grabs and if he got rewarded with a good enough 1 he could marry Lysa and take over the Vale that way.

However getting any more specific than that means being omniscient, it would mean predicting Robbs move at the Twins, Renlys death by shadow baby, Catlyns chance encounter with Tyrion, etc etc.

LF seemingly offers to throw in with Ned, and I bet Sansa is the reason.  He then offers to Marry Sansa later when Cersei is in power, and basically my point is he seems to abandon his plan of marrying Lysa entirely opting for a new plan, probably of being lord of WF through Sansa.  When that doesn't work he go's back to the Lysa plan and keeps Sansa in his back pocket.

It really seems like he doesn't have 1 set master plan, but makes certain plans and reacts quickly to most other events.

good points,  Maybe what Littlefinger has is an overall long term master plan and within that plan he has multiple short term plans that he can discard and change as circumstances warrant .  His quotes to Sansa give us some clues on how he operates but very little clue about his actual goals. 

"—I might have to remove her from the game sooner than I'd planned. Provided she does not remove herself first." Petyr teased her with a little smile. "In the game of thrones, even the humblest pieces can have wills of their own. Sometimes they refuse to make the moves you've planned for them. Mark that well, Alayne. It's a lesson that Cersei Lannister still has yet to learn. Now, don't you have some duties to perform?"

He did not hold her kiss against her. "You would not believe half of what is happening in King's Landing, sweetling. Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated that she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now . . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

[Lord Varys]

@Bright Blue Eyes

You are mistaken in your assessment that Varys only has good sources of information/agents in KL. He most likely only works with his little birds in the Red Keep and KL, but it is quite clear that he has very good information on pretty much everything that happens across the Realm and the world.

The best examples to underline that come from ACoK/ASoS where we see Varys delivering a lot of good information very quickly to Tyrion. Off the top of my head I remember the following:

1. Varys figuring out that Stannis is using actually sorcery to kill his enemies. All he has for this are reports. Agents of Varys on Dragonstone/in Stannis' employ are also mentioned.

2. Varys learns about Tyrion's abduction even before Yoren delivers that news to Ned, suggesting he must have some sort of raven/bird network of his own. A messenger-based information network could not have possibly outrun Yoren.

3. Varys has up-to-date information on events at Bitterbridge following Renly's death (Tarly putting Florents to death, etc.).

4. Varys knows who the Conclave of the Citadel is considering as the new Grand Maester. That should be very sensible information that is not going to leave the room in which the Conclave actually meets and discusses this question.

All of that suggests that Varys and the office of Master of Whisperers of the Iron Throne actually has a pretty large budget and heads a literal army of informers, agents, and spies spread all around Westeros and Essos.

Even after Varys goes literally underground his machine still seems to be working. Even Qyburn gets good pieces of information from spies in Dorne, from Doran's very own court. Granted, they only mention what has happened to Arianne's companions in the wake of the foiled Myrcella plot but they prove that Varys/the Iron Throne also has spies in Dorne.

If you actually believe that all Varys has at his disposal are a few score of mute children and his stone bed in his cell then the man wouldn't be able to accomplish anything. There must be some sort of official staff working for the Master of Whisperers just as the Master of Coin runs the entire treasury department. However, it seems as if Varys' staff/people do their work completely unseen.

AGoT gives us a hint where Varys' true lair is - down in that underground well he was ascending when Arya overheard him and Illyrio talking. If we had to guess where he spends most of his time right now then I'd say down there - and down there (or in some other secret hiding place) is most likely also the place where reports of the little birds and other agents are examined and judged by Varys' lieutenants (possibly older birds) who write general daily reports for Varys to keep him apprised about what has happened this day/week in the castle and the city.

Varys always shows up very well prepared at court or at a council session. He knows what his superiors are most likely going to want to know, and that means he must prepare himself each day anew by assessing all the new intelligence his agents have gathered. That's not a task one man could do all by himself. Just consider the amount of reports that should come in each day just from the many listening posts in the Red Keep itself. And Varys actually has detailed transcripts of many conversations in the Red Keep as his elaborate hour-long testimony during Tyrion's trial confirmed. Varys cannot possibly read through all those transcripts all by himself, nor is it likely that he would want to do that. Somebody must point out important pieces of information in those transcripts for him.

After all, other duties come with his job as well. He has to attend the king at court (often for long hours) and attend the council sessions, and then there would be official and unofficial business done in the king's name (not to mention the amount of time and effort he would put in his own grand scheme), writing letters, giving orders, writing reports of his own, etc.

Finally, the man also has to sleep.

As to Littlefinger's plans:

What Varys doesn't know/isn't able to predict in AGoT what Littlefinger is going to do in the situation at hand. He cannot predict who Littlefinger would join or back should a civil war break out now. After all, the man has good connections to the Lannisters, the Starks, the Tullys, and the Arryns. He might also not have had a clear picture whether Littlefinger would nudge Ned in the right direction regarding the incest or what he would advise Ned to do after the man finally figured out the truth.

But it makes actually little sense to assume that Varys is unaware of Littlefinger's ultimate ambition (i.e. acquiring power and prestige of his own) or that he couldn't figure out what motivations drove Littlefinger.

Varys might also be very aware about Littlefinger's day-to-day little schemes involving the treasury and what not but there is actually no sign that Littlefinger had any grand schemes/plan in the works Varys could uncover. The man spontaneously manipulates people in conversation, and when he gives orders or missions to one or two of his really trusted minions he does so in a manner that nobody can overhear/learn what he is doing. He would meet with Brune or Kettleblack in the godswood, or pass a note on to them which they afterwards burn or otherwise destroy. Varys knows of course all the people with whom Littlefinger has close and intimate contact with but that doesn't mean he can necessarily uncover all his plans.

However, we also have to keep in mind that Varys' little birds would have unlimited access to Littlefinger's apartments and offices in the Red Keep. Unless he is very careful to put nothing in writing that could give any insight into his plans Varys might actually have a lot of dirt on him. After all, the little birds could routinely copy all his paperwork with Littlefinger never noticing any of that. Not to mention that he might occasionally be forced to actually talk about his work and what he does in his office (where he would be overheard).

[Pies are coming]

 

8 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

Littlefinger is by far one of the best schemers in the books.  He carefully bankrupted the crown with Bravos and the Lannisters. He was able to secure Harrenhal, and the Vale without an Army or real title. He is also working a very carefully planned debt scheme. The Iron bank has called in all their debts on Westeros and we know that the Iron Bank always gets whats owed to them which probably is scaring the hell out of people. Littlefinger is now buying up the debt from several houses in the Vale and collecting wards as well to secure loyalty to him and sweet Robin. We have yet to see if he is actually working with the Iron Bank, but we know that littlefinger has some connection to Bravos through his grandfather and as the Master of Coin he has to have some contact with the Iron Bank. But if LittleFinger is working with the Iron Bank you would think they would want him to push the Vale lords to support Stannis. I doubt Littlefinger gives a fuck about Stannis, he already had the chance to put Stannis on the Throne with Ned but we all know how that worked out. I pretty sure he is just chasing a prophecy to birth the Prince that was promised. Sansa's Bloodline and seemingly Harrenhal all have something to do with his plan.   

Actually, it was Cersei who bankrupted the crown by building an unnecessary (at the time) fleet. Until then, the Iron Throne kept servicing its debt despite a large civil war and being cut off from the tax income of the Iron Islands, the North and the Riverlands.

I don't see that as a "master plan". More likely, Littlefinger needed to "conjure money out of thin air" to keep his job, so he never told Robert "no" and kept finding new lenders.

Littlefinger, IMHO, has general ideas (ie, start a civil war, rise through the ranks to marry Lysa and keep the army of the Vale intact for a coup de grace, whatever that maybe) and improvises as events run their course.

I wonder if he was genuine when he asked Cersei to marry Sansa or it was another misdirection, so they wouldn't suspect he was interested in Lysa and her army

[kimim]

Varys has never struck me as the master planner of the series. Lf in contrast is so lucky that he's less a character than a plot device. No one can control him, take him down, and nothing goes against his plans. Varys says he doesn't know what Littlefinger is doing: "the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing," and he really does not.

Varys is deeply worried by Ned as Hand: "Lord Stark's the one who troubles my sleep." Of course, Littlefinger's the one who gets Ned to KL by encouraging Lysa to kill Arryn.

Varys does not want Ned to discover the twincest: "He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he'll have the truth." LF, again, is the one who takes Ned by the hand, and baby walks and talks him to various bastards.

Varys does not want Lannisters and Starks to go to war...at least not yet: "I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other's throats, whether we will it or no." LF's entire plan, of course, is to set the wolf and the lion against one another, and he succeeds. Lf is responsible for the war of the five kings, the arc that defines the first three books.

Other things that go out of Varys's control: Dany, Viserys, and the dragons. Dany never uses the ships sent to her. She goes to Meereen instead. Aegon, too: Varys had wanted him to head to Dany. But no. Aegon listens to Tyrion, and lands on Westeros. In response, Varys starts copying LF. Where LF had created chaos by setting Lannister against Stark, Varys is now creating chaos by setting Lannister against Tyrell.

LF is the master planner...or has been, so far.

 

[lancerman]

Two reasons.

1. Littlefinger is an adaptive player and he has a general idea of his major goals, but is able to position himself for variables. So LF probably had a general idea of how he could use a Ned Stark as a mentor to Joffrey situation, or a Renly kingship. But he knew couldn't be on the side of Ned and a losing battle, where he would have no wiggle room. So he jumped too Joffrey's side, and then dispatched him when the time was right. LF was patient. He knew his pieces, and he knew the way they could go, and what each move meant for him.

2. LF does keep his plans largely to himself. He doesn't confide in other people. So the best you can do is see what direction he is going in, by LF is not married to anyone direction, so it's impossible to truly predict him.

[Jasta11]

3 hours ago, kimim said:

Varys has never struck me as the master planner of the series. Lf in contrast is so lucky that he's less a character than a plot device.

 

 

That was always my impression of him too. It's why I have a hard time taking him seriously. He seems to have even more plot armor than Tyrion, Jon or Dany.

[lancerman]

1 hour ago, Jasta11 said:

 

That was always my impression of him too. It's why I have a hard time taking him seriously. He seems to have even more plot armor than Tyrion, Jon or Dany.

I don't get this because we really don't  see enough of them to see how they got from point A to B. LF in particular is rarely in a dangerous situation. He's always conveniently away until the deck is stacked in his favor. 

Same with Varys really. 

The one exception is Baelish relying on Sansa to lie. But even by that point there were more reasons for her to. 

[bent branch]

One thing that shouldn't be forgotten when discussing LF's success. I'll paraphrase what he says to Sansa, "If you don't appear to have any reason for what you're doing, no one will suspect you're doing it."

That, and making sure the people he double crosses don't live to tell, is what keeps LF afloat.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

@Lord Varys

 

And everything but the happenings of the Citadel was public information. Even that can be argued to be the talk of every tavern in Oldtown, making a point about considering merit over birth is useless unless people learn about it.

Headlines in the local newspapers if Westeros already had those.

 

What Varys has are merchants or the like, who put those newspapers on the next guy going in the direction of KL, so Varys got his papers earlier than others. That's it.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Bright Blue Eyes said:

@Lord Varys

 

And everything but the happenings of the Citadel was public information. Even that can be argued to be the talk of every tavern in Oldtown, making a point about considering merit over birth is useless unless people learn about it.

Headlines in the local newspapers if Westeros already had those.

 

What Varys has are merchants or the like, who put those newspapers on the next guy going in the direction of KL, so Varys got his papers earlier than others. That's it.

But Varys getting the information earlier suggests that there is a spy/agent network in place. Everywhere across the Realm (or rather at important places like the seats of great lords) must be people who have the means to quickly send messages to the capital. This is especially evident in the case of Tyrion's abduction. Varys couldn't have known about that if the news did not reach him via raven. And one wonders whether a Riverlord maester would have informed him rather than, say, Pycelle/Cersei about that.

And the information on Renly and Penrose's death weren't exactly 'publicly available'. Those came from regions/places in control of rebels - of people who had no interest in feeding or spreading information to Westeros. There wouldn't have been any trade between Bitterbridge or Storm's End and KL during the short-lived reign of 'King Renly' or during the time when Stannis controlled the surrounding lands.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Well, yes, sort of. Like 30 minutes work of writing a letter full of gossip every couple months. Not skulking through the shadows and listening in on private conversations. Probably well-known all across the town that XY corresponds with somebody in KL.

Varys got no rookery of his own. Those are impossible to hide. Either he scams incoming birds in Pycelle's, or he is limited to riders. Which could very well outrun an elderly NW recruiter on a nondescript horse.

 

A region with several million inhabitants. No way in hell to cut down on communications there.

[Lord Varys]

36 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Well, yes, sort of. Like 30 minutes work of writing a letter full of gossip every couple months. Not skulking through the shadows and listening in on private conversations. Probably well-known all across the town that XY corresponds with somebody in KL.

Varys got no rookery of his own. Those are impossible to hide. Either he scams incoming birds in Pycelle's, or he is limited to riders. Which could very well outrun an elderly NW recruiter on a nondescript horse.

 

A region with several million inhabitants. No way in hell to cut down on communications there.

Would it be impossible for Varys to hide his own birds? I don't think so. If Varys was limited to riders and ships then Pycelle and the maesters should be running the intelligence department, not the Master of Whisperers. If we cut off Varys (or any Master of Whisperers) from the raven network then Varys wouldn't receive messages any faster than the average guy - unless, of course, this or that piece of information would travel with a quick rider determined to bring it to his master first.

We don't know what's going on down in that hidden well but it could be that Maegor the Cruel actually built a secret base of operations for his own queen and Mistress of Whisperers, Tyanna of the Tower, down there, a base that was (infrequently) used by later Masters of Whisperers. Such a base could certainly also include a long shaft for birds to enter it.

The impression we get of the 'official part' of the spy network of the Iron Throne is that the office of the Master of Whisperers pays gold to any informers who come forth - at least that's how Cersei sees it in AFfC. After Qyburn takes over the same people who used to inform Varys now collect the gold offered by the other minion of the Crown.

However, the idea that such people travel directly to KL to offer their information to the Master of Whisperers makes no sense. There must be some semi-official information brokers in Varys' employ in every city Westeros who collect and pay people for information in the Crown's name. And those people must then have the means to get the messages to the capital as quickly as possible. Was there any time for the news about Arianne's friends to reach Qyburn by ship or rider? I'm not sure about that. 

And in addition there have to be agents and spies planted into many a lord's castle and household who routinely inform the Master of Whisperers on what's going on there. Else it is not very likely he would ever get good information on what's going on in such places.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Varys doesn't receive information (much) faster than anybody else. Not from outside KL. He systematically analyzes the rumours floating around the taverns and separates the truth from the tall tales before anybody else does, that's it.

Raising and distributing ravens is a damn big operation and expensive as hell.

Yes, there was time for the news about Arianne's friends. There was enough time to make a marriage contract with a Stormlands House and get the marriage done after all.

Yes, semi-official information brokers are in most cities. Today, they would be called "part-time journalists" or "bloggers".

 

Don't speculate, show. Varys has never, ever shown such information. Never! Not outside of KL or 007 Mormont! He doesn't have it. It's beyond the scope of available technology, only getting possible about 1900, give or take some decades.

[Lord Varys]

21 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Varys doesn't receive information (much) faster than anybody else. Not from outside KL. He systematically analyzes the rumours floating around the taverns and separates the truth from the tall tales before anybody else does, that's it.

Raising and distributing ravens is a damn big operation and expensive as hell.

Yes, there was time for the news about Arianne's friends. There was enough time to make a marriage contract with a Stormlands House and get the marriage done after all.

Yes, semi-official information brokers are in most cities. Today, they would be called "part-time journalists" or "bloggers".

Don't speculate, show. Varys has never, ever shown such information. Never! Not outside of KL or 007 Mormont! He doesn't have it. It's beyond the scope of available technology, only getting possible about 1900, give or take some decades.

Well, I don't have to convince you, and I've already sufficiently convinced myself.

Money is irrelevant in all of that considering that Varys is at least partially financed by Illyrio. But the office of the Master of Whisperer should also be sufficiently funded by the Iron Throne. The idea that people like Tyanna, Mysaria, or Bloodraven went through the Grand Maester when they wanted a sensible message to be sent doesn't hold much water in my opinion.

If that was the case then the Grand Maester could also oversee all the spies because he had much better means to receive and sent information.

The comparison to journalists doesn't make much sense, in my opinion. The Masters of Whisperers aren't all that much interested in gossip, they want good insider information. For that you have to have agents in many sensible positions. Kitchen gossip is not necessarily reliable, nor is it likely to spread far beyond a particular castle (because of the simple fact that servants and peasants didn't travel on a regular basis in a medieval society).

The Estermont marriage most likely would have been arranged by raven. One raven to Greenstone, one raven back. How does any of that leave Doran Martell's solar? Eventually Doran would have announced the marriage publicly, of course, but the idea that the very moment after that some guy jumped on his horse to ride to KL as quickly as possible to sell some information to the Iron Throne isn't very realistic in my opinion.

But then, perhaps we should not presume to assume that this is all thought through. George most likely would tell us that Varys receives information as quickly as the plot needs him to, and the plot is most likely never going to touch upon how exactly this whole thing works.

For realism's sake I work with the assumption that Varys might have ravens of his own. And come to think of it - we might even see how this is going to work because Haldon might actually directly contact Varys in preparation for Aegon's attack on KL (or the gang at Storm's End might in advance receive detailed account by raven on the size and weaknesses of the Tyrell army marching against Storm's End). They should certainly got on the same page what the exact plan is.

[Blackfish Tully]

13 hours ago, Pies are coming said:

 

Actually, it was Cersei who bankrupted the crown by building an unnecessary (at the time) fleet. Until then, the Iron Throne kept servicing its debt despite a large civil war and being cut off from the tax income of the Iron Islands, the North and the Riverlands.

I don't see that as a "master plan". More likely, Littlefinger needed to "conjure money out of thin air" to keep his job, so he never told Robert "no" and kept finding new lenders.

 

The Iron Throne was in trouble financially long before Cersei built her fleet , she just accelerated their problems by doing that . Littlefinger created an economic situation with the Iron Throne that was only sustainable during peace time but would crumble during a war and then he started that  war and then managed to get out before everything went to hell and now is safely in the Vale with his fortune and reputation intact (Cersei still wants him back as the Master of Coin) while the Iron Throne is in financial ruins , sound like a pretty well made plan to me .  

[Kaibaman]

On 5/23/2016 at 10:31 PM, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Varys' spy network is restricted almost exclusively to KL itself (and Pentos). Beyond that, he has basically nothing beyond public information, which he sorts and analyses admittedly better than anybody else.

While that is true, when dealing with someone as dangerous as Littlefinger, Varys should have put him under heavier surveillance. Seriously he managed goad Joffrey into executing Ned which really screwed up Varys's plan to have him sent to the Wall. If he had just one of his little birds eavesdropping on them, that whole debacle could have been avoided.   

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Kaibaman said:

While that is true, when dealing with someone as dangerous as Littlefinger, Varys should have put him under heavier surveillance. Seriously he managed goad Joffrey into executing Ned which really screwed up Varys's plan to have him sent to the Wall. If he had just one of his little birds eavesdropping on them, that whole debacle could have been avoided.   

If Littlefinger visits Joff in his own apartments Varys has no means to eavesdrop on him. We know there are no secret listening posts in Maegor's Holdfast. And neither Varys nor his minions can make themselves invisible as far as we know.

[CJ McLannister]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Littlefinger visits Joff in his own apartments Varys has no means to eavesdrop on him. We know there are no secret listening posts in Maegor's Holdfast. And neither Varys nor his minions can make themselves invisible as far as we know.

But Joffrey had servants.  And he doesn't seem like the type who would put any effort into keeping his mouth shut, especially about something he thought was so god damned clever of him.  It's possible Littlefinger planted the idea just before the big show, but if Varys didn't own Joffrey's chamber maids (or have his spies as close to them as possible), he would be a fool.

[Lord Varys]

19 minutes ago, CJ McLannister said:

But Joffrey had servants.  And he doesn't seem like the type who would put any effort into keeping his mouth shut, especially about something he thought was so god damned clever of him.  It's possible Littlefinger planted the idea just before the big show, but if Varys didn't own Joffrey's chamber maids (or have his spies as close to them as possible), he would be a fool.

Well, Joff would have known that his mother wouldn't be in favor of that idea, wouldn't he? He was stupid but most likely not as stupid as to tell his mother stuff (or allow that she would get this information) to shut him down.

And maids and servants are not necessarily always present in the king's own chambers.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Estermont marriage most likely would have been arranged by raven. One raven to Greenstone, one raven back. How does any of that leave Doran Martell's solar? Eventually Doran would have announced the marriage publicly, of course, but the idea that the very moment after that some guy jumped on his horse to ride to KL as quickly as possible to sell some information to the Iron Throne isn't very realistic in my opinion.

The Estermont marriage had already happened, bride on her way from Sunspear to Greenstone, party guests invited, the whole deal.

 

And no, there wouldn't be any guy jjumping on any horse. Just a guy writing a letter and passing it to the next merchant ship bound for KL, postage paid upon arrival.

3 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

The Iron Throne was in trouble financially long before Cersei built her fleet , she just accelerated their problems by doing that . Littlefinger created an economic situation with the Iron Throne that was only sustainable during peace time but would crumble during a war and then he started that  war and then managed to get out before everything went to hell and now is safely in the Vale with his fortune and reputation intact (Cersei still wants him back as the Master of Coin) while the Iron Throne is in financial ruins , sound like a pretty well made plan to me .  

Not exactly, the IT's financial troubles originated way before LF could influence it. He vastly improved the situation, just not enough to actually resolve it.

Imho it was Tywin Lannister's fault, his tariff policy economically ruined the Crownlands in the long term (see: Defiance of Duskendale and Driftmark being damn obscure now),  and those were like 80% of the IT's income. Aerys' budding treasury was entirely short-term based.