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How is Littlefinger able to hide his plans from Varys?


House Beaudreau

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On 5/23/2016 at 8:31 AM, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Don't be confused by the show. LF doesn't tell anybody anything. With the notable exception of Sansa, because of the "Cat's and LF's daughter/Cat's replacement" emotional angle.

 

Furthermore, Varys' spy network is restricted almost exclusively to KL itself (and Pentos). Beyond that, he has basically nothing beyond public information, which he sorts and analyses admittedly better than anybody else.

 

Officially, LF didn't knew about Alayne either. And nobody would ever know whether LF had a one-night-stand or whatever when he was a lowly customs agent in Gulltown fifteen years ago.

Varys has good intel from the Citadel. In Tyrion II, Storm, Varys advises Tyrion that he told Tywin the Citadel had chosen a Tyrell to replace Pycelle after considering two other candidates. Tyrion noted that the Conclave met in Oldtown behind closed doors. Tyrion assumed that Varys had little birds in the Citadel. Does Varys have mute but literate orphans in the Citadel as he does in the Red Keep, or does he have an informant among the archmaesters?

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16 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Not exactly, the IT's financial troubles originated way before LF could influence it. He vastly improved the situation, just not enough to actually resolve it.

Imho it was Tywin Lannister's fault, his tariff policy economically ruined the Crownlands in the long term (see: Defiance of Duskendale and Driftmark being damn obscure now),  and those were like 80% of the IT's income. Aerys' budding treasury was entirely short-term based.

Littlefinger has been embezzling money, and using the sheer amount of debt to hide it. I can't see another explanation for why the Crown is paying wages to non-existent guards in the black cells, for example, and if he's pocketing that cash then how much else is he pocketing?

Anyway - On Topic. There is a difference between knowing what someone is doing and knowing what they are "up to". Varys probably was aware of Littlefinger's movements, etc, but that doesn't mean he knows what his plans were.

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On 5/23/2016 at 9:28 AM, Blackfish Tully said:

Good point, Varys little birds only work if you do not know they exist and you discuss your plans in their presence . Littlefinger clearly knows about the little birds so he is super careful about what he says  and he is also a master of misdirection , he even tells Sansa that sometimes he  makes moves that make no sense just to throw off his opponents. As for the belief by some posters that Littlefinger has no plans that simply is not true . You do not become Lord Protector of the Vale and Lord Paramount of the Riverlands without some carefully laid plans. 

This. Avoid detection of Varys’s little birds and keep your plans and material movements disguised as well as possible. 

Olenna knew how to avoid Varys’s little birds too. She suggested to Sansa that she was aware of Varys’s information gathering techniques. I have to think Petyr gave her a heads up.

Renly also knew how to evade detection. Recall he met with Eddard on the drawbridge. 

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On 5/23/2016 at 9:42 AM, YOVMO said:

I will say that I believe he has a Braavos connection at least in the form of Mopatis. Remember that IM is a former Bravosi Waterdancer and one of some renown and his speech and idiom usage of "just so" as well as that of the sellswords he gets would suggest that at least he is tied into Braavos in some way and if, as you say, IM is one of the primary ways that Varys gets information I don't think it is a stretch to say that he could get Varys information from Braavos should varys require it for whatever he is up to.

Huh? 

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22 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The thing is LF really can't have that carefully of laid plans, only a general idea.  For example when he had Lysa kill Jon Aryn I'm sure he had the basic idea that by starting a war between the Lannisters, Starks, and Baratheons plenty of lordships would be up for grabs and if he got rewarded with a good enough 1 he could marry Lysa and take over the Vale that way.

However getting any more specific than that means being omniscient, it would mean predicting Robbs move at the Twins, Renlys death by shadow baby, Catlyns chance encounter with Tyrion, etc etc.

LF seemingly offers to throw in with Ned, and I bet Sansa is the reason.  He then offers to Marry Sansa later when Cersei is in power, and basically my point is he seems to abandon his plan of marrying Lysa entirely opting for a new plan, probably of being lord of WF through Sansa.  When that doesn't work he go's back to the Lysa plan and keeps Sansa in his back pocket.

It really seems like he doesn't have 1 set master plan, but makes certain plans and reacts quickly to most other events.

When he made the offer to Eddard, didn't he counsel Eddard to go ahead and wed Sansa to Joffrey? 

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11 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Varys has good intel from the Citadel. In Tyrion II, Storm, Varys advises Tyrion that he told Tywin the Citadel had chosen a Tyrell to replace Pycelle after considering two other candidates. Tyrion noted that the Conclave met in Oldtown behind closed doors. Tyrion assumed that Varys had little birds in the Citadel. Does Varys have mute but literate orphans in the Citadel as he does in the Red Keep, or does he have an informant among the archmaesters?

"Closed" doors. In that very chapter, Varys talks about the archmaesters considering the cordwainer's and hedgekneght's sons, to promote their merit over birth propaganda. Doesn't work if no rumours of it slip out of these doors.

The Citadel is the second-most important place of Westeros anyway, and with far, far, far more holes than any castle.

9 minutes ago, UnFit Finlay said:

Littlefinger has been embezzling money, and using the sheer amount of debt to hide it. I can't see another explanation for why the Crown is paying wages to non-existent guards in the black cells, for example, and if he's pocketing that cash then how much else is he pocketing?

Not disputing that LF profited of his job in less than savory ways*. But he neither created nor worsened the fnancial situation: he actually honest-to-god improved it.

The situation and it's causes predate his rise.

 

* Outright embezzlement is unlikely though. Lousy profit, severe repercussions and way too easy to detect. Insider trading is way more profitable and not even illegal in Westeros.

The non-existant guards are more about Ilyn Payne not keeping up with the paperwork and adjusting his budget to the employment situation. Embezzlement as well-known as that wouldn't work.

Keeping tabs on stuff like that isn't LF's job. Not his problem, no blame will be flung his way ever.

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9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Huh? 

Sorry if my phrasing was off a bit. IM was a bravo of some skill. The statue in his courtyard of Pentos is of him as a youth. He befriends young Varys (protects him physically while Varys does more non physical type protecting) and IM gets pretty wealthy and married some pentoshi royalty which is, ostensibly, why he moved to Pentos. So it is not unreasonable to say that Illyrio has enough of a connection to Braavos and to Varys that it is totally plausible that Varys can get information from there.

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7 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

Sorry if my phrasing was off a bit. IM was a bravo of some skill. The statue in his courtyard of Pentos is of him as a youth. He befriends young Varys (protects him physically while Varys does more non physical type protecting) and IM gets pretty wealthy and married some pentoshi royalty which is, ostensibly, why he moved to Pentos. So it is not unreasonable to say that Illyrio has enough of a connection to Braavos and to Varys that it is totally plausible that Varys can get information from there.

Bravos aren't necessarily from Braavos. "Bravo" was used to described a certain style of fighter in continental Europe, usually Italy in the late Middle Ages. It's a generic term. And folks from all over the Free Cities say, "just so." I am pretty sure Illyrio is from Pentos. Do you have any other reason to believe Illyrio is from Braavos? 

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1 minute ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Bravos aren't necessarily from Braavos. "Bravo" was used to described a certain style of fighter in continental Europe, usually Italy in the late Middle Ages. It's a generic term. And folks from all over the Free Cities say, "just so." I am pretty sure Illyrio is from Pentos. Do you have any other reason to believe Illyrio is from Braavos? 

Quite right. I am sorry, I was equating Bravos (as in the style of fighter) with the bravos in Braavos and wasn't allowing for the possibility of pentoshi bravos.

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17 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

Quite right. I am sorry, I was equating Bravos (as in the style of fighter) with the bravos in Braavos and wasn't allowing for the possibility of pentoshi bravos.

Just so. :)

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The question is LF just wanted to flee to the Vale with Lysa, and to be the consort Lord of the Vale and Guardian of the East, while SR grey up, or died. Not that I say he wouldn't be wanting for more in a while, but it'd come then. It wasn't something to even dray Varys' attention.

Things got wild, and LF has shown to be the more able to thrive in chaos. In particular, Sansa changes everything in all but every sense. If LF had ever had a plan, he's obsviously changed it.

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1 hour ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Not disputing that LF profited of his job in less than savory ways*. But he neither created nor worsened the fnancial situation: he actually honest-to-god improved it.

The situation and it's causes predate his rise.

*

There is no doubt that he improved the Iron Throne's financial situation by creating multiple income streams that did not exist before he arrived but his improvements also left the Iron Throne's finances vulnerable to a situation such as a civil war .  

The debt that the Iron Throne took on while Littlefinger was Master of Coin was not really a problem for the Iron Throne as long as the income streams that he created were still open but once the income streams dried up then the Iron Throne was in a very difficult financial position, which i believe was Littlefinger's plan all along. 

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1 hour ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

 Outright embezzlement is unlikely though. Lousy profit, severe repercussions and way too easy to detect. Insider trading is way more profitable and not even illegal in Westeros.

 

I agree that insider trading would be the way that Littlefinger would make his fortune . It would be easy as Master of Coin to use his power and inside knowledge to enrich himself and not leave any evidence behind. 

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It's important to the story that nobody knows what Littlefinger is up to. It's the only logical reason for him not to have been found out. At the very least somebody would notice his constant advancement and get suspicious. Varys doesn't know because GRRM doesn't want him to know. Anyone else and he sniffs it out like that (insert snapping sound here!).

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On 5/23/2016 at 11:10 PM, House Beaudreau said:

Varys clearly doesn't know the extent of Littlefinger's plan. When Arya overhears him in GOT and he says "the gods only know what Littlefinger is up too." How the hell does that happen. Littlefinger hangs in Brothels and we all know whores make the best spies. I believe Varys when he say he doesn't know the where abouts of Sansa Stark after Littlefinger "Kidnaps" her. even if he didn't know Littlefingers plans you would assume hes heard that Littlefinger is hanging out with his Bastard daughter Alayne stone. Vary would probably know if Littlefinger had a bastard daughter. So would he put it together that its probably sansa stark.  

Varys established a great network of spies, however, spies are quite terrible at reading minds. LF is not an idiot. Information that is particularly sensitive is probably not spoken of in a brothel. LF either says nothing at all, or if he has a friend they are communicating in some sort of ciphered language. Philip II's network of spies were meticulous, but they could not gather everything. Varys is also meticulous, yet he cannot possibly know everything. 

Also. LF owns brothels....Whereas Varys may know different, the less perceptive or knowledgeable individual may pass off Alayne as one of LF's escapades in his brothel.   

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13 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

It's important to the story that nobody knows what Littlefinger is up to. It's the only logical reason for him not to have been found out. At the very least somebody would notice his constant advancement and get suspicious. Varys doesn't know because GRRM doesn't want him to know. Anyone else and he sniffs it out like that (insert snapping sound here!).

This just seems like a bit of a cop-out answer. There's hardly anything in ASoIaF doesn't make sense but happens to advance to the plot, especially on the scale of a hugely influential character like Littlefinger. 

While it's true he has advanced well beyond what might be considered possible for a minor Lord, it was neither fast nor pointless. Much of his ascension to Master of Coin was because of his skill in maximizing profitability; should everybody become suspicious of him advancing (under a number of different Lords, to boot) because he isn't (relatively) high born?  Even if people do grow suspicious of him, on what grounds can they act on those suspicions? LF is extremely careful, unpredictable, and thrives on the chaos he creates. Most importantly, though, he is underestimated. Varys seems to be one of the few men who actually understands how dangerous LF is, while everyone else sees him as a minor lord with some use for their own grand plans.

Do you have anything to suggest that Varys should know about LF's plots, but doesn't because GRRM wants to keep them secret?

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39 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

It's important to the story that nobody knows what Littlefinger is up to. It's the only logical reason for him not to have been found out. At the very least somebody would notice his constant advancement and get suspicious. Varys doesn't know because GRRM doesn't want him to know. Anyone else and he sniffs it out like that (insert snapping sound here!).

Why would Varys know anything about what Littlefinger is up to? It's pretty easy to keep your plans secret just do not tell anybody them. Clearly Varys knows Littlefinger is up to no good , he even states that several times,  but he has no idea what Littlefinger end goal is and unless he's a mind reader that would be expected especially considering that Littllefinger is on to Varys's "little birds"

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14 minutes ago, Fox of House McCloud said:

This just seems like a bit of a cop-out answer. There's hardly anything in ASoIaF doesn't make sense but happens to advance to the plot, especially on the scale of a hugely influential character like Littlefinger. 

While it's true he has advanced well beyond what might be considered possible for a minor Lord, it was neither fast nor pointless. Much of his ascension to Master of Coin was because of his skill in maximizing profitability; should everybody become suspicious of him advancing (under a number of different Lords, to boot) because he isn't (relatively) high born?  Even if people do grow suspicious of him, on what grounds can they act on those suspicions? LF is extremely careful, unpredictable, and thrives on the chaos he creates. Most importantly, though, he is underestimated. Varys seems to be one of the few men who actually understands how dangerous LF is, while everyone else sees him as a minor lord with some use for their own grand plans.

Do you have anything to suggest that Varys should know about LF's plots, but doesn't because GRRM wants to keep them secret?

See this is what bugs me about people who love Littlefinger. The fact that he's just so smart that everything he does somehow works out in his favor is just ridiculous.    Eventually something is going to blow up in your face. And I get it, it eventually will. But he's been at at this for years, nothing has gone wrong yet? Nothing? He's found a way to deal with EVERYTHING. Some important deaths have happened around him, Jon Arryn, Ned, Joffrey, Lyssa. Nobody suspects his hand in any of them? It strains credibility that he could get away with this for so long without somebody selling him out to save their own skin. How many dozens of people saw him betray Ned in the throne room? Ned's guys died but the Lannister soldiers never said one word? None of them? Janos Slynt never bragged about it to anyone? This is what I mean, sure he's crafty, but the stars always seem to align for him, which is just crazy. And as for Varys, he knows Littlefinger is up to something but isn't sure what, okay. But again all the people on his payroll, nobody ever sells him out for a bag of gold? And Varys isn't above killing Kevan and Pycelle because they're in his way, but Littlefinger gets a pass? Divine intervention is all I'm saying. Even if he's the smartest and luckiest guy in the world, to keep this up at this level for so long without getting caught red handed isn't realistic. An occasional move here and there, sure. But the amount of crap he's pulled without getting any dirt on his uniform is just silly. Tyrion realizes right away the guy was running a ponzi scheme, but lucky for Littlefinger he kills Joffrey, blames it on Tyrion and he doesn't get the chance to tell anyone. Whew, that was close!

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