How is Littlefinger able to hide his plans from Varys?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Varys does know how the bets at Joffrey's nameday tourney ended up. It was the talk of the entire table. Literally anybody in the Red Keep knew about it.

Furthermore, at the Hand's Tourney Robert makes a joke about wishing Tyrion was here, so he could win another bet against him when Jaime would loose his joust. Ned didn't pick up on it - but Robert proved Littlefinger a liar right in fron of Ned's face.

It was an incredible risk for LF to take. An insane one, to tell the truth. The only reason he wasn't found out and executed for treason was the Big Lie theory, that Varys backs him up and a bunch of luck.

[bent branch]

There seems to be some misunderstanding about Varys' spy networks.

Spy Organization in Essos:

Before coming to King's Landing, Varys and Illyrio ran a spy organization that covered all of the Free Cities of Essos. Varys would steal the secrets of wealthy and powerful individuals of Essos and Illyrio would sell them back. This made both of them exceedingly wealthy. That's right, Varys is as wealthy as Illyrio. This previously established spy network is still functioning. Illyrio explained how it worked to Tyrion.

Spy Organization in Westeros:

Varys had essentially two different spy networks going in Westeros. The first was people who Varys paid to bring him information. Varys accepted information from anyone who wanted to sell. However, this restricted him to the information that someone was willing to sell. If there was no one willing to sell to him, then Varys had no information from that area. Once Varys went underground, this spy network turned to Qyburn. When it is said that Qyburn has taken over Varys' "Little Birds", these are the people they are talking about. Cersei even says particularly that paying these people money is all that is needed.

Varys' second spy network is a bunch of tongueless children that move through the walls of the Red Keep. No one knows about these children. The proof is that no one has ever said, "HOLY SHIT! THERE ARE TONGUELESS CHILDREN IN THE WALLS!" In fact, they haven't even figured out that there are secret passages throughout the Red Keep (except for Maegor's Holdfast). Notice how they burned and tore down the Tower of the Hand because of the secret passages, but have said nothing about all the rest of them. Also, notice how Varys can still move at will through the RK. Also, notice how Varys still had control of the children when he killed Kevan and Pycelle. All of these things indicate that no one knows about the tongueless children.

What does LF know about Varys' spy network. He knows about the people who sell information. Actually, pretty much everyone does since Varys lets it be widely known that he pays for information. LF is also aware that Varys has a very efficient information gathering method inside the RK. We are more or less told what LF knows through Dontos explaining to Sansa why they must meet in the Godswood. Dontos explains to Sansa that they must meet in the Godswood, because that way they can see if anyone is approaching close enough to hear what they are saying. LF knows that if something is said inside a building it is highly likely to be reported back to Varys. LF doesn't know it is because of children in the walls, but he does know that if you can't visually verify that no one is close enough to hear you, then you can't be certain you won't be overheard. One thing that is interesting about this is that the TV show had the Godswood be a place that someone could hide amongst the thick trees in order to have a secret conversation, exactly opposite of the book.

Finally, at some point someone suggested Olenna knew about the children in the walls (I don't know who after reading so many posts). This is inaccurate. Olenna simply used the same technique as LF did when he had Dontos and Sansa meet in the Godswood. By having Butterbumps sing so loudly while they talked quietly, Olenna insured that she could see anyone moving close enough to hear in time to stop talking. This in no way suggests she knows there are children in the walls.

[RedShirt47]

On 23/05/2016 at 8:32 AM, Sullen said:

Littlefinger doesn't have any real plan, he's more of a reactionary player.

Roll the dice, see can be done with it.

I think there is much to this.

Littlefinger doesn't have a grand long term strategy or even an end goal in mind. He grabs opportunities to advance his position and power. Sometimes he creates these opportunities by throwing a spanner in the works.

Varys is the opposite, he is the master of the long game. He and Illyrio have been working to get Aegon on the throne for decades (probably even longer than Aegon has been alive).

[Pies are coming]

20 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

There is no doubt that he improved the Iron Throne's financial situation by creating multiple income streams that did not exist before he arrived but his improvements also left the Iron Throne's finances vulnerable to a situation such as a civil war .  

The debt that the Iron Throne took on while Littlefinger was Master of Coin was not really a problem for the Iron Throne as long as the income streams that he created were still open but once the income streams dried up then the Iron Throne was in a very difficult financial position, which i believe was Littlefinger's plan all along. 

No country works with enough surpluses to withstand the lost revenue of a civil war of the scale of the Wot5K. Think of it: they've lost income from the King's Landing trade while Stannis had a fleet at Dragonstone, customs income from the Iron Islands, the North and temporarily, the Reach. The Westerlands got separated from King's Landing until the Blackwater, so the money flowing from that part of the Kingdom stopped flowing. The Riverlands got savaged - whatever income went to the IT is most likely lost.

On top, you have all the added expenses of war: the wildfire, arming the goldcloaks, rebuilding damaged parts of King's Landing, etc.

All this is somewhat offset by the fact that most of the Crown's revenues probably come from the Crownlands themselves rather than the rest of Westeros. But think of the lost income. If the Iron Throne was supposed to regularly work with enough surpluses to offset all that, in peacime they are either overtaxing their people or hoarding gold instead of expending it on bridges and other infraestructure.

Really, it's surprising the Iron Throne was able to hold off a default until so late in the war. And even then, it only defaulted because Cersei wanted to rebuild the Royal Fleet instead of relying in the Redwynes for the time being.

If anything, this speaks of Littlefinger strengthening the Crown's income and bureaucracy rather than ruining it. He can make himself rich with insider trading, after all, and that doesn't risk Varys snitching him to Robert at the earliest inconvenience.

15 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

The dagger lie. He was lying to Catelyn (and second-hand) to Ned about something easily checked (or coming up in conversation) and he did it with Varys standing straight beside him.

And this lie set the wheels of the Wot5K in motion. Gigantic risk, gigantic reward.

 

But that's the only one.

 

12 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

There was also Aron Santigar the Master of Arms of the Red Keep, Rodrick Cassel is sent by Cat to see if he knows who it belongs too. Santigar surely knew the daggar was Roberts but he keeps his mouth shut. Santigar is from Dorne. If he is working for Doran Martell he would probably want to check with him before he says anything that could change the game that much. Or maybe he knows that Joffery gave it to the Assassin and is protecting him. Santigar is Killed in the Riot of kings Landing. If he was the only person that really knows that Littlefinger lied about the Dagger, then is it possible that Littlefinger planned the riot in kings landing? To kill Santigar and maybe kidnap Sansa if the Hound wouldn't have saved her?     

The thing with the dagger story is that the weapon was Robert's. Santigar is not going to snitch on the King until he knows what's really going on, if he speaks at all. So no, the Master of Arms of the Red Keep will not tell Rodrick "Oh, you're inquiring about a unique weapon and won't tell me why. Sure, it's the King's weapon". If he values his neck, it's entirely possible for him to delay and tell him he'll check and get back to him later - which gives time for Varys or LF to catch up with him and cover their own asses.

As for Littlefinger, suppose Ned finds out the truth about the dagger and Robert confronts him about it. First, Varys sinks with him. Second, he has the perfect excuse: he was covering up for the King

[Sullen]

9 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Varys does know how the bets at Joffrey's nameday tourney ended up. It was the talk of the entire table. Literally anybody in the Red Keep knew about it.

Furthermore, at the Hand's Tourney Robert makes a joke about wishing Tyrion was here, so he could win another bet against him when Jaime would loose his joust. Ned didn't pick up on it - but Robert proved Littlefinger a liar right in fron of Ned's face.

It was an incredible risk for LF to take. An insane one, to tell the truth. The only reason he wasn't found out and executed for treason was the Big Lie theory, that Varys backs him up and a bunch of luck.

His luck is not only insane concerning Varys's reaction, but Tyrion's as well.

I find it very hard to believe that spiteful vindictive Tyrion would not take revenge on Littlefinger as soon as he could after discovering he framed him. 

[Greg B]

18 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

No way, man. He's the big bad of ASOIAF's first act. 

Well, yeah, this is what we eventually learn. On my first read, I didn't think I was reading the kind of fantasy story that features a "big bad," and upon rereads I'm certain that the story isn't better for it (in my opinion). Moreover, it's my suspicion that the author wasn't originally writing the kind of story that features a "big bad," but that he fell back on it to untangle his garden when it grew out of control. In short, I think LF is lame and what we eventually discover about his role in W5K diminishes the story's realism, logic, and strong, well-grounded characterization. Again, all IMHO.

[Fox of House McCloud]

11 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Varys does know how the bets at Joffrey's nameday tourney ended up. It was the talk of the entire table. Literally anybody in the Red Keep knew about it.

Any textual evidence to support this? I don't remember these bets ever being brought up again...

11 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Furthermore, at the Hand's Tourney Robert makes a joke about wishing Tyrion was here, so he could win another bet against him when Jaime would loose his joust. Ned didn't pick up on it - but Robert proved Littlefinger a liar right in fron of Ned's face.

I looked through both POV chapters from the Hand's Tourney (Sansa and Eddard) and didn't find any such quote by Robert. Renly makes a bet with Littlefinger on the Jaime/Hound match (backing the Hound), and afterwards says he could've made twice as much if 'the Imp' had been there. It's still a contradiction to Littlefinger's story, although less directly (implying Tyrion would have bet on Jaime, not necessarily that Tyrion always bets on Jaime) and it's simply part of the back-and-forth going on between Littlefinger and Renly following the joust, two people Ned is, perhaps, not playing a ton of attention to... he's got bigger things swirling around his mind.

One other note I wanted to make quick - Littlefinger creates the tension between Starks and Lannisters with Lysa's letter. When he tells Cat that the dagger belongs to Tyrion, he is telling her exactly what she wants to hear (and already suspects). Making it ever more likely that she wouldn't look into the issue further.

I'm not trying to say there was no luck/random factor in this whole plot; but rather, that it's not as ridiculous as some people make it out to be.

[CJ McLannister]

3 hours ago, Sullen said:

I find it very hard to believe that spiteful vindictive Tyrion would not take revenge on Littlefinger as soon as he could after discovering he framed him. 

Tyrion didn't (as) become spiteful and vindictive until after he was framed for murdering the king.  He wanted to try and figure out Littlefinger's game before taking revenge.  Turning a singer or two into soup is one thing.  He can't just send Bronn to cut the master of coin's throat without some blowback.  He was focused on outmaneuvering his sister and defending the city.  Once he knew Littlefinger wasn't the one feeding info to Cersei, he moved to other things.  If he had continued as hand, he would have eventually tried to catch Lord Baelish, but he didn't see him as the most immediate threat.

[JonisHenryTudor]

21 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

 

That only applies to Sansa. See: emotional clusterfuck.

He never, ever bragged to anybody else.

Yes....I know the guy seems to have an ego, but he isn't likely to wander around bragging about certain things....

[House Beaudreau]

16 hours ago, Fox of House McCloud said:

Good catch; Aron Santagar is explicitly stated to have met with Rodrik Cassel earlier in the afternoon, just a paragraph or two before Littlefinger claims ownership of the dagger. Considering Varys (directly or indirectly) got information from Rodrik, it stands to reason that he might have seen Aron as well. As for Aron's silence... and interesting question. Perhaps he learned of what Joffery had done, and decided it would be in his best interest to feign ignorance? If he reveals that Littlefinger is lying, though, it draws attention to his own lie, the one he told Rodrik prior to Cat's meeting with Varys/Littlefinger. He can't out Littlefinger without outing himself.

As for the riot, I think it's rather unlikely that Littlefinger orchestrated it. He wasn't in King's Landing at the time, and I don't think even he would try to control a mob. Aron was pulled from his saddle, and the Hound came across four men holding him down and bashing his head in with a cobblestone - perhaps a boon for Littlefinger (if Aron did indeed pose a threat), but more likely the raw brutality of a starving mob. It's also fairly likely that Sansa would have just been raped/killed if the Hound hadn't come for her... spiriting someone out of the royal procession in a mob like that would be impossible, especially someone with a giant target on their head.

I agree that the Riot caused by littlefinger is a long shot but lets look at what we know went down at the riot. 

Yes littlefinger was not in Kings Landing but we know that Littlefinger is sometimes in a place when its said hes not.he was supposed to be in or on his way to the vale but he was actually waiting for sansa after Joffs wedding in ASOS. 

Thinking back about what goes down with Sansa during the riot, if Littlefinger did plan the riot I don't think he planned on kidnapping Sansa probably just wanted her kept safe. 

Ser Mandon Moore was suppose to protect sansa but he left her to protect Joffery. Mandon Moore came to Kings Landing with Jon Arryn and was made a Kings Guard by Robert even though neither Robert or Jon Arryn had any Love for the Man. Which makes me think that he could be Littlefingers man. I think Barristan Selmy says something like he had no friends except his sword and his life was service. Pretty much everything you want in a Kingsguard, so it could be that Barristan recommended him but i doubt it. If he is Littlefingers man it makes sense why Mandon Moore tried to kill tyrion on the Blackwater. Tyrion is still the only man that could question Littlefinger's lie about the dagger. It wouldn't be the first time or the last time Littlefinger tries to Kill Tyrion directly or indirectly. And Littlefinger was freshly angry with Tyrion over Mrycella going to Dorne and not the Vale. 

The woman with the dead baby gets passed the the Gold Cloaks to block the way of the Royal party. We know that Littlefinger controls the Gold Cloaks. 

This is where I am really reaching and in need of some help with theories. Ser Preston Greenfield Dies. I don't know why little finger would want him dead but he is replaced by Ser Balon Swann. Littlefinger and Balon Swann were both being considered by the stokeworths to marry Lolly stokeworth. We know Littlefinger doesnt want to marry her, but in the riot Lollys is rape half a hundred time and become pregnant with a bastard making it hard to find a match for her and Balon Swann is named to the Kings Guard so he can never marry. WHY Doesn't littlefinger want Lollys married? 

The High septon is Killed also. Coincidence? probably but littlefinger does say that he is hard to deal with. But littefinger has nothing to do with his replacement, which doesnt seem like littlefinger if we are assuming he had all this planned out.

A goldsmith is also killed later that night... maybe he made littlefinger mad? Littlefinger would know all the goldsmiths as master of coin right?

I think everyone Suspects Varys as the one who planned the Riot but how does that benefit his Aegon plan? This probably needs a whole new thread.    

[Pies are coming]

2 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

I agree that the Riot caused by littlefinger is a long shot but lets look at what we know went down at the riot. 

Yes littlefinger was not in Kings Landing but we know that Littlefinger is sometimes in a place when its said hes not.he was supposed to be in or on his way to the vale but he was actually waiting for sansa after Joffs wedding in ASOS. 

Thinking back about what goes down with Sansa during the riot, if Littlefinger did plan the riot I don't think he planned on kidnapping Sansa probably just wanted her kept safe. 

Ser Mandon Moore was suppose to protect sansa but he left her to protect Joffery. Mandon Moore came to Kings Landing with Jon Arryn and was made a Kings Guard by Robert even though neither Robert or Jon Arryn had any Love for the Man. Which makes me think that he could be Littlefingers man. I think Barristan Selmy says something like he had no friends except his sword and his life was service. Pretty much everything you want in a Kingsguard, so it could be that Barristan recommended him but i doubt it. If he is Littlefingers man it makes sense why Mandon Moore tried to kill tyrion on the Blackwater. Tyrion is still the only man that could question Littlefinger's lie about the dagger. It wouldn't be the first time or the last time Littlefinger tries to Kill Tyrion directly or indirectly. And Littlefinger was freshly angry with Tyrion over Mrycella going to Dorne and not the Vale. 

The woman with the dead baby gets passed the the Gold Cloaks to block the way of the Royal party. We know that Littlefinger controls the Gold Cloaks. 

This is where I am really reaching and in need of some help with theories. Ser Preston Greenfield Dies. I don't know why little finger would want him dead but he is replaced by Ser Balon Swann. Littlefinger and Balon Swann were both being considered by the stokeworths to marry Lolly stokeworth. We know Littlefinger doesnt want to marry her, but in the riot Lollys is rape half a hundred time and become pregnant with a bastard making it hard to find a match for her and Balon Swann is named to the Kings Guard so he can never marry. WHY Doesn't littlefinger want Lollys married? 

The High septon is Killed also. Coincidence? probably but littlefinger does say that he is hard to deal with. But littefinger has nothing to do with his replacement, which doesnt seem like littlefinger if we are assuming he had all this planned out.

A goldsmith is also killed later that night... maybe he made littlefinger mad? Littlefinger would know all the goldsmiths as master of coin right?

I think everyone Suspects Varys as the one who planned the Riot but how does that benefit his Aegon plan? This probably needs a whole new thread.    

Mandon Moore could have chosen Joffrey over Sansa because, at the end of the day, that's his duty.

As for the riots, the city was on the verge already. There is no need for a "master planner" to be behind it. That said, it may be that Varys or Littlefinger arranged for that mother to step in front of the Royal procession to stir things up. But once such a riot starts, there is no way to control it. They can't simply pinpoint people they want killed, raped or gone missing in advance.

[Lady_of_the_black]

On 5/22/2016 at 11:10 PM, House Beaudreau said:

Varys clearly doesn't know the extent of Littlefinger's plan. When Arya overhears him in GOT and he says "the gods only know what Littlefinger is up too." How the hell does that happen. Littlefinger hangs in Brothels and we all know whores make the best spies. I believe Varys when he say he doesn't know the where abouts of Sansa Stark after Littlefinger "Kidnaps" her. even if he didn't know Littlefingers plans you would assume hes heard that Littlefinger is hanging out with his Bastard daughter Alayne stone. Vary would probably know if Littlefinger had a bastard daughter. So would he put it together that its probably sansa stark.  

I agree that he has got to know.. It's too obvious. Maybe sansa doesn't matter much to varys plans. Maybe keeping her whereabouts secret helps him somehow, maybe so aegon can claim the throne before someone arranges marriage for her, and claims her queen of the north. Announcing that he knows where sansa is would cause trouble. Suitors would line up, banners would be called, and war plans would be made. Plus if she is in the eyrie, then how would any one get to her to stop these plans? I think varys is ignoring littlefingers doings as of now, hoping that he keeps her secret for a bit longer, and is focusing on getting aegon on the throne as quickly as possible. And dany. I think he knows that whoever has dragons, they will be the winners. If he can get them over here, the throne is won and littlefinger can't use sansa for much. But maybe all LF wants is sansa?The Starks would definitely bend the knee to dragons, just like they did when aegon I conquered. That would be the smart thing to do.

[Lord Estermont]

Littlefinger is like an animal waiting for it's prey to come under his mouth.It only sees it's close surroundings, Varys is like an eagle who never hunts, he cant see something that doesnt want to be seen and isnt moving.