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How is Littlefinger able to hide his plans from Varys?


House Beaudreau

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Varys clearly doesn't know the extent of Littlefinger's plan. When Arya overhears him in GOT and he says "the gods only know what Littlefinger is up too." How the hell does that happen. Littlefinger hangs in Brothels and we all know whores make the best spies. I believe Varys when he say he doesn't know the where abouts of Sansa Stark after Littlefinger "Kidnaps" her. even if he didn't know Littlefingers plans you would assume hes heard that Littlefinger is hanging out with his Bastard daughter Alayne stone. Vary would probably know if Littlefinger had a bastard daughter. So would he put it together that its probably sansa stark.  

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He probably does know about Sansa and can't do much about it or is saving the knowledge for a more important time. I also think that LF doesn't have much of a plan per se, he merely sets himself up to make important choices with important people which is why he's so hard to predict. LF was also working with Olenna who is no slouch when it comes to intrigue

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If you're talking about Littlefinger's motives, you should have a read of this new topic: it's very good.

We know that Littlefinger has corrupted some of Varys' spies, and it's hinted that they have dirt on each other. I think it's probably a case of neither of them feeling confident enough to openly attack the other.

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5 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

 Littlefinger hangs in Brothels and we all know whores make the best spies. 

I doubt that LF hangs in brothels to tell his plans to the whores.

Well, at least not in the books.

 

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Don't be confused by the show. LF doesn't tell anybody anything. With the notable exception of Sansa, because of the "Cat's and LF's daughter/Cat's replacement" emotional angle.

 

Furthermore, Varys' spy network is restricted almost exclusively to KL itself (and Pentos). Beyond that, he has basically nothing beyond public information, which he sorts and analyses admittedly better than anybody else.

 

Officially, LF didn't knew about Alayne either. And nobody would ever know whether LF had a one-night-stand or whatever when he was a lowly customs agent in Gulltown fifteen years ago.

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53 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Varys' spy network is restricted almost exclusively to KL itself (and Pentos).

This is a really interesting thing that I had not really considered. Can you provide textual evidence that he doesn't get whispers from, say, highgarden or the vale or the stormlands or dorne, or from places other than Pentos in Essos -- specifically Braavos which I would have figured him having some connections to.

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47 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Don't be confused by the show. LF doesn't tell anybody anything. With the notable exception of Sansa, because of the "Cat's and LF's daughter/Cat's replacement" emotional angle.

 

Furthermore, Varys' spy network is restricted almost exclusively to KL itself (and Pentos). Beyond that, he has basically nothing beyond public information, which he sorts and analyses admittedly better than anybody else.

 

Officially, LF didn't knew about Alayne either. And nobody would ever know whether LF had a one-night-stand or whatever when he was a lowly customs agent in Gulltown fifteen years ago.

Good point, Varys little birds only work if you do not know they exist and you discuss your plans in their presence . Littlefinger clearly knows about the little birds so he is super careful about what he says  and he is also a master of misdirection , he even tells Sansa that sometimes he  makes moves that make no sense just to throw off his opponents. As for the belief by some posters that Littlefinger has no plans that simply is not true . You do not become Lord Protector of the Vale and Lord Paramount of the Riverlands without some carefully laid plans. 

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56 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Officially, LF didn't knew about Alayne either. And nobody would ever know whether LF had a one-night-stand or whatever when he was a lowly customs agent in Gulltown fifteen years ago.

I was in an a topic a while back and some posters made the case that the Vale Lords would immediately be suspicious of Alayne because she was a bastard who came out of nowhere but i made the argument that nobody really pays  much attention to bastards so Littlefinger revealing a bastard girl out of nowhere would not be a big deal , none of the Vale Lords would ever pay attention to  how many bastards a insignificant lord like Littlefinger would have . 

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Just now, YOVMO said:

This is a really interesting thing that I had not really considered. Can you provide textual evidence that he doesn't get whispers from, say, highgarden or the vale or the stormlands or dorne, or from places other than Pentos in Essos -- specifically Braavos which I would have figured him having some connections to.

No, I can't. The whole issue with proving a negative.

 

On the other hand, I dare you to try and find any textual evidence that he does. Coupled with the technical difficulties maintaining communications across these distances It's pretty much confirmed that he doesn't.

 

When Varys presents any information to the readers, it's either from KL, from Illyrio Mopatis or something that could as well be in the (local) papers, if Planetos had such.

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2 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Good point, Varys little birds only work if you do not know they exist and you discuss your plans in their presence . Littlefinger clearly knows about the little birds so he is super careful about what he says  and he is also a master of misdirection , he even tells Sansa that sometimes he  makes moves that make no sense just to throw off his opponents. As for the belief by some posters that Littlefinger has no plans that simply is not true . You do not become Lord Protector of the Vale and Lord Paramount of the Riverlands without some carefully laid plans. 

I feel it is a mistake to think that Varys only gets information from the little birds. He learned, when young, as he tells Tyrion, that the contents of a mans letters are often more valuable than the contents of a mans purse. I think it is very likely that, while the birds are an excellent and maybe even his primary source for gossip, that he is also involved in black mail, raven interception and other ways of finding things out.

 

As for Littlefinger you are dead on. The consequences that have followed, naturally, from his actions are too much to be assumed that he is just lucky.

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2 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

No, I can't. The whole issue with proving a negative.

 

On the other hand, I dare you to try and find any textual evidence that he does. Coupled with the technical difficulties maintaining communications across these distances It's pretty much confirmed that he doesn't.

 

When Varys presents any information to the readers, it's either from KL, from Illyrio Mopatis or something that could as well be in the (local) papers, if Planetos had such.

This is fair enough for the most part. I mean, yes, I could easily say that there is no reason to assume he doesn't have these connections but that is spurious and I don't have much to go on.

I will say that I believe he has a Braavos connection at least in the form of Mopatis. Remember that IM is a former Bravosi Waterdancer and one of some renown and his speech and idiom usage of "just so" as well as that of the sellswords he gets would suggest that at least he is tied into Braavos in some way and if, as you say, IM is one of the primary ways that Varys gets information I don't think it is a stretch to say that he could get Varys information from Braavos should varys require it for whatever he is up to.

I do think that he involves himself in blackmail, raven theft and other less than savory things to steal information or place people in situations where they can get information or blackmail people in sensitive positions, but I can't think of textual evidence off hand right now so I will leave that to this side...though I will put a bookmark in it and give it further thought and come back to you if I feel I have something.

Full disclosure, I am firmly on team Varys and IM are facelessmen.

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"Stannis Baratheon and Lysa Arryn have fled beyond my reach, and the whispers say they are gathering swords around them. The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen."

That is probably the best bit of evidence for Varys' network outside KL. It suggests good connections in Highgarden or intercepting mail, and some but not much at Dragonstone and the Eyrie. Also he does know about Tyrion's kidnapping before Yoren goes to Ned, despite Yoren supposedly being the first man on the road.

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It's not that Varys wouldn't be interested, or wouldn't be capable of creating such elsewhere. But he has to act inside the constraints posed by the available communication technology, by his budget and his manpower.

 

The KGB had 500,000 full-timers 25 years ago. US Intelligence got about 900,000. Official numbers, that is, neither unofficial ones nor actual informers included. And all the benefits of planes, telephones, internet...

Varys' dinky little corner office doesn't compare. Not one little bit.

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7 hours ago, Sullen said:

Littlefinger doesn't have any real plan, he's more of a reactionary player.

Roll the dice, see can be done with it.

Littlefinger is by far one of the best schemers in the books.  He carefully bankrupted the crown with Bravos and the Lannisters. He was able to secure Harrenhal, and the Vale without an Army or real title. He is also working a very carefully planned debt scheme. The Iron bank has called in all their debts on Westeros and we know that the Iron Bank always gets whats owed to them which probably is scaring the hell out of people. Littlefinger is now buying up the debt from several houses in the Vale and collecting wards as well to secure loyalty to him and sweet Robin. We have yet to see if he is actually working with the Iron Bank, but we know that littlefinger has some connection to Bravos through his grandfather and as the Master of Coin he has to have some contact with the Iron Bank. But if LittleFinger is working with the Iron Bank you would think they would want him to push the Vale lords to support Stannis. I doubt Littlefinger gives a fuck about Stannis, he already had the chance to put Stannis on the Throne with Ned but we all know how that worked out. I pretty sure he is just chasing a prophecy to birth the Prince that was promised. Sansa's Bloodline and seemingly Harrenhal all have something to do with his plan.   

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I think the biggest reason is that LF always works under the assumption that someone is either watching him or eavesdropping on him.  As such, he is not only careful who he speaks to, he is careful where he speaks, as well.  He never leaves his correspondence sitting around (unless he wants someone to read it).   He started this habit in the vale, when he proved his worth to Jon Arryn. 

While I have no doubt that Varys has a couple of inklings...he isn't able to acquire enough information to warrant leveling serious accusations against someone of the stature that LF has managed to attain.  He hasn't managed to get his hands on a copy of one of LF's potentially incriminating letters, nor overhear one of his potentially incriminating conversations.  

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4 minutes ago, daccu65 said:

I think the biggest reason is that LF always works under the assumption that someone is either watching him or eavesdropping on him. 

Isn't that what he tells Sansa to do? 'Always play the part, even when alone.' Or words to that effect. I doubt he's ever out of character. He's certainly not going to hang out in a brothel, monologuing to a bunch of whores.

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5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Good point, Varys little birds only work if you do not know they exist and you discuss your plans in their presence . Littlefinger clearly knows about the little birds so he is super careful about what he says  and he is also a master of misdirection , he even tells Sansa that sometimes he  makes moves that make no sense just to throw off his opponents. As for the belief by some posters that Littlefinger has no plans that simply is not true . You do not become Lord Protector of the Vale and Lord Paramount of the Riverlands without some carefully laid plans

The thing is LF really can't have that carefully of laid plans, only a general idea.  For example when he had Lysa kill Jon Aryn I'm sure he had the basic idea that by starting a war between the Lannisters, Starks, and Baratheons plenty of lordships would be up for grabs and if he got rewarded with a good enough 1 he could marry Lysa and take over the Vale that way.

However getting any more specific than that means being omniscient, it would mean predicting Robbs move at the Twins, Renlys death by shadow baby, Catlyns chance encounter with Tyrion, etc etc.

LF seemingly offers to throw in with Ned, and I bet Sansa is the reason.  He then offers to Marry Sansa later when Cersei is in power, and basically my point is he seems to abandon his plan of marrying Lysa entirely opting for a new plan, probably of being lord of WF through Sansa.  When that doesn't work he go's back to the Lysa plan and keeps Sansa in his back pocket.

It really seems like he doesn't have 1 set master plan, but makes certain plans and reacts quickly to most other events.

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Neither Littlefinger nor Varys is as clever as they want people to think they are.  It's a confidence game.  Varys knows the power of information and always makes sure that people think that he's holding something back.  Littlefinger is masterfully opportunistic to the point that he can play anything off as part of his plan.  If he admitted he was flying by the seat of his pants, he would seem far less dangerous.

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