How is Littlefinger able to hide his plans from Varys?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

There is no doubt that he improved the Iron Throne's financial situation by creating multiple income streams that did not exist before he arrived but his improvements also left the Iron Throne's finances vulnerable to a situation such as a civil war .  

The debt that the Iron Throne took on while Littlefinger was Master of Coin was not really a problem for the Iron Throne as long as the income streams that he created were still open but once the income streams dried up then the Iron Throne was in a very difficult financial position, which i believe was Littlefinger's plan all along. 

Don't know what you are arguing for or about.  Could you please clarify?

[Blackfish Tully]

38 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

. Some important deaths have happened around him, Jon Arryn, Ned, Joffrey, Lyssa. Nobody suspects his hand in any of them? 

Why would anybody suspect Littlefinger in any of these deaths? He's covered his tracks pretty well and frankly he did not have a motive (as far as anyone knew)to kill any of them so why would he even be a suspect ? He was not in Kings Landing when Joffrey died , Jon Arryn died of "natural causes" , Ned was killed by Joffrey and the singer admitted pushing Lysa to her death . 

47 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

. Tyrion realizes right away the guy was running a ponzi scheme, but lucky for Littlefinger he kills Joffrey, blames it on Tyrion and he doesn't get the chance to tell anyone. Whew, that was close!

There was no ponzi scheme . Tyrion suspected that there may be some shady business in Littlefinger's books but whether he could figure it out was debatable.  It's not lucky that Tyrion was blamed for Joffrey's death , that was planned by Littlefinger . 

As for Varys , why would he try to kill Littlefinger when he had no idea what Littlefinger was up to ? why take that risk unless he knew that killing Littlefinger would help his plans? 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

6 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Don't know what you are arguing for or about.  Could you please clarify?

not arguing for or about anything just making a couple of points 

[Fox of House McCloud]

1 hour ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

See this is what bugs me about people who love Littlefinger. The fact that he's just so smart that everything he does somehow works out in his favor is just ridiculous.    Eventually something is going to blow up in your face. And I get it, it eventually will. But he's been at at this for years, nothing has gone wrong yet? Nothing? He's found a way to deal with EVERYTHING. Some important deaths have happened around him, Jon Arryn, Ned, Joffrey, Lyssa. Nobody suspects his hand in any of them? It strains credibility that he could get away with this for so long without somebody selling him out to save their own skin. How many dozens of people saw him betray Ned in the throne room? Ned's guys died but the Lannister soldiers never said one word? None of them? Janos Slynt never bragged about it to anyone? This is what I mean, sure he's crafty, but the stars always seem to align for him, which is just crazy. And as for Varys, he knows Littlefinger is up to something but isn't sure what, okay. But again all the people on his payroll, nobody ever sells him out for a bag of gold? And Varys isn't above killing Kevan and Pycelle because they're in his way, but Littlefinger gets a pass? Divine intervention is all I'm saying. Even if he's the smartest and luckiest guy in the world, to keep this up at this level for so long without getting caught red handed isn't realistic. An occasional move here and there, sure. But the amount of crap he's pulled without getting any dirt on his uniform is just silly. Tyrion realizes right away the guy was running a ponzi scheme, but lucky for Littlefinger he kills Joffrey, blames it on Tyrion and he doesn't get the chance to tell anyone. Whew, that was close!

I don't have time to write out a long response to this at the moment, but I do think you're kind of ignoring a few key points.

-LF is underestimated by the other players. We know how much he has been up to, but does anyone else realize? What reason do any of these soldiers have to talk about LFs involvement in things like Ned's betrayal? Why would Janos boast aboUT the role LF played? It fits his character to downplay everyone else's actions, and make himself seem more important in said events.

-Things have gone wrong for LF. The Sansa/Lysa interaction that led to Lysa's death was certainly inconvenient - he can no longer rule through Jon Arryn's wife, and instead has to deal with the Vale lords straight, no easy task. The reason he's so brilliant is because he adapts and makes it work for him. His plans are always shifting as events unfold.

-The stars might have aligned for him once or twice, but I think that ties into how everyone underestimates and tries to use him. Besides that, who's to say he wouldn't have a backup plan had things gone wrong?

I also don't think the argument that he's "bound to fail" eventually holds much weight for the believability of his character. It practically speaks to how careful he really is.

[Lost Melnibonean]

59 minutes ago, Greg B said:

@The Broke Howard Hughes For what it's worth, I agree with you. In my opinion, formed after rereads, LF isn't much more than a device the author uses to force or contrive desired plot points, sometimes retroactively. He's Martin's gardening spade.

No way, man. He's the big bad of ASOIAF's first act. 

[House Beaudreau]

On 5/23/2016 at 1:32 AM, Sullen said:

Littlefinger doesn't have any real plan, he's more of a reactionary player.

Roll the dice, see can be done with it.

It may seem like Littlefinger is lucky and an Opportunist but really he is mostly likely the one who starts all of the events in the books. he clearly has a master plan. I will try to lay out as much of what i have figured out about his plan. 

At the start of the story we know the Crown was in debt 6 Million Golden dragons. This is a crazy amount of debt, we learn that Robert loves drinking and Tourneys but even if they had a tourney the size of the one in honor of Ned every two month for years it wouldn't account for that much debt. We learn that their is way to many Gold Cloaks employed, and nearly everyone big or small in kings landing has been bribed by littlefinger at some point. Wages are being paid to Jailers that don't exist etc. LittleFinger does "invests" in businesses like wagons etc. and give money to people like the Antler men( who coincidentally Joffery flings over the walls before they are able to pay back their debts) Basically he is very carefully putting the Crown in Debt with the Iron bank and loaning out the actual money the have on hand. 

0. Even before the start of "The War of Five Kings" the iron throne was heading for a conflict with the Iron Bank of Bravos. We know that as early as ACOK bankers from bravos are starting to enquirer about the Iron thrones debt and they are sent to meet with Littlefinger. By the time AFFC arrives the Crown has no Assets to pay back there loans when the bank calls in all debt in westeros.     

1. Before Ned reaches King's Landing it is very likely the whole small council knows about Cersi and Jamies Incest. It is most likely that LittleFinger is the one that leaked that to everyone. Jon Arryn obviously knew and would spread the rumor, Renly was trying to find a new bride for Robert in the Reach and wouldnt shame his brother, the king by telling people his wife was cheating on him with her brother , Pycelle keeps his mouth shut and eventually lets Jon Arryn die because we know he is loyal to the Lannisters, Varys know but also keeps his mouth shut because chaos in the realm would be too soon for his plans with Aegon, Stannis returns to Dragonstone most likely to prepare for the possibility of questioning Jofferys paternity which only leaves Littlefinger on who could have started the rumor.    

2. The leak ultimately causes Jon Arryn to fear for Sweet Robins safety in Kings landing and looks to have him fostered to someone in the realm, most likely with Stannis.

3. Jon Arryn wanting to foster Sweet Robin gives Lysa Arryn motive to kill her husband, which she does with LF urging. 

4. Lysa writes the letter to Cat, blaming the whole thing on the Lannisters. LF knows Cat and her commitment to "Family, Duty and Honor." and knows that she will convince Ned to go to Kings Landing and discover the truth. 

5. LittleFinger Betrays Ned only because he doesnt want stannis on the Throne. 

6.   He negotiates the Deal with Highgarden during the battle of the Blackwater and keeps Stannis of the Throne again which earns him Harrenhal.  

7. He organizes the Riot in Kings Landing.( This one takes some explaining but if you want me too I will)

8. He teams up with Highgarden to kill Joffery. 

9. He kidnapped Sansa.

Once LittleFinger reaches the Vale he starts phase two of his plan. Which is secure allies in the Vale, collect Wards and control the two rivers that run nearly all the way through the Vale. by killing Lysa he becomes Lord protector of the Vale until Sweet Robin comes of age. It is at this point that the Iron Bank Calls in all of their debts on Westeros. An unknown number of houses have some real money problems with the Iron Bank which means that they will either default and be at the mercy of the Iron Bank or are looking for a new money lender. the Ships that Davos describes in White Harbor are Tycho Nestoris's Bravosi ships, Brieanne sees the same ships in Maidenpool. this means that the Manderlys have money problems and the Mootens or Randyll Tarly(but it doesn't matter who because Dickon is Promised to a Mooten) there are also Houses in the Vale that Have money problems. Littlefinger buys up tons of the Waynwoods debt in exchange for Harry the Heir. He negotiates the wedding between a Corbray and a Commoner in exchange for a huge dowry (which means the Corbrays desperately need money). Also both Lord Grafton and Lord Lynderly send Littlefinger a son as a Ward, which I assume means he bought up their debt as well. He tells Sansa that House Belmore can be bought when he is talking about allies in the Vale. The Corbrays, Lynderlys, Graftons, Waynwoods are all in attendace at the Corbray wedding and these are also the houses that sit along the two rivers running through the Vale. 

Coincidentally Bravos is directly across the Narrow sea from the the Vale. Littlefinger has everything in Place fro an Invasion of Westeros from Bravos and enough power in the Vale to be are real player in westeros.

I really think Littlefinger is Chasing a Prophecy like a lot of other Characters in the story. I think he see himself as Bael the Bard stealing a daughter of winterfell and that their child will some how matter like the Prince that was Promised or the Stallion that will mount the world. Harrenhal is important to this plan somehow maybe just because it was important to Rhagar Targaryen for some reason.

Let me know if Im missing anything or if you have your own conclusions to Littlefingers plans         

[black_hart]

Varys talking to Illyrio already before Yoren tells Ned can mean 1) very efficient information gathering and alternative distribution network ("birds" and actual birds) or 2) Yoren works with Varys. (They certainly interact more than occasionally: Yoren picks prisoners from the Black Cells and Varys gives him Gendry.)

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Why would Varys know anything about what Littlefinger is up to? It's pretty easy to keep your plans secret just do not tell anybody them. Clearly Varys knows Littlefinger is up to no good , he even states that several times,  but he has no idea what Littlefinger end goal is and unless he's a mind reader that would be expected especially considering that Littllefinger is on to Varys's "little birds"

Littlefinger's Achilles heel is his need to be the smartest guy in the room. Not just that, he needs everyone to know he's smarter than them. He told somebody.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

23 minutes ago, House Beaudreau said:

It may seem like Littlefinger is lucky and an Opportunist but really he is mostly likely the one who starts all of the events in the books. he clearly has a master plan. I will try to lay out as much of what i have figured out about his plan. 

At the start of the story we know the Crown was in debt 6 Million Golden dragons. This is a crazy amount of debt, we learn that Robert loves drinking and Tourneys but even if they had a tourney the size of the one in honor of Ned every two month for years it wouldn't account for that much debt. We learn that their is way to many Gold Cloaks employed, and nearly everyone big or small in kings landing has been bribed by littlefinger at some point. Wages are being paid to Jailers that don't exist etc. LittleFinger does "invests" in businesses like wagons etc. and give money to people like the Antler men( who coincidentally Joffery flings over the walls before they are able to pay back their debts) Basically he is very carefully putting the Crown in Debt with the Iron bank and loaning out the actual money the have on hand. 

0. Even before the start of "The War of Five Kings" the iron throne was heading for a conflict with the Iron Bank of Bravos. We know that as early as ACOK bankers from bravos are starting to enquirer about the Iron thrones debt and they are sent to meet with Littlefinger. By the time AFFC arrives the Crown has no Assets to pay back there loans when the bank calls in all debt in westeros.     

1. Before Ned reaches King's Landing it is very likely the whole small council knows about Cersi and Jamies Incest. It is most likely that LittleFinger is the one that leaked that to everyone. Jon Arryn obviously knew and would spread the rumor, Renly was trying to find a new bride for Robert in the Reach and wouldnt shame his brother, the king by telling people his wife was cheating on him with her brother , Pycelle keeps his mouth shut and eventually lets Jon Arryn die because we know he is loyal to the Lannisters, Varys know but also keeps his mouth shut because chaos in the realm would be too soon for his plans with Aegon, Stannis returns to Dragonstone most likely to prepare for the possibility of questioning Jofferys paternity which only leaves Littlefinger on who could have started the rumor.    

2. The leak ultimately causes Jon Arryn to fear for Sweet Robins safety in Kings landing and looks to have him fostered to someone in the realm, most likely with Stannis.

3. Jon Arryn wanting to foster Sweet Robin gives Lysa Arryn motive to kill her husband, which she does with LF urging. 

4. Lysa writes the letter to Cat, blaming the whole thing on the Lannisters. LF knows Cat and her commitment to "Family, Duty and Honor." and knows that she will convince Ned to go to Kings Landing and discover the truth. 

5. LittleFinger Betrays Ned only because he doesnt want stannis on the Throne. 

6.   He negotiates the Deal with Highgarden during the battle of the Blackwater and keeps Stannis of the Throne again which earns him Harrenhal.  

7. He organizes the Riot in Kings Landing.( This one takes some explaining but if you want me too I will)

8. He teams up with Highgarden to kill Joffery. 

9. He kidnapped Sansa.

Once LittleFinger reaches the Vale he starts phase two of his plan. Which is secure allies in the Vale, collect Wards and control the two rivers that run nearly all the way through the Vale. by killing Lysa he becomes Lord protector of the Vale until Sweet Robin comes of age. It is at this point that the Iron Bank Calls in all of their debts on Westeros. An unknown number of houses have some real money problems with the Iron Bank which means that they will either default and be at the mercy of the Iron Bank or are looking for a new money lender. the Ships that Davos describes in White Harbor are Tycho Nestoris's Bravosi ships, Brieanne sees the same ships in Maidenpool. this means that the Manderlys have money problems and the Mootens or Randyll Tarly(but it doesn't matter who because Dickon is Promised to a Mooten) there are also Houses in the Vale that Have money problems. Littlefinger buys up tons of the Waynwoods debt in exchange for Harry the Heir. He negotiates the wedding between a Corbray and a Commoner in exchange for a huge dowry (which means the Corbrays desperately need money). Also both Lord Grafton and Lord Lynderly send Littlefinger a son as a Ward, which I assume means he bought up their debt as well. He tells Sansa that House Belmore can be bought when he is talking about allies in the Vale. The Corbrays, Lynderlys, Graftons, Waynwoods are all in attendace at the Corbray wedding and these are also the houses that sit along the two rivers running through the Vale. 

Coincidentally Bravos is directly across the Narrow sea from the the Vale. Littlefinger has everything in Place fro an Invasion of Westeros from Bravos and enough power in the Vale to be are real player in westeros.

I really think Littlefinger is Chasing a Prophecy like a lot of other Characters in the story. I think he see himself as Bael the Bard stealing a daughter of winterfell and that their child will some how matter like the Prince that was Promised or the Stallion that will mount the world. Harrenhal is important to this plan somehow maybe just because it was important to Rhagar Targaryen for some reason.

Let me know if Im missing anything or if you have your own conclusions to Littlefingers plans         

First of all: LF does not cause the IT to be in debt. He did not cause the expenses, actually he vastly improved the ratio between incomes and expenses. The root of the debts predates LF (hint: Tywin's stint as Aerys' Hand).

 

0. Because Cersei didn't keep up with the payments.She outright refuses to pay anything. The assets were there, she just prefers to spend them otherwise, without negotiating about it with the IB.

1. Nope. Renly at least definitely did not know.

2. That's straight in the text, nothing "likely" about it.

A Braavosi invasion of Westeros is just plain suicide. A Braavosi invasion of any single region of Westeros would be just plain suicide. Each and every single region of Westeros has the (lasting) power to kick any Essosi city state's rear thrice over. Perhaps not to invade and keep territory on Essos because of the difficulty of projecting power far away from their homes, but on a flat plain. And this war would be fought with home advantage.

 

LF's motivations are linked to Riverrun and Catelyn Tully. The girl he was too lowborn to marry, too lowborn for her or her father to even consider him.

Sansa (among the other Stark children) is the daughter he never had with Cat, as well as Cat 2.0 he may indeed bone one day. Big emotional clusterfuck there. Nothing about prophecy at all.

 

14 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

Littlefinger's Achilles heel is his need to be the smartest guy in the room. Not just that, he needs everyone to know he's smarter than them. He told somebody.

That only applies to Sansa. See: emotional clusterfuck.

He never, ever bragged to anybody else.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

1 hour ago, Fox of House McCloud said:

I don't have time to write out a long response to this at the moment, but I do think you're kind of ignoring a few key points.

-LF is underestimated by the other players. We know how much he has been up to, but does anyone else realize? What reason do any of these soldiers have to talk about LFs involvement in things like Ned's betrayal? Why would Janos boast aboUT the role LF played? It fits his character to downplay everyone else's actions, and make himself seem more important in said events.

-Things have gone wrong for LF. The Sansa/Lysa interaction that led to Lysa's death was certainly inconvenient - he can no longer rule through Jon Arryn's wife, and instead has to deal with the Vale lords straight, no easy task. The reason he's so brilliant is because he adapts and makes it work for him. His plans are always shifting as events unfold.

-The stars might have aligned for him once or twice, but I think that ties into how everyone underestimates and tries to use him. Besides that, who's to say he wouldn't have a backup plan had things gone wrong?

I also don't think the argument that he's "bound to fail" eventually holds much weight for the believability of his character. It practically speaks to how careful he really is.

The fact that nobody is paying attention is my entire point. Nobody?  Really?

Its not unreasonable to think somebody would talk. Pretending like they wouldn't is either foolish or dishonest. How many times a day do YOU gossip randomly about insignificant things? Once or twice at least. It's human nature. You're standing around with a guy for a few hours everyday, you talk to pass the time. Sports, women, friends, whatever. Is it out of the realm of possibility to talk about the most interesting thing that's likely ever happened to you? Tell the story to guys who weren't there?

He always has a backup plan, that's my whole point. You make a plan on the fly it has to go off flawlessly or the entire world is either stupid, or not paying attention.

It honestly boggles my mind that you'd actually deny the guy has a horseshoe up his ass. I'm not denying he's an interesting character, but honestly...

[Blackfish Tully]

33 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

17 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

The fact that nobody is paying attention is my entire point. Nobody?  Really?

Its not unreasonable to think somebody would talk. Pretending like they wouldn't is either foolish or dishonest. How many times a day do YOU gossip randomly about insignificant things? Once or twice at least. It's human nature. You're standing around with a guy for a few hours everyday, you talk to pass the time. Sports, women, friends, whatever. Is it out of the realm of possibility to talk about the most interesting thing that's likely ever happened to you? Tell the story to guys who weren't there?

 

 

Who is paying attention to Littlefinger ? Everybody that should be paying attention to him and his actions are way to busy with their own plans and problems to worry about what Littlefinger is doing . Varys is trying to overthrow the government himself, the Lannister's , Tyrells and everybody else of note in Kings Landing and rest of Westeroes are dealing with multiple enemies or trials or invasions or are being killed so who has the time or energy to spend one moment worrying about a pretty insignificant guy like Littlefiger ? he is no threat to anybody so your point that it's hard to believe nobody is paying attention to him just makes little sense. 

[Fox of House McCloud]

24 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

The fact that nobody is paying attention is my entire point. Nobody?  Really?

Its not unreasonable to think somebody would talk. Pretending like they wouldn't is either foolish or dishonest. How many times a day do YOU gossip randomly about insignificant things? Once or twice at least. It's human nature. You're standing around with a guy for a few hours everyday, you talk to pass the time. Sports, women, friends, whatever. Is it out of the realm of possibility to talk about the most interesting thing that's likely ever happened to you? Tell the story to guys who weren't there?

He always has a backup plan, that's my whole point. You make a plan on the fly it has to go off flawlessly or the entire world is either stupid, or not paying attention.

It honestly boggles my mind that you'd actually deny the guy has a horseshoe up his ass. I'm not denying he's an interesting character, but honestly...

Not nobody, but the majority of the powerful players are focusing on each other, rather than the likes of LF/Varys/etc.

I wasn't saying they wouldn't tall about it, but why would they specifically talk about LF? Even if they did, how does this info get to the people LF in concealing his involvement in Ned's death from (namely Sansa, Cat and possibly Lysa)? The Lannisters know about his part, yet they haven't had any real reason to mention it to the Starks. They've actually had reasons to keep it hidden - LF's history with the Tully's in particular could prove useful. The soldiers themselves have no real reason to gossip with enemy factions rather than amongst themselves.

Is there a reason someone like LF wouldn't have backup plans and damage control ideas in the back of his mind? And I really think you overestimate the risks he gets away with. What plots should he have been found out on? What has he gotten away with when he should have been busted by some knowledgeable character?

IMHO, you're looking at the world as someone who knows exactly what LF is responsible for, rather than through the eyes of the characters you claim should see through him.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

3 minutes ago, Fox of House McCloud said:

Is there a reason someone like LF wouldn't have backup plans and damage control ideas in the back of his mind? And I really think you overestimate the risks he gets away with. What plots should he have been found out on? What has he gotten away with when he should have been busted by some knowledgeable character?

The dagger lie. He was lying to Catelyn (and second-hand) to Ned about something easily checked (or coming up in conversation) and he did it with Varys standing straight beside him.

And this lie set the wheels of the Wot5K in motion. Gigantic risk, gigantic reward.

 

But that's the only one.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

17 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Who is paying attention to Littlefinger ? Everybody that should be paying attention to him and his actions are way to busy with their own plans and problems to worry about what Littlefinger is doing . Varys is trying to overthrow the government himself, the Lannister's , Tyrells and everybody else of note in Kings Landing and rest of Westeroes are dealing with multiple enemies or trials or invasions or are being killed so who has the time or energy to spend one moment worrying about a pretty insignificant guy like Littlefiger ? he is no threat to anybody so your point that it's hard to believe nobody is paying attention to him just makes little sense. 

I don't get your point, nobody at all is paying attention, that's my point. If I'm a plotter, I pay attention to everyone so I know who is a threat.

[Blackfish Tully]

25 minutes ago, The Broke Howard Hughes said:

I don't get your point, nobody at all is paying attention, that's my point. If I'm a plotter, I pay attention to everyone so I know who is a threat.

who is this plotter you are referring to? who would see Littlefinger as such a threat that he needs to be paid attention to? 

[Edward Riley]

Varys employs the children for his information. All LF has to do is avoid the conversations pertaining to his plans around children.

Littlefinger probably knows the treachery of whores and would use them only for misinformation to confound and trap enemies. Also, he might just be keeping all the plans in his own head, some can do that.(It's a particular form of genius. One that's not mine by any means). It's like they have a file cabinet in their heads. He also uses plans that would be in the co conspirators best interest NOT to reveal anything.

 

[Fox of House McCloud]

37 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

The dagger lie. He was lying to Catelyn (and second-hand) to Ned about something easily checked (or coming up in conversation) and he did it with Varys standing straight beside him.

And this lie set the wheels of the Wot5K in motion. Gigantic risk, gigantic reward.

 

But that's the only one.

I'll agree that the dagger lie could have gone badly for him. However, there are a few things to keep in mind:

-Littlefinger names the blade as his own after Varys takes a look at it. In the TV show, if I remember correctly, Varys explicitly says that he does not know whose dagger it is. In AGoT, despite his 'exaggerated delicacy', Varys slices his thumb on the dagger. Littlefinger takes the dagger from him, flips it in the air, catches it, and throws it into the door 'with a practiced flick of his wrist'. All this is to say that Varys appears unfamiliar with the dagger, which LF follows up by displaying his supposed familiarity with the blade. A subtlety that may be absorbed unconsciously; regardless, the important thing here is that Varys does not know who actually owns the blade.

-The other betters are all Lannisters (Jaime supposedly bet 100 golden dragons and Cersei, an emerald pendant. Tyrion was the winner). Varys might investigate these accounts, although it's hard to imagine that either Catelyn or Ned would - Catelyn is learning this from her childhood friend (would she question her enemies about the validity of his story? I highly doubt it) and Ned would only learn of this from Catelyn. Interestingly enough, after Catelyn abducts Tyrion she mentions the dagger to him - and he responds by asking if LF told her Tyrion won it betting on a tourney (which he follows up by saying he wouldn't bet against Jaime). If LF had just made this up, how could Tyrion have accurately guessed what his story would be? More likely, they actually did have a bet at this tourney, on Jaime vs. Loras. Inquiry might prove that Cersei and Jaime really did make those bets (although they wouldn't have been with Tyrion, it's worth noting)

-Robert (the actual owner of the dagger) would likely not be questioned on any of this (as no signs/stories point towards him), and even if he was - would he remember it, among all the other weapons he's won? He clearly hasn't missed it since it was taken by Joff. And Joff would have no reason to admit he knew about this specific dagger, if he was even on the radar for questioning.

All that is to say that Littlefinger's  lie would have taken time to be found out, especially given the fact that the two main parties (Starks and Lannisters) would be very unlikely to go directly to one another and try to solve the mystery. Would Cat even believe Jaime/Cersei over Littlefinger if it came to that? Tyrion might have the ability to find the truth of this, but he's half a world away. All of this is assuming that Littlefinger's story would be actively looked into, rather than acted on - again, unlikely by anyone who heard it besides Varys.

I'll also admit that it was quite fortunate that Cat ran into Tyrion at the end - perhaps not as impossible as it might seem at first, but still unlikely. As soon as he was captured, though, that was the end of it. This launched the War of the Five Kings into Westeros, and things escalated to the point where the dagger story was really not at the front of anybody's mind. Unfortunately, we won't ever find out what Littlefinger's plan for Tyrion's arrival in KL was, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that he would've had something in mind, perhaps even discretely capturing him and turning him over to Catelyn.

Just my take on the subject, his plan certainly did have risks as a whole; however, it might not have been as lucky as it seems at first glance.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

who is this plotter you are referring to? who would see Littlefinger as such a threat that he needs to be paid attention to? 

This is YOUR damn scenario. YOU said everybody is plotting so....you know what, doesn't matter.

*** Excuse me. Before it becomes a semantic argument. Busy with their own plans and problems.

[House Beaudreau]

2 hours ago, Fox of House McCloud said:

I'll agree that the dagger lie could have gone badly for him. However, there are a few things to keep in mind:

-Littlefinger names the blade as his own after Varys takes a look at it. In the TV show, if I remember correctly, Varys explicitly says that he does not know whose dagger it is. In AGoT, despite his 'exaggerated delicacy', Varys slices his thumb on the dagger. Littlefinger takes the dagger from him, flips it in the air, catches it, and throws it into the door 'with a practiced flick of his wrist'. All this is to say that Varys appears unfamiliar with the dagger, which LF follows up by displaying his supposed familiarity with the blade. A subtlety that may be absorbed unconsciously; regardless, the important thing here is that Varys does not know who actually owns the blade.

-The other betters are all Lannisters (Jaime supposedly bet 100 golden dragons and Cersei, an emerald pendant. Tyrion was the winner). Varys might investigate these accounts, although it's hard to imagine that either Catelyn or Ned would - Catelyn is learning this from her childhood friend (would she question her enemies about the validity of his story? I highly doubt it) and Ned would only learn of this from Catelyn. Interestingly enough, after Catelyn abducts Tyrion she mentions the dagger to him - and he responds by asking if LF told her Tyrion won it betting on a tourney (which he follows up by saying he wouldn't bet against Jaime). If LF had just made this up, how could Tyrion have accurately guessed what his story would be? More likely, they actually did have a bet at this tourney, on Jaime vs. Loras. Inquiry might prove that Cersei and Jaime really did make those bets (although they wouldn't have been with Tyrion, it's worth noting)

-Robert (the actual owner of the dagger) would likely not be questioned on any of this (as no signs/stories point towards him), and even if he was - would he remember it, among all the other weapons he's won? He clearly hasn't missed it since it was taken by Joff. And Joff would have no reason to admit he knew about this specific dagger, if he was even on the radar for questioning.

All that is to say that Littlefinger's  lie would have taken time to be found out, especially given the fact that the two main parties (Starks and Lannisters) would be very unlikely to go directly to one another and try to solve the mystery. Would Cat even believe Jaime/Cersei over Littlefinger if it came to that? Tyrion might have the ability to find the truth of this, but he's half a world away. All of this is assuming that Littlefinger's story would be actively looked into, rather than acted on - again, unlikely by anyone who heard it besides Varys.

I'll also admit that it was quite fortunate that Cat ran into Tyrion at the end - perhaps not as impossible as it might seem at first, but still unlikely. As soon as he was captured, though, that was the end of it. This launched the War of the Five Kings into Westeros, and things escalated to the point where the dagger story was really not at the front of anybody's mind. Unfortunately, we won't ever find out what Littlefinger's plan for Tyrion's arrival in KL was, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that he would've had something in mind, perhaps even discretely capturing him and turning him over to Catelyn.

Just my take on the subject, his plan certainly did have risks as a whole; however, it might not have been as lucky as it seems at first glance.

There was also Aron Santigar the Master of Arms of the Red Keep, Rodrick Cassel is sent by Cat to see if he knows who it belongs too. Santigar surely knew the daggar was Roberts but he keeps his mouth shut. Santigar is from Dorne. If he is working for Doran Martell he would probably want to check with him before he says anything that could change the game that much. Or maybe he knows that Joffery gave it to the Assassin and is protecting him. Santigar is Killed in the Riot of kings Landing. If he was the only person that really knows that Littlefinger lied about the Dagger, then is it possible that Littlefinger planned the riot in kings landing? To kill Santigar and maybe kidnap Sansa if the Hound wouldn't have saved her?     

[Fox of House McCloud]

48 minutes ago, House Beaudreau said:

There was also Aron Santigar the Master of Arms of the Red Keep, Rodrick Cassel is sent by Cat to see if he knows who it belongs too. Santigar surely knew the daggar was Roberts but he keeps his mouth shut. Santigar is from Dorne. If he is working for Doran Martell he would probably want to check with him before he says anything that could change the game that much. Or maybe he knows that Joffery gave it to the Assassin and is protecting him. Santigar is Killed in the Riot of kings Landing. If he was the only person that really knows that Littlefinger lied about the Dagger, then is it possible that Littlefinger planned the riot in kings landing? To kill Santigar and maybe kidnap Sansa if the Hound wouldn't have saved her?     

Good catch; Aron Santagar is explicitly stated to have met with Rodrik Cassel earlier in the afternoon, just a paragraph or two before Littlefinger claims ownership of the dagger. Considering Varys (directly or indirectly) got information from Rodrik, it stands to reason that he might have seen Aron as well. As for Aron's silence... and interesting question. Perhaps he learned of what Joffery had done, and decided it would be in his best interest to feign ignorance? If he reveals that Littlefinger is lying, though, it draws attention to his own lie, the one he told Rodrik prior to Cat's meeting with Varys/Littlefinger. He can't out Littlefinger without outing himself.

As for the riot, I think it's rather unlikely that Littlefinger orchestrated it. He wasn't in King's Landing at the time, and I don't think even he would try to control a mob. Aron was pulled from his saddle, and the Hound came across four men holding him down and bashing his head in with a cobblestone - perhaps a boon for Littlefinger (if Aron did indeed pose a threat), but more likely the raw brutality of a starving mob. It's also fairly likely that Sansa would have just been raped/killed if the Hound hadn't come for her... spiriting someone out of the royal procession in a mob like that would be impossible, especially someone with a giant target on their head.