Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

[Corvo the Crow]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The point I was making there is that we have no reason to buy Renly's exact claim. He is pointing out the number of his camp fires, and there is certainly reason enough that people trained at this can make pretty good guesses how many people are likely to sit (on average) at such a fire.

But in Renly's case there is a pretty good guess that only a fraction of the people following him where actually fighting men. Renly was effectively on a royal progress through the Reach, entertaining the crowds. This wasn't exactly the march of a well-trained and determined army. There were a lot of actual fighters among Renly's men, and many of the lords who declared for him and joined him brought their men-at-arms and levies with him but that doesn't mean that they were the majority. A lot of people are living in the Reach, and many of those people would be willing to see the king if he was making camp in the vicinity to make a tourney or feat there. But not all of them would actually join him.

In addition, there are all the entertainment people. Renly's progress would not only have camp followers etc. of the normal sort but actually even more refined ones like mummers, actors, singers, etc. That also reduces the number of his fighting men, etc.

This is something I haven't considered before, yes Renly could have 100k so far including the camp followers but he already has 80k or so fighting men with him along with supposedly another 10k with Mace Tyrell, not counting the Storm lords who'll sit out the war and Reach Lords who are yet to join the main body of Renly's army;

Renly's march came to a halt at Bitterbridge,so he still has Tumbleton and Grassyvale on his road ahead, with possibility of other unmentioned places in the Reach.

His claim of twice as many as Robb's supposed 40k at bitterbridge is also true; Stannis had 3k men camped at Dragonstone, he later has 20k men after a fifth of Renly's horses left with Loras Tyrell, Randyll Tarly and Mathis Rowan and he has sent Parmen Crane and Erren Florent to bring Renly's near 60k men camped at Bitterbridge.

[direpupy]

On 12-5-2017 at 9:29 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Where is it said that is the reason they won? 

The impression I got was Ramsay won because Rodrik's host was young and largely untrained and scattered at being attacked. 

That is what ramsay says  it was a quote, he claims that this is the reason they won. Although the truth is probably a combination of a number of factors this just being one.

[direpupy]

On 12-5-2017 at 9:15 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

 

 

He confirms he was outnumbered five-to-one. Nowhere in the quote I gave does Ramsay confirms he is simply outnumbered nor does Theon say he is just outnumbered. Theon gaves a specific number and Ramsay confirms it. He doesn't say I was outnumbered or anything else to that effect that'd lead the ratio of outnumbering to vagueness, he simply confirms Theon's number.

 

Also I will post this again, read the quote below.

 

 

Is Twelve thousand foot and two thousand horses are three times of six thousand? No? What if I add another thousand horse to it? Still no?

(12 + 2)/6 = ~2,33 ; not 3?    (12 + 2 + 1)/6 = 2,5 ; still not 3? So why Galbart says Kingslayer has them three to one? Do they not have maesters up there in the woodlans of the frozen wastelands that is called "Da Norf" ? Is he an uneducated savage thinking 14 or 15 is 3 times of 6? What of Brynden? Son, brother and uncle to three generations of Greatlords, of Riverrun, uncle to wives of two Greatlords of two regions,  Knight of the Bloody Gate for many years and yet he also thinks 14 or 15 is 3 times of 6, confirming the filthy northern savage. Maybe a second son doesn't get maester tutelage? Well Bran did but maybe The Ned, the big softy of the North felt her second son should also get maester trained, who knows?

Certainly Ramsay, who is the bastard son of a northern lord and lived his entire life until  just two years or so before this battle and was kept a secret so had no access to a maester all that time would be much better at "sums", than a woodland savage who is the lord of a major house, right? Also he'd be much better than some second son of a great house. He says 3 times the 200 then it'd be exactly 600. Evil Genius that one.

Well I don't have Ramsays head for maths but let's have a try

2000/5 = 400? No can't be, Ramsay had 600! He says so himself while not saying so.

What if 600 x 5 = 3000? Could be? Well Rodrik says he has near 2000 so he doesn't even have that much but who is he to know better than Ramsayboy?

This would be a heretical thought, true, may old gods and the new forgive me but what if Galbart Glover and Brynden Tully know something? I mean, they aren't Jon Snow so they aren't entitled to know nothing... I hope.

So if 2,5 or even 2,33 can be considered 3 when comparing numbers...

200 x 2, 5 = 500 ; 2000/4,5 = ~445 Well these guys suck! They are like Jon Snow after all...

I'll have a try at 2,33 too just to further prove how ignorant stupid nobles they are;

200 x 2,33 = 466 ;  2000/4,33 = ~462   See I told you they suck! Numbers don't add up, there is a difference of ~4 men! Less than %1 but still it doesn't add up! Lord Ramsay, bastard of the mill on weeping water, I wish everyone could learn as much sum as you did in 2 years!

 

 

Nice try but again nowhere in the quote does he confirm 5 to 1 that is only theon that says that, no matter how many numbers you trow out.

Now maybe you interpet what ramsay says differently then i do but the way i read it he only confirms being outnumbered nothing more.

you are not obliged to agree just don't expect everybody to agree with you just because you trow out some unrelated numbers in a desparate bid to prove your point. Just say you don't agree and think he has less because you believe in the 5 to 1 theon gives and think ramsay is exaggerating how many men he brought, that is perfectly exeptible as a reason.

And as others have pointed out the numbers in the books are never exact anyway GRRM does not like to pin himself down on exact numbers because he likes the unreliable narrator thing. So there is always leaway in the numbers.

[Lord Wraith]

16 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

This is something I haven't considered before, yes Renly could have 100k so far including the camp followers but he already has 80k or so fighting men with him along with supposedly another 10k with Mace Tyrell, not counting the Storm lords who'll sit out the war and Reach Lords who are yet to join the main body of Renly's army;

Renly's march came to a halt at Bitterbridge,so he still has Tumbleton and Grassyvale on his road ahead, with possibility of other unmentioned places in the Reach.

His claim of twice as many as Robb's supposed 40k at bitterbridge is also true; Stannis had 3k men camped at Dragonstone, he later has 20k men after a fifth of Renly's horses left with Loras Tyrell, Randyll Tarly and Mathis Rowan and he has sent Parmen Crane and Erren Florent to bring Renly's near 60k men camped at Bitterbridge.

Renly also doesn't have the full might of the strength of the Reach with him. He certainly has more troops than anyone else at the point but I am sure he is overestimating or simply bluffing Stannis and Cat. You always want to appear more impressive to your enemies and potential allies.

[Corvo the Crow]

5 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Renly also doesn't have the full might of the strength of the Reach with him. He certainly has more troops than anyone else at the point but I am sure he is overestimating or simply bluffing Stannis and Cat. You always want to appear more impressive to your enemies and potential allies.

That is what I'm saying, he is bluffing to Stannis, but it's only a half lie and he could possibly achieve the number if he gets support from all the lords of Stormlands and Reach. As for bluffing to Cat, no, numbers given later by Stannis himself confirms he has around 80k at bitterbridge.

Dorne raising to help him is a bluff to but again only half a lie; We see later Doran has raised his levies and they are waiting at the passes. Renly knows this, there's a possibility Stannis also knows the Dorne is readying for war so Renly bluffs about them joining him. He may actually have thought, at least at one point, that they were preparing to join him.

 

15 hours ago, direpupy said:

Nice try but again nowhere in the quote does he confirm 5 to 1 that is only theon that says that, no matter how many numbers you trow out.

Now maybe you interpet what ramsay says differently then i do but the way i read it he only confirms being outnumbered nothing more.

 

I'll give the quote again.

 

Quote

"How many men did you lose?" Theon asked Red Helm as he dismounted.
"Twenty or thirty." The torchlight glittered off the chipped enamel of his visor. His helm and gorget were wrought in the shape of a man's face and shoulders, skinless and bloody, mouth open in a silent howl of anguish.
"Ser Rodrik had you five-to-one."
"Aye, but he thought us friends. A common mistake. When the old fool gave me his hand, I took half his arm instead. Then I let him see my face." The man put both hands to his helm and lifted it off his head, holding it in the crook of his arm.

If Theon just said "You were outnembered." and he said "Aye" it is a confirmation of being outnumbered. But theon gave a number, which Ramsay confirms to. He doesn't correct him, saying "Nah he had only three times as many" nor does he say anything else to that effect. He simply confirms what Theon said and tells the reason why he was able to beat Rodrik even though he was outnumbered five to one.

We also have some other army comparisons from Theon, He compares the number of Northman going south with Robb ( Twenty thousand or near enough that makes no matter) and those returning North with Roose (He had 4300 before Red Wedding) , only two in ten, return.

He compares Robb and Walder's sizes (though these numbers were known), saying Robb has five times the numbers of Walder (near 4000 compared to near 20000)

 

 

Quote

you are not obliged to agree just don't expect everybody to agree with you just because you trow out some unrelated numbers in a desparate bid to prove your point. Just say you don't agree and think he has less because you believe in the 5 to 1 theon gives and think ramsay is exaggerating how many men he brought, that is perfectly exeptible as a reason.

I can just say I don't agree, yes but I think that way because of the text, so I'd give the numbers. Your belief of he has 600 also comes from the text, which you gave to support your point.

As for the numbers I gave, they aren't completely unrelated; They are unrelated to exactly how many men Ramsay does have with him, but they are related to how the numbers/sizes of two armies in Westeros are compared; That quote on Jaime's and Robb's army size comparison shows us that even 0.33 difference can be rounded to a whole number when comparing armies

 

 

Quote

And as others have pointed out the numbers in the books are never exact anyway GRRM does not like to pin himself down on exact numbers because he likes the unreliable narrator thing. So there is always leaway in the numbers.

A point we agree on, which I have been trying to tell for some time. Numbers aren't exact, they are rounded  up/down comparisons are also that way.

As for the desperateness of my attempts; Well it is only desperate as long as there's no change of mind from the other side. A few posts earlier you were saying Ramsay has 600 men, here's a quote for you, now you have at least agreed on the numbers not being exact.

[John Doe]

On 13.5.2017 at 5:20 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

This is something I haven't considered before, yes Renly could have 100k so far including the camp followers but he already has 80k or so fighting men with him along with supposedly another 10k with Mace Tyrell, not counting the Storm lords who'll sit out the war and Reach Lords who are yet to join the main body of Renly's army;

I doubt it. When the whole army of the Reach was assembled at King's Landing, Tyrion said this: 

Quote

"Then take a good sniff, my lord. Fill up your nose. Half a million people stink more than three hundred, you'll find. Do you smell the gold cloaks? There are near five thousand of them. My father's own sworn swords must account for another twenty thousand. And then there are the roses. Roses smell so sweet, don't they? Especially when there are so many of them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it, I can't really say how many are left, but there's more than I care to count, anyway."

He wants to impress his enemy, doesn't really care about the exact amount and yet his highest estimate is only seventy thousand. Renly had considerably less than a hundred thousand (since Cately saw through his bullshit) even with the Stormlanders. So I really don't see how the Tyrells could be able to field a hundred thousand men, 

[Corvo the Crow]

7 hours ago, John Doe said:

I doubt it. When the whole army of the Reach was assembled at King's Landing, Tyrion said this: 

He wants to impress his enemy, doesn't really care about the exact amount and yet his highest estimate is only seventy thousand. Renly had considerably less than a hundred thousand (since Cately saw through his bullshit) even with the Stormlanders. So I really don't see how the Tyrells could be able to field a hundred thousand men, 

I am not saying Reach can have 100k on it's own, It may, or it may not. What I'm saying is Renly could possibly have over 100k, maybe even as much as 100k in foot alone, with the entire Reach and the Stormlands behind him, which he didn't.

As for the 50-70k figure Tyrion gives, you have to take into account that Randyl Tarly killed many men at bitterbridge and some men declared for Stannis, some of them declare again for "Renly" during the battle but thousands of them died, so even 50k Reachmen  is a huge number, especially after all those casualties. Also there's no mention of it but Randyl likely killed most if not all of the Stormlander infantry, seeing how he killed infantry of Florents, who are goodkin to not only Stannis but also him, which would make almost all of them Reachmen.

[direpupy]

On 14-5-2017 at 3:31 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

As for the desperateness of my attempts; Well it is only desperate as long as there's no change of mind from the other side. A few posts earlier you were saying Ramsay has 600 men, here's a quote for you, now you have at least agreed on the numbers not being exact.

I still consider 600 the baseline and think that the number is that or close to it so in that regard i am still at the same point as in my first post on this tread.

I also have not changed my mind on the quote he only confirms that he was outnumbered nothing more.

[Corvo the Crow]

A third attempt on Green Fork and Duskendale casualties, and through them an attempt on Cerwyn, Glover and Hornwood and possibly Tallhart numbers.

 

Cerwyn, Glover and Hornwood: Between 4300 and 5700 men as infantry, very likely to be on the lower end.

 

 

 

From previous attempts we know the following:

- Once he links up with Roose and Freys, Robb will have more than twelve thousand.

- During his time in his father's Van, Tyrion sees Karstark, Glover, Hornwood, Cerwyn and Frey Banners on the frontlines, so these are likely to get more casualties compared to other houses.

- After battle of Duskendale, Brienne of Tarth sees Glover, Hornwood, Cerwyn, Karstark and Tallhart banners. Helman was sent forth to join Roose with his 400 men garrison of Twins.

- When he's going to the Twins for Edmure's wedding, Roose brings Karstark men with him.

- When Roose is returning home, he has five hundred Frey Knights with him.

- Frey infantry with Roose are likely newly drafted, having no real arms and armor.

- Roose had ~17200 infantry.

 

Now some new information:

- Before taking Harrenhal, Roose had 10000 men.

 

Quote

"You do not have the strength to meet the Lannisters in the field," she said bluntly.
"When all my strength is marshaled, I should have eight thousand foot and three thousand horse," Edmure said.
"Which means Lord Tywin will have near twice your numbers."
"Robb's won his battles against worse odds," Edmure replied, "and I have a plan. You've forgotten Roose Bolton. Lord Tywin defeated him on the Green Fork, but failed to pursue. When Lord Tywin went to Harrenhal, Bolton took the ruby ford and the crossroads. He has ten thousand men. I've sent word to Helman Tallhart to join him with the garrison Robb left at the Twins—"
"Edmure, Robb left those men to hold the Twins and make certain Lord Walder keeps faith with us."
 

- Roose sends all Karstarks remaining in Harrenhal to Duskendale with Torrhen Karstark. (quote will be added later)

- A thousand Karstarks are searching for Jaime (quote will be added later)

- After Edmure is arrenged to be married to a Frey, Freys send fifteen hundred men to Harrenhal. This is after they have withdrawn their support. (quote will be added later)

 

Some calculations:

Men Robb expected to have:

Roob expects to have 12000+ , he has 3500 horse, Freys have at least 500 horse, and they sent fifteen hundred men to Harrenhal earlier, Roose, after losing a third of his men crossing the Ruby Ford, has 500 horse and 3600 infantry. He also has another two hundred with Walton Steelshanks.

(3600 + 500)x 3/2 = 6150, 6150 + 200 = 6350, Roose roughly had this number, before Ruby Ford.

6350 + 3500 = 9850. This is roughly the number of northman on Robb's 12000+.

(12000+) - 9850 = 2150+ This is the number of Freys in 12000+

I'm assuming he has a little over 12000, less than 12500 or else he would say near thirteen thousand ( Tyrion, for example says to Oberynhe has near five thousand gold cloaks, while he only has 4400)

So Freys have less than 2500 men but more than 2150. We know there are at least 500 knights remaining, likely a bit more if they didn't send all their cavalry with Roose. They also have at least 1500 infantry.

 

Infantry before Duskendale:

Roose had ~500 horses in his 10000. Twins had a garrison of 400 northman under Helman Tallharts command and another 400 from Frey's.

10000 - 500 + 400 + 400 = 10300. This is roughly the number of Infantry Robb had before Duskendale.

Roose later has 6350 men or so, of which 500 is cavalry so 5850 infantry.

Frey's later have 1500-2000 Infantry.

5850 + 1500 ( or 2000) ? 7350 (or 7850)

7350/10300 = ~0,71 or 7850/10300 = ~0,76  first one means %29 of the infantry lost, close enough to %33 it can be considered a third while second one means a loss of %24 not event a quarter. First Result makes more sense, which would mean Freys have not much more than this 1500.

Taking the first result, 2950 men were lost on Duskendale, of which 400 were Tallharts. This leaves 2550 men for Cerwyn, Glover, Karstark and Hornwood.

How many Karstarks were left after Green Fork or how many went to Duskendale?

Of 1000 Karstarks searching for Jaime, at most 300 were cavalry (there were some wounded left behind to tend the fires so it was fewer than this) which would mean at least 700 were infantry, which would leave 1300 Karstark men for Duskendale, if they hadn't taken any casualties.

 

Roose's army has, for Green Fork, a survival rate of ; 10000/17200 = ~0,58 among infantry alone and 10000/17700 = ~0,57 in overall.

Of the 1500 freys above, 400 were garrison so 1100 survived Greenfork, 1100/2600 = ~0.42

So Roose had %43 casualty overall and %42 among infantry and Freys had a %58 casualty.

If Karstarks, seen on the frontlines along with Freys had the same casualty rate, they would have 1160 casualties, meaning 840 survivors, which would mean as few as140 Karstarks going to Duskendale.

How many Cerwyns, Glovers and Hornwoods in Duskendale?

Deducting the ~150 Karstarks and 400 Tallharts, we are left with ~2400 men. Assuming the same casualty rate as Freys they'd have 2400/0,42 = ~5700 infantry in total.

5700 infantry among these three houses is plausible, as we see Karstarks bringing 2000 and Roose Bolton having 2300 infantry at most, which is highly unlikely.

 

On Roose's numbers:

While we have nothing to figüre out his numbers, we have a few pointers, Of 3000 infantry he goes to Twins with, at least700 are Karstarks, leaving 2300 for Bolton men and others. He would also likely have smaller numbers from other houses among these men as to not draw much attention, he is nothing but cautious. He would also have preserved his men, taking very few casualties, if any. Also when camped on Moat Cailin, Umbers and Karstarks were given towers as seats for the time but not Boltons or any other houses. Greatjon may have taken his seat because he was Robb's right hand man but there isn't any apparent reason to give Rickard Karstark a tower so he likely brought the most men so he was given this honor.

 

One final calculation:

If we take an additional 150 Freys (infantry);  (7350+150)/10300 = ~0,73 meaning %27 of the total infantry died at Duskendale. It is more closer to a quarter than a third but then again we know one and a third can be taken as two times, so, it is possible.

 

This would mean the following; 2800 men lost to Duskendale, 1250/2600 = 0,48 ; %52 casualty rate for Freys, 1040 surviving Karstarks if same rate applies, meaning 2800 - (1040-700) - 400 = 2060 Men from Cerwyn, Hornwood and Glovers. also applying the same %48 survival rate as the Freys, ~4290 infantry in total. This is also a plausible number, I believe the amount of infantry they have is between these numbers, closer to the second.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

22 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

On Roose's numbers:

While we have nothing to figüre out his numbers, we have a few pointers, Of 3000 infantry he goes to Twins with, at least700 are Karstarks, leaving 2300 for Bolton men and others. He would also likely have smaller numbers from other houses among these men as to not draw much attention, he is nothing but cautious. He would also have preserved his men, taking very few casualties, if any. Also when camped on Moat Cailin, Umbers and Karstarks were given towers as seats for the time but not Boltons or any other houses. Greatjon may have taken his seat because he was Robb's right hand man but there isn't any apparent reason to give Rickard Karstark a tower so he likely brought the most men so he was given this honor.

Are you talking about the 3500 men Roose brought to the Twins for the wedding? If so, this is wrong. There are nowhere near 700 Karstarks in that host. In fact, it is difficult to justify anything other than very minimal Karstark numbers among the 3500. I have no idea where your 700 figure comes from.

Rickard Karstark brought 2300 men South. Of that the 300 cavalry went with Robb, leaving around 2000 infantry in Roose's host. This is proven by Robb's quote when he learns that the Karstarks have abandoned him to hunt for the Lannisters:

"Near three hundred riders and twice as many mounts, melted away in the night." Robb rubbed his temples, where the crown had left its mark in the soft skin above his ears. "All the mounted strength of Karhold, lost." 

Note that this is after the Battles of the Whispering Wood, the Camps, Oxcross and the raiding of the Westerlands. So the "near" 300 is understandable, given that some of the original number would have been lost during the campaign to date.

So, that leaves 2000 Karstarks in Roose's Green Fork host. Now, the losses at the Green Fork were fairly heavy. And since Harrion Karstark was captured there, it makes sense that his men would have been in the thick of battle around him, to protect their lord's heir. So I would imagine significant Karstark losses at the Green Fork.

Then, when Roose meets Jaime at Harrenhal, he tells him this:

Bolton gave a soft chuckle. "Harrion Karstark was captive here when we took the castle, did you know? I gave him all the Karhold men still with me and sent him off with Glover. I do hope nothing ill befell him at Duskendale . . . else Alys Karstark would be all that remains of Lord Rickard's progeny."

So at this point, Roose has zero Karstark men left with him.All of their infantry went with Harrion to Duskendale.

From Varys we learn that Duskendale was a bloodbath.

The eunuch smiled a silken smile. "I have such delicious tidings for you all, my lords. Yesterday at dawn our brave Lord Randyll caught Robett Glover outside Duskendale and trapped him against the sea. Losses were heavy on both sides, but in the end our loyal men prevailed. Ser Helman Tallhart is reported dead, with a thousand others. Robett Glover leads the survivors back toward Harrenhal in bloody disarray, little dreaming he will find valiant Ser Gregor and his stalwarts athwart his path."

Harrion is captured again at this battle, and we know his men would therefore have been in the thick of the fighting. And even those who tried to retreat, were cut off by Gregor Clegane. So very few  if any of them made it back to Harrenhal.

And then Roose says to Jaime:

But to sell you he must keep you, and the riverlands are full of those who would gladly steal you away. Glover and Tallhart were broken at Duskendale, but remnants of their host are still abroad, with the Mountain slaughtering the stragglers. A thousand Karstarks prowl the lands south and east of Riverrun, hunting you.

So, those Karstarks who survived, were out prowling the Riverlands for Jaime. Clearly Roose has only the barest minimum of Karstarks with him. Where you get 700 from, as I say, I have no idea.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

A third attempt on Green Fork and Duskendale casualties, and through them an attempt on Cerwyn, Glover and Hornwood and possibly Tallhart numbers.

 

Cerwyn, Glover and Hornwood: Between 4300 and 5700 men as infantry, very likely to be on the lower end.

 

 

 

From previous attempts we know the following:

- Once he links up with Roose and Freys, Robb will have more than twelve thousand.

- During his time in his father's Van, Tyrion sees Karstark, Glover, Hornwood, Cerwyn and Frey Banners on the frontlines, so these are likely to get more casualties compared to other houses.

- After battle of Duskendale, Brienne of Tarth sees Glover, Hornwood, Cerwyn, Karstark and Tallhart banners. Helman was sent forth to join Roose with his 400 men garrison of Twins.

- When he's going to the Twins for Edmure's wedding, Roose brings Karstark men with him.

- When Roose is returning home, he has five hundred Frey Knights with him.

- Frey infantry with Roose are likely newly drafted, having no real arms and armor.

- Roose had ~17200 infantry.

 

Now some new information:

- Before taking Harrenhal, Roose had 10000 men.

 

- Roose sends all Karstarks remaining in Harrenhal to Duskendale with Torrhen Karstark. (quote will be added later)

- A thousand Karstarks are searching for Jaime (quote will be added later)

- After Edmure is arrenged to be married to a Frey, Freys send fifteen hundred men to Harrenhal. This is after they have withdrawn their support. (quote will be added later)

Some calculations:

Men Robb expected to have:

Roob expects to have 12000+ , he has 3500 horse, Freys have at least 500 horse, and they sent fifteen hundred men to Harrenhal earlier, Roose, after losing a third of his men crossing the Ruby Ford, has 500 horse and 3600 infantry. He also has another two hundred with Walton Steelshanks.

(3600 + 500)x 3/2 = 6150, 6150 + 200 = 6350, Roose roughly had this number, before Ruby Ford.

6350 + 3500 = 9850. This is roughly the number of northman on Robb's 12000+.

(12000+) - 9850 = 2150+ This is the number of Freys in 12000+

I'm assuming he has a little over 12000, less than 12500 or else he would say near thirteen thousand ( Tyrion, for example says to Oberynhe has near five thousand gold cloaks, while he only has 4400)

So Freys have less than 2500 men but more than 2150. We know there are at least 500 knights remaining, likely a bit more if they didn't send all their cavalry with Roose. They also have at least 1500 infantry.

We have a pretty good idea of the Frey strength:

“Not for long. Bolton’s bastard son will soon remove that little obstacle. Lord Bolton will have two thousand Freys to augment his own strength, under Lord Walder’s sons Hosteen and Aenys. That should be more than enough to deal with Stannis and a few thousand broken men.”

“In the west, Ser Daven Lannister had linked up with Ser Forley Prester at the Golden Tooth for a march on Riverrun. Ser Ryman Frey was leading two thousand spears down from the Twins to join them.”

“four hundred mounted Freys clad in blue and grey, their spearpoints glittering whenever the sun broke through the clouds.”

“Farther back came the baggage train—lumbering wayns laden with provisions and loot taken in the war, and carts crowded with wounded men and cripples. And at the rear, more Freys. At least a thousand, maybe more: bowmen, spearmen, peasants armed with scythes and sharpened sticks, freeriders and mounted archers, and another hundred knights to stiffen them.

According to the crown, the Freys have 4000 men in the field just for RR and Roose. Additionally:

• There are 200 guardsmen in the garrison at RR.
• We see Frey men-at-arms and crossbowmen at Darry along with the 20 Frey family members. On top of that, Jaime thinks there are too many people in the castle (Frey men, Lannister men, and FM). 
• Seagard has been occupied by some Frey forces at least, since the Mallisters are still kept as prisoners by Black Walder
• We assume Lord Walden has kept his garrison. During the war, he kept 400 men at the twins. However there was enough room and food for 800. Given the war is still active and the RL full of broken men and organized resistance, the 400 likely stands. Even if it substantially less, two identical castles plus the are going to need several hundred men to stand watch, patrol, et al. 

Given that we know how many men the Freys can field -- 1000 knights (or mounted men-at-arms) and near 3000 foot -- the numbers don't seem to far off. If I had to guess, the force sent north skimped on quantity as well as quality as it seems pretty evident they were sent without regards to their ability to come home. We know of some losses (Ryman + fifteen man escort, Aenys, Stevron, Cleos, ~50 at the RW, the WH Freys and possibly their men, and more I'm sure I missed. 2500 is far too low imo.

[Bernie Mac]

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So, those Karstarks who survived, were out prowling the Riverlands for Jaime. Clearly Roose has only the barest minimum of Karstarks with him. Where you get 700 from, as I say, I have no idea.

Around 500 seems the right amount of Karstarks with Roose. A few hundred does not seem notable enough to even mention. It seems his 3,500 is mostly Bolton, then Karstark and then an assortment of others. Given that we know the Houses that met at Winterfell it seems unlikely that the Boltons (or any Northern House) brought 3k south with them. 

 

7 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

Given that we know how many men the Freys can field 

I think the accepted 4k is possibly slightly wrong. We know there is almost 4k soldiers at the Twins in AGOT. But we are also told that is most of their strength, not all of it. 

"There's been some fighting between Ser Addam's men and Lord Walder's," Theon answered. "Not a day's ride from here, we found two Lannister scouts feeding the crows where the Freys had strung them up. Most of Lord Walder's strength remains massed at the Twins, though."

Now this might mean another 2k- 500. It is kind of a vague statement, but 4k is clearly not the cap of the Frey strength.

Another thing is does this figure also include the prominent vassals of the Freys? The Charltons are Lords in their own right and we know from the World book that they were once quite a prominent Riverland House. Now I assume they have diminished in stature over the centuries that the Freys have risen(as I imagine they are neighbouring lands) but they would still have some choice settlements that they would protected. There may well be another 500 -1k of untapped strength from vassals of the Freys that was not included in the original 4k tally at the Twins. 

 

Finally we know that the rich Manderlys have been able to augment their strength by being able to hire many of the Hornwood refugees. The Riverlands would have even more refugees than the North and the Freys the coin and thanks to the Red Wedding, the weaponry, to arm them. They may well have been able to hire many more soldiers since the start of the series. 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

16 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So at this point, Roose has zero Karstark men left with him.All of their infantry went with Harrion to Duskendale.

From Varys we learn that Duskendale was a bloodbath.

The eunuch smiled a silken smile. "I have such delicious tidings for you all, my lords. Yesterday at dawn our brave Lord Randyll caught Robett Glover outside Duskendale and trapped him against the sea. Losses were heavy on both sides, but in the end our loyal men prevailed. Ser Helman Tallhart is reported dead, with a thousand others. Robett Glover leads the survivors back toward Harrenhal in bloody disarray, little dreaming he will find valiant Ser Gregor and his stalwarts athwart his path."

Harrion is captured again at this battle, and we know his men would therefore have been in the thick of the fighting. And even those who tried to retreat, were cut off by Gregor Clegane. So very few  if any of them made it back to Harrenhal.

And then Roose says to Jaime:

But to sell you he must keep you, and the riverlands are full of those who would gladly steal you away. Glover and Tallhart were broken at Duskendale, but remnants of their host are still abroad, with the Mountain slaughtering the stragglers. A thousand Karstarks prowl the lands south and east of Riverrun, hunting you.

First things first, thanks for the quotes these were exactly the ones I was looking for. Now for the rest,

Yes he has no Karstarks with him at that point and both Green Fork and Duskendale were very costly, as you said. It is because of this, if a thousand Karstarks are prowling for Jaime, they couldn't have been at Duskendale, even the first battle, in which the army would have some organization, was a bloodbath, after the defeat and retreat the second encounter would Gregor would be even worse, leaving very few in smaller groups scattered around, not enough men to be a thousand. Now of course it may not be a whole thousand, it can be for example 900 or 800 and near 300 of this would be from the cavalry side of Karstark force, but even then this is a sizable number for a force which started out with 2000 men and suffered major casualties two times.

13 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

We have a pretty good idea of the Frey strength:

“Not for long. Bolton’s bastard son will soon remove that little obstacle. Lord Bolton will have two thousand Freys to augment his own strength, under Lord Walder’s sons Hosteen and Aenys. That should be more than enough to deal with Stannis and a few thousand broken men.”

“In the west, Ser Daven Lannister had linked up with Ser Forley Prester at the Golden Tooth for a march on Riverrun. Ser Ryman Frey was leading two thousand spears down from the Twins to join them.”

“four hundred mounted Freys clad in blue and grey, their spearpoints glittering whenever the sun broke through the clouds.”

“Farther back came the baggage train—lumbering wayns laden with provisions and loot taken in the war, and carts crowded with wounded men and cripples. And at the rear, more Freys. At least a thousand, maybe more: bowmen, spearmen, peasants armed with scythes and sharpened sticks, freeriders and mounted archers, and another hundred knights to stiffen them.

According to the crown, the Freys have 4000 men in the field just for RR and Roose. Additionally:

• There are 200 guardsmen in the garrison at RR.
• We see Frey men-at-arms and crossbowmen at Darry along with the 20 Frey family members. On top of that, Jaime thinks there are too many people in the castle (Frey men, Lannister men, and FM). 
• Seagard has been occupied by some Frey forces at least, since the Mallisters are still kept as prisoners by Black Walder
• We assume Lord Walden has kept his garrison. During the war, he kept 400 men at the twins. However there was enough room and food for 800. Given the war is still active and the RL full of broken men and organized resistance, the 400 likely stands. Even if it substantially less, two identical castles plus the are going to need several hundred men to stand watch, patrol, et al. 

Given that we know how many men the Freys can field -- 1000 knights (or mounted men-at-arms) and near 3000 foot -- the numbers don't seem to far off. If I had to guess, the force sent north skimped on quantity as well as quality as it seems pretty evident they were sent without regards to their ability to come home. We know of some losses (Ryman + fifteen man escort, Aenys, Stevron, Cleos, ~50 at the RW, the WH Freys and possibly their men, and more I'm sure I missed. 2500 is far too low imo.

I'm sorry I may not have been very clear on it, that was my estimation on how many Freys would be in the 12000 Robb would have after he met with Roose and Freys, before the red wedding and the supposed march on Moat Cailin. Which, I may add again, more or less correct with 3500 men coming from Robb and ~4300 men from Roose even after losing a third of his men crossing ruby ford.

From what I've seen so far, there are two major factors for how many men can/would a Lord raise. First is obviously how many men, preferrably not too old or too young, does he have and the second limiting factor is how many arms and armor does he have to equip his men, Tyrion and his gold cloaks are a good example, he had 6000, and may have raised some more over time but what would he have to equip them? All the blacksmiths were working on the chain. Say, for example if you have five hundred shields and spears but have a thousand men, you may not want to bring the full thousand as the improperly equipped will very likely cost you more than their worth; they would still consume supplies, would have worse morale from the start as they are dead for sure with no offensive or defensive capabilities, would mean more casualties on your side which would also mean fewer returning men from the battle for future harvests and more importantly more chance for your army to shatter and rout as they are taking more heavy casualties then they would otherwise.

So obviously near 3000 plus a small number of men skirmishing along the borders isn't the number of able bodied smallfolk Walder Frey has, it is the number he raised with the above considered and also as you pointed, he may now raise even more men with possibility of refugees and additional smallfolk after they have acquired new lands like Riverrun. But even after Red Wedding we see poorly equipped men with Roose which makes me think they have raised so many new men even with some new equipment coming from dead northerners, they didn't have enough to equip them all. They could only equip the siegeing force, which was obviously more important to them than Roose's battle and a portion of those they have sent with Roose.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Regarding the Freys my view is that the 400 Frey knights with Roose are veterans from Robb's army, along with some of the infantry. But the infantry mentioned as carrying pitchforks and sharpened sticks or the like are likely newly raised peasant cannon fodder.

So maybe 500 new raw peasants to add to the original 4000 Freys in Robb's army. Giving the Freys a total potential strength in the region of 4500, less whatever losses they have incurred to date.

[Corvo the Crow]

On Invalid Date at 4:43 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the Freys my view is that the 400 Frey knights with Roose are veterans from Robb's army, along with some of the infantry. But the infantry mentioned as carrying pitchforks and sharpened sticks or the like are likely newly raised peasant cannon fodder.

So maybe 500 new raw peasants to add to the original 4000 Freys in Robb's army. Giving the Freys a total potential strength in the region of 4500, less whatever losses they have incurred to date.

I'd say they raised more than 500 new peasants, because if that was the only number they'd simply be able to equip them from the dead of Robb's 3500. Except for the extremes, North and Dorne, equipment would be more of a problem than population would be, I believe.

We are given good, clear examples of this in the North, crops dying in Umber lands and Alys mentioning only old and the boys were left in Karhold or something to that effect. Umber brothers' two different armies are also a good example, one is mostly greybeards and the other is mostly greenboys, though both, or at least one of them had some veterans too if I remember correctly.

As for the regions not so extreme , I believe we are also given pointers though not as clearly; Riverlands suffered terribly from the war; Jaime first defeated Vance and Piper and later almost the entirety of Edmure's strength save for the Freys, Mallisters and some small lords between Twins and Riverrun, several of his major vassals' homes taken, small folk slaughtered  and yet he manages to gather 8000 infantry and 3000 horseman, so even with all these losses he still has enough men to gather a decent sized force. Frey situation also seems to be something along these lines, five hundred knights, which would be from Robb's campaign as you said, and at least a thousand infantry goes with Roose while they have another two thousand spearman siegeing riverrun, possibly a hundred or two at seagard, some smaller forces scattered around with this son or that and their own garrison, be that as small as 100 cause they are now surrounded by friends or still as high as 400.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I'd say they raised more than 500 new peasants, because if that was the only number they'd simply be able to equip them from the dead of Robb's 3500. Except for the extremes, North and Dorne, equipment would be more of a problem than population would be, I believe.

Why are you arming and equipping peasants you are sending off to die with valuable arms and armor?

Answer: You are not. Your men-at-arms are taking them as plunder or you are selling them / holding them to sell 

[Corvo the Crow]

Just now, Universal Sword Donor said:

Why are you arming and equipping peasants you are sending off to die with valuable arms and armor?

Answer: You are not. Your men-at-arms are taking them as plunder or you are selling them / holding them to sell 

Because they will fight, so you must give them something for them to be effective even if they are going to die.

Why send 500 knights, half of what you had even before taking losses, if they are going to die?

Answer: Because you are not simply sending them to die. If that was the case they could have easily sent some more men from the 2000 siegeing riverrun, keeping their knights to themselves.

Knights cost more than valuable arms and armor because they are valuable arms and armor themselves plus valuable horse plus valuable training plus all those gold you spent on them so far plus all the food you didn't get from a men training to be a knight instead of simply working the field.

[Universal Sword Donor]

11 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Because they will fight, so you must give them something for them to be effective even if they are going to die.

Why send 500 knights, half of what you had even before taking losses, if they are going to die?

Answer: Because you are not simply sending them to die. If that was the case they could have easily sent some more men from the 2000 siegeing riverrun, keeping their knights to themselves.

Knights cost more than valuable arms and armor because they are valuable arms and armor themselves plus valuable horse plus valuable training plus all those gold you spent on them so far plus all the food you didn't get from a men training to be a knight instead of simply working the field.

They will fight whether or not they are given weapons, so why give them weapons? The Freys clearly don't care if the peasants live. They were commanded by the crown to send 2000 men north. If they did, they could barely scrounge up enough men to do it. Instead it looks like they sent a token force of mounted men and a bunch of bodies. The Freys don't need their contribution to be effective. Roose needs them to be effective. That's the crux of the issue. The Freys weren't commanded to retake the north, merely to send men to assist Roose. Why send half of your levies North to battle a usurper in the middle of a short autumn? Does Walder Frey seem like the kind of guy who'd do that, especially with Tywin dead and gone?

[Corvo the Crow]

2 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They will fight whether or not they are given weapons, so why give them weapons? The Freys clearly don't care if the peasants live. They were commanded by the crown to send 2000 men north. If they did, they could barely scrounge up enough men to do it. Instead it looks like they sent a token force of mounted men and a bunch of bodies. The Freys don't need their contribution to be effective. Roose needs them to be effective. That's the crux of the issue. The Freys weren't commanded to retake the north, merely to send men to assist Roose. Why send half of your levies North to battle a usurper in the middle of a short autumn? Does Walder Frey seem like the kind of guy who'd do that, especially with Tywin dead and gone?

Why send your knights which is more valuable than levies? As you said Walder Frey doesn't need them to be effective. They may not care for peasants but they would care for knights as every dead knight will cost you a good deal of money to replace. They could simply have sent 200 knights to act as bodyguards for the family members there and sent men from their siege force in Riverrun, which wasn't lacking any men with all the riverlords and westerlanders there.

[Bernie Mac]

44 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They will fight whether or not they are given weapons, so why give them weapons? The Freys clearly don't care if the peasants live.

Off course they care if their peasants live. They need healthy farmers and soldiers. And of course it is in their best interests for Roose to win control of the North. 

Quote

 

They were commanded by the crown to send 2000 men north. If they did, they could barely scrounge up enough men to do it. Instead it looks like they sent a token force of mounted men and a bunch of bodies. The Freys don't need their contribution to be effective. Roose needs them to be effective. That's the crux of the issue.

The description we get in ADWD does not sound that dissimilar (or at least weaker) to the description of the Northern army that Cat gives in AGOT

Three days later, the vanguard of Roose Bolton's host threaded its way through the ruins and past the row of grisly sentinels - four hundred mounted Freys clad in blue and grey, their spearpoints glittering whenever the sun broke through the clouds....And at the rear, more Freys. At least a thousand, maybe more: bowmen, spearmen, peasants armed with scythes and sharpened sticks, freeriders and mounted archers, and another hundred knights to stiffen them.

The Frey army 

This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. When their lords called, they came … but not forever.

Robb's original host

Quote

 

The Freys weren't commanded to retake the north, merely to send men to assist Roose. Why send half of your levies North to battle a usurper in the middle of a short autumn? Does Walder Frey seem like the kind of guy who'd do that, especially with Tywin dead and gone?

Tywin;s death, or news of Tywin's death, is not likely to have reached the Twins before Roose set off. However are we told that is actually Tywin (or even Cersei's) orders and not something agreed upon by Walder and grandson-in-law Roose?