Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a complex issue here. Lady Webber has a lot of money, actually. She breeds the finest horses in the Reach, supposedly. Ser Eustace basically has nothing. Lady Webber also doesn't exactly call her banners or raises all her levies - she just gathers the men that are already in her castle plus, perhaps, some more from the lands immediately around them. Osgrey prepared for 'war' for quite some time while the Red Widow had no need to do so because, you know, Osgrey never had a chance.

We know that making all your seven sons knights is a costly - even ruinous - affair for even a lord as great as Triston Sunderland who rules the Three Sisters. That means lords do indeed not equip all their household knights, etc., rather they have the coin to pay them enough to keep them in their service or they have tracts of lands and other incomes they can grant them so that those knights have the necessary funds to maintain their armor, horses, weapons, etc.

On a smaller scale, it should be the same with more common fighting men. Those men fighting for their lords must be in a position that allows them to leave their homes and actually contribute something to the war effort - either in provisions, horses, or other resources, or in their own persons as fighting men (or both).

The idea that a lord has armor, weapons, or even horses for hundreds and thousands of his men is just silly. That makes no sense.

Professional soldiers - like freeriders, men-at-arms, guardsmen, etc. - most likely lack land - and thus a fixed income - and thus work for coin (when they are in service of a lord who has money) or simply for the right to sleep in the lord's hall and eat from his table. But in the long run the later would only work in war since without the chance of plunder this whole thing is not going to end well for such men. If a lord can't equip you with horses, armor, weapons, etc. and if he cannot pay you enough so that you can do that your equipment is going to deteriorate in the service of the lord and when you leave his service you are ruined.

Just imagine what would have happened to Dunk if his horses had died and his sword had broken in the service of Ser Eustace. He would have been finished.

This is an interesting issue indeed.

I think it is a hybrid answer, depending on the situation. Lords would have armouries filled with breastplates, helmets, swords, spears and other weapons. And they would use these to equip their soldiers. But up to a point. Certainly their household knights. Their castle garrisons. And a certain number of soldiers. But the extent would vary based on the wealth and power of the House. See Tywin's armouries, from which Tyrion equipped 300 mountain clansmen.

And similarly, the 200 Winterfell guardsmen would have been equipped by the Starks, as would Lord Bolton's 600 Dreadfort garrison.

But a Landed knight would be required to supply his own equipment, and the equipment of his men. Freeriders and hedge knights would be expected to provide their own weapons and armour. And so on and so forth.

But I think it is also clear that any great lord - and many not so great lords such as the Webber example above - would have armouries stocked with hundreds and sometimes thousands of pieces of armour and weapons. When Rodrik raised and trained another 600 lads from the Winterfell surroundings after Robb's host had already gone south, they were equipped from the Winterfell stores. They did not arrive with weapons and armour already in tow.

Same with the reserves Lord Manderly is training in White Harbour. He will be equipping them with spears, armour and basic gear. And cases where a House's supplies are depleted, they will be equipped with sharpened sticks and pitchforks, as in the case of the Frey reserves seen by Theon in Dance.

So in short, it will vary from scenario to scenario, depending on the House in question.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This is an interesting issue indeed.

I think it is a hybrid answer, depending on the situation. Lords would have armouries filled with breastplates, helmets, swords, spears and other weapons. And they would use these to equip their soldiers. But up to a point. Certainly their household knights. Their castle garrisons. And a certain number of soldiers. But the extent would vary based on the wealth and power of the House. See Tywin's armouries, from which Tyrion equipped 300 mountain clansmen.

Sure, up to a point. The Lannisters shit gold they should technically have spare armor for their scullions and pot boys if they so choose. But not the average lord.

We have a pretty good impression now how many men the average lord keeps under arms in his castle (a good example are the number of armed men Rhaenyra has on Dragonstone at the beginning of the Dance) and it is not that many.

While a lord should have spare armor and weapons for his core troops - guardsmen, men-at-arms, archers, and perhaps even household knights (although they might be supposed to see to those for themselves, with the coin and incomes the gracious lord has bestowed on them) the idea that the average lord has spare armor for ten or even twenty times the men he usually feeds and clothes in peace times makes no sense.

A house like the Freys is likely only going to march to a full scale war 2-3 times a century, perhaps five times. That's it. Why (and how) on earth would they keep armory, weapons, and other equipment for thousands of people in the meantime? The steel and iron would rust quickly enough, and you don't maintain what you may never need again.

Simple clothing in the lord's colors might be lying around in some castles, especially the richer houses.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And similarly, the 200 Winterfell guardsmen would have been equipped by the Starks, as would Lord Bolton's 600 Dreadfort garrison.

That would depend. I doubt the Boltons maintain a garrison of 600 men in peace times, so it is more likely that a huge chunk of those men are actually not guardsmen/men-at-arms/archers Roose keeps under arms the entire time but rather, for a huge part at least, landed knight equivalents of the Boltons and their sons and sworn swords, men Roose can trust.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But a Landed knight would be required to supply his own equipment, and the equipment of his men. Freeriders and hedge knights would be expected to provide their own weapons and armour. And so on and so forth.

And that's where the problem of the feudal hierarchy comes in. If, say, the Starks or Lannisters had only a dozen or a score of 'primary bannermen' who were the primary sources for men, horses, supplies, etc. then the real power in Westeros would actually lie with the lower houses who control the access to the resources directly.

And that's not really the impression we get considering that Westeros is very much in the hands of the monarch.

If each region was intricately split up in huge chunk of land directly controlled by the great lord - where his landed knights, yeomen, merchants, peasants, etc. lived - and the lands directly controlled by the smaller (yet still great) houses who also control a huge big chunk of those lands directly while the majority of those lands are in the hands of smaller lords, etc.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But I think it is also clear that any great lord - and many not so great lords such as the Webber example above - would have armouries stocked with hundreds and sometimes thousands of pieces of armour and weapons. When Rodrik raised and trained another 600 lads from the Winterfell surroundings after Robb's host had already gone south, they were equipped from the Winterfell stores. They did not arrive with weapons and armour already in tow.

That is the example of a really great house and a really great castle. Of course the Starks have enough resources to equip their guardsmen. They equip, pay, and feed those people. And the five cities should have even greater resources for that considering that size of the City Watchs of KL, Oldtown, Lannisport, etc.

But those are not all that good weapons. Guardsmen don't carry longswords and the like, no?

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Same with the reserves Lord Manderly is training in White Harbour. He will be equipping them with spears, armour and basic gear. And cases where a House's supplies are depleted, they will be equipped with sharpened sticks and pitchforks, as in the case of the Frey reserves seen by Theon in Dance.

Well, here the men directly from White Harbor should be as well-equipped as Lord Manderly can afford but if he really has any reserves of note those should come from the lands around White Harbor, not the city itself. And we don't know if those men are Manderly men or technically men serving bannermen and landed knights of House Manderly.

The Manderlys sent curiously few men to Robb, anyway, if you consider the resources of White Harbor. A lot of the wealthy men there should have resources there to join the war effort.

[Corvo the Crow]

On ‎05‎.‎09‎.‎2017 at 0:01 AM, Lord Varys said:

Well, here the men directly from White Harbor should be as well-equipped as Lord Manderly can afford but if he really has any reserves of note those should come from the lands around White Harbor, not the city itself. And we don't know if those men are Manderly men or technically men serving bannermen and landed knights of House Manderly.

The Manderlys sent curiously few men to Robb, anyway, if you consider the resources of White Harbor. A lot of the wealthy men there should have resources there to join the war effort.

I think it is because Robb ordered him to strengthen his defenses and these are all the men he could gather in a short time, most of them, if not all, are obviously from his own city guard, equipped in the same manner Davos sees Manderly's household guards are equipped. What few sellswords we see sent by him would also come from the city, being there by chance when Robb called his banners.

 

Northern mountain clansmen in Robb's army: ~300

They could have 3000 men according to Jon and From Tyrion chapters we learn vale clansmen, similar in culture, where they live and even their mounts have the same number of men. If 300 mounted clansmen go with Tyrion, it isreasonable to think a similar number would go with Robb.

[Corvo the Crow]

This will be another pass on Ironborn strength through ship sizes and number of oars and also a start for more seaworthy lords.

Below are all the ship descriptions by size of oars, may have missed a few though.

 

To Summarize:

Ironborn have ~400 ships (captains)  Ships of the Iron fleet are compared to lesser war galleys, and Theon's ship of 50 oars is not as big as his uncle's and father's, ships from the ironfleet which are thrice the size of regular longships. Regular war galleys have 100 oars so ships from the Iron Fleet probably has around 60-80, meaning the regular longships would be 20-30 oars.

With fully crewed ships, they'd have 12000-17000 (for 20/60 and 30/80) quite lower than my earlier thought of 25000 which lacked detail and was based on Theon's ship being a regular longship which is obviously not.

 

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Moreo smiled. "As you say." He spoke the Common Tongue fluently, with only the slightest hint of a Tyroshi accent. He'd been plying the narrow sea for thirty years, he'd told her, as oarman, quartermaster, and finally captain of his own trading galleys. The Storm Dancer was his fourth ship, and his fastest, a two-masted galley of sixty oars.

AGOT Catelyn IV

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Shuffling along the gallery, they passed before a row of tall arched windows with commanding views of the outer bailey, the curtain wall, and the fishing village beyond. In the yard, archers were firing at practice butts to the call of "Notch, draw, loose." Their arrows made a sound like a flock of birds taking wing. Guardsmen strode the wallwalks, peering between the gargoyles on the host camped without. The morning air was hazy with the smoke of cookfires, as three thousand men sat down to break their fasts beneath the banners of their lords. Past the sprawl of the camp, the anchorage was crowded with ships. No craft that had come within sight of Dragonstone this past half year had been allowed to leave again. Lord Stannis's Fury, a triple-decked war galley of three hundred oars, looked almost small beside some of the big-bellied carracks and cogs that surrounded her.

ACOK Prologue

 

Quote

 

The port was as crowded as Davos had ever known it. Every dock teemed with sailors loading provisions, and every inn was packed with soldiers dicing or drinking or looking for a whore . . . a vain search, since Stannis permitted none on his island. Ships lined the strand; war galleys and fishing vessels, stout carracks and fat-bottomed cogs. The best berths had been taken by the largest vessels: Stannis's flagship Fury rocking between Lord Steffon and Stag of the Sea, Lord Velaryon's silver-hulled Pride of Driftmark and her three sisters, Lord Celtigar's ornate Red Claw, the ponderous Swordfish with her long iron prow. Out to sea at anchor rode Salladhor Saan's great Valyrian amongst the striped hulls of two dozen smaller Lysene galleys.

A weathered little inn sat on the end of the stone pier where Black Betha, Wraith, and Lady Marya shared mooring space with a half-dozen other galleys of one hundred oars or less. Davos had a thirst. He took his leave of his sons and turned his steps toward the inn. Out front squatted a waist-high gargoyle, so eroded by rain and salt that his features were all but obliterated. He and Davos were old friends, though. He gave a pat to the stone head as he went in. "Luck," he murmured.

 

ACOK Davos I  Fury has 300 oars, last ships to be mentioned have 100 oars at most.

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Davos knew Fury as well as he knew his own ships. Above her three hundred oars was a deck given over wholly to scorpions, and topside she mounted catapults fore and aft, large enough to fling barrels of burning pitch. A most formidable ship, and very swift as well, although Ser Imry had packed her bow to stern with armored knights and men-at-arms, at some cost to her speed.

The warhorns sounded again, commands drifting back from the Fury. Davos felt a tingle in his missing fingertips. "Out oars," he shouted. "Form line." A hundred blades dipped down into the water as the oarmaster's drum began to boom. The sound was like the beating of a great slow heart, and the oars moved at every stroke, a hundred men pulling as one.

Wooden wings had sprouted from the Wraith and Lady Marya as well. The three galleys kept pace, their blades churning the water. "Slow cruise," Davos called. Lord Velaryon's silver-hulled Pride of Driftmark had moved into her position to port of Wraith, and Bold Laughter was coming up fast, but Harridan was only now getting her oars into the water and Seahorse was still struggling to bring down her mast. Davos looked astern. Yes, there, far to the south, that could only be Swordfish, lagging as ever. She dipped two hundred oars and mounted the largest ram in the fleet, though Davos had grave doubts about her captain.

 

....

 

Fury herself would center the first line of battle, flanked by the Lord Steffon and the Stag of the Sea, each of two hundred oars. On the port and starboard wings were the hundreds: Lady Harra, Brightfish, Laughing Lord, Sea Demon, Horned Honor, Ragged Jenna, Trident Three, Swift Sword, Princess Rhaenys, Dog's Nose, Sceptre, Faithful, Red Raven, Queen Alysanne, Cat, Courageous, and Dragonsbane. From every stern streamed the fiery heart of the Lord of Light, red and yellow and orange. Behind Davos and his sons came another line of hundreds commanded by knights and lordly captains, and then the smaller, slower Myrish contingent, none dipping more than eighty oars. Farther back would come the sailed ships, carracks and lumbering great cogs, and last of all Salladhor Saan in his proud Valyrian, a towering three-hundred, paced by the rest of his galleys with their distinctive striped hulls. The flamboyant Lyseni princeling had not been pleased to be assigned the rear guard, but it was clear that Ser Imry trusted him no more than Stannis did. Too many complaints, and too much talk of the gold he was owed. Davos was sorry nonetheless. Salladhor Saan was a resourceful old pirate, and his crews were born seamen, fearless in a fight. They were wasted in the rear.

 

...

 

The first line was in the river now, but the enemy galleys were backing water. They mean to draw us in. They want us jammed close, constricted, no way to sweep around their flanks . . . and with that boom behind us. He paced his deck, craning his neck for a better look at Joffrey's fleet. The boy's toys included the ponderous Godsgrace, he saw, the old slow Prince Aemon, the Lady of Silk and her sister Lady's Shame, Wildwind, Kingslander, White Hart, Lance, Seaflower. But where was the Lionstar? Where was the beautiful Lady Lyanna that King Robert had named in honor of the maid he'd loved and lost? And where was King Robert's Hammer? She was the largest war galley in the royal fleet, four hundred oars, the only warship the boy king owned capable of overmatching Fury. By rights she should have formed the heart of any defense.

ACOK Davos III

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"That is a river galley coming after us," Jaime announced after he'd watched for a while. With every stroke, it seemed to grow a little larger. "Nine oars on each side, which means eighteen men. More, if they crowded on fighters as well as rowers. And larger sails than ours. We cannot outrun her."

Ser Cleos froze at his oars. "Eighteen, you said?"

ASOS Jaime I

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The wood and the canvas had served her well enough so far, but the fickle wind had turned traitor. For six days and six nights they had been becalmed, and now a seventh day had come, and still no breath of air to fill their sails. Fortunately, two of the ships that Magister Illyrio had sent after her were trading galleys, with two hundred oars apiece and crews of strong-armed oarsmen to row them. But the great cog Balerion was a song of a different key; a ponderous broad-beamed sow of a ship with immense holds and huge sails, but helpless in a calm. Vhagar and Meraxes had let out lines to tow her, but it made for painfully slow going. All three ships were crowded, and heavily laden.

ASOS Danaerys I

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From Jalabhar Xho, Joffrey received a great bow of golden wood and quiver of long arrows fletched with green and scarlet feathers; from Lady Tanda a pair of supple riding boots; from Ser Kevan a magnificent red leather jousting saddle; a red gold brooch wrought in the shape of a scorpion from the Dornishman, Prince Oberyn; silver spurs from Ser Addam Marbrand; a red silk tourney pavilion from Lord Mathis Rowan. Lord Paxter Redwyne brought forth a beautiful wooden model of the war galley of two hundred oars being built even now on the Arbor. "If it please Your Grace, she will be called King Joffrey's Valor," he said, and Joff allowed that he was very pleased indeed. "I will make it my flagship when I sail to Dragonstone to kill my traitor uncle Stannis," he said.

ASOS Sansa IV

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"The Faith will have its gold as soon as we have peace." Septon Torbert and Septon Raynard had been most understanding of her plight . . . unlike the wretched Braavosi, who had hounded poor Lord Gyles so mercilessly that he had taken to his bed, coughing up blood. We had to have those ships. She could not rely upon the Arbor for her navy; the Redwynes were too close to the Tyrells. She needed her own strength at sea.

The dromonds rising on the river would give her that. Her flagship would dip twice as many oars as King Robert's Hammer. Aurane had asked her leave to name her Lord Tywin, which Cersei had been pleased to grant. She looked forward to hearing men speak of her father as a "she." Another of the ships would be named Sweet Cersei, and would bear a gilded figurehead carved in her likeness, clad in mail and lion helm, with spear in hand. Brave Joffrey, Lady Joanna, and Lioness would follow her to sea, along with Queen Margaery, Golden Rose, Lord Renly, Lady Olenna, and Princess Myrcella. The queen had made the mistake of telling Tommen he might name the last five. He had actually chosen Moon Boy for one. Only when Lord Aurane suggested that men might not want to serve on a ship named for a fool had the boy reluctantly agreed to honor his sister instead.

AFFC Cersei IV King Robert's Hammer had 400 oars, meaning Flagship Dromond has 800 or so. Others probably has near, but not as many.

 

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"What of your new dromonds?" asked Ser Harys. "The longships of the ironmen cannot stand before our dromonds, surely? King Robert's Hammer is the mightiest warship in all Westeros."

"She was," said Waters. "Sweet Cersei will be her equal, once complete, and Lord Tywin will be twice the size of either. Only half are fitted out, however, and none is fully crewed. Even when they are, the numbers would be greatly against us. The common longship is small compared to our galleys, this is true, but the ironmen have larger ships as well. Lord Balon's Great Kraken and the warships of the Iron Fleet were made for battle, not for raids. They are the equal of our lesser war galleys in speed and strength, and most are better crewed and captained. The ironmen live their whole lives at sea."

AFFC Cersei VII

 

He had set sail from the Shields with ninety-three, of the hundred that had once made up the Iron Fleet, a fleet belonging not to a single lord but to the Seastone Chair itself, captained and crewed by men from all the islands. Ships smaller than the great war dromonds of the green lands, aye, but thrice the size of any common longship, with deep hulls and savage rams, fit to meet the king's own fleets in battle. 

ADWD Iron Suitor

 

 

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The sea was full of sound: shouts and calls, warhorns and drums and the trill of pipes, the slap of wood on water as thousands of oars rose and fell. "Keep line," Davos shouted. A gust of wind tugged at his old green cloak. A jerkin of boiled leather and a pothelm at his feet were his only armor. At sea, heavy steel was as like to cost a man his life as to save it, he believed. Ser Imry and the other highborn captains did not share his view; they glittered as they paced their decks.

For the fun of it. After reading this, Ironborn don't seem so brave wearing armor on deck.

 

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"We will find traitors," said Ser Axell, "though it may be I could find some closer to home. Even in this very room."

Davos ignored the jibe. "I don't doubt Lord Celtigar bent the knee to the boy Joffrey. He is an old done man, who wants no more than to end his days in his castle, drinking his fine wine out of his jeweled cups." He turned back to Stannis. "Yet he came when you called, sire. Came, with his ships and swords. He stood by you at Storm's End when Lord Renly came down on us, and his ships sailed up the Blackwater. His men fought for you, killed for you, burned for you. Claw Isle is weakly held, yes. Held by women and children and old men. And why is that? Because their husbands and sons and fathers died on the Blackwater, that's why. Died at their oars, or with swords in their hands, fighting beneath our banners. Yet Ser Axell proposes we swoop down on the homes they left behind, to rape their windows and put their children to the sword. These smallfolk are no traitors . . ."

"They are," insisted Ser Axell. "Not all of Celtigar's men were slain on the Blackwater. Hundreds were taken with their lord, and bent the knee when he did."

Found this while searching for ship information adding for some more information on Stannis' strength

[Corvo the Crow]

This will be an attempt on Manderlys and Umbers through calculations.

 

Umber: 1500-2000 is a very likely range, possibly a little more

Manderly: 5700-7600, likely even more.

Though these are based on calculations more than book information, I am especially certain that Manderlys could have this many men at least because Freys whose main source of additional income (not from farming) is from a toll bridge which is on a place that is likely to have not much traffic compared to many other locations have raised at least 5600 men so far as we know (Freys have, in addition to their 400 garrison in Twins and another garrison at Seagard, have 2000 men with Roose 2000 men siegeing Riverrun after the RW. They have lost 1100 men fighting Lannisters.), so Manderlys controlling a huge amount of land and one of the cities and only worth mentioning port in North will logically be able to raise much more than them.

 

 

Great Jon's uncles have 400 men each, one has old men and the other has young boys with some  old serjeants. I am thinking they probably took as many old men and as few young boys as possible with them, meaning they had a bit above 400 old men with them. From an earlier post, people who are 50 or older are ~%15 of the population and 17 or younger are %36 (14-17 is %~7 of the population)

Let's say they have 450 old men in their 800, if they have taken all the old men, with no other information, their male population would be 3000 in total. Greatjon is said to have taken all the men of fighting age south  this would be ~%50 of his male population, which would mean 1500. If they have some more old men at home not capable of marching to die then their numbers would increase. For 400 old men it would be ~1300 men with Greatjon.

Say, if they have all the boys of age 14-17 with them, their total male population would be 5000 for 350 boys meaning 2500 men of fighting age. For 400 it would be ~5700 total and ~2860 fighting age. I don't think has this many men but with the calculations above I believe 1500-2000 men is very much possible.

 

Manderlys have 100 landed knights and 12 lesser lords sworn to them, from an earlier post, average medieval village has 25-36 men, taking roughly half as fighting age (17-50) it would be 12-18. We know Eustace Osgrey has 3 villages and Gregor has one, for some information on landed knights. Taking one village per landed knight as the norm, Manderlys would have 1200-1800 (peaseant levy only) from their landed knights. Webbers, a vassal lord to Rowans have twenty times as many smallfolk as Ser Eustace, meaning they have 60 villages worth of peasants. Webbers are somewhat well off, however, and Eustace Osgrey also had 3 villages instead of one so let's assume the average lesser lord has twenty times or so the number of average landed knight, it would mean 250-360 men. This would mean Manderlys will have 3000-4300 men from their lesser lords. 1500 men they sent to Robb was obviously from the city. If theu had sent all the city watc with Robb, they'd have 5700-7600

 

[Corvo the Crow]

Another pass on Northern mountain clansmen:

 

First, some information on the winter town, the place where the young of the mountain clans will go, among other people.

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Beyond the castle lay the market square, its wooden stalls deserted now. They rode down the muddy streets of the village, past rows of small neat houses of log and undressed stone. Less than one in five were occupied, thin tendrils of woodsmoke curling up from their chimneys. The rest would fill up one by one as it grew colder. When the snow fell and the ice winds howled down out of the north, Old Nan said, farmers left their frozen fields and distant holdfasts, loaded up their wagons, and then the winter town came alive. Bran had never seen it happen, but Maester Luwin said the day was looming closer. The end of the long summer was near at hand. Winter is coming.

- AGOT Bran V

 

The Karstarks came in on a cold windy morning, bringing three hundred horsemen and near two thousand foot from their castle at Karhold. The steel points of their pikes winked in the pale sunlight as the column approached. A man went before them, pounding out a slow, deep-throated marching rhythm on a drum that was bigger than he was, boom, boom, boom.
Bran watched them come from a guard turret atop the outer wall, peering through Maester Luwin's bronze far-eye while perched on Hodor's shoulders. Lord Rickard himself led them, his sons Harrion and Eddard and Torrhen riding beside him beneath night-black banners emblazoned with the white sunburst of their House. Old Nan said they had Stark blood in them, going back hundreds of years, but they did not look like Starks to Bran. They were big men, and fierce, faces covered with thick beards, hair worn loose past the shoulders. Their cloaks were made of skins, the pelts of bear and seal and wolf.
They were the last, he knew. The other lords were already here, with their hosts. Bran yearned to ride out among them, to see the winter houses full to bursting, the jostling crowds in the market square every morning, the streets rutted and torn by wheel and hoof. But Robb had forbidden him to leave the castle. "We have no men to spare to guard you," his brother had explained.

...

"How many is it now?" Bran asked Maester Luwin as Lord Karstark and his sons rode through the gates in the outer wall.
"Twelve thousand men, or near enough as makes no matter."
...
"Lord Karstark is the last," Bran said thoughtfully. "Robb will feast him tonight."
"No doubt he will."
"How long before . . . before they go?"
"He must march soon, or not at all," Maester Luwin said. "The winter town is full to bursting, and this army of his will eat the countryside clean if it camps here much longer. Others are waiting to join him all along the kingsroad, barrow knights and crannogmen and the Lords Manderly and Flint. The fighting has begun in the riverlands, and your brother has many leagues to go."

- AGOT Bran VI

 

"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

It was a tale that any northmen knew well. "My father's grandmother was a Flint of the mountains, on his mother's side," Jon told her. "The First Flints, they call themselves. They say the other Flints are the blood of younger sons, who had to leave the mountains to find food and land and wives. It has always been a harsh life up there. When the snows fall and food grows scarce, their young must travel to the winter town or take service at one castle or the other. The old men gather up what strength remains in them and announce that they are going hunting. Some are found come spring. More are never seen again."

"It is much the same at Karhold."

 

-ADWD Jon X

 

 

White Harbor, the North's sole true city, is the smallest city in the Seven Kingdoms. The most prominent towns in the North are the "winter town" beneath the walls of Winterfell and Barrowton in the Barrowlands. The former is largely empty in spring and summer but filled to bursting in autumn and winter with those seeking the protection and patronage of Winterfell to help them survive the lean times. Not only do townsmen arrive from the outlying villages and crofts, but many a son and daughter of the mountain clans have been known to make their way to the winter town when the snows begin to fall in earnest.

 

-TWOIAF The North

Less than one in five are occupied and winter town is said to be "full to bursting" before Karstark men even arrive to the town, however since they will stay at least for sometime there must still be enough housing for Karstark men and Maester Luwin says winter town is full to bursting after he says there are now 12000 men so I think it is certain they have enough space to squeeze some more men. Winter town is less than 1/5 full during summer and full to bursting when ~12000 (or ~9700) men are housed in addition to the peasants.

For 1/6 full(because it is said less than 1/5), winter town can house ~14400 people for 12000 or ~11600 for 9700

For 1/5 full (because it is said less than 1/5 but not said 1/6) winter town can house ~15000 for 12000 soldiers or ~12000 for 9700.

I will take 15000 as a rough figüre because even though less than 1/5 is occupied it is not as low as 1/6 and it was filled to burst even before Karstark men have arrived but seems they are able to squeeze them in so they could possibly still have some more people in the town.

So I will take the 12000 as the highest number the young of mountain clansmen could be. These mountain clansmen would be sons and daughters both so the young males can't exceed 6000 men children included. The count would also include villagers coming from other places as well so the clansmen numbers wouldn't be this high. There would of course be those who stay in the mountains but still of fighting age that they'd not go out to hunt and some young going to other lords.

Ser Rodrik was able to gather over 400 men (600 men from nearby holdfasts and Winterfell garrison of 200 minus a token force left) from nearby holdfasts so at least a thousand or so would be from these villages (including females and males not old enough to fight), lowering the highest possible number of young clansmen male in winter town to 5500 at most, not deducing the men Roob took with him earlier.

 

A look on the Vale mountain clans who seem to live in a similar are to the clansmen of the North, the few differences would be the Wulls, most powerful of the Northern mountain clans, who live off the sea, the Northern clansmen being under the "protection" of the Starks (not being hunted unlike the Vale clansmen) and perhaps how large an are they are settled in.

 

Quote

He surveyed his ragged band of brigands: near three hundred Stone Crows, Moon Brothers, Black Ears, and Burned Men, and those just the seed of the army he hoped to grow. Gunthor son of Gurn was raising the other clans even now. He wondered what his lord father would make of them in their skins and bits of stolen steel. If truth be told, he did not know what to make of them himself. Was he their commander or their captive? Most of the time, it seemed to be a little of both. "It might be best if I rode down alone," he suggested.

...

"If you have a mind to make yourself of use, I will give you a command," his father said. "Marq Piper and Karyl Vance are loose in our rear, raiding our lands across the Red Fork."
Tyrion made a tsking sound. "The gall of them, fighting back. Ordinarily I'd be glad to punish such rudeness, Father, but the truth is, I have pressing business elsewhere."
"Do you?" Lord Tywin did not seem awed. "We also have a pair of Ned Stark's afterthoughts making a nuisance of themselves by harassing my foraging parties. Beric Dondarrion, some young lordling with delusions of valor. He has that fat jape of a priest with him, the one who likes to set his sword on fire. Do you think you might be able to deal with them as you scamper off? Without making too much a botch of it?"
Tyrion wiped his mouth with the back of his hand and smiled. "Father, it warms my heart to think that you might entrust me with . . . what, twenty men? Fifty? Are you sure you can spare so many? Well, no matter. If I should come across Thoros and Lord Beric, I shall spank them both." He climbed down from his chair and waddled to the sideboard, where a wheel of veined white cheese sat surrounded by fruit. "First, though, I have some promises of my own to keep," he said as he sliced off a wedge. "I shall require three thousand helms and as many hauberks, plus swords, pikes, steel spearheads, maces, battleaxes, gauntlets, gorgets, greaves, breastplates, wagons to carry all this—"

- AGOT Tyrion VII

Here are the names of the most notable clans of the Mountains of the Moon, as reported by the Archmaester Arnel in his Mountain and Vale:

• Stone Crows
• Milk Snakes
• Sons of the Mist
• Moon Brothers
• Black Ears
• Sons of the Tree
• Burned Men
• Howlers
• Redsmiths
• Painted Dogs

Lesser clans exist as well, often being formed after some feud splinters one clan, but these usually last only a short time before they are swallowed up by rivals or wiped out by the knights of the Vale.

There are ten notable clans and perhaps some lesser ones. The fact that lesser clans can be formed means there's room for growth. It is not the lack of land that no other major clans exist, it is because they can't survive long enough to grow to strength. With more safety, stability and possibly more land which includes coasts that allow fishing, ~40 mountain clans of the North of which 7 are named and at least 5 or 6 are somewhat powerful (5 has maesters and Jon marked the Flints as important along with Wulls who have maesters), Northern mountain cansmen would have more men than the 3000 of their Vale counterparts

 

Now for some information on Northern mountain clansmen. Even after sending men to Robb, they can raise two or three thousand men among ~40 clans according to Jon. Jon likely has no knowledge of knowing how many men went with Robb, but he most likely knows how many men they can raise at most and will certainly have some idea on how many men they would have at most that are fit to sent off to battle (how many can be equipped properly; clan champions fight).

Quote

"Two-thirds of my strength was on the north side when the Lannisters attacked those still waiting to cross. Norrey, Locke, and Burley men chiefly, with Ser Wylis Manderly and his White Harbor knights as rear guard. I was on the wrong side of the Trident, powerless to help them. Ser Wylis rallied our men as best he could, but Gregor Clegane attacked with heavy horse and drove them into the river. As many drowned as were cut down. More fled, and the rest were taken captive." 

...

"I left six hundred men at the ford. Spearmen from the rills, the mountains, and the White Knife, a hundred Hornwood longbows, some freeriders and hedge knights, and a strong force of Stout and Cerwyn men to stiffen them. Ronnel Stout and Ser Kyle Condon have the command. Ser Kyle was the late Lord Cerwyn's right hand, as I'm sure you know, my lady. Lions swim no better than wolves. So long as the river runs high, Ser Gregor will not cross."

- ACOK Catelyn VI

 

She would have looked for the direwolf of Stark, or maybe the Cerwyn battleaxe or the Glover fist. But in the gloom of night all the colors looked grey.

...

"Shouldn't we stop?" she asked Sandor Clegane. "There's northmen in the tents." She knew them by their beards, by their faces, by their cloaks of bearskin and sealskin, by their half-heard toasts and the songs they sang; Karstarks and Umbers and men of the mountain clans. "I bet there are Winterfell men too." Her father's men, the Young Wolf's men, the direwolves of Stark.

- ACOK Arya X

 

The crossbows took Donnel Locke, Owen Norrey, and half a dozen more.

-ACOK Catelyn VII

 

Maester Aemon had sent a lot of birds . . . not to one king, but to four. Wildlings at the gate, the message ran. The realm in danger. Send all the help you can to Castle Black. Even as far as Oldtown and the Citadel the ravens flew, and to half a hundred mighty lords in their castles. The northern lords offered their best hope, so to them Aemon had sent two birds. To the Umbers and the Boltons, to Castle Cerwyn and Torrhen's Square, Karhold and Deepwood Motte, to Bear Island, Oldcastle, Widow's Watch, White Harbor, Barrowton, and the Rills, to the mountain fastnesses of the Liddles, the Burleys, the Norreys, the Harclays, and the Wulls, the black birds brought their plea. Wildlings at the gate. The north in danger. Come with all your strength.

-ASOS Jon VII

From the last paragraph we know that at the very least these five clans are powerful(rich, but money mostly comes from how much land you have so does man power) enough to have maesters and to be worth mention. As a side note there are forty or so northern lords with maesters as we learn from Stannis sending letters (may add quote later)

As a side note, Arya sees thousands of men but only hundreds of horses; noticable absence of Robbs 3500 horse makes me think the Umber men Arya sees may have been part of Roose's host.

Now time for some calculations; Roose lost ~2000 men crossing the Trident, chiefly Norrey, Locke and Burley. Aside from the Manderly rearguard, there wouldn't be many others to be worth mentioning since they weren't mentioned. We also know not all Lockes or mountain clansmen were on the southern bank since Roose leaves some as rear guard, Donnel Locke and Owen Norrey has managed to make it to the Twins and also there are still enough mountain clansmen for Arya to take notice of them along with Umbers and Karstarks; she doesn't notice any Glover fists or Cerwyn battle axes, for example but these three groups are noticed.

I will apply the Frey casualty rate to Manderlys; Freys had 2600 footmen but are down to 1500, Manderlys would have ~850 men remaining on the southern side with the same casualty rate.

If the White Knife men Roose left as rearguard was men sworn to Manderlys (we only know of two lords with lands near White Knife, Hornwood and Manderly). I will assume 100 White knife spearmen because of a few things; we have 100 bowmen, and unmentioned amount of spearmen from three regions, free riders and swordsmen from two lords totalling to 600, free riders are probably from those Manderlys brought and very few (there were 200 lances, swordsmen on horse and free riders in Manderly host) only composition I can think of which had  bowmen is Umber host with 300 spears and 100 bows and Tallhart garrison with 200 swords and 200 archers. So this rearguards composition would roughly be 100 bows, 300 spears a little over 100 swordsmen and some freeriders. This would lower the number of possible Manderlys on the other bank to 750.

Almost all the remaining ~1250 would be Burley, Norrey, Locke, if not all of them, since some of the men from these lords have already crossed.

 

Lockes are among the bannermen that joined Robb after the initial gathering at Winterfell. Excluding Manderlys, these houses are Flints of Widow's Watch and Flint's Finger, Dustins, Ryswells and Lockes. These lords have brought 6000 men altogether, with an average of 1200 per house, which seems to be more or less in line with Manderlys bringing 1500.

Will continue in a later time.

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

snip

I just think your mobilization ratios are completely unrealistic. The armies we see should represent 1%-2% of the populations of their respective regions. Instead, you are interpreting them as being all of the able bodied men, which would represent around 15-20% of the population. That is not historically accurate.

By your calculation, there would be maybe 200,000 people in the North if they can raise around 30-40k fighters, instead of the 4-5 million that is more likely. Heck, even the wildlings had more than 100,000 people before they started their march to the Wall. And they don't even have a functioning medieval society.

Edit

So if we look at the entire North, and assume an average village size of 50 people, to use a roundish figure, then a population of 5 million would require one hundred thousand villages spread across the North. This would mean a small village roughly every 10 square miles. Of course, this spread would not be even. Instead, you would get vast areas with no or very sparsely located villages, and then more fertile areas where you have a bunch of villages clumped together.

In any case, with the Manderly lands likely being the most populated part of the North, one would assume a more dense distribution of villages in their lands than the average (say double to three times the average Northern density). Meaning if they rule say 40,000 square miles, you are probably talking about 8000-12,000 small villages spread through their lands. In fact, I would argue their population is well above 500,000, considering the level of economic development along the White Knife compared to elsewhere in the North.

[Corvo the Crow]

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I just think your mobilization ratios are completely unrealistic. The armies we see should represent 1%-2% of the populations of their respective regions. Instead, you are interpreting them as being all of the able bodied men, which would represent around 15-20% of the population. That is not historically accurate.

 

They aren't my mobilization ratios, they are what is written in the book. "All the able bodied men are gone" "Only cripples and boys are left behind" and such are  common when northerners talk about the mobilization in the books.

One that I can remember below

Aye, but now you're almost six-and-ten, and we must pray you will know how to charm your new husband. "My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"

"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

 

It is the same with Umbers with their old men and young buys(plus a few crippled serjeants)

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

They aren't my mobilization ratios, they are what is written in the book. "All the able bodied men are gone" "Only cripples and boys are left behind" and such are  common when northerners talk about the mobilization in the books.

One that I can remember below

Aye, but now you're almost six-and-ten, and we must pray you will know how to charm your new husband. "My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"

"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

 

It is the same with Umbers with their old men and young buys(plus a few crippled serjeants)

 

Yeah, note that this is at Karhold. One settlement out of the thousands of settlements in the Karstark lands. It cannot realistically mean anything else.

Martin has outright stated that the reason the tiny Iron Isles can raise the armies that they do is because they have a much higher mobilization rate than the mainland kingdoms, because of their martial culture. The mainland kingdoms have a small warrior class supported by a much larger peasant base. The Ironborn, in turn, are the ones where pretty much every able bodied male is a warrior. This is not so in the "greenlands".

Look at the very example that you used, which is House Osgrey. He has three villages. Presumably in the order of 150 people or so altogether, and yet he raises only something like 8 men, of which one is a lackwit. And that is not the number he can arm or project beyond his own lands. Just the ones he can drag the mile or two to his keep for a quick get together.

If it was all the able bodied men, you would be talking about 30 men or thereabouts.

[Corvo the Crow]

18 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yeah, note that this is at Karhold. One settlement out of the thousands of settlements in the Karstark lands. It cannot realistically mean anything else.

Martin has outright stated that the reason the tiny Iron Isles can raise the armies that they do is because they have a much higher mobilization rate than the mainland kingdoms, because of their martial culture. The mainland kingdoms have a small warrior class supported by a much larger peasant base. The Ironborn, in turn, are the ones where pretty much every able bodied male is a warrior. This is not so in the "greenlands".

Look at the very example that you used, which is House Osgrey. He has three villages. Presumably in the order of 150 people or so altogether, and yet he raises only something like 8 men, of which one is a lackwit. And that is not the number he can arm or project beyond his own lands. Just the ones he can drag the mile or two to his keep for a quick get together.

If it was all the able bodied men, you would be talking about 30 men or thereabouts.

For clarification, I am not suggesting that all the westerosi lords have a rather high mobilization, as you have pointed out by my Osgrey calculations. I am suggesting that the Northern lords, or at least northernmost  northern lords like Umbers and Karstarks and likely mountain clansmen, if they "mobilize" for an in region war like the one Stannis is waging, would have a higher mobilization than the average lord.

Apart from Osgrey, just look at my calculations on Freys to see that I am not suggesting very high mobilization rates; they have possibly lost some small amount of horse but things are different on their foot levy;almost half of the men they have in the field is göne but still at the end of AFFC we see them having over 3000 foot (2000 in riverlands and more than 1000 in North) even though they had only 1500 left in the field shortly before RW and this is not counting the garrison they'd still have in the Twins and now have in Seagard. Possibly because winter is really coming and now they have gathered their harvest they can both afford to send out more men and would also benefit from it with fewer mouths to feed come winter and possible spoils of war if this army manages to return home.

Another example for the rate of mobilization not being high in general would come again from the Riverlands, this time in it's entirety; Edmure says once he has gathered his strength he'd have 3000 horse and 8000 foot. This 8000 foot would almost entirely come from newly raised men because in medieval times if you aren't a noble or a knight, or in other words if you aren't worth a ransom, you aren't valuable as a captive, in fact quite the opposite since you'd waste resources in the form of supplies and people to guard you, so most of the time you are just killed. A possible example, again from Riverlands is Mallisters; Walder Frey hasn't bestirred himself to fight but we do not hear the same for the Mallisters, only that they are the only house worth mentioning that still hold their castle. Yet we know Mallisters are among the contributers that swell Robb's number to 6000 and the only one to be named at that, others being what few remnants of Edmure's army that have crossed the Redfork and a few petty lords.

 

As for Ironborn, no they don't actually have a high mobilization rate in general what we see with Balon is a one time thing for all we know and Euron is a continuation of it and this is both because they are able to since they don't have much farming anyway and they actually need to have a high mobilization if they want to have any effect; as you can see by my last Ironborn post, even with all the strength of Iron Isles they have perhaps a little over 400 ships once two lords who haven't arrived join the near 400. Most of these ships don't even have 50 men, Theon's is very likely a bigger than average ship since it is compared to his father's and uncles, which are ships of the Iron fleet that are thrice the size of regular longships but only comparable to galleys, or smaller war galleys of the non Iron-born lords.

 

Edit: For perhaps a better understanding of a mobilization, I'll add something I've read on how medieval english armies were formed, though I am unable to give the source now.

Fryd, the army, was levied as one men per five hydes, land enough to sustain a single family. This men was equipped with armor, weapon and shield and a horse for travelling, the cost of these distributed among five familes since it was expensive to fully equip even a single man but it was also more trouble than it's worth to levy unarmed and unarmored men. Since Westeros is largely based on War of the Roses England, I think mobilization rates would be somewhere along this for most of the lords.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

For clarification, I am not suggesting that all the westerosi lords have a rather high mobilization, as you have pointed out by my Osgrey calculations. I am suggesting that the Northern lords, or at least northernmost  northern lords like Umbers and Karstarks and likely mountain clansmen, if they "mobilize" for an in region war like the one Stannis is waging, would have a higher mobilization than the average lord.

Apart from Osgrey, just look at my calculations on Freys to see that I am not suggesting very high mobilization rates; they have possibly lost some small amount of horse but things are different on their foot levy;almost half of the men they have in the field is göne but still at the end of AFFC we see them having over 3000 foot (2000 in riverlands and more than 1000 in North) even though they had only 1500 left in the field shortly before RW and this is not counting the garrison they'd still have in the Twins and now have in Seagard. Possibly because winter is really coming and now they have gathered their harvest they can both afford to send out more men and would also benefit from it with fewer mouths to feed come winter and possible spoils of war if this army manages to return home.

Another example for the rate of mobilization not being high in general would come again from the Riverlands, this time in it's entirety; Edmure says once he has gathered his strength he'd have 3000 horse and 8000 foot. This 8000 foot would almost entirely come from newly raised men because in medieval times if you aren't a noble or a knight, or in other words if you aren't worth a ransom, you aren't valuable as a captive, in fact quite the opposite since you'd waste resources in the form of supplies and people to guard you, so most of the time you are just killed. A possible example, again from Riverlands is Mallisters; Walder Frey hasn't bestirred himself to fight but we do not hear the same for the Mallisters, only that they are the only house worth mentioning that still hold their castle. Yet we know Mallisters are among the contributers that swell Robb's number to 6000 and the only one to be named at that, others being what few remnants of Edmure's army that have crossed the Redfork and a few petty lords.

 

As for Ironborn, no they don't actually have a high mobilization rate in general what we see with Balon is a one time thing for all we know and Euron is a continuation of it and this is both because they are able to since they don't have much farming anyway and they actually need to have a high mobilization if they want to have any effect; as you can see by my last Ironborn post, even with all the strength of Iron Isles they have perhaps a little over 400 ships once two lords who haven't arrived join the near 400. Most of these ships don't even have 50 men, Theon's is very likely a bigger than average ship since it is compared to his father's and uncles, which are ships of the Iron fleet that are thrice the size of regular longships but only comparable to galleys, or smaller war galleys of the non Iron-born lords.

 

Edit: For perhaps a better understanding of a mobilization, I'll add something I've read on how medieval english armies were formed, though I am unable to give the source now.

Fryd, the army, was levied as one men per five hydes, land enough to sustain a single family. This men was equipped with armor, weapon and shield and a horse for travelling, the cost of these distributed among five familes since it was expensive to fully equip even a single man but it was also more trouble than it's worth to levy unarmed and unarmored men. Since Westeros is largely based on War of the Roses England, I think mobilization rates would be somewhere along this for most of the lords.

I can't comment on everything, but two come to mind immediately.

One, the Ironborn. I'm not entirely sure what your position on their mobilization is in the end, but it is patently wrong to say they don't have a high mobilization rate. Martin himself says they do. Here is his quote:

The ironborn come from a culture with a very strong warrior tradition -- much more so than mainland Westeros. The rest of the Seven Kingdoms have a warrior caste (the knights) on top of a larger base of peasants, farmers, craftsmen, merchants, etc. The "Old Way" of the islands encouraged almost all men (and some women, like Asha) to take up raiding, at least if they were young and healthy.

As we can see from the above, the army Balon puts in the field is pretty close to every able bodied man in the Iron Isles. This is not the case on the mainland. Also, how could the poorer lords from the far North afford to mobilize a higher portion of their men than richer lords like the Manderlys or Boltons could? The poorer lords would be expected to be able to mobilize, arm, feed and transport a smaller percentage of their population.

The second issue relates to the War of the Roses you use as reference. Medieval England had a population of around 2.5 million people. However, how large were the armies raised during the War of the Roses? 25 thousand would have been a very big army, and that is only 1% of the population. 40 thousand would stretch it to almost 2%. But that was in England, where the distances over which armies had to be mobilized, supplied and transported were smaller than the size of the Karstark lands alone.

If the Lancasters or Yorks could raise an army of 20,000 in England, how much of that army could they have afforded to march to say Germany or Poland, for example, which is broadly similar to the distance an army has to march from Winterfell to the Riverlands. I'd guarantee that the size of the army would be drastically smaller. The same applies to the Karstarks having to march 2300 men to Winterfell, 500 miles away. That isn't going to be a substantial portion of their total population. It will be a tiny percentage only.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I can't comment on everything, but two come to mind immediately.

One, the Ironborn. I'm not entirely sure what your position on their mobilization is in the end, but it is patently wrong to say they don't have a high mobilization rate. Martin himself says they do. Here is his quote:

The ironborn come from a culture with a very strong warrior tradition -- much more so than mainland Westeros. The rest of the Seven Kingdoms have a warrior caste (the knights) on top of a larger base of peasants, farmers, craftsmen, merchants, etc. The "Old Way" of the islands encouraged almost all men (and some women, like Asha) to take up raiding, at least if they were young and healthy.

As we can see from the above, the army Balon puts in the field is pretty close to every able bodied man in the Iron Isles. This is not the case on the mainland. Also, how could the poorer lords from the far North afford to mobilize a higher portion of their men than richer lords like the Manderlys or Boltons could? The poorer lords would be expected to be able to mobilize, arm, feed and transport a smaller percentage of their population.

The second issue relates to the War of the Roses you use as reference. Medieval England had a population of around 2.5 million people. However, how large were the armies raised during the War of the Roses? 25 thousand would have been a very big army, and that is only 1% of the population. 40 thousand would stretch it to almost 2%. But that was in England, where the distances over which armies had to be mobilized, supplied and transported were smaller than the size of the Karstark lands alone.

If the Lancasters or Yorks could raise an army of 20,000 in England, how much of that army could they have afforded to march to say Germany or Poland, for example, which is broadly similar to the distance an army has to march from Winterfell to the Riverlands. I'd guarantee that the size of the army would be drastically smaller. The same applies to the Karstarks having to march 2300 men to Winterfell, 500 miles away. That isn't going to be a substantial portion of their total population. It will be a tiny percentage only.

 

I'm saying the exceptionally high mobilization rate for the Ironborn we see is an exception. Apart from a few practicers like Euron, The "Old Way" was göne for the last 300 years. I assume it was also an exception in the case of Hoares as we have no major invasions or wars from earlier kings. People would go reaving of course but these would be small bands of people with a few longships, nothing organized like the invasion of Riverlands or the North. Even Balon's father doesn't go assembling a huge fleet and Balon himself fails to accomplish much besides burning the Lannister fleet on his first rebellion.

As for Karstarks, logically what you say is true, yes but logic doesn't always apply to the series; Karstarks march off with 2000 foot and 300 horse, they later gather some small amount of men, perhaps a couple of hundred to join Rodrik, to help retake Winterfell, which is much closer to them than even the borders of Riverlands and lastly they gather 440 foot and 12 horse to join the war for the North. After this we see Alys chased by only a handful of people and she is very sure of herself that she'll be able to take her home without any bloodshed with just 200 Thenns,armed and armored poorly in comparison to the average westerosi soldier. If they could have more men, why Arnolf Karstark only has some 450 men and have left a very poor force at Karhold that they won't even be able to defend against 200 bronze armored Thenns? Why Greatjons uncles, Who had all the time they needed to gather men more fit for battle then they currently have only have some 400 old men with one force and young buys supported with some crippled serjeants in the other? Why Ramsay has only 600 (around 500 by my calculations) men when he had all the time to prepare before attacking the Hornwood lands and again all the time he needed to gather even more soldiers, if he needed of course, after Rodrik was dead? What you say really makes sense, yes, but in the books it doesn't appear so.

Should you want more nonsensical things regarding numbers in the books here's a very major one that has always bothered me; Theon takes Winterfell with ~20 men, Ramsay scatters Rodriks force of near 2000 with a much smaller force. One of these take place in Winterfell, right next to winter town and the other on the streets of winter town. This town normally has some 2000-3000 population not counting the winter refugees, which should also have started to come by now because the summer is over as evidenced by Bran's harvest feast. If only %1-2 go, there should be plenty of men left before even the refugees arrive, but this is not the case also evidenced by two instances from Rodrik;

 

Quote

The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less.Bran watched them from the balcony of Maester Luwin's turret, listening to them grunt and strain and curse as they swung their staves and wooden swords. The yard was alive to the clack of wood on wood, punctuated all too often by thwacks and yowls of pain when a blow struck leather or flesh. Ser Rodrik strode among the boys, face reddening beneath his white whiskers, muttering at them one and all. Bran had never seen the old knight look so fierce. "No," he kept saying. "No. No. No."

"They don't fight very well," Bran said dubiously. He scratched Summer idly behind the ears as the direwolf tore at a haunch of meat. Bones crunched between his teeth.

"For a certainty," Maester Luwin agreed with a deep sigh. The maester was peering through his big Myrish lens tube, measuring shadows and noting the position of the comet that hung low in the morning sky. "Yet given time … Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. Many will not come back to us, and we must needs find the men to take their places."

Most of the guard are not even 16 though there are some who are older but not many. There is one over twenty, but he is very likely petty nobility as Hal Mollen is suggested to be by the wiki and like the guy in the Wild Hares likely is.

Quote

And then Bran was back abed in his lonely tower room, tangled in his blankets, his breath coming hard. "Summer," he cried aloud. "Summer." His shoulder seemed to ache, as if he had fallen on it, but he knew it was only the ghost of what the wolf was feeling. Jojen told it true. I am a beastling. Outside he could hear the faint barking of dogs. The sea has come. It's flowing over the walls, just as Jojen saw. Bran grabbed the bar overhead and pulled himself up, shouting for help. No one came, and after a moment he remembered that no one would. They had taken the guard off his door. Ser Rodrik had needed every man of fighting age he could lay his hands on, so Winterfell had been left with only a token garrison.

The rest had left eight days past, six hundred men from Winterfell and the nearest holdfasts. Cley Cerwyn was bringing three hundred more to join them on the march, and Maester Luwin had sent ravens before them, summoning levies from White Harbor and the barrowlands and even the deep places inside the wolfswood. Torrhen's Square was under attack by some monstrous war chief named Dagmer Cleftjaw. Old Nan said he couldn't be killed, that once a foe had cut his head in two with an axe, but Dagmer was so fierce he'd just pushed the two halves back together and held them until they healed up. Could Dagmer have won? Torrhen's Square was many days from Winterfell, yet still . . .

 

Ser Rodrik barely gathers together 600 men of fightnig age from Winterfell's guard, winter town and nearest holdfasts.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

I'm saying the exceptionally high mobilization rate for the Ironborn we see is an exception. Apart from a few practicers like Euron, The "Old Way" was göne for the last 300 years. I assume it was also an exception in the case of Hoares as we have no major invasions or wars from earlier kings. People would go reaving of course but these would be small bands of people with a few longships, nothing organized like the invasion of Riverlands or the North. Even Balon's father doesn't go assembling a huge fleet and Balon himself fails to accomplish much besides burning the Lannister fleet on his first rebellion.

As for Karstarks, logically what you say is true, yes but logic doesn't always apply to the series; Karstarks march off with 2000 foot and 300 horse, they later gather some small amount of men, perhaps a couple of hundred to join Rodrik, to help retake Winterfell, which is much closer to them than even the borders of Riverlands and lastly they gather 440 foot and 12 horse to join the war for the North. After this we see Alys chased by only a handful of people and she is very sure of herself that she'll be able to take her home without any bloodshed with just 200 Thenns,armed and armored poorly in comparison to the average westerosi soldier. If they could have more men, why Arnolf Karstark only has some 450 men and have left a very poor force at Karhold that they won't even be able to defend against 200 bronze armored Thenns? Why Greatjons uncles, Who had all the time they needed to gather men more fit for battle then they currently have only have some 400 old men with one force and young buys supported with some crippled serjeants in the other? Why Ramsay has only 600 (around 500 by my calculations) men when he had all the time to prepare before attacking the Hornwood lands and again all the time he needed to gather even more soldiers, if he needed of course, after Rodrik was dead? What you say really makes sense, yes, but in the books it doesn't appear so.

Should you want more nonsensical things regarding numbers in the books here's a very major one that has always bothered me; Theon takes Winterfell with ~20 men, Ramsay scatters Rodriks force of near 2000 with a much smaller force. One of these take place in Winterfell, right next to winter town and the other on the streets of winter town. This town normally has some 2000-3000 population not counting the winter refugees, which should also have started to come by now because the summer is over as evidenced by Bran's harvest feast. If only %1-2 go, there should be plenty of men left before even the refugees arrive, but this is not the case also evidenced by two instances from Rodrik;

 

Most of the guard are not even 16 though there are some who are older but not many. There is one over twenty, but he is very likely petty nobility as Hal Mollen is suggested to be by the wiki and like the guy in the Wild Hares likely is.

 

Ser Rodrik barely gathers together 600 men of fightnig age from Winterfell's guard, winter town and nearest holdfasts.

I agree that Martin's numbers are sometimes all over the place. But let's explore the 600 men for a moment. They are raised from Winterfell's immediate surroundings. The "nearest holdfasts" only. Note that it excludes anyone from the Cerwyn lands, which are only a day's ride away, since Cley Cerwyn brought 300 separate men from the Cerwyn lands.

So this would seem to be the remaining available men of fighting age from Winterfell itself, and from holdfasts only in very close proximity to Winterfell. And this after the cream of the crop had already left with Robb and Ned. I would argue the same applies to Karhold, where the remaining 450 men they sent with Arnolf are the equivalent of the 600 men Rodrik raised from Winterfell's immediate surroundings.

In other words, when Alys says Karhold has no men left, she means Karhold and its immediate surroundings. Not the entire 50,000 square miles of Karstark lands.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I agree that Martin's numbers are sometimes all over the place. But let's explore the 600 men for a moment. They are raised from Winterfell's immediate surroundings. The "nearest holdfasts" only. Note that it excludes anyone from the Cerwyn lands, which are only a day's ride away, since Cley Cerwyn brought 300 separate men from the Cerwyn lands.

So this would seem to be the remaining available men of fighting age from Winterfell itself, and from holdfasts only in very close proximity to Winterfell. And this after the cream of the crop had already left with Robb and Ned. I would argue the same applies to Karhold, where the remaining 450 men they sent with Arnolf are the equivalent of the 600 men Rodrik raised from Winterfell's immediate surroundings.

In other words, when Alys says Karhold has no men left, she means Karhold and its immediate surroundings. Not the entire 50,000 square miles of Karstark lands.

Take notice of the part that Winterfell's new guard is mostly made up of boys 16 or younger wit the exception of a few. These are the remaining available "men of fighting age" and Rodrik takes most of them away with him. Remaining men from nearby settlements and Cerwny lands would more or less be the same. These men are the equivelants of Umbers' green boy army, Manderlys' five feet tall boy spearman or even Jon's boys and girls as young as twelve that can string a bow or hold a spear. So what I suggested for the Northernmost North probably holds true even for Winterfell and surroundings; If Rodrik had likelier candidates lying around, he'd have taken them for the guard, not boys younger than 16.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Take notice of the part that Winterfell's new guard is mostly made up of boys 16 or younger wit the exception of a few. These are the remaining available "men of fighting age" and Rodrik takes most of them away with him. Remaining men from nearby settlements and Cerwny lands would more or less be the same. These men are the equivelants of Umbers' green boy army, Manderlys' five feet tall boy spearman or even Jon's boys and girls as young as twelve that can string a bow or hold a spear. So what I suggested for the Northernmost North probably holds true even for Winterfell and surroundings; If Rodrik had likelier candidates lying around, he'd have taken them for the guard, not boys younger than 16.

Look, as a thought experiment let's accept for the moment that this is the case in the North, as long a you apply that to the South too. Because there is no way that the North can raise a larger percentage of its population to arms than the South does. It is logically impossible. The mobilization ratio is a function of the number of peasants required to generate the resources necessary to support one soldier in the field. And in the North, you would require MORE peasants to support each soldier than in the South, because the land is less fertile, so more work is required to generate the required surplus, and the travel distances are greater, so more supplies are needed to mobilize an army than in the South.

So thought experiment aside, this does not make sense.

Also, if you are saying that they were able to raise 600 lads between the ages of 15 and 19 (with one 20 year old) from Winterfell's immediate surroundings, then by default you are saying Winterfell's immediate surroundings normally have a LOT more able bodied men than 600, because the ages between 15-19 represent at a guess maybe one sixth of the population between 15 and 50. So that would make it around 3600 able bodied men in Winterfell and its immediate surroundings. But wait. We must assume that a good number of lads between 15-19 already went with Robb's army, to serve as squires, pages, apprentices, cooking boys, animal handlers and what have you. So the 600 was likely more like a thousand before the army left. And of course, not EVERY able bodied man will be mobilized. Some will be required at their home keeps, some will hide, some will be be busy with some errand or be missed for some reason. So the 1000 likely becomes 1500 at the start of the War.

So now mulitply that 1500 by six (to expand the age range to include ALL able bodied men), and you get 9000 able bodied men at Winterfell and its immediate surroundings before the War. And by immediate surroundings we seem to mean less than a day's ride away, given that the Cerwyn's brought seperate men from a day's ride away.

So 9000 able bodied men from a day's ride around Winterfell, before the War.

And that's if we go with your theory.

Edit

Just to add, able bodied men would represent, what, a third of the total male population? Cripples, the sick, the injured, the young and the old would outnumber them. So if you have 9000 able bodied men, you likely have a male population from 0-90 and all sorts inbetween, of say 25,000. So double that to add the female half and you get around 50,000 people around Winterfell.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Look, as a thought experiment let's accept for the moment that this is the case in the North, as long a you apply that to the South too. Because there is no way that the North can raise a larger percentage of its population to arms than the South does. It is logically impossible. The mobilization ratio is a function of the number of peasants required to generate the resources necessary to support one soldier in the field. And in the North, you would require MORE peasants to support each soldier than in the South, because the land is less fertile, so more work is required to generate the required surplus, and the travel distances are greater, so more supplies are needed to mobilize an army than in the South.

So thought experiment aside, this does not make sense.

Also, if you are saying that they were able to raise 600 lads between the ages of 15 and 19 (with one 20 year old) from Winterfell's immediate surroundings, then by default you are saying Winterfell's immediate surroundings normally have a LOT more able bodied men than 600, because the ages between 15-19 represent at a guess maybe one sixth of the population between 15 and 50. So that would make it around 3600 able bodied men in Winterfell and its immediate surroundings. But wait. We must assume that a good number of lads between 15-19 already went with Robb's army, to serve as squires, pages, apprentices, cooking boys, animal handlers and what have you. So the 600 was likely more like a thousand before the army left. And of course, not EVERY able bodied man will be mobilized. Some will be required at their home keeps, some will hide, some will be be busy with some errand or be missed for some reason. So the 1000 likely becomes 1500 at the start of the War.

So now mulitply that 1500 by six (to expand the age range to include ALL able bodied men), and you get 9000 able bodied men at Winterfell and its immediate surroundings before the War. And by immediate surroundings we seem to mean less than a day's ride away, given that the Cerwyn's brought seperate men from a day's ride away.

So 9000 able bodied men from a day's ride around Winterfell, before the War.

And that's if we go with your theory.

Edit

Just to add, able bodied men would represent, what, a third of the total male population? Cripples, the sick, the injured, the young and the old would outnumber them. So if you have 9000 able bodied men, you likely have a male population from 0-90 and all sorts inbetween, of say 25,000. So double that to add the female half and you get around 50,000 people around Winterfell.

Yes and no. What you say is what was in real medieval life and it would be logical to apply the same to the books unless it is stated or suggested otherwise, which in the case of the North is. Just a quick look at what I said on Rodrik's soldiers and winter town is enough to see it makes no sense just as you said, I agree with you on this but this is what we see so it must be what it is.

On the guard being between 15 and 19, those who are above 16 are the minority and it is said most are 16 or younger not most are 15-16 this suggests there could be those younger than 15 too and not a handful but a good amount of them. It wouldn't be out of the question since we see Jon recruiting volunteers as young as 12 and Manderly as short as 5 feet. If there were some 13-14 year olds who are bigger than most people their age Rodrik would take them too.

On age demographics, I have so far only found one chart with percentages stated, which I have used on my previous calculations. According to that 13- are %29 of the population, 14-17 are %7, 18-25 are %14. Apart from the wars, famine, dieseas and such once you have survived past infancy your chance of seeing 60-70 is not so far from it was from just before the modern medical advancements. So taking the two relevant figures it would be roughly  half of what you have guessed so it would be double that number.

It makes no sense, true but this is what Martin says, or rather what he says suggests. I am no more happy with the vague descriptions of green boys, able bodied men etc. than you are.  In one paragraph guys aged 17 could be described as green boys then just a chapter or two later they have somehow become part of men of fighting age. In one chapter Rodrik is hard pressed to replace the guard and all he could find are a bunch of boys 16 or younger because "Robb took all the likely lads for leagues around" then sometime later  we see him somehow raising a magical host out of the blue, or should I say green. A host of 600 able bodied men from just the nearest holdfasts and Winterfell guard alone. What happened to the likely lads being gone? What happened to his boys younger than 16?

 

Edit: I don't know where their numbers come from but I'll just add these two interesting sites that I've found while searching for some information. They may be of use.

http://www222.pair.com/sjohn/blueroom/demog.htm

https://donjon.bin.sh/fantasy/demographics/

[Free Northman Reborn]

25 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Yes and no. What you say is what was in real medieval life and it would be logical to apply the same to the books unless it is stated or suggested otherwise, which in the case of the North is. Just a quick look at what I said on Rodrik's soldiers and winter town is enough to see it makes no sense just as you said, I agree with you on this but this is what we see so it must be what it is.

On the guard being between 15 and 19, those who are above 16 are the minority and it is said most are 16 or younger not most are 15-16 this suggests there could be those younger than 15 too and not a handful but a good amount of them. It wouldn't be out of the question since we see Jon recruiting volunteers as young as 12 and Manderly as short as 5 feet. If there were some 13-14 year olds who are bigger than most people their age Rodrik would take them too.

On age demographics, I have so far only found one chart with percentages stated, which I have used on my previous calculations. According to that 13- are %29 of the population, 14-17 are %7, 18-25 are %14. Apart from the wars, famine, dieseas and such once you have survived past infancy your chance of seeing 60-70 is not so far from it was from just before the modern medical advancements. So taking the two relevant figures it would be roughly  half of what you have guessed so it would be double that number.

It makes no sense, true but this is what Martin says, or rather what he says suggests. I am no more happy with the vague descriptions of green boys, able bodied men etc. than you are.  In one paragraph guys aged 17 could be described as green boys then just a chapter or two later they have somehow become part of men of fighting age. In one chapter Rodrik is hard pressed to replace the guard and all he could find are a bunch of boys 16 or younger because "Robb took all the likely lads for leagues around" then sometime later  we see him somehow raising a magical host out of the blue, or should I say green. A host of 600 able bodied men from just the nearest holdfasts and Winterfell guard alone. What happened to the likely lads being gone? What happened to his boys younger than 16?

 

No, that does not surprise me that much. Rodrik was training a new garrison for Winterell itself. Which had a permanent garrison of 200 before the War. These men he would not be able to raise very easily from petty vassal lords and landed knights sworn to Winterfell, considering that these vassals had already provided their required commitment to the Starks by sending men with Robb. So Rodrik was training a new garrison from local Wintertown lads and from the farm villages directly controlled by Winterfell. Considering that Winterfell has walls 100 feet tall, and that Rodrik really did not envisage any immediate threat to Winterfell itself at that point, training up the local lads who remained behind for garrison duty on Winterfell's walls was more than adequate, and the need did not justify calling more men from the bannerlords, even the petty lords and landed knights sworn directly to Winterfell.

However, once the Ironborn invaded, the scenario changed, and Rodrik called up more men from surrounding holdfasts and petty lords. But even then, only from lords on Winterfell's own lands and apparently very close by (but a bit further than just Wintertown and the surrounding farms). And these were the 600 you are referring to.

Anyway, the simple fact remains. The Ironborn are the only kingdom to raise most of their able bodied men to war when required. The mainland - including the North - cannot and does not do so. Not even close. I'm sure that like Winterfell, Karhold and the Last Hearth themselves stretched their available local manpower. But not the manpower of their entire respective regions. Just the lands directly controlled by each ruling keep.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

44 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No, that does not surprise me that much. Rodrik was training a new garrison for Winterell itself. Which had a permanent garrison of 200 before the War. These men he would not be able to raise very easily from petty vassal lords and landed knights sworn to Winterfell, considering that these vassals had already provided their required commitment to the Starks by sending men with Robb. So Rodrik was training a new garrison from local Wintertown lads and from the farm villages directly controlled by Winterfell. Considering that Winterfell has walls 100 feet tall, and that Rodrik really did not envisage any immediate threat to Winterfell itself at that point, training up the local lads who remained behind for garrison duty on Winterfell's walls was more than adequate, and the need did not justify calling more men from the bannerlords, even the petty lords and landed knights sworn directly to Winterfell.

 

Even so this poses a problem; Read this part again

"Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. Many will not come back to us, and we must needs find the men to take their places."

 

Rodrik was training them to be a permanent garrison, not for being placeholder while the former garrison was away yet he only has one guy above 20 and most are 16 or below. He may or may not have taken additional men from petty lords' men pool but he certainly has from villages directly owned by Winterfell and yet these are the men he has managed to gather for his permanent garrison in training. If there were plenty more grown up men, where are they? Certainly it is better to serve in your lord's household guard than it is to work your back off on a soil yielding a harvest poorer than most.It is safer, easier, pays more, feeds better houses better. Who would pass on the oppurtunity?

[Free Northman Reborn]

28 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Even so this poses a problem; Read this part again

"Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. Many will not come back to us, and we must needs find the men to take their places."

 

Rodrik was training them to be a permanent garrison, not for being placeholder while the former garrison was away yet he only has one guy above 20 and most are 16 or below. He may or may not have taken additional men from petty lords' men pool but he certainly has from villages directly owned by Winterfell and yet these are the men he has managed to gather for his permanent garrison in training. If there were plenty more grown up men, where are they? Certainly it is better to serve in your lord's household guard than it is to work your back off on a soil yielding a harvest poorer than most.It is safer, easier, pays more, feeds better houses better. Who would pass on the oppurtunity?

But that's exactly what I'm saying. The level of depletion is highest at Winterfell itself and its immediate villages, just like it is highest at Karhold itself. The farther you move out from these keeps, the lower the depletion rate would be. Also remember, Rodrik refers to the likely lads. Which means people who can be spared from their communities. If there is an able bodied man who is the local tanner, or baker or thatcher, smith, innkeeper, mason or whatever, he is not going to drop his trade and go and become a spearman on Winterfell's walls. Similarly, if the harvest is still being brought in, the strongest, most productive fieldhands are not going to be sent off to become garrison members for Winterfell. You will send the men who are least needed in their villages. There was no urgent need to defend Winterfell from invaders at the time. This was a long term replacement of guards for Winterfell's garrison. Youngsters who could make it their career.

But once the Ironborn arrived, it suddenly did become an emergency, meaning those fieldhands who were not sent before, could be released for a short while. Again, not permanently to become Winterfell guards, but temporarily, to go and chase Dagmer Cleftjaw from Torhenn Square.

[direpupy]

20 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

Fryd, the army, was levied as one men per five hydes, land enough to sustain a single family. This men was equipped with armor, weapon and shield and a horse for travelling, the cost of these distributed among five familes since it was expensive to fully equip even a single man but it was also more trouble than it's worth to levy unarmed and unarmored men. Since Westeros is largely based on War of the Roses England, I think mobilization rates would be somewhere along this for most of the lords.

Some minor nitpicks.

The Fyrd is something from pre-Norman England, and was only used as a basis for taxation after the Norman invasion and conquest, so was not a means of raising an army during the War of the Roses.

Next the Fyrd was divided into a full and a narrow Fyrd, the full Fyrd was actually  one man per Hide of land who where to have shield and spear. The narrow Fyrd is the one you are speaking of with one much better equipped man per five Hides of land.

But even the narrow Fyrd was only used for the defense of England, for assaults they only brought 1/3 of they actual Fyrd although these where strengthened by the Huscarls the professional soldiers who had no other job then to fight and protect there Lord/King and who are not part of the Fyrd.

Again just some minor nitpicks, but i thought you might find it useful for your calculations.