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Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros


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Regarding the Westerlands, we know that in order to raise their original 35k, and Stafford's 2nd army (size not known but generally guestimated around 10k, including around 4k survivors from the Battle of Riverrun), they had to scrape together potboys and street urchins from the bowels of Lannisport in addition to hiring a bunch of mercenaries up front.

So I think it is safe to say that while some skeleton garrisons obviously remained at various keeps, the West pretty much tapped into the vast majority of their primary and reserve strength to put an estimated 41k men in the field.

Of course, Tywin being filthy rich always begged the question, why didn't he just pull a Stannis and hire 20k sellswords from Essos at any given time? He would not even need the Iron Bank's funding to do so. I guess it never came down to that level of desperation, and he was tight with his money.

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9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

And I'm just going to point out that your argument was not that most of his soldiers had gone with him, which I agree with, but "This clearly means there are very few men left if any" which seems highly implausible and using House Westerling as your example is just utterly flawed given the very pertinent information we are given about them. 

I specifically said that instead of most of his soldiers had göne with him because "soldier" can imply several things with no real standing army to speak of. Is it the knights at his service or is it the knights and the levies he raised or maybe it means knights and the whole male population able to grasp a spear, whether taken to levy or left in the village. First one clearly means he has left knights but nothing on levied soldiers, while second means he has left some knights, left some men from the levy he raised, meaning they are armed now, and there are also men left in the villages to call upon if more men are needed in the future. The third is what I meant, the entire male population able to fight, and it is more clear the way I put it than saying something ambigous as "he has taken most of his soldiers".

 

9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Of course gold comes into it. Gold allows a Lord to have a larger percent of his vassals trained and equipped than a poorer lord. This is just basic common sense, richer lands will be able to call up more levies. Gold also means a land is less dependent on keeping farmers in the field during war than a poorer realm. 

Even if Westerlings weren't able to arm the entirety of their available population and therefore left some portion because of it, they could still have levied more after Robb came, he would just handover some arms and armor from his stores to gather a new levy which he obviously needed. Even if he didn't have any spares when he first attacked the Westerlands, he would, after defeating Stafford's army or tajing Ashemark or he could just gather the men, march them to Riverlands and arm them there as  the entire West is his riding ground now.

 

 

As for the rest of your post, you are talking like these men are lords or knights with their own land and has at least some say about things. They don't. They are just peasants, convincing doesn't come into it. If/when their lord says grab this spear and get in line they either will or soon wish they had done so.

Again, amount of land also doesn't come into play. It is important to determine how many you can raise, but not the proportion you choose to raise. If you have 5 men available per village and you choose to take 2, 5 villages or 50, there are still 3 men left per village. Obviously you have more men left if you have 50 villages but you still have men with 5 villages too. If you have taken 5 men per village then 5 villages or 50, you have none left.

 

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3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the Westerlands, we know that in order to raise their original 35k, and Stafford's 2nd army (size not known but generally guestimated around 10k, including around 4k survivors from the Battle of Riverrun), they had to scrape together potboys and street urchins from the bowels of Lannisport in addition to hiring a bunch of mercenaries up front.

So I think it is safe to say that while some skeleton garrisons obviously remained at various keeps, the West pretty much tapped into the vast majority of their primary and reserve strength to put an estimated 41k men in the field.

Of course, Tywin being filthy rich always begged the question, why didn't he just pull a Stannis and hire 20k sellswords from Essos at any given time? He would not even need the Iron Bank's funding to do so. I guess it never came down to that level of desperation, and he was tight with his money.

I'd think it is because the sellswords would be very expensive if the quote below has any truth to it.

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Dany would sooner have wept for her gold. The bribes she'd tendered to Mathos Mallarawan, Wendello Qar Deeth, and Egon Emeros the Exquisite might have bought her a ship, or hired a score of sellswords. "Suppose I sent Ser Jorah to demand the return of my gifts?" she asked.

Hiring a score of sellswords and buying a ship seems on par with each other. This hiring would be for a very long term, I assume, but still a ship?

 

Hiring sellswords would be way more expensive than keeping household knights in the short while they are under your service, but with lords opting to not keep more household knights and hire sellwords for battle suggests, in the long run simply hiring sellswords to supplement your ranks whenever there is a war is cheaper than idly keeping household knights during peace times.

The reason Stannis is now hiring 20k men would be because he is in desperate need of men and he now have the means to hire these men. If he loses he'll probably have no need to pay the iron bank back  with him likely dead and his titles revoked and if he wins he can just pay them back, with Tywin's and perhaps Mace's money if he can impose his will.

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8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the Westerlands, we know that in order to raise their original 35k, and Stafford's 2nd army (size not known but generally guestimated around 10k, including around 4k survivors from the Battle of Riverrun), they had to scrape together potboys and street urchins from the bowels of Lannisport in addition to hiring a bunch of mercenaries up front.

So I think it is safe to say that while some skeleton garrisons obviously remained at various keeps, the West pretty much tapped into the vast majority of their primary and reserve strength to put an estimated 41k men in the field.

Of course, Tywin being filthy rich always begged the question, why didn't he just pull a Stannis and hire 20k sellswords from Essos at any given time? He would not even need the Iron Bank's funding to do so. I guess it never came down to that level of desperation, and he was tight with his money.

They would take fucking forever to get over to Westeros and the only large company he'd prolly want was under contract (and wouldn't contract with him anyway).

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I specifically said that instead of most of his soldiers had göne with him because "soldier" can imply several things with no real standing army to speak of. Is it the knights at his service or is it the knights and the levies he raised or maybe it means knights and the whole male population able to grasp a spear, whether taken to levy or left in the village. First one clearly means he has left knights but nothing on levied soldiers, while second means he has left some knights, left some men from the levy he raised, meaning they are armed now, and there are also men left in the villages to call upon if more men are needed in the future. The third is what I meant, the entire male population able to fight, and it is more clear the way I put it than saying something ambigous as "he has taken most of his soldiers".

Even if Westerlings weren't able to arm the entirety of their available population and therefore left some portion because of it, they could still have levied more after Robb came, he would just handover some arms and armor from his stores to gather a new levy which he obviously needed. Even if he didn't have any spares when he first attacked the Westerlands, he would, after defeating Stafford's army or tajing Ashemark or he could just gather the men, march them to Riverlands and arm them there as  the entire West is his riding ground now.

The lords wouldn't be arming anyone but their household knights (mesnie) and their garrison. All other levies or contracted forces would bring their own arms and armor, either provided by a village/community or theirs through purchase and inheritance.

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On 17/10/2017 at 6:04 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the Westerlands, we know that in order to raise their original 35k, and Stafford's 2nd army (size not known but generally guestimated around 10k, including around 4k survivors from the Battle of Riverrun), they had to scrape together potboys and street urchins from the bowels of Lannisport in addition to hiring a bunch of mercenaries up front.

Not exactly true. The 35k we hear of know 'pot boys and street urchins' being raised. What we know is that Stafford had very little time to raise his army and that he raised those types from Lannisport, not the Westerlands as a whole. What also seems pretty clear from both the descriptions of the host and Robb's own words on the strength of Lannisport is that the hugely experienced Lannisport pikemen were not taken by Stafford, like Tywin did not take the Navy. It seems likely that the important settlements, or vulnerable settlements, were left with enough soliders to properly defend it 

On 17/10/2017 at 6:04 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

So I think it is safe to say that while some skeleton garrisons obviously remained at various keeps, the West pretty much tapped into the vast majority of their primary and reserve strength to put an estimated 41k men in the field.

Which is crazy as we know Rodrik's 2k host he gathered at the Northern Capital was similar in comparison to Stafford's yet the suggestion that the North is tapped out is something you are adamant is not possible. 

Either both the North and West are tapped out, or both have possible reserves. 

On 17/10/2017 at 6:04 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Of course, Tywin being filthy rich always begged the question, why didn't he just pull a Stannis and hire 20k sellswords from Essos at any given time? He would not even need the Iron Bank's funding to do so. I guess it never came down to that level of desperation, and he was tight with his money.

Maybe he did and by the time negotiations were being made they were simply not needed. Tywin was relatively confident that neither the Starks or Arryns would get involved and seems to have been blindsided by Renly and the Reach. Maybe in that period between his arrival at Harrenhal and the Battle of Blackwater he sent envoys, or perhaps he had other alternatives which we will never find out about.  

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On ‎2017‎/‎10‎/‎22 at 7:05 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Not exactly true. The 35k we hear of know 'pot boys and street urchins' being raised. What we know is that Stafford had very little time to raise his army and that he raised those types from Lannisport, not the Westerlands as a whole. What also seems pretty clear from both the descriptions of the host and Robb's own words on the strength of Lannisport is that the hugely experienced Lannisport pikemen were not taken by Stafford, like Tywin did not take the Navy. It seems likely that the important settlements, or vulnerable settlements, were left with enough soliders to properly defend it 

Which is crazy as we know Rodrik's 2k host he gathered at the Northern Capital was similar in comparison to Stafford's yet the suggestion that the North is tapped out is something you are adamant is not possible. 

Either both the North and West are tapped out, or both have possible reserves.   

Robb's invasion of the Westerlands has major echoes of Hannibal Barca's invasion of Roman Italy. Hannibal's strength was his cavalry, like Robb who invades the West with his cavalry force. And like Hannibal, Robb had no siege equipment as a result. Hannibal had free reign of the Italian countryside for years, defeating every army in the field while the Romans were helplessly holed up in their cities. But Hannibal never was able to threaten any of these cities, because he had no siege equipment. So Robb not being able to take Lannisport does not mean that Lannisport has a majorly strong force guarding it. Heck, even King's Landing only had something like 2000 Gold Cloaks.

It is just that a strongly walled city or fortress bestows something like a 10-1 advantage to the defenders, and Robb could not afford the cost in losses that this would expose him to in an attempt to take such a city.

As for the difference between the North and the West. The West is smaller, better resourced, more densely populated and has far better infrastructure. Raising your reserve forces would therefore be a far easier and quicker task in the West than it is in the North. There was enough time for the survivors of the Battle of the Camps at Riverrun to make it all the way back to join Stafford's host. That implies that there would have been more than enough time to gather remaining reserves of regular soldiers from other castles along the way. The fact that they have to raise potboys and street urchins strongly suggests that these reserves were close to tapped  out.

By contrast, we have evidence in the North of the Dustins, Manderlys, Boltons, Mountain Clansmen and Skagosi, at the very least, having significant portions of their main strength still untapped, on top of Martin's statement that the North struggles to a greater degree than other regions to raise its main strength easily.

So in short, I think it is quite evident that the West tapped into a greater portion of its total strength during their initial muster than the North did.

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Another pass at Reach and Stormlands
 
To summarize so far
 
Those who bent the knee after Blackwater is included in Tyrion's 50-70K Roses count.
 
Randyl Tarly had no less than 30k men survive the Bitterbridge incident. These men are likely all Reachmen belong to the lords that didn't switch to Stannis but may also include soldiers from those who did.
 
Of those present in Bitterbridge, Tyrell, Oakheart, Rowan and Tarly didn't declare for Stannis. Their infantry forces together may account to some 30K
 
Renly has no soldiers from houses Swann and Dondarrion and very likely Tarths as well.
 
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Near all the chivalry of the south had come to Renly's call, it seemed. The golden rose of Highgarden was seen everywhere: sewn on the right breast of armsmen and servants, flapping and fluttering from the green silk banners that adorned lance and pike, painted upon the shields hung outside the pavilions of the sons and brothers and cousins and uncles of House Tyrell. As well Catelyn spied the fox-and-flowers of House Florent, Fossoway apples red and green, Lord Tarly's striding huntsman, oak leaves for Oakheart, cranes for Crane, a cloud of black-and-orange butterflies for the Mullendores.

Across the Mander, the storm lords had raised their standards—Renly's own bannermen, sworn to House Baratheon and Storm's End. Catelyn recognized Bryce Caron's nightingales, the Penrose quills, and Lord Estermont's sea turtle, green on green. Yet for every shield she knew, there were a dozen strange to her, borne by the small lords sworn to the bannermen, and by hedge knights and freeriders who had come swarming to make Renly Baratheon a king in fact as well as name.

 

Catelyn listing Renly's bannermen. Notice the absence of Tarths and Hightowers. She'll not mention every single bannermen of course but absence of Tarth and Hightower was noticable for me because Hightowers are the most powerful of Mace and while we see Mullendores, a bannermen to Hightowers, there are no Hightower banners which would be much more noticable due to their numbers if not for anything else. While we don't see for example Rowans either, we know they were in Renly's army because they were mentioned and Catelyn also sees their lord. Hightowers don't get mentioned in any army or any battle. They were given lands after Blackwater though, so they participated. I believe they were the 10k with Mace, which both fits with my calculations on numbers in Dance of the Dragons and explain why they were given lands by the crown after Blackwater even though they were seemingly absent prior to that.
 
 
 
 
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"As you say." She gave the command, though she had to raise her voice to be heard above the tourney din. Ser Colen walked his horse slowly through the throngs, with Catelyn riding in his wake. A roar went up from the crowd as a helmetless red-bearded man with a griffin on his shield went down before a big knight in blue armor. His steel was a deep cobalt, even the blunt morningstar he wielded with such deadly effect, his mount barded in the quartered sun-and-moon heraldry of House Tarth.
 

Above proves Catelyn recognizes the heraldry of Tarths but a search of Tarth yields no mention of any Tarth soldiers or banners or such that indicates there are Tarth soldiers, not in bitterbridge, before or after Tarly killing soldiers, not among Stannis' soldiers. We see no Tarth soldiers cheering for Brienne, they do not prevent knights and lords from making a move on their lady. Lord Selwyn also consents for a midnight meeting with Davos though this doesn't prove much by itsself as Catelyn sees with her eyes the Penrose banners near Bitterbridge and Penroses have met with Davos. Other lords Davos mentions are Dondarrion who is absent, Swann who met him and not mentioned by neither Renly nor Catelyn and Caron who is with Renly at first then goes to Stannis.

Below is Renly's list
 
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Tyrell swords will make me king. Rowan and Tarly and Caron will make me king, with axe and mace and warhammer. Tarth arrows and Penrose lances, Fossoway, Cuy, Mullendore, Estermont, Selmy, Hightower, Oakheart, Crane, Caswell, Blackbar, Morrigen, Beesbury, Shermer, Dunn, Footly . . . even House Florent, your own wife's brothers and uncles, they will make me king. All the chivalry of the south rides with me, and that is the least part of my power. My foot is coming behind, a hundred thousand swords and spears and pikes. And you will destroy me? With what, pray? That paltry rabble I see there huddled under the castle walls? I'll call them five thousand and be generous, codfish lords and onion knights and sellswords. Half of them are like to come over to me before the battle starts. You have fewer than four hundred horse, my scouts tell me—freeriders in boiled leather who will not stand an instant against armored lances. I do not care how seasoned a warrior you think you are, Stannis, that host of yours won't survive the first charge of my vanguard."

 

 
 
 
 
 
Three quotes on Blackwater and it's aftermath
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By the time all the new knights had been given their sers the hall was growing restive, and none more so than Joffrey. Some of those in the gallery had begun to slip quietly away, but the notables on the floor were trapped, unable to depart without the king's leave. Judging by the way he was fidgeting atop the Iron Throne, Joff would willingly have granted it, but the day's work was far from done. For now the coin was turned over, and the captives were ushered in.
There were great lords and noble knights in that company too: sour old Lord Celtigar, the Red Crab; Ser Bonifer the Good; Lord Estermont, more ancient even than Celtigar; Lord Varner, who hobbled the length of the hall on a shattered knee, but would accept no help; Ser Mark Mullendore, grey-faced, his left arm gone to the elbow; fierce Red Ronnet of Griffin Roost; Ser Dermot of the Rainwood; Lord Willum and his sons Josua and Elyas; Ser Jon Fossoway; Ser Timon the Scrapesword; Aurane, the bastard of Driftmark; Lord Staedmon, called Pennylover; hundreds of others.
Those who had changed their allegiance during the battle needed only to swear fealty to Joffrey, but the ones who had fought for Stannis until the bitter end were compelled to speak. Their words decided their fate. If they begged forgiveness for their treasons and promised to serve loyally henceforth, Joffrey welcomed them back into the king's peace and restored them to all their lands and rights. A handful remained defiant, however. "Do not imagine this is done, boy," warned one, the bastard son of some Florent or other. "The Lord of Light protects King Stannis, now and always. All your swords and all your scheming shall not save you when his hour comes."
...
A score of captives still waited, though whether to pledge fealty or shout curses, who could say?

 

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Davos ignored the jibe. "I don't doubt Lord Celtigar bent the knee to the boy Joffrey. He is an old done man, who wants no more than to end his days in his castle, drinking his fine wine out of his jeweled cups." He turned back to Stannis. "Yet he came when you called, sire. Came, with his ships and swords. He stood by you at Storm's End when Lord Renly came down on us, and his ships sailed up the Blackwater. His men fought for you, killed for you, burned for you. Claw Isle is weakly held, yes. Held by women and children and old men. And why is that? Because their husbands and sons and fathers died on the Blackwater, that's why. Died at their oars, or with swords in their hands, fighting beneath our banners. Yet Ser Axell proposes we swoop down on the homes they left behind, to rape their windows and put their children to the sword. These smallfolk are no traitors . . ."

"They are," insisted Ser Axell. "Not all of Celtigar's men were slain on the Blackwater. Hundreds were taken with their lord, and bent the knee when he did."

 

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Each lord had his own demands; this castle and that village, tracts of lands, a small river, a forest, the wardship of certain minors left fatherless by the battle. Fortunately, these fruits were plentiful, and there were orphans and castles for all. Varys had lists. Forty-seven lesser lordlings and six hundred nineteen knights had lost their lives beneath the fiery heart of Stannis and his Lord of Light, along with several thousand common men-at-arms. Traitors all, their heirs were disinherited, their lands and castles granted to those who had proved more loyal.

 

Not all of Stannis' soldiers are killed, some lords switched side during battle and others bent the knee after it and spared along with their soldiers.

 

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"Then take a good sniff, my lord. Fill up your nose. Half a million people stink more than three hundred, you'll find. Do you smell the gold cloaks? There are near five thousand of them. My father's own sworn swords must account for another twenty thousand. And then there are the roses. Roses smell so sweet, don't they? Especially when there are so many of them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it, I can't really say how many are left, but there's more than I care to count, anyway."

This 50-70 would then include the 10k with Mace, men from Bitterbridge Randyl didn't kill and also those survivors of Blackwater whose lords switched sides or bent the knee afterwards, which would amount to more than 10k (1,5 K with Stannis, less than 10K dead). I'm unsure whether these 50-70k Roses would include surrendered Stormlander lords or not, since  I'll assume they are included because of the quote below.

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The gatehouse opened on a market square, where those who had entered before her were unloading to hawk their turnips, yellow onions, and sacks of barleycorn. Others were selling arms and armor, and very cheaply to judge from the prices they shouted out as she rode by. The looters come with the carrion crows after every battle. Brienne walked her horse past mail shirts still caked with brown blood, dinted helms, notched longswords. There was clothing to be had as well: leather boots, fur cloaks, stained surcoats with suspicious rents. She knew many of the badges. The mailed fist, the moose, the white sun, the double-bladed axe, all those were northern sigils. Tarly men had perished here as well, though, and many from the stormlands. She saw red and green apples, a shield that bore the three thunderbolts of Leygood, horse trappings patterned with the ants of Ambrose. Lord Tarly's own striding huntsman appeared on many a badge and brooch and doublet. Friend or foe, the crows care not.

 

Notice how Tyrion is not sure of the numbers of both his father (which would be noticably less than 20k by now) and the number of "Roses". Tyrion think there would be as many as 70k, which fits with his knowledge there were 60k at Bitterbridge and Mace on the road with 10k. He knows Randyl killed many men of course but he had no way of knowing how many were killed prior to Blackwater and after that he may just not have cared.

 

With some 20K coming from Mace and surrendering lords, men from the bitter bridge would number 30-50k. We don't know whose soldiers Tarly killed apart from the Florents. He may have killed all the soldiers of the lords who switched sides or he may have just killed the Florent soldiers and those from Stormlanders and spared the Reachmen,in a way similar to Stannis sparing the Karstark soldiers in the North. In any case, even if he killed all the soldiers of the lords that declared for Stannis, the rest of them still account to some 30k infantry at least.

 

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Bryce Caron walked his horse forward a few paces, his long rainbow-striped cloak twisting in the wind off the bay. "No man here is a turncloak, ser. My fealty belongs to Storm's End, and King Stannis is its rightful lord . . . and our true king. He is the last of House Baratheon, Robert's heir and Renly's."
"If that is so, why is the Knight of Flowers not among you? And where is Mathis Rowan? Randyll Tarly? Lady Oakheart? Why are they not here in your company, they who loved Renly best? Where is Brienne of Tarth, I ask you?"

Above means Tyrell, Rowan, Tarly and Oakheart still have their infantry forces more or less intact.

 

Will continue in the future.

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The more I give him, the more he wants. Kevan Lannister was beginning to understand why Cersei had grown so resentful of the Tyrells. But this was not the moment to provoke an open quarrel. Randyll Tarly and Mace Tyrell had both brought armies to King's Landing, whilst the best part of the strength of House Lannister remained in the riverlands, fast melting away. "The Mountain's men were always fighters," he said in a conciliatory tone, "and we may have need of every sword against these sellswords. If this truly is the Golden Company, as Qyburn's whisperers insist—"

Just a small post on current military situation of House Lannister.

Did they have any men in Riverlands besides those who sieged Riverrun with Jaime and perhaps a few garrisoning this castle or that?

If not then Westerland really is spent militarywise, with this coming from Tywin's second in command.

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The majority of Tywin's army has indeed gone home.

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As for the Lannister host, two thousand seasoned veterans remained encamped outside the city walls, awaiting the arrival of Paxter Redwyne's fleet to carry them across Blackwater Bay to Dragonstone. Lord Stannis appeared to have left only a small garrison behind him when he sailed north, so two thousand men would be more than sufficient, Cersei had judged.

The rest of the westermen had gone back to their wives and children, to rebuild their homes, plant their fields, and bring in one last harvest. Cersei had taken Tommen round their camps before they marched, to let them cheer their little king. She had never looked more beautiful than she did that day, with a smile on her lips and the autumn sunlight shining on her golden hair. Whatever else one might say about his sister, she did know how to make men love her when she cared enough to try. (AFFC Jaime II)

 

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5 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Just a small post on current military situation of House Lannister.

Did they have any men in Riverlands besides those who sieged Riverrun with Jaime and perhaps a few garrisoning this castle or that?

If not then Westerland really is spent militarywise, with this coming from Tywin's second in command.

They seem to make up half the garrison at Darry. I'd imagine that they'd make up a good portion of the RR garrison too but there is no mention of Frey vs Lannister colors or sigils.

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11 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They seem to make up half the garrison at Darry. I'd imagine that they'd make up a good portion of the RR garrison too but there is no mention of Frey vs Lannister colors or sigils.

Probably but it would still amount in the low hundreds; Riverrun is a small castle which Jaime thinks the 200 garrison they have would be more than enough. Darry is little more than a glorified tower house. I suspect they'd even have 250 men in total.

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A thing regarding the Bolton numbers in the 3500 that came with Roose. One of the arguments used forthey are forming the majority with very little amount of Karstarks and no others (or very few) is this.

To summarize "chiefly / in chief" doesn't have to mean more than %50, as proven below. This means Bolton doesn't have to have the majority of the 3500 men he brings along.

 

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Duskendale was done and cold; it was the battles still to come that worried Catelyn. "How many men have you brought my son?" she asked Roose Bolton pointedly.
His queer colorless eyes studied her face a moment before he answered. "Some five hundred horse and three thousand foot, my lady. Dreadfort men, in chief, and some from Karhold. With the loyalty of the Karstarks so doubtful now, I thought it best to keep them close. I regret there are not more."

 

Compare it with this below:

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"No word from Littlefinger?"
"Perhaps he never reached Bitterbridge. Or perhaps he's died there. Lord Tarly has seized Renly's stores and put a great many to the sword; Florents, chiefly. Lord Caswell has shut himself up in his castle."

 

Though it is well known at this point, Here's Florent numbers again:

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"House Florent can field two thousand swords at best." It was said that Stannis knew the strength of every house in the Seven Kingdoms. "And you have a deal more faith in your brothers and uncles than I do, my lady. The Florent lands lie too close to Highgarden for your lord uncle to risk Mace Tyrell's wrath."

Ser Axell proposed to use Salladhor Saan's fleet and the men who had escaped the Blackwater—Stannis still had some fifteen hundred on Dragonstone, more than half of them Florents—to exact retribution for Lord Celtigar's defection.

We later learn that this "some fifteen hundred" men is actually 1300(perhaps rounded down), with another force of 300 at SE. But either way, this gives us 650-750 Florent horsemen and this is after Blackwater in which Florents were part of the van and one of their commanders got captured

 

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Those who had changed their allegiance during the battle needed only to swear fealty to Joffrey, but the ones who had fought for Stannis until the bitter end were compelled to speak. Their words decided their fate. If they begged forgiveness for their treasons and promised to serve loyally henceforth, Joffrey welcomed them back into the king's peace and restored them to all their lands and rights. A handful remained defiant, however. "Do not imagine this is done, boy," warned one, the bastard son of some Florent or other. "The Lord of Light protects King Stannis, now and always. All your swords and all your scheming shall not save you when his hour comes."

So they certainly saw some fierce combat themselves, at least some part of their forces did, which means they must have taken some notable casualties as several thousand on Stannis' side died.

Even if we neglect the casualties of Florent cavalry and go by the smaller number to maximize Florent foot numbers, this gives us 1350 footmen at best. If taken in the same way as it is used for claiming proof of Roose's high numbers, this gives us a low number, little over 2500 men, put to the sword, and that is if Florent's barely form the majority by exceeding %50 only by a little.

 

From Tyrion there are 50-70k "Roses" these certainly include former Stormlanders as we see them fighting Northmen under Randyl Tarly.

Below is a list of Stannis' casualties

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Each lord had his own demands; this castle and that village, tracts of lands, a small river, a forest, the wardship of certain minors left fatherless by the battle. Fortunately, these fruits were plentiful, and there were orphans and castles for all. Varys had lists. Forty-seven lesser lordlings and six hundred nineteen knights had lost their lives beneath the fiery heart of Stannis and his Lord of Light, along with several thousand common men-at-arms. Traitors all, their heirs were disinherited, their lands and castles granted to those who had proved more loyal.

So at least some 10k survived and likely bent the knee; some are still defiant and since it is "several thousand" and not "ten/near ten/ over ten thousand" dead it means there are more than 10k survivors, whether exceeding it by a lot or not.

Renly had ~60k foot at Bitterbridge, another 10k with Mace and ~20k horse that went to Storm's End with him. This makes a 90k in total where as we have at most 70k survivors with certainly less than 10k dead, not bringing it up to the expexcted 90K, nor even the known 80k even if we disregard the killings in Bitterbridge.

Even as it is, it means at least some 10k put to the sword at Bitterbridge, which the Florents can't form the majority of with ~1300 men at most.

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4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

A thing regarding the Bolton numbers in the 3500 that came with Roose. One of the arguments used forthey are forming the majority with very little amount of Karstarks and no others (or very few) is this.

To summarize "chiefly / in chief" doesn't have to mean more than %50, as proven below. This means Bolton doesn't have to have the majority of the 3500 men he brings along.

 

 

Compare it with this below:

 

Though it is well known at this point, Here's Florent numbers again:

We later learn that this "some fifteen hundred" men is actually 1300(perhaps rounded down), with another force of 300 at SE. But either way, this gives us 650-750 Florent horsemen and this is after Blackwater in which Florents were part of the van and one of their commanders got captured

 

So they certainly saw some fierce combat themselves, at least some part of their forces did, which means they must have taken some notable casualties as several thousand on Stannis' side died.

Even if we neglect the casualties of Florent cavalry and go by the smaller number to maximize Florent foot numbers, this gives us 1350 footmen at best. If taken in the same way as it is used for claiming proof of Roose's high numbers, this gives us a low number, little over 2500 men, put to the sword, and that is if Florent's barely form the majority by exceeding %50 only by a little.

 

From Tyrion there are 50-70k "Roses" these certainly include former Stormlanders as we see them fighting Northmen under Randyl Tarly.

Below is a list of Stannis' casualties

So at least some 10k survived and likely bent the knee; some are still defiant and since it is "several thousand" and not "ten/near ten/ over ten thousand" dead it means there are more than 10k survivors, whether exceeding it by a lot or not.

Renly had ~60k foot at Bitterbridge, another 10k with Mace and ~20k horse that went to Storm's End with him. This makes a 90k in total where as we have at most 70k survivors with certainly less than 10k dead, not bringing it up to the expexcted 90K, nor even the known 80k even if we disregard the killings in Bitterbridge.

Even as it is, it means at least some 10k put to the sword at Bitterbridge, which the Florents can't form the majority of with ~1300 men at most.

"Chiefly" in Boltons' context clearly means a sigificant majority. This is corroborated by Theon, who states that most of the 4000 that return up the Neck are Dreadfort men. So if most of the 4000 were Dreadfort men, then the Boltons defnitely constituted most of the 3500 as well.

I don't know why you try to dispute this Bolton numbers issue so desperately. It is confirmed to us twice, and is really pretty clear.

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1 hour ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Honestly, the number of men the Florents can raise in-text is too low considering they are a principal house of the Reach that rules over a decent-sized chunk of land.

We don't have much on how big their land is. Only thing I can remember is their lands is at the headwaters of Honeywater. They are South of Mander and North of Hightower lands, which includes Beesbury which is close by according to the map.

2000 is actually not a bad number from what we can see on the map; Dondarrion and Caron had 4000 infantry and 800 horse put together, which included many freeriders and/or hedge knights  with a similar amount of land (from what I can tell with the map) Florents are (far more) rich so they have more horseman with less amount of men in total.

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2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

"Chiefly" in Boltons' context clearly means a sigificant majority. This is corroborated by Theon, who states that most of the 4000 that return up the Neck are Dreadfort men. So if most of the 4000 were Dreadfort men, then the Boltons defnitely constituted most of the 3500 as well.

I don't know why you try to dispute this Bolton numbers issue so desperately. It is confirmed to us twice, and is really pretty clear.

No it really isn't clear. We never get full numbers nor exact definitions on them. As I posted, chiefly clearly could mean other things than majority in numbers. Ramsay is never confirmed to have six hundred men. We have two differing accounts, a fifth of near two thousand and three times of promised two hundred( actually a hundred or two hundred, he just says two when he brings them)both of them from Ramsay(one is and the other is confirmed)

We never get an exact four thousand men, only that he had two in ten return, which could mean a huge range with roundings, he could have ~3000 or ~5000 and just going by .5s rounded up or down we see .33s rounded up too. We only know that Freys lost half a hundred at camps so we can assume Bolton lost a similar number of men that sided with him from among that 3500 but we don't know how many didn't side with him, he still had men from other houses among that, Arya sees mountain clansmen for example, a Locke and a Norrey (those who were caught during fording) is killed in RW so surely they had some amount of men with them. We know Walton Steelshanks returned with his 200 but don't know if the 600 men, most are from houses loyal to the Stark and some have reason to hate Boltons even without RW rejoined or not.

For all we know he could have all the non mounted Karstarks that was searching for Jaime with him, which would be ~700 if his thousand is any close to the truth, meaning he has less than 2300 infantry of his own even without deducting the small contingents of men from other houses.

With all the other smaller details like not getting a tower at MC, they certainly seem less powerful than Karstarks.

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20 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No it really isn't clear. We never get full numbers nor exact definitions on them. As I posted, chiefly clearly could mean other things than majority in numbers. Ramsay is never confirmed to have six hundred men. We have two differing accounts, a fifth of near two thousand and three times of promised two hundred( actually a hundred or two hundred, he just says two when he brings them)both of them from Ramsay(one is and the other is confirmed)

We never get an exact four thousand men, only that he had two in ten return, which could mean a huge range with roundings, he could have ~3000 or ~5000 and just going by .5s rounded up or down we see .33s rounded up too. We only know that Freys lost half a hundred at camps so we can assume Bolton lost a similar number of men that sided with him from among that 3500 but we don't know how many didn't side with him, he still had men from other houses among that, Arya sees mountain clansmen for example, a Locke and a Norrey (those who were caught during fording) is killed in RW so surely they had some amount of men with them. We know Walton Steelshanks returned with his 200 but don't know if the 600 men, most are from houses loyal to the Stark and some have reason to hate Boltons even without RW rejoined or not.

For all we know he could have all the non mounted Karstarks that was searching for Jaime with him, which would be ~700 if his thousand is any close to the truth, meaning he has less than 2300 infantry of his own even without deducting the small contingents of men from other houses.

With all the other smaller details like not getting a tower at MC, they certainly seem less powerful than Karstarks.

Corvo, we have been over this before. Read your post from a neutral perspective. It is like you are desperately searching for any possible interpretation that can somehow get the Bolton numbers low enough for your liking. Why?

Just read what we are told, from multiple sources. That would give us the simplest answer.

Theon says two in ten returns out of near 20k. We know Roose already had 3500 with him at the Twins. There are 600 Northmen that still waited at the ford and there might well have been Bolton cavalry that returned with Robb from the West (more on that below), adding to Roose's 3500.

So, sure, Theon's two in ten obviously didn't mean 4000 precisely, but it clearly wasn't far off the mark. (Note, it could as well have been MORE than 4000 by a couple of hundred, instead of LESS than 4000). So let's go with 4000 as a likely ballpark figure. There is nothing concrete to dispute that number.

Whatever his exact number, the fact is he stated that the majority of them were Boltons. He didn't use the world "chiefly", which you tried to use as your latest basis for bringing down the Bolton numbers in some contrived way. He said "most of them".

As for Ramsay and his "600". As I said before, we have Theon who briefly sees the chaotic battle amidst the houses of Wintertown, from a distance, and makes a quick guess as to Ramsay's numbers. And you have Ramsay, who rode 500 miles with his men, and would know exactly how many they are. I go with Ramsay's statement in this case.

Lastly, let's get back to the cavalry issue. As stated before, 3300 heavy cavalry gathered at Winterfell out of Rob's 12000. That's almost 27% of his total. That means some Houses had to contribute a lot of heavy cavalry. You try to suggest that the poor Masterly Houses like the Glovers and Tallharts contributed disproportionate heavy cavalry, while the historic 2nd most powerful House in the North (the Boltons) did not. That makes no sense.

The logical conclusion is that the Boltons contributed at least the average percentage of cavalry (27% of their force). And perhaps more, to compensate for weaker Houses who brought fewer cavalry. But even at 27%, which is a very reasonable estimate for them, a force of around 2500 Boltons would have had 700 cavalry with them. Meaning that all of Roose's cavalry could not have been with him at the Green Fork, as that army had only 600 cavalry in total, and that included Manderly knights, Freys, and cavalry retinues for each of the lords and lordlings in that host. Meaning Roose could barely have had 500 Bolton cavalry with him. As a result, I strongly suspect that there were 200-300 Bolton cavalry with Robb in the West. And these men would not have been part of Roose's 3500 returning to the Twins.

This means that Roose's Bolton numbers at the Twins would likely have had another 200-300 Boltons added to them after Robb returned from the West.

Taking all of the evidence together, the size of the Bolton host in Robb's original army was likely in the 2500-3000 range.

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1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

We don't have much on how big their land is. Only thing I can remember is their lands is at the headwaters of Honeywater. They are South of Mander and North of Hightower lands, which includes Beesbury which is close by according to the map.

2000 is actually not a bad number from what we can see on the map; Dondarrion and Caron had 4000 infantry and 800 horse put together, which included many freeriders and/or hedge knights  with a similar amount of land (from what I can tell with the map) Florents are (far more) rich so they have more horseman with less amount of men in total.

The Stormlands are smaller and less fertile than the Reach. Also, Garlan being granted Brightwater Keep in ASOS makes him a "great lord" so clearly the castle and its attendant lands are valuable real estate.

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3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Honestly, the number of men the Florents can raise in-text is too low considering they are a principal house of the Reach that rules over a decent-sized chunk of land.

1,000 infantry and ~1,000 mostly heavy horsemen is actually a lot more than it sounds. 14th century Western European military thought held that every heavy cavalryman is equal in value to six standard infantrymen (e.g. spearmen, foot archers, billmen), and every mounted archer or light cavalryman is equal to three (of course, this coming with the assumption that we're talking about well-trained decently-equipped men for both cavalry and infantry, with the same set of standards). Only exceptions were crossbowmen (who were equal to 1 light cavalryman/mounted archer or 1/2 of a heavy cavalryman) and dismounted men-at-arms.

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