Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

[direpupy]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Fair enough. I note your position.

Just to point out that the 25% heavy cavalry ratio was for the force gathered at Winterfell, before any of the more southerly Houses joined. So it was before the addition of the Ryswells, Dustins, Manderlys, Lockes, Slates, Flints of Widows Watch, Flints of Flints Finger and Reeds.

A realistic assessment of the Houses gathered at Winterfell makes it very difficult to give the powerful Boltons a lower than 25% heavy cavalry ratio.

That rather depends on how much horse the houses Tallhart, Cerwyn, Mormont, Umber, Hornwood and Glover brought and of course how many horse house Stark itself fields. Altough i must agree that the mountain clans probably did not contribute much horse if any. Also the Flints of widows watch are not to the south of winterfell so if they send any troops they would be part of the 12000, and maybe they did not send anyone after all there was a sickness at widows watch.

So i simply am not sure you can really assign an 25% cavalry ratio to house Bolton with any certainty.

[Free Northman Reborn]

24 minutes ago, direpupy said:

That rather depends on how much horse the houses Tallhart, Cerwyn, Mormont, Umber, Hornwood and Glover brought and of course how many horse house Stark itself fields. Altough i must agree that the mountain clans probably did not contribute much horse if any. Also the Flints of widows watch are not to the south of winterfell so if they send any troops they would be part of the 12000, and maybe they did not send anyone after all there was a sickness at widows watch.

So i simply am not sure you can really assign an 25% cavalry ratio to house Bolton with any certainty.

I am the first to admit that we cannot assign any specific cavalry numbers to any House, because there are too many variables. But we can determine some parameters.

Firstly, regarding the Flints. Their banners weren't at Winterfell, and Luwin does say that the lords Flint and Manderly, amongst others, will join them along the Kingsroad, but that could be either of the Houses Flint. I'm sure there is a quote that confirms whether the Widows Watch Flints were in the Moat Cailin host eventually, but they weren't at Winterfell.

In any case, given that there were 3000-3400 heavy cavalry at Winterfell, and if we assume that the Clans and Mormonts sent very few, for obvious reasons, then we are left with around 2700-3000 heavy cavalry that had to come from non-Karstark sources.

If the Boltons indeed had 3000 men, and even if they had a 25% cavalry ratio, then it leaves another roughly 2000-2300 heavy cavalry to be sourced from just 6700 men. If you give the Boltons less than 25%, the requirement becomes even more onerous.

Anyway, in the absence of more information, it would be wrong to assume that the Boltons had either more or less than the average heavy cavalry ratio. Which was 25%. Giving them the average is the reasonable estimate to make, with the information at hand.

 

[direpupy]

14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I am the first to admit that we cannot assign any specific cavalry numbers to any House, because there are too many variables. But we can determine some parameters.

Firstly, regarding the Flints. Their banners weren't at Winterfell, and Luwin does say that the lords Flint and Manderly, amongst others, will join them along the Kingsroad, but that could be either of the Houses Flint. I'm sure there is a quote that confirms whether the Widows Watch Flints were in the Moat Cailin host eventually, but they weren't at Winterfell.

In any case, given that there were 3000-3400 heavy cavalry at Winterfell, and if we assume that the Clans and Mormonts sent very few, for obvious reasons, then we are left with around 2700-3000 heavy cavalry that had to come from non-Karstark sources.

If the Boltons indeed had 3000 men, and even if they had a 25% cavalry ratio, then it leaves another roughly 2000-2300 heavy cavalry to be sourced from just 6700 men. If you give the Boltons less than 25%, the requirement becomes even more onerous.

Anyway, in the absence of more information, it would be wrong to assume that the Boltons had either more or less than the average heavy cavalry ratio. Which was 25%. Giving them the average is the reasonable estimate to make, with the information at hand.

 

I have some doubts and reservations but i understand your reasoning in the matter, I just don't necessarily agree with it. The reason for this is the 600 horse left behind at the Dreadfort, because if they have 750 horse at Winterfell and 600 at the Dreadfort that makes 1350 horse total while they have 2250 foot that means over 37% of the total Bolton forces would be horse that's a bit much. Now maybe there where also some foot left behind that Ramsay did not take with him when he attacked Rodric but still it seems excessive.

I personally think a better explanation is that a call went out to area's like the Stony Shore that don't seem to have a Lord and that the men from that area send those that could be deployed quickly which would be the horsemen to Winterfell, these would be Stark men since they have no other Lord.

[Free Northman Reborn]

15 minutes ago, direpupy said:

I have some doubts and reservations but i understand your reasoning in the matter, I just don't necessarily agree with it. The reason for this is the 600 horse left behind at the Dreadfort, because if they have 750 horse at Winterfell and 600 at the Dreadfort that makes 1350 horse total while they have 2250 foot that means over 37% of the total Bolton forces would be horse that's a bit much. Now maybe there where also some foot left behind that Ramsay did not take with him when he attacked Rodric but still it seems excessive.

I personally think a better explanation is that a call went out to area's like the Stony Shore that don't seem to have a Lord and that the men from that area send those that could be deployed quickly which would be the horsemen to Winterfell, these would be Stark men since they have no other Lord.

Well, if we take as truth Ramsay's statement that the 600 men he brought to Winterfell were his father's personal garrison, then the reports Bran receives about the "Bastard of Bolton massing men at the Dreadfort" most likely referred to additional men he was gathering on top of the 600 that Roose already left there. That would signify that there are indeed more men back in the Bolton lands. Infantry, most likely, who were not part of the 600 strong castle garrison.

Also, it is important to realize that there is a heavy cost incurred in keeping men mobilized for extensive periods of time. After the Hornwood conflict ended, there would be no justification for Ramsay to keep those additional men mobilized, as the Dreadfort was already garrisoned by a 600-strong force. That is just about the largest garrison we have seen for a castle anywhere. It could withstand pretty much any assault that could conceivably be launched against the Dreadfort, which is deemed one of the strongest castles in the North. So the 600 would be the only permanent force ready for use when Ramsay raced back to the Dreadfort. It would take considerable time to send out riders and ravens to re-gather forces that had been dispersed at the end of the Hornwood campaign.

Hence, Ramsay took the most readily available men to aid Theon before Ser Rodrik captured Winterfell. That doesn't mean that it is all of the available men in the extensive Bolton lands. Just the ones who were already at the Dreadfort, rather than back at their home keeps and farms.

EDIT

By contrast,  Walder Frey had every motivation to gather as large a force as possible at the Twins, given that he had Tywin Lannister with 20,000 men to his South, and Robb Stark with another 20,000 to his North.

[Corvo the Crow]

On ‎27‎.‎07‎.‎2016 at 10:10 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Stark: 800

Bolton 700

Umber: 400

Karstark: 300

Cerwyn: 200

Hornwood: 200

Tallhart: 200

Glover: 150

Mormont: 50

 

Numbers are like this, total w/Robb, infantry w/Robb, cavalry w/Robb, total(cavalry in total) garrison.

Karstark  2300   2000  300 2850(330) %19.3

Bolton   1900   1600  300 2450(580) %22.5

Stark   3250   1900  1350 3200(1300) %18

Glover    1200   800  400 1600(450) %25

Tallhart  550   350  200    750(225) %26.7

Hornwood  300   210  90 400(100) %25

Mormont   200   170  30 250(35) %20

Umber  950   750  200 1100(220) %13.6

Mountain Clans 500   400  100 3500 (150)

Cerwyn  850   500  350 1150(400) %26.1

I'm not sure what was your reasoning with those numbers but here are mine, as promised. They are more or less in accordance with my interpretation of the information given (which I also mentioned here) and my calculations.

Apart from Umbers, everyone's garrisons are around %20-25. I gave Umbers less because it is mentioned, possibly by Theon, Greatjon took all his men south. His uncles raise boys and old men but Theon also mentions one of them took what little fighting men left.

I also gave some cavalry to Mountain clans because with 40 clans big and small and men of fighting age around the 3000 range, it is possible that they may raise 3-4 cavalry suited for fighting per clan, on average.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

31 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

Numbers are like this, total w/Robb, infantry w/Robb, cavalry w/Robb, total(cavalry in total) garrison.

Karstark  2300   2000  300 2850(330) %19.3

Bolton   1900   1600  300 2450(580) %22.5

Stark   3250   1900  1350 3200(1300) %18

Glover    1200   800  400 1600(450) %25

Tallhart  550   350  200    750(225) %26.7

Hornwood  300   210  90 400(100) %25

Mormont   200   170  30 250(35) %20

Umber  950   750  200 1100(220) %13.6

Mountain Clans 500   400  100 3500 (150)

Cerwyn  850   500  350 1150(400) %26.1

I'm not sure what was your reasoning with those numbers but here are mine, as promised. They are more or less in accordance with my interpretation of the information given (which I also mentioned here) and my calculations.

So the above flatly ignores the statement that the majority of the 4000 men returning from the South were Boltons.

It apparently also assumes as many as 1500 men from Houses other than the Boltons or Karstarks in Roose's force at the Twins, boggling the mind as to why Roose called the host Dreadfort men in chief, with some Karstarks added. An inexplicable description from Roose indeed, if there were 1500 men from other Houses in the 3500.

EDIT

And I forgot to add, that the above obviously also ignores Ramsay's statement that he brought 3x200 = 600 men from the Dreadfort garrison, who appear to have been mostly mounted.

So three specific references that need to be ignored for the sake of downsizing the Boltons' overall strength.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

40 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So the above flatly ignores the statement that the majority of the 4000 men returning from the South were Boltons.

It apparently also assumes as many as 1500 men from Houses other than the Boltons or Karstarks in Roose's force at the Twins, boggling the mind as to why Roose called the host Dreadfort men in chief, with some Karstarks added. An inexplicable description from Roose indeed, if there were 1500 men from other Houses in the 3500.

 

No, it is you who flatly ignore everything I have said so far, but I'll say some of it again.

1 - It isn't stated anywhere that a number of FOUR THOUSAND returned from south and MAJORITY of it are Bolt-ons. I couldn't find that information anywhere, especially in the Theon chapter you mentioned but maybe I missed it even though I read it a couple of times to confirm what you told.

2 - Roose has the majority of 3000 foot and 400-500 cavalry.As he states in the Catelyn chapter where Robb's two armies meet in Twins.

3 - There are about a THOUSAND Karstarks roaming the land in search of Jaime, this is AFTER Duskendale took place.

4 - A THIRD of Robb's foot lost in Duskendale.

The first three are directly related to your questions. The fourth, which I added as a bonus, is also related though not as directly. I'd add some more calculations in accordance with these but I feel no need to bother myself because you will overlook them again and will go on from just two things, Roose's ~3,5k and Ramsays "Three times that" "600".

Here are some information that MAY speak of numbers and relative strengths even though no number is actually given.

Here are some more, not as direct, for my reasoning.

1 - Cerwyns, who are less than a days ride from Winterfell, which has a garrison of 600, leave at least 300 men in their garrison. This may speak: of a lesser percentage of garrison because even if there were to be any danger in the North, they'd be much safer than any other vassal due to their close proximity.

2 - Greatjon Umber denies marching behind Hornwoods and Cerwyns. This may speak: two things, either he is a more powerful lord or he has brought more men.

3 - Karstarks and Umbers are given a tower in Moat Cailin. This may speak:

For Karstarks: Either they have brought the most men and given the honor of holding a tower or when they reached MC, they had the most men, and there may or may not have been a lord with more numbers who have arrived later. 

For Umbers: They had the second most men or he was given it because he would be given  even if he had no men with him, because he is Robb's right hand man.

4 - Starks have been the major power in the North historically, only after the Manderlys arrival and all those lands and priviliges they are given may they have become weaker on their own compared to a vassal. This isn't very important because even if the Manderlys decided to betray the Starks and want to control the North, which they'd not, no house would ever allow them due to being southrons worshipping seven who were taken in by the Starks when they had nothing left and even their very lives were in danger.

5 - Boltons, who were the biggest opponents of the Starks and gave them trouble for maybe thousands of years, have lost the majority of their lands.

I can add a lot more but even these should be enough.

As a final note, I am very eager to learn what was your reasoning behind these numbers, which house would get how many cavalry and infantry in Robb's army and how many in total. I have given my reasons, in this post and the ones earlier but I have yet to see yours apart from your interpretation of just the Roose and Ramsays disputable numbers.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No, it is you who flatly ignore everything I have said so far, but I'll say some of it again.

1 - It isn't stated anywhere that a number of FOUR THOUSAND returned from south and MAJORITY of it are Bolt-ons. I couldn't find that information anywhere, especially in the Theon chapter you mentioned but maybe I missed it even though I read it a couple of times to confirm what you told.

2 - Roose has the majority of 3000 foot and 400-500 cavalry.As he states in the Catelyn chapter where Robb's two armies meet in Twins.

3 - There are about a THOUSAND Karstarks roaming the land in search of Jaime, this is AFTER Duskendale took place.

4 - A THIRD of Robb's foot lost in Duskendale.

The first three are directly related to your questions. The fourth, which I added as a bonus, is also related though not as directly. I'd add some more calculations in accordance with these but I feel no need to bother myself because you will overlook them again and will go on from just two things, Roose's ~3,5k and Ramsays "Three times that" "600".

Here are some information that MAY speak of numbers and relative strengths even though no number is actually given.

Here are some more, not as direct, for my reasoning.

1 - Cerwyns, who are less than a days ride from Winterfell, which has a garrison of 600, leave at least 300 men in their garrison. This may speak: of a lesser percentage of garrison because even if there were to be any danger in the North, they'd be much safer than any other vassal due to their close proximity.

2 - Greatjon Umber denies marching behind Hornwoods and Cerwyns. This may speak: two things, either he is a more powerful lord or he has brought more men.

3 - Karstarks and Umbers are given a tower in Moat Cailin. This may speak:

For Karstarks: Either they have brought the most men and given the honor of holding a tower or when they reached MC, they had the most men, and there may or may not have been a lord with more numbers who have arrived later. 

For Umbers: They had the second most men or he was given it because he would be given  even if he had no men with him, because he is Robb's right hand man.

4 - Starks have been the major power in the North historically, only after the Manderlys arrival and all those lands and priviliges they are given may they have become weaker on their own compared to a vassal. This isn't very important because even if the Manderlys decided to betray the Starks and want to control the North, which they'd not, no house would ever allow them due to being southrons worshipping seven who were taken in by the Starks when they had nothing left and even their very lives were in danger.

5 - Boltons, who were the biggest opponents of the Starks and gave them trouble for maybe thousands of years, have lost the majority of their lands.

I can add a lot more but even these should be enough.

Theon, in Dance:

"Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb, or near enough to make no matter, but only two in ten were coming back, and most of those were Dreadfort men."

When asked by Catelyn how many men he brought to the Twins, Roose replied: "Some five hundred horse and three thousand foot, my lady. Dreadfort men, in chief, and some from Karhold."

The above really speaks for itself.

The 1000 Karstark men roaming the land are doing exactly that. Roaming the land. They are not with Roose. 300 of them are the cavalry that departed from Riverrun. They would not have been with Roose in the first place. 700 more would be infantry, that departed from Roose's host at some point. So, even if some of these Karstark men had returned to Roose, they would be a fraction of that 700 only.

But let's say a massive 50% of those 700 somehow magically returned to Roose. In your scenario Roose had 1900 men to start with. After the Green Fork and the rest of his campaign, lets say he has 1750 left exactly. Add 350 returned Karstarks, and you get only to 2100. That leaves another 1400 men from other Houses in the 3500. Yet Roose makes mention of only Boltons, and some Karstarks. Bizarre, if he has 1400 men from other Houses, but only a few hundred Karstarks.

The above shoots your argument to pieces. The rest of your comments are just vague references that could fit either scenario.

Come on Corvo. Admit it. Your scenario makes no sense. You are swimming against the stream (of evidence).

 

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

 

I give up. My numbers can not be proven no more than yours but unlike you I am trying to use the information from the books to do some calculations to make mine as reasonable as possible. I asked you to give some reason as to why your numbers are like they are yet, instead of giving anything for other houses numbers and reasons for it, you are still rambling about Roose and 3500. By the way that two quotes, they do really speak for themselves as I have mentioned them earlier than you and used them in my calculations to show my numbers are plausible. They can be used for your argument as well as mine because they are vague, especially Theon's. 

Again, I give up, because no matter how many numbers or quotes or other information I'd bring, I'd be swimming against the stream and you will shoot all of them with Roose and 3500 men. Instead of going with Roose and 3500, just give Ramsay some twenty good men, it'd be way more efficient to make my scenario senseless.

[Free Northman Reborn]

32 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I give up. My numbers can not be proven no more than yours but unlike you I am trying to use the information from the books to do some calculations to make mine as reasonable as possible. I asked you to give some reason as to why your numbers are like they are yet, instead of giving anything for other houses numbers and reasons for it, you are still rambling about Roose and 3500. By the way that two quotes, they do really speak for themselves as I have mentioned them earlier than you and used them in my calculations to show my numbers are plausible. They can be used for your argument as well as mine because they are vague, especially Theon's. 

Again, I give up, because no matter how many numbers or quotes or other information I'd bring, I'd be swimming against the stream and you will shoot all of them with Roose and 3500 men. Instead of going with Roose and 3500, just give Ramsay some twenty good men, it'd be way more efficient to make my scenario senseless.

No need for that.

I don't try and justify the numbers of the other lords, because we have almost no quotes to justify anything for them. The Tallharts could have 1000 men at Winterfell, and the Glovers 300, or the other way around. A guess of 600 each is probably more likely, but the truth is, we just have no idea, and no way of guessing it until more information is available.

The Bolton numbers, however, CAN be assessed, because of specific quotes that are given. Your approach is to pick a low number of the Boltons as a starting point, and then to interpret EVERY quote given about their strength as being an overstatement, in order to work back to that number.

If you start with a blank slate, and just look at the quotes relating to the Boltons, you have:

Relevant quote 1:

Roose tells Catelyn most of this 3500 men are Boltons, with some Karstarks present too.

Neutral thought process by someone with a blank slate: "OK. So it seems this force of 3500 consists mostly of House Bolton, with House Karstark a significant minority, and no other Houses of large enough number to be worth mentioning. So at a minimum we are talking more than 1750 Boltons. But then, that would make the Kartstark contingent almost as large as the Bolton portion, so most likey we are dealing with at least a 2-1 ratio here, to justify the description. So that would make it around 2300 Boltons, and around 1200 Karstarks. But hang on, we also find out that of the original 2300 Karstarks, 300 are cavalry with Robb, so that leaves 2000 with Roose. But the Karstarks suffered heavy losses at the Green Fork, so that 2000 number should be further reduced. And then we are told that all the remaining Karstark foot is sent off with Harrion to Duskendale, where they are slaughtered. So really, there should be almost no Karstarks with Roose. So any that he does have, would be various remnants that found their way to him again. So most likely they only number a few hundred at most. And yet, they still make out the only other significant group in the 3500. Roose doesn't even refer to "assorted others', of any noteworthy number.  Hence, we are likely talking about maybe 300 or so Karstarks at most. So let's say 500 of the total force are non-Boltons, to be safe. That seems reasonable.

Relevant quote 2:

Theon says that 2 in 10 of 20k men made it back to the North, and most of those are Bolton men.

Neutral interpretation by same person as above: OK, so this quote totally reinforces the conclusion I reached previously, as 3000 is indeed the majority of 4000. And a large enough majority at that, that no signfiicant component from another House is even worth mentioning.

Relevant quote 3:

Ramsay tells Theon that he brought 3x200 men to Winterfell. From the battlements it is observed that this force consists of a large number of mounted lancers, who charge, wheel and charge again repeatedly to destroy the superior 2000 strong force of Ser Rodrik.

Neutral interpretation again: OK, so clearly these Boltons have a large contingent of cavalry - approaching 600 men in number - still remaining back at the Dreadfort. Added to the previous quotes, they clearly must be a very powerful House. Oh wait, in the backstory history book we actually learn that they were THE most powerful rivals to the Starks in the North. Well, this all ties together perfectly then. My previous interpretations appear to have been rock solid, and the evidence for this strength just keeps building.

The point is, all of the above merely requires us to believe the quotes we read. Nothing more. No mental shenanigans. No juggling of numbers. No trying to find reasons to view quotes as overstated, as rounded up, and never down, as inaccurate or as just not fitting with one's internal narrative. In short, it just make sense.

[Corvo the Crow]

7 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No need for that.

I don't try and justify the numbers of the other lords, because we have almost no quotes to justify anything for them. The Tallharts could have 1000 men at Winterfell, and the Glovers 300, or the other way around. A guess of 600 each is probably more likely, but the truth is, we just have no idea, and no way of guessing it until more information is available.

The Bolton numbers, however, CAN be assessed, because of specific quotes that are given. Your approach is to pick a low number of the Boltons as a starting point, and then to interpret EVERY quote given about their strength as being an overstatement, in order to work back to that number.

If you start with a blank slate, and just look at the quotes relating to the Boltons, you have:

Relevant quote 1:

Roose tells Catelyn most of this 3500 men are Boltons, with some Karstarks present too.

Neutral thought process by someone with a blank slate: "OK. So it seems this force of 3500 consists mostly of House Bolton, with House Karstark a significant minority, and no other Houses of large enough number to be worth mentioning. So at a minimum we are talking more than 1750 Boltons. But then, that would make the Kartstark contingent almost as large as the Bolton portion, so most likey we are dealing with at least a 2-1 ratio here, to justify the description. So that would make it around 2300 Boltons, and around 1200 Karstarks. But hang on, we also find out that of the original 2300 Karstarks, 300 are cavalry with Robb, so that leaves 2000 with Roose. But the Karstarks suffered heavy losses at the Green Fork, so that 2000 number should be further reduced. And then we are told that all the remaining Karstark foot is sent off with Harrion to Duskendale, where they are slaughtered. So really, there should be almost no Karstarks with Roose. So any that he does have, would be various remnants that found their way to him again. So most likely they only number a few hundred at most. And yet, they still make out the only other significant group in the 3500. Roose doesn't even refer to "assorted others', of any noteworthy number.  Hence, we are likely talking about maybe 300 or so Karstarks at most. So let's say 500 of the total force are non-Boltons, to be safe. That seems reasonable.

Relevant quote 2:

Theon says that 2 in 10 of 20k men made it back to the North, and most of those are Bolton men.

Neutral interpretation by same person as above: OK, so this quote totally reinforces the conclusion I reached previously, as 3000 is indeed the majority of 4000. And a large enough majority at that, that no signfiicant component from another House is even worth mentioning.

Relevant quote 3:

Ramsay tells Theon that he brought 3x200 men to Winterfell. From the battlements it is observed that this force consists of a large number of mounted lancers, who charge, wheel and charge again repeatedly to destroy the superior 2000 strong force of Ser Rodrik.

Neutral interpretation again: OK, so clearly these Boltons have a large contingent of cavalry - approaching 600 men in number - still remaining back at the Dreadfort. Added to the previous quotes, they clearly must be a very powerful House. Oh wait, in the backstory history book we actually learn that they were THE most powerful rivals to the Starks in the North. Well, this all ties together perfectly then. My previous interpretations appear to have been rock solid, and the evidence for this strength just keeps building.

The point is, all of the above merely requires us to believe the quotes we read. Nothing more. No mental shenanigans. No juggling of numbers. No trying to find reasons to view quotes as overstated, as rounded up, and never down, as inaccurate or as just not fitting with one's internal narrative. In short, it just make sense.

I have given my answers to all those relevant quotes earlier, hell I've came forward with them myself. Obviously you'd give boltons ten thousand if you could.

So am I to believe Boltons of old were very daft that against Starks 3000 they couldn't do anything with 4000, possibly more? And judging by the 4k they have currently, they had way many more men than that because they controlled a far larger amount of land which was far more suitable for farming to sustain a population to draw their levies from. But don't answer because I do not care since I already know it, Boltons control 4k now, as much as Freys, a house which is far more richer, owns lands far more suitable for farming and most likely roughly the same amount of land if not more so even with these facts they can hold 4000, then Boltons of old must've held 10k at the very least, so here's the 10k I was talking about earlier.

About those blank slate processess of thought, I can do the same and did so, but unlike you not with just tid bits of information I have chosen that will suit my needs to justify anything, but with everyt bit of information I could find.

So Theon is so dumb he thinks 600 is 1/5 of near 2000. Ramsay is also so stupid he thinks 3 times of 200 is 1/5 of 2000 and confirms Theon on that. Theon, after all those flaying had an enlightenment and is not so dumb now, he  knows 20k or near enough that number went south and exactly 2/10 of 20k and not roughly 2/10 of a number close to that returned.

Also Roose is such a shrewd men he takes the 600, of whom most if not all are loyalists and would be a problem after the RW but leaves a thousand Karstark men to roam around the land who'd be of assistance to him, because he doesn't trust the Lannisters and leaves them back as a back up plan to give Lannisters a pain in the ass if things do not go his way and he also likes a challenge. He also sends Steelshanks Walton with 200 men to take Jaime back so he actually has way more men and while he sent all the remaining Karstark men off to die, that thousand mentioned earlier are so stupid they couldn't comprehend they are dead and they are searching for Jaime since now they are dead they have mysterious ways of communication and gaining information so they know Rickard would give Alys' hand to them.

So flaying serves stupid Theon, he becomes as wise as the most well learned maester. Ramsay is dumb as always can't do simple maths. Roose is so shrewd he leaves 1k Karstarks, who are actually wights who want Alys' hand, not for marriage but for wightly reasons, back because he knows even though 2k men couldn't held their own against the mountain, that 1k wights would cause the Lannisters problem if he so needs. He also likes bringing men of questionable loyalty with him so any lord who'd object him can gain the support of a number of men who'd be a decent force with all the losses suffered by other houses because he doesn't like it too easy.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I have given my answers to all those relevant quotes earlier, hell I've came forward with them myself. Obviously you'd give boltons ten thousand if you could.

So am I to believe Boltons of old were very daft that against Starks 3000 they couldn't do anything with 4000, possibly more? And judging by the 4k they have currently, they had way many more men than that because they controlled a far larger amount of land which was far more suitable for farming to sustain a population to draw their levies from. But don't answer because I do not care since I already know it, Boltons control 4k now, as much as Freys, a house which is far more richer, owns lands far more suitable for farming and most likely roughly the same amount of land if not more so even with these facts they can hold 4000, then Boltons of old must've held 10k at the very least, so here's the 10k I was talking about earlier.

About those blank slate processess of thought, I can do the same and did so, but unlike you not with just tid bits of information I have chosen that will suit my needs to justify anything, but with everyt bit of information I could find.

So Theon is so dumb he thinks 600 is 1/5 of near 2000. Ramsay is also so stupid he thinks 3 times of 200 is 1/5 of 2000 and confirms Theon on that. Theon, after all those flaying had an enlightenment and is not so dumb now, he  knows 20k or near enough that number went south and exactly 2/10 of 20k and not roughly 2/10 of a number close to that returned.

Also Roose is such a shrewd men he takes the 600, of whom most if not all are loyalists and would be a problem after the RW but leaves a thousand Karstark men to roam around the land who'd be of assistance to him, because he doesn't trust the Lannisters and leaves them back as a back up plan to give Lannisters a pain in the ass if things do not go his way and he also likes a challenge. He also sends Steelshanks Walton with 200 men to take Jaime back so he actually has way more men and while he sent all the remaining Karstark men off to die, that thousand mentioned earlier are so stupid they couldn't comprehend they are dead and they are searching for Jaime since now they are dead they have mysterious ways of communication and gaining information so they know Rickard would give Alys' hand to them.

So flaying serves stupid Theon, he becomes as wise as the most well learned maester. Ramsay is dumb as always can't do simple maths. Roose is so shrewd he leaves 1k Karstarks, who are actually wights who want Alys' hand, not for marriage but for wightly reasons, back because he knows even though 2k men couldn't held their own against the mountain, that 1k wights would cause the Lannisters problem if he so needs. He also likes bringing men of questionable loyalty with him so any lord who'd object him can gain the support of a number of men who'd be a decent force with all the losses suffered by other houses because he doesn't like it too easy.

Corvo

Is it really a big deal that the Boltons today can potentially raise more men than the Starks can from Winterfell's immediate surroundings? You say the Boltons of old must have been able to raise even more, citing all the lands they controlled back then - obviously through additional vassals of theirs at the time, of course.

Well, back when the Red Kings ruled the lands between the Last River, the White Knife and the Sheepshead Hills (basically their current territory, plus maybe a third of the Umber lands, plus the Hornwood lands and the lands of some lesser lords from around the Long Lake area added, let's look at what the Starks ruled: They ruled everything else, from the Sunset Sea to the Narrow Sea, from the Wall to the Neck. An area about 6 times as large as that ruled by the Boltons.

Note that the Red Kings did not start out with their maximum domain. They started out as petty kings, ruling just the Dreadfort, just like the Starks started out ruling only Winterfell and its surroundings. But then they all started expanding. Only the Starks expanded far more effectively than the Boltons did. They conquered the Dustins, the Glovers, the Riders from the Rills, the Blackwoods, the Umbers and Marsh Kings. And a host of other Houses that don't even exist anymore.

So it would not matter if the Boltons could raise 10,000 men back then, or whatever the number was, because the Starks could raise many times that number.

And in fact, if you look at the rest of the Seven Kingdoms, it seems quite likely that the Freys can raise more men than the Tullys can raise from Riverrun and its surroundings. The Yronwood's ruled half of the entire Dorne, and even the 2nd and 3rd most powerful Dornish kingdoms of the time did not even include House Martell. So it is quite possible that the Yronwood can today still raise more men than the Martells.

It would not be at all suprising if the Royce's can raise more men than the Arryns can directly. We know the Hightowers can raise more men than the Tyrells themselves.

So the pattern is established. Any of the Houses listed above can only raise the men they do through their vassals. In Manderly's case, for example, those vassals include 12 lords and 100 landed knights. Well the thing is, in the Starks' case, their vassals include the Mormonts, Umbers, Karstarks, Boltons, Manderlys, Tallhars, Glovers, Cerwyns, Hornwoods, Flints, etc. etc., and all of THEIR vassals too.

So that's all that matters. Not how many men they can raise today from their immediate surroundings. If that was what counted, then the Starks would never have given away Karhold to a vassal branch. They would never have given the Wolf's Den to the Manderlys. They would have personally taken over Deepwood Motte when they defeated the Glover Kings. And the same with Barrowton when they defeated the Barrow Kings. Then ALL of those territories would have been personal Stark land.

But that's not how the system works. These are all Stark vassals today. So their men are part of the Stark's total strength. The Boltons are left with say 4000 men. The Starks, today, have raised hosts as large as 30,000 men.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 29-7-2016 at 4:50 AM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Since we know how many Freys were lost, we have to guess a similar number of Boltons/Karstarks were lost. That's a "rough" incredibly high death total of 50.

Could you perhaps point me to that quote?

[direpupy]

18 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, if we take as truth Ramsay's statement that the 600 men he brought to Winterfell were his father's personal garrison, then the reports Bran receives about the "Bastard of Bolton massing men at the Dreadfort" most likely referred to additional men he was gathering on top of the 600 that Roose already left there. That would signify that there are indeed more men back in the Bolton lands. Infantry, most likely, who were not part of the 600 strong castle garrison.

Also, it is important to realize that there is a heavy cost incurred in keeping men mobilized for extensive periods of time. After the Hornwood conflict ended, there would be no justification for Ramsay to keep those additional men mobilized, as the Dreadfort was already garrisoned by a 600-strong force. That is just about the largest garrison we have seen for a castle anywhere. It could withstand pretty much any assault that could conceivably be launched against the Dreadfort, which is deemed one of the strongest castles in the North. So the 600 would be the only permanent force ready for use when Ramsay raced back to the Dreadfort. It would take considerable time to send out riders and ravens to re-gather forces that had been dispersed at the end of the Hornwood campaign.

Hence, Ramsay took the most readily available men to aid Theon before Ser Rodrik captured Winterfell. That doesn't mean that it is all of the available men in the extensive Bolton lands. Just the ones who were already at the Dreadfort, rather than back at their home keeps and farms.

EDIT

By contrast,  Walder Frey had every motivation to gather as large a force as possible at the Twins, given that he had Tywin Lannister with 20,000 men to his South, and Robb Stark with another 20,000 to his North.

I really don't understand the point you are trying to make since i actually said that there might be some foot left at the Dreadfort.

The point is that even with more foot its still a to massive amount of horse so i still don't see any reason to assume the 25% horse ratio for house Bolton.

12 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Relevant quote 1:

Roose tells Catelyn most of this 3500 men are Boltons, with some Karstarks present too.

Neutral thought process by someone with a blank slate: "OK. So it seems this force of 3500 consists mostly of House Bolton, with House Karstark a significant minority, and no other Houses of large enough number to be worth mentioning. So at a minimum we are talking more than 1750 Boltons. But then, that would make the Kartstark contingent almost as large as the Bolton portion, so most likey we are dealing with at least a 2-1 ratio here, to justify the description. So that would make it around 2300 Boltons, and around 1200 Karstarks. But hang on, we also find out that of the original 2300 Karstarks, 300 are cavalry with Robb, so that leaves 2000 with Roose. But the Karstarks suffered heavy losses at the Green Fork, so that 2000 number should be further reduced. And then we are told that all the remaining Karstark foot is sent off with Harrion to Duskendale, where they are slaughtered. So really, there should be almost no Karstarks with Roose. So any that he does have, would be various remnants that found their way to him again. So most likely they only number a few hundred at most. And yet, they still make out the only other significant group in the 3500. Roose doesn't even refer to "assorted others', of any noteworthy number.  Hence, we are likely talking about maybe 300 or so Karstarks at most. So let's say 500 of the total force are non-Boltons, to be safe. That seems reasonable.

 

 

As to the part i bolded about the other houses these would be the remaining foot of the houses Tallhart, Cerwyn, Mormont, Umber, Hornwood, Glover, Ryswell, Dustin, Manderly, Locke, Slate, Flint of Widows Watch, Flint of Flints Finger, Reed, The mountain clans and house Stark itself. Even if only 50 men for each or these survived you are talking 700 men, now 50 men is not worth mentioning since its a small number but as you can see together they ad up.

And i know he left 600 men at the ford but that does not mean there where no more men of other houses that survived its just that no house had enough men in the 3500 to be mentioned.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Could you perhaps point me to that quote?

 

Here:

Quote

It was vengeance, we had a right to our vengeance. It was war. Aegon, we called him Jinglebell, a poor lackwit never hurt anyone, Lady Stark cut his throat. We lost half a hundred men in the camps. Ser Garse Goodbrook, Kyra's husband, and Ser Tytos, Jared's son . . . someone smashed his head in with an axe . . . Stark's direwolf killed four of our wolfhounds and tore the kennelmaster's arm off his shoulder, even after we'd filled him full of quarrels . . ."

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Could you perhaps point me to that quote?

The only place where something of that sort is cited is Merrett Frey's Epilogue. But Edwyn and Black Walder could also mention something like that in AFfC.

However, while the Frey men might have been fine with murdering those traitorous and dishonorable Northmen there is actually a pretty good chance that at least some of Roose's men were in the end abhorred by what he commanded them to do and slipped away in the night. Especially those few who were neither Dreadfort nor Karhold men.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

8 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I have given my answers to all those relevant quotes earlier, hell I've came forward with them myself. Obviously you'd give boltons ten thousand if you could.

So am I to believe Boltons of old were very daft that against Starks 3000 they couldn't do anything with 4000, possibly more?

Ignoring current military numbers, I'd imagine that the Starks of old had more lands. House Cerywn and Tallhart seem quite new (neither are mentioned in the world book), so the lands ruled by them would be larger.

And then of course there are the Mountain Clans, a people that regularly send some of its members to Wintertown to survive Winter. They are basically Stark vassals (with a little more independence). I imagine they have featured regularly in Stark armies over the centuries.

Lastly we really have no idea how the territories are split up in the North (or Westeros). The Starks may have patches of land throughout the expansive North with many other Masterly Houses that rule the Stark lands in their absence.

[Lord Varys]

33 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Ignoring current military numbers, I'd imagine that the Starks of old had more lands. House Cerywn and Tallhart seem quite new (neither are mentioned in the world book), so the lands ruled by them would be larger.

And then of course there are the Mountain Clans, a people that regularly send some of its members to Wintertown to survive Winter. They are basically Stark vassals (with a little more independence). I imagine they have featured regularly in Stark armies over the centuries.

Lastly we really have no idea how the territories are split up in the North (or Westeros). The Starks may have patches of land throughout the expansive North with many other Masterly Houses that rule the Stark lands in their absence.

Well, the question how large the lands of an overland (i.e. how much land his own peasants control) is very difficult to say. If you take the Crownlands as an example then even the king has handed the land directly outside his capital to smaller lords and such.

The same should go for the Arryns and the Lannisters. We don't hear anything about vast lands controlled by Arryn or Lannister peasants around their castles.

The Starks could have vast lands east of the Kingsroad which they might directly control. But then, in charge of those lands would still be petty lords and such. But considering that Bran was expected to have his own keep one day the Starks might actually have some unmanned castles somewhere in the North we don't know anything about. Say, on Cape Kraken or even somewhere east of the Kingsroad.

If masterly houses like the Glovers and Tallharts effectively are landed knights then they should be less independent from Winterfell than lordly houses but we don't really know anything about those details.

Though technically this could mean that all the lands west of Winterfell, the Wolfswood, and the lands around Torrhen's Square might be effectively Stark lands.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the question how large the lands of an overland (i.e. how much land his own peasants control) is very difficult to say. If you take the Crownlands as an example then even the king has handed the land directly outside his capital to smaller lords and such.

The same should go for the Arryns and the Lannisters. We don't hear anything about vast lands controlled by Arryn or Lannister peasants around their castles.

The Starks could have vast lands east of the Kingsroad which they might directly control. But then, in charge of those lands would still be petty lords and such. But considering that Bran was expected to have his own keep one day the Starks might actually have some unmanned castles somewhere in the North we don't know anything about. Say, on Cape Kraken or even somewhere east of the Kingsroad.

If masterly houses like the Glovers and Tallharts effectively are landed knights then they should be less independent from Winterfell than lordly houses but we don't really know anything about those details.

Though technically this could mean that all the lands west of Winterfell, the Wolfswood, and the lands around Torrhen's Square might be effectively Stark lands.

Well we have the example of the Glovers. The only House where we get a reasonably acccurate territorial radius for. And we only get it because we happen to be given Stannis' marching pace per day. We are told that Stannis's army marches 22 miles on day one, and his vanguard leaves Gallbart Glover's lands and heads into the deep Wolfswood on day two, after marching another 24 miles.

So it seems the Glover lands extends around 45 miles to the SouthEast of Deepwood Motte. In the case of the Starks it is obviously less than that, at least in the direction of Cerwyn Castle, which is only half a day's ride away.

In any case, the information is too sketchy to make any conclusions. We don't know if there were vassals of the Glovers on the 45 miles of land that the army crossed. I'm sure there would be, as you likely have keeps guarding every group of villages along the way, and each keep would probably have some kind of knight, master or custodian, exercising control of the villages surrounding it.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well we have the example of the Glovers. The only House where we get a reasonable acccurate territorial radius for. And we only get it because we happen to be given Stannis' marching pace per day. We are told that Stannis's army marches 22 miles on day one, and his vanguard leaves Gallbart Glover's lands and heads into the deep Wolfswood on day two, after marching another 24 miles.

So it seems the Glover lands extends around 45 miles to the SouthEast of Deepwood Motte. In the case of the Starks it is obviously less than that, at least in the direction of Cerwyn Castle, which is only half a day's ride away.

In any case, the information is too sketchy to make any conclusions. We don't know if there were vassals of the Glovers on the 45 miles of land that the army crossed. I'm sure there would be, as you likely have keeps guarding every group of villages along the way, and each keep would probably have some kind of knight, master or custodian, exercising control of the villages surrounding it.

This doesn't give us a radius. It would only be a radius if the Glover lands form a (rough) circle. But we don't have any reason to assume that they do.

We know that the Starks hunt in the Wolfswood, so it is pretty clear that a huge chunk of it is Stark property, presumably a former royal hunting ground where nobody but the Starks was (and still is) allowed to hunt. That would mean that not many people would live in that forest, perhaps people were even forbidden to venture into it and settle there.

Not to mention that there is also the chance that there are some unclaimed lands in-between certain regions. The North is vast enough to include a lot of no man's land, at least in the sense that no people are living there and the Starks have never given it to some vassal.

You can also not speculate about the size of the Cerwyn lands. Knowing that Winterfell is close by doesn't mean the Cerwyns don't control a lot of land down south of Castle Cerwyn. The idea that a castle usually is somewhat in the middle of the lands it controls makes no sense.