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NBA PLAYOFFS cont'd - Riders on the Storm


Relic

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As others have said, Green and Curry are out of form at the worst possible time and the Thunder seem to be taking advantage. Maybe OKC is a tough playoff environment to play in? The Warriors are used to having the roar of Oracle at their back to give them that extra jolt of adrenaline, it might be that Chesapeake Arena (or whatever it's called) is giving them a dose of their own medicine.

I'm expecting to see a better showing from the Warriors in Game 5 at home. I only had a chance to watch the first quarter of Game 4 (because of timezones) but they kept getting to the rim and then blowing the close in shots. With the crowd at their back and in familiar surroundings, I'd expect them to make a few more. Reckon it will end up being a nail-biter that will come down to one team having a shot for the win/tie, and that team blowing it.

ST

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I didn't watch too many regular season games this year (I never do).  But I read plenty of articles all year about how good the Warriors and especially Curry has been this year.  I am frankly disappointed that I'm just not seeing that.  I mean, Curry has made some nice shots, especially in game 2, but through four games, I'm not even sure I could call him the third best player in this series.  Westbrook is dominating him.  There were times in game 4 when he was obviously flustered, missing shots badly that weren't even well defended. 

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I don't want to bet against the Warriors in Game 5 at home.

If they can get that one, I think it gets interesting.  What's been the theme all season on the Thunder?  Get a big lead, only to watch it slip away in the fourth quarter.

If they don't close it out at GS, I think there's a real chance the pressure gets to them and then you see that theme played out writ large.

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Green is -73 over the last two games. The Dubs cannot win if he continues to be dead weight.

Curry also has looked bad, and he's missing a ton of shots he normally makes. I wonder if that's more due to injury or Russ being all over him.

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The Thunder are substantially bigger and more athletic at every single position on the floor. In spite of their gaudy numbers, the Warriors are a very unathletic, but highly skilled roster. The Thunder can play a "small ball" lineup that has essentially 3 guards and a power forward that goes 6'3" 6'4" 6'7" 6'11" 7'0".  The warriors are trying to do the same thing with a bunch of 6'7" guys.  That Thunder lineup has outscored the Warriors 91-35 over the last two games.

 

They've also figured a way to get Roberson involved on offense, who was dead weight all year on that side of the ball. The Warriors want to go small, which let's the Thunder play Roberson as a post, get in the lane and get easy layups.  And Billy Donovan is coaching circles around Kerr.

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2 hours ago, Relic said:

So even with GS down 3-1 they are still extremely dangerous. Anyone have predictions for game 5?

If Curry doesn't start looking like himself, it's very likely over. Woj has a report that he's at 70% from the knee injury but it's hard to make sense of that when he's had transcendent moments like the 3rd quarter of game 2 or the end of the Blazers series. The one area I could see it affecting him is defense, and he definitely has looked less twitchy athletic...but then why put him on Westbrook at all? It's all insane. 

Anyway the Warriors will get a big boost from homecourt and have to assume regression to the mean dictates they play better unless Durant and Adams have broken Draymond's mind. If Warriors can win this one it puts the pressure back on OKC for game 6. But I'm admittedly skeptical based on these last two games. Klay Thompson is the only guy playing with any kind urgency. 

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I'm starting to imagine the lineup matchups with a Toronto vs Oklahoma finals? In a sense I would love that, ive been pining for playoff upsets all year. But in Clev. and GS's defense it's not over till elimination, so we shall see how they play out soon.

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7 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I'm starting to imagine the lineup matchups with a Toronto vs Oklahoma finals? In a sense I would love that, ive been pining for playoff upsets all year. But in Clev. and GS's defense it's not over till elimination, so we shall see how they play out soon.

While I am enjoying the suddenly competitive ECF, I do not think it will last.  Toronto was making a lot of contested shots in game 4, and I'm skeptical they'll be able to do that twice more. 

On the other hand, while it is always dangerous to count out GSW, I think OKC has this one.  Curry isn't getting healthier, and without him Thompson/Green are less effective and the role players just aren't enough. 

And that's fine with me.  An OKC vs CLE final could be really great. 

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Beyond whatever the hell is going on with the Warriors, what the Thunder are doing legitimately amazing. To go 7-3 against a historically dominant 67 win team and an even more dominant 73 win team, I mean, no team has ever done anything close to this.  And not just eking out wins either - they've shattered both. They battered the Spurs going big with Adams and Kanter and they've wrecked the Warriors going small with their Westbrook/Roberson/Waiters/Durant/Ibaka lineup. Whatever you're great at, they've been even better. 

It does seem with where the game is going, you want a lineup 1-5 of versatile, long, athletic swing guys. Milwaukee has the right idea - their only issue is none of their guys have discernible skills. Well, it seems like the OKC team we've seen over the last two weeks is the perfect incarnation of athleticism, length and effort defensively. And watching how they're coming together under Billy Donovan has me...I don't know...a little concerned about what a Scotty Brooks era means in DC? 

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3 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

 And watching how they're coming together under Billy Donovan has me...I don't know...a little concerned about what a Scotty Brooks era means in DC? 

Yeah, Scott Brooks is having an absolutely horrible month.  I mean, Brooks made the finals in 2012 and then never had a healthy team again.  2013 - Westbrook hurt.  2014 - Ibaka hurt.  2015 - Durant hurt. 

So maybe we just all forgot how awesome OKC is when they are actually healthy?  Plus, Durant and Westbrook are in their absolute prime (both are 27) and playing even better than they were in 2012 or 2014.  

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12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Yeah, Scott Brooks is having an absolutely horrible month.  I mean, Brooks made the finals in 2012 and then never had a healthy team again.  2013 - Westbrook hurt.  2014 - Ibaka hurt.  2015 - Durant hurt. 

So maybe we just all forgot how awesome OKC is when they are actually healthy?  Plus, Durant and Westbrook are in their absolute prime (both are 27) and playing even better than they were in 2012 or 2014.  

 

The fact that injuries kept them out of contention for 3 years, combined with a pretty bad regular season and very legitimate questions about roster construction led to the concerns. This team really can't afford an injury even to a role player, as they only go about 7 1/2 deep.  And prior to figuring out how to involve Andre Roberson offensively in the last week, they were about 7 deep. Teams like the Warriors and Spurs are so much deeper than the Thunder, and then you combine that with the fact that the stars are playing less in the regular season because you don't want to wear them out. You're getting an extra combined 10+ minutes out of KD and Russ in the playoffs, which is a huge deal.

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7 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

 Did Brooks have the man-bunned, mustachioed, mad man? That guy has been huge.

 Adams%20stache%20kid_zps2tdvieyq.jpg

That is awesome. 

5 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Yeah, Scott Brooks is having an absolutely horrible month.  I mean, Brooks made the finals in 2012 and then never had a healthy team again.  2013 - Westbrook hurt.  2014 - Ibaka hurt.  2015 - Durant hurt. 

So maybe we just all forgot how awesome OKC is when they are actually healthy?  Plus, Durant and Westbrook are in their absolute prime (both are 27) and playing even better than they were in 2012 or 2014.  

I think what you mention is the single biggest factor. But Zach Lowe always used to refer to OKC as the "clogged toilet offense" but now I'm seeing ball movement and guys making cuts, and effective use of imperfect offense talents like Roberson, Waiters and Ibaka. Plus creative defensive strategies like putting Ibaka on Curry because he's a better on the ball defender than if he had to chase Curry through screens on a switch. He just seems more willing to try new things and think outside the box than Brooks who became known for things like putting Kendrick Perkins out there every game against a Heat team he had no chance to matchup against. 

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12 minutes ago, sperry said:

You're getting an extra combined 10+ minutes out of KD and Russ in the playoffs, which is a huge deal.

It really does.  The team is noticably less effective whenever even one of them sits.  But when they're both in, the offense is getting really good looks almost every possession.

11 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

 He just seems more willing to try new things and think outside the box than Brooks who became known for things like putting Kendrick Perkins out there every game against a Heat team he had no chance to matchup against. 

Brooks seemed to have watched the 2010 NBA Finals, concluded that the Celtics would have beat the Lakers if Perkins hadn't gotten hurt, and extrapolated that single lesson to all situations. 

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2 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

If the 73-9 Warriors suddenly get eliminated, I (and the 96 Bulls) will laugh so fucking hard.

I dunno. Some of 'em seem more likely to cry 

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