who planned the Riot in Kings Landing?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

12 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

The king was surrounded by KG, also I don't think Joffreys life holds much value to Varys.

KG got hurt during that riot, and one of them died. So, anything was possible. Also, I doubt a KG could have stop a rock or anything targeted to Joffrey's head.

12 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Its true that its dangerous, but Varys spends lots of time in neighborhoods trying to get Tyrion some action. I think its probable that Varys was in disguise as a smallfolk. Also Tyrion wonders if Jacelyn Bywater is Varys' pawn, if so some gold cloaks were in on it, along with Varys' agents.

I agree that Varys could have been behind the riots, but why? What's the purpose? That was my premise: if he was somehow hoping to get Tyrek Lannister, the chances of him getting her were too low. The kid could have died, and many people there too. If Joffrey died, then Tommen was King, and Tommen was more docile. I'm sure he would have been 100% controlled by Tywin, which Varys didn't want.

[SeanF]

3 hours ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

KG got hurt during that riot, and one of them died. So, anything was possible. Also, I doubt a KG could have stop a rock or anything targeted to Joffrey's head.

I agree that Varys could have been behind the riots, but why? What's the purpose? That was my premise: if he was somehow hoping to get Tyrek Lannister, the chances of him getting her were too low. The kid could have died, and many people there too. If Joffrey died, then Tommen was King, and Tommen was more docile. I'm sure he would have been 100% controlled by Tywin, which Varys didn't want.

I agree that the riots were likely spontaneous.  If the riot had been planned, it would probably have been combined with an attempted coup.

The Lannisters are likely unpopular as a result of the Sack, 15 years previously.  On top of that, people are going hungry, while seeing members of the Court stuffing their faces.  Tyrion's wildlings and sellswords are making themselves unpopular throughout the city.  And Joffrey, being the idiot that he is, throws sparks onto the bonfire.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I would agree that the riot was not instigated by any of the usual players, but for the author directing our suspicion toward Varys, and for the mystery surrounding Tyrek's disappearance. So, I suspect Varys Orchestrated the Kidnapping of Tyrek to Use Him against House Lannister when the Time Was Right for Aegon to Assert His Claim.

[Lion of the West]

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Tyrion has not been recruited by Varys.

Forgive me I jumped ahead. But I dare say that Team Targaryen are working on him.

[Hugorfonics]

5 hours ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

KG got hurt during that riot, and one of them died. So, anything was possible. Also, I doubt a KG could have stop a rock or anything targeted to Joffrey's head.

I agree that Varys could have been behind the riots, but why? What's the purpose? That was my premise: if he was somehow hoping to get Tyrek Lannister, the chances of him getting her were too low. The kid could have died, and many people there too. If Joffrey died, then Tommen was King, and Tommen was more docile. I'm sure he would have been 100% controlled by Tywin, which Varys didn't want.

I have no idea. Who knows why eunuchs do things?

Your question makes sense, but what's even more suspect is why Vsrys didn't warn the small council, and even more suspect, where is Tyrek? Kids don't dissaper, not Gendry or Rickon or anybody. If Tyreks dissaperance wasn't game of thrones related, thered be clues or something.

I agree Varys wanted Joffrey to live as opposed to die, but I don't think he cared that much, Tywins death was always in Varys' hands anyway.

14 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Forgive me I jumped ahead. But I dare say that Team Targaryen are working on him.

Nothing to forgive! Team Targaryen? Does that exist? Theirs a dragon, and a mummers dragon. Furthermore, Tyrion doesn't seem to have much loyalty left to anyone

[dariopatke]

But if mob was angry at Lannisters why did they rebel only at that moment?

I meanthey did go to Red Keep that one time but it was minor . One would expect thousands of people join to Antler Men.

Also when One True King attacked, why didn't they riot and open gates? Dont tell me 150k men capable for fighting couldn't take couple of thousand watchmen and open gates. In fact they just relaised how powerful they are when you see damage that has been made (Tyrek, Santagar, Greenfield, Lolys, almost Sansa,. ..) 

The fact that they stayed peaceful arter riot shows us it was at organised at least to some level.

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

36 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

But if mob was angry at Lannisters why did they rebel only at that moment?

I meanthey did go to Red Keep that one time but it was minor . One would expect thousands of people join to Antler Men.

Also when One True King attacked, why didn't they riot and open gates? Dont tell me 150k men capable for fighting couldn't take couple of thousand watchmen and open gates. In fact they just relaised how powerful they are when you see damage that has been made (Tyrek, Santagar, Greenfield, Lolys, almost Sansa,. ..) 

The fact that they stayed peaceful arter riot shows us it was at organised at least to some level.

Nobody opened the gates for Stannis for at least two reasons. The first, people were going to; they were found out, and they had antlers nailed to their heads and were being thrown over the walls to a horrible death. Not very many people want to end that way. The second, Stannis Baratheon is, to the people of King's Landing, a heretic, a heathen and a traitor who worships a false god. I don't think it's too hard to figure why the smallfolk, all of whom worship the Seven, don't want Stannis to come into town and burn the Great Sept of Baelor. If it was Renly at the gates, perhaps things would've been different... but, fortunately, it was not.

I really don't think that it was some plot. Riots happen, and one happened here. Why was Varys not there, you ask? Would he truly have been welcome? Is he some friend to Myrcella, that he needs to be there for the farewell? He has things to do, and he is relatively despised by the people he works for. They don't want him there, he doesn't want to be there, he doesn't need to be there. Why should he be there?

[dariopatke]

27 minutes ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Nobody opened the gates for Stannis for at least two reasons. The first, people were going to; they were found out, and they had antlers nailed to their heads and were being thrown over the walls to a horrible death. Not very many people want to end that way. The second, Stannis Baratheon is, to the people of King's Landing, a heretic, a heathen and a traitor who worships a false god. I don't think it's too hard to figure why the smallfolk, all of whom worship the Seven, don't want Stannis to come into town and burn the Great Sept of Baelor. If it was Renly at the gates, perhaps things would've been different... but, fortunately, it was not.

I really don't think that it was some plot. Riots happen, and one happened here. Why was Varys not there, you ask? Would he truly have been welcome? Is he some friend to Myrcella, that he needs to be there for the farewell? He has things to do, and he is relatively despised by the people he works for. They don't want him there, he doesn't want to be there, he doesn't need to be there. Why should he be there?

But why did they cheer name of Stannis? Antler men were minor, in 150k men ran Gold Cloaks wouldnt stand a chance. They could havenpulled something like storming of Dragon pit.

Why should Santagar and Lolys be there? I really doubt Myrcella was good friend of Lolys.

My guess is that people were pissed but someone had to be catalyst. Who is that? I dont know, probably Varys or LF, but maybe someone third, maybe someone loyal to Stannis or Renly who wanted to destroy KL from inside (unnamed character).

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

13 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

See this is what I like about posting topics that have bugged me for years... I never even considered Tyrek Lannister as big of importance as he is. 

I can't believe that the Riot happened at random. Too many important people were killed.  

What one has to do with another? Great many more important people died in the Great Spring Sickness, including one king, two princes and one High Septon. Something shit happens and important people die. They're not immune to fate.

[Ser Leftwich]

14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Varys didn't warn them. Varys knows everything and he wasn't there to see Myrcella off.

Wait, are you alluding that Yoren worked for Petyr? Interesting....

Tyrion would have known the general temper of the city. As stated above, it is one thing to have instigators in the crowd, it is another for Joff to lose his temper at peasants.

I am not implying that Yoren worked for Petyr. I am not even sure why anyone would think that.

The riot, like the change meeting at the Inn are just conveniences of the story. The riot makes a dramatic situation for Sandor-Sansa relationship to develop and the Tyrion-Joff antagonism to develop.

Not everything is a conspiracy developed by LF or Varys.

[House Beaudreau]

10 hours ago, apovsic said:

Yes, this garlic in breath line is really telling ... Why not onion in breath? 

Why would GRRM purposely make a starving mob have garlic breath? its not a mistake its intentional. Meaning the dudes that took Sansa had been eating which means they probably were part of the "random" mob in the Riot. Meaning they intended on grabbing sansa before the riot started. If they just wanted to rape a highborn girl why not just get in line on the Lollys train. 

[Ser Leftwich]

King Bread was the 'instigator' of the riot.

[House Beaudreau]

1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

What one has to do with another? Great many more important people died in the Great Spring Sickness, including one king, two princes and one High Septon. Something shit happens and important people die. They're not immune to fate.

Murder is different than Sickness. And also a lot of people blamed Bloodraven for those spring sickness deaths.

[Hugorfonics]

2 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

I really don't think that it was some plot. Riots happen, and one happened here. Why was Varys not there, you ask? Would he truly have been welcome? Is he some friend to Myrcella, that he needs to be there for the farewell? He has things to do, and he is relatively despised by the people he works for. They don't want him there, he doesn't want to be there, he doesn't need to be there. Why should he be there?

Varys would be welcome, he's a Lord of the Small Council saying farewell to a Princess who'll marry a Prince. He should have been there.

 

1 hour ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Tyrion would have known the general temper of the city. As stated above, it is one thing to have instigators in the crowd, it is another for Joff to lose his temper at peasants.

I am not implying that Yoren worked for Petyr. I am not even sure why anyone would think that.

The riot, like the change meeting at the Inn are just conveniences of the story. The riot makes a dramatic situation for Sandor-Sansa relationship to develop and the Tyrion-Joff antagonism to develop.

Not everything is a conspiracy developed by LF or Varys.

Without a doubt, Joffrey and Cersei handled the situation beautiffuly, perhaps it wasnt necessary, perhaps Varys knew the character of those two and predicted the future.

Word, I was joking. Not that I rule Yoren being a puppet out (he was Ned's and Varys), just Petyr couldn't really contact him, and how would he know Cats going to the inn anyway.

The riot wasn't by chance, man. Too much focus on Tyrek since ACOK.

Not everything. Some are by Tywin and Bran lol

34 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

King Bread was the 'instigator' of the riot.

Word. But Varys knew that the people are starving

[Dorian Martell]

15 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

If the Riot was truly Random and simply just the smallfolks rebelling because they were hungry, then why did the men trying to rape and hurt sansa have garlic on their breath. 

YES i know if sooooo subtle and maybe reaching but GRRM doesn't just do things for no reason. 

 

Really, garlic breath? you lock in on that and ignore the rest of the chapter? Read JCRB's reply. It sums it up nicely 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Varys stayed away because he knew there would be a riot? Then why not inform the Council? Like his job dictates. 

Varys has ears all over the capital. He is far more in touch with the small folk than anyone in the red keep. Also, why would he inform the council when he is working to destabilize the Lannister king? He is smart enough to save his own skin. He states that no one has any love for spiders. who would have defended him in a riot? Even the King;s betrothed was almost left behind. 

 

12 hours ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

The riot started after Joffrey acted like an ass. Before that, King's Landing was already suffering from his bad decisions, so it was just a matter of time.

-A woman stepped in front of Joffrey's horse with her dead baby. Joffrey didn't look like he was going to stop until Sansa adviced him to give her money. Joffrey threw the money at her, but a few men fought for it.

-Cersei told Joffrey to carry on. The woman got madder at her and started to call her "Whore!" and "Brotherfucker", kinda implying that people was rather mad at the Lannisters (not at Joffrey. IICR, someone told Tyrion the people knew he was a kid, and all the bad decisions were caused by the Council).

-Someone threw shit at Joffrey. He offered 100 Golden Dragons for the person's head. He ordered the Hound to bring the men, who was allegedly on the roofs.

- Joffrey then ordered him to actually open his way with his sword. People freaked out and started to yell "Monsters" and "Bastard" at Joffrey. And then, they started to ask for food, justice, Stannis, Robb, more insults, yadayadayada. The people with Joffrey, and Joffrey himself, had to escape through the mob, who killed at least three people, IICR.

There were too many factors for such as specific goal. Even if Varys planned the whole thing, there is no way he could have made sure that he would get Tyrek, dead or alive. He could have gotten killed even the King himself there.

 

 

Well said as usual 

[House Beaudreau]

Your right, things in these books just randomly happen. we probably shouldn't look to close at any of it. 

[Hugorfonics]

6 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

 Varys has ears all over the capital. He is far more in touch with the small folk than anyone in the red keep. 

Word. So we agree Varys knew of agitation among the smallfolk that day.

 

9 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

 Also, why would he inform the council when he is working to destabilize the Lannister king? 

How did the riot destabilize the Lannister king?

The only outcome was random deaths, and Tyreks abduction. Also I guess Fleas bottom burned.

 

12 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

He is smart enough to save his own skin. He states that no one has any love for spiders. who would have defended him in a riot? Even the King;s betrothed was almost left behind. 

Varys isn't a coward, he used to steal in Essos and spends plenty of time among KL small folk in the books.

Probably the riot got out of hand, I just can't belive it was random.

Jaime summs it up nicely.

"I led a search myself, at Lord Tywin's command," offered Addam Marbrand as he boned his fish, "but I found no more than Bywater had before me. The boy was last seen ahorse, when the press of the mob broke the line of gold cloaks. Afterward . . . well, his palfrey was found, but not the rider. Most like they pulled him down and slew him. But if that's so, where is his body? The mob let the other corpses lie, why not his?"

 

"He would be of more value alive," suggested Strongboar. "Any Lannister would bring a hefty ransom."

 

"No doubt," Marbrand agreed, "yet no ransom demand was ever made. The boy is simply gone."

 

"The boy is dead." Jaime had drunk three cups of wine, and his golden hand seemed to be growing heavier and clumsier by the moment. A hook would serve me just as well. "If they realized whom they'd killed, no doubt they threw him in the river for fear of my father's wrath. They know the taste of that in King's Landing. Lord Tywin always paid his debts."

 

"Always," Strongboar agreed, and that was the end of that.

 

Yet afterward, alone in the tower room he had been offered for the night, Jaime found himself wondering. Tyrek had served King Robert as a squire, side by side with Lancel. Knowledge could be more valuable than gold, more deadly than a dagger. It was Varys he thought of then, smiling and smelling of lavender. The eunuch had agents and informers all over the city. It would have been a simple matter for him to arrange to have Tyrek snatched during the confusion . . . provided he knew beforehand that the mob was like to riot. And Varys knew all, or so he would have us believe. Yet he gave Cersei no warning of that riot. Nor did he ride down to the ships to see Myrcella off.

[Gamel]

There is a nice essay on the matter by  Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire . https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2016/02/05/heirs-in-the-shadows-the-young-lion/
Basically, the theory is that the royal convoy was conveniently halted at the right place (upright slope, in an angled street to deny the guards global visibility) and then agitators did what they had to do to taunt the king. Tyrek was abducted by Varys and his agents who plans to use his claim on Casterly Rock and the Westerlands when the mainline Lannisters are all dead. Aegon would make him Warden of the West.

The only flaw in the theory imo is why should Tyrek agree with the plan? You abduct someone for years and suddenly he'll comply willingly?
And iirc Tyrion also has plans to seize Casterly Rock for himself, and a lot of debts to pay back to the Second Sons.

[Dorian Martell]

20 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Word. So we agree Varys knew of agitation among the smallfolk that day.

Of course. He is the master of whispers and is extremely good at his Job. He knows what is up 

20 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

How did the riot destabilize the Lannister king?

The only outcome was random deaths, and Tyreks abduction. Also I guess Fleas bottom burned

You are thinking too narrowly. The actions of Varys are to destabilize the Lannister rule, not specifically the riot. That was a byproduct of the war, Joffs rule and Cersei's incompetent regency.  Arya hears the convo between varys and Illyrio about how Varys is working to pit the wolves and Lions against each other, but events are moving out of his control as Ned will learn the truth about Bob's bastards and Cat has taken the imp prisoner. Varys needs to stall the war so Drogo can move across the narrow sea. 
So yes, flea bottom burned, Tyrek is missing/dead but the small folk now hat the king even more. 

 

32 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Varys isn't a coward, he used to steal in Essos and spends plenty of time among KL small folk in the books.

Probably the riot got out of hand, I just can't belive it was random.

Jaime summs it up nicely.

You are right, he is not a coward. But his spider persona is one of silks and perfumes and not a fighter. He never carries weapons in his spider persona so he would have no way to defend himself if the crows turned ugly. Everyone would protect the king and the Lannisters. the only reason why Sansa was rescued was her use as a bargaining chip against Robb, so they could keep Jaime alive. 

 

[Nevets]

The population of KL is short of food, and is seething mad, especially at the residents of the Red Keep.  Myrcella's departure is probably the first time a large group from the Red Keep has been outside of it in weeks, or even months.  It doesn't take a genius to realize that the possibility for a riot is there.

However, riots are incredibly dangerous and unpredictable, so I don't think Varys (or anyone else) deliberately planned it.  Way too easy for things to get way out of control.  I think Tyrek is alive, but that he, or someone else, merely took advantage of the opportunity presented by the riot for the disappearance.  Either Tyrek decided, "Wow, this is a perfect opportunity to disappear."  Or someone (maybe Varys) said "If there is a riot, go to X and someone will meet you there to take you from KL."  Or he could have been kidnapped.  

I'm skeptical of the whole idea of using him to gain control of CR, though.  At the time, he was way too far down the line of succession.  I do think he will make an appearance, though.  He's been mentioned too much to simply be dead.