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(theory) Catspaw mystery solved (spoilers everything)


The Grey Dayne

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[Spoilers for All books, Bloodraven, Bran, Hodor, Skinchaning]

‘Tyrion shivered. Now there was a nasty suspicion. Perhaps the direwolf and the lion were not the only beasts in the woods, and if that was true, someone was using him as a catspaw. Tyrion Lannister hated being used.’

This essay is concerned with the resolution of another long standing mystery: why the Catspaw attempted to murder Bran,guided by an evaluation of a near identical scene involving the attempted murderer Alyn Cockshaw in The Mystery Knight. I shall begin by comparing the two scenes, followed by a discussion in which I implicate the character responsible for attempted assassination, proving that the most dangerous creature in the woods isn’t the lion or the direwolf but the weirwood.

The events surrounding the Catspaw murder are as follows: the library is set ablaze, the Catspaw appears in quick succession armed with the Valyrian steel dagger, Catelyn stuggles with him, summer quickly intervenes and in the subsequent investigation the stables are muted as his hiding place and the site of a stash of silver coins. Here’s the full encounter which I shall be analysing in it’s entirety:

‘When she turned away from the window, the man was in the room with her.

“You weren’t s’posed to be here,” he muttered sourly. “No one was s’posed to be here.”

Catelyn looked at the knife, then at Bran. “No,” she said. The word stuck in her throat, the merest whisper.

He must have heard her. “It’s a mercy,” he said. “He’s dead already.”

He was a small, dirty man in filthy brown clothing, and he stank of horses. Catelyn knew all the men who worked in their stables, and he was none of them. He was gaunt, with limp blond hair and pale eyes deep-sunk in a bony face, and there was a dagger in his hand.

“No,” Catelyn said, louder now as she found her voice again. “No, you can’t.” She spun back toward the window to scream for help, but the man moved faster than she would have believed. One hand clamped down over her mouth and yanked back her head, the other brought the dagger up to her windpipe. The stench of him was overwhelming.

She reached up with both hands and grabbed the blade with all her strength, pulling it away from her throat. She heard him cursing into her ear. Her fingers were slippery with blood, but she would not let go of the dagger. The hand over her mouth clenched more tightly, shutting off her air. Catelyn twisted her head to the side and managed to get a piece of his flesh between her teeth. She bit down hard into his palm. The man grunted in pain. She ground her teeth together and tore at him, and all of a sudden he let go. The taste of his blood filled her mouth. She sucked in air and screamed, and he grabbed her hair and pulled her away from him, and she stumbled and went down, and then he was standing over her, breathing hard, shaking. The dagger was still clutched tightly in his right hand, slick with blood. “You weren’t s’posed to be here,” he repeated stupidly.

Catelyn saw the shadow slip through the open door behind him. There was a low rumble, less than a snarl, the merest whisper of a threat, but he must have heard something, because he started to turn just as the wolf made its leap. They went down together, half sprawled over Catelyn where she’d fallen. The wolf had him under the jaw. The man’s shriek lasted less than a second before the beast wrenched back its head, taking out half his throat.

His blood felt like warm rain as it sprayed across her face.

The wolf was looking at her. Its jaws were red and wet and its eyes glowed golden in the dark room. It was Bran’s wolf, she realized. Of course it was. “Thank you,” Catelyn whispered, her voice faint and tiny. She lifted her hand, trembling. The wolf padded closer, sniffed at her fingers, then licked at the blood with a wet rough tongue. When it had cleaned all the blood off her hand, it turned away silently and jumped up on Bran’s bed and lay down beside him. Catelyn began to laugh hysterically.’

Consider the relevancy of this scene to one highly which occurs towards the end of The Mystery Knight. Alyn Cockshaw attacks Dunk out of jealousy, luring him to a well on the premise that he has Egg, and attempts to murder him with a dagger:

Cockshaw waved his dagger threateningly. “You can go into the water as you are, or you can go in bleeding. Which will it be?”

Dunk closed his hand around the loose stone. It proved to be less loose than he had hoped. Before he could wrench it free, Ser Alyn lunged. Dunk twisted sideways, so the point of the blade sliced through the meat of his shield arm. And then the stone popped free. Dunk fed it to His Lordship and felt his teeth crack beneath the blow.

“The well, is it?” He hit the lordling in the mouth again, then dropped the stone, seized Cockshaw by the wrist, and twisted until a bone snapped and the dagger clattered to the stones. “After you, m’lord.” Sidestepping, Dunk yanked at the lordling’s arm and planted a kick in the small of his back. Lord Alyn toppled headlong into the well. There was a splash.

“Well done, ser.”

Dunk whirled. Through the rain, all he could make out was a hooded shape and a single pale white eye. It was only when the man came forward that the shadowed face beneath the cowl took on the familiar features of Ser Maynard Plumm, the pale eye no more than the moonstone brooch that pinned his cloak at the shoulder.

Down in the well, Lord Alyn was thrashing and splashing and calling for help. “Murder! Someone help me.”

“He tried to kill me,” Dunk said.

“That would explain all the blood.”

“Blood?” He looked down. His left arm was red from shoulder to elbow, his tunic clinging to his skin. “Oh.”

Dunk did not remember falling, but suddenly he was on the ground, with raindrops running down his face. He could hear Lord Alyn whimpering from the well, but his splashing had grown feebler. “We need to have that arm bound up.” Ser Maynard slipped his own arm under Dunk.

“Up now. I cannot lift you by myself. Use your legs.”

Dunk used his legs. “Lord Alyn. He’s going to drown.”

“He shan’t be missed. Least of all by the Fiddler.”

These scenes bare a number of similarities, firstly they involve the loyal protectors of young children, Dunk is definitely a father figure for Egg. Egg and Bran are two children which Bloodraven takes and especial interest in elevating the former to the Iron throne and the latter to a weirwood throne.  Dunk and Cat both find themselves on the floor during their respective scenes. They also face off against an idiot, Alyn Cockshaw is a tiresome and cocksure having given Dunk, a giant, the opportunity to defend himself against his dagger. He is also the butt of more than few jokes and seems to expect the second Blackfyre rebellion to be success and for him to serve as Lord Commander, to exemplify his stupidity we have this description on realizing Dunk’s survival in the lists:

‘When he caught sight of Dunk, Lord Alyn sputtered, dribbling wine upon on his chest.’

Both fights take place when the rest of the castle is distracted, the burning of the library tower and the arrest of Ser Glendon Flowers (bastard of Fireball) over the missing dragon egg. The would be murders each wield daggers but only inflict flesh wounds, they are then stuck forcefully with a grey object (Summer/stone) and are knocked over and let out a scream and drown, one in his own blood, the other in the waters of the well. There are other notable similarities and character disparities, such as the rain of blood and water, and the names Catspaw and the Cockshaw. The appearance of the characters are opposites of each other, the former is gaunt, filthy and dressed in drab clothing, while the latter is plump, is attended by squires to clean their armour and is dressed in splendid clothing. The concept of money involved in an attempted murder is also repeated with Cockshaw paying Uther Underleaf to murder Dunk during their joust. Whitewalls (the Milkhouse) and Winterfell are also show disparities and similarities, both are grand castles, coloured white and grey respectively, plus the latter’s walls also turn white from the snow. While one is oldest castles and the seat of an ancient house, the other is nascent and inhabited by upstarts who derive their authority from their wealth, something Bloodraven makes mock of:

‘These Butterwells have milk running in their veins, and the Freys are no better. This will be a marriage of cattle thieves and toll collectors, one lot of coin clinkers joining with another.’

This last observation is more tenuous, at the end of one scene Catelyn is left laughing hysterically (Lothston blood again) while in Dunk’s scene the reader is filled with mirth as Dunk and Bloodraven make witty remarks during Cockshaw’s demise.

The most important connection between these two scenes is the presence of Bloodraven, this is more established in the encounter between Dunk and Cockshaw in which Dunk briefly receives an impression of the true form of Ser Maynard Plumm, which is actually Bloodraven using a Glamour in the form of the moonstone broach to spy on the Blackfyre plot. I propose that Bloodraven had a hand in both distractions that lead up to the attempted murders, the stealing of Lord Butterwell’s egg is known to be committed by the troupe of Dwarves, one of which climbs the privy shaft leading up to Butterwell’s chamber at the top of a tower. I propose that in the second instance a giant, Hodor is used to infiltrate the library tower to start the fire (achieved by his skinchanging by Bloodraven, a defining characteristic of Hodor and the subject of my previous essay). The involvement of a co-conspirator in Bran’s attempted murder is undeniable, the Catspaw arrives in too short an order considering the Library is on the other side of the bailey and the rush of people would likely impeded his movement. Further more in my previous essay on Bloodraven stealing Hodor’s body I provide an analysis of the scene with the Sansa’s ‘snow castle’ Winterfell in which Robert Arryn (a skinchanger) imagines his doll is a giant, and uses it to destroy parts of the castle, just as Bloodraven the puppet master uses Hodor to burn the library tower.

One might ask why Bloodraven sought to kill Bran when this seems to be a contradiction to his objective of training Bran. I believe Bloodraven had no intention of killing Bran, instead the attempt on his life is a false flag which results in a variety of outcomes which I will address later in the essay but which should be apparent to readers anyway. Bloodraven could effectively foil the murder by skinchanging Summer which we know to be positioned outside the tower prior to the library fire, which may have provided an open doorway or suitable distraction for it to enter the keep and arrive in the room mere moments after Catelyn screams. Other textual clues include Summer entering as a shadow, a description I also associated with Bloodraven in my previous essay. Also the term Cat’s Paw comes from a fable in which a cat is duped into burning itself, having been tricked by a monkey into retrieving chestnuts from the fire who eats them rather than sharing them, in this instance the betrayal is much greater with Bloodraven ripping out the Catspaw’s throat to fulfil his illusion. Bloodravens disregard for the life of the Catspaw is also indicated by his remark on the death of Cockshaw: “He shan’t be missed. Least of all by the Fiddler.”, with the Catspaw dancing to Bloodraven’s tune. Recall also Petyr Baelish’s ‘reward’ for his catspaw Dontos (a fool), who expects payment of ten thousand dragons but gets a flight of crossbow bolts instead.

There are plenty of theories about Bloodraven skinchanging the direwolves so I wont linger on it but I should point out that Summer licking the blood from Catelyn’s hand recalls two instances of the old blind dog licking Sansa, the dog’s owner is Bryen (as in Brynden Rivers), is old and half blind, and its black coat and the fact it used to stand watches recalls Bloodraven’s tenure in the Night’s Watch, as well as it serving of one of Bloodraven’s ‘thousand eyes’. Another connection to Bloodraven in the guise of Summer is Sansa lamenting that the hound isn’t her direwolf lady, the irony being that the two are more alike than she is aware:

‘Sansa sat bored and restless by the fire, beside the old blind dog. He was too sick and toothless to walk guard with Bryen anymore, and mostly all he did was sleep, but when she patted him he whined and licked her hand, and after that they were fast friends.’

‘Sansa found Bryen’s old blind dog in her little alcove beneath the steps, and lay down next to him. He woke and licked her face. “You sad old hound,” she said, ruffling his fur.’

Note also the idea that the Dog is sick, recalling Bloodraven’s undeath and albinism, also the dog spends most of it’s time sleeping, like a Bloodraven with his Greendreams and skinchanging. Summer licking the blood from her wound also harkens back to Bloodraven offering to bind Dunk’s injury and helping him up from the ground. Bloodraven licking the blood from catelyn’s hand my also signify his understanding of her bloodline which is to say her decent from House Lothston and the connotations that has for Bran’s powers as a Greenseer.

There are other clues that relate the two attempted murders, namely the ‘pale eyes’ of the Catspaw. There are three creepy killers who are repeatedly described as having truly pale eyes, as in devoid of colour, Ser Ilyn, Ramsay and Roose. While they arn’t implicated in the attempted murder, they serve to highlight the deliberate use of the description and the response it is designed to provoke in the reader: suspicion, take for instance tyrion’s description of Jon Connington who is also an embodiment of death, what with his upcoming affliction with Greyscale which is considered a death sentence:

‘They were ice blue, pale, cold. The dwarf misliked pale eyes’

 

A pale eye also features in the well scene and is attributed directly to Bloodraven and his moonstone broach which is described as a pale white eye, colourless just like the eyes of the most infamous of the pale eyed. Bloodraven’s albinism also results in him being described as pale repeatedly in the mystery knight:

‘The grave has claimed them, every one, yet he endures, this pale bird with bloody beak who perches on King Aerys’s shoulder and caws into his ear.’

‘Old fools and young malcontents still make pilgrimages to the Redgrass Field to plant flowers on the spot where Daemon Blackfyre fell. I will not suffer Whitewalls to become another monument to the Black Dragon.” He waved a pale hand. “Now scurry away, roach.”’

‘He was older than Dunk remembered him, with a lined hard face, but his skin was still as pale as bone, and his cheek and neck still bore the ugly winestain birthmark that some people thought looked like a raven.’

In a dance with dragons we receive the following descriptions of Bloodraven:

‘Before them a pale lord in ebon finery sat dreaming in a tangled nest of roots, a woven weirwood throne that embraced his withered limbs as a mother does a child.’

‘The only thing that looked alive in the pale ruin that was his face was his one red eye’

The purpose of these connections is to associate the Catspaw with Bloodraven’s agency. The fact that the Catspaw uses a limited vocabulary and appears gaunt, sickly and unkempt creates the impression of a man deranged. What could have driven the man to attempt the murder? Has Bloodraven been sending him dreams? Certainly the implied motives, the payment of a measly ninety silver stags (less than half a dragon) is insufficient, for one thing the Valyrian steel dagger is far more valuable, which begs the question, if this was a contract killing as many characters are led to believe, why didn’t the Catspaw default and escape with both the silver and the weapon, it would evidently be a lot less risky than assassinating the son of Ned Stark, especially when most of the paymasters muted by characters and readers alike have no agency inside Winterfell and were unlikely to return there for the sake of reprimanding him. In lieu of a credible payment (even if one considers the dagger as payment, which would be difficult to sell as member of the lower classes), we must return to the idea that the Catspaw is compelled by something immaterial, likely being a thrall of Bloodraven.

Addressing his stench and filthiness, it would seem he has indeed hidden himself in the stable for a prolonged period of time, although there are a few other candidate locations such as the broken tower and the crypts. The idea that the Catspaw has been in a dormant state is also indicated by his appearance of being emaciated, the idea of him sleeping in the straw also foreshadows the Wights surrounding Bloodravens hollow hill which are hidden beneath the snow and appear to want to kill bran; it’s difficult to know who or what is in control of these wights but there appears to be a common theme of zombie like creatures (think of the Catspaw’s stupidity, stink and thinness) under a form of psychic control, emerging from below the surface to kill bran.

Having considered most of the textual connections, we must also consider some of the logical inconsistencies, such as the Catspaw suddenly releasing Catelyn and throwing her to the ground, yet hesistating to kill Bran (granted at this point her screams have effectively foiled any assassination though he’d likely get the chop regardless of if he killed bran or not).

I believe I’ve covered most of the aspects of both murder scenes, so I shall turn my attention to the other facets of the murder plot, namely the involvement of Hodor. As I’ve already stated, Bloodraven’s use of a dwarf to cause a distraction leading up to the well scene parralells his skin changing of the giant to start the library fire, it may be that Hodor also planted the silver coins in the stable, he almost certainly helped disguise the presence of the dormant Catspaw within the stables while providing him with at least some nourishment, it may be that the Catspaw has been in a dream like state for weeks, just as Bran becomes emaciated and is fed the honey and water and herb mixture that sustained life.

‘She was holding one of his hands. It looked like a claw. This was not the Bran he remembered. The flesh had all gone from him. His skin stretched tight over bones like sticks. Under the blanket, his legs bent in ways that made Jon sick. His eyes were sunken deep into black pits; open, but they saw nothing. The fall had shrunken him somehow. He looked half a leaf, as if the first strong wind would carry him off to his grave.’

Notice the similarity between the description of Bran’s eyes the deep-sunk pale eyes of the Catspaw, the notion that both have been abed, receiving dreams from Bloodraven, one in a feather bed, the other in a bed of straw (straw beds are the norm in Westeros). On the subject of Hodor’s involvement we receive this answer:

“And how could he go unnoticed?” she said sharply.

Hallis Mollen looked abashed. “Between the horses Lord Eddard took south and them we sent north to the Night’s Watch, the stalls were half-empty. It were no great trick to hide from the stableboys. Could be Hodor saw him, the talk is that boy’s been acting queer, but simple as he is …” Hal shook his head.

“We found where he’d been sleeping,” Robb put in. “He had ninety silver stags in a leather bag buried beneath the straw.”

Here we see Bloodraven’s use of Hodor’s simple minded exterior to operate his plot, without arousing suspicion, his queer behaviour dismissed because of Hodor’s affliction. Nobody within winterfell would have cause to suspect Hodor as being skinchanged by Bloodraven, thus the stables which also make for a suitably flammable distraction can be preserved to enable the discovery of the silver and keep Hodor occupied. Furthermore the burning of the library tower may also have been committed to destroy knowledge which is likely relevant to upcoming events in the story, such as books on the changing of the seasons, rare Valyrian scrolls and likely much more. There are a few other book burnings that take place:

Bolton turned a few more pages with his finger, then closed the book and placed it carefully in the fire. He watched the flames consume it, pale eyes shining with reflected light. The old dry leather went up with a whoosh, and the yellow pages stirred as they burned, as if some ghost were reading them.

The other instance is Cersei’s burning of the tower of the hand, which contains Tyrion’s possessions which would surely include a great number of books. Roose definitely bares an association with Bloodraven through the aforementioned pale eyes, as well as the figurative wearing of another person’s skin, mirroring the age old Bolton custom of turning their foes into cloaks. The passage may also imply that Hodor has stolen some of the books from the library, allowing Bloodraven exclusive access to them (as the spirit of a man believed dead, seeing through the eyes of Hodor), while the arson given the appearance of the books having been lost to the flames.

What does Bloodraven stand to gain from this elaborate ruse? The outcome of the attempted murder that has always been apparent to the reader is it’s political consequences the strife between Stark and Lannister which is achieved through the use of an a unique and identifiable weapon, his utterance of “No one was s’posed to be here.” (which implies his direction by another power), as well as the planting of the silver coins, a ploy performed by a fellow spy master and in many way’s Bloodraven’s adversary, Varys when he hides the House Gardner gold coins in Rugen’s cell, fuelling Cersei’s distrust of the Tyrells. It is difficult to tell if Bloodraven’s moves are towards a goal related to his status as a Greenseer, or part of disrupting the Blackfyre plot by initiating conflict in Westeros (such as his murder of Robert) before their preparations are complete, or if it is part of a plan to displace Bran from winterfell, which is made possible by North going to war, as well as the actions of Theon and Ramsay who are both inspired to perform daring moves that culminate in the sack of Winterfell. Summer’s slaying of the Catspaw also reverse’s Catelyn’s stance on the direwolves and she encourages their bonding with her other children, which likely also plays into Bloodraven’s hands in terms of nurturing their skinchanging as well as allowing him to exert greater influence through his skinchanging of the direwolves.

The involvement of Bloodraven in this plot is congruent to the ideas I put forth in my essay on Hodor being skin changed, that Bloodraven’s machinations are permeate the entirety of Bran’s story. Would our author create a character as rich and interesting as Bloodraven for him to manifest only so late in the story, and for his actions to be uninvolved in the story prior? The Catspaw mystery is certainly of a magnitude appropriate for Bloodraven and GRRM has tried to keep us interested by it throughout the books by feeding us red-herrings such as Tyrion’s suspicion of Joffrey and Mances purse of silver, all the while distraction from the more important details, just as Ser Mandon Moore another catspaw who botches a killing but inflicts a fleshwound is misinterpreted by Tyrion as an agent of Cersei, intensifying their mistrust of one another. In my opinion GRRM’s pattern of exploring false explanations within a character’s POV his way of inviting readers to question the event’s themselves and discover the answers themselves.

Some questions still remain such as how was the silver and Valyrian steel Dagger retrieved, it may be that Hodor played a part in this as well, part of his package of suspicious behaviour.

[last paragraph: spoilers for Watchmen]

The idea of a murder plot designed to mislead and which is thoroughly engineered is reminiscent of Ozymandis (Adrian Veidt) in Watchmen which our author has undoubtedly read. Ozymandias is attempting to avert nuclear Armageddon (the incoming winter as such) though his mean are questionable, he resides at a facility in the Antarctic where observes the world through banks of TV screens like Bloodraven and his thousand eyes and the unseen manipulator throughout the story. Ozymandias arranges a hit on himself in order to avert suspicion away from his own schemes, foiling the attempt and planting a cyanide capsule in the assassin’s mouth, just as Bloodraven in the form of summer tears out the throat of his own agent the Catspaw to mislead others.

Link to my essay on Bloodraven skinchanging Hodor:

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  • 1 month later...

Omg i kid you not I've been working on a long essay for months where I came to the exact same conclusion as you. I decided to not watch season 6 until after the book comes out so I've been avoiding the forum lately not wanting to accidentally hear a spoiler, otherwise I'd have posted it months ago. 

 

Here's the thing though. While reaching the same conclusion as you, I followed an entirely different path than you did to get there. Rather than analysing themes as you did i believe I've found a trail in book 1 that can prove it, and answer many of the unanswered questions surrounding Brans fall, and the subsequent failed attempt on his life. I'm not ready to post yet but I'd love to bounce my ideas off of you and your input. I'm still avoiding the general forum for the time being but if you're interested in hearing my evidence please send me a private message and I'll lay it out for u. I believe we're both 90 percent right with two different sets of evidence. I truly believe that BR was behind it, and i want to prove it. Can't post until every angle is covered bc we're all nerds for the books and any flaws will get noticed immediately lol

Great job! 

Shoot me a message 

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  • 1 month later...

Well done! I've been searching for a better explanation of the Winterfell catspaw, and this could fill in some of the gaps I've been pondering.

The only part that I don't see fully fleshed out here is the motive. You say that Bloodraven wants to ignite strife between the Starks and Lannisters. Does he want this fight to happen because he thinks it will lead to a Targaryen restoration? Maybe we're not supposed to fully understand his motives until the last two books clarify his connection to current events in Westeros.

In looking at some Theon details, I have come to see daggers as closely associated with deserters, who are often described as ragged. (And the first one the reader encounters was named Gared.) So I'm wondering whether the distinctive dagger might have been carried by a member of Robert's traveling group who could be described as a turncloak or a deserter or a traitor of some kind. Just trying to follow the breadcrumbs GRRM has scattered along the trail.

The idea of Bloodraven skinchanging Hodor might help to explain a catspaw theory I couldn't quite work out completely - I was comparing Olenna's role in the death of Joffrey to (potentially) Old Nan's role in the attack on Bran. Old Nan's advanced age and presence at Winterfell might explain how Bloodraven was watching at the birth of Bran Stark and for generations before his birth - maybe Bloodraven has been looking out through her eyes from time to time as well as Hodor's. I was largely speculating when it came her motive, so having Bloodraven pulling strings behind the scenes could help to explain that gap.

I connected the book destruction by Roose and before the attack on Bran and I would add Joffrey's destruction of Tyrion's gift, The Lives of Four Kings, at his wedding feast. After Joffrey destroys it, he tells Tyrion he owes him a new gift and Tyrion suggests a dagger with a dragonbone handle, trying to make Joffrey react in a way that would indicate his role in the attack on Bran Stark. My reading of that scene is that Joffrey doesn't understand what Tyrion is getting at - he wants a dagger that would match Widow's Wail, which has rubies in the hilt.

If I'm right about a parallel between the poisoning of Joffrey and the attempt on Bran, the similar details might support the connection: the book destruction and the conversation between Joffrey and Tyrion alluding to the dagger used by the Winterfell catspaw. My Old Nan theory also includes ravens (as the familiars of crones), stableboys, stolen dragon eggs - the connections to your Bloodraven idea seem quite compatible. 

I was thinking of Littlefinger as the man behind the catspaw and Old Nan, however, and possibly a Faceless Man angle - the catspaw says, "No one was supposed to be here." That could be a clue that the catspaw was not supposed to commit the stabbing, but was supposed to deliver the dagger to No One (= a faceless man). If Bloodraven isn't skinchanging Old Nan, maybe some Faceless Man is.

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