NHL 2016 - The Kids Are Alright

[A Horse Named Stranger]

5 minutes ago, Swordfish said:

 

 

hard to say really what they will do.  They could protect him via trade prior to the expansion draft with Vegas as well.  happened a bunch of times last time if I remember correctly.

It would be an interesting job taking over an expansion team as GM.

 

The issue with Webber is his age and the length of that contract.  He's still a great player, but for how long?  he's certainly already past his prime.

Will be interesting to see if the Lucic rumors are true.

 

 

Yes, but I still give him more upside than Subban. Subban is an improved Letang (less injury prone). So basically a highscoring defenseman, who can be a liability defensively. Webber is 30 now? His contrat length is a downside, but I really think he has 5 or 6 good years left. And maybe the Habs will trade him away in few years on deadline, as a final piece for team trying for a Cup run. So the age concern would still be a minor factor, if I was GM in Montreal. 

[Swordfish]

9 minutes ago, Notone said:

Yes, but I still give him more upside than Subban. Subban is an improved Letang (less injury prone). So basically a highscoring defenseman, who can be a liability defensively. Webber is 30 now? His contrat length is a downside, but I really think he has 5 or 6 good years left. And maybe the Habs will trade him away in few years on deadline, as a final piece for team trying for a Cup run. So the age concern would still be a minor factor, if I was GM in Montreal. 

It's a huge factor because i'm pretty sure it's one of those front loaded,  pre CBA contracts.  So if he retires early, the cap hit is absurdly large, otherwise you're stuck paying him until he's like a hundred years old.. That's going to affect his value, even for teams looking for a rental.  because of the length of that deal, you can't really rent him, you gotta buy him.  And he isn't cheap to own.

Subban is still improving, so i don't know what you mean about upside.  Webber, while still great, is clearly past his prime, IMO.  How fast he slides is anybodies guess, but I'd take subban in that deal 150 times out of a hundred.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I don't think Subban is going to stop being a defensensive liability. So I think we disagree about how much he will improve, he is already 27 and not 22. 

[l2 0 5 5]

Weber past his prime? The dude had 20 goals last year and is ferocious as all hell. How is that clearly past his prime?

[Jabronius Maximus]

Age is a massive factor. Montreal just acquired years 31-40 of Weber, and Nashville gets 27-33 from Subban. I think Nashville gets the upgrade here. Montreal's not trading for the 'should have won multiple Norris' history of Weber, they get him going forward. 

 

Edit: the underlying numbers show a noticeable difference between these two. TL;DR - Subban has the puck more and generates offense (shots) at a much higher rate compared to Weber.And Subban has better shot suppression. 

[Mark Antony]

I think he could have the same longevity as Chara. I see him playing at a top 10/20 Dman in the league level for 5-6 more seasons but I guess we will see what happens. Either way trading a #1 Dman for a #1 Dman isn't as lopsided as I've seen people spouting. 

In related news just when I was thinking that MTL would be a team I would root for heavily now they go and sign Radulov ugh

[Jabronius Maximus]

Not surprised by this, but Lucic signs for 7yrs/$42m here. I thought we were done with this old boys club, Chia. That'll be a terrible contract in 3-4 years. 

[Mark Antony]

Ladds NYI contract seems awful as well. Okposo to Buffalo, Ericsson to Vancouver, Backes to Boston, and Eric Staal to Minnesotta are some other confirmed.

[Nictarion]

Nielsen to Wings and Campbell back to Hawks too.

Lighting, Devils, and Preds have to be biggest winners so far. 

[Swordfish]

16 hours ago, l2 0 5 5 said:

Weber past his prime? The dude had 20 goals last year and is ferocious as all hell. How is that clearly past his prime?

 

I also clearly said he's still a hell of a player, so I'm not really sure what you are so upset about.  Age is a real thing, and it affects professional athletes.  i'm not sure why this is controversial to you.  'Past your prime' is not the same thing as ;washed up.'

 

14 hours ago, Jabronius Maximus said:

Age is a massive factor. Montreal just acquired years 31-40 of Weber, and Nashville gets 27-33 from Subban. I think Nashville gets the upgrade here. Montreal's not trading for the 'should have won multiple Norris' history of Weber, they get him going forward. 

 

Edit: the underlying numbers show a noticeable difference between these two. TL;DR - Subban has the puck more and generates offense (shots) at a much higher rate compared to Weber.And Subban has better shot suppression. 

yes.  This.

 

 

1 hour ago, Jabronius Maximus said:

Not surprised by this, but Lucic signs for 7yrs/$42m here. I thought we were done with this old boys club, Chia. That'll be a terrible contract in 3-4 years. 

That is insane.  Chiarelli is a moron.  Is there any position in hockey where a players skills decline faster than power forward?  They are great for a couple years, and then their skills drop off a cliff.

 

 

[Swordfish]

Lovejoy should fire his agent immediately.  That contract is a robbery.

[Jabronius Maximus]

1 hour ago, Nictarion said:

Nielsen to Wings and Campbell back to Hawks too.

Lighting, Devils, and Preds have to be biggest winners so far. 

Seriously. Yzerman is a god damn wizard. That contract for Hedman is unbelievably good at 7.8m/8 years. And he keeps Stamkos at 8.5m per year. This is how you build a long term cup contender. 

[Jabronius Maximus]

8 minutes ago, Swordfish said:

 

That is insane.  Chiarelli is a moron.  Is there any position in hockey where a players skills decline faster than power forward?  They are great for a couple years, and then their skills drop off a cliff.

Worst is hearing these radio guys defend these dealings - 'oilers lose the hall trade, but might end up being better'. That and the classic 'you have to overpay free agents to land them'. 

You just traded one of the league's best contracts and made a short sighted signing. I hope we improve, but this week didn't help our chances to do so. 

[MerenthaClone]

1 hour ago, Nictarion said:

Lighting, Devils, and Preds have to be biggest winners so far. 

Agreed, which is terrifying.  That team was already so looking amazing (and had the youth/depth to keep it that way for awhile) that having them get even better is going to be really fun to watch.  Its a shame their viewership can't be too great because they're one of the more fun teams to watch, imo, and I want to see where they go this year.  

[l2 0 5 5]

Not upset, sailfish, just trying to understand your verbiage.

Okposo to the Sabres. Could be a pretty decent young squad in the seasons to come.

[Joe Pesci]

6 hours ago, Jabronius Maximus said:

Worst is hearing these radio guys defend these dealings - 'oilers lose the hall trade, but might end up being better'. That and the classic 'you have to overpay free agents to land them'. 

You just traded one of the league's best contracts and made a short sighted signing. I hope we improve, but this week didn't help our chances to do so. 

I would've sworn that Gretzky was coming back to Edmonton with the way the guys on the nhl network were talking about the Lucic signing today. All I could do was shake my head...

6 hours ago, Swordfish said:

Lovejoy should fire his agent immediately.  That contract is a robbery.

Eh, he more than doubled his salary from last year. For a 32 year old that's really only an average d-man at best, I think he did alright. I read somewhere last week that he would net around $3 million a season on the market, which is pretty close to what he got. He does seem like the kind of guy who would take less to go to a comfortable situation, which he will have with so many familiar faces in NJ. 

Plus, Beau Bennett will need a pal to drive him around when he gets injured next week...

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I agree with Lovejoy making not exactly being bargain, but rather being signed to a reasonable contract. I must say however, that I would be laughing hard, if Bennett managed to play a full season next year and finish with 20 goals. Extremely unlikely event, but I would still find it entertaining.

[l2 0 5 5]

Hats off to Yzerman for getting Stamkos and Hedman tied up.  If he can get Kucherov and Killorn they'll be strapped for years to come.

[Ser Reptitious]

Long-suffering (aren't we all?) Oilers fan here.

 

I actually really like the moves that Chiarelli has made so far. Of course it's a gamble and only the future will tell whether his instincts were right. But that is true for any trade. 

 

The bottom line is that the Oilers were absolutely the worst of the worst for the past decade, despite having a pretty decent line-up on paper the past few years. Yes, their defence (and before this past year their goaltending) was very suspect on paper, but they were supposed to be at least exciting to watch, winning or losing games 5-4 or 6-5. 

 

Instead, they often failed to score more than two goals! Yet now, tons of Oilers fans are howling that on paper this trade looks absolutely atrocious. And yes, on paper they are right. But smart GMs look past paper and consider intangibles such as team chemistry, current needs, future development, and even psychology. 

 

Let's start with psychology, something that is far too often overlooked in sports. Players are only human after all. Hall, Eberle, and Nuge have all gotten far too used to losing over the past few years. As a result, despite their paper talent, the Oilers are very soft to play against. Get a lead of 2+ goals against them and more likely than not they will give up, especially if you tighten up defensively. If the Oilers are to become a contender, that mindset needs to change. Realistically the only way that will happen is by getting rid of the current "leaders" and bring in new ones. Trading Hall and bringing in a proven winner in Lucic is a good start. Eberle and Nuge will also likely have to go, though. 

 

Additionally (and this also goes towards team chemistry), Hall was supposed to be the new face of the franchise when he was drafted. Do we really think that he will have no problem abdicating that role to McDavid? Even if he tries his best to be a good sportsman about it, it's inevitable that this will bug him internally. It's the same as a first-born being suddenly subplanted by a younger sibling that now everyone dotes upon. It's going to sting on some level. 

 

So for the good of everyone, Hall had to go. So what do we trade him for? Another forward doesn't make sense, really. Goaltending we're also okay at (more or less) for the moment. Defence? Yup! Especially a right-handed defenseman is a well-known need for the Oilers. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of good right-handed defensemen available at the moment. And since everyone in the league was well aware of the Oilers needs and their desperate need to move up in the standings this year (new arena and alll), the Oilers were always bound to end up overpaying for whatever trade they ultimately made.

 

But is Larsson really such a bad return? Again, only time will tell, but he certainly was solid this past year, he seems calm under pressure, is big, and is still quite young. I can't help but think back to the time when St. Louis traded Brendan Shanahan straight up for Chris Pronger. At the time a lot of people were just as shell-shocked, and just like now the argument was that while Pronger had a lot of potential, St. Louis at the very least should have also gotten a draft pick or two in addition. St. Louis fans hated the trade so much that they relentlessly booed Pronger every time he touched the puck in home games (I think, and certainly hope, that Oilers fans will be classier than that!). But how many people nowadays would still say that this was a lopsided trade in favour of Hardford? Probably not many, and any who do would probably be laughed at. 

 

 

[Jabronius Maximus]

A fellow oiler fan! Never thought I'd see the day.

Well I remember fans even jeering Pronger early in the season when he came here (edmonton) lol. 

I see your points, and they are valid. It's definitely a gamble. I'm just not a fan of reading your 2nd best player, who's absolutely a sure thing, for a question mark. Ill happily eat my words if it turns out great, but I'm not optimistic. 

Biggest thing for this team - health. We may improve this year, but if we're healthy, that'll be a bigger reason for success than the recent moves. A full season of Mcdavid and Klefbom will do wonders for our record.