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Football - Aftermath of the Euros


baxus

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The mirror are reporting that Chambers is going to be loaned out to Watford. If he gets first team football, then I've got no complaints. Though that leaves us short defensively. 

Gibbs will *probably* leave us this window too - don't Liverpool want a left back? 

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15 minutes ago, No Turkey No Party said:

The mirror are reporting that Chambers is going to be loaned out to Watford. If he gets first team football, then I've got no complaints. Though that leaves us short defensively. 

Gibbs will *probably* leave us this window too - don't Liverpool want a left back? 

Can't imagine Chambers moving unless we bring in a CB. No way we're going into this season short at CB again after what happened early 2014.

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2 hours ago, Mexal said:

Can't imagine Chambers moving unless we bring in a CB. No way we're going into this season short at CB again after what happened early 2014.

Yeah, we can't go in with only three CBs. Monreal can play there in an emergency but I don't know why you'd start the season deliberately short.

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34 minutes ago, Arch-MaesterPhilip said:

Rumor has that the Concafaf and Conmebol might merge the Gold Cup and Copa America. Thoughts?

Nice idea on the field, but fraught with difficulties off it. It is a blatant money grab for a start. It would solve the invitation problem for the Copa America, but creates a bunch of new ones for qualification. I'm skeptical that it will happen in the near future given the FIFA scandal, but it seems to be calming down and reverting to its previous state under Infantino.

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8 hours ago, Arch-MaesterPhilip said:

Rumor has that the Concafaf and Conmebol might merge the Gold Cup and Copa America. Thoughts?

To me it sounds great.

There's only 10 teams in CONMEBOL which is definitely not enough for a proper tournament, even if 3 of those teams have won World Cups in the past.

On the other hand, CONCACAF lacks quality teams other than Mexico and USA so they'll benefit from stronger opposition just like Australia did after "moving" to Asia.

That brings another question - why not merge CONMEBOL and CONCACAF into a single federation? It would make a bit of a mess at first but eventually the cream would rise to the top and every team would be better for it in the long run. On the other hand, if that happened USA could run into some problems qualifying for the World Cup which could cause FIFA to lose some money so I'm fairly confident that we won't see that yet.

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I don't know that the US would be excluded from the World Cup for a long time if they combined the two federations. Right now, there is 8 spots between North and South America. I would assume that will stay the same. There's only 10 nations in South America. I really doubt 8 of them would take all the spots and leave the US and Mexico shut out completely. 

There would definitely be more peril for the US, but I think they would compete for one of those last 8 spots most years.

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Every four years I am very, very briefly excited by the slightest hope that Canada might make it to a World Cup.  Don't take that away from me please. 

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25 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

The merged Copa makes a lot of sense.  I think merging the associations would too but it probably excludes the US from the WC for a long time.  

I'm not so sure US would be ruled out of the WC at all, let alone for a long time.

Sure, the quality of the opposition would increase significantly but chances are US would make the WC more often than not in the first decade. US should have a pretty good ranking considering they are regulars in World Cups for a past decade or two.

Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are a fair bit ahead of USA and Chile has a good generation of players at the moment, but I'm not so certain others are much better than USA and Mexico.

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5 minutes ago, baxusz said:

I'm not so sure US would be ruled out of the WC at all, let alone for a long time.

Sure, the quality of the opposition would increase significantly but chances are US would make the WC more often than not in the first decade. US should have a pretty good ranking considering they are regulars in World Cups for a past decade or two.

Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are a fair bit ahead of USA and Chile has a good generation of players at the moment, but I'm not so certain others are much better than USA and Mexico.

Even if you include Colombia and Chile as nations that are definitely ahead of the US - that's still just five spots. The remaining contenders for the other three qualification spots would be Mexico, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela and the U.S. That's not exactly a murderer's row. 

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I'd say a few more than that are ahead of the US. Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Uruguay and Colombia are better. Brazil are systematically terrible, but Neymar and his successors will drag them through. Ecuador have a good generation, but in the long run are no better. That leaves one or two spaces to be filled by Costa Rica, Paraguay, Peru and the USA, plus whichever big teams have an off year. So they would decline from going to every World Cup to going most the time, but have the greatest potential to improve.

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26 minutes ago, Super Mario said:

I'd say a few more than that are ahead of the US. Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Uruguay and Colombia are better. Brazil are systematically terrible, but Neymar and his successors will drag them through. Ecuador have a good generation, but in the long run are no better. That leaves one or two spaces to be filled by Costa Rica, Paraguay, Peru and the USA, plus whichever big teams have an off year. So they would decline from going to every World Cup to going most the time, but have the greatest potential to improve.

If you put those six ahead of the US, then it's essentially four teams (USA, Costa Rica, Paraguay, Peru) battling for two spots. Unless you see FIFA taking away a qualification spot for them. I don't think that happens. I like the USA's chances in that group. It's not a sure thing, but I don't think it puts the US into a position where they are going to be shut out year after year.

I don't know what you mean by "whichever big team is having an off year" though. Seems like if that happens, then it's five teams battling for three spots. It's not like FIFA will take away a qualification position if a big team is having a bad cycle.

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9 minutes ago, MisterOJ said:

If you put those six ahead of the US, then it's essentially four teams (USA, Costa Rica, Paraguay, Peru) battling for two spots. Unless you see FIFA taking away a qualification spot for them. I don't think that happens. I like the USA's chances in that group. It's not a sure thing, but I don't think it puts the US into a position where they are going to be shut out year after year.

I don't know what you mean by "whichever big team is having an off year" though. Seems like if that happens, then it's five teams battling for three spots. It's not like FIFA will take away a qualification position if a big team is having a bad cycle.

Whilst this Ecuador side are good, then it is those four competing for one spot.

When Ecuador revert to average, it is five for two places.

When a big side plays badly, then it is six for three.

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Transfers: Dortmund signs Emre Mor (who rumoredly turned down Liverpool) from Nordsjælland and Rode from Bayern. Quite some changes in their squad.

In: Bartra, Demebelé, Merino, Mor, and Rode.

Out: Gündogan, Hummels.

Possibly on his way out: Mhkitaryan (Arsenal ?)

Possibly on his way in: Raphael Guerreiro (Lorient).

Other Rumours: Rodriguez (Wolfsburg) is still linked to Arsenal.

With Götze there are atm several rumours floating around. The one I posted earlier had him wait till the Euros are over, in the hopes he can attract interests from other top clubs by playing a good tournament (Madrid (either club would do), or if that does not happen, at least Arsenal). Another rumour is Juventus has shown interest in signing Götze and Benatia. 

And Leverkusen's Kramer is about to return to Gladbach.

 

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I just want these Euros to start already. 

You folk listening to any preview podcasts? I've been listening to the Guardian Weekly podcast which is quite decent. I hope The Tuesday Club do one as well. 

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Dortmund are the new Spurs, snaffling all of Liverpool's supposed targets: Bartra, Dembele, Mor & Guerreiro.  Mhkitaryan (very, very likely), Gundogan and Hummels is a huge loss to the spine of their team though.

I'm not trying to be too negative on the US but I think they'd struggle to qualify from a combined federation because they struggle to win games against decent teams due to their lack of goals and a general dearth of striking quality after Donovan and Dempsey.  In their current qualifying they can beat minnows like Canada and Haiti and muster a one-off performance against Mexico.  But I don't think their attacking play would score enough against well-organized teams from CONMEBOL.  Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Chile, Mexico (lately) all look a big step ahead of the US at the moment, which leaves you with Ecuador, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Paraguay, etc as teams that might be on par with the US and would probably be very difficult to beat.  Two many draws makes qualification difficult, even if it allows moderate success in the eventual tournament.

A lot would depend on how it's organized.  The current open league system of CONMEBOL would leave US in lower mid table and scrapping for qualification.  A system of groups might give the US a preferential seeding and help their chances.

But overall it would help the development of the USMNT over time by raising the standard of their competition.  But they still have a ceiling depending on the quality of players they can develop domestically (the best athletes don't pursue soccer), and the quality of competition they have at youth and intermediate level.

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