Howdyphillip

Euro Cup 2016

259 posts in this topic

4 minutes ago, The Wedgekovsky said:

Lose to Slovakia??  Nyet. Nyet. Nyet.

I must fuel my denial.

Where is my vodka?

I've heard the loser's lounge serves very good drinks.

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2 minutes ago, Ser Zlatan said:

I've heard the loser's lounge serves very good drinks.



So no Russian Vodka then. Only Polish.


And Swiss I suppose.

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Terrible game for the Russians. They are explicit outsiders of the group.

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to be fair, Hamsik's goal was mint. way too good for Napoli, he's probably one of the most loyal players about.

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After the first round of matches, it seems the fear that the Euro expansion would lead to an unbalanced tournament with lightweight teams suffering cricket score defeats was largely unwarranted.

The big teams have mostly been dominant in their games, but I don't think I've seen a match yet where the example has seemed a foregone conclusion (maybe apart from Poland - Northern Ireland). It's been a very evenly contested thing so far.

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10 hours ago, Mmerek Hamšzulíe said:

After the first round of matches, it seems the fear that the Euro expansion would lead to an unbalanced tournament with lightweight teams suffering cricket score defeats was largely unwarranted.

Yeah, it's mostly lead to a very defensive approach because 3 points are probably going to be enough to progress from the group stage.

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A few statistics. Only four final scores for 15 matches played so far: 2-0 (four times), 1-0 (four times), 1-1 (four times) and 2-1 (three times).

The team that scores the first goal usually wins the match (11 times) or at least draws (4 times). No team so far managed to reverse the situation after conceding the first goal.

Not a bad forecast for Wales in the second half, if you ask me...

Edited by 3StadtMueller

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1 hour ago, 3StadtMueller said:

A few statistics. Only four final scores for 15 matches played so far: 2-0 (four times), 1-0 (four times), 1-1 (four times) and 2-1 (three times).

The team that scores the first goal usually wins the match (11 times) or at least draws (4 times). No team so far managed to reverse the situation after conceding the first goal.

Not a bad forecast for Wales in the second half, if you ask me...

Well, you can forget that last bit.

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Of course England had to be involved in breaking statistics. 

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Speaking of statistics, this is a mightily useful table from stats king Omar Chaudhuri, which should help you calculate your team's chances of going through to the last 16:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClJ6nt9WYAADr8k.jpg

 

 

Edited by Emre Mor-mont

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10 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said:

Speaking of statistics, this is a mightily useful table from stats king Omar Chaudhuri, which should help you calculate your team's chances of going through to the last 16:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClJ6nt9WYAADr8k.jpg

 

 

Interesting chart. I wonder though, how was it calculated? I especially wonder how you can have a better chance if you have 3 points and a difference of +3 than if you have 4 points and a difference of -3. I also think that, from a mathematical point, you could have a situation where all first, second and third-placed teams from all groups have 6 points each, so you shouldn't be 100% through with just 4 points. (This is never going to be the case, but still...)

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Bwa-ha-ha-ha!  As I confidently predicted, the crafty Italians will bore you to death then hit you with a sucker punch. Greatest generation from Belgium, my foot.  Zlatan, my arse.  Italia schemes their way to the quarters!

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1 hour ago, Criston of House Shapper said:

Interesting chart. I wonder though, how was it calculated? I especially wonder how you can have a better chance if you have 3 points and a difference of +3 than if you have 4 points and a difference of -3. I also think that, from a mathematical point, you could have a situation where all first, second and third-placed teams from all groups have 6 points each, so you shouldn't be 100% through with just 4 points. (This is never going to be the case, but still...)

But if one team has 4 points, that situation can't happen. If the top 3 teams all have 6 points, they must have all beaten the bottom team, who will therefore have 0.

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15 hours ago, Maltrouane Fellaini said:

But if one team has 4 points, that situation can't happen. If the top 3 teams all have 6 points, they must have all beaten the bottom team, who will therefore have 0.

Yes, correct, in this tournament this can't happen, because there has been a tie in every single group. But you can still craft a narrative where each group ends with the top 3 teams at 4 points or more, with not all of them getting through to the knockout stage.

I'm just wondering what the math is with this chart and whether it makes any sense. I'm especially unclear whether this is a theoretical chart that was calculated before this tournament began, or with some of the matches already played out, making my theoretical situation impossible.

Realistically, I think 4 points will be enough to get through, but 3 points probably won't. In the 1994 World Cup, the third-placed teams that got through all had 4 points or more, while Russia missed the cut with 3.

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I'm not sure if this interests anyone, but I've made some predictions for the next round of games and put them through the third place teams algorithm and here's what I came out with. It might give people an idea of what could happen in the next round.

Round of 16

Switzerland v Poland

Spain v Iceland

England v Romania

Portugal v Belgium

Germany v Slovakia

Italy v Croatia

France v N. Ireland

Wales v Hungary

 

Quarter Finals

Switzerland/Poland v Spain/Iceland

England/Romania v Portugal/Belgium

Germany/Slovakia v Italy/Croatia

France/N. Ireland v Wales/Hungary

 

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57 minutes ago, Gylfi Gylfi Gylfi said:

I'm not sure if this interests anyone, but I've made some predictions for the next round of games and put them through the third place teams algorithm and here's what I came out with. It might give people an idea of what could happen in the next round.

Round of 16

Switzerland v Poland

Spain v Iceland

England v Romania

Portugal v Belgium

Germany v Slovakia

Italy v Croatia

France v N. Ireland

Wales v Hungary

 

Quarter Finals

Switzerland/Poland v Spain/Iceland

England/Romania v Portugal/Belgium

Germany/Slovakia v Italy/Croatia

France/N. Ireland v Wales/Hungary

 

So what exactly are the criteria for the 3rd place teams and how all this falls? I read them on wiki, and did not understand them one bit.

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58 minutes ago, Korvín-Corvinus said:

So what exactly are the criteria for the 3rd place teams and how all this falls? I read them on wiki, and did not understand them one bit.

Firstly the top four third pace teams go through to the next round, sorted by points and then goal difference (you probably already knew that). Then there's a table on the wikipedia page (under Knockout Phase Structure) that shows you the rest.

For example if the four best third place teams come from groups A, B, C and D, you just look at the table and it will tell you that in that situation, the winner of Group A will play the third place team from Group C. 

Basically you need to find out which groups the four best third place teams come from, and cross-reference it with that table.

If England top the group it looks likely that we'll end up playing Romania or Czech Republic.

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13 minutes ago, Gylfi Gylfi Gylfi said:

Firstly the top four third pace teams go through to the next round, sorted by points and then goal difference (you probably already knew that). Then there's a table on the wikipedia page (under Knockout Phase Structure) that shows you the rest.

For example if the four best third place teams come from groups A, B, C and D, you just look at the table and it will tell you that in that situation, the winner of Group A will play the third place team from Group C. 

Basically you need to find out which groups the four best third place teams come from, and cross-reference it with that table.

If England top the group it looks likely that we'll end up playing Romania or Czech Republic.

I see. The wording in the table "best ranked groups" confused me. I was trying to figure out how one established the best ranked groups.

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