Why do so many people disregard fAegon in their theories ?

[kimim]

57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't make any sense. Aegon is there as the cloth dragon in the vision since ACoK. He is not a sudden addition and would have shown up in the story with or without the five-year-gap.

Aegon could have been a minor complication--Dany meets him in Essos and smites him/makes a temporary alliance/whatever. I sometimes think that Quentyn did what Aegon's was originally supposed to do: Ask for a marriage alliance then go for a dragon when Dany rejects him. He'd feel that the dragon is his right--he is a Targ, or believes he is a Targ. What's difficult to accept is Aegon as a huge plot twist, as the character fated to lead the Westerosi factions working against Cersei. One indirect hint in Clash is not enough, and that's literally all there is, until Dance.

 

[King17]

I have a feeling euron greyjoy will kill aegon

[Guest]

My main problem with people dismissing Aegon is the fact ASOIAF is based on the War of the Roses, Henry Tudor, the ultimate winner, only came in with his armies at the end of the wars. If Aegon is based on Henry Tudor, which is likely if you compare their lives, he may well be the ultimate winner. However, the fact Tyrion described him younger than he should be if he was Aegon gives me doubts about his identity. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

People has already made their choice on who Aegon (Young Griff) is . He is either the son of Illyrio or of Varys .He can't be the son of Rhaegar and Elia or If you want a true knockdown drag-out suggest that he is only son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

[Winter's Cold]

3 hours ago, Stranger's Eyes said:

My main problem with people dismissing Aegon is the fact ASOIAF is based on the War of the Roses, Henry Tudor, the ultimate winner, only came in with his armies at the end of the wars. If Aegon is based on Henry Tudor, which is likely if you compare their lives, he may well be the ultimate winner. However, the fact Tyrion described him younger than he should be if he was Aegon gives me doubts about his identity. 

Why would Martin be satisfied with copying the ending of the War of the Roses? 

[House Beaudreau]

On 6/3/2016 at 3:01 PM, CJ McLannister said:

He's not Jon or Dany.  Nobody has proclaimed him the Prince that was Promised* or Azor Ahai reborn.  He's thought to be the mummer's dragon.  He can have an impact, but ultimately he'll be removed to make way for others.

 

*Unless of course he's the real Aegon, in which case Rhaegar explicitly proclaimed him the Prince that was Promised.

There is no prince that was promised. Prophecies are all man made creation. 

[House Beaudreau]

On 6/3/2016 at 3:14 PM, Radu Alex said:

 

On the other hand I agree with what was said above - GRRM has introduced him quite late in the story - almost as an afterthought. But as for what that might mean I do not know. The latest chapters from Drone are interesting in that we know he took Storm's End and did not die. And that is huge. However, from the same chapter we also know the Tyrells and Lannisters haven't slaughtered each other and are marching against him. So...

the Tyrell army will get slaughtered by Aegon and the Golden Company. Especially because Randyll Tarly will most likely stay in Kings Landing because of his position as master of laws and to keep the peace between the Faith and the Lannister/Tyrell Monarchy.  

[House Beaudreau]

1 hour ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

People has already made their choice on who Aegon (Young Griff) is . He is either the son of Illyrio or of Varys .He can't be the son of Rhaegar and Elia or If you want a true knockdown drag-out suggest that he is only son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

He could be from the Blackfyre line which is why the Golden Company was willing to support him. 

[BalerionTheCat]

12 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

After a speech like this, Aegon is doomed. He will die.

I never said he was not doomed. There is no room for him and Daenerys. And I didn't say his existence was explicitly stated before book 5. My point was that GRRM planned his appearance from the start. It was not an afterthought between books 4 and 5.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

27 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I never said he was not doomed. There is no room for him and Daenerys. And I didn't say his existence was explicitly stated before book 5. My point was that GRRM planned his appearance from the start. It was not an afterthought between books 4 and 5.

I never claimed otherwise. I pointed out, though, that he appeared only in Book 5. So even if he was planned since 1990s, that he still was planned to be but a late distraction.

[BalerionTheCat]

31 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I never claimed otherwise. I pointed out, though, that he appeared only in Book 5. So even if he was planned since 1990s, that he still was planned to be but a late distraction.

I would not use late distraction. I don't see Aegon as a contestant to the IT, a player. He is a pawn in Illrio and Varys plot to gain the IT. In telling, it started with the 1st book. But in story, it started at least with Aegon early years, IMO with Varys joining Aerys council. And had its origin in the Blackfyre rebellions.

Aegon is just a pawn in Illrio's plans. He appears when necessary and will be trashed out with Illrio's plans.He is just a cog in the great Westeros history. His position in the narration doesn't really matter.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Of importance is the slower pace of the books. If GRRM originally intended Dany's arrival to be the mid point, he might not stick exactly to that, but it might still mean that we get at least two books of content including Aegon. He might not last at the end game but he still could be rather important. Robb and Ned died but there was importance to their story. The endgame phase of the books might be a lot further (if we even reach it) than we think.

So the fact that Aegon was introduced in book five might be less important, if we take into consideration that the story has been stretched in key events taking more books to happen, than GRRM originally expected, although that could also mean that it has grown out of control. 

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, kimim said:

Aegon could have been a minor complication--Dany meets him in Essos and smites him/makes a temporary alliance/whatever. I sometimes think that Quentyn did what Aegon's was originally supposed to do: Ask for a marriage alliance then go for a dragon when Dany rejects him. He'd feel that the dragon is his right--he is a Targ, or believes he is a Targ. What's difficult to accept is Aegon as a huge plot twist, as the character fated to lead the Westerosi factions working against Cersei. One indirect hint in Clash is not enough, and that's literally all there is, until Dance.

The cloth dragon in front of a cheering crowd has nothing to do with Daenerys directly. At least not in that vision. He is clearly imagined as rival pretender, a fake dragon (or a dragon controlled by others) who is used to steal Dany's thunder and win the love of the smallfolk and those lords in Westeros who still long for a Targaryen restoration.

One indirect hint in ACoK was also all we got about the Red Wedding in that book yet that came to pass as Daenerys saw it. Or the vision about Aerys' plan to burn KL. Not to mention that we did not only one vision/hint about Aegon. Rhaegar calling him the promised prince whose song is the Song of Ice and Fire is a scene that sticks with most people simply because it mentions the title of the entire series. From that point on people wonder whether Aegon is still alive because he is thought to be so important by Rhaegar.

In addition there are the obvious hints that Varys/Illyrio aren't fully in camp Viserys/Dany. They use them for their plans, yet we don't yet know what those plans are back in AGoT.

That Aegon is destined to crush the Lannisters-Tyrell alliance (or the remnants thereof) and take the Iron Throne from Tommen is obvious since AFfC. The whole plot of AFfC/ADwD was about weakening the rule of King Tommen as quickly and as thoroughly as possible. Even Euron plays into that whole thing, at least partially. The mistrust between Cersei and the Tyrells, the rising of the sparrow movement (the High Septon will proclaim Prince Aegon the true of the Iron Throne), the estrangement of Cersei and Jaime and the latter disappearing from court, the arrest of the queens, and the murder of Ser Kevan and Pycelle - the narrative purpose of all those things is to make it believable that Aegon can take the Iron Throne in a mere matter of weeks.

And as soon as a Targaryen king sits the Iron Throne again things will change. No Baratheon (or false Baratheon) pretender will stand much chance against that. The Targaryens have a history and an aura the other would-be royals simply lack. None of Cersei's children will be able to stand against that, if we assume one or both of them get away before the city is taken by Aegon.

1 minute ago, Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren said:

Of importance is the slower pace of the books. If GRRM originally intended Dany's arrival to be the mid point, he might not stick exactly to that, but it might still mean that we get at least two books of content including Aegon. He might not last at the end game but he still could be rather important. Robb and Ned died but there was importance to their story.

We have to differentiate here. Aegon might not have been there in the original conception of the story when it was just a trilogy. The outline we have read had Dany's conquest of Westeros as the topic of the second book, 'A Dance with Dragons'. In that sense the title actually makes a lot of sense because Westeros/the characters in Westeros would have danced with Dany's dragon(s) during her conquest of the continent.

In the trilogy setting there wouldn't have been any room for Aegon (or Littlefinger, Varys, the Freys/Boltons, Renly and Stannis, etc.). After all, back then the first book should also include the deaths of Robb and Catelyn. The plan back then was to have the Lannister regime take over the Iron Throne after Robert's death and eventually have 'Evil Jaime' usurp the throne himself (you can see remnants of these plans in the early descriptions of Jaime which make him seem and look kingly in Jon's eyes) who would then have been, most likely, Dany's primary enemy in ADwD. After all, he would have been the villain of the story in such a setting, the murderer of King Aerys as well as of Sansa's sonby Joffrey and other people that stood between him the Iron Throne. He would have been as ambitious as Ned Stark thought him to be in AGoT.

Now, that story disappeared during the writing process of AGoT. Littlefinger and Tywin took over many aspects of the 'Evil Jaime' character, and with the introduction of Varys and Illyrio the Aegon plan crept into the story. It is not that difficult to see how this occurred. George most likely had included some dude called Illyrio Mopatis whose original purpose just was to host Viserys and Dany and help them arrange the match between Dany and Drogo. But then George began asking himself why this guy helped and associated himself with the Targaryens. Sure, the answer that he profited from all that could have worked. But he clearly did not like that all that much. And then Varys entered the story - no idea how or why, probably when George began asking himself what the offices at Robert's court was and who was hanging out there. It is easy to see why he decided that a man like Littlefinger (a career politician and plotter would be much more interesting, layered, and believable as a guy who can amass power behind the scene than a man like Jaime). Varys may have grown from the idea that Robert needed some intelligence guy, and at first he may have just been that. But what if Illyrio and he worked together? What if the Targaryens still had some ally at court? And then things began to take form, one way or another.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We have to differentiate here. Aegon might not have been there in the original conception of the story when it was just a trilogy. The outline we have read had Dany's conquest of Westeros as the topic of the second book, 'A Dance with Dragons'. In that sense the title actually makes a lot of sense because Westeros/the characters in Westeros would have danced with Dany's dragon(s) during her conquest of the continent.

In the trilogy setting there wouldn't have been any room for Aegon (or Littlefinger, Varys, the Freys/Boltons, Renly and Stannis, etc.). After all, back then the first book should also include the deaths of Robb and Catelyn. The plan back then was to have the Lannister regime take over the Iron Throne after Robert's death and eventually have 'Evil Jaime' usurp the throne himself (you can see remnants of these plans in the early descriptions of Jaime which make him seem and look kingly in Jon's eyes) who would then have been, most likely, Dany's primary enemy in ADwD. After all, he would have been the villain of the story in such a setting, the murderer of King Aerys as well as of Sansa's sonby Joffrey and other people that stood between him the Iron Throne. He would have been as ambitious as Ned Stark thought him to be in AGoT.

Now, that story disappeared during the writing process of AGoT. Littlefinger and Tywin took over many aspects of the 'Evil Jaime' character, and with the introduction of Varys and Illyrio the Aegon plan crept into the story. It is not that difficult to see how this occurred. George most likely had included some dude called Illyrio Mopatis whose original purpose just was to host Viserys and Dany and help them arrange the match between Dany and Drogo. But then George began asking himself why this guy helped and associated himself with the Targaryens. Sure, the answer that he profited from all that could have worked. But he clearly did not like that all that much. And then Varys entered the story - no idea how or why, probably when George began asking himself what the offices at Robert's court was and who was hanging out there. It is easy to see why he decided that a man like Littlefinger (a career politician and plotter would be much more interesting, layered, and believable as a guy who can amass power behind the scene than a man like Jaime). Varys may have grown from the idea that Robert needed some intelligence guy, and at first he may have just been that. But what if Illyrio and he worked together? What if the Targaryens still had some ally at court? And then things began to take form, one way or another.

 

The storyline has changed, but I can't see a multi-faction civil war including dragons to take a very short of a time. Especially since Dany will need time to deal with Dothraki, Slavers Bay and reach Westeros in the first place. Despite the five books, and the storyline changing and stretching, we probably are still near the mid point. Although as for how many books are needed to finish it, it depends if they are books like A Storm of Swords or like AFFC/ADWD.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren said:

The storyline has changed, but I can't see a multi-faction civil war including dragons to take that short of a time. Especially since Dany will need time to reach Westeros in the first place. Despite the five books, and the storyline changing and stretching, we probably are still near the mid point.

Not sure what are you referring to. The original plan as per the outline was to make Dany the ruler of all the Dothraki immediately after she had hatched her dragon, singular then, and then the second book could have had invade her rather quickly.

We probably would have gotten some sort of Targaryen-Stark alliance because the Lannisters would have crushed the Starks as they did in the books, so an alliance there would have come naturally.

If you are talking about the structure of the book I'd say AFfC/ADwD were 'bridge novel' to begin the second big conflict the series will be about, the Second Dance of the Dragons, what was previously just to be Dany's conquest of Westeros. TWoW should finally set the stage for that by having Aegon take the throne and consolidate his power over vast portions of Westeros. No idea yet how exactly Euron is going to fit into all that but he'll remain and grow more powerful. ADoS would then most likely cover the actual Second Dance while at the same time the final conflict with the Others is also set up. The story there should progress with the usual slow pace because the Others only can make their move when the political story this side of the Wall has reached the point at which George wants them to attack.

Considering that the buildup for the Others is there since the first book I see no big narrative problems in that department. It should be easy to continue that story until the final climax is reached. However, unless we fool ourselves and claim that George just introduced many new characters and POVs in AFfC/ADwD just to kill them all off again in TWoW. Some narrative threads might reach an end, and so on, but as we saw with Robb being killed does not magically make your followers and friends disappear. Even if Aegon was to die, the Golden Company and his other goons would remain (although a case could be made that Strickland would just flee back to Essos).

The fact that the Others only can make their grand attack when things are ready this side of the Wall is the main reason why I don't see Stannis dying all that soon. He is a nice distraction and can help keep things interesting up there until things finally explode. Not to mention that Jon Snow's special destiny might narrative-wise only be revealed when the need arises (i.e. when the Others actually attack). Or perhaps even only thereafter during the final great counterattack finale plot. The way things seem to be set up at that front there is little indication that this heritage stuff is supposed to be revealed early on in the story.

In my opinion we can be sure that this series isn't going to be concluded in seven books. It needs at least 8-9, perhaps even more. Although there is a chance to allow the Second Dance to take place alongside the beginning of the attack of the Others, so more things might happen in one book than one might think. ASoS could also include the huge battle at the Wall as well as a lot of fighting and politicking down south.

But from a narrative point of view Dany and Aegon have to be at each other's throats before the threat of the Others becomes known all across Westeros or else a real war about those matters (who sits the Iron Throne) doesn't make much sense. And for that to happen we have to assume that the Others won't attack/cross the Wall in the next book because Dany is not likely to get to Westeros in the next book.

[Lady Fishbiscuit]

17 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Neither AeGriff nor Connington are aware he is fake as far as I can tell, if he is fake, which I lean toward. Connington was exiled before the Trident and Sack of KL, and IIRC wasn't brought into AeGriff's life until he was a number of years old. He would have had to buy into the story Varys was selling, which is that he rescued Rhaegar's son years earlier.

Furthermore, while not all readers may have caught the references to the Blackfyres, they are right there in the main series over the last three books, and are explicitly linked in the main series to the Golden Company which AeGriff ends the last book at the head of. I think it would be tragic if he really is Rhaegar's son and things go bad for him as I suspect they will. But I don't buy for a second that Varys would have let alone did save baby Aegon. His story only really works after the fact, after everyone knows the child's face was smashed. 

Yeah, I'm still open to either fake or real Aegon and you make some good points.  I'm leaning more 'real' at this point, but waiting to see what we get in winds.  I think the point is that it may not matter whether he is actually real or fake, what matters is what people believe (as per Varys' speech that real power resides where people believe it resides).  Re: the baby Aegon swap/save - Varys would do anything that serves his purposes and we still don't fully understand his motivations and end goal.  I'm not sure I could explain why he took such great risks to free Tyrion and get him out of Westeros.  He certainly could have done it - we are shown that he knows more about the red keep's secret passages and hidden doors than anyone else and he is pretty handy with disguises.  Whether he actually did is another matter, as you say.  

[kimim]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The cloth dragon in front of a cheering crowd has nothing to do with Daenerys directly. At least not in that vision. He is clearly imagined as rival pretender, a fake dragon (or a dragon controlled by others) who is used to steal Dany's thunder and win the love of the smallfolk and those lords in Westeros who still long for a Targaryen restoration.

One indirect hint in ACoK was also all we got about the Red Wedding in that book yet that came to pass as Daenerys saw it. Or the vision about Aerys' plan to burn KL. Not to mention that we did not only one vision/hint about Aegon. Rhaegar calling him the promised prince whose song is the Song of Ice and Fire is a scene that sticks with most people simply because it mentions the title of the entire series. From that point on people wonder whether Aegon is still alive because he is thought to be so important by Rhaegar.

In addition there are the obvious hints that Varys/Illyrio aren't fully in camp Viserys/Dany. They use them for their plans, yet we don't yet know what those plans are back in AGoT.

That Aegon is destined to crush the Lannisters-Tyrell alliance (or the remnants thereof) and take the Iron Throne from Tommen is obvious since AFfC. The whole plot of AFfC/ADwD was about weakening the rule of King Tommen as quickly and as thoroughly as possible. Even Euron plays into that whole thing, at least partially. The mistrust between Cersei and the Tyrells, the rising of the sparrow movement (the High Septon will proclaim Prince Aegon the true of the Iron Throne), the estrangement of Cersei and Jaime and the latter disappearing from court, the arrest of the queens, and the murder of Ser Kevan and Pycelle - the narrative purpose of all those things is to make it believable that Aegon can take the Iron Throne in a mere matter of weeks.

And as soon as a Targaryen king sits the Iron Throne again things will change. No Baratheon (or false Baratheon) pretender will stand much chance against that. The Targaryens have a history and an aura the other would-be royals simply lack. None of Cersei's children will be able to stand against that, if we assume one or both of them get away before the city is taken by Aegon.

The cloth dragon is in the "slayer of lies" and is obviously tied to Dany. It doesn't matter where she meets this dragon; she has to "slay" it, either metaphorically or literally. Aegon doing what Quentyn did would fit: Dany questions his credentials, denies marriage. He goes for her dragons, who smite him: Good bye, mummer's dragon, fake dragon. Aegon doesn't even have to be Varys's to be a "mummer's dragon." asoiaf is full of mummers. Being a "mummer," is a key part of being a player.

RW is no parallel to Aegon: In Cat's pov, Robb is doomed. Every chapter, every other sentence, involves something that hints at disaster. RW is the perfect culmination to all of these things, both shocking in its cruelty, yet completely predictable as well. Robb would marry the girl. Frey would feel insulted and take revenge. Cat would rely on tradition. Roose would turn against Robb. RW is the perfect storm.

HotU: I assumed that Rhaegar was wrong. There would be a "prince that was promised," but it wouldn't be Aegon, as he died. So I started to think of other "princes": Dany, given that Rhaegar seemed to look at her at the end of that vision, or Jon, who appears as a rose growing in a chink at the Wall.

It's been obvious for a long time that the Lannister-Tyrell alliance is doomed, and that Lannisters themselves are in for a decline. I'd put it earlier than Feast, back when Tyrion killed Tywin and ran for Essos. The narrative purpose of the things you list is to create chaos in Westeros, which benefits the Walkers, obviously. Chaos and Lannister decline also gives an opening for LF in the Vale, for Stannis in the North, etc. Even more, though, the chaos helps Dany. In fact, replace "Aegon" with Dany in the raven scene, and you lose nothing, but a placeholder butt on the IT while we wait for Dany to arrive.

 

[Lord Varys]

@kimim

The cloth dragon showed up in front of a cheering crowd. Quentyn wasn't cheered in Meereen, and Aegon wouldn't have been cheered, either, had he shown up in his place.

And the lies aren't about 'credentials' or 'claims', they are about people claiming to have Daenerys Targaryen's destiny. Stannis claims to be a savior, Aegon will claim to be a savior, and the stone beast most likely, too, one way or another.

Back in ACoK the Red Wedding wasn't everywhere. It was just a vision in the House of the Undying. When doom came nearer it was evident - with Aegon there are no such sign at all. He will take Storm's End and Arianne Martell is on her way to him to bring him 20,000 Dornish spears. And from then on everything is going fine because George has put up the pawns to fall in place. The Faith will proclaim him the true king, some Reach lords will join him, and the Riverlords will jump on the chance to support a non-Lannister pretender.

Rhaegar talked about three heads of the dragon. Aegon could still be one of them, even if he isn't the promised prince. Hell, even an Aegon descended from the Blackfyres could be a head of the dragon because he would be a Targaryen, too, like Stannis is in the eyes of Melisandre (due to his descent from Aegon V through the female line).

The removal of Tywin was the beginning of the decline of the Lannisters, yes, perhaps even the murder of Joffrey. But that did not set up Dany's conquest back in ASoS, it set up Aegon's conquest, either after the gap or now without a gap. George did not want to give us a fight of the Lannisters vs. Dany, or else Tywin would have lived and Jaime would have been more ambitious/competent.

[RoamingRonin]

10 hours ago, Winter's Cold said:

Why would Martin be satisfied with copying the ending of the War of the Roses? 

GRRM even said he doesn't copy history word for word.

[Bael's Bastard]

4 hours ago, Lady Fishbiscuit said:

Yeah, I'm still open to either fake or real Aegon and you make some good points.  I'm leaning more 'real' at this point, but waiting to see what we get in winds.  I think the point is that it may not matter whether he is actually real or fake, what matters is what people believe (as per Varys' speech that real power resides where people believe it resides).  Re: the baby Aegon swap/save - Varys would do anything that serves his purposes and we still don't fully understand his motivations and end goal.  I'm not sure I could explain why he took such great risks to free Tyrion and get him out of Westeros.  He certainly could have done it - we are shown that he knows more about the red keep's secret passages and hidden doors than anyone else and he is pretty handy with disguises.  Whether he actually did is another matter, as you say.  

I agree. I think the common people will generally welcome AeGriff as the son of Rhaegar returned from the dead to make Westeros great again. Many of them probably can't remember ever being wronged by a Targaryen, while being torn apart by Robert's Rebellion and the wars over the last couple years. The ruin brought by Stags, Lions, Wolves, and Fish is fresh in their minds. And I think many lords would see him as a solution whether they believe it or not. The north and riverlands in particular are ruled by hated houses and his support for Stark and Tully restorations could go a long way. I think any reveal (if there is one) of his true identity may be intended to have the biggest impact on him personally, not on whether he is supported or not.