Why do so many people disregard fAegon in their theories ?

[Lord Varys]

One could add that a lot of people don't seem to get the structure of this story. There was one conflict, Lannisters vs. Stark, basically, that is now over. In AFfC/ADwD new and completely different conflict begin that have basically little or nothing to do with the old ones. Some of the dangling threads continue (like the Stannis-Bolton conflict and the Northmen/Riverlands revenge plots) but the main focus of 'the middle story' is the Aegon-Dorne-Ironborn-Tyrells-story.

The children POVs - Bran, Sansa, Arya - will only play major (political) roles in the story in the very end, I think, when their training phases are over and they have attached themselves to this or that claimant or acquired some power themselves. Daenerys (and to a lesser degree Jon Snow) are excluded from that because they have been in a position of power since AGoT (Dany) or finally risen to such a position during the course of the story (Jon).

However, neither Dany nor Jon's stories are likely to shape the major conflicts in Westeros. Dany won't come to Westeros in TWoW, and I'd also be surprised if the Others already made their move in the next book. We are still in the phase were various people - Aegon, Euron, whoever is behind 'King Tommen', and Stannis are fighting for influence.

Some of these people might make it into the final story of the series, the real fight against the Others. and it will depend on what makes the best story when certain characters will be killed off. George could have Euron, Dany, or the Others kill Aegon, just as he can kill Stannis via the Boltons of the Others. It really depends on what sort of story he wants to tell.

But just as 'the Stark story' didn't end with the Red Wedding, the other stories might survive the end of certain figureheads and core characters, too. The Lannisters survived the deaths of Joffrey and Tywin, too, and presumably Cersei will also survive Tommen and Myrcella and remain a threat, although of far lesser importance.

In that sense even Euron, Aegon, perhaps even Stannis could survive the end of their campaigns under certain conditions. There is always the option of castrating somebody and making him your fool.

If we remember the three lies from the House of the Undying then it is not unlikely or impossible that both Stannis and Aegon will stick around until the Others make their move and cause more problems than they are going to solve by insisting that they are the heroes destined to stop them. That would make overall a more interesting story than both of them just dying in some strictly mundane campaigns.

[BalerionTheCat]

8 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Nope, he, not a mention of him, not a hypothesis of something like him, but he himself, appeared in the fifth book of the 7-book series. Hence he's but a distraction. He will thus distract, for a little while, and that's it.

I disagree. Illrio was not planning Daenerys' rise. And Viserys was obvious, from the start, a diversion. Aegon or something else, but Illrio had, from the start, a second card in his game.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I disagree. Illrio was not planning Daenerys' rise. And Viserys was obvious, from the start, a diversion. Aegon or something else, but Illrio had, from the start, a second card in his game.

Yeah, the 'Aegon plot' was always there in the guise of the true agenda of Varys and Illyrio. And they had had that other agenda in which Viserys and Dany were just pawns from the start. That is obvious in AGoT if you actually read the book.

[Lady Fishbiscuit]

1 hour ago, BalerionTheCat said:

1) He entered when he was needed. He entered with Daenerys' first chapter, or so. At least when it became obvious Viserys could not conquer Westeros and Illrio must have another plan. And when baby Aegon was described as a faceless horror.

2) Yes, he is to make Daenerys conquest an unjustified horror.

3) GRRM has not lost control of the story. He is driving us right where and how he wants it. Even if some don't like it.

[Dex the Dog]

I heartily believe (f)Aegon doesn't fit the endgame because, well, he's a bit too good to be true. Martin clearly likes "cripples, bastards and broken things" and that is the way his most important characters are going. He doesn not make plot-wise smooth moves with "surprising, humble but noble promised pretty kings who just pop out of nowhere to save the day" and make everything easy. He takes the characters we hate, puts them through one helluva shitstorm and when we have slowly learned to like the character, he kills them when they have served their purpose. OR he takes the characters we love and little by little, makes us hate them with all our heart before filling their purpose and killing them. He does not take a nice but boring character and then just make it more and more powerful nice character after pulling it out of his ass in the fift book. This series is all about plots and hints and wry games. There is absolutely no fun in the game if the real crafty storyline has been hidden from us the five first books. Martin likes to bluff, to double bluff and the duck if I know, he might want to octobluff us but simply not mentioning something at all is not a smart, interesting bluff.

Edit: forgot to mention. I think Aegon could be the real deal, too. But it simply doesn't matter because he does not fit the storytelling of the serie. Even if he was the real Azor Ahai and the Night Kind and could pop new gragon eggs out of his ass it wouldn't matter, he still will not be the key point of the endgame because of the reasons mentioned above.

[Lady Fishbiscuit]

In my view (and I appreciate that many will disagree), there's more hints pointing to him being real than fake, although either option is possible.  If he is a fake, then he doesn't seem to be in on the plot himself.

If he believes he is Aegon, and he has evidence to support this, it's not like anyone can do a DNA test to disprove it either.  It's all about whether people can be brought on side with him.  When they hear Danaerys is on her way with a vast army of screaming Dothraki and dragons, another Targ may seem like their only hope - it's not like she can call him Usurper if he is a Targ with a better claim than her.

I also find it unlikely that JonCon would be so on board with a Blackfyre plot and a fake Aegon - surely, as Rhaegar's devoted friend, he'd support Danaerys rather than a fake Aegon.  Or do people believe JonCon is in the dark about Aegon's fakeness too?  

Aegon is certainly not filler or an afterthought, the groundwork has been laid for him from the start.  When he does appear, we don't have to say "who?" Or look back through the books to see who he was and what happened to him; we know exactly who he is due to repeated telling of it and how he could be still alive.  You might as well say that Jon's parentage or the 3eC or the COTF are filler! Alternatively, if he is a Blackfyre pretender, anyone who hasn't read the worldbook or been on the forums would have to do some digging to understand what that was all about. 

He may well become unimportant as the whole game of thrones becomes unimportant with the whole of humanity facing being wiped out by a white walker / long night apocalypse.  As a few have said, we have no idea yet who will remain standing to take part in that battle or who, if anyone, will survive it.

@Lord Varys, I like your point about the 3 main conficts with the real fight being at the end.

[Dex the Dog]

Good thinking there, Lady FishBiscuit. I certainly think you can be right, the character propably was in Martin's plans from the start and he's a good move. BUT I suspect he is not that kind of a good move who really jumps to save the day and conquer Westeros. His importance to the plot can be something very different and his appearing may be designed to trick us to expect something completely else than what's really happening. He simply is not "Martin's kind of a character" and this is where I make my conclusions about him.

[Lord Varys]

The idea that Aegon is going to play the nice guy routine all through his story isn't really based all that much. He'll be a false savior so he has to suck at doing certain things. It could just be the grey plague pandemic that's coming, but it also could be that he takes of the gloves and becomes a tyrant after he has won his throne. I mean, he'll be cheered when he takes KL and is crowned and all, that seems to be clear from the vision in the House of the Undying, but what happens afterwards remains to be seen.

If Cersei escapes she could cause major chaos, especially if she ends up joining her forces with Euron.

[Lady Fishbiscuit]

1 hour ago, Dex the Dog said:

He simply is not "Martin's kind of a character" and this is where I make my conclusions about him.

That's a fair point, he's definitely not GRRM's unlikely hero type and seems a bit too polished and perfect and self assured. Although, Jamie Lannister was similar when we met him and we've since seen all sorts of hidden depths from him.

[Greymoon]

6 hours ago, butterbumps! said:

I tend to think one major, impactful purpose of Aegon is to render the idea of Jon's ever being seen as Rhaegar's legit son and heir by the people of Westeros somewhat impossible.

To the people of Westeros, Aegon will be the one fulfilling the "prince in hiding returns" storyline.   An "Aegon" was known by all to be the product of a sanctioned union between Rhaegar and Elia, so his trueborn legitimacy will be uncontested, and this Aegon looks every bit the part of Rhaegar's son.  Those inclined to support an heir of Rhaegar will put their faith behind this Aegon as king.

Even in the event Jon might want to publicly adopt a Targ identity (not happening, imo, but for the sake of argument), Aegon beat him to the punch.   How many long lost (legitimate) sons of Rhaegar coming out of the woodwork will the people believe?  And unlike Jon, Aegon really does look the part.  So I think Aegon's presence in the story really detracts from the idea that Jon will be seen by Westeros as Rhaegar's "true" heir and take his "rightful" place on the throne as a Targ.

I'm not so certain. imo, Aegon's role is to drive a wedge between Dany and the rest of westeros....similar to your argument, but instead of focusing on Jon, I think it's Dany who will suffer the consequences of Aegon's arrival in the game.

Here's why: Aegon is currently in westeros, Dany isn't. The riverlands, the north, Dorne and the Vale, all these regions are stirring. They will need to declare for a king sooner or later. The Riverlands will never accept Lannister rule, the north might accept Stannis....and what about the Vale? and Dorne? How long until Stannis is defeated? How long intil Dany sweeps in?

Aegon started his conquest right on time, he'll soon become the only "worthy" candidate to support. It's possible even, that the north joins Aegon precisely because Jon labours under the misconception that he is allying with his brother....and if Aegon is willing to accept Jon as his half-brother why would anyone contest the claim?

I expect Aegon to become a very popular king, loved by the smallfolk. So what happens when Dany arrives, claiming Aegon is a usurper? Who will believe her? What if she kills Aegon? Who will side with her, who will accuse her of kinslaying? How will Jon position himself, vis-à-vis Dany? 

If we look at the three dragons as metaphors for Dany, Jon and Aegon, we have...

1) Viserion representing Jon: the dragon is pale cream/white, calling to mind the personal coat of arm of Brynden Rivers, who like Jon was of both Targaryen and First Men descend and who, like Jon, was LC of the Night's Watch....  it was named after Viserys, the youngest of two brothers, and Jon is supposed to be the youngest of two....it was hurt along the neck during Quentyn's betrayal > parallel to Jon being hurt at the neck during the Ides of Marsh

2) Rhaegal representing Aegon : the dragon is green, the color of Aegon II, who like fAegon usurped the throne from the rightful heir, because she was a woman.... it was named after the eldest brother, Rhaegar...Aegon is also supposed to be the eldest of two brothers...and the name sounds like regal "kingly" and Aegon has a "kingly" Targaryen look

3) Drogon representing Dany. Black the color of Balerion (drawing a parallel between Dany's conquest in Essos and Aegon's conquest in westeros)...the color of Rhaenyra, the "Half-year-Queen", true heir of her father. The dragon was named after a Khal, and Dany is a Khaleesi.

What stands out is that Drogon is generaly on his own. Drogon destroyed the HotU, Drogon helped conquer Astapor, Drogon ate a little girl, Drogon escaped Meereen.  He's the only one of Dany's dragons that is not named after a Targaryen, while the other two are not only named after brothers and have been locked away together.

To me, these are clues as to how the Dance 2.0 will evolve. Dany vs Aegon + Jon.

[Bael's Bastard]

3 hours ago, Lady Fishbiscuit said:

In my view (and I appreciate that many will disagree), there's more hints pointing to him being real than fake, although either option is possible.  If he is a fake, then he doesn't seem to be in on the plot himself.

If he believes he is Aegon, and he has evidence to support this, it's not like anyone can do a DNA test to disprove it either.  It's all about whether people can be brought on side with him.  When they hear Danaerys is on her way with a vast army of screaming Dothraki and dragons, another Targ may seem like their only hope - it's not like she can call him Usurper if he is a Targ with a better claim than her.

I also find it unlikely that JonCon would be so on board with a Blackfyre plot and a fake Aegon - surely, as Rhaegar's devoted friend, he'd support Danaerys rather than a fake Aegon.  Or do people believe JonCon is in the dark about Aegon's fakeness too?  

Aegon is certainly not filler or an afterthought, the groundwork has been laid for him from the start.  When he does appear, we don't have to say "who?" Or look back through the books to see who he was and what happened to him; we know exactly who he is due to repeated telling of it and how he could be still alive.  You might as well say that Jon's parentage or the 3eC or the COTF are filler! Alternatively, if he is a Blackfyre pretender, anyone who hasn't read the worldbook or been on the forums would have to do some digging to understand what that was all about. 

He may well become unimportant as the whole game of thrones becomes unimportant with the whole of humanity facing being wiped out by a white walker / long night apocalypse.  As a few have said, we have no idea yet who will remain standing to take part in that battle or who, if anyone, will survive it.

@Lord Varys, I like your point about the 3 main conficts with the real fight being at the end.

Neither AeGriff nor Connington are aware he is fake as far as I can tell, if he is fake, which I lean toward. Connington was exiled before the Trident and Sack of KL, and IIRC wasn't brought into AeGriff's life until he was a number of years old. He would have had to buy into the story Varys was selling, which is that he rescued Rhaegar's son years earlier.

Furthermore, while not all readers may have caught the references to the Blackfyres, they are right there in the main series over the last three books, and are explicitly linked in the main series to the Golden Company which AeGriff ends the last book at the head of. I think it would be tragic if he really is Rhaegar's son and things go bad for him as I suspect they will. But I don't buy for a second that Varys would have let alone did save baby Aegon. His story only really works after the fact, after everyone knows the child's face was smashed. 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

6 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I disagree. Illrio was not planning Daenerys' rise. And Viserys was obvious, from the start, a diversion. Aegon or something else, but Illrio had, from the start, a second card in his game.

Was I unclear? Let's see. "He, not a mention of him, not a hypothesis of something like him, but he himself, appeared in the fifth book of the 7-book series". No, I think it's clear what am I talking about. Aegon did not appear in person before the fifth book of a 7-book series. And no, "it was obvious there had to be something else" does not count.
And if him being a latecomer isn't dooming enough, here's that little speech:

“He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

Now, doesn't that Aegon dude just sound a perfect king? That speech is a kiss of death for a character. That's a young soldier in the trenches, whipping out a photo of his beautiful fiancee. That's an old cop, divulging his retirement plans. That's Robb Stark, explaining how is he going to retake Moat Cailin. And Deadmeat with his evidence regarding the Kennedy assassination, and his solution for the global warming, and the insurance papers he'll sign as soon as he lands.

After a speech like this, Aegon is doomed. He will die.

[Dex the Dog]

22 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

 

After a speech like this, Aegon is doomed. He will die.

Either that, or he'll go full scale Targaryen crazy, drink lamp oil, kill and slice up a couple of his buddies into the biggest goddamn pot in Westeros and crawl under it huffing and puffing, thinking he can breate enough dragon fire to cook them to a stew.

Seriously, nice guys like that just... Don't stay so nice when we talk about asoiaf. They end up bad and/or mad and/or dead. It will go bad, real bad or despeakably horrendous.

[Ssangkall]

Isn't aegon reminiscent of the king that ended the war of the roses?  Coming from a distant land (france) and having a distant link to the throne (well not too distant).  If so, we know GRRM loves his history, and yea. 

Unless Jon being at the wall is metaphorical France. 

[Nevets]

2 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Now, doesn't that Aegon dude just sound a perfect king? That speech is a kiss of death for a character. That's a young soldier in the trenches, whipping out a photo of his beautiful fiancee. That's an old cop, divulging his retirement plans. That's Robb Stark, explaining how is he going to retake Moat Cailin. And Deadmeat with his evidence regarding the Kennedy assassination, and his solution for the global warming, and the insurance papers he'll sign as soon as he lands.

After a speech like this, Aegon is doomed. He will die.

Plus he is introduced in book 5 of 7, and hasn't got a major POV (with a real name instead of description) anywhere near him!  Might as well give him a bulls-eye as his sigil.  He's toast.

[Lord Varys]

@Ferocious Veldt Roarer

This won't be a seven books series. It will be eight or nine at a minimum.

Aegon might fail in the end but he won't die soon, and he certainly will have more success than Robb or anybody else in the beginning of his campaign. That is his point. He'll steal Dany's thunder and show the Realm what a Targaryen pretender can do.

The boy has not been set off to die an ignominious death before he can ever interact with Daenerys or meet Tyrion again. His doom might be that he did not keep his dragon close but it will take quite some time until he'll actually have to face a dragon. Until such time elephants should suffice, don't you think?

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Plus he is introduced in book 5 of 7, and hasn't got a major POV (with a real name instead of description) anywhere near him!  Might as well give him a bulls-eye as his sigil.  He's toast.

Arianne Martell is a real POV.

[kimim]

I think of him as a late addition GRRM used to fill time when he got rid of the five year gap. Dany is taking her time in Essos, so Westeros must be slowed down. Enter Aegon, as one more butt to sit the throne until Dany can show up and smite him.

As for Varys plots: They don't make sense. I'd get it if Varys's last act--killing Kevan--followed some set pattern, but it doesn't. All through Game, Varys wants to hurry Dany and Drogo's arrival on Westeros, while keeping Robert on the throne and preventing civil war between Lannisters and Starks. How does this make any sort of sense, if his ultimate aim is to sit Aegon on the IT? Dany and Drogo arrive on Westeros, and Robert, Ned, and Tywin smite them. Targ name gets permanently sullied by being tied to a bunch of barbarians, and Westeros is reunited as a result of this war. How does this help Aegon?

If the aim was to kill Dany and Viserys then this is a ridiculously indirect way of going about it. Dany and Viserys were at Illyrio's house with the magic mushrooms. If Illyrio wanted them dead, they would be dead. He clearly didn't want them dead. 

Anyhow, none of it makes any sense.

[PrinceIanMartell]

I think the whole idea of Aegon being a Blackfyre doesn't really matter. If Varys' speech at the end of Dance tells us anything, it's that Aegon has been groomed for this from childhood. It's pretty clear that neither of the Griffs are aware that he is a Blackfyre if that is indeed the case. Therefore, Aegon is theoretically the best suited candidate for Protector of the Realm. If the identity themes of ASoIaF are consistent, then Aegon is just as likely to be a part of developing those themes. The irony here would be that Young Griff is better suited to be king rather than the Mad Queen or the Bastard of the North (don't get me wrong, I love Dany and Jon).

I imagine that Aegon will continue to prove his claim through his actions and his ability to build support from powerful houses in Westeros. Ultimately, I imagine him being killed by some plot of Cersei's, some failing of Connington, or Dany herself. It would be fitting of Martin to spend much of Winds building up Aegon to the point where us as an audience see him as the last, best hope for Westeros only to have him killed off by one of the longtime characters we've seen fall from grace. Whatever Martin has in store is sure to please in my opinion.

[Lord Varys]

40 minutes ago, kimim said:

I think of him as a late addition GRRM used to fill time when he got rid of the five year gap. Dany is taking her time in Essos, so Westeros must be slowed down. Enter Aegon, as one more butt to sit the throne until Dany can show up and smite him.

That doesn't make any sense. Aegon is there as the cloth dragon in the vision since ACoK. He is not a sudden addition and would have shown up in the story with or without the five-year-gap.

[Daendrew]

The books were supposed to be a trilogy. The essence and main characters are established in A Game of Thrones. Someone suddenly mentioned for the first time 4,000 pages into the series will not be the pivotal character. But the characters will have to pivot around him.

As an extension of Vary's, he may have a more prominant role. 

We don't have theories around him because honestly, very few people care about him one way or another. His character doesn't have much screentime and he is already a pawn in many players games like Tyrion and Varys. 

George was almost a grandmaster and in chess even the lowiest of pawns can become a queen in eight steps.