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Aegon TWOW


LordImp

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Before I read The Forsaken I just knew Aegon would head for the Reach to save the day. It was perfect--Aegon the Savior on the heels of raping the Stormlands and inciting Dorne to join his rebellion.  Now I'm not even sure there will be a Reach once Euron is done making his play.   Gads that's some wicked business.   

It's completely possible Cersei will lose her mind and torch Kings Landing.   It's the capitol, sure, but it's not the only place in the Crownlands. If Aegon is smart he will go quell the uprisings there instead of the Reach.   I imagine the Dornish will want a piece of the Reach over Kings Landing...point is Aegon will have lots to save in either direction he needs to head.  As I understood Dany's vision in the House of the Undying, the dwarves represented the vying "kings" in Westeros at the time.  Until someone comes up with something better, I'll let Aeron's dwarves do the same.    Between Tommen, Stannis, Asha, Arienne, Euron, Little Finger and all the people behind them Aegon will have lots to do...if he manages to leave the Stormlands alive at all.   

I don't mean to downplay Aegon's importance at all.   There is plenty of good or evil he can do in TWOW.   I'm thinking Aegon is the only way Varys can resurface again and expect him to be pulling as many of Aegon's strings as he can.   I hope he stays single until he conquers the Crownlands at least..then he can marry the widow Margaery.    

I don't think these guys allow the fallen reigning rulers to live.   If Cersei's (or Tommen) in King's Landing when Aegon shows up, she will be killed if she doesn't do it for them 1st.   She was prepared to kill herself when Stannis was knocking at the door.   There will be no banishment to Lannisport.   She will be killed.   Jon Connington seems to be ruminating over his relative mercy during the Robert's Rebellion. I expect he will be much harder and merciless than he once was.  

All in all Aegon should have a very successful campaign across the southern realm   I can't see him actually leaving King's Landing alive which leaves the Riverlands, Vale, Westerlands, Iron Islands and The North wide open to Dany...or anyone who wants to rule the land.  The Riverlands are still a political powder keg and I expect them to become a very dangerous place, but critical in an overall conquering--Got to pass through to get pretty much anywhere else on land.    With Stannis in the North and Aegon in the South, Dany's options are becoming very limited for landing.    

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Aegon reminds me of Oberyn Martell. I feel like he is being set up to great fanfare for the readers, and just when he is about to have a shining moment, GRRM will cut him down. He may or may not get crowed and take the throne, I don't really know. But no way is he making it to the end of TWOW alive. Like Oberyn his job is to make the readers think one thing is going to happen, and when it doesn't, their death sets more events into motion.

If I HAD to bet I would say he may briefly hold the throne, if only because I believe Tommen is just as doomed as Aegon and someone has to be king after him until more principle characters converge on King's Landing.

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19 hours ago, Big Daddy said:

Aegon reminds me of Oberyn Martell. I feel like he is being set up to great fanfare for the readers, and just when he is about to have a shining moment, GRRM will cut him down. He may or may not get crowed and take the throne, I don't really know. But no way is he making it to the end of TWOW alive. Like Oberyn his job is to make the readers think one thing is going to happen, and when it doesn't, their death sets more events into motion.

If I HAD to bet I would say he may briefly hold the throne, if only because I believe Tommen is just as doomed as Aegon and someone has to be king after him until more principle characters converge on King's Landing.

I like the comparassion between Aegon and Oberyn. I think Aegon will mess up a lot in Westeros before dying and other characters will have to deal it (like Oberyn and Tyrion).

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On 6/8/2016 at 5:32 AM, The Drunkard said:

A Tyrell army is marching down from KL according to the Arianne chapter, presumably lead by Mace (given he wanted to destroy Connington in the epilogue), so I imagine Mace will bungle it and Connington and co. will win a great victory, and then have a relatively clear path to the capital. The Faith will declare for Aegon (as the Tyrell-Lannister group are tainted), and he'll have the city. 

After that, I'm not sure. If the slayer of lies thing means that Dany must kill him, he needs to remain relatively powerful for the actual slaying to be meaningful, so he can't get wrecked by Euron too early.

See I just don't see Mace coming down himself. In the epilogue at the Small Council meeting Mace had declared he would march down after the trials. And at the conclusion of book Kevan who was Regent is murdered. Kevan's death will usher in a dilemma, who becomes regent? Mace will likely want to place himself in that position and name someone else Hand, this will all look suspicious especially by Cersei. She may have command over the Lannister forces or at least she has Ser Robert. There will be such distrust among the Lannister and Tyrell forces inside the city. Everyone in the Red Keep will be alarmed and on high alert. Such a serious matter would probably keep Mace from leaving King's Landing since he will have to deal with the investigation of Kevan's murder and the trials.

Varys killed Kevan so that chaos and disorder would continue to preoccupy the Crown's time and hinder their response to Aegon. So I think Aegon will decide to march on KL and may succeed. He has momentum and forces, he has Varys, and Arianne is about to show up to possibly declare Dorne's allegiance. I think Aegon may sit on the Throne next but he's definitely not going to be the last.

Although I don't know if Aegon or Connington know about Varys.

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I think Aegon is going to King's Landing once he is done at Storm's End/dealing with the Tyrell army. I think he will take the IT, but won't sit on it too long. I get the feeling once he sits the throne he will send men to Oldtown, where Euron was, but by that time Euron will be gone, sailing for Blackwater Bay. Around this time the remaining ships of the Iron Fleet with Victorian will arrive and confront Euron. I imagine Vic will have a dragon, which he will think is under his control, but actually belongs to Euron. Euron will slay another brother and his ships will sail into King's Landing and start raiding. With the majority of Aegon's army off in the Reach, the city will fall to the Ironborn and Euron will mount two dragons that day. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

- Where will he head after Storms end?

Summerhall.

 

- Love interest ?

None, he is a man of the people.

 

And will there be some kind of relationship between him and Sansa?

Nope. He is still a boy compared to Harry. Sansa has the fire these days.

 

- Will he survive Winds of winter? 

Nope. JonCon unknowingly kills him in a fit of rage resulting from his greyscale.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎6‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 6:32 AM, The Drunkard said:

snip

 

On ‎8‎/‎19‎/‎2016 at 3:35 PM, Scorpion92 said:

snip

 

On ‎8‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 0:22 AM, Zulaica said:

snip

 

On ‎9‎/‎2‎/‎2016 at 1:13 PM, Locksley said:

snip

I find it odd that JonCon would march out of SE to face Mace in the field. Sure, JC has elephants, but he's badly outnumbered, and it would take a huge cock-up by Mace to lose -- which is not impossible, mind you, because Mace is a boob, but it is still a huge risk for JC. Note that this battle would take place in the thick of the Kingswood, where the effectiveness of elephants is blunted. And even if he wins, his already meager forces will take heavy losses. It's also highly unlikely that JC does not know what happened to Argilac the Arrogant when he left SE to fight in the field -- although, of course, Mace does not have a dragon.

As well, I'm suspicious of the claim that JC has taken Storm's End. He has barely a third of the 10G men that sailed from Volon Therys, and some of them must be left to garrison Griffin's Roost and the other castle's they've taken. SE has never been taken by force in the entire history of the realm, not even by the Storm God, so to take it JC must have used some guile that has eluded the most advanced military minds throughout the ages. Not impossible, but unlikely.

So here is what I think is going on:

SE is still in the hands of Lomas Estermont and JC won't want to risk his precious elephants by bashing their heads against the gate while defenders pour boiling oil on them. So he decides to march north, not to fight Mace but to parley with him. The deal is this: The GC will join Mace's army under cover to then march on SE. With 20,000 men storming the walls, there is a much better chance that elephants can take down the gates. Or if it is true that SE has already fallen, then they can just hand it over to Mace as if he was victorious. Then the GC will accompany Mace as he liberates the Reach from the ironmen, so he can return to KL as the conquering hero he has always imagined himself to be. Once inside, the GC, which is still undercover, can simply dispatch any and all Lannisters in the city and declare Aegon as the new dragon with Margaery as his queen.

This leaves Arianne out of the loop, of course, but since they don't need the Dornish anymore it's not really a problem.

Mace has to take this deal because his only alternative is to sit his arse at SE while ironmen rape and pillage the Reach, including Oldtown and Highgarden. True, he has Garlan marching a force into the region, but the ironmen have ships and are in control of the Mander, so they should be able to run their smash-and-grab operations for some time. And now that sellswords have landed all over Shipbreaker Bay and the crown's newest ships are gone, part of the Redwyne fleet will have remain in the east rather than head west to deal with the ironmen -- and Euron still has quite a few longships at his disposal.

In addition, the comment by one of the GC officers that "they still have friends in the Reach" suggests that even if Mace does not go along with this plan, his bannermen, particularly the Florents, might be willing to depose Mace on a promise that they would get Highgarden. And that, in fact, might be enough to get Estermont to open the gates, given that Stannis is married to a Florent.

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44 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 

 

 

I find it odd that JonCon would march out of SE to face Mace in the field. Sure, JC has elephants, but he's badly outnumbered, and it would take a huge cock-up by Mace to lose -- which is not impossible, mind you, because Mace is a boob, but it is still a huge risk for JC. Note that this battle would take place in the thick of the Kingswood, where the effectiveness of elephants is blunted. And even if he wins, his already meager forces will take heavy losses. It's also highly unlikely that JC does not know what happened to Argilac the Arrogant when he left SE to fight in the field -- although, of course, Mace does not have a dragon.

As well, I'm suspicious of the claim that JC has taken Storm's End. He has barely a third of the 10G men that sailed from Volon Therys, and some of them must be left to garrison Griffin's Roost and the other castle's they've taken. SE has never been taken by force in the entire history of the realm, not even by the Storm God, so to take it JC must have used some guile that has eluded the most advanced military minds throughout the ages. Not impossible, but unlikely.

So here is what I think is going on:

SE is still in the hands of Lomas Estermont and JC won't want to risk his precious elephants by bashing their heads against the gate while defenders pour boiling oil on them. So he decides to march north, not to fight Mace but to parley with him. The deal is this: The GC will join Mace's army under cover to then march on SE. With 20,000 men storming the walls, there is a much better chance that elephants can take down the gates. Or if it is true that SE has already fallen, then they can just hand it over to Mace as if he was victorious. Then the GC will accompany Mace as he liberates the Reach from the ironmen, so he can return to KL as the conquering hero he has always imagined himself to be. Once inside, the GC, which is still undercover, can simply dispatch any and all Lannisters in the city and declare Aegon as the new dragon with Margaery as his queen.

This leaves Arianne out of the loop, of course, but since they don't need the Dornish anymore it's not really a problem.

Mace has to take this deal because his only alternative is to sit his arse at SE while ironmen rape and pillage the Reach, including Oldtown and Highgarden. True, he has Garlan marching a force into the region, but the ironmen have ships and are in control of the Mander, so they should be able to run their smash-and-grab operations for some time. And now that sellswords have landed all over Shipbreaker Bay and the crown's newest ships are gone, part of the Redwyne fleet will have remain in the east rather than head west to deal with the ironmen -- and Euron still has quite a few longships at his disposal.

In addition, the comment by one of the GC officers that "they still have friends in the Reach" suggests that even if Mace does not go along with this plan, his bannermen, particularly the Florents, might be willing to depose Mace on a promise that they would get Highgarden. And that, in fact, might be enough to get Estermont to open the gates, given that Stannis is married to a Florent.

I bet you that Jon Connington indeed took Storm's End by guile, and there is no other conspiracy going on there. And Jon Connington NEEDS to defeat Mace Tyrell QUICKLY, because now that they have taken the regional capital of Stormlands, the eyes of Iron Throne and the realm are on them. They cannot afford to wait out the siege, because the more they wait, the more time Lannisters and Tyrells have to take care of them. And defeating Tyrell army in Kingswood will actually persuade the lords of Stormlands to join them and bolster their ranks, not to mention if Arianne is persuaded that Aegon is a real player on a chess board, Dornish troops will back them up as well.

Of course, it is risky to engage Tyrell army in the open, but given that the commander is Mace and NOT Randyll Tarly, and Mace the Ace NEEDS to be proven as a commander fraud that he is in this story, I have no doubt that Connington will come up with some strategic plan to crush the bigger Tyrell army. Golden Company is the most disciplined sell sword company there is on Planetos that implements all kinds of military units - infantry, cavalry, archers, elephants. Do not underestimate a capable commander with this kind of military unit.

I would recommend you to read this amazing article by BryndenBFish and why Jon Connington will engage Mace Tyrell and bring him a crushing blow:

https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2016/04/18/blood-of-the-conqueror-part-7-agincourt/

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On ‎8‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 0:22 AM, Zulaica said:

See I just don't see Mace coming down himself. In the epilogue at the Small Council meeting Mace had declared he would march down after the trials. And at the conclusion of book Kevan who was Regent is murdered. Kevan's death will usher in a dilemma, who becomes regent? Mace will likely want to place himself in that position and name someone else Hand, this will all look suspicious especially by Cersei. She may have command over the Lannister forces or at least she has Ser Robert. There will be such distrust among the Lannister and Tyrell forces inside the city. Everyone in the Red Keep will be alarmed and on high alert. Such a serious matter would probably keep Mace from leaving King's Landing since he will have to deal with the investigation of Kevan's murder and the trials.

Varys killed Kevan so that chaos and disorder would continue to preoccupy the Crown's time and hinder their response to Aegon. So I think Aegon will decide to march on KL and may succeed. He has momentum and forces, he has Varys, and Arianne is about to show up to possibly declare Dorne's allegiance. I think Aegon may sit on the Throne next but he's definitely not going to be the last.

Although I don't know if Aegon or Connington know about Varys.

Who becomes regent depends on who finds Kevans body first.  Since Varys wants Cersei back in power, and given what we heard in the Arya sample chapter from the Lannister guards, it sounds like that happened, so I assume Cersei finds Kevans body first, whether helped by Varys or not, and simply puts a form in front of Tommen for him to stamp, making her regent.

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On ‎9‎/‎25‎/‎2016 at 2:33 PM, Scorpion92 said:

I bet you that Jon Connington indeed took Storm's End by guile, and there is no other conspiracy going on there. And Jon Connington NEEDS to defeat Mace Tyrell QUICKLY, because now that they have taken the regional capital of Stormlands, the eyes of Iron Throne and the realm are on them. They cannot afford to wait out the siege, because the more they wait, the more time Lannisters and Tyrells have to take care of them. And defeating Tyrell army in Kingswood will actually persuade the lords of Stormlands to join them and bolster their ranks, not to mention if Arianne is persuaded that Aegon is a real player on a chess board, Dornish troops will back them up as well.

Of course, it is risky to engage Tyrell army in the open, but given that the commander is Mace and NOT Randyll Tarly, and Mace the Ace NEEDS to be proven as a commander fraud that he is in this story, I have no doubt that Connington will come up with some strategic plan to crush the bigger Tyrell army. Golden Company is the most disciplined sell sword company there is on Planetos that implements all kinds of military units - infantry, cavalry, archers, elephants. Do not underestimate a capable commander with this kind of military unit.

I would recommend you to read this amazing article by BryndenBFish and why Jon Connington will engage Mace Tyrell and bring him a crushing blow:

https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2016/04/18/blood-of-the-conqueror-part-7-agincourt/

Could be. JC does say he will take SE by guile, so he must have something in mind. But then Aegon wants to lead the "attack", so who knows what's happened since then.

But JC also knows that he can't take the realm alone. He need allies. Dorne would help, but the Reach would be a clincher, especially since he has intel that the alliance with the Lanns is not very strong. And by now, word has probably gotten out that Kevan is dead, leaving Cersei as the sole power center. So which would be better? A crushing blow against a powerful army that may or may not bring a less powerful army to your side (the Dornish) but would leave your already weakened sellsword force even more weakened? Or coopting that powerful army toward your own ends?

I think it's doubtful that many stormlords would join JC even if he did defeat Mace. The ones that aren't with Stannis in the north think that Tommen is both their king and the rightful heir to SE, so they would most likely look at JC as an invader, not a liberator. Besides, if the reports are correct, JC's men have already attacked Tarth, Estermont, the Crow's Nest and Rain House, so there is no reason why any of these houses would then support their attackers.

So let's say JC does defeat Mace's army and then marches north to KL. What then? He can't very well make peace with the Reach, so he'll need to conquer it in order to secure his flank for the eventual confrontation with Stannis. That means marching a good chunk of his Dornish army away from KL to fight not only Highgarden and Hightower but all the ironmen running loose in the region as well. All the while, there is still the Vale and the hostile storm houses to watch out for.

So the only hope that JC has of putting Aegon on the throne with any reasonable security is if the Reach is on their side, and he's not going to get that by crushing its army and killing its lord. I can't say what JC will do, but the smarter thing would be to try to get Mace to switch sides, and if not, get some of his bannermen to switch. Then he could lead Mace back to SE, wait until the siege is underway and then use his ships to flank the besiegers and take them unawares. So there is a way to take out Mace quickly if he does not go along with the plan, but it would be better for JC if he does because that gets him into KL for a near bloodless coup.

I agree with that article that archers can be very effective against mounted knights, but only if you can get them into position and protect them from being overrun by said knights. And since arrows will be less effective in dense woods than an open field, JC will have to maneuver Mace somewhere to his liking -- again, back toward SE would be the wisest course. And since Mace would only march in the first place if the threat to Margaery was lifted, it is certainly feasible that both Mace and Tarly are marching south. I agree that Tarly may not be as solid for Mace as he appears, but Tarly could also be the one to convince Mace to join with JC since he (Tarly) likely has a grasp of both the military and political situation.

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I believe Aegon will continue his conquest for a time. As quickly and peacefully as one can hope for. He should rally the Martels and the Faith. But Daenerys will believe he is the mummer's dragon and will fight him. They will be supported by opposing religions. We could have something like a religious war.

I'm not sure Daenerys and Cersei will meet. The Lannisters have a debt to pay to the Martels, not the Targaryen. I believe he should have the end of Cersei. But if GRRM was still, not long ago, writing chapters with Cersei, and Cersei has to burn KL, all should happen at the end of TWOW. There is also the question of the more beautiful queen Cersei should face. I don't see it could be Daenerys, maybe Sansa. But I have the crazy theory of Rhaenys trapped in her cat Balerion (like a dead skin changer, Aegon's wife was Blackwood), and returning in Myrcella's body, taking all Cersei has left and care for.

IMO Daenerys will have problems with Euron and her armies and her travel all along the book. At best she will have just landed at end of TWOW. And Aegon would be king (of the South), but it will not last.

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If JC's friends in the reach are looking to overthrow tyrell rule, then the GC doesn't need to negotiate with Mace to incorporate the Reachmen into their force.  If Tarly, Rowan and a few other major lords just switch sides on the eve of battle, the Tyrell host will collapse and scatter, with many following over to Aegon's cause...making him more appealing for the Dornish, remaining stormlords, and the traditional Targaryen supporters in the crownlands/riverlands.

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What bothers me is that we have three valuable instances which describe Aegon as not capable enough to fulfill  a leader's role (contrary to his high appraisal by Varys, when he talks about Aegon to the dying Kevan Lannister).

1. He seems to be rush and lusting for glory, when he announces to J. Connington, he himself would lead the attack on Storm's End. He also seems to get out of control of his mentor, letting him wait very long when he arrives in Connington's castle.

2. Tyrion fools him easy enough in the cyvasse-game on the river, and after losing reveals his hot temper, throwing the pieces all around, commanding Tyrion to pick them up.

3. Tyrion pushes Aegon delicately to abandon the plan to meet Daenerys in Mereen but to go right to Westeros for the sake of Aegon's better position towards Daenerys. If I recall correctly, later Tyrion innerly is amused that Aegon took the bait (thus splitting the Targaeryen forces).

And Tyrion is a master in detecting other character's strengths and weaknesses.

In short: I do not see Aegon go very far in the story. Will be the first time we see Varys fail in one of his principal plans.

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On ‎10‎.‎10‎.‎2016 at 1:14 PM, Greywater-Watch said:

What bothers me is that we have three valuable instances which describe Aegon as not capable enough to fulfill  a leader's role (contrary to his high appraisal by Varys, when he talks about Aegon to the dying Kevan Lannister).

1. He seems to be rush and lusting for glory, when he announces to J. Connington, he himself would lead the attack on Storm's End. He also seems to get out of control of his mentor, letting him wait very long when he arrives in Connington's castle.

2. Tyrion fools him easy enough in the cyvasse-game on the river, and after losing reveals his hot temper, throwing the pieces all around, commanding Tyrion to pick them up.

3. Tyrion pushes Aegon delicately to abandon the plan to meet Daenerys in Mereen but to go right to Westeros for the sake of Aegon's better position towards Daenerys. If I recall correctly, later Tyrion innerly is amused that Aegon took the bait (thus splitting the Targaeryen forces).

And Tyrion is a master in detecting other character's strengths and weaknesses.

In short: I do not see Aegon go very far in the story. Will be the first time we see Varys fail in one of his principal plans.

He seems to be a bit like the young Robert Baratheon, then. Capable of inspiring his followers, not necessarily good at lengthy planning - nor at losing. Robert was a mess as a king - but in battle, all would follow his lead.

As for getting out of control of his mentor, Connington did not raise Aegon to be a puppet but to take initiative. That is what Aegon does when he announces his plan to head for Storm's End himself. Connington knows he has to let go - he is just not happy about the timing. Letting go means to let Aegon make his own mistakes. For mistakes, timing is never good.

If going to Westeros instead of Mereen is a mistake, then that reflects more badly on Connington than on Aegon. Connington is much more experienced after all - and on a mission to keep Aegon from making grave mistakes. 

Aegon can, and probably will, fail - but I will only consider it a failure for Varys if Aegon fails at ruling. Just like Robert Baratheon did.

 

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Why is everyone so sure that Dany will kill Aegon?? The reverse is just as likely.

I think Aegon will win the support of Mace Tyrell and the Reach early in TWoW. And he will marry Arriane or either way Dorne will also declare for Aegon.

Then he will march on King's landing and Cercei will take tommen and flee to the Rock.

With the power of TheReach, Dorne, possibly some part of the stormlands and the GC I think Aegon will gain serious power andwill be declared King Aegon VI.

Then when Dany comes and decides to fight him I think it could go either way!

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1 hour ago, Goldfyre said:

Why is everyone so sure that Dany will kill Aegon?? The reverse is just as likely.

I think Aegon will win the support of Mace Tyrell and the Reach early in TWoW. And he will marry Arriane or either way Dorne will also declare for Aegon.

Then he will march on King's landing and Cercei will take tommen and flee to the Rock.

With the power of TheReach, Dorne, possibly some part of the stormlands and the GC I think Aegon will gain serious power andwill be declared King Aegon VI.

Then when Dany comes and decides to fight him I think it could go either way!

How is he supposed to get the Tyrells when he marries Arianne?

Why do you think it could go either way? Aegon doesn't have Dragons while Daenerys has at least one. It's exceedingly hard to kill a Dragon without Dragons. And that's without mentioning Daenerys will probably have an army of Unsullied, Freedmen, Sellswords and Dothraki at her back.

And before he mets Dany he will probably have to deal with Littlefinger and his allies(Vale & Riverlands probably), Euron Geryjoy and less likely but not completely unthinkable Stannis or whoever holds the North.

IMHO Aegon will be crucial in the Downfall of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance, he will rise high and then fall quickly.

 

BTW welcome to the forum !

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Well, if I imagine myself in Aegon's shoes, I think first he must get some prominent Westerosi allies who will support his claim. It does not seem reasonable to me to go conquer the King's Landing directly from Storm's End, having the Martell support or not. I believe he needs a wider base. The logical thing would be to ally himself with the Reach somehow - in exchange for facing the Ironborn together and/or in exchange for a marriage. As I expect Tommen to die (golden shrouds and all that), I believe the Tyrells may be looking for a new husband for Margaery the Forever Virgin soon. If they are out of the game already, then Randyll Tarly has some daughters to offer as well.

It's obvious that Aegon has some role to play. He can have Dorne's support without a marriage so his purpose probably is not to be Arianne's husband. He is fake, so he will probably not rule the Seven Kingdoms in the end. We don't have enough space in the books left so he probably won't be around for long. So my guess is he does something important and right after that he dies (like he conquers the KL and consequently gets killed by Euron, or kills Euron and consequently is killed by Daenerys, or finds about his illegitimacy and offs himself).

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