Outcome of the battle of the bastards[ potential spoilers]

[JonisHenryTudor]

10 hours ago, watcher of the night said:

Guerilla warfare is not mindless raiding and pilllaging.

"Committing to guerrilla warfare only affirms Westerosi suspicions that the wildllings raid, pillage, and rape." 

 

That is what I said...

 

 

Medieval armies attacked castles regularly. It was commonplace. Sieges lasted for long periods of time, and that is what this novel is based on. You're suggesting an avenue with no real proof that any of it will work. You're just assuming that if Jon follows your instructions he will somehow land a larger army. None of that is guaranteed. You're making a ton of assumptions without considering the presence of significant risks. He could turn the entire north against him. Instead of having 8000 men (whatever is at WF) across from him, he could have 25k across from him due to these guerrilla tactics,not to mention lose a huge chunk of his men to death or desertion. Jon probably doesn't have a deep well of supplies and provisions either. 

 

 Did you see the Glover scene? If the Glovers refused to listen to Jon after hearing the word wildling, what do you think the entire North is going to do once word spread (and it would) that Jon is raiding with wildlings trying to take over the north. Longstanding prejudices and fears will unite the north--even tentatively--against Jon. People may not like Ramsay, but they still fear and dislike the wildlings. Jon marching on Winterfell may not be the best move, but there is absolutely no guarantee that anything else would actually work. In addition, by taking this route Jon has also just given the north a valuable lesson....the wildlings are not a mindless rabble, and they can march together as one. That does more to break the stereotype than feeding the stereotype by guerrilla warfare. No, Jon's best move is to attack Winterfell regardless of the numbers. 

 

Battle of Stirling Bridge is probably one of the better examples. The Scots were in a difficult position, and it was fight or die. Very similar to Jon. Historians have estimated that Wallace had maybe 10,300 men against the English 16,000 -50k (high side). Dr. Prestwich seems to suggest roughly 18,000 or so. Wallace still attacked a better trained, a better armed, and perhaps, generally speaking, a better led army. Wallace won. The point is, the English were coming, they had to fight. Ramsay is not sitting around. He wants a fight. He also has Rickon. 

 

There are far too many variables involved. Hell the yorkist armies often undermanned when they clashed with the Lancastrians, and they won.  

[D2procon]

What if Ramsay digs up corpses from Winterfell and places them on the cross?

[CrypticWeirwood]

On June 8, 2016 at 1:00 PM, dbunting said:

Possibly Rickon and a turn coat Kartstark or such?

Being burnt to ashes on crosses would help explain why the Lady Melisandre couldn’t work her “magic” on the remains.

[Darkschaar]

Are there any RW hostages who could be the known characters on the crosses?

[JonisHenryTudor]

3 hours ago, Darkschaar said:

Are there any RW hostages who could be the known characters on the crosses?

Yes, but I am unsure where they are in the show. The greatjon is still captive, but that would not make much sense with the Smalljon "handing" Rickon over, so... 

[Lord Freypie]

Jon needs to lose for Littlefinger to save the day, think about it.

[Cas Stark]

G

6 hours ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

Yes, but I am unsure where they are in the show. The greatjon is still captive, but that would not make much sense with the Smalljon "handing" Rickon over, so... 

The Greatjon is dead in the show, remember, the Smalljon when he was complimenting Ramsay on killing Roose, said he'd have killed his own father but he was already dead.  Kinslaying is the new black.

Unless Jamie has or will mention captives at the Twins, it doesn't seem like there is a hostage element.

It's going to be exactly as predicted:  Jon attacks, with his rag tag group of dumb loyalists, they're being massacred.  Cue LF to show up and save the day.  Then somehow or other for reasons unknown, the North will decide to reward the zombie who got everyone killed by his suicidal attack with the rule of WF and the North.  Brad Fletcher Manderly will give his speech either right before or after the battle.

[CrypticWeirwood]

2 hours ago, Lord Freypie said:

Jon needs to lose for Littlefinger to save the day, think about it.

Pinkie’s heroism won't last.

[sun moon stars rain]

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It's going to be exactly as predicted:  Jon attacks, with his rag tag group of dumb loyalists, they're being massacred.  Cue LF to show up and save the day. 

And will it just be swept under the rug that if Sansa had told Jon about LF and Vale in "The Door" episode, maybe Jon's small Northern Houses, Wildlings, and likely Rickon wouldn't be killed?  I can't get around this and I love Sansa.  It's like, dude?

 

[Cas Stark]

1 minute ago, sun moon stars rain said:

And will it just be swept under the rug that if Sansa had told Jon about LF and Vale in "The Door" episode, maybe Jon's small Northern Houses, Wildlings, and likely Rickon wouldn't be killed?  I can't get around this and I love Sansa.  It's like, dude?

 

It will either never be mentioned, like no one on the show will wonder, where did this Vale army come from out of nowhere/how and when did Sansa contact them....

Or, all will be forgiven, because it will occur to no one on the show that if they started off their tour with "the Vale army is at moat cailin, waiting for our orders" it all would have gone down very differently, and that someone who is holding back that kind of information is either an idiot or going to double cross them eventually...but thats not the story the show wants to tell, so we'll get suicide attack/saved by LF/thanks to lying Sansa and then time to move on to something else.

[sun moon stars rain]

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.but thats not the story the show wants to tell, so we'll get suicide attack/saved by LF/thanks to lying Sansa and then time to move on to something else.

Sadly, it's just so obvious a thing for the characters, uh Jon and Davos, to ignore or accept.  Maybe canon fodder red-shirts Jon can handwave, but what of Rickon, the little brother who's heir to Winterfell with Bran beyond the Wall and Tormund, the major character Wildling or Wun-Wun to a lesser extent?  Why else make a deal of Brienne, the most honest character, asking Sansa, hey why'd you lie to Jon, one of the other more honest characters on the show?  

also, I just hate LF winning on any level considering Varys is right about him loving to be "King of the Ashes."  Of course, I don't think it's a coincidence that we have LF with Jon's contingent and Varys with Dany's contingent.  

Is it really that difficult to write reasonably well?  Oh, Sandsnakes, forget it.  

[JonisHenryTudor]

4 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

G

The Greatjon is dead in the show, remember, the Smalljon when he was complimenting Ramsay on killing Roose, said he'd have killed his own father but he was already dead.  Kinslaying is the new black.

Unless Jamie has or will mention captives at the Twins, it doesn't seem like there is a hostage element.

 

I missed that....

 

Otherwise, I can't think of any other hostages, unless of course Ramsay goes completely mad and strings up the Smalljon....

[Cas Stark]

13 minutes ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

I missed that....

 

Otherwise, I can't think of any other hostages, unless of course Ramsay goes completely mad and strings up the Smalljon....

LOL, I'd argue that would actually be smart.  He should torture him to find out everything he knows about Rickon, who knew about him among Umbers people...and then kill him.  He would aso kill Rickon Stark, not advertise he's got him, since he's not really a valuable hostage, but a massive threat--kinda why the princes in the tower disappeared-too risky to keep them alive. And anyone who mentions Rickon, he' woudl say everyone already knew Rickon was killed by Theon.  Then, he's disposed of two potential threats and may even be able to take over Umbers holdings directly.

But the plot will not allow that level of intelligent self preservation.

And then, there's also I guess the fact that in the show the North isn't going to rise for any Stark, like Roose thought they would.  

It's just a clusterfuck of stupidity in the Northern plot on the show that goes on and on.  Maybe it can regain some semblance of logic once the Starks retake Winterfell and we will stop seeing every character in that story acting outside of what reason dictates.

[JonisHenryTudor]

1 minute ago, Cas Stark said:

LOL, I'd argue that would actually be smart.  He should torture him to find out everything he knows about Rickon, who knew about him among Umbers people...and then kill him.  He would aso kill Rickon Stark, not advertise he's got him, since he's not really a valuable hostage, but a massive threat--kinda why the princes in the tower disappeared-too risky to keep them alive. And anyone who mentions Rickon, he' woudl say everyone already knew Rickon was killed by Theon.  Then, he's disposed of two potential threats and may even be able to take over Umbers holdings directly.

But the plot will not allow that level of intelligent self preservation.

 

Oh I agree. 

 

As far as the North plot. I wonder if D&D are going for the relief factor (perhaps shock), and Manderly, Glover, etc arrive unexpectedly. I will say that Glover looked willing if it were not for the wildlings. Perhaps he has a change of heart and decides on death/loyalty over "cowardice"/evil. Not suggesting that LF does not show up, but imagine the major clusterfuck if everyone arrived.  

[Cas Stark]

1 minute ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

Oh I agree. 

 

As far as the North plot. I wonder if D&D are going for the relief factor (perhaps shock), and Manderly, Glover, etc arrive unexpectedly. I will say that Glover looked willing if it were not for the wildlings. Perhaps he has a change of heart and decides on death/loyalty over "cowardice"/evil. Not suggesting that LF does not show up, but imagine the major clusterfuck if everyone arrived.  

I think it's a combination.  IMO, they really don't have much like, or certainly respect for any of the Starks except Arya.  And, it seems to be their idea of "dramatic tension" where the viewer sees, oh, no, poor Starks....even though they telegraphed totally that LF is going to arrive w//the Vale army, its only slightly less obvious than Brienne saying 30 times she was going to kill Stannis and then, lo and behold killing Stannis.

So, when the sad, rejected, outnumbered Starks win in the end, thanks to a last minute twist that everyone saw coming, this will be their idea of dramatic payoff. The fact that the lead up has totally gutted not only everything about how such a feudal society and it's loyalties would work, and any sense of loyalty to the Starks, or sense of history or any of that, seems to have escaped them.

It's down to: Starks are underdogs, then, SHOCK, they get supporters at the last minute and they win, woohoo.  It's moronic.  But then the Starks are the only thing that keeps me now very, very loosely tethered to the show and the remaining books.  So, to see them destroy this theme of loyalty and justice getting a payoff, it fries my brain.

Manderly is totally beside the point coming in so late in the game, and if he's as underwhelming as "Ray" Meribald and his not broken men speech, then he will be another waste of screen time.

[JonisHenryTudor]

2 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I think it's a combination.  IMO, they really don't have much like, or certainly respect for any of the Starks except Arya.  And, it seems to be their idea of "dramatic tension" where the viewer sees, oh, no, poor Starks....even though they telegraphed totally that LF is going to arrive w//the Vale army, its only slightly less obvious than Brienne saying 30 times she was going to kill Stannis and then, lo and behold killing Stannis.

So, when the sad, rejected, outnumbered Starks win in the end, thanks to a last minute twist that everyone saw coming, this will be their idea of dramatic payoff. The fact that the lead up has totally gutted not only everything about how such a feudal society and it's loyalties would work, and any sense of loyalty to the Starks, or sense of history or any of that, seems to have escaped them.

It's down to: Starks are underdogs, then, SHOCK, they get supporters at the last minute and they win, woohoo.  It's moronic.  But then the Starks are the only thing that keeps me now very, very loosely tethered to the show and the remaining books.  So, to see them destroy this theme of loyalty and justice getting a payoff, it fries my brain.

Manderly is totally beside the point coming in so late in the game, and if he's as underwhelming as "Ray" Meribald and his not broken men speech, then he will be another waste of screen time.

Yep. 

 

Manderely will show up late with a chicken wing in his hand. 

 

[Cas Stark]

26 minutes ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

Yep. 

 

Manderely will show up late with a chicken wing in his hand. 

 

I can't take credit for it, but someone else had the idea of what the show could have done w/Manderly which I thought was actually quite good. The Stark twits send Davos to Manderly.  Manderly goes on something akin to his anti Stark book rant, takes Davos prisoner.  Shows up at Winterfell w/Davos as another 'gift' for Ramsay.  Then, once inside WF, he somehow helps effect Ramsay's loss, and could at some stage give a show version of his book speech.  That could have been swapped out for the Glover bit, because why did we even need that except to remind us what a POS Robb Stark was, LOL.

That to me is how a good adaptation would work, it preserves the tone and the sense of the story within the confines of fewer characters.  And, to be honest, for show only people, if they did a good job of it, Manderly switching sides would actually be a surprise, where the audience says 'hell yeah, Bolton motherfuckers, take that'...but instead, we're going to let Littlefinger.

Dunno, I figure if a random person on the internet can come up with such a nice way to have preserved the essence of the story, I can't imagine why these supposedly super talented Emmy winners keep writing this tripe.  

[CrypticWeirwood]

53 minutes ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

Manderely will show up late with a chicken wing in his hand. 

That’s because Wyman is secretly Sandor in a fat-suit.

[watcher of the night]

On 2016. 06. 10. at 8:38 PM, JonisHenryTudor said:

"Committing to guerrilla warfare only affirms Westerosi suspicions that the wildllings raid, pillage, and rape." 

 

That is what I said...

 

Medieval armies attacked castles regularly. It was commonplace. Sieges lasted for long periods of time, and that is what this novel is based on. You're suggesting an avenue with no real proof that any of it will work.

 

What do you mean that it has no proof? That guerilla warfare has no proof? Seriously?

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You're just assuming that if Jon follows your instructions he will somehow land a larger army. None of that is guaranteed.

Of course it is not guaranteed, it is war but it is moronic to assume that Jon has no other choice but to attack a mcuh larger force head on.

 

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You're making a ton of assumptions without considering the presence of significant risks. He could turn the entire north against him. Instead of having 8000 men (whatever is at WF) across from him, he could have 25k across from him due to these guerrilla tactics,not to mention lose a huge chunk of his men to death or desertion. Jon probably doesn't have a deep well of supplies and provisions either. 

Again guerilla warfare does not imply the raiding of the smallfolk, in fact it is usually feasible if you have the support of them. And why would any of his men desert? Last but not least if there is any one  who can live off without supplies it is the wildlings: there were perfectly fine north of the wall without supplies.

 

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 Did you see the Glover scene? If the Glovers refused to listen to Jon after hearing the word wildling, what do you think the entire North is going to do once word spread (and it would) that Jon is raiding with wildlings trying to take over the north. Longstanding prejudices and fears will unite the north--even tentatively--against Jon. People may not like Ramsay, but they still fear and dislike the wildlings.

Could you forget this raining BS? I never said that and Jon does not have to do that.

 

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Jon marching on Winterfell may not be the best move, but there is absolutely no guarantee that anything else would actually work. In addition, by taking this route Jon has also just given the north a valuable lesson....the wildlings are not a mindless rabble, and they can march together as one. That does more to break the stereotype than feeding the stereotype by guerrilla warfare. No, Jon's best move is to attack Winterfell regardless of the numbers. 

Marching to Winterfell is a guaranteed suicide. The wildlings may march together aye, but fight together? They are not a trained fighting force to use them as his “mainline” is outright stupid. On top of that they have no armour, no shields, no helmets, armed with short swods and hunting spears. It is utter bollocks.

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Battle of Stirling Bridge is probably one of the better examples. The Scots were in a difficult position, and it was fight or die. Very similar to Jon. Historians have estimated that Wallace had maybe 10,300 men against the English 16,000 -50k (high side). Dr. Prestwich seems to suggest roughly 18,000 or so. Wallace still attacked a better trained, a better armed, and perhaps, generally speaking, a better led army. Wallace won. The point is, the English were coming, they had to fight. Ramsay is not sitting around. He wants a fight. He also has Rickon. 

 

Are you kidding? The Stirling bridge is the worst example you can come up. It is the very opposite of Jon’s situation:  (1) the Scotish were defending, (2) they were defending a river crossing: a narrow bridge (for heavens shake!), (3) as a result they controlled the number of the enemy forces they fought, in fact only some 2000 englishmen crossed the river so the Scotts had the numerical advantage, (4) they had schiltrons: a formation useful vs cavalry. Jon has none of these advantages: he is the attacker against an enemy who has prepared postion, the enemy has a much larger numerical advantage (even 1:3), Jon has no tactical advantage on the battlefield: Ramsay has better infantry, better archer, better much larger cavalry. Realictically it is slaughter not a fight.

Falkirk is a much better example, here the English slaughtered the numerically inferior Scottich forces using a combined armed approach (cavalry + archers). Ramsay should do the same thing and the results should be the same: total disaster for Jon’s forces. Of course, we all now that our hero will be saved by youknowwho... so it is utter bollocks.

Ps. I am not blaming Jon. Jon we knew from the previous episodes is disappeared. The Jon we have is a tool: a plot device. If he has to be dumb to advance plot X then he is dumb, if he has to be a brain dead zombi, then he is brain dead zombi ...

[JonisHenryTudor]

24 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I can't take credit for it, but someone else had the idea of what the show could have done w/Manderly which I thought was actually quite good. The Stark twits send Davos to Manderly.  Manderly goes on something akin to his anti Stark book rant, takes Davos prisoner.  Shows up at Winterfell w/Davos as another 'gift' for Ramsay.  Then, once inside WF, he somehow helps effect Ramsay's loss, and could at some stage give a show version of his book speech.  That could have been swapped out for the Glover bit, because why did we even need that except to remind us what a POS Robb Stark was, LOL.

That to me is how a good adaptation would work, it preserves the tone and the sense of the story within the confines of fewer characters.  And, to be honest, for show only people, if they did a good job of it, Manderly switching sides would actually be a surprise, where the audience says 'hell yeah, Bolton motherfuckers, take that'...but instead, we're going to let Littlefinger.

Dunno, I figure if a random person on the internet can come up with such a nice way to have preserved the essence of the story, I can't imagine why these supposedly super talented Emmy winners keep writing this tripe.  

That would have been a great idea. Sometimes I wonder if these changes are to keep the general story moving along, but also allowing Martin to have "his" story unspoiled or at least his version of it. 

Whatever happens will probably be a little clunky, but I can stomach it if the northern force arrives as well. To me, LF heading to the north just seems like a bad idea for the Starks; especially if Sansa appears to be playing Queen behind Jon's back. Unless of course, as some expect, Sansa has LF executed. As much as I want LF and his creepy voice gone, I am not sure how I like this idea or what it does to her character. 

 

Just now, CrypticWeirwood said:

That’s because Wyman is secretly Sandor in a fat-suit.

Hahaha. Oh hell. Wyman gives Ramsay the "talking speech".