Lord Varys

Winter warfare in TWoW (and later on)

112 posts in this topic

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, it doesn't. Walder could hold a door pretty much anywhere, with Bran taking possession of him. In fact, since this whole thing is obviously some sort of time warp with Walder having the 'Hold the door' thing affecting his entire life, time-warping back from the moment of his death there is actually only scenario imaginable where this is going to happen - the weirwood gate beneath the Nightfort.

We know that weirwoods feel time differently than animals and humans. Walder can only feel something of that sort, too (unless we assume Bran actually reaches back in time and has him hold some door in the past, which doesn't make a lot of sense), if he sort of merges or gets entangled with a weirwood and its magic. Now, Meera and Walder could eventually return from the cave (along with Jojen who might die during the journey, or only later) being protected by Bran but still hunted by the Others. If they pass through the Wall at the Night Gate Walder might die holding that door, or merge with the the gate in the process of holding it, causing ripple effect through time resulting in him losing his mind and being obsessed with 'holding the door' throughout his entire life because while he is doing that he no longer perceives time as a human being but like a weirwood does.

At least that's my take on that one. In the show the whole thing doesn't make any sense as depicted. Why should the Walder in the past be effected by Bran taking possession of him in the present?

The North won't be overrun. It won't even be able to resist the Others. It doesn't have much men left, and it is going to lose quite a few in the coming battles. The idea that war-torn country who lost more than half of it's entire strength in battle will have the strength left to fight a war against some ice demons and zombies without sufficient provisions and food in the middle of winter is just insane.

They certainly mean something. They just don't have learned anything about how to deal with the Others.

There won't be a rout because there won't be a battle. The Others won't declare war on them. The Wall will fall and that will be the end of it, basically. And if the Wall falls a lot people are likely going to die there, too. Many Northmen of them who end up deciding to hold the Wall against the Others together with Stannis and/or Jon.

Who do you think is going to be as stupid as to think he or she can stop a force who has brought down the Wall? Some people who don't have enough food to survive winter? I don't think so.

They did? Only if the Long Night was as long as you don't think it was. But that's beside the point. Last time the Others might have moved too early, or they might have had filled their own ranks while they were advancing (I'm talking Others here, not wights). That could have made them more vulnerable. In addition, back in those days there most likely were more greenseers and skinchangers around, not to mention the (good) Children of the Forest. Many people might actually have had obsidian weapons and so on, but they still could not stand against them.

Bran's knowledge will certainly be crucial. But I don't think the Others can be defeated in battle. They are obviously designed to that they can win any direct battle, using the soldiers of the enemy against him. They can't be defeated that way. Not after their army has reached a critical mass. And they most likely will reach that mass before the Wall is going to fall.

The people will be sick of war and incapable to fight back in coordinated way long before the Others even make their move. Not just in the North, pretty much everywhere. 

What you laid out is easily enough done by a bunch of men with horses and the ability to make fire. Are you saying the wildlings can't do that? In addition they would also be very good hunters who know their lands. They should be much better at finding wights than the Northmen ever will be, especially in light of the fact that they actually have quite a few skinchangers among their ranks. The Northmen are not likely to work with such people.

Thinking about that - you are aware of the fact that the Others would have won the war in a week of so if they actually could raise wights all over the place after the fall of the Wall? Those people down south have no clue that the Others exist nor how you fight them or their undead thralls. If in one night the dead would rise everywhere in Westeros then most of those wights would emerge victorious, killing tens of thousands of people in one single night. Some people might find out how to kill a wight before they are killed in turn, but thanks to the medieval setting they won't be able to inform anybody of their knowledge. And fire isn't a great weapon against the wights, anyway.

You are the one who suggested that the dead could rise all over the place. That's a tsunami of death. Winter and starvation could wear the people down long before the Others make their move. They are in no rush as far as we know. If they bide their time throughout the next book (which it looks they will) then war and winter will continue to do their work for them.

Honestly, how many such towers have our characters actually traveling the North seen? Not all that much. And besides, a tower isn't protection. The wights don't tire. Men do. Do you think twenty men can withstand the attack of a hundred wights in the cold of winter? They tire, the wights don't.

Well, you prefer your doomsday instant apocalypse scenario. I prefer the on where the wight armies are resisted, burned, and men fight back. I imagine things like whale oil becoming of great strategic value, with every warrior carrying a jar of oil to pour onto wights below a fortified stone wall, or outside an earthen ramp, setting it on fire. Wights aren't invincible. Fire burns them. And they're slow. And we don't know if a single Other has a finite number that he can animate.

Also, the number of dead that are not too decomposed for animation are not limitless in any one location. You're not going to raise 10,000 corpses in a single location at the drop of a hat. Perhaps on a recent battlefield, or where a massive plague has just broken out. But all of these things give us a more interesting story than just an instant apocalypse with no hope of fighting back.

Like the last time, men will fight to the bitter end.

We shall see who is right.

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2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, you prefer your doomsday instant apocalypse scenario. I prefer the on where the wight armies are resisted, burned, and men fight back.

I also want them to fight back. That is why I assume the Others won't rise the dead all across the Realm. I expect there to be some small resistance, and some people to resist in some castles for some time, but when the undead walk the land you have to retreat. The wildlings learned that, and the Northmen will, too.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I imagine things like whale oil becoming of great strategic value, with every warrior carrying a jar of oil to pour onto wights below a fortified stone wall, or outside an earthen ramp, setting it on fire. Wights aren't invincible. Fire burns them. And they're slow. And we don't know if a single Other has a finite number that he can animate.

That could work in those castles where such supplies already are. But this is not an action movie. The oil and any other means they might have to set wights afire will run out a lot sooner than the Others will ran out of wights.

Have you now understood why the idea of the Northmen (or anybody, really) trying to kill entire armies of wights during the day?

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Also, the number of dead that are not too decomposed for animation are not limitless in any one location. You're not going to raise 10,000 corpses in a single location at the drop of a hat.

I agree that the Others don't/can't revive skeletons. But quite a few of the wights are in a very decomposed state. They could be months or even a year old, or even older since they we saw all died beyond the Wall.

But you have to keep in mind that quite a few people with die each day in a large city like KL, Oldtown, or Lannisport. That's just a matter of statistics, and that number is going to increase in winter. In the country the same or an even higher number of people will die each die, of natural causes (and in winter also from starvation and cold). Thus the Others have potential soldiers everywhere where people live. That is a powerful way to fight a war. They don't need to resort to the corpses left on a battlefield (although they will go with them, too, of course). While people don't know they have to burn their dead they can't do anything about that.

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16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I also want them to fight back. That is why I assume the Others won't rise the dead all across the Realm. I expect there to be some small resistance, and some people to resist in some castles for some time, but when the undead walk the land you have to retreat. The wildlings learned that, and the Northmen will, too.

That could work in those castles where such supplies already are. But this is not an action movie. The oil and any other means they might have to set wights afire will run out a lot sooner than the Others will ran out of wights.

Have you now understood why the idea of the Northmen (or anybody, really) trying to kill entire armies of wights during the day?

I agree that the Others don't/can't revive skeletons. But quite a few of the wights are in a very decomposed state. They could be months or even a year old, or even older since they we saw all died beyond the Wall.

But you have to keep in mind that quite a few people with die each day in a large city like KL, Oldtown, or Lannisport. That's just a matter of statistics, and that number is going to increase in winter. In the country the same or an even higher number of people will die each die, of natural causes (and in winter also from starvation and cold). Thus the Others have potential soldiers everywhere where people live. That is a powerful way to fight a war. They don't need to resort to the corpses left on a battlefield (although they will go with them, too, of course). While people don't know they have to burn their dead they can't do anything about that.

I don't see why the idea to burn large numbers of wights during the day is problematic. If you find a dead body, you pile a heap of wood on it or douse it in oil, and you burn it. And with dogs, you can sniff out wight armies that are supposedly "deliberately" concealed under the snow. I have seen no evidence that the Others deliberately conceal any wights, by the way. So far, it could equally be that their animation spell simply collapses at dawn and the wights lie where they fall until nightfall.

In any case, what you raise above about cities etc. is why I think, just like in a zombie apocalypse in Walking Dead or whatever, the populated South will be in graver danger than the sparsely populated North. It's like Nebraska being a better place to be during the zombie apocalypse than Los Angeles.

In the North, it will certainly be possible to raise wights in small numbers in any given location. But large wight armies will have to be gathered over a large distance, and marched very far to arrive in their thousands at a particular fortification. Such a slow moving army will be spotted by scouts and outriders. And if you happen to scout it out, you can see where they fall at dawn, and burn those you can find, before retreating. Even if you only burn 10% per day, that's taking most of them out over the course of 10 days when they collapse each morning.

By contrast, in the South, the dense population makes such an endeavour less feasible. Wights can be anywhere that is populated within a few days.

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9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don't see why the idea to burn large numbers of wights during the day is problematic. If you find a dead body, you pile a heap of wood on it or douse it in oil, and you burn it.

In the snow you would need a lot of oil for that. Oil you would then lack in the night when the remaining wights are coming. You certainly would be able to burn some wights this way but not all that much. And you would even need more wood assuming wet wood is going to burn at all under those conditions.

In fact, if people find some rights lying around they should better hack them to pieces instead of wasting resources of good burning material. They will need all the wood they can get to keep their keeps and houses warm in winter, after all.

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And with dogs, you can sniff out wight armies that are supposedly "deliberately" concealed under the snow. I have seen no evidence that the Others deliberately conceal any wights, by the way. So far, it could equally be that their animation spell simply collapses at dawn and the wights lie where they fall until nightfall.

Remember the wights under the snow in front of the cave of the Children of the Forest? Presumably those weren't there by accident. If the wights didn't feel day coming (assuming day actually breaks the spell) and didn't go hiding somewhere (say, by burying themselves in snow or earth, or by looking for some holes in the earth, small caves, hollow trees, etc.) then the wildlings could have easily enough killed most/all of the wights threatening them. After all, if they were attacking the wildlings day would inevitably come and then the wights would be at the mercy of the men, right?

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In any case, what you raise above about cities etc. is why I think, just like in a zombie apocalypse in Walking Dead or whatever, the populated South will be in graver danger than the sparsely populated North. It's like Nebraska being a better place to be during the zombie apocalypse than Los Angeles.

This is why I think there won't be a zombie apocalypse scenario. You raised that idea by suggesting the Others could rise all the dead across Westeros as soon as the Wall fell.

But the problem with being in a less populated area is that you usually are spread thin throughout a large area. If you then encounter a large group of zombies you most likely can't defend yourself.

Since we have no reason to believe that anybody is going to expect the Wall to fall the Northmen won't gather at one place which they could then defend pretty effectively for quite some time. If the Others first targets all the smallfolk in their hovels and huts and little villages before turning against the castles it should be quite easy for them to kill everybody.

It will be winter, remember? The chances that somebody a hundred miles away from Last Hearth or Karhold is making it to that castle alive is pretty much zero. Especially if the persons we are talking about doesn't have any horses (quite likely if we are talking smallfolk) and not enough provisions to make such a long journey in the middle of winter. It would be even difficult if the dead weren't out to kill you at night.

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In the North, it will certainly be possible to raise wights in small numbers in any given location.

They won't be dependent on the dead they rise anew in the North. They should have tens of thousands of wights already and if they spread them out through the North rather than amassing them in one army they should kill enough men quickly enough to raise their numbers.

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But large wight armies will have to be gathered over a large distance, and marched very far to arrive in their thousands at a particular fortification.

Actually, they don't since they could have been amassed beyond the Wall. And they don't have to march in formation or a large army against some castle. They could just meet all beneath some castle walls without walking together.

But let's imagine the Wall falls today, a lot of people die, and the Others prepare to attack the Last Hearth. Now, winter has come, and the days have grown shorter. Let's assume that the Umbers have reason to believe that a large group of wights are marching against them and they are most likely going to reach the castle in the next night. They can only ride out and try to find and destroy the dormant wights if they are less than half a day's ride away from the castle. Else they would have to return in the dark and would become easy prey for the Others and wights. If we are talking of a six hour day this would involve a three hours ride radius around Last Hearth. Only to get there. Actually find and destroy the wights would take time, too.

Are you now understanding the problem?

Say, the Others amass an army right outside that radius and then march the wights against the castle in a single night. What then? And you should not forget the Others themselves. They have powers, too, and if they show up in front of a castle they should have means to open the gates quickly enough. If they can break the Wall they can also break some wooden doors.

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Such a slow moving army will be spotted by scouts and outriders. And if you happen to scout it out, you can see where they fall at dawn, and burn those you can find, before retreating. Even if you only burn 10% per day, that's taking most of them out over the course of 10 days when they collapse each morning.

One assumes that there won't be any scouts and outriders out of the castle in the middle of the night. Not with the Others and wights out there. Most/all of them are not likely to return. If the Weeper can kill some rangers then the Others certainly can kill some outriders.

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

By contrast, in the South, the dense population makes such an endeavour less feasible. Wights can be anywhere that is populated within a few days.

It is not just that. It is the fact that the dead rising everywhere would make and organized resistance impossible. And that not just in the South but also in the North. In the first night of the mass resurrection ten wights rising from a lichyard near a Northern village of a hundred people could kill them all simply because the people might all be sleeping and whoever wakes in time might fail to inform the others of the danger and/or never figure out how to kill them. In the next night it would then be 110 wights, and they don't have to stay all at one place.

And, you know, if the South would be overwhelmed so quickly then millions of wights raised in the Riverlands would cross the Neck and help their fellow wights take out all the resistance in the North. They could never hope to stand against half or three quarters of the Westerosi population turned wight.

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20 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Snip

 

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Snip

In ASOS-Chapter 25, Melisandre tells Davos this:

Quote

"The war," she affirmed. "There are two, Onion Knight. Not seven, not one, not a hundred or a thousand. Two! Do you think I crossed half the world to put yet another vain king on yet another empty throne? The war has been waged since time began, and before it is done, all men must choose where they will stand. On one side is R'hllor, the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow. Against him stands the Great Other whose name may not be spoken, the Lord of Darkness, the Soul of Ice, the God of Night and Terror. Ours is not a choice between Baratheon and Lannister, between Greyjoy and Stark. It is death we choose, or life. Darkness, or light."

This is not the only time we are told the coming long night is about the utter extinction of humanity, it is only the one I can find fairly quickly. However, it is clear that this is a story about an apocalypse. When an author tells this type of story there is only two ways the story can go. Either a group of people avert the coming catastrophe or the apocalypse is triggered. I used to be in the camp where the apocalypse would be averted. However, either the first or second (I can't remember which) Arianne chapter from TWOW, made it clear to me that GRRM intended to trigger the apocalypse and soon.

Anyhow, both of you seem to have resigned yourselves to apocalypse being triggered, but have come up with ways in your mind that the apocalypse will be a minor inconvenience at most.

Free Northman Reborn, here are some of the statistics of winter in the real world:

Murmansk, Russia, ~300,000 population, 40 days where the sun doesn't rise above the horizon

Niseko, Japan, ~4,700 population, 49.5 feet/17 meters annual snowfall

Yakutsk, Russia, ~270,000 population, average -34F/-36.7C high in January, with a record low of -83.9F/-64.4C

With examples like these of what our real world, natural winters can produce (and in places where people actually live), the relatively mild, slightly inconvenient, supernatural winter you describe would rightly be mocked.

Lord Varys, you state that you don't think there will be a zombie apocalypse, because, well, lots and lots of people would die. Hell yes! In a book where the entire human population is under threat of extinction, if GRRM doesn't kill off lots and lots of people then his story will rightly be mocked.

What is clear to me is that both of you really want the politicking and warring to continue despite the supernatural meltdown. Sadly, I think both of you are going to be very disappointed.

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4 hours ago, bent branch said:

In ASOS-Chapter 25, Melisandre tells Davos this.

Melisandre is not a good source for anything. Her religion is most likely false. There are no two gods fighting against each other, and thus her interpretation of the conflict between the Others and humanity is nonsense, plain and simple. It is us against them but not in the way she sees it.

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

This is not the only time we are told the coming long night is about the utter extinction of humanity, it is only the one I can find fairly quickly. However, it is clear that this is a story about an apocalypse. When an author tells this type of story there is only two ways the story can go. Either a group of people avert the coming catastrophe or the apocalypse is triggered. I used to be in the camp where the apocalypse would be averted. However, either the first or second (I can't remember which) Arianne chapter from TWOW, made it clear to me that GRRM intended to trigger the apocalypse and soon.

What's in there that suggests there will be an apocalypse soon?

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

Anyhow, both of you seem to have resigned yourselves to apocalypse being triggered, but have come up with ways in your mind that the apocalypse will be a minor inconvenience at most.

Certainly not. I just don't think everything is going to hell at every place as soon as the Wall think. I think it will take some time until the Wall falls still (due to a lot of stuff happening in the South right now that first has to be resolved and because there has been no buildup for the fall of the Wall as of yet). The people at the Wall think they can actually hold it.

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

With examples like these of what our real world, natural winters can produce (and in places where people actually live), the relatively mild, slightly inconvenient, supernatural winter you describe would rightly be mocked.

I guess the people in the places you describe don't go to war or waste their resources in rather strange enterprises when it is as cold as that, right?

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

Lord Varys, you state that you don't think there will be a zombie apocalypse, because, well, lots and lots of people would die. Hell yes! In a book where the entire human population is under threat of extinction, if GRRM doesn't kill off lots and lots of people then his story will rightly be mocked.

That is not what I'm saying. I say the zombie apocalypse will take its time and the Others will most likely mostly work with their wight army. The dead won't rise everywhere until the Others are pretty much everywhere. And that's going to take some time, even after the Wall has fallen. Else I think the Others should win the war in a matter of 1-2 weeks.

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

What is clear to me is that both of you really want the politicking and warring to continue despite the supernatural meltdown. Sadly, I think both of you are going to be very disappointed.

Once the meltdown will come things will go to hell everywhere, that much is clear. What this is about is just the effects of winter on mundane politicking and warfare while the Others don't yet attack. I think there is a very good chance that the majority of the people will continue to not care about the threat beyond the Wall in TWoW, and thus continue to try to kill each other for the time being. But winter will begin to severe restrict their capabilities to do so. And, of course, later, too, their capability to fight against the Others and wights. They own winter. The people do not. They die in winter.

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 @Lord Varys You say this.
 

Quote

"a lot of stuff happening in the South right now that first has to be resolved"

Quote

~Ignore this quote~

And I instantly  think in horror stories this isn't the case the "bads" don't give the characters a chance to wrap up details. There could be a million and on subplots happening and they get wrapped up once the "bads" come for them. Don't get me wrong I could be wrong I'm just suggesting another out look. In real life if nukes went off the blast won't give you time to even close the refrigerator.... let alone survive by going inside it. Ha! 

Anyway great thoughts everyone.

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1 hour ago, The Great and Mighty Poo said:

 @Lord Varys You say this.
 

And I instantly  think in horror stories this isn't the case the "bads" don't give the characters a chance to wrap up details. There could be a million and on subplots happening and they get wrapped up once the "bads" come for them. Don't get me wrong I could be wrong I'm just suggesting another out look. In real life if nukes went off the blast won't give you time to even close the refrigerator.... let alone survive by going inside it. Ha! 

That certainly is true. And I'm not saying the Others won't cut short whatever stuff is going on when they finally make their move. But I doubt this is going to happen while Dany is still hanging out in Vaes Dothrak nor do I think Euron, Aegon, Arianne, etc. were all introduced to freeze to death and become wights. They have a story of their own, a story that will be connected with Dany's conquest of Westeros.

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6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That certainly is true. And I'm not saying the Others won't cut short whatever stuff is going on when they finally make their move. But I doubt this is going to happen while Dany is still hanging out in Vaes Dothrak nor do I think Euron, Aegon, Arianne, etc. were all introduced to freeze to death and become wights. They have a story of their own, a story that will be connected with Dany's conquest of Westeros.

That's very true. Good writers don't just throw people or things in their story arbitrarily. A rule of thumb is to cut the access fat off and make every word count. Also will we feel robbed if the so called bad guys like Euron and Cercei don't get their dues? Western culture will think so. Bad guys need to be punished. For a real life example look how my fellow Americans feel about crime and punishment(I know it's just a by product of our judicial system but let's not get into that.) It's all about the punishment for the crime. However, in Japanese fiction this is not the case. Their bad guys, for the most part, normally don't pay for their crimes and mistakes. They have an epiphany, a realization and correct themselves or they are won over by the hero(es). Sometimes even sacrificing themselves to undo what they did. Other times just flat out admitting they were wrong and many other examples of learning from the crime rather then punishment. Sorry that went on forever. 

Having said that I have always imagined that a tone, at least in part, of the story will switch to a horror- that even the "bad guys" like Euron and Cercei will have to deal with the horror of the WWs in their archs. How will they face this new wall put in their way? How can they still achieve their goals? What does this mean for them? The problem with this is if not done with finesse and skill it will feel as if our POV'S just stop being them, as if they don't have goals or they arnt their own personame. It basically breaks off an already set narrative. "The train clashed, people were dying. He climbed a mountain"

After typing that I realized we actually see an example of the narrative and a arch stopping in the story. I'm hoping I can explain this thought correctly. I feel like im going to butcher it. Let's say we cut out the prologue. We never get to read it. In the northern arch; to our eyes the bad guys are the wildlings. That's the narrative. (It has been too long for me to remember all Jon's goals before he gets to learn it's not the wildlings he needs to worry about. So let's just say I list them) so now we see Jon as Lord Commander and he is setting himself up for battle with white walkers. Basically it was a subtle change but it was there. 

One last thought, to be more on topic I believe when winter truly hits everywhere it's not going to be a winter war its going to be a bunch of the last hero's, a bunch of fellowship of the Ring. That each PoV will have its own small group sometimes being together other times not but with the goal of dealing with the WW threat.  

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On 6/6/2016 at 4:51 PM, Lord Varys said:

How do you imagine warfare in winter?

A lot of people seem to fail to realize that conventional warfare in winter is very difficult/impossible (due to roads/passes being impassable), not to mention that food and provisions would be even more difficult to come by and the speed in which an army could move would go down to a crawl.

Considering the vast distance in Westeros the idea of large armies moving north-south or east-west should be over soon.

Any thoughts on that? Other ideas? Does the weather matter?

Interesting points. The northerners are experienced with long winters sometimes lasting many years. In the past they have survived, so they must have a way of obtaining and storing food. There are people living in Siberia year round.. and Alaska ... and northern Norway/Sweden/Finland. There are also people who live year-round in Antarctica... but that depends heavily on modern technology. Perhaps GRRM has to invent some kind of technology equivalent magic in order to help Northerners survive the long winter. 

Of course semi-hibernation is much different than warfare. Before his death, Jon Snow was busy re-occupying the forts along the Wall. The ability to move troops quickly is critical in war. The forts will probably play a huge role in logistics. Shelter is critical in sub-zero temperatures. Moving soldiers laterally, hopping from fort-to-fort might be the best strategy for Winter logistics. Supplies would need to flow through Eastwatch. The Wall provides a natural barrier to strong winds from the north. Hence it might be much easier than you think to move people and supplies along the Wall.

Resting stations can be built at ~10 mile intervals between each castle along the wall. These stations will be build of snow/ice. Snow is a great building material. It's so easy to work with that children do it all the time. With the long winter these resting stations will last for years.

The alternative might be to travel along the top of the wall. Keeping the path clear of snow up there might be unnecessary if the winds are high enough.

 

The rivers of the North will either be frozen over or be slow moving. It is possible to move supplies up a slow flowing river by ship either by towing or by sail if the winds are right. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by MorgulisMaximus

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On 6/6/2016 at 10:51 PM, Lord Varys said:

How do you imagine warfare in winter?

BTW, How was the weather during Robert's Rebellion?

We know that trouble began at the Tourney at Harrenhal, 281 AC, known as the year of false spring. Weather was becoming warm but then reversed, so some kind of winter followed afterward. But for how long and how hard? The references I found are sketchy but it seems that winter lasted till 282 AC, so it is indeed possible that some major battles were fought in winter conditions.

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

BTW, How was the weather during Robert's Rebellion?

We know that trouble began at the Tourney at Harrenhal, 281 AC, known as the year of false spring. Weather was becoming warm but then reversed, so some kind of winter followed afterward. But for how long and how hard? The references I found are sketchy but it seems that winter lasted till 282 AC, so it is indeed possible that some major battles were fought in winter conditions.

I expect that spring had officially begun when the fighting started. But that is just a guess. We know that Dany was born during a summer storm, so by that time it would have been summer. Spring and autumn don't seem to last as long as either summer or winter.

It might even be that spring had already begun when Lyanna was abducted.

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