Sansa saving Winterfell, wildlings and the northerners

[Nymeria Pao]

On 6/9/2016 at 6:26 AM, tugela said:

Not really. Jon would still be a bastard, and bastards don't count in the social order. They are not eligible to inherit anything unless legitimized, and no one has the authority to legitimize a Targaryen other than Tommen.

Has anyone pointed out the fact that King Robb legitimized Jon and made him his heir?  Jon has been Jon Stark for the past 3 seasons, he just didn't know.  I think who ever has that decree will give it to him after the battle and he will be crowned KotN. 

[Juggzy]

On 6/8/2016 at 4:04 AM, Pies are coming said:

Jon wouldn't deny help at this point. The problem is how is Sansa going to explain to Jon why the freaking armies of the Vale were at the North's entrance waiting for her to call them in and she never said a word!

I think if you go back to the conversation between them in the Winterfell crypt in S5, you'll find your answer.  Apart from little fingers poignant silence on the matter of Lyanna and Rhaegon, there's a long discussion on rape and playing the game and what Littlefinger wants and how he plays the game (also in the cabin on the boat).  Essentially, after her betrayal at the hands of Littlefinger, leaving her with Ramsay, she really doesn't trust him.  That's why she lied to Jon. 

[ViserionsFire]

1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

It's a shame that the only way the show can find to prop up Sansa and make her empowered is to make Jon stupid.  Too stupid to lead an army or rule the North.  

Sansa wasn't around to see any of the events that raised Jon to LC. She wasn't in Robb's camp to see how he outmanuevered Jaime even though Jaime had the greater forces. When Sansa hasn't felt as though she was threatened  or a captive, her decisions have always been self fulfilling much like her mother (who grew up with Littlefinger). Sansa still see's Jon as her outcast bastard brother and doesn't trust his ability even though he was taught strategy the same as Robb. That Jon's won over the North's ancient enemies, the Wildlings, is to her what the Wildlings were obligated to do. Yes, Sansa saw the results of a disparaged Stannis who at the time had burned his only child causing the vast amount of his support leave him. Stannis then finds that his wife hung herself with grief and that Melisandre who instigated his rise to power abandoned him. By the time Stannis got to Winterfell he was on a suicide mission.  That is not the case with Jon or the Wildlings, who are fighting for more than to recover past glory. As Karstark told Ramsey a few episodes before, "Snow knows Winterfell better than any of us." Jon will have a plan that isn't going against the Bolton, Karstark and Umber forces head on. Sansa is still a Summer Child of the South. Look at the way Jon winced when Sansa spoke to Glover as if she was parroting Cersei. 

[Future Null Infinity]

3 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

It's a shame that the only way the show can find to prop up Sansa and make her empowered is to make Jon stupid.  Too stupid to lead an army or rule the North.  

it's not Jon's stupidity, it's the principal feature of the starks from day 1 : they always agree to disagree between themselves, and each one of them will do whatever he wants without consulting any other member of the family, you can see it in sansa in season one, in Robb+Catelyn duo, in sansa+jon this season......

[Smoke317]

2 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

It's a shame that the only way the show can find to prop up Sansa and make her empowered is to make Jon stupid.  Too stupid to lead an army or rule the North.  

This...  They should have kept Sansa in the Vale so that we could have seen Jon's continued growth as a leader...  They sure don't have a problem giving Dany all of the power speeches and big moments.  Jon has shown no passion...  He needs his little sister Arya back. Then it'll be a Time for Wolves.

[Future Null Infinity]

18 minutes ago, ViserionsFire said:

That is not the case with Jon or the Wildlings, who are fighting for more than to recover past glory. As Karstark told Ramsey a few episodes before, "Snow knows Winterfell better than any of us." Jon will have a plan that isn't going against the Bolton, Karstark and Umber forces head on

You think that Jon will go with some black ops stuff or some CIA infiltration and sabotage from the interior against the boltons? it's not what is shown in the trailers or in the photos, they are going full collision with boltons with an army of wildlings that don't have armours or shields, Ramsay will pass through them with his sword like carving a cake

[ViserionsFire]

The show writers didn't have Karstark say that Jon knew Winterfell better than any of us for no ... reason

[Ice Spider]

10 minutes ago, Future Null Infinity said:

You think that Jon will go with some black ops stuff or some CIA infiltration and sabotage from the interior against the boltons? it's not what is shown in the trailers or in the photos, they are going full collision with boltons with an army of wildlings that don't have armours or shields, Ramsay will pass through them with his sword like carving a cake

Ramsay, when faced with a nearly identical Army lead by Stannis, elected to go on the offensive and not wait for the attack to come to Wintefell. Why is it this time he chooses to stay behind the walls of Winterfell?

[Future Null Infinity]

5 minutes ago, Ice Spider said:

Ramsay, when faced with a nearly identical Army lead by Stannis, elected to go on the offensive and not wait for the attack to come to Wintefell. Why is it this time he chooses to stay behind the walls of Winterfell?

At first, Ramsay decided to stay in Winterfell and prepare for the siege because Stannis have an equal army, but then when the half or the army deserted Stannis, Ramsay decided to attack because he was sure of his victory, now with Jon, he have an even bigger army and he will get the exact number of their soldiers (Glover will tell him or whatever), he will attack Jon without hesitation  

[Juggzy]

21 hours ago, tugela said:

And as Sansa pointed out to him, his new brother would have the title because, legitimization or not, a trueborn son always comes before a bastard. That is why Ramsey killed them. The child was murdered because of Sansa's comments to Ramsey.

Spoiler

With Rickon dead and Bran also presumed dead, or at least missing, doesn't this leave Sansa, as the eldest of two daughters, the heir to Winterfell?  Therefore she can, presumably, legitimise Jon, thereby making him the heir.  That's the trick I expect to see, anyway. 

 

[Juggzy]

21 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

Yes, you are right about that, please, is Jon and Meera being twins a good theory and have some evidences in the books?

Some say not.  The evidence is this in the books: They are born in the same year, and Howland Reed was with Ned in the battles and at the Tower of Joy.  Meera looks a little like Arya who looks a little like Lyanna.  In the show it is clear that they have been styled to look the same. It would be like Martin to make one theory obvious - R + L = J and then put a twist on it e.g. + M for which there is evidence, nothing to negate it, and would be perfectly obvious after it is revealed.  The people who disagree with this usually tell the people who espouse it to stop talking nonsense. 

[Future Null Infinity]

2 hours ago, Juggzy said:

Some say not.  The evidence is this in the books: They are born in the same year, and Howland Reed was with Ned in the battles and at the Tower of Joy.  Meera looks a little like Arya who looks a little like Lyanna.  In the show it is clear that they have been styled to look the same. It would be like Martin to make one theory obvious - R + L = J and then put a twist on it e.g. + M for which there is evidence, nothing to negate it, and would be perfectly obvious after it is revealed.  The people who disagree with this usually tell the people who espouse it to stop talking nonsense. 

Thank you for the answer 

[JonisHenryTudor]

3 hours ago, Juggzy said:

Some say not.  The evidence is this in the books: They are born in the same year, and Howland Reed was with Ned in the battles and at the Tower of Joy.  Meera looks a little like Arya who looks a little like Lyanna.  In the show it is clear that they have been styled to look the same. It would be like Martin to make one theory obvious - R + L = J and then put a twist on it e.g. + M for which there is evidence, nothing to negate it, and would be perfectly obvious after it is revealed.  The people who disagree with this usually tell the people who espouse it to stop talking nonsense. 

But the problem is that it is not that obvious. It only seems obvious now because people have been discussing it for almost 2 decades. 

[tmug]

17 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

she did the right thing, you don't want her to welcome LF with open arms and say to him "I'am so happy to see you, thank you for giving me to a rapist, can you lend me your army? I need it to save my brother and home", it's totally illogical, she didn't want to see him ever again, she was certain that the north will do the job because 'the north remembers' 

Well look at her position now. It turns out that the North only remembers when its convenient for them. Now she is that same position where she is being forced to welcome LF with open arms, only now she has no northerners on her side. In hindsight, its obvious she made a mistake playing this round. Will LF end up saving the day? probably. Bad news now is that LF is now more of a hero role. Now he will be owed something. She should have demanded his army at Molestown  as his apology and restitution for what happened to her. Or just had Brienne kill him and plead to Robin as we know he was already willing to help. 

She still could have been callous and threatening to LF, just make sure to get the Vale support. Glover was ready to join, Davos was right no one wants to join a losing cause. Jon tells Glover, Manderly, and Cerwyn they have the Vale on their side, I dont see why they wouldnt want to join to fight the Boltons.

[tugela]

14 hours ago, Nymeria Pao said:

Has anyone pointed out the fact that King Robb legitimized Jon and made him his heir?  Jon has been Jon Stark for the past 3 seasons, he just didn't know.  I think who ever has that decree will give it to him after the battle and he will be crowned KotN. 

That was only because Robb thought that Bran and Rickon were dead, but they are not. If either of those show up they would have a superior claim to the title, irrespective of what Robb proclaimed.

[tugela]

10 hours ago, Juggzy said:

  Hide contents

With Rickon dead and Bran also presumed dead, or at least missing, doesn't this leave Sansa, as the eldest of two daughters, the heir to Winterfell?  Therefore she can, presumably, legitimise Jon, thereby making him the heir.  That's the trick I expect to see, anyway. 

 

She can't legitimize him though. The title would pass to her, and whoever she married would become the lord protector (effectively the lord of Winterfell) until one of their children took the title. This is the reason Ramsey married Sansa on the show, and Jeyne (fake Arya) in the book. It was so that he would legitimately become the lord of Winterfell without it being imposed by the crown (something neighboring lords might not recognize, which would likely lead to a lot of strife as people squabbled over land ownership).

[tugela]

On ‎6‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 1:13 PM, Future Null Infinity said:

yes, the rag-tag army of Jon and Sansa  the boltons-karstarks-Umbers alliance have 10000+ soldiers and people like Glover always sides the strongest, he was right to tell them to piss off, he was afraid of the wrath or Ramsay and starks are in their lowest point now

The Boltons have around 5000 men at Winterfell. The Starks have ~2000 wildlings and ~500 men from northern houses. That is a 2:1 ratio, which is quite feasible for a victory provided that Jon does not do something tactically stupid, such as just charge.

Apparently at least some of the Bolton allies will switch sides, and that will make things a lot more even.

Ramsey is the one who is more likely to do something tactically stupid. Then his superior numbers will not help him.

Also, Stannis had ~1500 men, half of who are probably still lurking around somewhere since they are the ones who deserted him when he burnt his kid.

[tugela]

On ‎6‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 8:33 PM, tmug said:

The biggest clue Lord Glover gives off is how he was VERY intrigued after Jon informed him House Mormont joined him. The way Lord Glover reacted was so hopeful to hear Jon rallied more houses to his cause in how he replied with "...and?" 

If Jon could have said he had the Knights of the Vale 40,000 strong, no doubt in my mind that House Glover and the rest of the houses would follow. This makes Sansa's initial decision so much more damaging at this point to the Stark cause.

The fact that team Stark has wildlings with them could have easily been talked down by Davos like he did with Lady Mormont, "The Dead are Coming" it doesn't matter who's who anymore.

Lol...no...he replied "And?" because he would be well aware of how weak Mormont was.

[tugela]

20 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

she did the right thing, you don't want her to welcome LF with open arms and say to him "I'am so happy to see you, thank you for giving me to a rapist, can you lend me your army? I need it to save my brother and home", it's totally illogical, she didn't want to see him ever again, she was certain that the north will do the job because 'the north remembers' 

The letter was not clear about who it was being addressed to. And it ends with Lady Sansa Stark, and I don't think she would use that sort of formality with Littlefinger. She may have sent it to Robert instead, knowing that he would be the gallant knight and ride to her rescue. And if Robert commands that it be so, Littlefinger would have no option except do it. She may be doing a sneaky end run around Littlefinger, beating him at his own manipulation game.

[tugela]

17 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

I started this thread because I wanted to give my opinion on this exact matter, you can see it, it's the first comment in this topic, and the first unilateral decision was made by Jon when he wanted to attack the 10000+ soldiers' alliance with their ragtag army, it's a suicide mission and she was there watching when Stannis attacked the boltons with an inferior force and she knows the result (you can see in the scene that she suggested to go and seek house cerwyn for more men but he interrupted her saying that they will attack immediately)

Jon does have a point. His army is a collection of forces at odds with each other (you can see men from various factions squabbling among each other at the encampment), and the risk of being snowed in and starving would be at the back of his mind. Remember, Jon is familiar with fighting in these sorts of conditions, so he can see risks that Sansa would have no idea of.

So he needs to move now, or what he has potentially will dribble away. Victory will depend on what sort of tactics he uses. A frontal assault will fail, so he needs to be sneaky and use the enemies sense of confidence against them to lure them into make a mistake.