Heresy 187

[Black Crow]

OK last one [for now] promise...

The green men and the Isle of Faces will come to the fore in later books.

[Arry'sFleas]

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

and the Watch isn't as old as it pretends

it probably is not. You guys had long discussions about the timeline in the past, right?

here is some simple arithmetics:

998 LCs since start of the watch 8000 years ago = 8 years per LC average.

998-674= 324 LC names missing @ 8 years each = 2600 years.

alternatively, 674 LCs @ 8 y = 5300 years.

Happy to stand corrected.

 

Note this passage from the WIF:

 

Quote

The World of Ice and Fire - Ancient History: The Long Night
How the Long Night came to an end is a matter of legend, as all such matters of the distant past have become..... Thanks to the children, the first men of the Night's Watch banded together and were able to fight—and win—the Battle for the Dawn: the last battle that broke the endless winter and sent the Others fleeing to the icy north. Now, six thousand years later (or eight thousand as True History puts forward), the Wall made to defend the realms of men is still manned by the sworn brothers of the Night's Watch, and neither the Others nor the children have been seen in many centuries.

Maester Yandel, author of the WIF, says 6k years, True History 8k years (Westeros wiki: The True History is a text of the history of Westeros, presumably written by maesters).

Assuming that the author is not adjusting the time line 10 odd years later (from GoT to FfC), if mr Yandel is correct, one can assume that the NW board of control has lengthened their tenure by 2k year. Who would benefit from this?

 

 

[Tucu]

Removing 2000 years from the timeline puts the Long Night/WW arrival at the time of the Andal Invasion (unless the Andal invasion is also moved). Curiously a storyboard from the show refers to the first WW as an Andal. Not sure what would be the relevance of this.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

1 hour ago, Arry'sFleas said:

it probably is not. You guys had long discussions about the timeline in the past, right?

here is some simple arithmetics:

998 LCs since start of the watch 8000 years ago = 8 years per LC average.

998-674= 324 LC names missing @ 8 years each = 2600 years.

alternatively, 674 LCs @ 8 y = 5300 years.

Happy to stand corrected.

 

674 @ 8 = 5,392

One might surmise that, at the time Sam's list was recorded, the NW fancied itself on the verge of selecting its 675th Lord Commander.  And assuming the average 8 year term, he'd have taken the NW to its 5400 year anniversary celebration.

These days, we are told the NW is 8000 years old. 

Intriguingly, 5400/8000 = 0.675

[wolfmaid7]

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

And spinning off on a tangent I also came across this comment in the same interview, which I've not come across before:

The hardest characters are Jon and Dany — in part because they are so removed from the main action, and in part because their chapters have the heaviest "magic quotient." As I have said in other interviews, the magic needs to be handled very carefully.

Jon, not Bran, Jon...

This is indeed very interesting.....As of today Bran's chapters i say far exceede Jon when it comes to magic.Even Dany's chapters have more.Though i must say the magic involved in theirs have been "high magic" the ones where its so n your face you can't miss it. However,what catches me is the "handled very carefully" phrase which could indicate that the magic quotient is there but low key.

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

OK last one [for now] promise...

The green men and the Isle of Faces will come to the fore in later books.

Makes you wonder if Martin can really wrap all this up in two books? They must be monolithic!!!! We got a tease about them but as i said before ,there's no way those guys are "hanging twenty" while all this goes down.If they aren't involved they are going to be in a big way.

[Phillip Frye]

10 hours ago, JNR said:

Too true.  Worse, for me, is that the samples don't suggest an accelerating plot, which is absolutely necessary if GRRM is going to finish in two books... which in turn may be necessary if the series is going to finish at all.

I've never worried about plot acceleration.  I don't think that the books will ever be finished although I suspect that Martin will finish the second book of his "trilogy" after the publication of book 8.  From his original outline, he is just beginning the second book.

Remember, Daenerys will have to travel back to Vaes Dothrak, sample Dothraki cuisine and culture, travel back to Slaver's Bay and eat some insects on a stick, then go to Volantis, and then probably Pentos, assuming that she doesn't stop in Valyria as well.  Then, she will join with her destined husband, Euron Greyjoy, sail to Westeros, and only then begin her time of misrule with him.

We're a long way from accelerating the plot.

I also really wouldn't have a problem with filler chapters, such as Arianne I and II and Barristan I, if they were slammed out in a couple of weeks each.  I don't get the impression that this is what is happening, though.

[Black Crow]

10 hours ago, Arry'sFleas said:

it probably is not. You guys had long discussions about the timeline in the past, right?

here is some simple arithmetics:

998 LCs since start of the watch 8000 years ago = 8 years per LC average.

998-674= 324 LC names missing @ 8 years each = 2600 years.

alternatively, 674 LCs @ 8 y = 5300 years.

Happy to stand corrected.

 

Note this passage from the WIF:

 

Maester Yandel, author of the WIF, says 6k years, True History 8k years (Westeros wiki: The True History is a text of the history of Westeros, presumably written by maesters).

Assuming that the author is not adjusting the time line 10 odd years later (from GoT to FfC), if mr Yandel is correct, one can assume that the NW board of control has lengthened their tenure by 2k year. Who would benefit from this?

 

 

We'll be revisiting the timeline issues as part of the bicentennial project, although I will say at this point that some of the issues raised anent the dodgy timelines are raised in text. Its not just Maester Yandel [and of curse Sam] but we also have Hoster Blackwood and Rodrik the Reader questioning them.

Family tradition brings the Andals to the Vale 6,000 years ago while histories normally give 4,000 years ago for the coming of the Andals. The first would coincide with the reputed building of the Wall, except its most likely a "we were here first" argument amongst other Andal family historians. Hoster Blackwood however says 

Only no one knows when the Andals crossed the narrow sea. The True History says four thousand years have passed since then, but some masters claim that it was only two. Past a certain point, all the dates grow hazy and confused, and the clarity of history becomes the fog of legend.

The last remark is unquestionably true, but interestingly Rodrik the Reader does provide clarity in a fairly convoluted conversation with Asha Greyjoy when he references the last Kingsmoot in the context of the Andals coming only 1,500 years ago!

I don't want to get too deep into this given that we'll be revisiting the timelines properly in a few weeks as part of the project, but it obviously has implications in relating events in Westeros to what's happening [and seemingly better recorded as happening] out east where dragons fly.

As to the problems with the Watch and its improbably number of Lord Commanders, its also bearing in mind the fact that with the possible exception of the Night Fort [the Black Gate is as old as the Wall but that's not necessarily true of the Fort] none of the castles are as old as they ought to be.

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, Phillip Frye said:

I've never worried about plot acceleration.  I don't think that the books will ever be finished although I suspect that Martin will finish the second book of his "trilogy" after the publication of book 8.  From his original outline, he is just beginning the second book.

Remember, Daenerys will have to travel back to Vaes Dothrak, sample Dothraki cuisine and culture, travel back to Slaver's Bay and eat some insects on a stick, then go to Volantis, and then probably Pentos, assuming that she doesn't stop in Valyria as well.  Then, she will join with her destined husband, Euron Greyjoy, sail to Westeros, and only then begin her time of misrule with him.

We're a long way from accelerating the plot.

I also really wouldn't have a problem with filler chapters, such as Arianne I and II and Barristan I, if they were slammed out in a couple of weeks each.  I don't get the impression that this is what is happening, though.

GRRM has been writing this for over 20 years and while its a beloved child its also become a bit of a monster and I can easily see a dramatic shortening of what's to come with the old joke about the Others saving Westeros from the Dragons becoming reality as Danaerys the Dragonlord arrives in Westeros with her beasties and her Dothraki Horde only for the forces of Ice to pitch into them in a battle of mutual annilihation, while our lot stand on the side cheering them on. 

[LordImp]

What if ice and fire clash in a massive battle and then a giant volcano erruption or a new hammer of the waters kills both WW and dragons.

[Black Crow]

A little bit too dramatic I fear. In truth GRRM has said that no gods will walk on Westeros green and pleasant land so that I think all of this is going to be resolved one way or other by our human characters without any deus ex machina interventions

[Tucu]

I expect a few assasinations and marriages to settle a peace post armageddon

“You’ll be sewing all through winter. When the spring thaw comes, they will find your body with a needle still locked tight between your frozen fingers.”

[LordImp]

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

I expect a few assasinations and marriages to settle a peace post armageddon

“You’ll be sewing all through winter. When the spring thaw comes, they will find your body with a needle still locked tight between your frozen fingers.”

Jon and Dany?

[Black Crow]

12 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Jon and Dany?

Nah,

That's one I don't see. I'm still inclined to go with the original synopsis, albeit with Sansa substituting for Arya. While Jon and Danaerys seem to share similar arcs reinforcing the contrast between Ice and Fire that I will see as their coming together on different sides of the battlefield and if only one is to die I'll go for Danaerys. Jon appears to be concerned with bringing people together. He isn't a tyrant.

[Matthew.]

28 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Jon and Dany?

As a marriage? If Dany claims the IT and isn't dead by the end of the series, it's actually not as unlikely as it might seem--no romance, but it makes sense as a political marriage if Robb has legitimized Jon and named him his heir. Under those circumstances, the only Westerosi bachelor who brings more to the table is Willas Tyrell.

I'm also keeping in mind the whole "Bride of Fire" segment of Dany's visions in the HoTU--which, in the aftermath of the Aeron WoW chapter, increasingly looks like these were visions about Drogo, then Euron, then Jon. One marriage alliance delivers dragons and an army, another delivers passage to the west, the final (speculatively) delivers a reunified realm.

[Matthew.]

10 hours ago, Phillip Frye said:

I've never worried about plot acceleration.  I don't think that the books will ever be finished although I suspect that Martin will finish the second book of his "trilogy" after the publication of book 8.  From his original outline, he is just beginning the second book.

The original structure he intended is almost certainly out the window, which is fine; I can't imagine a book that's just purely about Dany murdering everything in her path with dragons, followed by another book that's 1000+ pages of just fighting Others.

It seems increasingly likely that Dany's invasion and the return of the Others will be concurrent, and both events will intertwine with the ongoing political stories, so that they might all resolve at once.

If he paces the plot progress of ADOS like ACOK, it's possible to wrap everything up in two more books...granted, that's a big if though, and contingent upon GRRM reigning himself in, or his editor growing a spine.

[Black Crow]

12 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

The original structure he intended is almost certainly out the window, which is fine; I can't imagine a book that's just purely about Dany murdering everything in her path with dragons, followed by another book that's 1000+ pages of just fighting Others.

It seems increasingly likely that Dany's invasion and the return of the Others will be concurrent, and both events will intertwine with the ongoing political stories, so that they might all resolve at once.

If he paces the plot progress of ADOS like ACOK, it's possible to wrap everything up in two more books...granted, that's a big if though, and contingent upon GRRM reigning himself in, or his editor growing a spine.

I've argued above that if they are concurrent GRRM can wrap it up in two books; while they are obviously different that looks like the current pacing of the mummers' version. The real question is GRRM himself. After 20-odd years is he getting tired of writing this story and does he want to wrap it up in two, which I reckon he can do. Or, is it simply the case that he doesn't want to let go? Obviously once its completed he can turn to spin-offs such as that threatened book about the Targaryens, but it isn't going to be the same.

It could indeed come down to editor and publisher being firm with him - but do they have an incentive?

[Tucu]

1 hour ago, LordImp said:

Jon and Dany?

As marriage, no; as targets for assasinations, yes.

[Black Crow]

26 minutes ago, Tucu said:

As marriage, no; as targets for assasinations, yes.

Jon slaying Dany is a strong possibility.

[JNR]

23 hours ago, Black Crow said:

There we have the problem in that in proclaiming Jon as the 998th Lord Commander, the current list presumably doesn't have 997 names on it.

If so, it's certainly surprising Sam never says any such thing.

He never says something obvious like: "We say that you're the 998th Lord Commander, but the most recent complete list of LCs only shows 700 Lord Commanders."

What he does say is this:

we say that you're the nine-hundred-and-ninety-eighth Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, but the oldest list I've found shows six hundred seventy-four commanders, which suggests that it was written during --

Now... in the case of the above quote, notice that he might just look at the last name on the list and know, without having to worry about calculating, when it was written. 

Just as we might look at the last name on a list of American presidents, see that it's Andrew Jackson, and know when that list was written -- no later than 1837.

But Sam can't.  He can't because he's either never even heard of this last LC, or if he has, it's some vague mythical reference with no reliable connection to history.

In fact, we can see that that's true for the whole list.  All of the 674 names on the oldest list are this way, because if he had even one name he trusted, as linked to a particular time, say the 600th name, he would surely mention that.  He would then try to assess the list's age using that trusted basis.

But he doesn't have even one such name. 

So what does this mean?  Well, maybe it means the whole list is just BS.  Some Night's Watchman got drunk and made up hundreds of names on a list for no apparent reason.  But it could also mean the list really is incredibly old... so old as to escape any historical frame of reference available to Sam.

So while I agree with you that the list is not of a certain age, and that there's no way to know how many names have been lost or how old precisely the Watch is, I can't jump to the premise you usually do: that the Watch is "pretending to be much older than it is."  That "the timeline is mince."

And only by dismissing the entire list of 674 LCs as worthless could I possibly think that it suggested a Watch, or a Long Night, as recent as 1500 years old (per another Heretical suggestion).  That many LCs in so short a time  (if we add all the more recent names) would mean an average tenure of somewhat more than one year per LC. 

Do LCs really come and go every year?  They definitely don't of late, that's for sure.

[JNR]

13 hours ago, Phillip Frye said:

I've never worried about plot acceleration.  I don't think that the books will ever be finished

It's because of the second clause that the first concerns me.  Somebody needs to get GRRM to track his wordcount, and write more concisely.  If something as insignificant overall to this tale of Westeros as the Battle of Meereen is taking multiple chapters, something's gone badly wrong.

And I agree with everyone who says Jon and Dany will never happen.  God willing, not a single word will be wasted on that.