Rationale for attacking Winterfell

[JazzyButterfly]

I don't understand the rationale for attacking Winterfell. It's a castle all Ramsay has to do is stay inside. What are the Stark & Co going to do? They can't get in. Wouldn't it be better to wait for Ramsay to come to them? I know they need to save Rickon but the fact is that they can't save Rickon. If Ramsay decides to kill him or torture him there is nothing that can be done about it. Attacking Winterfell with 2000 wildlings who have no armor and a few hundred northern houses is suicide. Why would Jon go on a suicide mission. This makes no sense to me. But I know that it is to create the pressure on Sansa to call in LF so to me Jon's decision is plot driven. 

[valirpaz]

Agreed.

[The Bastard Dayne]

How long can they afford to wait? The women and children of the Wildlings are settled on the gift. They can't stay there, because there aren't enough men to stop the WW at the Wall, and they don't have the supplies for all of the Wildlings to just stay at Castle Black. And the Wall can't get any more men or supplies with the Boltons, Karstarks, and Umbers controlling the North.

If the Wildlings did manage to somehow supply just their fighting men and placed them at the Wall, then the Bolton forces would slaughter their women and children if they come north to attack Castle Black, and if they try to just flee south w/o taking Winterfell, then the Bolton forces could hit them on the march with women and children in tow ( which is tactical suicide ).

No, I agree with Jon's decision here. Winterfell has to be taken.

[Green Knight]

1 hour ago, The Bastard Dayne said:

How long can they afford to wait? The women and children of the Wildlings are settled on the gift. They can't stay there, because there aren't enough men to stop the WW at the Wall, and they don't have the supplies for all of the Wildlings to just stay at Castle Black. And the Wall can't get any more men or supplies with the Boltons, Karstarks, and Umbers controlling the North.

If the Wildlings did manage to somehow supply just their fighting men and placed them at the Wall, then the Bolton forces would slaughter their women and children if they come north to attack Castle Black, and if they try to just flee south w/o taking Winterfell, then the Bolton forces could hit them on the march with women and children in tow ( which is tactical suicide ).

No, I agree with Jon's decision here. Winterfell has to be taken.

And how would they do that? 

[The Bastard Dayne]

1 minute ago, Green Knight said:

And how would they do that? 

By hoping they can goad the defenders into an all out attack.

It's desperate. But they are in a desperate situation. Hoping against hope that they can draw the Bolton forces out and win a battle on the field is their only option at this point.

If they lose; They die. If they ignore Winterfell; They die.

I've already outlined why.

Jon and co know what's coming. Control of a unified North is the first step of their only hope of survival

 

[Survivor92]

The problem is that, thanks to D&D's writing, Jon & co will have read the script and know what's coming. So they'll blindly attack Winterfell and when everything seems totally lost, the Vale's cavalry will ride in to save the day. 

Yes, a case can be made for Jon and the Wildlings having little time and no choice but to attack Winterfell. But without the Vale as a convenient plot device, we could've had different plots. Why not sneak into Winterfell through a secret entrance, that only Jon and Sansa know of? Why not try to lure them out? They could divide their forces (like Jaime did at the Whispering Woods), making Ramsay think that he can easily grab Sansa. Then sneak into Winterfell while Ramsay's cavalry is charging. If Jon is gonna take over Stannis' role from the books anyway, why not give us the same battle? Make Jon camp on an icy lake and use WunWun and prepared traps to break the ice. Then ambush the Boltons. This way, a small force can defeat the larger Bolton force and it makes sense for why Jon is so eager to attack (because he had this plan all along). If you want the Vale army to save the day, then let the Umbers avoid the trap, overwhelm Jon's army and then the Vale army comes in to save the day.

[Nerevanin]

Ramsay would be stupid af if he left Winterfell to face them in a battlefield. Especially when the Vale army joins Jon&co.. But some of the characters haven't been acting much rationally this season so...

The only reason Ramsay could possibly have to leave Winterfell would be that Ramsay would think that he would  100% win against Jon's 2000 wildlings and he would want to smash Jon&co like flies, and to demostrate his power he would face them outside of WF. Then out of nowhere the Vale army would come and Ramsay's smile freezes on his face.

[Green Knight]

6 minutes ago, Survivor92 said:

The problem is that, thanks to D&D's writing, Jon & co will have read the script and know what's coming. So they'll blindly attack Winterfell and when everything seems totally lost, the Vale's cavalry will ride in to save the day. 

Yes, a case can be made for Jon and the Wildlings having little time and no choice but to attack Winterfell. But without the Vale as a convenient plot device, we could've had different plots. Why not sneak into Winterfell through a secret entrance, that only Jon and Sansa know of? Why not try to lure them out? They could divide their forces (like Jaime did at the Whispering Woods), making Ramsay think that he can easily grab Sansa. Then sneak into Winterfell while Ramsay's cavalry is charging. If Jon is gonna take over Stannis' role from the books anyway, why not give us the same battle? Make Jon camp on an icy lake and use WunWun and prepared traps to break the ice. Then ambush the Boltons. This way, a small force can defeat the larger Bolton force and it makes sense for why Jon is so eager to attack (because he had this plan all along). If you want the Vale army to save the day, then let the Umbers avoid the trap, overwhelm Jon's army and then the Vale army comes in to save the day.

I like it. That I could live with. Having some sort of secret knowledge that only a Stark would know about Winterfell or the surrounding area that helps them their attack would be a pretty cool plot device and at least make a little more sense.

Having Jon come up with a bold, ingenious strategy as Rob did so many times during the wars, that maximizes his assets while hurting the opposing side would be another. That would further legitimize Jon as a competent field commander and bolster him as the true and rightful King in the eyes of northerners.

Simply marching blindly to Winterfell with 2000 wildlings is so wrong and stupid on so many levels that I don't think I even need to waste the time it takes to explain why. . . 

[The Bastard Dayne]

43 minutes ago, Nerevanin said:

Ramsay would be stupid af if he left Winterfell to face them in a battlefield. Especially when the Vale army joins Jon&co.. But some of the characters haven't been acting much rationally this season so...

The only reason Ramsay could possibly have to leave Winterfell would be that Ramsay would think that he would  100% win against Jon's 2000 wildlings and he would want to smash Jon&co like flies, and to demostrate his power he would face them outside of WF. Then out of nowhere the Vale army would come and Ramsay's smile freezes on his face.

No one knows about the Vale army. Without them, Ramsay's forces outnumber Jon and co like 6 to 1.

Given that, your second paragraph is looking pretty likely, isn't it?

24 minutes ago, Green Knight said:

Simply marching blindly to Winterfell with 2000 wildlings is so wrong and stupid on so many levels that I don't think I even need to waste the time it takes to explain why. . . 

Then perhaps you'd care to explain what they should do, given that I've already explained why ignoring WF/trying to bypass WF just isn't an option.

[The Bastard Dayne]

I'll add here, that I'm in NO way trying to justify DnD's horrible handling of the whole North storyline here, I'm just saying that with the narrative we've been given, Jon and co have no choice but to fight this battle.

[Snowisnobastard]

While I agree that D&D's writing can be horribly clumsy sometimes (and even worse other times *sandsnakes*) Jon and co. can easily breach the gate, they have a Wun Wun. He'll have no trouble booting another giant door down, if it comes to that. Jon is running out of time, he knows he needs to act, if the hearts and words of the Northerners are true, they will act with him when the time comes.

[Green Knight]

42 minutes ago, The Bastard Dayne said:

No one knows about the Vale army. Without them, Ramsay's forces outnumber Jon and co like 6 to 1.

Given that, your second paragraph is looking pretty likely, isn't it?

Then perhaps you'd care to explain what they should do, given that I've already explained why ignoring WF/trying to bypass WF just isn't an option.

You've clearly made up your mind that attacking Winterfell with an inadequate force is the only option. It's not. There are many other options, all of them have their downsides. However, the greatest downside to your option is that it would basically be committing suicide. Getting himself and his meager army killed  won't help anyone, least of all Rickon so to me it is not an option. 

At any rate I'll not argue with you that attacking Winterfell with 2000 wildlings is a stupid idea so lets just agree to disagree. . . 

[Darksky]

You forget characters are humans, they are ruled by emotions. They're not calculating robots ('Rickon has about 5% chance of surviving so it's no use trying'). Jon has not given up on Rickon like you clearly have. It'd be harder for him since he has a connection to Rickon, unlike you.

They also cannot wait. There are many factors that work against them. Deteriorating weather, running out of supplies, WWs coming, the possibility of Ramsay suddenly attacking them. The Northern Lords don't want to commit so what is Jon to do? Give up and run away to Essos? Because as long as Ramsay rules the North, they won't have a semblance of a safe life there. Both Sansa and Jon have said as much. And Ramsay's letter made it very clear too.

They have Wun Wun. It'd be easy to breach the gate (don't want to mention spoilers so I'll leave it at that) and storm the castle. He has already knocked down one gate this season.

For Ramsay to stay inside is risky for that reason. Also who knows how many supplies he has (Blackfish has enough for two years) to wait out a siege. The best defense is a good offense. Ramsay is cocky and confident. He is still riding on his victory against Stannis. He has gotten more troops from Karstarks and Umbers since then. He knows he outnumbers Jon's forces. He knows nothing of the Vale. He is a madman who hates the Starks. With all that knowledge, it's a no brainer he'd go out and engage in an open battle. The odds are in his favour.

Hubris has proven detrimental to many in real life as well as fiction since like ever. Ramsay will be yet another victim of it.

[Good Guy Garlan]

1 hour ago, Survivor92 said:

The problem is that, thanks to D&D's writing, Jon & co will have read the script and know what's coming. So they'll blindly attack Winterfell and when everything seems totally lost, the Vale's cavalry will ride in to save the day. 

But that's exactly what Jon was going to do in the books before Marsh gutted him.

1 hour ago, Survivor92 said:

Yes, a case can be made for Jon and the Wildlings having little time and no choice but to attack Winterfell. But without the Vale as a convenient plot device, we could've had different plots. Why not sneak into Winterfell through a secret entrance, that only Jon and Sansa know of? Why not try to lure them out? They could divide their forces (like Jaime did at the Whispering Woods), making Ramsay think that he can easily grab Sansa. Then sneak into Winterfell while Ramsay's cavalry is charging. If Jon is gonna take over Stannis' role from the books anyway, why not give us the same battle? Make Jon camp on an icy lake and use WunWun and prepared traps to break the ice. Then ambush the Boltons. This way, a small force can defeat the larger Bolton force and it makes sense for why Jon is so eager to attack (because he had this plan all along). If you want the Vale army to save the day, then let the Umbers avoid the trap, overwhelm Jon's army and then the Vale army comes in to save the day.

The battle no one has read yet? That battle? We don't even know if there was a battle, let alone how it turned out. I wouldn't treat fan theories as canon. 

[Darksky]

1 minute ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

But that's exactly what Jon was going to do in the books before Marsh gutted him.

The battle no one has read yet? That battle? We don't even know if there was a battle, let alone how it turned out. I wouldn't treat fan theories as canon. 

shhh when canon gets in the way of ranting it's usually ignored. don't mention it.

[The Bastard Dayne]

37 minutes ago, Green Knight said:

You've clearly made up your mind that attacking Winterfell with an inadequate force is the only option. It's not. There are many other options, all of them have their downsides. However, the greatest downside to your option is that it would basically be committing suicide. Getting himself and his meager army killed  won't help anyone, least of all Rickon so to me it is not an option. 

At any rate I'll not argue with you that attacking Winterfell with 2000 wildlings is a stupid idea so lets just agree to disagree. . . 

Like I said; I'd love to see these other options. No one has provided one. Leading Ramsay's men into a trap using terrain is the only one I've seen, and it would still require drawing Ramsay's forces out to work. Otherwise they freeze/starve just like Stannis' men were doing, or are overrun by the WW .

Yes; I have come to the conclusion that attacking WF is the only option. I've outlined why.

Is it a desperate/incredibly stupid tactically move? Yep. Are they just as dead ( or worse ) if they don't? Yep.

 

 

17 minutes ago, Darksky said:

You forget characters are humans, they are ruled by emotions. Jon has not given up on Rickon like you clearly have. It'd be harder for him since he has a connection to Rickon, unlike you.

They also cannot wait. There are many factors that work against them. Deteriorating weather, running out of supplies, WWs coming, the possibility of Ramsay suddenly attacking them. The Northern Lords don't want to commit so what is Jon to do? Give up and run away to Essos?

They have Wun Wun. It'd be easy to breach the gate (don't want to mention spoilers so I'll leave it at that) and storm the castle. He has already knocked down one gate this season.

For Ramsay to stay inside is risky for that reason. Also who knows how many supplies he has (Blackfish has enough for two years) to wait out a siege. The best defense is a good offense. Ramsay is cocky and confident. He is still riding on his victory against Stannis. He has gotten more troops from Karstarks and Umbers since then. He knows he outnumbers Jon's forces. He knows nothing of the Vale. He is a madman who hates the Starks. With all that knowledge, it's a no brainer he'd go out and engage in an open battle. The odds are in his favour.

You've summed it up nicely.

[Nerevanin]

1 hour ago, The Bastard Dayne said:

No one knows about the Vale army. Without them, Ramsay's forces outnumber Jon and co like 6 to 1.

That's true. But if the Vale was to join Jon in advance of the battle and not at the last second, would it be possible for them to ride all the way to approximately Winterfell without being noticed? I expect Ramsay to have scouts and I suppose that the North isn't completely deserted. Some would surely notice an army of, what, 20k men?

And if Ramsay knew about them, I don't expect him to be that stupid to ride to meet them. So, as I said in my previous post, I suppose that Ramsay doesn't know about them when he rides to fight Jon and that the Vale army would join the battle in the last minute.

[The Bastard Dayne]

42 minutes ago, Nerevanin said:

That's true. But if the Vale was to join Jon in advance of the battle and not at the last second, would it be possible for them to ride all the way to approximately Winterfell without being noticed? I expect Ramsay to have scouts and I suppose that the North isn't completely deserted. Some would surely notice an army of, what, 20k men?

And if Ramsay knew about them, I don't expect him to be that stupid to ride to meet them. So, as I said in my previous post, I suppose that Ramsay doesn't know about them when he rides to fight Jon and that the Vale army would join the battle in the last minute.

Oh I agree.

Ramsay won't know about the Vale forces when he rides out to meet Jon, which is stupid writing.

But it is what it is with those we have at the helm.

[Green Knight]

Sansa could easily tell Jon about the Vale. He could accept their support and they could then plan a coordinated attack. Makes a hell of a lot more sense than walking into heavy traffic wearing a blindfold which is the equivalent of attacking Winterfell with 2000 wildlings. . . 

[watcher of the night]

8 hours ago, The Bastard Dayne said:

How long can they afford to wait? The women and children of the Wildlings are settled on the gift. They can't stay there, because there aren't enough men to stop the WW at the Wall, and they don't have the supplies for all of the Wildlings to just stay at Castle Black. And the Wall can't get any more men or supplies with the Boltons, Karstarks, and Umbers controlling the North.

If the Wildlings did manage to somehow supply just their fighting men and placed them at the Wall, then the Bolton forces would slaughter their women and children if they come north to attack Castle Black, and if they try to just flee south w/o taking Winterfell, then the Bolton forces could hit them on the march with women and children in tow ( which is tactical suicide ).

No, I agree with Jon's decision here. Winterfell has to be taken.

You know the north is a bit larger than just winterfell and the gift, look at the map perhaps. There is a forest size of Frnace just North of winterfell, no way Ramsay could find them if they don't want to be found. also the wildlings were perfectly fine nroth of the wall in the frozen tundra, perhaps they will be just as fine south of it.

6 hours ago, The Bastard Dayne said:

By hoping they can goad the defenders into an all out attack.

It's desperate. But they are in a desperate situation. Hoping against hope that they can draw the Bolton forces out and win a battle on the field is their only option at this point.

If they lose; They die. If they ignore Winterfell; They die.

I've already outlined why.

Jon and co know what's coming. Control of a unified North is the first step of their only hope of survival

 

That is just stupid. There is no way Jon can defeat a larger force with ill equipped, ill trained wildlings. Ramsay has a better infantry, better archers, better cavalry and more of everything. Attcking Ramsay is a suicide.

4 hours ago, The Bastard Dayne said:

No one knows about the Vale army. Without them, Ramsay's forces outnumber Jon and co like 6 to 1.

Given that, your second paragraph is looking pretty likely, isn't it?

Then perhaps you'd care to explain what they should do, given that I've already explained why ignoring WF/trying to bypass WF just isn't an option.

Bullshit. how on earth did this Vale army captured Moat Cailin? A feat of amrs that no army did it from the South. Beside how is it that no one realized it? no one f*cking saw that a 10-15k army marching north? Are the northmen blind too? How come no one told this to Ramsay? Bullshit and bullshit. Totally unrealistic and plotdriven.

Again they don't have to "bypass" Winterfell. Please look at the map and observe the distance between Wf and the wall.

They should do what others suggested: guerilla warfare. Draw out the small bolton groups, isolate and defeat them. Threaten the Last Heart to draw out the Umbers, harass them, isolate small groups defeat them. Try to rally the rest of the North in the meantime. Attack the enemy where it is weak, avoid it where it is strong. 

4 hours ago, The Bastard Dayne said:

I'll add here, that I'm in NO way trying to justify DnD's horrible handling of the whole North storyline here, I'm just saying that with the narrative we've been given, Jon and co have no choice but to fight this battle.

Bullshit. Jon knows the best that the wildings are unsuitable as mainline troops. He said this to Ygrett and he observed it first hand how Stannis demolished a much larger army of wildlings with his knights. He has other option but since plot twist X has to happen they turned him into a brainded stupid zombi.