UK Politics: The Vote

[The Killer Snark]

54 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

If you vote Remain George Osborne stays one of the most powerful men in the country.

edit: and Tony Blair will be very happy.

And David Cameron as well, and it also gives more leverage to the utterly insane Angela Merkel, totalitarian monster Juncker, and the rest of the pyschos who run the EU

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

5 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

No one can say what the future will be like if we stay.  The EU may collapse with us in it and if it does then we'll be worse off for staying in it.

And it's ridiculous to hold the figureheads as the main reason as to what to vote.  It's not a General Election where you are effectively voting for a PM.  Win or lose, but especially win, Farage disappears.

And those who supported Brexit won't be in power.  Cameron is in power, unfortunately, and will remain so.  Corbyn has had to tow the party line but is clearly anti-EU, but there's practically sod all chance of Corbyn ever becoming PM.

It doesn't matter anyway really.  This vote is an advisory.  There is no way that the powers that be in the UK will let us leave because they have too much personal wealth tied up in the EU.  And even if by some miracle the British politicians did bow down to public support I have little doubt the EU will pass some kind of legislation forbidding members to be able to leave.

You've really lost me now Gareth!

[Chaldanya]

5 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

No one can say what the future will be like if we stay.  The EU may collapse with us in it and if it does then we'll be worse off for staying in it.

And it's ridiculous to hold the figureheads as the main reason as to what to vote.  It's not a General Election where you are effectively voting for a PM.  Win or lose, but especially win, Farage disappears.

And those who supported Brexit won't be in power.  Cameron is in power, unfortunately, and will remain so.  Corbyn has had to tow the party line but is clearly anti-EU, but there's practically sod all chance of Corbyn ever becoming PM.

It doesn't matter anyway really.  This vote is an advisory.  There is no way that the powers that be in the UK will let us leave because they have too much personal wealth tied up in the EU.  And even if by some miracle the British politicians did bow down to public support I have little doubt the EU will pass some kind of legislation forbidding members to be able to leave.

If you think Farage will disappear and Dave Cameron will still be in office should Brexit win, then I want some of what you're having.

N

[mormont]

7 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

No one can say what the future will be like if we stay. 

No. But I think I can say for sure that if we do, Farage is not going to say 'jolly well played everyone!' and meekly retire to private life, perhaps raising sheep in the Cotswolds. He'll still be around.

Even if he isn't, if you prefer that (say) Cameron be done down instead, go ahead and vote Leave and fair play to you. It's not at all ridiculous if you want to decide your vote on that basis. You're essentially making a judgement about what type of future you want for the country. Which is what this is all about, after all.

Cameron has about as much chance as I have of being in charge if there's a Brexit vote.

Quote

It doesn't matter anyway really.  This vote is an advisory.  There is no way that the powers that be in the UK will let us leave because they have too much personal wealth tied up in the EU.  And even if by some miracle the British politicians did bow down to public support I have little doubt the EU will pass some kind of legislation forbidding members to be able to leave.

You may have little doubt that these things will happen, but that doesn't change the fact that they simply won't. 

[Ser Gareth]

1 hour ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

Haha, well to be fair  I was on the fence about it until recently, but that was based on my own laziness  and lack of even looking into it. In general I feel like as flawed as the EU is, and it is flawed, its collapse would be an absolute disaster, not just for us in the UK but also for the entire world. Thats not even taking into account the years of almost certain recession a leave vote will mean for us here, which would affect me personally. 

I've really yet to see much to convince me to leave to be honest.

You should've spoken to me

Economically Europe's had it.  Germany is effectively acting as a loan shark whilst pushing its own industry onto the rest of Europe.  Unemployment is going through the ceiling as is debt.  The UK's trade deficit with Europe is horrific and we can't do a thing about it.  Europe is marching towards federalisation and a single military response force will be next.  You can guarantee both will be controlled by Germany who have lots of the weaker countries in their back pocket for votes after they've bought those votes with bailouts.

And now we have TTIP.  I have no idea what the agenda is on that.  It's basically an open ticket for the USA to bend the EU over and fuck it senseless.  The only logical conclusion I can come up with is that there are people within the EU who know its doomed who now have fat offshore bank accounts and a promise they can relocate to live the rest of their lives out in the States once the EU collapses.

Personally I think the EU will collapse in the next 20 years anyway.  They'll be riots on the streets, maybe even the odd civil war in the more Eastern and Southern nations.  The people of France are waking up they've been taken for a ride.  We've been taken for a ride and it's almost too late regardless of whether we stay in or not.  Italy HAVE bankrupted themselves for the EU cause and if this predicted global recession happens they will go the same way as Greece (as will Spain & Portugal).  And as Germany, UK, France and Italy are basically keeping the whole EU ship afloat?  If one of them pulls out of EU, the whole EU collapses.

[Ser Gareth]

4 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said:

No. But I think I can say for sure that if we do, Farage is not going to say 'jolly well played everyone!' and meekly retire to private life, perhaps raising sheep in the Cotswolds. He'll still be around.

Even if he isn't, if you prefer that (say) Cameron be done down instead, go ahead and vote Leave and fair play to you. It's not at all ridiculous if you want to decide your vote on that basis. You're essentially making a judgement about what type of future you want for the country. Which is what this is all about, after all.

Cameron has about as much chance as I have of being in charge if there's a Brexit vote.

You may have little doubt that these things will happen, but that doesn't change the fact that they simply won't. 

Watch this space.  Norway were warned that they'd be an economic pauper if they didn't join.  Switzerland were warned they'd be an economic pauper if they didn't join.  The UK was warned that if we came out of the ERM it would ruin us.  The UK was warned if we didn't join this all powerful EURO we'd be finished because Sterling wasn't strong enough to survive on its own etc.  None of it came to fruition.

What has come to fruition is that the UK is on the verge of bankruptcy.  And despite this, we're still better off than every other major EU country except Germany.

I have zero doubt in my mind that we won't be allowed to Brexit.  Too much at stake for too many powerful influential people.  The EU has its citizens under its heel and people just can't see it.  Big Government = bad news.  Big corporations = bad news.  Big Government loves Big corporations = bad news.

[Ser Gareth]

9 minutes ago, Chaldanya said:

If you think Farage will disappear and Dave Cameron will still be in office should Brexit win, then I want some of what you're having.

N

Cameron will still be PM regardless.  For all the media's attempting divisionary tactics over the political parties it makes perfect political sense that the main party leaders support the EU, even if they don't genuinely believe it themselves (which Corbyn clearly doesn't).  Why?

Because if the vote is remain these people have to deal with the EU and they need to be seen as being pro-EU to do that.  And if the vote is exit, then these same individuals can garner sympathy from the EU because they didn't publically want to leave.  It's politics 101.

Which is why I am amazed that Boris Johnson stuck his flag to the leave mast.  If we don't leave he has effectively done himself out of being PM unless the EU really does go down the toilets over the next four or five years.  I'd say Boris's decision was akin to political suicide.

But as I said.  The vote isn't binding.  It's advisory.  There is no way that we're leaving the EU regardless of the vote outcome.

[Ser Gareth]

16 minutes ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

You've really lost me now Gareth!

One thing my time on earth has taught me?  People look after themselves.  Even those that run around looking after others do so because it makes themselves feel good.

Take Dyson for example.  Of course he is anti-EU.  The reason?  The EU passed a law that really screwed up the sales of his vacuum cleaners and handed a massively competitive edge to a German rival.  Now if the EU had passed a law that benefitted Dyson and hampered his German rival?  Then he'd be out in the press supporting Remain.

I was all for Europe.  I still am at heart.  But it's been an economic and political disaster.  Too much greed when the union wasn't economically, politically or culturally stable.  The whole foundations of the EU are built on quick sand.

[Chaldanya]

He will be out for the simple reason that he promised the referendum and sold it to his support as being a shoe-in to stay.  He then didn't have the clout/charisma/support to turn that into a leave victory. His own party will have him out on his ear so fast it'll make your head spin.

But, hey ho, it's no skin off my nose if you think otherwise.  I think your other ramblings are tinfoilhattery but Mormie's addressing that stuff so I don't have to

[mormont]

3 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

I have zero doubt in my mind that we won't be allowed to Brexit.  Too much at stake for too many powerful influential people.  The EU has its citizens under its heel and people just can't see it.  Big Government = bad news.  Big corporations = bad news.  Big Government loves Big corporations = bad news.

The big flaw in your theory here is this: if we weren't going to be allowed to leave, why are we being allowed to have a referendum?

The shadowy elites can be forced by support for UKIP to allow a vote, but not to accept the result - backed by what's likely to be in excess of 14 million voters?

[Ser Gareth]

2 minutes ago, Chaldanya said:

He will be out for the simple reason that he promised the referendum and sold it to his support as being a shoe-in to stay.  He then didn't have the clout/charisma/support to turn that into a leave victory. His own party will have him out on his ear so fast it'll make your head spin.

But, hey ho, it's no skin off my nose if you think otherwise.  I think your other ramblings are tinfoilhattery but Mormie's addressing that stuff so I don't have to

It'll be a Remain win.  I still think it will also be a lot more comfortable than the polls have suggested.  Very few polls have taken into consideration the 4M British nationals living abroad that can vote.  Almost all of them that have bothered to vote will look after their own interests.  Which is naturally to remain.  From the voting turn out I am not expecting the Brexit vote to be much more than 40%.

[Altherion]

So is the referendum binding or not? I don't expect Leave to win, but let's suppose that they do. Is there a way for parliament to override the result?

3 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said:

The shadowy elites can be forced by support for UKIP to allow a vote, but not to accept the result - backed by what's likely to be in excess of 14 million voters?

Well, look at what happened in Greece: they held a referendum, received an overwhelming anti-austerity result (much larger than Leave is likely to get even in their wildest dreams) and then proceeded to agree to austerity in any case. And unlike Greece, the UK is prosperous country with no major crisis. If the elites have a way out, they are quite likely to take it. Of course, the reason many of them agreed to the referendum in the first place is that they're confident the status quo will prevail -- and judging by the prediction markets, they're probably right.

[Chaircat Meow]

I do think that sometimes voting a certain way because people you don't like are on the other side makes sense. You may not have an opinion about y, but if everyone in favour of y is also in favour of x and z, and you are against x and z, maybe it is a good idea to vote against y too.

However, there are occasions this make more sense than others. In 2014 there is relatively little doubt that the SNP would have been in government a long time if Scotland had voted to go independent. Now, on the other hand, there is really no prospect of Nigel Farage forming a government or being in the cabinet and UKIP is actually likely to do better, as a party, via a Remain vote.

So I come down on the side that thinks voting Remain because you dislike Farage is daft.

[A wilding]

30 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

And now we have TTIP.  I have no idea what the agenda is on that.  It's basically an open ticket for the USA to bend the EU over and fuck it senseless.  The only logical conclusion I can come up with is that there are people within the EU who know its doomed who now have fat offshore bank accounts and a promise they can relocate to live the rest of their lives out in the States once the EU collapses.

 

Except that considerable resistance in both Germany and France means that TTIP is now looking unlikely, thanks be to the FSM, while everyone in UK politics to the right of Corbyn is desperate to sign up to it and with the minimum of public discussion.

[Ser Gareth]

13 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said:

The big flaw in your theory here is this: if we weren't going to be allowed to leave, why are we being allowed to have a referendum?

The shadowy elites can be forced by support for UKIP to allow a vote, but not to accept the result - backed by what's likely to be in excess of 14 million voters?

Election promise.  To win a large portion of the potential UKIP vote he had to promise a referendum.  He'd already broken that promise from the previous term.  He didn't have the political capital to break it again.

[Ser Gareth]

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I do think that sometimes voting a certain way because people you don't like are on the other side makes sense. You may not have an opinion about y, but if everyone in favour of y is also in favour of x and z, and you are against x and z, maybe it is a good idea to vote against y too.

However, there are occasions this make more sense than others. In 2014 there is relatively little doubt that the SNP would have been in government a long time if Scotland had voted to go independent. Now, on the other hand, there is really no prospect of Nigel Farage forming a government or being in the cabinet and UKIP is actually likely to do better, as a party, via a Remain vote.

So I come down on the side that thinks voting Remain because you dislike Farage is daft.

Absolutely.  And it works in reverse too.  I know someone who wants to stay in the EU but they can't stand Cameron and they love Boris.  So they've voted Brexit.  I told her that the vote has nothing to do with individuals and that she should have voted remain, but what you gonna do?

[Nevarfeather]

5 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

So I come down on the side that thinks voting Remain because you dislike Farage is daft.

only if you underestimate how much i dislike the man ;-)

joking aside, I don't think it's not wrong to form your opinions based on what those you respect are saying
while there's a lot of nonsense on both sides i've also listened to academics, scientists and environmentalists as well as meeting Commission staff and MEP's to get their opinions, then I just fact-checked as much as i could, hopefully that's how others arrive a their choice too rather than voting with a gut instinct of 'build a wall' 

[Ser Gareth]

8 minutes ago, A wilding said:

 

Except that considerable resistance in both Germany and France means that TTIP is now looking unlikely, thanks be to the FSM, while everyone in UK politics to the right of Corbyn is desperate to sign up to it and with the minimum of public discussion.

It's a farce.  Definitely some dodgy hands in the till over it.  It makes no sense to the EU at all.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

You are on the side of Blair too.

And Goldman Sachs.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Nevarfeather said:

Can we just send Farage back into the netherworld from whence he came or something like that
surely he was conjured up for just this day and will disappear in a puff of sulphur at midnight?

The only way you can terminate Nigel Farage's career is to vote Leave.