UK Politics: The Morning After

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Hereward said:

Hard to say. He's not particularly popular in my constituency, but we voted Remain (as I did, you'll probably be surprised to know). He seems to be liked more by supporters than members though, who don't trust him.

Who do you think would be his likely challenger?

[Hereward]

I'm going to put my money on May. Though for an outside bet, Stephen Crabb or Andrea Leadson might be worth a flutter.

[Chaircat Meow]

V. interesting if true. The next time someone claims the old screwed over the young, suggest the young should have actually gone out and voted.

Turnout % of each age group in the #EURefResults:

18-24: 36%

25-34: 58%

35-44: 72%

45-54: 75%

55-64: 81%

65+: 83%

via @SkyData

[Which Tyler]

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

V. interesting if true. The next time someone claims the old screwed over the young, suggest the young should have actually gone out and voted.

As with politicians lying - twas ever thus.

[Sophelia]

I've just been reading a very interesting document produced by a the European Union Committee in the House of Lords based on consultation with two experts in the field of EU law: Sir David Edward, a former Judge of the Court of Justice of the European Union and Professor Emeritus at the School of Law, University of Edinburgh; and Professor Derrick Wyatt, Emeritus Professor of Law, Oxford University, and also of Brick Court Chambers. it looks like they have carefully scrutinised the laws to check the implications of a Brexit (this was done in preparation for a possible Leave vote in the referendum).  This gives an idea of why it is going to take so long to sort everything out.  They pretty much say that getting everything settled in 2 years is completely unrealistic, but the EU is likely not to want to prolong it, therefore there will be a lot of organisations and individuals left in a strange legal limbo, for example:

"“A university has an EU research funding package with provision for cross-frontier movement of research scientists, and that has a life beyond two years. What happens to that? What happens to Erasmus students? When does participation in Erasmus end? A divorced couple live in the UK and another member state with special arrangements for access to children, and particularly cross-border payment of family maintenance. What happens to that? There are cross-border investments and tax treatment of capital and revenue. There are agricultural support payments and fishing quotas." (p. 13)

Interesting figures are mentioned such as outside the EU single market there would be tariffs of 10% on cars (imported or exported) and 35% on dairy products.  (Time to start stockpiling parmesan?)

Also very interestingly, for our Scottish and Northern Irish boarders, paragraph 70 says (my bold) "We asked Sir David whether he thought the Scottish Parliament would have to give its consent to measures extinguishing the application of EU law in Scotland. He noted that such measures would entail amendment of section 29 of the Scotland Act 1998, which binds the Scottish Parliament to act in a manner compatible with EU law, and he therefore believed that the Scottish Parliament’s consent would be required. He could envisage certain political advantages being drawn from not giving consent." and paragraph 71 says "We note that the European Communities Act is also entrenched in the devolution settlements of Wales and Northern Ireland. Though we have taken no evidence on this specific point, we have no reason to believe that the requirement for legislative consent for its repeal would not apply to all the devolved nations."

[Kalbear]

I do like the idea of the Remainers deciding to push a platform of what they actually want - to minimize the pain. They can put into place a points-based system for immigration to placate the leavers, even though chances are good that it'll actually increase immigration from said undesirable muslims. And then they can otherwise push for making sure they have favored status with the EU similar  to Norway - open migration from EU countries, open currency systems between the two, the passport that the banking system needs. 

It's probably not going to be as good as it is, but at least it minimizes the risk and damage while giving the leavers something that they want. 

Also, can I say how I love that we had an actual Too Big To Fail moment averted by the banking regulations put into place? 

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

36 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

V. interesting if true. The next time someone claims the old screwed over the young, suggest the young should have actually gone out and voted.

Turnout % of each age group in the #EURefResults:

18-24: 36%

25-34: 58%

35-44: 72%

45-54: 75%

55-64: 81%

65+: 83%

via @SkyData

Your giving people who act as individuals the status of a group, had they acted as a group they could have all voted and changed the result, but they aren't a hivemind, no one of them decided to let leave win, nor any group of them, each of them knew as individuals that their votes couldn't change anything.

*said as one of the 36%

[DireWolfSpirit]

Well that's (Brexit) one way to get rid of D. Cameron.

[Free Northman Reborn]

17 minutes ago, Ser Arthur Hightower said:

Your giving people who act as individuals the status of a group, had they acted as a group they could have all voted and changed the result, but they aren't a hivemind, no one of them decided to let leave win, nor any group of them, each of them knew as individuals that their votes couldn't change anything.

*said as one of the 36%

Or it means that the a large portion of young people don't give two shits about the issue one way or another, hence they didn't bother voting. 

[Chaircat Meow]

5 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Or it means that the a large portion of young people don't give two shits about the issue one way or another, hence they didn't bother voting. 

That's exactly what it means.

Not sure what point Hightower was trying to make.

[Which Tyler]

8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Or it means that the a large portion of young people don't give two shits about the issue one way or another, hence they didn't bother voting. 

That's never really the truth though - for voter turnout.

You've got apathy, ignorance and disillusionment all playing their part; alongside inconvenience (not giving enough of a shit =/= not giving a shit)

[A Horse Named Stranger]

18 minutes ago, Ser Arthur Hightower said:

Your giving people who act as individuals the status of a group, had they acted as a group they could have all voted and changed the result, but they aren't a hivemind, no one of them decided to let leave win, nor any group of them, each of them knew as individuals that their votes couldn't change anything.

*said as one of the 36%

What exactly is your point? Two thirds of your peers did not show up to vote. All polls indicated that it would be a neck and neck race. So they kinda deserved to get shafted by the elderly. I mean it's not like Johnson took his ridiculous bus on a thursday trip to collect all the elderly from retirement homes and dropped them off at the next voting station. The Scots on the other hand, let's say, I can see how they have an axe to grind with the south, and why they want no part of that result. 

I am curious how Sturgeon's quest will play out. I really don't fancy her chances of keeping an independent Scotland in the EU.

[Chaircat Meow]

1 minute ago, Notone said:

What exactly is your point? Two thirds of your peers did not show up to vote. All polls indicated that it would be a neck and neck race. So they kinda deserved to get shafted by the elderly. I mean it's not like Johnson took his ridiculous bus on a thursday trip to collect all the elderly from retirement homes and dropped them off at the next voting station. The Scots on the other hand, let's say, I can see how they have an axe to grind with the south, and why they want no part of that result. 

I am curious how Sturgeon's quest will play out. I really don't fancy her chances of keeping an independent Scotland in the EU.

Over a million Scots voted to Leave and Take Control actually. Fewer people in Scotland voted to Remain in the EU than voted to stay in the UK.

Why do you think an iScotland could not stay in the EU (not saying I disagree - just curious about reasons)?

[themerchant]

Turn out was well down in Scotland.

67% for the EU referendum 85% for Scottish Independence.

That's a lot of people interested in voting in one referendum and not the other.

The remain peeps were told in the Independence referendum the only way to guarantee EU membership is to vote No. It's annoying the press don't highlight all the nonsense folk spew in the run up to elections as a mechanism to stop them doing it.

 

[Chaircat Meow]

3 minutes ago, themerchant said:

Turn out was well down in Scotland.

67% for the EU referendum 85% for Scottish Independence.

That's a lot of people interested in voting in one referendum and not the other.

The remain peeps were told in the Independence referendum the only way to guarantee EU membership is to vote No. It's annoying the press don't highlight all the nonsense folk spew in the run up to elections as a mechanism to stop them doing it.

 

For all we know BT were right that Scotland would have lost EU membership for a time. No one ever promised that the UK would not leave the EU, it was just said such an outcome was very improbable (that was the way it looked then). Voters were told directly that the conservatives were going to hold a referendum if we won the election.

[DireWolfSpirit]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And the big Celtic tribe that conquered England were the Belgica

^^^ That set me off on an hour long reading of interesting Belgae history. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:England_Celtic_tribes_-_South.png

[sweetsunray]

7 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

^^^ That set me off on an hour long reading of interesting Belgae history. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:England_Celtic_tribes_-_South.png

Hehehe, it's probably the sole conquests of my far far ancestors We've been conquered ever since Caesar, however, except Britain.

[DaveSumm]

I can see this being incredibly, incredibly messy. It'd be hard enough with just Britain trying to untangle itself whilst keeping its own interests at the forefront, let alone Sturgeon trying to simultaneously arrange a seamless move to independent membership of the EU. Surely it's all hypothetical, how could a Scotland that's not independent yet negotiate terms of membership on the possibility? Would there not have to be a period where Scotland is out of both the EU and the UK?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

43 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Over a million Scots voted to Leave and Take Control actually. Fewer people in Scotland voted to Remain in the EU than voted to stay in the UK.

Why do you think an iScotland could not stay in the EU (not saying I disagree - just curious about reasons)?

So? You saw the turnout numbers above, so a for the sake of the argument, let's assume the abstinent Scots were likely to be younger voters. The big winner for the better together campaign were the elderly, who showed up for the Brexit vote. So a big chunk of those abstinent voters were probably Scottish independence voters anyway.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/20/scottish-independence-lord-ashcroft-poll

Now the UK is taking some fairly hard hits on their best selling points, namely Economy, Pound, EU membership. The pound has dropped in value (and I don't think the markets are done yet), the economic future of Britain without the singular market looks less promising, and the EU membership is obviously no longer existent. 

Now to your question. 

1. I don't think the EU are big enough jerks to backstab London in such a way (as deserved and entertaining as it might be). I might be wrong, and Sturgeons walks away with the assurances she wants. But I really don't see that happening as entertaining as it might be. 

2. She would still need to get a nod from Westminster for another referendum? I don't think whoever will reside in Downing Street after Cameron will be crazy enough to give his or her consent. Especially not after getting burned on this one.

3. Even if she manages to get the first two things, she would still need to win that referendum. And adopting the Euro as currency is not exactly a super attractive selling point. A PM Johnson and a sufficiently conservative enough goverment in London might piss the Scots off enough. Especially after Scotland loses farming subsidies and money from structural development funds. A "we need only London City policy, and don't care about Scotland and the North in General" can make the Euro look a less unattractive.

But considering she basically needs all three to make that thing work, I really would not bet any money on Scottish Inpendence.