UK Politics: A Farcical Aquatic Ceremony

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, scotcat said:

Your point being? 

Ruth Davidson can oppose it all she likes.  She loses all credibility with the fact that last week she was campaigning vehemently to remain in the EU.  She keeps banging on about how this is against the will of themillion of those who voted to leave - well, they'll be told the same thing those of us who voted for independence were told.  Deal with it. 

62% of us voted to remain in the EU. 

I simply stumbled onto that amendment, and remembered your post, and I found the combination of both to be somewhat amusing. Because that amendment basically meant: stop playing politics you pesky little child (Scotland), and let the mothership (Westminster) deal with it.

[Chaircat Meow]

Tbh, before Brexit I didn't care what happened to the Labour party and was happy for Jez to run them into the ground. However, I think we are now entitled to strong opposition. Jez has to go. Hopefully Labour will put Dan Jarvis in charge. He might steady the vote in the Labour areas that voted for Brexit. Only in the delusional minds of his supporters does Jez have any appeal to the old labour working class vote and the swing voters. He must go.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, SeanF said:

Yes and no.  Judging by the trade statistics, the Single Market works a good deal better for people selling into the UK than for UK exporters selling into the rest of the EU.  If stuff from the EU got more expensive, domestic goods would look more attractive to consumers by comparison.

The UK does not have such a strong industrial backbone to jump in, and it's not just endproducts that gets imported to the UK, but also production parts. So also domestically produced goods will get more expensive.

And that's not even the worst part. The British economy is heavily dependent on its banking sector. After an EU exit, the UK will lose the opportunity to sell the financial products to clients within the EU. That'S where all this London City exodus is coming from. And Frankfurt, Paris, and Dublin will pick up probably pick up a good portion of those jobs. 

So I really don't see how Johnson or anybody else can entertain the notion, that they will be holding the stronger position in any negotiation. The big price is the single market, and not Britain. 

[DaveSumm]

32 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I though the idea was Jez, Abbot and Mcdonnell do multiple jobs.

 

[Chaircat Meow]

5 minutes ago, Notone said:

The UK does not have such a strong industrial backbone to jump in, and it's not just endproducts that gets imported to the UK, but also production parts. So also domestically produced goods will get more expensive.

And that's not even the worst part. The British economy is heavily dependent on its banking sector. After an EU exit, the UK will lose the opportunity to sell the financial products to clients within the EU. That'S where all this London City exodus is coming from. And Frankfurt, Paris, and Dublin will pick up probably pick up a good portion of those jobs. 

So I really don't see how Johnson or anybody else can entertain the notion, that they will be holding the stronger position in any negotiation. The big price is the single market, and not Britain. 

I don't work in finance so can't really comment with authority, but everyone I know who does seems to think the threat to the city from single market exit, although real, is also rather overblown. So too, (not that I know him) does Meryvn King, the former governor of the Bank of England.

[SeanF]

13 minutes ago, Notone said:

The UK does not have such a strong industrial backbone to jump in, and it's not just endproducts that gets imported to the UK, but also production parts. So also domestically produced goods will get more expensive.

And that's not even the worst part. The British economy is heavily dependent on its banking sector. After an EU exit, the UK will lose the opportunity to sell the financial products to clients within the EU. That'S where all this London City exodus is coming from. And Frankfurt, Paris, and Dublin will pick up probably pick up a good portion of those jobs. 

So I really don't see how Johnson or anybody else can entertain the notion, that they will be holding the stronger position in any negotiation. The big price is the single market, and not Britain. 

That would hurt, but about 67% of the UK's sales of insurance and financial services is to clients outside the EU, and that proportion is steadily rising.

[mormont]

44 minutes ago, SeanF said:

If he can persuade the 40 to nominate him, it doesn't matter whether he automatically goes on to the ballot.

You need more than 40 nominations to get onto the ballot.

[ElizabethB.]

1 hour ago, Hereward said:

It wasn't primarily, or even mainly, a monetary union any more than it was a trade union. It was a political project, and avowedly so. Many people, and some countries, preferred to ignore that, or were lied to about that, but it's true. It seems, belatedly for some, that the political dream, in the UK, has become clearer and people are expressing grief at the destruction of that.

A political project without the means and the will to enforce it? Nah.

That said, the UK hasn't resigned yet. 

[Zoë Sumra]

1 hour ago, Notone said:

The UK does not have such a strong industrial backbone to jump in, and it's not just endproducts that gets imported to the UK, but also production parts. So also domestically produced goods will get more expensive.

And that's not even the worst part. The British economy is heavily dependent on its banking sector. After an EU exit, the UK will lose the opportunity to sell the financial products to clients within the EU. That'S where all this London City exodus is coming from. And Frankfurt, Paris, and Dublin will pick up probably pick up a good portion of those jobs. 

Plus with two of our big energy companies owned by France and Germany respectively, energy costs for producing British jobs are likely to rise: increased labour costs will lead to food price rises.

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

That would hurt, but about 67% of the UK's sales of insurance and financial services is to clients outside the EU, and that proportion is steadily rising.

I can't double-embed quotes so I can't show that this was a reply to Notone's post I've quoted above.

Assuming that bankers pay their income tax (a big assumption, I know), we don't need to lose many jobs to be in trouble.  Say we keep two thirds and lose one third.  That represents huge lost income to the Treasury.

[Hereward]

2 hours ago, ElizabethB. said:

A political project without the means and the will to enforce it? Nah.

That said, the UK hasn't resigned yet. 

I'm sorry, you've completely lost me. Are you saying the EU isn't, and wasn't, a political project? Because if you are, I really don't know where to go with this. 

[Slick Mongoose]

So the bright new "electable" Labour challenger is probably going to be...... Tom Watson or Angela Eagle.

[Maltaran]

11 minutes ago, England's Finest said:

So the bright new "electable" Labour challenger is probably going to be...... Tom Watson or Angela Eagle.

Well, it has to be someone who can beat Corbyn among the members. If he wasn't on the ballot I expect Yvette Cooper would be running.

[ElizabethB.]

55 minutes ago, Hereward said:

I'm sorry, you've completely lost me. Are you saying the EU isn't, and wasn't, a political project? Because if you are, I really don't know where to go with this. 

No, I am so sorry. 

As a "political project" an establishment lacking the ability to enforce itself seems rather likely to fail. I am not saying the establishment can't get lucky. 

[Slick Mongoose]

5 minutes ago, Maltrouane Fellaini said:

Well, it has to be someone who can beat Corbyn among the members. If he wasn't on the ballot I expect Yvette Cooper would be running.

Angela Eagle stabbed him in the back with crocodile tears on live TV. And both of them were absent for the welfare bill. Labour members can have long memories.

I'm unconvinced.

[Maltaran]

Who gets nominated depends a lot on whether or not Corbyn is allowed on the ballot (if the NEC rule that he has to get nominated, he almost certainly won't be)

[Werthead]

Quote

As a "political project" an establishment lacking the ability to enforce itself seems rather likely to fail. I am not saying the establishment can't get lucky. 

The EU was certainly a political project, but it was also a different kind of a political project to almost every single member state, and the objectives changed over time. That's why holding the referendum now as kind of bizarre, as right now the France-German axis isn't ruling the roost any more (thanks to Hollande's interesting experiment in how far he can run France into the ground) and has been diluted by the influx of new members, who inconveniently have shown a reduced appetite for being told what to do by Berlin when it's supposed to be a union, not a dictatorship. Britain was actually an important part of the breaking mechanism on the whole thing being a Franco-German project.

And obviously it's kind of difficult for the EU to become that dictatorial, authoritarian state that everyone feared when at any time a country can say, "I'm out" and be gone, as has just been aptly demonstrated.

What may by the daftest thing about the situation is that we realise our influence and power in the EU at the very moment we leave it, and quite a lot of the benefits may become more obvious only with hindsight.

[James Arryn]

7 hours ago, HobbsTuna said:

The reason that the US does not have the "same problems" is selective immigration. You people sort for economic usefulness and tell the rest to go get bend. This has the happy side-effect of a.) only letting people in, who are to busy to making money to isolate themselves, b.) have the financial resources to prevent ghetto effects and c.) do not cause resentments in the locals as they don't use up more resources than they consume. Admittedly the third point is kinda mute with the US, as pissing on low-income people and calling it rain, seems to be somewhat of a national sport, so there wasn't all that much danger of them running into a social program to begin with. 

Not true. I, we, Canada is much less 'selective' but also has much less of this kind of problem.

[Sophelia]

So... I am currently a member of the disintegrating Labour party.  So if I get asked to vote this thread will kind of be an advice thread for me!

I didn't vote Corbyn in (I wasn't a member or supporter then), and only joined when I had seen Corbyn stand up against the bombing of Syria, and come out in favour of Remain.  I love the rediscovery of socialist values by young people etc., even if sometimes a bit over the top!  And the first time a politician has attracted admiration (and scorn - which he brushes off) for being genuine, down to earth, an ordinary person.

I was shocked that members of the Parliamentary Labour Party made no secret from early on that they didn't respect Corbyn and wanted him deposed, and have told the media so, which has undermined Corbyn from the start (facing hostility from the media, other parties, but also his own MPs).  I am appalled by the timing of this coup*, that they have destroyed the Labour party just at this moment when a strong opposition to the Tories and UKIP is so sorely needed.

However these resignations are of people who are regarded as respected and experienced (as opposed to Corbyn and his allies who are amateurs), does make me feel that (1) maybe they know something I don't.  I had assumed their opposition to Corbyn was because they either didn't like his views or they thought he couldn't win, which didn't sway me since I like his views and I haven't seen anyone else more popular put forward.  But I wonder if having tried working with him there is something about his personality that they know that I do not - similar to what Mormont and others were saying about leadership and (2) that they have now made it impossible for him to go on, as you can't have a leader if the majority of his colleagues won't work with him, and he is basically walking around with a massive label saying his own MPs think he is incompetent, which means the media, other parties and public will have even less regard for him.  Personally I also think it reflects extremely badly on the parliamentary labour party, that their timing and the sequence of resignations has been such as to inflict maximum damage on their own party, and that they have been using the media to get at Corbyn.  To me very unprofessional, and casts disrepute on the whole party, just at the point where otherwise so many people would have felt it was the one safe haven.

So... I am waiting to see this candidate who they think is going to be better than Corbyn.  They need someone who has appeal to the working classes as well as the middle classes, someone who young people will turn to after the referendum shock, someone who will also appeal to the older worried people too.  They need someone whose views are strongly in opposition to the Tories, e.g. anti-austerity, for worker's rights,for the manufacturing industry, for the national health service.  They need someone also who shows leadership and will make rousing speeches, show up well on TV etc.  They also need someone who can think beyond Remain, to ways to find any good to be found in Brexit, if/when it comes to that, and who can tread carefully through the immigration minefield without alienating either side.  They also need to be able to unify the left and centre-left sides of the Labour party, to get them working together in Parliament.  Who is this miracle person and why haven't we noticed them before?  (The only person who seems to be making a good impact in the media currently is Sadiq Khan, but he has his hands full with another job).

32 minutes ago, England's Finest said:

Angela Eagle stabbed him in the back with crocodile tears on live TV. And both of them were absent for the welfare bill. Labour members can have long memories.

I'm unconvinced.

The welfare bill was one of the deciding points for me personally - it has to be someone who voted against it. 

 

* I believe Diane Abbott when she said it was planned well before the referendum: that it just a pretext.  I believe it because I had been reading it in the media for ages that a coup was planned.

[Kalbear]

I believe, @Sophelia, that by naming that you're a member of the Labour party in public you are now nominated and the presumptive leader of the Labour party. Congratulations.

[Sophelia]

1 minute ago, Dickwad Poster #3784 said:

I believe, @Sophelia, that by naming that you're a member of the Labour party in public you are now nominated and the presumptive leader of the Labour party. Congratulations.

Actually it would be quite Corbynesque if we had a leadership distributed amongst all the members.