Latest PJ video

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Fresh meat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZ7fAO2p0YY&index=11&list=PLCsx_OFEYH6uvfZSfec35DXBEpvA9fpm0

I didn't see any other thread out there for discussing this, so I thought I'd start one.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Personally, as much as I love his theories, I really don't buy the Brave Companions/Dornish connection. I think it's entirely possible to explain Vargo Hoat's manoeuvres thusly:

1. He switched sides because the Northmen took Harrenhall by surprise and if he hadn't have done so, he might've been killed

2. He maimed Jaime purely to communicate to Tywin that he wasn't fucking around.

People, including Preston (and even Roose Bolton) are forever imputing all these clever motives to Vargo Hoat, but I think they're ignoring the simpler explanation that he simply isn't the shrewdest political operator in the game. He seems to genuinely think that he'll be able to hold Harrenhal, for instance, which is of course daft. The leader of a half-useful sellsword company isn't going to be made a great lord. And between this and being foreign I think it's reasonable that he'd be ignorant or dismissive of Tywin's reputation, and that he'd think he could maim Jaime, get "half the gold in Casterly Rock" and ride off into the sunset.

I do love the idea that Doran is trying to limit nullify the Kingsguard, or at least to limit Cersei's options for her trial. I think Preston takes it a little too far, but still, there's plenty of scope for Doran to be exercising some influence here. He has some friends in King's Landing who could apprise him of developments there, so... let me puzzle it out, by the time Cersei is arrested, the Kingsguard is thus:

Arys Oakheart - dead

Balon Swann - on his way to Dorne, being delayed by Doran

Boros Blount - old and seemingly sick

Meryn Trant

Loras Tyrell - supposedly injured

Jaime Lannister - definitely injured

Osmund Kettleblack - arrested

 

Please correct my mistakes there.

So Doran knows that there's 3 Kingsguard who will be unable to fight for her, one spot waiting to be filled, and of the 3 remaining options only one of them is a competent swordsman - and this is the one Doran sends off to chase Darkstar, thus keeping him away from King's Landing.

I don't credit Doran with as much forethought as Preston does, but I can see how he could have tried to put his thumb on the scale here. Cersei losing her trial would be good for Dorne, would help unmake Tywin's works.

Question is, when could Doran first know about Robert Strong, if not for Qyburn?

[MostlyMoody]

Alex Jones of ASOIAF.

Nearly every single character development point is being explained by someone influencing them through dreams, magic or intricate plots. Nothing can happen by chance, everything has to be explained with overly complicated schemes.

I do find his videos entertaining however, he clearly puts a lot of thought in them, you just gotta know how to tune it out from the actual story.

[dinner]

I think GRRM is running a low magic world,  by and large,  while this explanation requires magic at every turn. 

[YOVMO]

11 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Fresh meat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZ7fAO2p0YY&index=11&list=PLCsx_OFEYH6uvfZSfec35DXBEpvA9fpm0

I didn't see any other thread out there for discussing this, so I thought I'd start one.

hey thanks for this. I love PJ videos. Gonna watch this after I see the show to wipe the bad taste of abhorrent writing out of my brain box.

[MinotaurWarrior]

6 hours ago, dinner said:

I think GRRM is running a low magic world,  by and large,  while this explanation requires magic at every turn. 

I mean, this video is about how events were arranged so that a zombie could fight the champion of the faith on behalf of Cersei. I wouldn't be shocked to learn that some magic was involved in that situation.

 

15 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Personally, as much as I love his theories, I really don't buy the Brave Companions/Dornish connection. I think it's entirely possible to explain Vargo Hoat's manoeuvres thusly:

1. He switched sides because the Northmen took Harrenhall by surprise and if he hadn't have done so, he might've been killed

2. He maimed Jaime purely to communicate to Tywin that he wasn't fucking around.

1) Isn't quite right. The Bloody Mummers were the ones who took Harrenhal for Roose. When the Northmen are brought into Harrenhal, it's with mummer's injuries, and then when Arya frees them, they say something like, "well, this was earlier than expected." They seem to have switched sides because they got a better offer, because that's what sellswords do.

2) Is spot on. Hoat doesn't need some conspiracy to get him to maim a guy.

PJ's theory there also makes no sense, because Qyburn just wasn't involved in that decision. Nobody was whispering in Hoat's ear as he decided to maim Jaime.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

11 hours ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

1) Isn't quite right. The Bloody Mummers were the ones who took Harrenhal for Roose. When the Northmen are brought into Harrenhal, it's with mummer's injuries, and then when Arya frees them, they say something like, "well, this was earlier than expected." They seem to have switched sides because they got a better offer, because that's what sellswords do.

Wasn't it that case that... hold on, let me work out the chronology

 

+++COMPUTING+++

Isn't it like this?

1. Lannisters hold Harrenhal with the Bloody Mummers

2. Arya frees the Stark prisoners, who overrun the castle

3. Bloody Mummers switch sides and hold the castle with the Stark prisoners until Roose Bolton arrives

That's how I remember it, anyway: the Bloody Mummers are caught off guard and decide it'd be too hard to stay loyal to the Lannisters under the circumstances. A combination of fear and the sellsword's instinct for self-preservation, and the sellsword's desire for easy money.

[MinotaurWarrior]

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Wasn't it that case that... hold on, let me work out the chronology

 

+++COMPUTING+++

Isn't it like this?

1. Lannisters hold Harrenhal with the Bloody Mummers

2. Arya frees the Stark prisoners, who overrun the castle

3. Bloody Mummers switch sides and hold the castle with the Stark prisoners until Roose Bolton arrives

That's how I remember it, anyway: the Bloody Mummers are caught off guard and decide it'd be too hard to stay loyal to the Lannisters under the circumstances. A combination of fear and the sellsword's instinct for self-preservation, and the sellsword's desire for easy money.

No. The mummers were essentially acting as a trojan horse. Arya notes that their captives looked much more wounded on the way in than they appear in the dungeon. Conspicuously, none of the captives were maimed by Vargo "I chop off hands and feet" Hoat. And as I already pointed out, the northmen in the dungeon were expecting to be freed.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

So right you are, I missed that

[Dorian Martell]

Like all the theories posted here, it relies on assumptions as the basis of hte theory. Blount being poisoned instead of just being out of shape and lazy.  that is the begining. PJ has far too much time on his hands 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Here's a question: when Bolton bought Hoat, was this just after Renly died?

[dariopatke]

On 27.6.2016. at 6:36 PM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Here's a question: when Bolton bought Hoat, was this just after Renly died?

Around that time, probably. Why? 

[Sourjapes]

On 6/26/2016 at 0:56 PM, dinner said:

I think GRRM is running a low magic world,  by and large,  while this explanation requires magic at every turn. 

PJ's theories require that GRRM plan ever single little detail letter for letter book after book.

 

I think the simpler explanation is that GRRM is human and sometimes forgets the little stuff or even misses possible connections that he could have made at the time.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

On Tuesday, 28 June 2016 at 0:36 AM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Here's a question: when Bolton bought Hoat, was this just after Renly died?

On Saturday, 2 July 2016 at 9:38 AM, dariopatke said:

Around that time, probably. Why? 

...I don't remember.

...um...

...ooh - maybe because Renly's loss changed the calculus for the war.

Preston's theory is that the Brave Companions switched to get closer to Jaime Lannister, because they needed access to him for Dorne's benefit.¹

Hoat's explanation is that they merely defected to the winning side.

If dariopatke is correct about the timing of the switch, then that supports Hoat's explanation. Between Renly's death and Stannis's defeat at the Blackwater (and Theon's concurrent burning of Winterfell), Tywin was no longer a safe bet.

He was caught between two very powerful and dangerous enemies, neither of whom were likely to fight each other before dealing with him. Stannis is a widely respected and feared military commander, and Robb has proven himself better than Tywin. Stannis had the Stormlords on side, as well as some Crownlands and Reach houses, and the enormous advantage of the royal navy. Robb had the North and the Riverlands, and was currently doing donuts on Tywin's front lawn. The Iron Islands, the Vale, the Tyrells, and Dorne weren't involving themselves.

And what did Tywin have? He had one army in the Riverlands facing two armies to his north and another, bigger one to his south. He could rely on the Westerlands and some of the Crownlands and King's Landing for support, but if he committed to the defence of either, he'd lose the other. Without some victories in the political sphere - which is how he won - he's up fart creek without a paddle, as they say in Canada.

So, ugh, the timing, the timing of the defection is very significant, because if it occurs between Renly's death and the Battle of the Blackwater, then it occurs while Tywin is at his weakest, and thus makes sense without the need for a Dornish explanation. I think that's what I was getting at.

But who knows? It was like a week ago, I don't know what I was thinking five minutes ago. I got that Memento memory, lol.

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1. Specifically, so they could enact Dorne's plan of weakening the Kingsguard, so that Oberyn could fight the Mountain, and... get killed by the Mountain? And then the Mountain could die from poison, but Qyburn could bring him back, thus proving Cersei lied about the Mountain being dead - even though, technically, she didn't, if the Mountain is now a walking corpse? Like I said, I'm not totally on board.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

On Saturday, 2 July 2016 at 9:38 AM, dariopatke said:

Around that time, probably. Why? 

Eh, I don't remember why I asked tbh. I could speculate, but I don't feel much like typing anyway. My fingers are tired for some reason. :s

[Damon_Tor]

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Eh, I don't remember why I asked tbh. I could speculate, but I don't feel much like typing anyway. My fingers are tired for some reason. :s

Sounds like somebody might be influencing your actions telepathically. But why would the Pope want you to post that question? And how does this connect to the Kennedy assassination? And if Ben Franklin was a wizard, were the Freemasons involved?

[dariopatke]

5 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

...I don't remember.

...um...

...ooh - maybe because Renly's loss changed the calculus for the war.

Preston's theory is that the Brave Companions switched to get closer to Jaime Lannister, because they needed access to him for Dorne's benefit.¹

Hoat's explanation is that they merely defected to the winning side.

If dariopatke is correct about the timing of the switch, then that supports Hoat's explanation. Between Renly's death and Stannis's defeat at the Blackwater (and Theon's concurrent burning of Winterfell), Tywin was no longer a safe bet.

He was caught between two very powerful and dangerous enemies, neither of whom were likely to fight each other before dealing with him. Stannis is a widely respected and feared military commander, and Robb has proven himself better than Tywin. Stannis had the Stormlords on side, as well as some Crownlands and Reach houses, and the enormous advantage of the royal navy. Robb had the North and the Riverlands, and was currently doing donuts on Tywin's front lawn. The Iron Islands, the Vale, the Tyrells, and Dorne weren't involving themselves.

And what did Tywin have? He had one army in the Riverlands facing two armies to his north and another, bigger one to his south. He could rely on the Westerlands and some of the Crownlands and King's Landing for support, but if he committed to the defence of either, he'd lose the other. Without some victories in the political sphere - which is how he won - he's up fart creek without a paddle, as they say in Canada.

So, ugh, the timing, the timing of the defection is very significant, because if it occurs between Renly's death and the Battle of the Blackwater, then it occurs while Tywin is at his weakest, and thus makes sense without the need for a Dornish explanation. I think that's what I was getting at.

But who knows? It was like a week ago, I don't know what I was thinking five minutes ago. I got that Memento memory, lol.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Specifically, so they could enact Dorne's plan of weakening the Kingsguard, so that Oberyn could fight the Mountain, and... get killed by the Mountain? And then the Mountain could die from poison, but Qyburn could bring him back, thus proving Cersei lied about the Mountain being dead - even though, technically, she didn't, if the Mountain is now a walking corpse? Like I said, I'm not totally on board.

This makes perfect sense! Now the only sellsword mistery is where are Tyroshi that Robb defeated at Riverrun.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

On Sunday, 3 July 2016 at 10:17 PM, Damon_Tor said:

Sounds like somebody might be influencing your actions telepathically. But why would the Pope want you to post that question? And how does this connect to the Kennedy assassination? And if Ben Franklin was a wizard, were the Freemasons involved?

Don't know, don't know, of course - but what do you mean "if"?

By the way, I found something in this that might be relevant towards PJ's Dorne theory. The bulk of the theory at that link concerns the idea that the Elder Brother on the Quiet Isle is Lewyn Martell (and also Ser Morgarth), based mainly on physical commonalities between the Elder Brother, Doran and Quentyn. But there's someone else that has those physical traits too.

Two quotes therefrom:

Quote

Before I lay out a systematic comparison between the Martells and the Elder Brother, let’s flesh out the family portrait with one more hitherto unknown Martell: the Princess of Dorne’s younger brother, Arianne’s, Quentyn‘s and Tristayne’s great-uncle, Doran’s, Elia’s and Oberyn‘s uncle, and “Elder Brother” Lewyn Martell’s elder brother, Marwyn “The Mage” Martell...

[Emphasis in original.]

And:

Quote

If Marwyn is a Martell, the fact that Sarella/Alleras Sand is his right hand “man” suddenly makes a helluva lotta sense, doesn’t it?

Why, yes - yes it does. And on top of that, at the above link some handsome and successful commenter (I'm assuming) has chimed in with this:

Quote

And isn’t it clever how the maesters go by only one name, even those who had two when they first arrived at the Citadel? That way we cannot know who they truly are or where they come from … but if you are dogged enough, you can still find out.

-- A Dance with Dragons, The Prince of Winterfell

Lady Dustin's speech to Theon was quite a big deal, introducing as it does the idea that the maesters might've been responsible for Robert's Rebellion in the first place, and confirming Marwyn's notion that the Citadel is not to be trusted. And I'm sure many of us wondered, once she'd said that, just which maesters might've had some secret connections. (Personally I wondered if Pycelle was a Westerman, but that's probably a little too obvious.)

But given that we're already predisposed to like him, how many of us wondered about Marwyn? Personally, I think the idea that Marwyn's a Martell is very apposite; it would certainly fit in well with PJ's theory. I wonder if that's coming in a later video?

(Jesus - now I'm posting speculative theories about somebody else's speculative theories - I'm progressing from Nerd to Saddo.)