Floki of the Ironborn Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 It's probably been said before but I'll say it again. Roose Bolton was picked to lead the North's infantry because he used cold cunning rather than brute force and unthinking courage. He drives his Northmen into a forced march to catch Tywin unawares. So he has the advantage of not being expected by an enemy which has thousands of horsemen, and which also outnumbers his own forces. Why not raid the Lannister camp at night?? Instead of marching up blowing horns and organizing your forces into a traditional battle line, why not quietly approach the camp under cover of darkness, kill the sentries, and ride in slaughtering anyone you find? Sure, such attacks are nigh impossible to control, but Tywin has a lot more to lose than Roose in that moment. Tywin's army would be severely depleted before they could begin to fight back in unison, and in all the confusion Tywin risks losing important commanders, or even his own life. Also, based on what I've read on the subject, I think it's clear that Roose Bolton deliberately sabotaged the battle, which makes it all the more maddening that if anyone else had commanded the Stark host, they had the potential to severely weaken Tywin's forces, kill or capture valuable Lannisters like Kevan or Tyrion, or even kill Tywin Lannister outright. This, coupled with the utter defeat of Jaime Lannister and his army, would have brought the war between the Lannisters and Tullys/Starks to almost an immediate halt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Make Shadowbabies Not War Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 As I understand it, this was Roose following Robb's instruction. He was not supposed to win this battle, but draw Tywin's attention from Robb's second army. He marches through the night purely to ensure that Tywin is unable to turn towards Riverrun and catch Robb from behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelittledragonthatcould Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Roose did not try and lose the battle of the Green Fork. It simply makes no logical sense and no one, not the nobles with him, Robb, the Blackfish and the other nobles at Riverrun or even the Lannisters think he did this. What would his motive be? Planning on deliberately losing means that he could potentially lose his own life as defeat turns into a rout and the mounted Lannisters give chase he could lose much of his own men, making himself weaker in the process Robb could demote him, allowing some other noble to control the fate of him and his Bolton men At that point there is little upside to him deliberately trying to lose, later on when he has made deals with both the Freys and the Lannisters there is clear incentive and in those cases he and his Bolton forces are still safe from danger as he sends others to Duskendale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Yozza Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Just now, Make Shadowbabies Not War said: As I understand it, this was Roose following Robb's instruction. He was not supposed to win this battle, but draw Tywin's attention from Robb's second army. He marches through the night purely to ensure that Tywin is unable to turn towards Riverrun and catch Robb from behind. Robb told him to make sure Tywin didn't reach Riverrun. And fair enough Roose did that. But at the same time, why lose a battle that was possible to win? The Lannister army had no idea that Roose's army was there. He could have charged them straight away, but instead he sits on a hill and blows horns while the Lannister's form up. 2 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said: Roose did not try and lose the battle of the Green Fork. It simply makes no logical sense and no one, not the nobles with him, Robb, the Blackfish and the other nobles at Riverrun or even the Lannisters think he did this. What would his motive be? Planning on deliberately losing means that he could potentially lose his own life as defeat turns into a rout and the mounted Lannisters give chase he could lose much of his own men, making himself weaker in the process Robb could demote him, allowing some other noble to control the fate of him and his Bolton men At that point there is little upside to him deliberately trying to lose, later on when he has made deals with both the Freys and the Lannisters there is clear incentive and in those cases he and his Bolton forces are still safe from danger as he sends others to Duskendale. In case you hadn't read the chapter properly, let me point something out to you. The Bolton forces weren't on the field. Tyrion points out banners from all different houses, but he see's no flayed man. Kind of odd considering that his own forces were the better part of 3500 men. Those numbers make a big difference. And yes there is an upside. He isn't at risk, because he and his own men are way back from the battlefield. He gains because the house's that are most depleted after this battle are his main rivals in the North. There was very little risk that Robb would demote him because he achieved the main parameter of the battle: delay Tywin. Besides, how is Robb going to know what happened. Roose wouldn't tell him the exact play-by-play of the battle, he's just going to say that he tried a night march and it didn't work. This is also the reason no one at Riverrun think he did this: they weren't there, they didn't see the battle and even if they did they wouldn't notice, because Roose was clever about it. We as readers notice because we can analyze every little detail. A man on the field can't. His motive is simple: keeping his options open in case he needs to jump ship later, weakening his neighbours in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelittledragonthatcould Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said: Robb told him to make sure Tywin didn't reach Riverrun. And fair enough Roose did that. But at the same time, why lose a battle that was possible to win? While anything is possible, the odds were heavily against a Northern win. Not only did Tywin have more men but Roose only had around 500 mounted men to Tywins 7k and the superior postion. 16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said: The Lannister army had no idea that Roose's army was there. He could have charged them straight away, but instead he sits on a hill and blows horns while the Lannister's form up. In case you hadn't read the chapter properly, let me point something out to you. The Bolton forces weren't on the field. lol yes they were. Roose, like Tywin, were in reserve. That is still part of the field. Do you really think the Boltons were not there? That the Freys, Karstarks, Cerwyns and other nobles who fought in that battle would not have kicked up a shitstorm if Roose did not even bring his men to the battle? Seems strange that the Lannisters thought he was there, does it not? "My liege, we have taken some of their commanders. Lord Cerwyn, Ser Wylis Manderly, Harrion Karstark, four Freys. Lord Hornwood is dead, and I fear Roose Bolton has escaped us." How do you suppose they knew Roose was even there in the first place? 16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said: Tyrion points out banners from all different houses, but he see's no flayed man. Kind of odd considering that his own forces were the better part of 3500 men. Those numbers make a big difference. Yes, he points out the forces that were at the forefront and part of the Northern vanguard. Roose is, like Tywin, in a safer position but still part of the battle. 16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said: And yes there is an upside. He isn't at risk, because he and his own men are way back from the battlefield. He gains because the house's that are most depleted after this battle are his main rivals in the North. Of course there is a risk. Deliberately losing means he is putting his own life at risk from the Lannister army and risk angering Robb and weakening his own position. And of course when asked about the Green Fork GRRM suggests that he was actually trying to winLord Bolton may well have all sorts of things in mind. Whether or not he would act on any of those thoughts is another matter. Roose is the sort of fellow who keeps his thoughts to himself.And the best sword is the one that cuts both ways, he might tell you. Take the Battle of Green Fork. Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that. 16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said: There was very little risk that Robb would demote him because he achieved the main parameter of the battle:delay Tywin. Which makes absolutely zero sense. If you think that Roose suffered far more losses than he should have done or even lost a battle he should have won then Robb, who has access to far more information on the battle than we do, would be aware of it. Robb, the Blackfish, the Freys who suffered in that defeat or the other Northern nobles make any mention of how that battle went so badly. 16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said: Besides, how is Robb going to know what happened. By the many, many other nobles who were present and would have spoken up should Roose have fucked up so badly. Niether Roose or Robb knew that they would be separated for the whole war, that Tywin would retreat to Harrenhal instead of Kings Landing or that Robb would go West. Robb and the nobles with Roose could have been united much sooner. 16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said: Roose wouldn't tell him the exact play-by-play of the battle, he's just going to say that he tried a night march and it didn't work. If what you are saying is true, that he did not even bring his own men to battle or that he performed so badly that he lost then some other noble who had seen his men killed or captured would have spoken up. Roose is not the only person in that 17k army who has a voice. 16 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said: This is also the reason no one at Riverrun think he did this: they weren't there, they didn't see the battle and even if they did they wouldn't notice, because Roose was clever about it. We as readers notice because we can analyze every little detail. A man on the field can't. lol no, do not lump us all together. This is a silly theory came up largely from Robb fanboys who need to have someone to blame for every single thing that goes wrong in Robb's plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floki of the Ironborn Posted June 26, 2016 Author Share Posted June 26, 2016 16 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said: lol no, do not lump us all together. This is a silly theory came up largely from Robb fanboys who need to have someone to blame for every single thing that goes wrong in Robb's plans. Oh I'll certainly say Robb screwed up many times in the series. He shouldn't have sent Theon to the Iron Islands, he shouldn't have married Jeyne Westerling, he could have sent Rickard Karstark to the Wall instead of beheading him, and he trusted Roose Bolton too much. But when we're talking about the folly which is the Battle of Green Fork, I think it's safe to say Roose was at the very least hedging his bets if not deliberately weakening his rivals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarkofWinterfell Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 1 hour ago, thelittledragonthatcould said: Roose did not try and lose the battle of the Green Fork. It simply makes no logical sense and no one, not the nobles with him, Robb, the Blackfish and the other nobles at Riverrun or even the Lannisters think he did this. What would his motive be? Planning on deliberately losing means that he could potentially lose his own life as defeat turns into a rout and the mounted Lannisters give chase he could lose much of his own men, making himself weaker in the process Robb could demote him, allowing some other noble to control the fate of him and his Bolton men At that point there is little upside to him deliberately trying to lose, later on when he has made deals with both the Freys and the Lannisters there is clear incentive and in those cases he and his Bolton forces are still safe from danger as he sends others to Duskendale. Someone did a good analysis of this battle the other week and it was pretty evident from the argument the user put forth that Roose intentionally tried not to win the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Yozza Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 1 hour ago, thelittledragonthatcould said: Which makes absolutely zero sense. If you think that Roose suffered far more losses than he should have done or even lost a battle he should have won then Robb, who has access to far more information on the battle than we do, would be aware of it. Could have won, not should. Should implies that there was a guaranteed victory. There wasn't. When I say his forces weren't on the field, I mean that they didn't fight in the battle, as shown by the astounding lack of Bolton casualties throughout the war. The battle could have been won. Roose was on a HILL. Tywin's cavalry charging up that hill against the Northern spearmen would have been next to useless. Lannister archers would have been useless, while northern archers would be able to wreak havoc. Instead, Roose has his men recklessly charge into a formed up line of Lannister's. Hell, he could have done nothing at all. They could have just sat there. Tywin would still be delayed (he wouldn't turn around if 17,000 northmen were on his doorstep) and would have had to either go on the offensive or not do anything either. And Tywin did not have a superior position. Kevan actually speaks against Tywin marching north to face the Northern host because it would mean abandoning the advantage the land brings. The difference in numbers wasn't even that big: it was 17,300 against 20,000. We've seen worse odds with better results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Steller Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 1 hour ago, Adam Yozza said: Could have won, not should. Should implies that there was a guaranteed victory. There wasn't. When I say his forces weren't on the field, I mean that they didn't fight in the battle, as shown by the astounding lack of Bolton casualties throughout the war. The battle could have been won. Roose was on a HILL. Tywin's cavalry charging up that hill against the Northern spearmen would have been next to useless. Lannister archers would have been useless, while northern archers would be able to wreak havoc. Instead, Roose has his men recklessly charge into a formed up line of Lannister's. Hell, he could have done nothing at all. They could have just sat there. Tywin would still be delayed (he wouldn't turn around if 17,000 northmen were on his doorstep) and would have had to either go on the offensive or not do anything either. And Tywin did not have a superior position. Kevan actually speaks against Tywin marching north to face the Northern host because it would mean abandoning the advantage the land brings. The difference in numbers wasn't even that big: it was 17,300 against 20,000. We've seen worse odds with better results. Exactly. The whole thing either makes Roose Bolton an idiot, or a traitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YOVMO Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, James Steller said: Exactly. The whole thing either makes Roose Bolton an idiot, or a traitor. And Roose is a lot of things, but idiot isn't one of them. However, if he is a traitor he is doing it for gain. He is also not an idealist. He is a pragmatist, narcissist and interesting in increasing his power (evidenced by his deal with the Lannisters) and his wealth (as we see when he choses Walder Frey's fattest daughter because the dowry was attached to her weight). The question is, what was Roose's price for this particular screw up and who was paying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GallowsKnight Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 I tend to think he wasn't deliberately throwing the battle. But that he didn't risk anything too ambitiuous that might put himself in danger. And that he positioned rivals so that they would take the causalities not him. The battle never really sit right for me though. That Roose could surprise the Lannisters so much, seriously where are their scouts? This isn't Oxcross or Whispering woods, Tywin knew he was coming for him . I have also wondered what would have happened had Robb taken his whole force to confront Tywin. His numbers would have been bolstered by the Freys, so he'd have that advantage. He would also have the Direwolf. If that could have startled Tywin's horse lines in the night like Oxcross, that would have been a huge bonus. It'd probably be a more difficult battle than WW/Battle of the Camps but I could only wonder how better the war would have gone if he'd managed to kill/capture Tywin and Kevan. Edmure would still be a prisoner of Jaime. But Jaime would likely have no choice to retreat back to the Golden tooth. The Lannistes in KL would be screw either from Stannis or Renly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferocious Veldt Roarer Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 13 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said: It's probably been said before but I'll say it again. Roose Bolton was picked to lead the North's infantry because he used cold cunning rather than brute force and unthinking courage. He drives his Northmen into a forced march to catch Tywin unawares. So he has the advantage of not being expected by an enemy which has thousands of horsemen, and which also outnumbers his own forces. Why not raid the Lannister camp at night?? Instead of marching up blowing horns and organizing your forces into a traditional battle line, why not quietly approach the camp under cover of darkness, kill the sentries, and ride in slaughtering anyone you find? Sure, such attacks are nigh impossible to control, but Tywin has a lot more to lose than Roose in that moment. Tywin's army would be severely depleted before they could begin to fight back in unison, and in all the confusion Tywin risks losing important commanders, or even his own life. So, long story short, catch Lord Tywin with his breeches down? That broad idea was discussed. The Greatjon says that won’t matter if we catch him with his breeches down, but it seems to me that a man who has fought as many battles as Tywin Lannister won’t be so easily surprised.” And: “The eastern host will be all that stands between Lord Tywin and Winterfell,” he said thoughtfully. “Well, them and whatever few bowmen I leave here at the Moat. So I don’t want someone fearless, do I?” A high-yield, high-risk gamble would have been exactly the thing Robb Stark did not want (from his infantry, at any rate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Arthur Hightower Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 13 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said: Of course there is a risk. Deliberately losing means he is putting his own life at risk from the Lannister army and risk angering Robb and weakening his own position. And of course when asked about the Green Fork GRRM suggests that he was actually trying to winLord Bolton may well have all sorts of things in mind. Whether or not he would act on any of those thoughts is another matter. Roose is the sort of fellow who keeps his thoughts to himself.And the best sword is the one that cuts both ways, he might tell you. Take the Battle of Green Fork. Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that. This quote pretty much contradicts the majority of your argument, the argument doesn't have to be that Roose wanted a 0% chance of victory, just that he took huge risks with the lives of the Northern soldiers for essentially no chance of gain for "his side", whilst increasing his own relative strength and taking minimal risk. How is that really distinct from trying to lose? Furthermore you keep bringing up that Roose's betrayal would get him stripped of his command when found out about, despite the fact that, regardless of his intentions the battle was a huge fuck up, and it is implausible in a realistic scenarios that Robb would continue to leave Roose in command of a large part of his forces, but there you are. The only explanation would be that Roose was using his influence in the Twins to ensure Robb only heard what he wanted, but as you stated he didn't know he would only meet up with Robb again just before his death, so that would be incredibly risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aryagonnakill#2 Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 I have always maintained that fighting this battle all together was a waste. Tywin figures out Robbs ruse as soon as he realizes that Robb isn't at the battle, so saying that Roose bought Robb more time is false. Not marching that night, but marching another day and then camping another night only to fight a more traditional battle the next day where his forces were not exhausted would have bought Robb an extra day and his army would have fought better. Roose should have dug in on an elevated position when he came across one reasonably close to Tywins position, and hoped Tywin attacked. If he didn't then as soon as Tywin began running south after figuring it out he should have pursued him and held the all the crossing of the Trident/ crossed behind him so that he could attack in the rear if Tywin ever met Robb head on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsyao Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 23 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said: It's probably been said before but I'll say it again. Roose Bolton was picked to lead the North's infantry because he used cold cunning rather than brute force and unthinking courage. He drives his Northmen into a forced march to catch Tywin unawares. So he has the advantage of not being expected by an enemy which has thousands of horsemen, and which also outnumbers his own forces. Why not raid the Lannister camp at night?? Because these mighty "20 good men" only exist in some stupid TV show, in the novel, Tywin has patrols, outposts and outriders, there is no way he could be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsyao Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 19 hours ago, James Steller said: Exactly. The whole thing either makes Roose Bolton an idiot, or a traitor. Roose Bolton is no idiot, and he was not a traitor, not yet, battle of green folk makes perfect sense, Roose's mission was to engage Tywin, tie down the main force of the Westland, and though he was defeated, he conducted an orderly retreat, so that the main strength of his army remain intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floki of the Ironborn Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 4 hours ago, marsyao said: Roose Bolton is no idiot, and he was not a traitor, not yet, battle of green folk makes perfect sense, Roose's mission was to engage Tywin, tie down the main force of the Westland, and though he was defeated, he conducted an orderly retreat, so that the main strength of his army remain intact The main strength? He lost almost half the men under his command. He had over 17,000 when the battle began and when he takes Harrenhal he's got 10,000. Those are disastrous numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsyao Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 40 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said: The main strength? He lost almost half the men under his command. He had over 17,000 when the battle began and when he takes Harrenhal he's got 10,000. Those are disastrous numbers. He lost 5000 of 17000, and inflict at least 2000 casualities of Tywin's army, and he did accomplish his mission, tying down Tywin's main force so that Robb's force could surprise and defeat Jaime. And yes, main strength of his army were intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AegonBurzumOfTheLightsBane Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Its pretty much common knowledge every action Roose took in the war was an intentional and concentrated effort to bleed his northern rivals, and especially further into the war when it was clear he was planning to switch sides, hamstringing Robbs entire war effort. I mean ..Duskendale. Come on. He intentionally sent Glover and Tallhart troops into a massive trap getting them slaughtered for a militarily useless target with no strategic value whatsoever, and lays the loss at Robett Glovers feet saying he took the initiative, Robb is upset over this disaster and losing a third of his infantry, but never once suspects Roose of foul play, and this is MUCH more blatant than the orignal battle at the Green fork when he first started using these tactics.. PLUS, when returning to The Twins for the wedding, while crossing the Green Fork again, he had all the Bolton troops in the front and went slowly to intentionally let his rear guard get chewed up and lose a good deal of men. and left all the Stark loyalists to guard the river, so he only had Bolton and Karstark men with him for the RW. I think its naive, silly and kind of weird there are a few of you adamantly going on about how Robb or other Northern troops would know he intentionally flubbed the Green fork battle, when this is the most subtle of all his WOT5K turncloak shenanigans and his most blatant ones even directly up until meeting Robb at the Twins went entirely unnoticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aryagonnakill#2 Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, AegonBurzumOfTheLightsBane said: Its pretty much common knowledge every action Roose took in the war was an intentional and concentrated effort to bleed his northern rivals, and especially further into the war when it was clear he was planning to switch sides, hamstringing Robbs entire war effort. I mean ..Duskendale. Come on. He intentionally sent Glover and Tallhart troops into a massive trap getting them slaughtered for a militarily useless target with no strategic value whatsoever, and lays the loss at Robett Glovers feet saying he took the initiative, Robb is upset over this disaster and losing a third of his infantry, but never once suspects Roose of foul play, and this is MUCH more blatant than the orignal battle at the Green fork when he first started using these tactics.. PLUS, when returning to The Twins for the wedding, while crossing the Green Fork again, he had all the Bolton troops in the front and went slowly to intentionally let his rear guard get chewed up and lose a good deal of men. and left all the Stark loyalists to guard the river, so he only had Bolton and Karstark men with him for the RW. I think its naive, silly and kind of weird there are a few of you adamantly going on about how Robb or other Northern troops would know he intentionally flubbed the Green fork battle, when this is the most subtle of all his WOT5K turncloak shenanigans and his most blatant ones even directly up until meeting Robb at the Twins went entirely unnoticed. I am with you, but GRRM made his comments... he is not an expert at war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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