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2 minutes ago, tugela said:

Not everyone. To remake the right person they would have to bring back together blood that has been separated for thousands of years, and even then it would not always work (genetics has a 50:50 chance of happening, so the possibility of the right combo would be 25%, assuming both parents have a copy of the right genes). Two Daynes together could not do it, neither could two Targaryens. Marrying siblings doesn't help, other than improving the probability of preserving your half of the required genes. And not every Dayne or Targaryen (or progeny) would carry the right genes, some may not have it. The right genes could also be carried in apparently unrelated families that had a distant connection to one of the two houses through a maternal line, and that would produce the right person when combined. So, if Lyanna had a distant relative who was a Dayne woman, the Starks might have the right gene as well, carried by Lyanna. When combined with Rhaegar, an Azor Ahai was born. And a second Azor Ahai was created when Rhaegar had a child with Ashara (hypothetically).

So, we need the Dayne gene and the Targaryen gene both present to make the promised one.

Not true. No one said that AAR needs to be a Dayne or a Targaryen. We don't look for a DNA clone, there is nothing to suggest something like that. 

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2 hours ago, YOVMO said:

I don't think it is that easily verifiable. Jeor probably had no idea that Jon would ever stand before Lyanna, that Lyanna would be the Lady of House Mormont at the age of 10 and Lyanna would have been born after her mother, strangely enough, sent their ancestral sword to the wall. I would think that the NIghts Watch having their own sword would be more easily verifiable from Maester Aemon or the library. Jorah was off in exile in essos and ulikely to ever return. Jon was at the nights watch and unlikely to take place in a battle for winterfell or be in a position to go to house Mormont. It seems like it would be a very good story.

I think that Dany is more likely to be dead than anything (at least in the books) I am unclear about the show. I can never argue with logic that says Vary's has something up his sleeve, but the idea that Blackfyre is the sword of Targ kings, that Jon would be the rightful Targ heir at this point and that blackfyre has a sordid history with regard to Aegon IV of legitimizing bastards leading to ugliness and war are just a few of the things....not to mention that blackfyre is described physically to be distinct from other VS swords in that it was darker and smokier in color and longclaw described the same way.

I am willing to concede that there is some tinfoil hattery going on here, but no more than any other theory involving the location of blackfyre (something GRRM said we would in fact see) and a lot less than others.

I just don't see this. Jorah wielding blackfyre wouldn't make any sense. Dany having it would make some sense, but not really. The sword is called The Sword of The King. It is a bastard sword that has been used to legitimize Targaryen bastards. Jon is the rightful Targ king (assuming R+L=J) who is a bastard who will be raised up as a Targaryen. The swords are similar. Jorah's story seems odd and the last first hand account of the sword, That of Ser Eustice, has it with Bloodraven who later became LC of the nights watch. Bloodraven having an intimate connection to crowing a targ king over a blackfyre pretender. There is so much here.

Possible again. I put nothing past Varys. That said, I do not believe fAegon is legit. I think he will wind up with a fake blackfyre which will possibly be shattered in a fight proving it no real VS sword. This goes into my belief that Arthur Dayne is alive and well and will leave Dawn to Edric, knight him, name him the new sword of the morning, fill him (and the reader) in on R+J=L before dying in the stormlands at Blackhaven

I think that whatever happens with fAegon will be incredibly tricky. It will take a lot of cagey plot to get out of that bit without it getting hokey. I have faith in GRRM that he will do it. Agreed that it won't be too soon whatever it is. Might not actually see that the end of that story until ADOS. It can't be rushed and there is a ton of meat on the bones.

1. I would bet good money that Varys has Blackfyre.

2. I don't see any internal consistency in your logic. If Longclaw was Blackfyre, Aemon knows the secret and has kept the secret. It would be a lot easier to say it was a NW sword and for Aemon to put something about it in the library. Or claim the records were lost - they are a mess. 

3. It's still not clear WHY Mormont would lie about the sword. If it's Blackfyre and Bloodraven brought it to the NW, to keep it from rebels, then so be it. Just rename it and say it's a NW sword, not some bogus Mormont sword. Presumably the records at Bear Island would be in better shape to verify the sword's provenance than the ones at the Wall. 

4. It was Maege Mormont who sent Longclaw to the Wall, not Lyanna. 

5.  I honestly don't recall any mention of Longclaw being noted as darker than any other VS sword. And if so, I would think Jon would be as good of a judge as Sam, probably having held Ice a number of times. I am not sure Sam held Heartsbane. Longclaw is noted as dark, like any VS sword. 

6. Dany won't wield Blackfyre. She isn't trained. She's tiny. It's a big sword. It would be weird. I think she would designate it to Jorah as the LC of her Queensguard. I agree she is probably going to die. That doesn't prevent her from acquiring more swords in the mean time.  

6. If Bittersteel doesn't have the sword, why would he lie about it? He knows Bloodraven would just call BS on him and show the sword. Seems unlikely that Bittersteel didn't have the sword and if he did lose it, then why didn't Ser Eustace mention that? Maybe Bloodraven glamored it from him or something, sure. Still seems unlikely. 

7. Jeor seems pretty unaware of his raven.

I agree everything you said is possible. Just seems like too nice of a little bow for ASOIAF.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, tugela said:

The kingsguard would not have been tasked with protecting her if it was Arthurs child.

We don't know they are protecting Arthur's child. We don't know if they are protecting the child per se at all. If Lyanna is aRhaegar's political hostage (as both Sansa and Arya have been, and even Jon has been), they'd want to hold onto her. Keep her in place.

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They would have killed Arthur instead, because (1) Lyanna was Rhaegars;

But, Rhaegar's what? Hostage? Paramour? Leverage? We do NOT know how she ended up with him and his kingsguard. Only that the official story makes Baelish roll his eyes at Sansa. 

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and (2) Kingsguard were supposed to remain single and celebate as part of their oaths.

Arys Oakheart's book convo with Arianne makes it VERY clear that it's well known that Kingsguard keep paramours. The show makes it clear that the vows of celibacy are winked at, too.

Jon's experience (in the book and in the show) with the Night's Watch brotherhood vows and Ygritte and his reinstatement make it clear that the rules are hardly cut and dried. He ends up Lord Commander, despite everyone's knowing about Ygritte.

And, we have the SSM from Martin that says the Kingsguard have to obey Rhaegar if he gives them orders. 

So, until we get more info from the books and/or show re: exactly what the Kingsguard are doing, they could absolutely have been there guarding Lyanna as a hostage. Her getting pregnant by Arthur might not have been Rhaegar's plan at all. But he might still want to keep her.

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Just now, ErasmusF said:

1. I would bet good money that Varys has Blackfyre.

Like I said, I won't bet against Varys. That is for sure.

Just now, ErasmusF said:

2. I don't see any internal consistency in your logic. If Longclaw was Blackfyre, Aemon knows the secret and has kept the secret. It would be a lot easier to say it was a NW sword and for Aemon to put something about it in the library. Or claim the records were lost - they are a mess. 

Why would you assume Aemon knew? Maybe no one knew and Bloodraven has used psi ability to let Mormont know. THe crow keeps landing on the hilt and saying "king king king" a lot going on. I am not saying it is clear and definitely, I certainly wouldn't bet money on it, but there is something here.

Just now, ErasmusF said:

3. It's still not clear WHY Mormont would lie about the sword. If it's Blackfyre and Bloodraven brought it to the NW, to keep it from rebels, then so be it. Just rename it and say it's a NW sword, not some bogus Mormont sword. Presumably the records at Bear Island would be in better shape to verify the sword's provenance than the ones at the Wall. 

There would need to be an explanation on why no one has wielded it including bloodraven himself. The sword is meant to be wielded by the king. Jon is not ready for this knowledge. If you think of Jon's position in AGOT when Mormont gives him the blade and the story, the idea that Jon would ever see Bear Island isn't even kind of feasible.

Just now, ErasmusF said:

4. It was Maege Mormont who sent Longclaw to the Wall, not Lyanna. 

Sorry if I misspoke. The point remains. Why would Maege send longclaw to Jeor. If Longclaw is the ancestral Mormont sword and if Jeor has renounced his name and titles and claim to bear island as well as swore to have no other children. The sword, if an ancestral sword, belongs with the lord or lady of bear island, not with the lord commander of the nights watch and even if it made sense to send it to him why never use it and even if that made sense why in the world would he break a 500 year Mormont family tradition of passing the sword to the head of the house to give it to jon? It isn't like he thinks house Mormont is going to be extinct. It isn't like he is a man who doesn't care about tradition.

Just now, ErasmusF said:

5.  I honestly don't recall any mention of Longclaw being noted as darker than any other VS sword. And if so, I would think Jon would be as good of a judge as Sam, probably having held Ice a number of times. I am not sure Sam held Heartsbane. Longclaw is noted as dark, like any VS sword. 

“Jon unsheathed Longclaw and showed it to them, turning it this way and that so they could admire it. The bastard blade glittered in the pale sunlight, dark and deadly.”

-Jon VIII, AGOT

 

“Jon had pressed Longclaw into Sam's hand. He let him feel the lightness, the balance, had him turn the blade so that ripples gleamed in the smoke-dark metal. "Valyrian steel," he said, "spell-forged and razor-sharp, nigh on indestructible.”

-Samwell I, AFFC

“Blackfyre should be somewhat larger and darker than the other two, and its design needs to suggest flames.” -SSM 04/06/04


There are a couple more. Subtle but there. This took 2 seconds to find via a google search.

 

Just now, ErasmusF said:

6. Dany won't wield Blackfyre. She isn't trained. She's tiny. It's a big sword. It would be weird. I think she would designate it to Jorah as the LC of her Queensguard. I agree she is probably going to die. That doesn't prevent her from acquiring more swords in the mean time.  

That a non Targaryen would wield Blackfyre as a Queensguard to dany while there is a rightful Targaryen king with a better claim alive seems to me unreasonable.

 

Afterall

 

“….Blackfyre, the sword of Aegon the Conquerer, the blade that every Targaryen king had wielded since the Conquest…..

…The rightful king, Daemon Blackfyre. The King Who Bore the Sword….”

-The Sworn Sword

Just now, ErasmusF said:

6. If Bittersteel doesn't have the sword, why would he lie about it? He knows Bloodraven would just call BS on him and show the sword. Seems unlikely that Bittersteel didn't have the sword and if he did lose it, then why didn't Ser Eustace mention that? Maybe Bloodraven glamored it from him or something, sure. Still seems unlikely. 

I don't know. The fact remains that Bittersteel named Daemon II king and Daemon II went to battle without blackfyre which bittersteel supposedly had.

“He does not bear the sword! If he were his father's son, Bittersteel would have armed him with Blackfyre.”

Lord Butterwell, The Mystery Knight, talking about the alleged Daemon II Blackfyre at the tourney at Whitewalls

Just now, ErasmusF said:

7. Jeor seems pretty unaware of his raven.

There is no way there isn't something up with that raven. Even if everything I typed here turns out to be dead wrong, which it could be, there is simply no way that that raven isn't more than it seems. Corn!

Just now, ErasmusF said:

I agree everything you said is possible. Just seems like too nice of a little bow for ASOIAF.  

 

 

Agree that the bow seems too nice. I think the bow gets better when you realize that jon bites it, never knows he has blackfyre, never becomes king and it is all for naught. Who knows. It can all be wrong. However, I simply can't see Jorah or any non targ wielding BF

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Oh you guys and your crazy sword theories. This is the board where the show is discussed, remember? They showed Dawn in that scene (and the earlier ToJ scene) for one or both of two reasons:

1. fanservice

2. It will be the evidence (found in the Winterfell crypts) of Jon's parentage

Everything else is clearly too complicated and convoluted for this TV series.

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4 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

nWhat I mean is that by your logic everyone with a drop of Dayne blood is a canditate for being AAR and I believe that is obvious that it doesn't work like that.

It is not blood as such, it is genetic heritage. If they have the magic genes it will be passed down to their offspring. As long as the gene is passed down, the recipient would be as pure as the person first holding it.

There will be two genes being passed down, since chromosomes come as pairs. Lets call them type A and type B. You get one copy from your mother, the other from your father. Likewise when you have children, they will get one copy from you and one from your spouse. If you have both copies, your children will get one or the other. That is how the two blood lines from the original Azor Ahai split. One child had one, and another had the other. Many generations later over thousands of years these two genes continue to be passed down through their offspring, until one day, two of those offspring mate and have a child, who will receive a copy of type A from one parent, and a copy of type B from the other. This child will have the same magical combination that the original Azor Ahai had, and will become the new Azor Ahai.

One of those children of the original Azor Ahai became the first Dayne. The other one became the first Targaryen. Because the Daynes came to Westeros at the dawn of time, they have not been in potential contact with the Targaryen gene until Aegon invaded. And since then the magic combination has not yet happened. And finally now, in Westeros, those two blood lines meet again and combine in the right way. Remember, not all Daynes will have the magic genes, only some will, and not all Targaryens will have the complimentary gene, only some will. There will be houses with different names who may also have the gene, because it came to them through a maternal line (this is how some Starks have the Dayne gene). And even those who do have them, if they mate, the chances of a child having both copies is still 1 in 4.

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2 hours ago, Ser Hyle said:

Oh you guys and your crazy sword theories. This is the board where the show is discussed, remember? They showed Dawn in that scene (and the earlier ToJ scene) for one or both of two reasons:

1. fanservice

2. It will be the evidence (found in the Winterfell crypts) of Jon's parentage

Everything else is clearly too complicated and convoluted for this TV series.

This.

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11 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

I'm not saying that at all. Of course they would, and it's possible that Ned will stop by Starfall on his way North with Howland, the woman from the ToJ that presumably was considered as Wylla, and infant Jon.

I think, however, that you're conflating textual incidents from the books with the show. Has Ashara ever been mentioned in the show? Has Blackfyre, or even Dark Sister? Not that I can recall, but in-show has certainly established the Sword of the Morning's greatsword-- even if only as a decoration stuck into the ground during the confrontation and at the foot of the Lyanna's deathbed. 

With it's name as symbol, Dawn would be an ideal weapon for Jon once he's fully realized [again, in-show] and insofar as flames flickering along the blade for added wow-ism or whatever, they could go there as well since Beric established that his resurrected blood can ignite steel [in S3 or S4 if I recall correctly.]

--- 

Regarding YOVMO's speculation into Longclaw, that's an interesting discussion that I've had quite recently with some friends on Facebook. It's all pretty odd, the history around Mormont's taking the Black and possession of Longclaw-- in the books, mind.  

Well, Ashara was mentioned at least once in Season 1 (by Cersei, when Ned confronted her about her and Jaimie), but I agree with you here - no one in the show remembers her, only book readers. On the other hand, I have similar impression about Dawn. Show didn't even try to tell us how good the sword was. They mentioned Arthur's greatness but did they mention the sword which is even greater than it's wielder? I find it hard to believe that suddenly they will go "hello Jon, here is a great sword which is even better than your Longclaw. You are now officially The Sword Of The Morning."

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Dawn was extremely important in the scene but not because Jon is actually a Dayne or anything of that sort. He is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. Dawn was important because, in the words of Mel,

"When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again"

Dawn was forged from a star and was covered in blood. May be tin foil, but that's my theory and I'm sticking to it :D

 

 

 

Oh and while I'm here...... THE KING IN THE NORTH!!!!!!

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The star that was bleeding was Arthur Dayne. Their house sigil is a star. They would be "stars" just like the Targaryens are "dragons", the Starks "wolves", the Lannisters "lions" etc.

The prophecy does not require the sword.

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2 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

So by your logic every Dayne child should had started training to become AAR. I don't think that what you say it's possible. 

Nobody "trained" to become Azor Ahai. Azor Ahai will be reborn when the two proper sets of genes combine again. There is no "training" involved.

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10 hours ago, Nami said:

This.

No. It will be evidence of nothing. Everyone already knows that Ned killed Arthur Dayne. It is common knowledge. They all know that Dayne was guarding Lyanna as well. What they don't know is that Jon is Lyanna's baby. The sword does not prove that. That he might have took Dawn as war booty would be perfectly normal. It will do absolutely nothing to prove Jon's heritage.

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4 minutes ago, tugela said:

Nobody "trained" to become Azor Ahai. Azor Ahai will be reborn when the two proper sets of genes combine again. There is no "training" involved.

My point was that it's not logic to expect that because someone was born in a family his reincarnation will be born in the same family and if it was like that I don't think that the Daynes would had been in the state we see them in the books.

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Azor Ahai will not come from some random person. The books are pretty clear about that. The focus of those following the prophecy is pretty specific on certain individuals precisely BECAUSE of their heritage.

There will have to be a plot explanation as to why it should to one of those families right now, and it will likely be that Targaryen blood is half the equation, while the other half comes from a different direction. The only other family mentioned in the books that is both ancient and has unique characteristics are the Daynes. And the fact the those unique characteristics coincides with the Targaryens, even though they could not be related for the last 10000 years, suggests that they are in fact that other half of the equation.

Not only that, we see individuals from this family popping up in the story for no apparent reason with regularity, which implies that the author thinks that they are special as well.

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On 6/28/2016 at 3:34 PM, tugela said:

Casting the younger Daynes will be necessary for a completely different reason. There is strong reason to believe that Daenerys is the daughter of Rhaegar and Ashara, and the writers would need some mechanic to introduce those ideas into the TV show. In the book that was done by Ser Barristan, but he is dead and so cannot do it on the show. They would need a different mechanism. Using the current generation of Daynes would allow them to do it.

We do know that Ned goes to Starfall after ToJ, and while he is there Ashara disappears under mysterious circumstances after recently giving birth to a daughter. We know that Daenerys is so similar to Ashara that she could easily be taken for her daughter. We also know that the Daynes are on very friendly terms with Ned, even though he killed their heir and (apparently) was responsible for Ashara killing herself. So there is something else going on there, and it has nothing to do with Jon. While these things are made clear in the book, it has not happened on the show, so they would need a different mechanism to do it.

Arthur wasn't a Dayne heir, once he took the Kings Guard vows.

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On ‎29‎/‎06‎/‎2016 at 0:05 AM, Sly Wren said:

Robert hates Rhaegar because he thinks Rhaegar stole and raped Lyanna. Even if it came out that Lyanna and Rhaegar were lovers, Robert would likely still hate the man enough to kill.

Do you really think Robert would be any happier if it was only Rhaegar's bestie (Arthur) and not Rhaegar himself who had sex with Lyanna? That he'd be all fine with it as long as whomever father Jon wasn't a Targaryen?

Or would he just also hate the Daynes with a homicidal wrath? And Jon would be in just as much danger.

You have got to be kidding? How many bastards did Robert have? I think that he would still hate Jon, but then Jon would not be a threat to him and possibly leave him be if Ned got involved. Ned could argue the case otherwise risk starting another war. Rhaegar's child is a different story though, he is 100% a threat to the Robert Rule as King. Ned would have no say in the matter, Jon would be history. Plus Robert was focused on the Targarean's, he hated them to the Bone.

You have your view and I have mine.

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5 hours ago, Drago said:

You have got to be kidding? How many bastards did Robert have? I think that he would still hate Jon, but then Jon would not be a threat to him and possibly leave him be if Ned got involved. Ned could argue the case otherwise risk starting another war.

If that were the case, why does the show make a point of Robert's wanting to kill every Targaryen "for what they did to" Lyanna? Or why is Ned warning Cersei that she and her children must get as far as they can or Robert's wrath will follow them?

As Jaime's bastards, they are little threat to Robert's reign, but Ned still warns her to run fast and far. But, on the show, Ned specifically says he will not have Cersei's children's blood on his hands and thus he will help them escape Robert. 

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Rhaegar's child is a different story though, he is 100% a threat to the Robert Rule as King. Ned would have no say in the matter, Jon would be history. Plus Robert was focused on the Targarean's, he hated them to the Bone

Very true. But Robert does not hate Targaryens for threatening that reign. His hatred started when they took Lyanna. The woman he loved. And raped and murdered her. That's the source of his unending wrath and misery. Neither books nor show are subtle on that point.

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You have your view and I have mine.

All fair. :cheers:

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