What the Show tells us about the Northern storyline in the books.

[Free Northman Reborn]

So, no matter how much the Show has stuffed up, it is nevertheless true that it is working towards some of the major plot destinations that Martin originally had in mind. I am particularly interested in its implications for the Northern storyline.

The fact that Jon gets crowned King in the North is one such major revelation. Now, I am the first to admit that the Show made a total hash of it, and that his crowning in the Show is not at all believable, but if we accept that D&D use crude shortcuts to reach the destination that Martin had in mind, then one has to ask the question: Would they deviate from Jon's book storyline on such a major issue as him becoming King in the North?

In my view they discarded Robb's will, which would have achieved the same result far more plausibly in the books, and instead made his ascension to the Northern throne more contestable for the sake of giving the Sansa-Littlefinger storyline some more mileage next Season.

What is interesting though is that there IS a King in the North again, rather than a mere Stark Lord of Winterfell. It seems, as I have argued for years, that the North will not be content with being vassals to the Iron Throne again. It would be quite a departure - for no apparent reason - for the Showrunners to replace the Lord of Winterfell with a King in the North unless it was intended as such by Martin.

In essence, I believe that Rickon was sacrificed for the purpose of giving Sansa a storyline in the North, which she does not have in the books. In the books Rickon will still arrive, but only after Jon has taken the Throne.  In any case, it is also interesting that the theme of the North returning to power under the Starks, and being a force to be reckoned with is very much emphasized in the Show. This is far from a situation - as some have proposed - where the North largely becomes a desolate wasteland of famine struck refugees, desperately awaiting Daenerys's arrival as their Saviour. Instead, the North is set up as very much a second centre of power to the Iron Throne in the South. We effectively have the two halves of Westeros - the Queen in the South, and the King in the North. With the North being supported by the Vale and the soon to be liberated Riverlands.

Thus presenting quite neatly the two fairly equal powerblocs that I have proposed, with Jon occupying one centre of power and Daenerys the other, come the last book.

[Direwight]

I don't doubt that Jon could be crowned KitN in the books sometime before the end. I'm just pretty sure it doesn't happen in TWoW like on the show: first Stannis fails, then Jon gets resurrected by Melisandre, marches on Winterfell with wildlings and a few northmen, succeeds, and gets elected KitN because he won.

No matter how Jon comes back, he can't just walk out of the NW and not be commonly seen as a deserter. That's going to be quite a tricky thing to avoid, assuming he doesn't just stay in Ghost or otherwise keep a low profile. Or maybe the whole NW as an institution is gone by that point and that's why no one minds. Or maybe Rickon becomes KitN, takes a backseat somewhere safe for the rest of the story with Jon basically as his hand/regent.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, Direwight said:

I don't doubt that Jon could be crowned KitN in the books sometime before the end. I'm just pretty sure it doesn't happen in TWoW like on the show: first Stannis fails, then Jon gets resurrected by Melisandre, marches on Winterfell with wildlings and a few northmen, succeeds, and gets elected KitN because he won.

No matter how Jon comes back, he can't just walk out of the NW and not be commonly seen as a deserter. That's going to be quite a tricky thing to avoid, assuming he doesn't just stay in Ghost or otherwise keep a low profile. Or maybe the whole NW as an institution is gone by that point and that's why no one minds. Or maybe Rickon becomes KitN, takes a backseat somewhere safe for the rest of the story with Jon basically as his hand/regent.

Indeed. That's why Robb's will is crucial in that Robb's intention with it was to release Jon from his vows. The resurrection clearly will not be common knowledge throughout the realm, so it will only serve the purpose of releasing Jon from his vows in his own and in his fellow Night's Watch member's minds. But for Jon to be judged released from his vows by the entire North Robb's will is needed to legitimize him and gain his release from the new Lord Commander - whoever that may be.

The Show just skipped this and made everyone ignore the fact that Jon was Lord Commander of the Watch one day, and a free agent the next. This is of course utterly non-sensical.

[Lord Varys]

Well, the power house thing is really crap. They only defeated Ramsay with the help of the Vale in the show, and there is no reason to assume that they have all that many new troops. And the King of the North story will resolve itself in the books with the marriage of Dany and Jon Snow. Which most likely will take place next season.

The Vale had something to do in the show eventually, and they pitifully stitched their nonsensical Sansa-Littlefinger-Ramsay story together.

If the Vale joins Aegon in the books then this could not possibly happen in a show in which Aegon is cut. Just as in a show where Aegon is cut somebody had to sit on the Iron Throne after Tommen. They show made that person Cersei. That doesn't mean she'll ever become Queen Regnant in the books.

The show drastically reduced the scope and the plots of the books and thus stuff had to recombined differently.

The Northern plot should be spectacularly different. We have a lot of potential for really interesting plots up there:

1. The unresolved stuff at the Wall. Potential for battles and real violence. Potential for further mistrust and backstabbing. The dangling threads of Hardhome, the Weeper's coming attack, the corpses in the ice cells (what if they actually become wights and break out?), Cregan Karstark, and the Alys-Sigorn plot (how much worth is that alliance if Jon Snow is dead?).

2. Rickon on Skagos and whatever is going on in Davos' story.

3. The battles at the lake and at Winterfell and everything connected to that. What's going to happen to Roose/Ramsay, Lord Wyman, Lady Dustin, Stannis, etc.

4. The ultimate fate of Asha and Theon. Not to forget the Iron Bank plot, Massey's mission, and Jeyne Poole's eventual fate.

5. The huge question mark that is Shireen's eventual death, the fate/meaning of Patchface (Melisandre is not afraid of him for no reason!).

6. And most importantly, of course, the Bran mystery. I think Bran will actually remain in that cave but intervene via the weirwoods, the ravens, and through other ways at various points in the story. People might even revive the good old weirwood sacrifices (hello there, Ramsay, who could easily end up being sacrificed to Bran by his new priest and fervent follower, Theon Greyjoy).

It is complete mess to figure out what is going to happen there in comparison to the show. Could Jon Snow become a king of sorts? Perhaps. King in the North? Not very likely in my opinion.

I don't operate under the assumption that Rickon is going to die in the books because that was just a whole stupid plot point to give Jon a version of the Pink Letter scenario.

Jon marching against Ramsay/Roose in any scenario in the books makes not much sense, either. He isn't going to be able to have more men than Stannis already had down there, and the Winterfell issue will be settled in the coming battle. 

[The Drunkard]

The only thing I think we can take away is that Jon will eventually lead the north.

The Boltons: I'm pretty confident Stannis will deal with them and unite the north initially. If he loses his army won't survive the rout, and then if it were to follow the show storyline Jon would need to be revived, deal with whatever's happening at the Wall, then go on a major recruitment drive across the north (and have it be impossibly lucrative given Stannis tapped a large part of it), and all the while the Boltons need to be inexplicably letting this happen. So I see Stannis winning, Rickon being his Stark claimant, the IB loan giving him the resources required to be a relatively large player again, and then he'll try to be Azor Ahai and hold back the Others until Dany slays him.

Rickon: with Stannis dead he's unnecessary, so they just used him as emotional fodder for Jon.

The Wall: presumably it'll be much more complicated. The Weeper has been talked about since Mance was wrecked, Melisandre and the queens men are still at Castle Black, Cotter Pyke's "dead things in the water" has yet to be explained. My guess is that the NW will be effectively destroyed before Jon returns so he won't need to abandon it, and he won't need Robb's will to get him out of it.

Littlefinger and the Vale: his plan seems much more big-picture. Most of westeros is or will be war-torn, and while the Lords Declarant have been selling their grain he's been buying it up and hoarding it so that when famine really hits he'll have a big portion of the kingdom dependent on him. I don't know how he'll leverage that but I can't see him shoving his head up Sansa's ass and throwing his men at Winterfell for her.

Jon himself: I'm guessing he'll either be dead for much longer than what he was, doing something beyond the Wall, or some combination of these things. Maybe he'll go to Hardhome, who knows.

[Free Northman Reborn]

57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the power house thing is really crap. They only defeated Ramsay with the help of the Vale in the show, and there is no reason to assume that they have all that many new troops. And the King of the North story will resolve itself in the books with the marriage of Dany and Jon Snow. Which most likely will take place next season.

The Vale had something to do in the show eventually, and they pitifully stitched their nonsensical Sansa-Littlefinger-Ramsay story together.

If the Vale joins Aegon in the books then this could not possibly happen in a show in which Aegon is cut. Just as in a show where Aegon is cut somebody had to sit on the Iron Throne after Tommen. They show made that person Cersei. That doesn't mean she'll ever become Queen Regnant in the books.

The show drastically reduced the scope and the plots of the books and thus stuff had to recombined differently.

The Northern plot should be spectacularly different. We have a lot of potential for really interesting plots up there:

1. The unresolved stuff at the Wall. Potential for battles and real violence. Potential for further mistrust and backstabbing. The dangling threads of Hardhome, the Weeper's coming attack, the corpses in the ice cells (what if they actually become wights and break out?), Cregan Karstark, and the Alys-Sigorn plot (how much worth is that alliance if Jon Snow is dead?).

2. Rickon on Skagos and whatever is going on in Davos' story.

3. The battles at the lake and at Winterfell and everything connected to that. What's going to happen to Roose/Ramsay, Lord Wyman, Lady Dustin, Stannis, etc.

4. The ultimate fate of Asha and Theon. Not to forget the Iron Bank plot, Massey's mission, and Jeyne Poole's eventual fate.

5. The huge question mark that is Shireen's eventual death, the fate/meaning of Patchface (Melisandre is not afraid of him for no reason!).

6. And most importantly, of course, the Bran mystery. I think Bran will actually remain in that cave but intervene via the weirwoods, the ravens, and through other ways at various points in the story. People might even revive the good old weirwood sacrifices (hello there, Ramsay, who could easily end up being sacrificed to Bran by his new priest and fervent follower, Theon Greyjoy).

It is complete mess to figure out what is going to happen there in comparison to the show. Could Jon Snow become a king of sorts? Perhaps. King in the North? Not very likely in my opinion.

I don't operate under the assumption that Rickon is going to die in the books because that was just a whole stupid plot point to give Jon a version of the Pink Letter scenario.

Jon marching against Ramsay/Roose in any scenario in the books makes not much sense, either. He isn't going to be able to have more men than Stannis already had down there, and the Winterfell issue will be settled in the coming battle. 

Lord Varys

While you and I are on the same page with regard to many of the inventions that made it into the Show storyline, you also choose to view many of the book alternatives to these Show plots in a highly subjective manner that suits the narrative structure that you would prefer to happen.

Just a few plausible alternatives to your narrative changes the course of the story entirely. For example:

The Vale does not join Aegon's doomed cause, but instead serves the purpose of playing the "Rebuilding of the North" role that Martin foreshadowed with Sansa's snowcastle. So while Sansa does not ride North with the Vale's troops, she supports the Northern cause by supplying food through Gulltown and White Harbor, and by forming a military alliance with them.

The obvious signs that the Riverlands are about to be liberated are fulfilled, and they reswear their allegiance to the King in the North. Alternatively the Tully heir becomes an independent ally of the King in the North, being related to the Stark ruler, whether that Tully be Edmure, or Rickon/Bran as joint heir to the North and the Riverlands both through Ned and Catelyn, and through Robb as King of the North and the Riverlands.

The situation with the Weeper and other wildlings North of the Wall is resolved by the Others wiping them all out.

Massey and Jeyne Pool arrives at the Wall just in time for Jon's resurrection and get caught up in Jon's plot thereafter.

Rickon arrives and Jon takes up his cause as his regent and military commander. The Stark cause is then a rallying cry for the lords of the North.

Stannis loses the battle of Winterfell and falls back to the Wall in despair, burning Shirreen fairly soon to tick that outstanding plot event that you feel is imperative to happen. In fact, Stannis could even flee straight from the Battle of Ice - which seems to already be in the past before Jon's death, and thus arrive at the Wall fairly soon after Jon's assassination, thereby making his burning of Shirreen coincide with Jon's resurrection, closing that plot thread quite neatly.

In short, there are many ways the story can unfold to arrive at a strong North, united under House Stark and allied with the Vale and the Riverlands, that is completely plausible and even likely, and which negates a lot of what you believe has to happen.

So while the Show clearly went off on a tangent, the solution to the Show mistakes need not be the narrative you describe.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Vale does not join Aegon's doomed cause, but instead serves the purpose of playing the "Rebuilding of the North" role that Martin foreshadowed with Sansa's snowcastle.

Lord Robert destroyed the snow castle, did he not?

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So while Sansa does not ride North with the Vale's troops, she supports the Northern cause by supplying food through Gulltown and White Harbor, and by forming a military alliance with them.

And she would do that when exactly and in what capacity? Sansa is right now still Alayne Stone. Even if we assume she is publicly revealed to be Sansa Stark in the very next Sansa chapter how is that going to give her any power? She would first have to marry Harrold Hardyng and Lord Robert (or even Littlefinger) would have to die for that.

More importantly, she would first have to contact the people in the North - but would she even want to work with Stannis? I don't think so. The Northmen themselves won't reach out to her for obvious reason. This whole thing is a pipe dream alliance unless you use the teleportation devices of the show.

Then look at my side of the coin:

Bronze Yohn Royce and other Lords of the Vale apparently wanted to ally themselves with Robb Stark. Now the Lannister claim to the Iron Throne (remember, the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn!) is challenged by Prince Aegon and Sansa also should have every interest to publicly clear her name and cast down Cersei, Tommen, and even the Tyrells (who used her as pawn in their game). She also has every reason to want to avenge her dead family members (Ned, Catelyn, and Robb).

Aegon's arrival will force the Vale to make a decision. And Littlefinger (and perhaps even Sansa at this point) want the Iron Throne, not Winterfell and half of the Realm.

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The obvious signs that the Riverlands are about to be liberated are fulfilled, and they reswear their allegiance to the King in the North. Alternatively the Tully heir becomes an independent ally of the King in the North, being related to the Stark ruler, whether that Tully be Edmure, or Rickon/Bran as joint heir to the North and the Riverlands both through Ned and Catelyn, and through Robb as King of the North and the Riverlands.

The Tullys are very unlikely to ever work with Jon Snow. The Blackfish misinterpreted Jon's rise to the position of Lord Commander of the Night's Watch as him having become a Lannister toady. A not so wrong interpretation from his point of view.

The decisions in that field will be made by the undead Catelyn. She is calling the shots because she is magically revived zombie. And she despises Jon Snow and is not going to strike a deal with him.

More importantly, what could the incentive of the average Riverlander be to join the North again? The North cannot protect them from Aegon and his allies, especially not if he allies himself with the Martells. The same goes for a King Euron. The North would also not be of help against such a guy. The Riverlanders would want their hostages back, revenge against the Freys, and then peace and quiet in winter. And they are not going to get that if they give the new King on the Iron Throne a new reason for war.

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The situation with the Weeper and other wildlings North of the Wall is resolved by the Others wiping them all out.

Plot convenience. The Weeper has recently cut out the eyes of a bunch of rangers. He is not done yet. And as things stand there is no reason to believe that the Others are already close to the Wall with vast wight armies. If that had been the case Val would never have had any success nor would Tormund and his people have ever reached the Wall. In fact, in such a scenario the very idea of the march to Hardhome would have been dismissed as ridiculous by anyone involved and not just Selyse (if Tormund and his people had been constantly troubled by wights they would have shown no inclination to ever go out there).

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Massey and Jeyne Pool arrives at the Wall just in time for Jon's resurrection and get caught up in Jon's plot thereafter.

I guess they will arrive some time thereafter.

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Rickon arrives and Jon takes up his cause as his regent and military commander. The Stark cause is then a rallying cry for the lords of the North.

Could be. We'll have to wait and see. Not sure however why Jon Snow should play that part and not some Skagosi (who has taken on Rickon as a foster son or something like that), Davos/Stannis (if they are still alive), or even Lord Wyman (or the new Lord Manderly, Wylis, who should have been briefed by his father about the plan).

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Stannis loses the battle of Winterfell and falls back to the Wall in despair, burning Shirreen fairly soon to tick that outstanding plot event that you feel is imperative to happen.

That is not my feeling. This plot point is what the one thing George actually commented on. You and many other people seem to want to squeeze this event in at this or that point in your vision of things, but the evidence suggests that this is not going to happen soon. If it was, then Shireen and Melisandre would have gone with Stannis.

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In fact, Stannis could even flee straight from the Battle of Ice - which seems to already be in the past before Jon's death, and thus arrive at the Wall fairly soon after Jon's assassination, thereby making his burning of Shirreen coincide with Jon's resurrection, closing that plot thread quite neatly.

That is just crap, I'm sorry. Why the hell should Stannis burn his daughter while they hang out at the Wall? What could he possibly accomplish by that? You have to have a reason for a such a sacrifice, something that makes it believable. Nobody would ever burn Shireen to resurrect Jon Snow (or even Stannis Baratheon himself) because them dying would disprove that they are special.

That is also why Jon's resurrection in the books most likely will be an accident - at least the resurrection of his body. The very same accident that brought Beric Dondarrion back to life.

I don't know how and why Shireen is going to die, but the scenario that Stannis will be the one who commands it is pretty much a given, I think. But the context is completely unclear.

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In short, there are many ways the story can unfold to arrive at a strong North, united under House Stark and allied with the Vale and the Riverlands, that is completely plausible and even likely, and which negates a lot of what you believe has to happen.

Only the impossible in not about to happen. But a lot of stuff is possible and won't happen.

All I feel right now comfortable predicting is that Stannis and his Northmen will end up on top in the Winterfell dilemma. They will have the Manderlys defecting, and possibly the Umbers and other Northmen, too. If Roose dies in Winterfell Lady Dustin and the Ryswells will defect, too. The Freys are already done. Stannis also has the advantage that he has nothing to lose. He has to win or die. And a lot of his clansmen feel the same way. That is a big advantage in battle.

We also have Bran preparing something as per Theon 1.

The evidence for this whole thing is the Shireen thing (Stannis has to survive to be able to sacrifice his own daughter) as well as the fact that George told not so long ago (I think in the long NAB post in the beginning of the year) that he had recently worked on a Theon chapter. Considering that Theon 1 seems to be both polished and very much finished (it was supposed to be in ADwD at one point) I doubt that he worked on that chapter again. Which means Theon is both likely not to be sacrificed to the tree nor dying during the coming battle.

And if he doesn't die then there is a good chance that Stannis will win eventually, because there is no way Theon is going to survive if Stannis and his men are defeated.

In addition, Stannis also made it clear that he would not flee again. He either wins the coming battles or he dies. I don't see him changing his mind on that one.

However, aside from that the future plot elements are completely dependent on what happens at Winterfell. Are both Boltons killed? How many men die on both sides? How is the weather? And so on.

[Free Northman Reborn]

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Lord Robert destroyed the snow castle, did he not?

And she would do that when exactly and in what capacity? Sansa is right now still Alayne Stone. Even if we assume she is publicly revealed to be Sansa Stark in the very next Sansa chapter how is that going to give her any power? She would first have to marry Harrold Hardyng and Lord Robert (or even Littlefinger) would have to die for that.

More importantly, she would first have to contact the people in the North - but would she even want to work with Stannis? I don't think so. The Northmen themselves won't reach out to her for obvious reason. This whole thing is a pipe dream alliance unless you use the teleportation devices of the show.

Then look on my side of the coin:

Bronze Yohn Royce and other Lords of the Vale apparently wanted to ally themselves with Robb Stark. Now the Lannister claim to the Iron Throne (remember, the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn!) is challenged by Prince Aegon and Sansa also should have every interest to publicly clear her name and cast down Cersei, Tommen, and even the Tyrells (who used her as pawn in their game). She also has every reason to want to avenge her dead family members (Ned, Catelyn, and Robb).

Aegon arrival will force the Vale to make a decision. And Littlefinger (and perhaps even Sansa at this point) want the Iron Throne, not Winterfell and half of the Realm.

The Tullys are very unlikely to ever work with Jon Snow. The Blackfish misinterpreted Jon's rise to the position of Lord Commander of the Night's Watch as him having become a Lannister toady. A not so wrong interpretation from his point of view.

The decisions in that field will be made by the undead Catelyn. She is calling the shots because she is magically revived zombie. And she despises Jon Snow and is not going to strike a deal with him.

More importantly, what could the incentive of the average Riverlander be to join the North again? The North cannot protect them from Aegon and his allies, especially not if he allies himself with the Martells. The same goes for a King Euron. The North would also not be of help against such a guy. The Riverlanders would want their hostages back, revenge against the Freys, and then peace and quiet in winter. And they are not going to get that if they give the new King on the Iron Throne a new reason for war.

Plot convenience. The Weeper has recently cut out the eyes of a bunch of rangers. He is not done yet. And as things stand there is no reason to believe that the Others are already close to the Wall with vast wight armies. If that had been the case Val would never have had any success nor would Tormund and his people have ever reached the Wall. In fact, in such a scenario the very idea of the march to Hardhome would have been dismissed as ridiculous by anyone involved and not just Selyse (say, if Tormund and his people had been constantly troubled by wights they would have shown no inclination to ever go out there).

I guess they will arrive some time thereafter.

Could be. We'll have to wait and see. Not sure however why Jon Snow should play that part and not some Skagosi (who has taken on Rickon as a foster son or something like that), Davos/Stannis (if they are still alive), or even Lord Wyman (or the new Lord Manderly, Wylis, who should have been briefed by his father about the plan).

That is not my feeling. This plot point is what the one thing George actually commented on. You and many other people seem to want to squeeze this event in at this or that point in your vision of things, but the evidence suggests that this is not going to happen soon. If it was, then Shireen and Melisandre would have gone with Stannis.

That is just crap, I'm sorry. Why the hell should Stannis burn his daughter while they hang out at the Wall? What could he possibly accomplish by that? You have to have a reason for a such a sacrifice, something that makes it believable. Nobody would ever burn Shireen to resurrect Jon Snow (or even Stannis Baratheon himself) because them dying would disprove that they are special.

That is also why Jon's resurrection in the books most likely will be an accident - at least the resurrection of his body. The very same accident that brought Beric Dondarrion back to life.

I don't know how and why Shireen is going to die, but the scenario that Stannis will be the one who commands it is pretty much a given, I think. But the context is completely unclear.

Only the impossible in not about to happen. But a lot of stuff is possible and won't happen.

All I feel right now comfortable predicting is that Stannis and his Northmen will end up on top in the Winterfell dilemma. They will have the Manderlys defecting, and possibly the Umbers and other Northmen, too. If Roose dies in Winterfell Lady Dustin and the Ryswells will defect, too. The Freys are already done. Stannis also has the advantage that he has nothing to lose. He has to win and die. And a lot of his clansmen feel the same way. That is a big advantage in battle.

We also have Bran preparing something as per Theon 1.

The evidence for this whole thing is the Shireen thing (Stannis has to survive to be able to sacrifice his own daughter) as well as the fact that George told not so long ago (I think in the long NAB post in the beginning of the year) that he had recently worked on a Theon chapter. Considering that Theon 1 seems to be both polished and very much finished (it was supposed to be in ADwD at one point) I doubt that he worked on that chapter again. Which means Theon is both likely not to be sacrificed to the tree nor dying during the coming battle.

And if he doesn't die then there is a good chance that Stannis will win eventually, because there is no way Theon is going to survive if Stannis and his men are defeated.

In addition, Stannis also made it clear that he would not flee again. He either wins the coming battles or he dies. I don't see him changing his mind on that one.

However, aside from that the future plot elements are completely dependent on what happens at Winterfell. Are both Boltons killed? How many men die on both sides? How is the weather? And so on.

Well the Sansa timeline bolsters the idea that the Vale will not be involved in the Stark restoration, but rather join with the new Lord of Winterfell after he has regained his position, as an ally rather than as the agent of his restoration. Sansa still has to marry Harry, off Robert Arryn, possibly have Harry's child, and then potentially off Harry, in order to gain real power over the Vale. That is a year down the line. At which point the Northern power struggle will be long done for. Even if she speeds it up dramatically, by maybe gaining such power over Harry thanks to her womanly ways that he dances to her whims, we are still talking months in the future. Six months at the least. All of which will make her a participant in the restoration of the North AFTER the struggle for Winterfell is settled, rather than an active agent in its outcome.

Regarding the Tully's. Admit it. There are so many ways that the Riverlands can be tied to the North that it is more a case of which ones to leave out rather than finding one that could work. Via Jon it works if Jon is crowned as Robb's heir, and Edmure holds true to his vows to the King in the North.

But more likely, it is the issue of Bran and Rickon that binds the Riverlands to the North. Especially if Edmure dies. Then Bran, and after him Rickon, are the direct heirs of Riverrun. And if Rickon is indeed crowned King in the North, then he will also be Lord of the Riverlands. Simple as that. With Jon as his regent and Sansa as his ally. A very powerful alliance indeed.

Your biggest hope seems to be the narrative need for Stannis's plot to continue for some time, and for him to still be a significant player perhaps even when Daenerys arrives, in order for her to slay his lie. And the burning of Shirreen is a milestone point which you use as a minimum standard for Stannis's survival. In other words, if Shirreen can only burn at some distant future point, then Stannis has to be a major actor until that point.

Now, if that plays out the way you hope, then indeed, it screws up a lot of the Northern storyline. But a lot is up in the air at the moment, and a lot has been thrown haywire by the abandonment of the 5 year gap. Jon was not supposed to die until after the 5 year gap. So most likely the death of Jon was the catalyst for a lot of major events to happen in very quick succession, after the end of the 5 years. Bran was to complete his training and return south. Arya to complete her training and return to Westeros. Sansa to have established control of the Vale and become an actor in the Game. Daenerys's dragons to have grown, allowing her to return.

So now we are already at that point. So much of what was planned for "mid series filler" Stannis, is now no longer required. His endgame has arrived, but probably sooner than Daenerys's return can be accommodated. Hence, he is likely to disappear from the stage earlier than originally intended.

There is no reason why the burning of Shirreen cannot be speeded up to coincide with Stannis having suffered a crushing defeat and needing a last, desperate act by Mellisandre to save him. And if that act results in Jon accidentally being resurrected, well, it closes a lot of loops rather neatly.

That is one scenario. By no means the only scenario. But Stannis defeating the Boltons and occupying Winterfell, while Jon ends up chilling at the Wall for a book or so is not a plot I see as viable.

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

We cannot speculate what is going to happen a year down the line. We can at best speculate in books or chapters. And the fact is that the battles happen now while Sansa has not yet any power.

I hope we are on the same page that no Jon-Ramsay battles take place in the books. That would be a huge waste of time and if Stannis was defeated with all his real and prospective Northmen allies then there is simply no way how Jon could ever defeat Ramsay. Nor wouldn't the be any material for a battle or even a skirmish on Jon's part.

I don't think Sansa will hang out most/all of TWoW doing more or less nothing. I think the Aegon situation will be a catalyst for the Vale plot to get up to speed.

I just don't see the Tully thing happening. That would involve a lot of unrealistic elements like the Riverlords not caring about provoking Aegon with their new secession. Not to mention that it would cut them off from food supplies from the Reach they might be wanting. And you continuously ignore Catelyn Stark, by the way. If Edmure dies, Riverrun belongs to her, and no one else.

I think the Stannis plot will continue. But I actually don't think Dany will 'slay' Stannis in any literal sense. I think the show was true to the character in one way - that the Shireen sacrifice is going to break Stannis. Whatever the scenario in which this happens the man is not going to survive this for long. And that will then be the end of him.

I don't think Stannis will remain at Winterfell after he is has taken it. He'll return to the Wall. And Jon, well, Jon has first to be resurrected and become human again. I don't like the portrayal of 'sulking Jon' at all after his resurrection but I do think that this is, in part, a reflection of what George is going to do with him. He won't come back from the dead whole and empowered. He'll come back more wolf than man and being very pissed that people he trusted killed him. He'll put himself back together but this is going to take time, perhaps even some sort of skinchanger courses with Borroq and stuff, before he can take charge again.

The show gave us a death and resurrection with no meaning at all. Gandalf the Grey came back as Gandalf the Grey, basically.

But George has already told us that he doesn't like Gandalf the White's return, so we can expect Jon to be less than he was before, not more. He might eventually become more but that will actually be part of his journey.

You know my take on the books. The story is going to take more than two volumes to be finished. Jon Snow is not going to be fast-forwarded in some sort of super hero via his resurrection.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I don't see Jon becoming KitN in the books. Far too many people know Bran and Rickon survived the Sack of Winterfell. In ASoS, Bran states that the mountain clans have spotted them. His group is quite conspicuous. Many of the clans will know about him, not just the Liddles. That should give everyone a good reason to set aside Robb's will. Not to mention Jon's issues with not belonging in Winterfell. Or Bran contacting Jon while Jon is "dead".

Will the North continue its break from the IT? Probably yes, both book and show. Despite what Stannis said while looking at the Painted Table, nations are about people, not land. Westeros should be three nations. Bran will be KitN in the books, as the true Stark heir. (No matter how GRRM does it, the Hodor reveal is an almost sure confirmation that Bran comes south in the books. There's not very many doors for Hodor to hold north of the Wall.) That sets up the themes properly - Bran is Ice, Dany is Fire, Jon is Ice and Fire, the fulcrum between them.

What happens in the show when Bran shows up south of the Wall? Will there be a conflict between him and Jon for the North? Remember that in the original outline Jon and Bran became bitterly estranged. Will the show do that? Will the books? Dunno. I have trouble envisioning it. Although I think we will get an altered version of the original Northern Love Triangle in the books. Instead of Jon-Arya-Tyrion, we will get Jon-Meera-Bran.

Starting with season 5, the Northern storyline is the plot that D&D altered the most. They claim the end will be the same, but I suspect they wiped out all the waypoints in between. Their entire plot makes no sense at all. So to directly answer the OP, Pretty Much Nuthin'.

  

[sweetsunray]

Well, in many ways the surrounding elements support the idea that Stannis wins and takes out the Boltons. If he burns Shireen himself he can't do that without first surviving at least the Battle of Ice Lakes. Nor would he kill his daughter for WF. He'd only ever do that if the whole of the realm seems lost and the wall is breached by Others. Of course, the alternative is that Mel burns Shireen in Stannis's absence, while believing him to be dead.

Then there's this whole nutty S6 plot: with Jon making the tour at Houses that we know fight along with Stannis: Mormont, Glover. He skipped Cerwyn and Manderly, but these Houses still survive and declare for a KitN by the end of S6. And House Bolton has been wiped out. 

You can't have house Bolton wiped out, Glovers, Mormont, Cerwyn and Manderly declaring for anyone and Stannis living to burn Shireen without Stannis winning the Battle of WF in the books. Glovers, Mormonts and Cerwyns in Stannis's army would not turn against Stannis before the Boltons are dead and wiped out... because it would be suicide for one and they hate Roose and Ramsay for a great many reasons. Teh Cerwyns in Stannis's army are survivors of Ramsay routing Rodrik's Cassel army to retake WF after Theon took it. The Glovers got Deepwood Motte freed from Ironborn because of Stanni, and Robett Glover was sent to Duskendale by Roose, where he got captured and learned the whole thing was a trap. Alysane Mormont is the heir of House Mormont. Stannis sends her to the wall, but her men won't risk her life, plus they have Dacey's life to avenge. And while Manderly has not openly declared for Stannis, he sure as hell want the Freys and Boltons gone. None of these men and Houses can survive beyond the Battle of WF AND be rid of the Boltons without Stannis.

They might not be fond of the man, and they might actually be pulling a long con on Stannis especially with regards Robb's will. But considering the book alliances and plot and characters, to me the show only proves that Stannis wins the Battle of WF. It even fits the "a non-Northern army helps to retake WF'.  

What is also obvious to me is that Robb's will is in play in the books. There's no other reason why the term KitN would remain in use otherwise.

And it seems that eventually the RR power block will come back into play and unite: North, Vale (behind Yohn Royce), Riverlands and a homeless House Baratheon for at least a while. But if the BwB ends up joining North, they have a hidden bastard Baratheon with them.   

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

There's not very many doors for Hodor to hold north of the Wall.

There is one. The most important door of all, possibly. The Black Gate beneath the Wall. The way I imagine it Hodor (or at that point rather Bran-Hodor) will merge with the gate in an attempt to hold it against the Others to give Meera (and Jojen?) enough time to get through.

The Others might have developed means to attack that gate.

Hodor sort of merging/connecting with the weirwood door would also explain how the hell Hodor's mind got damaged. Because the way this thing happens in the show makes no sense at all. But a non-skinchanger drawn into the weirwood net and being forced to experience time as the trees do could easily shatter his mind on a temporal level and send waves of destruction throughout time to destroy to make him a lackwit since childhood.

Still don't buying the idea that Bran has to return physically down south. He will be able to reach everyone soon enough, so there is no need for that. His whole journey looked like a huge waste of time in the show and would look similarly in the books if George went down that road.

The show just did that because they did not want to have their actor stuck in a cave or have him to go on vision quest all the time. And they clearly don't give a damn about speaking weirwoods or sacrifices to trees, either.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

What is also obvious to me is that Robb's will is in play in the books. There's no other reason why the term KitN would remain in use otherwise.   

In the show that's just plot convenience. I mean, even the Lyanna girl knows that she is talking nonsense. Jon isn't a Stark, he is a Snow. And Sansa sits right there, conveniently saying nothing.

If the will is there in books so too will the knowledge about Jon's true parentage. And a King in the North setting just doesn't sound right to me in the middle of winter with the Others at the door and the North (most likely) very weakened after the battles.

Would Rhaegar's son push a claim against his elder half-brother? Would Rhaegar's son challenge the claim of Rhaegar's sister? In a time of dire need? I just don't see that happening.

And the show will wrap that plot up next season anyway. There will be little bit of Sansa/Littlefinger intrigue and stuff but the whole thing will disappear like snow when Dany and Jon marry each other.

[Ghosts Lunch]

Seems to me we'll get the Maege Mormont with the Will advocating Jons legitimacy, eg Jon picking up the Mormont shield etc seem to be a link

Lyanna as a stand-in for Maege, but she also seems to be mimmicking the Northern Clansmen, eg as Jon says to Stannis they follow who they respect (eg "the Mance") not because of lineage technicalities so we see the Northerners all respect Jon

Rickon will obviously die, there's a massive point of book BF and Edmure giving up RR and de-crowning Jeyne Westerling as being the end of Robbs North/RL Kingdom, Rickon is the only uncontestable heir. Blackfishes comments to Jaimie in books is very telling

The show seems to be delving into the fallout of Rickons death, eg Sansa has no regard for Jon at all going by the "he's a bastard" comment in Princess Tower AGoT, so she won't take to the idea of being "usurped" by Jon

Other side of the coin is that Sansa is married to Tyrion as a Lannister, so Northerners may not like that, there is the possibility she does marry HtH and they head North to recalim WF, who "falls off his Horse and hits his stupid head" and the book equivalent battle of Bastards 

So we can have a situation where Northerners get behind Jon and RL and Vale (via marriage and Sweetrobin affection) get behind Sansa

[Stannis is the man....nis]

Stannis will take WF be it being back stabbed by the Northerns, Sansa and the Vale kicking hm out, or he goes South and gets beat by Dany. he will lose the North and Jon will have to pick up the pieces.

[Balerion06]

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is one. The most important door of all, possibly. The Black Gate beneath the Wall. The way I imagine it Hodor (or at that point rather Bran-Hodor) will merge with the gate in an attempt to hold it against the Other to give Meera (and Jojen?) enough time to get through.

The Others might have developed means to attack that gate.

Hodor sort of merging/connecting with the weirwood door would also explain how the hell Hodor's mind got damaged. Because the way this thing happens in the show makes no sense at all. But a non-skinchanger drawn into the weirwood net and being forced to experience time as the trees do could easily shatter his mind on a temporal level and send waves of destruction throughout time to destroy to make him a lackwit since childhood.

I didn't know I wanted this till now

My only reservation with the whole Hodor's-mind-destroyed thing though is that Old Nan seems to imply in her talk with Bran that Walder was always simple, and he just one day started saying Hodor. Knowing D&D, I wouldn't be surprised if they made the kid normal just so his mind being destroyed was a SHOCK.

But either way, this sounds way better than what we got.

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

28 minutes ago, Stannis is the man....nis said:

Stannis will take WF be it being back stabbed by the Northerns, Sansa and the Vale kicking hm out, or he goes South and gets beat by Dany. he will lose the North and Jon will have to pick up the pieces.

Yeah, Stannis might even hold Rickon hostage against the Northern Lords and they crown Jon specifically to counter Stannis.

[Lord Varys]

45 minutes ago, Balerion06 said:

I didn't know I wanted this till now

My only reservation with the whole Hodor's-mind-destroyed thing though is that Old Nan seems to imply in her talk with Bran that Walder was always simple, and he just one day started saying Hodor. Knowing D&D, I wouldn't be surprised if they made the kid normal just so his mind being destroyed was a SHOCK.

But either way, this sounds way better than what we got.

My idea is that the 'Hold the door' moment in the magical weirwood door affected Hodor's entire temporal existence. There is not going to be a time in which he was normal just a child which is born and never normal thanks to the 'temporal trauma' he suffered in the moment of his death. Really experiencing time like the weirwoods do should be too much for his mind. Perhaps even for Bran's mind who has then to retreat leave Hodor's body, just giving him the powerful command to hold the door.

Eventually, I think, Meera and Jojen will leave the cave and Hodor-Bran will accompany them. Bran himself will remain behind. The whole mark and Others attack is utter crap as his Benjen-Coldhands. Benjen might not be dead in the books but he is not going to be Coldhands or Coldhands 2.0 (which he was in the show).

The whole angle in the show that the evil dark lord is going to overcome the ward the Children have is way too fantasy cliché to come from George. There might be an attack on the cave anyway, but if that's the case then they'll close the front the door and just hole up inside. There is not going to be some sort of action escape.

Not to mention that the plot in the books most likely necessitates a much longer hanging out with Bloodraven and interacting with the Children once they actually begin to explore the Others issue. Not to mention Bloodraven's own manipulations of events in the recent and more distant past. The books has yet to tell Bran and the reader who this Brynden fellow is. This is not just an easter egg for Dunk & Egg readers. The fact that the last greenseer is a bastard son of Aegon the Unworthy will be addressed in the books, too.

[Balerion06]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

My idea is that the 'Hold the door' moment in the magical weirwood door affected Hodor's entire temporal existence. There is not going to be a time in which he was normal just a child which is born and never normal thanks to the 'temporal trauma' he suffered in the moment of his death. Really experiencing time like the weirwoods do should be too much for his mind. Perhaps even for Bran's mind who has then to retreat leave Hodor's body, just giving him the powerful command to hold the door.

Eventually, I think, Meera and Jojen will leave the cave and Hodor-Bran will accompany them. Bran himself will remain behind. The whole mark and Others attack is utter crap as his Benjen-Coldhands. Benjen might not be dead in the books but he is not going to be Coldhands or Coldhands 2.0 (which he was in the show).

The whole angle in the show that the evil dark lord is going to overcome the ward the Children have is way too fantasy cliché to come from George. There might be an attack on the cave anyway, but if that's the case then they'll close the front the door and just hole up inside. There is not going to be some sort of action escape.

Not to mention that the plot in the books most likely necessitates a much longer hanging out with Bloodraven and interacting with the Children once they actually begin to explore the Others issue. Not to mention Bloodraven's own manipulations of events in the recent and more distant past. The books has yet to tell Bran and the reader who this Brynden fellow is. This is not just an easter egg for Dunk & Egg readers. The fact that the last greenseer is a bastard son of Aegon the Unworthy will be addressed in the books, too.

I'm really loving this idea. Bran's been a massive disappointment this season, and it's baffling how a story with as much potential as this was dragged through the mud so badly. I still can't get over this exchange-

Bran: You created the white walkers?!

Leaf: We were at war. Shrug.

Bran: Oh ok cool. Imma going back to bed now.

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If the will is there in books so too will the knowledge about Jon's true parentage. And a King in the North setting just doesn't sound right to me in the middle of winter with the Others at the door and the North (most likely) very weakened after the battles.

Would Rhaegar's son push a claim against his elder half-brother? Would Rhaegar's son challenge the claim of Rhaegar's sister? In a time of dire need? I just don't see that happening.

And the show will wrap that plot up next season anyway. There will be little bit of Sansa/Littlefinger intrigue and stuff but the whole thing will disappear like snow when Dany and Jon marry each other.

Regarding the Will: a Mormont and a Glover have first time knowledge on it. There's also Edmure haven spoken with the BF before BF escaped AND only 2 men volunteered to take the Black and were sent off to a ship for Eastwatch. Edmure too knows the content of Robb's will, and since the BF acted as the Warden of the RL for Robb, there's no doubt in my mind that Edmure told BF about it (especially since it's ironic that BF mentioned not trusting Jon Snow to Jaime before that).

I'm one of those who thinks that Bran will not return anytime soon, if at all. I interprete the direwolf scene at WF with Tyrion  peeing his pants as follows: when Bran enters the hall, (1) Robb sit the Stark ruling chair, sword in his lap, direwolf heads at the end of the arms of the chair. (2) He then gets up so Bran can sit in it (3) Rickon enters the hall with the 3 direwolves. This is a aGoT scene, when Ned Stark's alive. I know we disagree on what is George's way of foreshadowing but to me that's one such scene, because the way that Robb is seated is way too similar to Ned's seated position in Cat's first chapter as he cleans Ice beneath the weirwood tree, and the statues in the crypts of the Lords of WF and Kings of Winter. So, it foreshadows that Robb will become Lord of WF/KitN first, followed by Bran ruling in the chair (and eventually Rickon, but he never gets to sit on the chair. The Rickon scene with the 3 direwolves entering the hall from outside, suggests that Rickon coincides or is the onset of the "return of the wolves". And I also make note of the fact that Bran does not have a sword in his lap at all.

Robb became KitN by the end of aGoT (fits the image of Robb with the sword in his lap completely). Bran was the Prince of WF ruling while seated in that chair (fits that he doesn't have a sword in his lap). And now Davos is searching for Rickon on request by Manderly (who probably is not aware of the will at all) to put a Stark back in WF. He is already a character that though absent gets the needed factions acting to help "the wovles return". The foreshadowing of that scene has already come to pass imo or is at its final phase: Robb had his time on the chair, Bran had his time on the chair, and while I think Rickon is awesome in that scene, unfortunately I don't think he'll actually ever make it to the chair.

So, that leaves us with Sansa and Arya, and thus back to Robb's will: and I think that Robb disinherited Sansa,because she was in Lannister hands and married to Tyrion (who perhaps not so incidentally is also the one who pees his pants as 3 wolves snarl at him). He certainly expressed such a wish to his mother. Robb would have tried to make sure there was no claim on WF via Sansa. The will is something LF does not know about at all, and it's the foil of his plans. Arya might have a chance of not being mentioned, since she was believed to be dead. And though she might want to return home and show that she's alive, it's a) not certain that she will survive b ) that she succeeds in returning before Jon's declared KitN.

On top of that Robb's will would have legitimized Jon as a Stark, aside from naming him his heir, which only a king can do. Even if he's not Ned's son, he is Lyanna's son, and if legitimized a Stark heir regardless, and looks like being the sole male heir left.

So, in conclusion, I think Bran never returns to WF. He already had his time on the seat as Prince of WF, but never will be on that chair as either Lord or as King (no sword in his lap). Rickon will probably be found and might even manage to get back home, but he will not survive ultimately (and I really want to interprete that aggressive "return of the wolves" scene with Rickon controlling the 3 direwolves as evidence he will be one of those "badass" Kings of Winter, but I cannot in all fairness of the interpretation of that scene). Sansa is disinherited and will never get WF, and honestly, I think that Sansa wouldn't mind... her "claim" is her curse with Tywin, Tyrells and LF trying to set up all those marriages. She hates her claim. So, that leaves just Jon and Arya, who won't be there imo at the time of Jon being made KitN (and the inheritance of a throne, we know, goes somewhat differently than just the seat of a House... preferring males over women). That said, Jon, Arya and Sansa will probably continue to be 3 wolves that harrangue the Lannisters each in their own way. Arya might become QitN (Nymeria) imo if she survives and Jon does not, or if he becomes King-consort of Westeros.  

[sweetsunray]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is one. The most important door of all, possibly. The Black Gate beneath the Wall. The way I imagine it Hodor (or at that point rather Bran-Hodor) will merge with the gate in an attempt to hold it against the Others to give Meera (and Jojen?) enough time to get through.

The Others might have developed means to attack that gate.

Hodor sort of merging/connecting with the weirwood door would also explain how the hell Hodor's mind got damaged. Because the way this thing happens in the show makes no sense at all. But a non-skinchanger drawn into the weirwood net and being forced to experience time as the trees do could easily shatter his mind on a temporal level and send waves of destruction throughout time to destroy to make him a lackwit since childhood.

Still don't buying the idea that Bran has to return physically down south. He will be able to reach everyone soon enough, so there is no need for that. His whole journey looked like a huge waste of time in the show and would look similarly in the books if George went down that road.

The show just did that because they did not want to have their actor stuck in a cave or have him to go on vision quest all the time. And they clearly don't give a damn about speaking weirwoods or sacrifices to trees, either.

With this I agree. It's not some door in the cave. It's the Black Gate, with Meera (and Jojen?) and Hodor returning south. He'll send them south to spread word of what he learned. Bran doesn't need to physically go south, since he can use ravens and talk via weirwood trees IRL and in dreams.  Coldhands might still be around to help Meera a leg, sans elk. But imo Benjen is dead and he isn't Coldhands. The show-Benjenhands was simply a merging of the Coldhands stuff of aDwD (leading them to the cave) and aSoS (saving Sam).