What's the basis for Cersei's claim to the Iron Throne?

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

You make a lot of baseless assumptions.

1. There is no reason to assume the Tyrells will care what happens in the Riverlands.

2. There are about 20,000-30,000 Tyrell men in the city right now. Mace is not going to send all of them against Aegon. Not with the Faith Militant in the city.

3. The City Watch was in the hands of Slynt and Littlefinger, not the Lannisters. And we have no idea whom they are following now - not Cersei, because her man was the deposed Osfryd Kettleblack. Not to mention that you forget that Mace Tyrell also added his own men to the City Watch as per the Epilogue.

4. George is not as stupid as to feed us the idea that having a woman walk naked through the streets is going to destroy her ability to rule and then have her seize power again openly. That just doesn't make any sense. Neither in the books nor in the show, actually.

1. The Tyrell forces, more specifically Tarly, are already invested in the Riverlands and Crownlands, and generally the aftermath of the Northern war. So much so that Dickon even married a Mooton. The Freys are about to descend into a heredity dispute leaving a power vacuum, and the only somewhat capable army on the ground there is a band of religious knights under Hasty aside from the Lannisters. Tarly only left because of Margaery's arrest, but he is a prideful man, and what he was trying to accomplish in the region was not accomplished; the BWB still operate freely, and the region is not subdued.

2. The Faith Militant are not a threat to the Tyrells if the Tyrells ally with them, which they would do because the alliance with the Lannisters is in trouble and they want to hold power. There is no reason at all to assume what happened in the show with Margaery was anything other than an ADAPTATION of future events in the books. Different, yes, but leading in essentially the same direction, which is for the Tyrells to adapt to and make use of the Sparrow situation. Once Margaery's trial is over the Sparrows are a threat to Cersei, not to them.

2b. Aegon is not their only problem. The Reach itself had been invaded at the point we left off. They may have a large army, but they are also being forced to fight on several fronts.

3. Slynt has not been in charge of the city watch for a long time. Humphrey Waters is the latest commander, and his appointment took place while Kevan was running things. Regardless of the commander, the watch itself has been weighted Lannister for a very long time and the addition of a hundred Tyrells recently will not change the balance all that much.

4. Just because you don't like the way the show did it it seems, does not at all mean that GRRM will not write a version that, with the addition of a few more power moves and details, will not make sense. Yes, Cersei was brought low by the walk. That does not at all change the extent to which the power structures of the Realm have become invested over the course of Robert's reign and beyond, in Lannister patronage, and how they therefore have no interest in seeing the Lannisters thrown out.

 

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

1. The Tyrell forces, more specifically Tarly, are already invested in the Riverlands and Crownlands, and generally the aftermath of the Northern war. So much so that Dickon even married a Mooton. The Freys are about to descend into a heredity dispute leaving a power vacuum, and the only somewhat capable army on the ground there is a band of religious knights under Hasty aside from the Lannisters. Tarly only left because of Margaery's arrest, but he is a prideful man, and what he was trying to accomplish in the region was not accomplished; the BWB still operate freely, and the region is not subdued.

You are not making sense. Maidenpool and Duskendale have been pacified by Tarly. If you check the map and Brienne's journey you'll realize that she didn't chance on outlaws in those regions.

There is no reason for you to claim or for me to buy that the Tyrells will care what happens there.

2 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

2. The Faith Militant are not a threat to the Tyrells if the Tyrells ally with them, which they would do because the alliance with the Lannisters is in trouble and they want to hold power. There is no reason at all to assume what happened in the show with Margaery was anything other than an ADAPTATION of future events in the books. Different, yes, but leading in essentially the same direction, which is for the Tyrells to adapt to and make use of the Sparrow situation. Once Margaery's trial is over the Sparrows are a threat to Cersei, not to them.

That doesn't make any sense, either, because in the book you read both Tarly and Mace are not particularly interested in deferring to the High Septon. They don't want a Faith trial for Margaery, and now that Kevan is dead they might decide not to go through with it. We don't know what's going to happen yet. But the chances are not so bad that Mace will tell the High Septon to go fuck himself with his trial.

2 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

2b. Aegon is not their only problem. The Reach itself had been invaded at the point we left off. They may have a large army, but they are also being forced to fight on several fronts.

That is already been taken care of. The Tyrells had an army of about 50,000-60,000 at KL after the Blackwater. Half of those men returned to the Reach with Garlan, Alerie, and Olenna. They are there right now, preparing to deal with the Ironborn. In addition there are 10,000 additional men at Highgarden which Renly mentioned back in ACoK. The Tyrells don't have to send any of their men from KL to the Reach to deal with Euron. That wouldn't help. They need ships, not men.

2 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

3. Slynt has not been in charge of the city watch for a long time. Humphrey Waters is the latest commander, and his appointment took place while Kevan was running things. Regardless of the commander, the watch itself has been weighted Lannister for a very long time and the addition of a hundred Tyrells recently will not change the balance all that much.

Again, you are wrong. Humphrey Waters was named the new Lord Commander while Pycelle and Swyft governed the Realm, and that was before Ser Kevan returned to KL to take up the Regency. And he is no Lannister man but the previous commander of the Dragon Gate. I guess that is a small hint where his true loyalties might lie...

But then, as long as there are Tyrell armies in the city the City Watch doesn't matter. But from what we know there is no hint that there are many Lannister men are among them considering that nothing suggests anything like that during Tyrion's chapters in ACoK. They are not particularly Lannister friendly and had to be bought. Tywin put Ser Addam Marbrand in charge of them but there is no hint that they add any Lannister men. They are down to 4,400 men after the Blackwater and the Crown has trouble paying them.

2 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

4. Just because you don't like the way the show did it it seems, does not at all mean that GRRM will not write a version that, with the addition of a few more power moves and details, will not make sense. Yes, Cersei was brought low by the walk. That does not at all change the extent to which the power structures of the Realm have become invested over the course of Robert's reign and beyond, in Lannister patronage, and how they therefore have no interest in seeing the Lannisters thrown out.

You are imagining people who don't want to see the Lannisters thrown out. The Kingslanders always despised because Tywin actually sucked there city not so long ago. There are also no known Lannister cronies holding mid-tier offices in KL we know of. And no sign that Cersei has anybody (aside from Qyburn) she can trust. Or why do you think nobody freed the Queen Regent when she was seized and arrested by the Faith? That was an outrage and if there were any Lannister friends in the city in key positions then the Great Sept would have been attacked and/or the Faith would have been forced to release Cersei. Just as Tarly forced the High Septon to release Margaery.

If nobody saved Cersei when she was in trouble (not even her uncle) why the hell should now people risk their lives fighting for Cersei against overwhelming odds? It doesn't make any sense.

[Hippocras]

Lord Varys,

I am not going to answer you point by point because this conversation is circular and each point-by-point ends up having to be longer and longer to wade through everything.

Your basic argument from what I can tell, is that the show must have invented something that does not even bear the slightest resemblance to where the books will go, because seeing it as an adaptation does not fit with your various theories and understanding of the political context of the books.

My basic argument is that the show's adaptation is largely working around the absence of Aegon, which necessarily means that things play out rather differently. However a Lannister power grab is simply too key a moment for it to be pure invention for the show IMO, in spite of any differences in the form it will take in the books. And in fact the books have established several details that make it far more likely a possibility than you are admitting.

I am not inventing the level of investment that various players have in Lannister power. We learned from the very first book the extent to which the Lannisters had infiltrated everything. We also learned just how many land grabs the Lannisters had made via various marriages and deal making during the war. What that level of stakes in Lannister power means is that people who are now dependent on Lannister patronage are far less concerned about Cersei having been shamed and having a weak claim etc. than they are about losing what they have gained from patronage. 

There are certainly many people who are NOT invested in Lannister rule in the Kingdoms, however those people are already preparing for war, whether Tommen is still King or Cersei makes a move to replace him. Cersei making a power grab will not affect them because they are already enemies.

Meanwhile, the Reach is under attack. The Stormlands have fallen to Aegon. Tyrell forces took heavy losses at Dragonstone. You talk as if the Tyrell army is unlimited and has nothing to do but hang out in KL. But that is simply not true. And for their part, an alliance with the Sparrows is not that huge a stretch either, given the emphasis the books have given to Margaery's frequent sept visits, charity, and shows of piety.

In short then, the show's version is a version, not an invention, and it is a version based on trying to get to more or less the same place without Aegon in the picture.

[The Onion Kniggit]

Cersei is pretty much in the same position as Joffery was back in the beginning of Season 2, that is being merely just the ruler of the Crownlands, Westerlands and with a tenuous hold on the virtually destroyed Riverlands. Given what happened at the Sept, I wouldn't be surprised if the Westerlands actually rebels against her and joins up with any of the alliances, especially considering that they have a lot to make up for.

Judging by the newly released poster for Season 7, things don't look good for her.

[Byfort of Corfe]

When Cersei blew up the Sept of Balor she took out not only the High Septon but most, if not all, of the Faith's Hierarchy as well as the Faith's Army.  She also took out the Small Council and the Hand of the King, the Queen, most of the nobility, probably the Captains of the City Guard.  She made the moves to secure Tommen, then Tommen committed suicide.  So who exactly is left to oppose her?  She has just demonstrated incredible power and ruthlessness and she has decapitated the Government.  It's a classic coup.  The powers that would normally keep her off the throne, that would seek out a legitimate heir are all dead or way outside the city.  Now though Cersei has to move quickly to consolidate her power.  After all, when all Is said and done we've seen Cersei as Queen for what, maybe 3 minutes?  Right now GoT has three main plot lines going and the all ended "in media res"  Jon has been anointed "King in the North", Dany is finally at Sea, and Cersei has claimed the throne and yes, we have to wait until Season 7 to see how those lines progress.

[Rhollo]

15 hours ago, Byfort of Corfe said:

So who exactly is left to oppose her?  She has just demonstrated incredible power and ruthlessness and she has decapitated the Government.  It's a classic coup. 

The better question is: Who is left to support her ?

- Any future leader of the faith ? Certainly not.
- Lannister Bannerman ? Maybe, but she also killed their former lord (Kevan) and after being released from the KG Jamie is now the head of the house and we'll have to see how he reacts to her becoming Aerys 2.0 and being responsible for Tommens death.
- Other great families ? None in sight, really. Euron's Ironborn, if you squint. Or maybe LF chaosladder onto her side again just for shits and giggles, who knows.
- (Some of the) City watch ? Maybe, as long as she can pay them.
- That leaves Gregor + some personal guards.

She even disposed of Pycelle, who was always portraied as her lackey, for some unknown reason. So she can't even have the grand maester as some kind a worldly authority back her.

It is not really a coup if you don't have powerful friends ready to support your newly obtained position. She is really just sitting the IT physically at this moment, but wielding none of it's power. If we are generous, she rules KL as a kind of city-state, as long as she can keep the smallfolk from revolting.

[Rhollo]

-

[SeanF]

On ‎6‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 7:11 PM, shmewdog said:

Cersei's coronation at the end of episode 10 doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  With Tommen's death, the matter of who should ascend the throne becomes rather complicated.  Since no one seems to know about Gendry,  and since Dany's only claim would be through conquest, I assume that the next claimant would have to be descended from a Targaryen daughter.  Robert justified his claim not just on conquest, but also from his grandmother's Targaryen blood.  Are there any living characters who have Targaryen lineage through the female line?  I checked through the lineages listed in the back of the World of Ice and Fire, but nothing sprung out at me.

I read an article online that argued that if Tommen were to die, the next claimant would have been Tywin Lannister, as he is supposedly descended from a Lannister-Targaryen marriage somewhere in his ancestry.  Since it was a clickbait article I take it with a grain of salt to say the least.  But assuming it is true, then with Tywin dead, Jaime sworn to not hold lands and Tyrion attainted, the next ruler would indeed be Cersei.  Not that her reign will likely last long, she has the backing of literally no one of the other regions and she's got Dany, Unsullied, Dothraki allied with Ironborn, Martells and Tyrells coming for her. 

Anybody able/willing to shed some light on this? 

 

 

 

Tywin Lannister has no claim to the Iron Throne.  In the absence of any surviving Baratheon (in the Show) Daenerys would have the best claim.

Cersei is a usurper, who has seized the Iron Throne, simply because she was present in Kings Landing, and had wiped out her enemies.  A good historical parallel would be someone like Empress Irene, of the Byzantine Empire, who had her son blinded in 797, and ruled as Empress regnant for five years, before she was overthrown in turn.  She had no claim to the throne, other than force.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=empress+irene&biw=1536&bih=723&tbm=isch&imgil=X1ePzfw44dfMdM%3A%3BRuYa54q_O87scM%3Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.pinterest.com

Irene even looked rather like Cersei, as a young woman.

[RhaenysBee]

Nothing. Cersei's claim for the Iron Throne is a big fat nothing and her coronation makes absolutely no sense. 

She got to crown herself because there were two men, Qyburn and FrankenGregor, supporting her in a city that counts 2 million people? How? 

Succession? I wouldn't think so, Robert is dead, his so called sons who succeeded him are dead, his so called daughter is dead, his brothers are dead, his brother's daughter is dead. Based on succession, the nobility still left in KL should be looking Robert's heir, lacking such, a Targaryen heir (blond hair, dragons, ships ring any bells?). 

Cersei is an infertile female with no lineage to provide her with a claim to the throne. WHO let this person crown herself? Primogeniture just got F'ed in the arse. 

Conquest? I wouldn't think so with that two to twenty good men Cersei can round up to fight for her. There is no army. Who conquered what for her? The Lannister army? Don't they answer to the head of House Lannister who is at this point NOT Cersei? Aren't they stationed in the Westernlands and the Riverlands? The Gold Cloaks? Don't they answer to the Master of Coin who pays them who happens to be Lord Tyrell who is dead? Are there still Gold Cloaks at all? 

But, let's sweep it all under a rug and say Cersei is queen. How long will this last...? A week? Two?  Who exactly supports Cersei, this 40+ year-old ill-reputed publicly humiliated kin(g)slaying woman with no heir, no real claim to the throne and no considerable military force? 

The Tyrells whose main line she imprisoned, humiliated and blew up? 

The Martells who don't exist? 

The bastard women of Dorne who seek revenge for a man her very own FrankenMountain killed? 

The Baratheons who don't exist? 

The other families of the Stormlands who fought her alongside the Baratheon brothers and might have a better claim to the throne through them than she does? 

The Vale who is single handedly ruled by Littlefinger who wants himself and Sansa on her throne? 

The Freys who can't keep the Riverlands and just lost the head of their house? 

The North who just crowned (on just as ridiculous basis, might I add) their own monarch and have been in open rebellion against the Iron Throne since season 1? 

The small folk who just threw shit in her face a couple weeks ago and still haven't recovered from the laughter, and whose holy place and head of church she just blew up? 

The lesser houses of the king's lands whose members were just blown up while attending her trial? 

Her ill-reputed half-handed kin(g)slaying brother and whatever is left of the Lannister army and gold, who is supporting her... Because of that incestous relationship they have? That should be enough to take her as far as three weeks... 

 

[Byfort of Corfe]

5 hours ago, Rhollo said:

The better question is: Who is left to support her ?

- Any future leader of the faith ? Certainly not.
- Lannister Bannerman ? Maybe, but she also killed their former lord (Kevan) and after being released from the KG Jamie is now the head of the house and we'll have to see how he reacts to her becoming Aerys 2.0 and being responsible for Tommens death.
- Other great families ? None in sight, really. Euron's Ironborn, if you squint. Or maybe LF chaosladder onto her side again just for shits and giggles, who knows.
- (Some of the) City watch ? Maybe, as long as she can pay them.
- That leaves Gregor + some personal guards.

She even disposed of Pycelle, who was always portraied as her lackey, for some unknown reason. So she can't even have the grand maester as some kind a worldly authority back her.

It is not really a coup if you don't have powerful friends ready to support your newly obtained position. She is really just sitting the IT physically at this moment, but wielding none of it's power. If we are generous, she rules KL as a kind of city-state, as long as she can keep the smallfolk from revolting.

Currently, within the city, there is no one to oppose her.  I'm not saying that she has a legitimate claim nor that she will win, just at the moment the idea that "oh, everybody is dead?  Well, let's call a meeting of the small council and the Faith to choose a ruler and ...oh right, they're dead"  And let's see, Gregor and some personal guards and Jaime's Lannister Army.  And let's see, Mace Tryell is dead, along with Ser Loras and I woner how many of his troops died in the collapse of Baelor's Sept?

[Woman of War]

We have been prepared for Cersei's move many seasons ago.

She played that liitle game with Baelish: "Knowledge is power" - ? No, "Power is power" !!!!

We are not supposed to find the deep inner logic in Cersei claiming the throne. She does because she can - at this moment. Power is power, even if ephemeral.

[Ruhail]

That D&D, really like LenaHeady/Cersei and want a Cersei Vs. Dany S7 finale.

[RhaenysBee]

32 minutes ago, Ruhail said:

That D&D, really like LenaHeady/Cersei and want a Cersei Vs. Dany S7 finale.

Quoted for truth. 

Here, you deserve a cake for these wise words. 

 

[Cron]

On 6/28/2016 at 2:11 PM, shmewdog said:

Cersei's coronation at the end of episode 10 doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  With Tommen's death, the matter of who should ascend the throne becomes rather complicated.  Since no one seems to know about Gendry,  and since Dany's only claim would be through conquest, I assume that the next claimant would have to be descended from a Targaryen daughter.  Robert justified his claim not just on conquest, but also from his grandmother's Targaryen blood.  Are there any living characters who have Targaryen lineage through the female line?  I checked through the lineages listed in the back of the World of Ice and Fire, but nothing sprung out at me.

I read an article online that argued that if Tommen were to die, the next claimant would have been Tywin Lannister, as he is supposedly descended from a Lannister-Targaryen marriage somewhere in his ancestry.  Since it was a clickbait article I take it with a grain of salt to say the least.  But assuming it is true, then with Tywin dead, Jaime sworn to not hold lands and Tyrion attainted, the next ruler would indeed be Cersei.  Not that her reign will likely last long, she has the backing of literally no one of the other regions and she's got Dany, Unsullied, Dothraki allied with Ironborn, Martells and Tyrells coming for her. 

Anybody able/willing to shed some light on this? 

 

 

 

Here's my understanding of it:

At the end of Robert's Rebellion, the person with the best claim to the throne was...Robert Baratheon.

NOT just cuz he took it by force, but b/c HE has a Targaryen in his ancestry, which is why, it is believed, Robert got the throne instead of Ned or Jon Arryn.  If this is the case, then that would trump any claim Tywin Lannister had at the time, and Robert's line succeeds.

Next, at the time of Tommen's death, as I understand it, the known characters with the best claim to the throne are...Cersei and Jaime, NOT b/c of their relationships to Robert, Joffrey or Tommen, but rather, b/c THEY (Jaime and Cersei) have a Baratheon in their ancestry.  The known Baratheon line is wiped out, so we look to living relatives of the Baratheon line, and we find a connection to the Lannister line, the oldest of whom is...Cersei Lannister.

Thus, it is entirely plausible that Cersei (being older than Jaime by a few minutes) has claimed the throne is hers by right, not just cuz she seized it.

That's my understanding of it.

[Rhollo]

13 hours ago, Byfort of Corfe said:

Currently, within the city, there is no one to oppose her.  I'm not saying that she has a legitimate claim nor that she will win, just at the moment the idea that "oh, everybody is dead?  Well, let's call a meeting of the small council and the Faith to choose a ruler and ...oh right, they're dead"  And let's see, Gregor and some personal guards and Jaime's Lannister Army.  And let's see, Mace Tryell is dead, along with Ser Loras and I woner how many of his troops died in the collapse of Baelor's Sept?

The smallfolk and remaining FM are definitely a opposition/threat to her within the city. It was mentioned that there are hundreds of faith militant in KL. And there weren's nearly as much present at the trial.
Of course, given the lack of consistency in the show, it's a possibility that the number of FM magically shrunk before the trial and Cersei just convienently wiped out everyone.

Cersei domain of ruling barely stretches to the KL city walls, her sitting the Iron Throne is a totally empty gesture.

 

Or let's say it should be. But having in mind how Ellaria and the Sand Snakes could seize control over Dorne with a similar coup and everyone generally get's political and military power just thrown at them as needed to create the big showdown (see northern plot over the last 2 seasons), who knows.

Cersei is clearly predestinated to be THE main villain next season, so she'll just have as large an army as she needs to have.
I mean, why not, she is still super-rich, right. It's not like both the Lannisters and the Crown were already running out of money months/years ago and needed the Tyrells so sustain them.

[MoreOrLess]

2 hours ago, Rhollo said:

The smallfolk and remaining FM are definitely a opposition/threat to her within the city. It was mentioned that there are hundreds of faith militant in KL. And there weren's nearly as much present at the trial.
Of course, given the lack of consistency in the show, it's a possibility that the number of FM magically shrunk before the trial and Cersei just convienently wiped out everyone.

Cersei domain of ruling barely stretches to the KL city walls, her sitting the Iron Throne is a totally empty gesture.

Or let's say it should be. But having in mind how Ellaria and the Sand Snakes could seize control over Dorne with a similar coup and everyone generally get's political and military power just thrown at them as needed to create the big showdown (see northern plot over the last 2 seasons), who knows.

Cersei is clearly predestinated to be THE main villain next season, so she'll just have as large an army as she needs to have.
I mean, why not, she is still super-rich, right. It's not like both the Lannisters and the Crown were already running out of money months/years ago and needed the Tyrells so sustain them.

The explosion of course did destroy a large area around the Sept as well that seems likely to have housed a lot of the Faith as well but I do certainly think theres potential for her to face unrest from the general populace and maybe leftovers of the faith, especially if Ayra ends up going after her(and/or Gendry is brought back) giving us more of a "street level" view that could focus on it.

To me besides Euron the main potential for Cersei to expand her forces would be the Tarly's, potentially offering them the Reach. Really though I'm not sure Cersei needs the ability to closely contest with Dany on the battle field, I could potentially see the focus being more Dany and co having to manage the conquest and Cersei's descent into ever greater desperation with Jamie potentially turning against her.

I would not be at all surprised if season 7 is actually much less built around the "good" characters coming out ontop than season 6 was focusing more on the build up to the final in season 8.

[Rhollo]

What's also quite interesting, is the timeline of Cersei's coup, when taking Jamies plot into consideration.

In Episode 4 Cersei mentions in the small council meeting that her trial will be in "a few days".

In the same meeting, they also discuss Marg's upcoming Walk of atonement and how to avoid it. Jamie says that the Tyrells have a great army and should bring them into the city. So the Tyrell army we see later needed to be assembled. Let's be generous here and assume, they didn't get troops all the way from Highgarden but from some Vassal houses close to King's Landing, and that could be done in roughly a little less than a week.

We then have the confrontation in front of the sept that results in Tommen announcing the "pact" between Crown and Faith and Jamie get's sent to Riverrun to lift the siege.

After that, Cersei chooses violence, Trial by combat get's outlawed and she and Qyburn set the Wildfire plan in motion as a reaction to that.

So, Cerseis statement of "a few days" until her trial must already be interpretad very broadly to fit all these events, but even if we allow it to mean something like 3 or 4 weeks, her blowing up the sept must happen while Jamie is still just en route to Riverrun.

But he is back in time to witness her coronation. So all the time it took Jamie to lift the siege of Riverrun, travel to the Twins to celebrate with Walder and get back to KL again, Cersei waited before proclaiming herself queen.

 

I mean, it would make some sense for her to wait until the Lannister army is back in the city, before publicly seizing power.
But on the other hand, how the hell did KL not descend into total chaos, being left in a complete power vacuum for weeks after a terrorist attack ?

[Le Cygne]

And it's not just a terrorist attack, but the destruction of a holy place.

[dsug]

And also, we have to remember all the common people might not be as educated. They genuinely might not know the specifics of the line of succession, so they are unable to call BS on Cersei's coronation. 

But at the end of the day, Cersei pulled a coup. Wipe out the opposition. Seize power for yourself. Rule through fear. 

[Rhollo]

2 hours ago, dsug said:

But at the end of the day, Cersei pulled a coup. Wipe out the opposition. Seize power for yourself. Rule through fear. 

Power and rule extending as far as the walls of the Red Keep go, that is. And maybe over the smallfolk of King's landing, as long as they are scared or indifferent enough. And who are more of a burden, really.  A lot of hungry mouths to feed or angry hands to control (should she fail the first one) in the upcoming war.