Do you think Robert would have killed Jon?

[Julia H.]

7 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

I'm not sure. I assume Jon Arryn would've had an idea before Stannis was ordered out, and that the idea wasn't to kill them given his opinion on them throughout Robert's reign. Westeros is handy in that the Wall, Citadel and Silent Sisters are a good place to drop someone if you need to remove their claim, so maybe they'd be sent to one of those places. Dany herself might be married to Robert's heir to solidify his claim, which was pretty common.

I can see the marriage plans for Dany. As a girl, she would be regarded as less dangerous than Viserys (LOL), as a baby, she would be (supposedly) easily influenced and brought up with considerable loyalty to the Baratheon regime, and her marriage to Robert's heir might satisfy the former Targaryen loyalists. A disadvantage could be that there would be no marriage alliance between Robert's heir and a still strong and influential Westerosi family (like the Baratheon-Stark marriage suggested by Robert). 

Viserys, however, would still be a nuisance. While he is alive, the legitimacy that marrying Dany could give the Baratheons might not be worth much in the eyes of Targaryen loyalists. At the start of Robert's reign, Viserys would have been too young to become a sworn brother of the Night's Watch - or if he had taken the vow then, such a vow could easily have been challenged later, on the grounds that he had been too young. Sending him to the Wall at such a young age might be a controversial decision in itself. While the Wall is a perfectly fine place for a teenage Stark bastard (who was brought up with the idea that the NW was a noble calling), it may not be regarded by Southerners as a suitable place for a six- or seven-year-old prince of royal blood. Besides, the Wall was also the place where knights who had fought for the Targaryens ended up, so sending their prince to them would not have been a strategically good idea. After all, those knights on the Wall were surely unhappy, and they were still armed - all they needed was a prince to rally behind, and a rebellion would almost certainly have occured.

On the other hand, if Viserys had not (yet) been sent to the Wall, where would he have been? Certainly away from Dany and away from any lords of questionable loyalty. Raising him far from the court would mean Robert couldn't keep an eye on him, a situation that rebels might take advantage of. Imprisoning him would be another option - he would be at least alive, but it would still be quite a cruel treatment, and his life would be in danger the moment someone wished the old regime back. 

I don't think the Citadel would have been a much more satisfying option than the Wall. It would still have taken many years before Viserys could have become a sworn maester, and we know that Aemon was offered the crown even after he had become a maester. 

All in all, I think Viserys alive and in the Seven Kingdoms would have caused Robert a lot of worry, while an easy solution to the problem would have presented itself practically any moment. How long would Robert (or Tywin or Cersei) have resisted the temptation? Even Stannis, who prided himself on being just, could be convinced in the end to kill an innocent boy - his own nephew - for "the good of the realm". 

Back to Jon: Provided that he survived Robert's first rage when Robert learned that Lyanna had given birth to Rhaegar's child and that Ned intended to bring up the dragonspawn as his own bastard; with his identity kept secret from everyone else, he would not have been regarded by Robert as politically dangerous as Viserys. Yet, he was safer if not even Robert was informed of his parentage. To mention just one possible difficulty: Ned was very lucky that Jon had this 100% Stark look, and it was something that probably couldn't be predicted when Jon was a baby. So Robert, if he had known of baby Jon's Targaryen parentage, couldn't have been sure that Jon wouldn't grow up looking like Rhaegar, which would have made the secret much more difficult to keep... There would still have been risks, and ultimately, the fate of any Targaryen prince living in the Seven Kingdoms would have depended on how safe Robert (and later his heir) was feeling on the IT at any given moment. 

  

[EwanStark]

I don't think he would have. Robert believes Rhaegar kidnapped and raped Lyanna, so I don't think he would have anything against a child born of rape of the woman he loved. 

[DominusNovus]

14 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

he would be a threat to his grandkids claim

Like Edric Storm, Mya Stone, Gendry, and the rest, right?

[Dorian Martell]

2 minutes ago, DominusNovus said:

Like Edric Storm, Mya Stone, Gendry, and the rest, right?

Yes, but not in the same way. Much like how Cat was fearful of Jon making a claim on winterfell, Bob's bastard that would be an issue is Ederic Storm. He is taken care of though. Jon, is the blood of the last dragon and quite possibly the rightful heir of the Iron Throne, would represent the "true king" that folks like Barristan want to have. Tywin made sure the other kids of Rhaegar were brutally killed, why would he stop at Jon, especially if he though Jon to be a lowly bastard?  

[Jon's Queen Consort]

7 minutes ago, DominusNovus said:

Like Edric Storm, Mya Stone, Gendry, and the rest, right?

Robert was the King and they were not the last heirs of the previous dynasty and the son of their beloved Prince charming.

[sergiosandres]

I made an account just for answer this!! he would not do it.

GoT chapter 47- Eddard XIII

Quote

His laugh turned into a grunt as a spasm of pain hit him. “Gods have mercy,” he muttered, swallowing his agony. “The girl. Daenerys. Only a child, you were right... that’s why, the girl... the gods sent the boar... sent to punish me...” The king coughed, bringing up blood. “Wrong, it was wrong, I... only a girl... Varys, Littlefinger, even my brother... worthless... no one to tell me no but you, Ned... only you...”

“The girl,” the king said. “Daenerys. Let her live. If you can, if it... not too late... talk to them... Varys, Littlefinger... don’t let them kill her. And help my son, Ned. Make him be... better than me.” He winced. “Gods have mercy.”

 

[Jasta11]

More likely than not, yes.

Robert hates Targaryens, and if OK with Targaryen children being killed so long as he doesn't have to do it. Jon is not only part Targaryen, he's a living, breathing reminder of Robert's greatest failure as he sees it, having Lyanna be taken from him by Rheagar. I don't think he would take the babe and crash his head on the wall then and there, but he wouldn't be angry if something shameful happened to little Jon.

Ned himself thought so, and he probably knows Robert better than anyone. Plus, he promised to Lyanna.

I still give Robert some benefit of the doubt depending on how Ned handles it, he may stay his hand out of shame and not wanting to lose his only real friend.

[M_Tootles]

7 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Actually no. The majority of the people would think like you do, that this wasn't Ned's style. But those people forget some important details; Ned was too young and he didn't had a style back then. So something must had happened to create the Ned we know with his stupid ideas about honour and his broken promises.

Not sure I follow what you're saying. I'm not saying it wasn't Ned's "style", I'm saying he likely couldn't have slept with Ashara if he wanted to, because he wasn't attractive to women and Ashara wouldn't have fucked him. Catelyn makes it clear that Brandon was hot shit and Ned wasn't. He was short and plain compared to the tall, dashing Brandon. Even as Brandon is introducing Ned to Ashara, he's flirting with her -- of that I have no doubt given what we know about Brandon from Barbrey and what's alluded to by others ("Wild Wolf", etc.).

But "something" absolutely "happened" to help "create the Ned we know" and his obsession with honor and promises: that something IMO was his idolized older brother Brandon breaking his own oaths (of betrothal) and creating the Jon-mess Ned was still dealing with vis-a-vis Catelyn (and his own conscience, knowing he was disinheriting Jon, who was Brandon's heir) until his death.

[Minsc]

22 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

He knew that Cat could had harmed Jon; 

So he knows that Cat would had harmed Jon in a heartbeat.

Robert hadn't killed the Targ children until Dany had actively started to conspire against him. 

The Martells for revenge, after all Rhaegar abandoned Elia and her children for Lyanna and her child. There is nowhere in the books that it was told that Ned was afraid that Robert would had killed Jon, unlike Cat who Ned knew that she would had done it.

I like that you defend Robert in saying that he wouldn't hurt Jon despite him being the one to approve to the brutal murders of a toddler and infant while also ordering the murder of a young teen and her unborn child yet you attack Cat as being capable of hurting Jon with her worst crime is saying something nasty to a teen.

[Pastaeyes]

On 03/07/2016 at 10:23 PM, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Lyanna isn't someone who can be trusted because if she knew anything at all she wouldn't had eloped with Rhaegar. Ned on the other hand gave a promise to his dying sister and yet has told that Robert would never harm his family.

That is a logical fallacy. Just because she's made a mistake (questionabley) does not mean she cannot be trusted of matters regarding her own son.

[Pastaeyes]

Also I would like to point out we do not actually know what Ned promised her.

She could of made him promise to proclaim him king for all we know and Ned thought no best not for the kids sake.

 

I don't actually believe this is the case just playing devils advocate.

[Lrd Commander Midnight]

Robert would have definitely killed Jon if he could have gotten his hands on him. If Robert knew Ned Stark had the bastard child of Lyanna and Rhaegar he would demand it of Ned to have someone else put the child down. Now Ned being the oh so honorable man he is would have refused this request. Ned left Kings Landing after he and Robert argued over the brutal deaths of Rhaegars children-and of Jamie stabing the king through the back. If Robert had found out about John before Ned could tell him it was his bastard child Robert would have turned his wraith torwards the north and Ned Stark. Robert had a  unquenchable thirst of revenge torwards all Targaryens and has said he would kill any he could get his hands on. He obviously didn't have a problem with the violentdeaths of Rhaegars child and seeing as how he wanted a pregnant Danarys Targaryen killed he would have gone that far.

[sj4iy]

Of course he would.  There's absolutely nothing in the text that says he wouldn't.  He hates all Targaryens, dreams of kill Rhaegar every night, knows that the Targaryens are a threat to his throne, and rewarded Tywin Lannister after he ordered the Targaryen children butchered.  Ned even tells Cersei to run away because he knows that Robert would kill the children if he knew they were bastards born out of incest.  I don't know why people would think that Robert would do all of that and then show mercy to the son that he believes was born from the rape of the woman he loved more than anything or anyone in the world by the man he hated more than anything or anyone else in the world.  Makes no sense at all.

[DominusNovus]

9 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

Yes, but not in the same way. Much like how Cat was fearful of Jon making a claim on winterfell, Bob's bastard that would be an issue is Ederic Storm. He is taken care of though. Jon, is the blood of the last dragon and quite possibly the rightful heir of the Iron Throne, would represent the "true king" that folks like Barristan want to have. Tywin made sure the other kids of Rhaegar were brutally killed, why would he stop at Jon, especially if he though Jon to be a lowly bastard?  

That last sentence is somewhat contradictory in its logic.  If he's just a lowly bastard, there's no reason to worry about him in the first place.  And as for why he would stop at Jon, lets consider this as any shrewd man would.  Tywin is most certainly such a man.  And such a man would consider the possible ramifications of his actions, particularly a reasonable worst-case scenario:

Tywin manages to have Jon Snow, innocent young boy, under the protection of the Starks and pledged to serve the Nights Watch when he comes of age, killed.  This automatically sets the Starks against Tywin and anyone that stands with Tywin's action.  This exact course of action is pretty much confirmed by the first book, when Ned resigns in disgust over the order to kill Dany, someone whom he has never met, and who represents a far more legitimate threat to the regime than an un-legitimized bastard in a poor part of the realm, under the watchful and un-ambitious eye of the king's best friend.  So, automatically, the North is now opposed to the Westerlands.

The Riverlands will almost certainly side with the Starks, as they did in the Wot5K, due to their blood ties.

The Vale wanted to support the Starks in the Wof5K, but Lysa stopped that.  Jon Arryn would, at the very least, be more sympathetic to the Stark cause than Lysa ever was.

The Reach would have any inclination towards either side in this conflict, though they were loyal to the Targaryens, so it is not unreasonable to think they would not be inclined to side with the Westerlands.  Of course, depending on the year this all happens, there are various potential marriage alliances to be considered, particularly depending on which side can count on the Crown.

Dorne would most certainly be inclined to side against the Westerlands.  While they would not have any blood ties to Jon, the story of one of Rhaegar's children being murdered in cold blood by the Lannisters would be all too familiar a story to them.

The Iron Islands are a wildcard, but they'd likely just attack at opportunity if things get particularly hairy on the mainland.  Given that the richest and closest lands to them are the Westerlands, there is little upside for the Westerlands.

So, without considering the Crown, you have the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Martells against the Lannisters.  The Tyrells and Greyjoys are neutral wildcards, the Greyjoys belligerently so.

Now, the Crown.  The Crown, with the Stormlands in tow, is really at the whim of Robert, and his whims really do depend on his mood.  In a brewing conflict tending towards violence between a large fraction of his realm, what is the upside to him siding with the Lannisters?  Presume that he is grateful that Tywin off'd Jon.  What is better: to alienate 4 kingdoms out of 7, or to alienate 1 out of 7?  He could be privately grateful to Tywin, and then not lift a finger as his best friend and his mentor form a solid political alliance against Tywin and isolate the Lannisters.

Meanwhile, what is the upside for Tywin, in the case that more than half the realm does not oppose his action?  His daughter already is married to the king, which was his goal in the first place. What does killing one more royal un-legitimzed bastard do toward strengthening his grandchildren's claim, particularly when he hasn't lifted a finger to kill off the trueborn Targaryens or the other royal bastards?

In short, other than satisfying paranoia and pride, I see no benefit to Tywin in killing Jon.  And so much risk its not even funny.  He'd basically run the risk to kickstart the Wot5K in a much more precarious position for the Westerlands.  As it was, it took an absurd number of lucky breaks for the Lannisters to come out as well as they did in the actual war.

[Julia H.]

4 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

<snip>

When Rhaegar's two kids were killed, Tywin was able to reap the reward from Robert and to deny his responsibility towards the rest of the realm at the same time. The Martells weren't fooled by that, but they weren't able to do anything against Tywin for a long time so their opinion didn't matter. Tywin also made sure that the Freys and the Boltons took all the credit for the Red Wedding, while he quietly enjoyed the benefits. Granted, Tywin took full credit for the Castamere business but doing that was in his interest at the time and there was no danger of repercussion. 

If Tywin had wanted to have Jon Snow killed, he wouldn't necessarily have left his signature in the scene of the crime. While there is no immediate threat of a pro-Targaryen uprising, Tywin could take his time and wait for a convenient opportunity that would make the assassination look like an accident or a crime committed by random villains. (He would consider the assassination a pre-emptive measure.) To preserve peace, he would make sure he couldn't be associated with Jon Snow's death. If Jon Snow's true identity is still a general secret, it would be hard for Ned to openly accuse anyone without disclosing the motivation anyway, and if Robert knew who Jon Snow was, he would probably feel relief rather than anything else, so he wouldn't investigate too intensively. On the other hand, if Tywin could manage to implicate the Starks (a rival great house) in some sort of treasonous activity related to Jon Snow, he might do even that - but only if he thought it was in his interest and that he could win.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

18 hours ago, M_Tootles said:

Not sure I follow what you're saying. I'm not saying it wasn't Ned's "style", I'm saying he likely couldn't have slept with Ashara if he wanted to, because he wasn't attractive to women and Ashara wouldn't have fucked him. Catelyn makes it clear that Brandon was hot shit and Ned wasn't. He was short and plain compared to the tall, dashing Brandon. Even as Brandon is introducing Ned to Ashara, he's flirting with her -- of that I have no doubt given what we know about Brandon from Barbrey and what's alluded to by others ("Wild Wolf", etc.).

All women are superficial and only care about the look?

14 hours ago, Pastaeyes said:

That is a logical fallacy. Just because she's made a mistake (questionabley) does not mean she cannot be trusted of matters regarding her own son.

She mnade a mistake that ended in a war, she proves that she isn't capable of thinking clearly. She had no idea if Robert would had hurt him, if that is what she asked Ned to do. From all we know she could had asked Ned to not allow Jon to be crowned as the King.

[redtree]

I wonder why people keep on saying that Robert rewarded Tywin for the murder of 2 children, it was Jon Arryn's doing. Robert didn't want to get marry after Lyanna's death, it was Jon Arryn who pushed Robert to marry Cersei and made him his queen if that what people mean by reward, so the blame should be on Jon Arryn not Robert. 

[Julia H.]

19 minutes ago, redtree said:

I wonder why people keep on saying that Robert rewarded Tywin for the murder of 2 children, it was Jon Arryn's doing. Robert didn't want to get marry after Lyanna's death, it was Jon Arryn who pushed Robert to marry Cersei and made him his queen if that what people mean by reward, so the blame should be on Jon Arryn not Robert. 

Robert is the boss. His is the ultimate responsibility even if he lets others make the decisions in his name. 

[The Wolves]

23 minutes ago, redtree said:

I wonder why people keep on saying that Robert rewarded Tywin for the murder of 2 children, it was Jon Arryn's doing. Robert didn't want to get marry after Lyanna's death, it was Jon Arryn who pushed Robert to marry Cersei and made him his queen if that what people mean by reward, so the blame should be on Jon Arryn not Robert. 

Jon Arryn didn't make Robert do anything he didn't want to. 

Robert was more than okay to marry Cersei. Arryn suggested it, Robert agreed no one forced him. 

[OuttaOldtown]

13 minutes ago, redtree said:

I wonder why people keep on saying that Robert rewarded Tywin for the murder of 2 children, it was Jon Arryn's doing. Robert didn't want to get marry after Lyanna's death, it was Jon Arryn who pushed Robert to marry Cersei and made him his queen if that what people mean by reward, so the blame should be on Jon Arryn not Robert. 

Blame everyone but the king, by this logic you can absolve Dany for her negative impact on slavers bay since Jorah is the one who advised her to go there. I totally disagree with this logic, the hand is there to advise, it's the role of the King/Queen to follow it or go another direction..