UK Politics: The Love Song of A. B. de Pfeffel Johnson

[The Marquis de Leech]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Also, the 2011 act can also be repealed in Parliament, 

The logical step. It (and the European Communities Act 1972) both have to repealed anyway: it makes life easier to do it earlier.

Legally, I think the easiest thing to do is:

(1) Invoke Article 50.

(2) Repeal the European Union Act 2011, the European Communities Act 1972, and any other requisite Act.

(3) Pass fresh legislation that specifies the UK's formal date of Brexit as two years after the invocation of Article 50, and clarify that the UK will abide by EU law until that date. All EU regulations in place by the end of that two year period will remain in place until they are otherwise unpicked at a later date.

That allows two years to nut out the trade situation, and an unlimited length of time to undo the various residual EU regulations (a very lengthy task).

[Cadiva]

Just now, Emre Mor-mont said:

I am suggesting that we need to pay heed to the fact that we all live in bubbles, socially and cognitively, and our personal experiences are therefore unreliable evidence. If these figures are true, then yeah, that's good evidence. But so is the survey of the membership I've talked about earlier (which, by the way, was bad news for both sides, as I said at the time) and so are the opinion polls that show that Jeremy Corbyn's leadership has had no effect on the party's chances of winning an election.

Oh absolutely the case yes in a lot of instances and social media is a perfect storm for that, it's why I usually try and make sure I'm also listening and speaking to people in groups which aren't just Labour "think tanks".

I still don't agree that Corbyn can't be a good leader though, the general populous is being told that repeatedly by the mainstream media which has its own agenda for doing so. Having seen him speak in person, he's quite different than the persona which is being portrayed in both print and on the TV.

[The Marquis de Leech]

As for Corbyn, looks like the muppet rebels are folding. I honestly thought they'd at least try a bit longer, but this has to be the most counter-productive coup attempt ever. All it's done is strengthen Corbyn's hand (his opponents can hardly try again before the election), allows him his "the Lady's not for turning" moment,* and paints a great big target sign on the chief ringleaders for deselection.

*Thatcher was also considered unelectable once upon a time too. 

[mormont]

24 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Thatcher was also considered unelectable once upon a time too. 

Yeah. So were Michaels Foot and Howard.

[SeanF]

3 hours ago, Cadiva said:

I suspect we'll have to agree to disagree with this as my experience both personal with friends who have joined the Labour Party since Brexit and given their reasons as "because of Corbyn" and as a member of the EC of my local CLP, demonstrates the exact opposite.

Totally agree and this is the grass roots membership trying to do just that. Move the party back to the left of centre democratic socialist party it says we are on the Membership card.

The fact Corbyn's policies get referred to as "hard left" and his supporters as Trots and Marxists is a perfect demonstration of how far right the party moved in Blair's second term of office and under Gordon Brown.

FWIW I don't think that a Labour Party that put forward left wing economic policies would be at all unpopular.

The problem lies with left wing policies on issues like immigration and defence.

[Maltaran]

56 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

As for Corbyn, looks like the muppet rebels are folding. 

The Twitter hashtag is #ChickenCoup

[Talleyrand]

That Tugendhat chap seemed like a pretty good speaker on Question Time - he was remain, seems to be a party loyalist and while being an ex-soldier might not have the same play it does in America over here it does help a little bit for careers. If May wins I could see him doing pretty well within the party.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

17 hours ago, williamjm said:

It depends what you mean by the North. They haven't lost a significant number of their traditional seats in Northern England yet, although they maybe should be a bit worried about their long-term prospects if they can't pull themselves together. I think many of Corbyn's detractors think it's the loss of some of the more middle-class constituencies Blair won that's been the real problem for Labour's electoral prospects and they seem to think a less left-wing approach would do better in those areas. I think their fundamental problem is that they have to appeal to a number of different groups of voters and those groups often want contradictory things.

Of course, if you go further North then the Labour party's virtual annihilation in Scotland didn't help them either, but I'm not sure there's anything any Labour leader can do to reverse that in the short term.

Seats and votes are not the same thing. I will say what I mean by that in the next paragraph, I want to scratch Scotland of my bucket list first. Scotland is dead for Labour until further notice. I am somewhat curious if Sturgeon gets a second indyref going, and if she manages to win it. I am still sceptical about that. But I don't see the SNP imploding either way. The SNP has a huge advantage over Labour. The SNP is a regional party, that only has to push for Scotland's interest, while Labour (and Tories) has to capampaign throughout the UK (or whatever remains of it, if the SNP succeeds). Having that said, back to my starting remark.

Seats and votes are not the same thing. My guess (whatever it's worth) is, and Mormont (or anybody else for that matter) can correct me, that Labour is/was able to protect their seats thanks to a FPTP system. So the disenfranchised Labour voters, who do not show up for elections did not kill them as a whole electorally, but they showed up in bigger numbers on the Brexit referendum. I think the Blair expansion voters are not Labours biggest problem. If they felt a more left tax policy was a deal breaker, they would not have voted Blair (Tory lite if you will) in the first place, but sticked with the original brand. Of course Blair and Browne later managed to alienate quite a few of those cultural left (for need of a better word) middle class voters with their policies. Some probably went temporarily to the LibDems, who managed to hang themself when they helped Cameron to Downing Street, and ignored the pledge on tuition fees in 2010, and returned to Labour in 2015. The more severe problem for Labour will be a.) their traditional constituents of Blue Collar Union voters are going to die out, and b.) the disenfranchised remains of those voters will either not show up for elections, or will want to stick it to Westminster, and vote UKIP. And UKIP's anti-immigrants campaigning will imo find a fertile ground there.

If anybody has some charts on voter migration, esp. in the Labour strongholds, I would be really curious to see those numbers.

 

[A wilding]

FWIW the bubble I live in contains a fair number of lifetime middle class Labour supporters, and there is a pretty clear consensus amongst them.

Initially they were happy about Corbyn's election, because they wanted Labour to move back to the left from the Blairite centre ground. But over the last year or so they have become disillusioned with him and now think he is incompetent and needs to go. They see a Tory party in disarray, lurching from embarrassment to embarrassment, and they think Corbyn should be all over them. Instead, he seems to spend his time navel gazing and fighting irrelevant battles within his own party about such fringe issues as nuclear disarmament. They want someone prepared to compromise and reach out, rather than basking in his own ideological purity. The referendum was the last straw. My general impression is of considerable frustration.

 

[Hereward]

I'm worried that the Tory membership are about to follow the Labour model and elect an inexperienced, ideologically pure but generally clueless candidate. Again. I have had rows with my Tory Brexiteer friends about this, this week, trying to remind them how we demanded purity in the 90s, and completely ignored the actual goal. I really think Leadsom could win.

[mormont]

But H: she's a mother! That means she has a stake in the future! Unlike that childless harpy May, we presume.

 

[Talleyrand]

Sturgeon & Merkel have no children either - maybe this is just the edge the Tory party needs to get the Scots in the line and have Europe accepting our terms.

 

I'm no great fan of May but wasn't Leadsom's time as Economic Sectary to the Treasury regarded as not a great one and I don't remember many great praises of her time as Minister for Energy. Now I'm no great political expert but doesn't years of actual cabinet experience of one of the major ministries tend to trump "I'm a mum"?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Talleyrand said:

Sturgeon & Merkel have no children either - maybe this is just the edge the Tory party needs to get the Scots in the line and have Europe accepting our terms.

 

I'm no great fan of May but wasn't Leadsom's time as Economic Sectary to the Treasury regarded as not a great one and I don't remember many great praises of her time as Minister for Energy. Now I'm no great political expert but doesn't years of actual cabinet experience of one of the major ministries tend to trump "I'm a mum"?

Have you ever heard of Minister of Energy day? No? Me, neither. But we all know there's a mother's day. Case closed.

[polishgenius]

Given her reaction to The Times piece, it appears that Leadsom doesn't actually know how interviews work.

[dajamieson]

Politician shocked that things said to a Times reporter ended up reported in the Times. "I just don't understand" claimed mother of the future of the nation.

[mormont]

Loving this piece in the Guardian. But I am a total sucker for a Spinal Tap reference.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/09/andrea-leadsom-tory-leadership-am-dram-peasant-revolt

Quote

On Thursday morning Andrea Leadsom delivered her promised “major speech” on the economy like she’d just won a competition to deliver a major speech on the economy. All the eye-catching endorsements had been pouring in for Leadsom. Nigel Farage. Nick Griffin. Katie Hopkins. There had been rumours that fellow backer Boris Johnson would introduce her, but the former leadership favourite presumably regarded the chance to play the Spinal Tap to Andrea’s Puppet Show as simply too much perspective.

 

Quote

The address ended with her supporters being instructed by Leadsom backer Penny Mordaunt to march up to parliament to impress upon Tory MPs voting that day the need to do their duty. Andrea took a car herself, but it’s the thought that counts. To watch them make their way up Millbank was to picture The Walking Dead on the Countryside Alliance march. There was drill sergeant Tim Loughton MP. “What do we want?” he demanded. “Leadsom for leader!” they shouted back. “When do we want it?” he inquired. “NOW!” [...] The entire event was an am-dram peasants’ revolt metaphor against whichever section of the establishment former banker Andrea is pretending not to be part of.

 

[Northernmonkey]

23 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said:

Loving this piece in the Guardian. But I am a total sucker for a Spinal Tap reference.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/09/andrea-leadsom-tory-leadership-am-dram-peasant-revolt

 

 

Marina Hyde's brilliant. She's been on top form since the referendum. 

[Werthead]

I think Leadsom becoming leader now would be highly likely to reduce the Conservatives' chances of winning the next election. The woman is a buffoon.

Whether Labour would be in any position to capitalise on it is another question. Corbyn's Durham speech on social injustice was pretty good, I was rather startled that the BBC actually aired it.

[Maltaran]

Finally

 

Quote

 

Angela Eagle has said she will announce her bid for the leadership of the Labour Party on Monday.

Ms Eagle, who resigned as shadow business secretary last week, said leader Jeremy Corbyn had failed "to lead an organised and effective" party.

Mr Corbyn's spokesman insisted he would remain as leader of the party and would fight any leadership challenge.

 

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

Whether Corbyn needs the 51 MPs/MEPs to be on the ballot is the key question, but despite the whinging of Neil Kinnock (somehow a sudden expert on who is "electable") I can't see the NEC blocking him from the ballot. No-one wants courtroom drama here, never mind the blatantly undemocratic scenario of the membership not being allowed to vote for the person it actually wants, with the prospect of financial armageddon for the party as angry unions and members turn off the funds.

(Also, how tone deaf is it for the anti-Corbyn person to be someone who voted for the Iraq War?).