Leto Atreides

How long could Cersei realistically hold King's Landing and Casterly Rock?

64 posts in this topic

She literally has no allies left. They are setting her up to be the main antagonist, but it's hard to imagine how she could be a threat to anyone now.  She's surrounded by enemies and only holds 3 out of the 7 Kingdoms. With Lord Frey's death as well the last "Baratheon" (Tommen), I think we can assume the Riverlands and Stormlands won't stick with her. So all she has are the Lannister Armies, Jaime (who probbaly won't be into this whole Black Queen stuff), Qyburn & Zombie Gregor. 

Maybe Euron will join Cersei as his Queen instead of Daenerys, but that doesn't sound like much help.

I hope GRRM has some sort of giant twist for us before this is over. Maybe the Night King will quickly become the main villain, but that can only happen if his army crosses the wall and takes WInterfell. Or else why would anyone in the south care? 

 

Edited by Leto Atreides

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Here's what I see happening.

Cersei hears about Dany coming in

Cersei goes full "burn them all" and plans to blow up all of KL

Jaime kills her before she can do it and this time he kills himself as well

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well you can't hit Rene against the crown. She still has the biggest army and likely the biggest wealth. 

The north is not looking to kill Cersie, they are looking to become a separate kingdom so they don't pose a threat to her seat. The vale won't likely attack her either because they don't have a problem with her, it's likely LF who might do something. Reach and Dorne won't do nothing till Dany comes

 

So realistically speaking, she will hold it until Dany comes. Of course, it's possible that by the time she comes, the white walkers would also arrive and it won't be about birth right but who is able to lead people. Dany, Tyrion, Jon..Etc.

 

also, i believe I read that Season 7 will be able Cersies rule so you can assume that Dany most likely won't land in kings landing but Dorne

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I can't tell about casterly Rock but for me, realistically, I think about it like this  : a rumor will spread in the population of KL that Cersei destroyed the sept of Bealor and killed their beloved high sparrow, it will be an uprising from the people, she will play the police state until the people overcome her forces (Jaime will kill her before she put the fire in the rest of the wildfire) and destroy the red keep, I can say she can hold KL between a week to a month

Thought based on few things :

  • in the show, you can tell that the people love the high sparrow
  • the sept of baelor is a sacred place
  • in her dream, Daenerys was astonished by the destroyed Red Keep, clearly it's not her who did that
Edited by Future Null Infinity

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The Tyrell army is larger than the Lannister army, but they will wait on Dany.

So, it would depend on whether Larry Jamie stays loyal to her, which if he does then she will have no trouble controlling Lannister forces and gold cloaks, but her "rule" is not going to extend outside of King's Landing, she is going to have all she can content with when the residents start food riots, as there will be no food coming from Highgarden...as well as riots over the destruction of the country's holiest religious shrine, the murder of the HS and the Queen.

But, she will last as queen on the show as long as they want her to, my guess would be until the end of next season.

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She may not be able to hold the Westerlands now that she just killed the last Lord and his son. I don't understand how she has any power beyond the Crownlands.

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I think it's possible Euron will go to her now. Sure, she is bound to fall, but they could put up a fight with his huge fleet, her army and maybe some wildfire.

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Considering she pissed off at least half the Houses supporting her, I'm pretty sure she won't hold the throne for long. Probably even the Lannister bannermen are angry, because Kevan died in the Sept.

1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

The Tyrell army is larger than the Lannister army, but they will wait on Dany.

So, it would depend on whether Larry Jamie stays loyal to her, which if he does then she will have no trouble controlling Lannister forces and gold cloaks, but her "rule" is not going to extend outside of King's Landing, she is going to have all she can content with when the residents start food riots, as there will be no food coming from Highgarden...as well as riots over the destruction of the country's holiest religious shrine, the murder of the HS and the Queen.

But, she will last as queen on the show as long as they want her to, my guess would be until the end of next season.

Based on the way he looked at her, he probably won't stay loyal to her. What she did with the Sept is exactly the reason he killed the Mad King. 

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Just pay attention to the show hints expecially Bran visions. Just a reminder https://youtu.be/8gh0-4hOzyw?t=74

A dragon is flying over KL...all the chimneys are lit...winter has already come. Before that is the vision of an iron throne hall rotten in snow.

I think Dany will first land in stormlands, which is better for logistically than to arrive in Dorne and have all your troops move so long to north. This will take no more of 1 episode.I believe that at the time also the stormlands will be cold and snow starting to fall.

In Episode 2 Dany will have the first contacts with westerosi people and lords. Probably she will secure the support of the stormland. Cersei and Jamie in KL will get some news and prepare for the war to come. Jamie may even try to convice Cersei to abandone KL and just go with him to Casterly Rock. Cersei will refuse. Don't know what Jamie will do. Will he protect her with Lannister army until the end or will he abandone her to her destiny? Anyway I don't see him killing her at this point.

Episode 3 may contain the famous dragon scene. I think Dany is riding it, not to destroy KL but just to have a look around. Maybe she get the picture of how isolated Cersei his and that she has not to kill anyone other that Cersei. I am not sure she will try to get in talks sending Tyrion, but at the end she may just decide to go and burn the red keep in a similar way Cersei did with the sept of baelor.

My call is for Cersei to die in Episode 4. Don't know if this will be draggen up to episode 6 to just show for a couple of episodes how bad she is at ruling and how the city is falling due to her.

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she has wildfire and hostage of common people , its gonna be tricky

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Cersei's situation is vulnerable, but not as bad as people are making it out to be. I don't see a peasant revolt as being an option simply because of precedent. It didn't happen to any of the Targaryens, it was the nobles who overthrew him. It didn't happen to Robert or Joffrey despite their many flaws. Simply put they're uneducated and impoverished to the point where they defer to their local lords by default. The Faith was the closest thing to a populist movement and that was firmly crushed. As for the nobles, let's look at each of the Seven kingdoms.

Crownlands: Even if a large chunk of the city of King's Landing being blown up, it is still one of the largest cities in Westeros and is easily the hub of all trade in the Seven Kingdoms. To say nothing of the prestige the Iron Throne gives to whomever sits it.

Dorne: While I'm still maintaining hope that it will be swallowed by the huge plot hole there, the Sand Snakes somehow rule and want revenge against the Lannisters for killing some Martells so badly that they killed all the remaining Martells. Firmly in Dany's alliance.

Iron Islands: Euron is a wild card to say the least. His quest to give his big cock to the dragon queen seems to have been thwarted by Asha. Though there's another queen available and needing some help against a large fleet.

Riverlands: A questionable area. The Tully rebellion has been effectively crushed, though the Brotherhood without Banners seems to still be causing trouble unchecked. Walder Frey and his sons's death could have mixed results. House Frey is big enough that it's unlikely to disintegrate, even if there's some infighting. On the other hand, the immediate parties responsible for the Red Wedding were assassinated. That could be enough for most people. Though in theory Cersei could count on their support.

Stormlands: Likely also would be supporting Cersei by default. It's possible like in the novels there are some holdout Stannis forces here, but given he's dead there's little reason to hold out. Cersei is the wife of Robert Baratheon and the mother of Joffrey and Tommen Baratheon. That would carry some amount of weight. They're definitely not going to declare for Dany given they were the core of the Rebels against her father.

The North: Jon Snow has effectively consolidated the North after defeating the Boltons. But he's going to be looking to the north and not to the south, so he's no direct threat to the Iron Throne for the moment. Short of maintaining an effective garrison at Moat Cailin, he'll keep most of his forces in the North.

The Reach: The Queen of Thorns had declared against Cersei for revenge. I kinda wish they'd introduce Garlan Tyrell, even as a cousin or something. As awesome as Olenna is, it's hard to see her leading an army into battle.

The Vale: Questionable status to say the least. Some of their lords were chanting the King in the North. How serious they were remains to be seen. It's not impossible to see them declaring for Jon to get out from under Littlefinger. Especially if there's a marriage engagement between Robin and Sansa. Then again Baelish does exert considerable influence over Robin. Though at least in the short term, Jon would seem to be a threat to his vision of him and Sansa on the Iron Throne more than Cersei. It's also possible when Dany lands, he might see which way the wind is blowing and try and deliver the Vale to her. Regardless, I doubt Cersei would have the chance to send her armies against the Bloody Gate.

Westerlands: Easily the core of her support and let's face it, would stand to benefit from having a member of their liege lord's family on the Iron Throne. Jaime being disgusted at his sister's actions would be the only potential wrench in that. They're definitely not going to rally to Tyrion.

So her situation in my view is unstable but hardly untenable. She could in theory come out on top as things stand. In the end I think she's going to be her own worst enemy.

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13 hours ago, Leto Atreides said:

She literally has no allies left. They are setting her up to be the main antagonist, but it's hard to imagine how she could be a threat to anyone now.  She's surrounded by enemies and only holds 3 out of the 7 Kingdoms. With Lord Frey's death as well the last "Baratheon" (Tommen), I think we can assume the Riverlands and Stormlands won't stick with her. So all she has are the Lannister Armies, Jaime (who probbaly won't be into this whole Black Queen stuff), Qyburn & Zombie Gregor. 

Maybe Euron will join Cersei as his Queen instead of Daenerys, but that doesn't sound like much help.

I hope GRRM has some sort of giant twist for us before this is over. Maybe the Night King will quickly become the main villain, but that can only happen if his army crosses the wall and takes WInterfell. Or else why would anyone in the south care? 

 

Even with the approaching Dany armada and army, I think she could have held out for a long long time if she had the unwavering loyalty of her forces. But resentment of her must be ubiquitous throughout her remaining realms. 

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The North wont attack KL. Winter has come, making it impossible for any Southern army to march North to put down the 'rebellion'. There is no need for the North to march South. The North only want Independence, and with the advantages of the coming winter and holding Northern castles, they are not in a vulnerable position. The North and the Vale will only march South is Littlefinger manages to blindside Jon and Sansa and somehow lead both the Vale and the North. 

As for Cersei holding KL and Casterly Rock. Well considering only Jamie and Cersei remain, and the story will likely have them together, I suspect Jamie may task Bronn with the defence of Casterly Rock. I dont think Bronn will fight to the death, and will yield the castle to Tyrion (who will pronounce himself Lord of Casterly Rock). This would also allow the story line to progress toward Cersei feeling isolated, betrayed and trapped, which is whats needed before she does something outrageous enough for Jamie to kill her. 

Once thats settled, I can see a rapprochement between North & South under Jon & Dany respectively, in preparation for the coming WW invasion. 

Therefore, I think Cersei and Jamie's story will end in season 7, and they wont feature in the last season. 

I also suspect Tyrion might be the Mad Kings son. Which would mean three Targaryens. Aegon conquered the seven kingdoms with his sister and brother, and there are three dragons. Drogon wont be the only dragon to be ridden, the other two will also have someone on thier back - Jon and Tyrion and they blow the WW's away. Then one of them will end up ruling, and it wont be Dany. 

Edited by Adam141414

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Cersei's military backing is nearly all from the Lannisters. That is tenuous at best, with Jaime in control of that, and with presumably many knowing Kevan died in the Sept due to Cersei. I think Dany will encounter LESS resistance militarily to her invasion than she thinks, but only to have to shift her focus and deal with the Others.

That being said, the show has made the picture somewhat simpler than the books. They never followed up on the crown's debt to the Iron Bank, and in fact that whole storyline involved the High Sparrow, so that seems to have been jettisoned. 

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Euron comes into play here.  He and Cersei totally make a deal.  I suspect that Dany faces a setback.  

As for the North, Jon isn't going to be charging down to KL but I don't think that the evil Queen Cersei is going to be a fan of the North's Nexit from the 7 Kingdoms.  Cersei believes that Sansa was behind Joffrey's poisoning and I suspect with enough paranoia she could conjure up a scenario where Jon is also somehow out to get her.  Perhaps she will go charging up to the North despite a rational Cersei pointing out to Joffrey in Season 1 that conquering the North (cough: Russia: cough) is impossible.  Having the North (or perhaps the Reeds) ambush the Lannister army at Moat Caitlin might be a cool battle sequence.

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Jaime is Lord of Casterley Rock, is he not?  As such I don't understand how Cersei has even the Westerlands supporting her (not after that look of horror).  The most likely outcome for them is Jaime tries to reason with her, she refuses to leave KL, and he takes off with the bulk of the Lannister forces to Casterley Rock and waits there to see who comes out on top, like Tywin did with Aerys.  We may even see a letter from her once things get messy, that Jaime burns.  

Then Tyrion and Daenerys arrive.  I actually wonder if Tyrion will suggest they land in CR.  The "break" between Tyrion and Jaime is inverted in the show.  Tyrion loves Jaime 100% and has no reason to want to take CR from him like some here suggest - heck he's not even that ambitious and is totally devoted to Danys cause because she's given him the respect and validation he's always craved.

I imagine Jaime would have major qualms about supporting Aerys' daughter but he may agree to bend the knee if he is given a chance to try to save Cersei, somehow, before she is dethroned.  Of course it won't work and he'll end up killing her, or Tyrion will. 

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Cersei would be an underdog against Tyrrells and Martells alone, with Dany, some ironborn, then Unsullied, tens of thousands of Dothraki and three dragons it would be over within the hour. Needless to say Dany will face some setback before reaching Westeros or the won't be a fight at all, meaning Cersei will already be dead and the Iron throne destroyed before Dany reaches Westeros. 

There was no need to introduce Euron in the show unless he has some part to play yet and as many have guessed I believe there will be a battle at sea where Dany's huge army won't have as much of an advantage it would have on land. None of the forces she controlls have any experience of fighting at sea, except for Ashas forces.

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With all the [email protected] (literally for Cersei) flying around not much; during her walk of atonement, I failed to witness any positive sensation towards the Queen-Mother at that time, I believe the people of King's Landing were adamant on the matter, therefore I do not see anyone native to KL stepping up for Queen Cersei.

With the winter coming, people would prefer to warm up, and survive from hunger. If I remember in the show House Tyrell supports/used to support KL. Lest we forget Castles fall because of treason or hunger (or dragons whenever they are in availability). Food and hygiene would be a problem. Especially hygiene, during a siege, and especially now that a good amount of the city's underbelly appears to be devastated by wildfire.

So far Cersei has is watching her own demise, with no one helping in particular.

Cersei also happens to be in the Westeros's Most Wanted List - Arya's List; we are not aware whether she will claim her name for the Many-faced God, but it is in there.

House Tyrell: Olenna did not appear to be a happy camper whilse she was visiting the Sands, after what happened with her entire family; therefore I do not see any help coming from there.

House Sand (in lieu of Martell): No help coming from there as well, at least from my pov.

House Snow: Nope

House Stark: Wanted by the Crown

House Baratheon of Stormlands Banners: If threatened by Lannisters maybe, but it is not good to fight for a cause you do not believe in.

House Baratheon of Dragonstone: As above, but trickier to force without naval forces.

House Arryn: Well since it is LF (despite openly declaring for the Starks), no other reason because we talk about LF (his word is not exactly his bond)

House Greyjoy: It is obvious that Uncle Euron had child issues and suffers from PTSD from gallivanting and his current aqcuous resurrection. He wants to insert his intimittent organ to a Queen, if Dany is busy, Cersei will do fine. I really see a great potential on these two as a couple.

House Lannister: Well uncle Kev is dead, I am curious to see if Jamie can bring in what his father and uncle Kev could bring in the game. Tyrion on the other hand with the assistance of 3 dragons is hard to resist. If I were a Lannister vassal I would not put my hopes with Cersei against Tyrion.

For the sake of the season, I believe that Cersei will last well after the second half of the season; too early to die at the very first beginning. I personally quite enjoy her madness and demise to be honest.

 

 

 

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I think one of Cersei's biggest challenges will be finding warriors willing to be loyal to her after all she has done. She doesn't have a lot to offer people with the gold mine being empty, and I doubt she has time to sleep with all of them to secure their loyalty. Her best option is to start collecting corpses and have Qyburn turn them all into undead soldiers like Gregor. They may not be as huge as Gregor, but they would still have the durability of an undead, as well as the terrifying psychological effects such an army would have on the living. It would be fitting for Cersei too with her new armored black dress, she looks like queen of the damned already now.

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