How long could Cersei realistically hold King's Landing and Casterly Rock?

[Einheri]

Well, Dany has to get to King's Landing first, and she will probably have to deal with Euron on the way (an attack on her fleet early next season is the most likely scenario IMO), so she might not make it there until perhaps episode 5 or 6 or so.

Then there is the matter of taking the city, which will likely be defended by what remains of the Lannister army as well as a large number of Goldcloacks, so maybe between 10-20 000 troops. Not a cakewalk by any means, but Cersei is not exactly popular with the citizens, and this will only get worse after she burned down the Great Sept (plus whatever shenanigans she might pull off in the future), so it also seems likely that the city itself will turn against her once Dany is on the doorstep. Heck, by the time she gets there King's Landing might already have been reduced to a smoking ruin (and it will probably end up in that state no matter if it's taken with or without opposition judging from the vision she had in the House of the Undying). In any case, I think that Cersei will probably end up dead before episode 7 begins.

[Lost Time]

The Tyrell forces alone should have seized King's Landing the day of the Sept burning (or relatively soon thereafter) and detained Cersei while killing all of the goldcloaks. I know the show has to set up the main conflict for S7, but Lady Olenna should have been sitting with Randall Tarly planning out all the different ways they were going to massacre them some Lannisters instead of sitting about in Dorne trading barbs with a mistress and some bastards.

As it stands now, the Lannisters are definitely the underdogs. We'll see how Euron reacts to the new situation. If he finds out that his niece and nephew have already co-opted Dany, then he might just try to ally with Cersei.

 

 

[JMJ]

Also, interestingly recall that when Dany was dumping Daario, he suggested landing at Casterly Rock as a suggestion to her. It may have been a throwaway line, but then again, it may come back as prescient.

[Cryler]

I see Vary's leading a group of Unsullied through the tunnels straight to the Red Keep while King's Landing is besieged.

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

Here's what I would've done to make Cersei's position less dire (and therefore more threatening):

Have Cersei write mystery letters throughout the season, Tywin-style. 

When Sam goes to Horn Hill, Randyll comments on those weak Tyrells, letting a bunch of Sparrows imprison that pansy Loras (remember this is Randyll we're talking about here) as the Ironborn reap and pillage as they please around the coasts of the Reach. 

Then, in the finale, at Cersei's coronation, she welcomes - surprise! - Randyll and Dickon. They bent the knee to her as she names Randyll the new Lord Paramount of the Reach as well as her new Master of Laws, to replace the traitorous Tyrells who blew up the Sept of Baelor and killed the most holy High Septon and many nobles, including themselves, in a dreadful retaliation for the (fair) punishment of the Knight of Flowers. 

That's it. With that simple move, Cersei still has part of the Reach to support her and the detour to Horn Hill doesn't look as pointless. 

[HeroesAndVillains]

Not long. Even assistance from Euron will be but a plaster on a gaping sword wound.

[Facebookless Man]

Zero seconds. Realistically she wouldn't have anything to hold in the first place.

[brightflame princess]

I see a few people have said she will hold KL until dany comes, but she didn't destroy all of the faith militant. I think they will take it from her, or at least try. And I think they will round up small folk to help the fight. The small folk loved the high sparrow right? Because he spoke for them?

Cersei really must be crazy.. to murder the tyrells. And she didn't even kill olenna, who is one of the last people I'd want as my enemy. What a stupid move. She already has dorne against her, and the north wont fight for her. She literally sealed her fate. 

[Wyl of Wyl]

WHAT IF - Littlefinger offers to marry Cersei? He sorts of conrols one largest armies left and is just sneaky enough to pull off some shit like that

[Kaptajn Congoboy]

It depends on how much the showrunners want to draw out the next two seasons.

They could have Jaime back her, which gives her the Lannister troops. They could have Jaime not back her and the Lannister troops for some reason side with an obviously nutbag "Queen" who is not the heir to Casterly Rock. Then she would have the Gold cloaks and The Lannister troops. She still has no answer for  Daenerys' dragons, big fleet or overwhelming numerical superiority. If Daenerys only had the Dothraki (who are not skilled at siegecraft) they could still starve King's Landing out pretty fast - the city is dependent on food supplies being brought in as we saw during Stannis' siege - it isn't an ideal strongpoint. But she has the Dornish and Tyrell forces, that can lay down a proper siege, and she has her dragons.

She could get Euron's fleet if they allow him to magically build it in time (which they will or the entire Ironborn dynastic strife plot makes no sense). Unfortunately, Daenarys has her dragons, that fleets are very vulnerable to. 

So even in her best case situation, she will lose fast. Unless they continue to allow silly stuff to happen and somehow make her more than a speed bump. Possibly, Littlefinger could complicate things.

Or, they could do what they probably will have to do - make the Others' invasion the main focus of the next two seasons. They have to show its effects - harsh winter, Wight hordes, the fall of the Wall, nasty stuff happening to Westeros- or they are the biggest tease villains in TV history. In that case, Cersei will be a speed bump in the first episodes of the next season and Daenarys and Jon will try to find some way to deal with the invasion (probably involving dragons arriving in the nick of time), likely settling their differences when it becomes clear that he is her bastard nephew.

[TwiceBorn]

4 hours ago, Wyl of Wyl said:

WHAT IF - Littlefinger offers to marry Cersei? He sorts of conrols one largest armies left and is just sneaky enough to pull off some shit like that

Interesting option. But would work only if Euron kills Dany and her dragons.

[Lord Lannister]

Daenerys Stormborn returns to Dragonstone only to be hit by a storm as large as the one on the day of her birth. It's happened often enough in real history. You could even have Cersei make a quip about a divine wind saving them.

[Sir Matthis Light]

26 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Daenerys Stormborn returns to Dragonstone only to be hit by a storm as large as the one on the day of her birth. It's happened often enough in real history. You could even have Cersei make a quip about a divine wind saving them.

 

 

[ivosan]

Her position is delicate and unstable. 

As someone said above even a popular revolt could topple her.  and with good reasons.

 

 

[Ser Wun Wun]

There's no Aegon to swoop in and take the capital from her.  Jon's probably not marching an army south with the WW threat present.  Euron is after Dany, not Cersei.  So in the show only Dany can take it from her, and Euron is probably going to attack her before she can invade KL.  

So Cersei will hold it longer than one might expect.  13 episodes left, I think she could hold it for like 7-10 of them.  End of S7 to as far as the middle of S8 possibly.    

 

[*Deidre*]

On 7/2/2016 at 2:56 PM, Red Tiger said:

Here's what I see happening.

Cersei hears about Dany coming in

Cersei goes full "burn them all" and plans to blow up all of KL

Jaime kills her before she can do it and this time he kills himself as well

Oh my gosh, I can see this happening too. Why do you think he'd kill himself as well, though? 

[Rubicante]

On 7/2/2016 at 0:56 PM, Red Tiger said:

Here's what I see happening.

Cersei hears about Dany coming in

Cersei goes full "burn them all" and plans to blow up all of KL

Jaime kills her before she can do it and this time he kills himself as well

I'm expecting King's Landing to play out in a similar fashion to what happened in season 6.  Which basically means absolutely nothing will happen until the last episode, in which case I agree with your predictions.  I can see an alliance of some sort between Cersei and Euron, so I suppose that could fill some of the time.  Otherwise we're going to have lots of scenes in King's Landing where

1. Cercei smirks and drinks

2. Cersei talks in a quiet and reserved fashion

3. Cersei checks in on Septon Unella to see how her torture is progressing

[Cron]

On 7/2/2016 at 9:56 AM, Leto Atreides said:

She literally has no allies left. They are setting her up to be the main antagonist, but it's hard to imagine how she could be a threat to anyone now.  She's surrounded by enemies and only holds 3 out of the 7 Kingdoms. With Lord Frey's death as well the last "Baratheon" (Tommen), I think we can assume the Riverlands and Stormlands won't stick with her. So all she has are the Lannister Armies, Jaime (who probbaly won't be into this whole Black Queen stuff), Qyburn & Zombie Gregor. 

Maybe Euron will join Cersei as his Queen instead of Daenerys, but that doesn't sound like much help.

I hope GRRM has some sort of giant twist for us before this is over. Maybe the Night King will quickly become the main villain, but that can only happen if his army crosses the wall and takes WInterfell. Or else why would anyone in the south care? 

 

Good stuff, and good name (I read all the Dune books, they were awesome, simply incredible)

How long can Cersei hold power you basically ask?  

Answer:  Not long, and I strongly predict she won't hold it for long, either.

As you say, she is VERY weak, and I would add to what you wrote the fact that absolutely overwhelming forces are headed her way, imminently.  From what we saw of Dany and her dragons, it appeared to me that Dany and her 3 dragons could annihilate King's Landing all by themselves, if Dany wanted to.    I've been rewatching Season 3 on Blu-Ray, and in the scene where Dany tricks the guy (Kraznys?) into giving her the Unsullied by telling him she will give him just one of her dragons, Jorah urges her not to do it, saying no army is worth a dragon, and from what I saw in Episode 609, I'd say Jorah was right.

Also, from an even more practical standpoint, we've been told there are only 13 episodes left, TOTAL.  My guess is that Cersei will be dethroned within 3 or 4 episodes (maybe even less) so the forces of Life have time to unite against and defeat the forces of Death (White Walkers, Others, Night's King).  

That's the big finale to ASOIAF, not the battle to dethrone Cersei Lannister.

[Rory Snow]

Seems to me Cersei has no support from 6 of the 7 Kingdoms. She presumably has Jaime's army but 2 locations to defend, King's Landing & Casterly Rock. Given that she prob'ly isn't aware that the Rock is in danger, it's likely Jaime's army will defend KL, especially when Cersei finally gets word that Dany is on the way. In time, word of the events in KL will reach Euron which will lead him to move on Casterly Rock and perhaps leverage that into a marriage pact with Cersei. That will give Cersei a navy with which to battle Dany, except... Dragons, Euron has no ability to counter dragons. Similarly KL can withstand a siege for quite some time, except once again... Dragons (see Harrenhall).

At which point this....

On 7/2/2016 at 2:56 PM, Red Tiger said:

Cersei goes full "burn them all" and plans to blow up all of KL

Jaime kills her before she can do it and this time he kills himself as well

...becomes very possible. Remember Cersei was about to off herself and her son when she thought Stannis was ready to conquer KL, she's only more insane now so blowing up King's Landing doesn't seem a stretch.

That's a bunch of moving pieces and it takes time for it all to occur, so my best guess for the end of Cersei's reign is the next to last episode (ep 5 or 6) of season 7. That leaves room for the White Walkers breaching the Wall in the finale.

[Cragen]

I think Cersie will send Lannister army north, she wants Sansa head on pike. She would form some kind of alliance with Euron. We have only 13 episodes left so I think southern war will be over by end of season.