Problem with Dorne Dany alliance.

[khal drogon]

2 hours ago, Lyin' Ned said:

No, she would only have sex with a person like show Ellaria. 

Are we forgetting that Daario betrayed his partners and suggested a Meereen Red Wedding?

Apples and Oranges. A sellsword killing another sellsword is much different than someone killing their own liege lord. It's like comparing Mountain killing Vargo Hoat versus Roose killing Robb.

[khal drogon]

54 minutes ago, Trump the Builder said:

something has to go down here.  the problem is that you have a lot of people coming together, but all have different reasons for wanting to join with Dany.  Yara just wants to rule the iron islands.  Dorne still wants revenge for what the Lannisters did to the Red Viper and Elia Martell.  The Tyrell's want revenge on the Lannister's as well - but have always been trying to position themselves to take a high position in King's Landing as well.  I just feel that at some point these forces are all going to collide and there will be some kind of a civil war amongst Dany's troops which devastates her forces and maybe takes out a dragon or two.  There has to be some way to cull her forces - she is way too powerful and we all know this is not just going to go down the way it seems most likely too.  There will be twists for sure.

I wish they do that. An alliance like Dany's should have problems co-existing. I wish they explore that instead of making it a united alliance of good vs evil.

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

9 minutes ago, khal drogon said:

Apples and Oranges. A sellsword killing another sellsword is much different than someone killing their own liege lord. It's like comparing Mountain killing Vargo Hoat versus Roose killing Robb.

It's not that different. They're both untrustworthy, exceedingly cruel people. 

[illinifan]

13 minutes ago, khal drogon said:

I wish they do that. An alliance like Dany's should have problems co-existing. I wish they explore that instead of making it a united alliance of good vs evil.

I think this will be interesting.  I also want Dany to suffer some defeats.  

The entire Dorne plot for me could have been more interesting if Doran had executed Ellaria rather than Ellaria staging a coup.  They could have had him react to Myrcella's death and a scene where he says that he has been plotting for years and working with Varys and that she ruined it.  However, we had to go with strong womenz theme instead.

[The Fattest Leech]

4 hours ago, khal drogon said:

Why are you making me hate the show even more?:(

I didn't write it. I just report it. 

With a such a contradictory character lineup like this, I can almost give the Varys poor editing/ ship teleporting issue a pass. 

 

Almost. 

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, illinifan said:

I think this will be interesting.  I also want Dany to suffer some defeats.  

The entire Dorne plot for me could have been more interesting if Doran had executed Ellaria rather than Ellaria staging a coup.  They could have had him react to Myrcella's death and a scene where he says that he has been plotting for years and working with Varys and that she ruined it.  However, we had to go with strong womenz theme instead.

My guess is that some of the forces under her command will carry out some appalling atrocity, alienating people from her.

[House_Tony_Stark]

4 hours ago, Trump the Builder said:

something has to go down here.  the problem is that you have a lot of people coming together, but all have different reasons for wanting to join with Dany.  Yara just wants to rule the iron islands.  Dorne still wants revenge for what the Lannisters did to the Red Viper and Elia Martell.  The Tyrell's want revenge on the Lannister's as well - but have always been trying to position themselves to take a high position in King's Landing as well.  I just feel that at some point these forces are all going to collide and there will be some kind of a civil war amongst Dany's troops which devastates her forces and maybe takes out a dragon or two.  There has to be some way to cull her forces - she is way too powerful and we all know this is not just going to go down the way it seems most likely too.  There will be twists for sure.

She actually isn't as powerful as people make her out to be. In siege warfare the attacking army should always have at least twice the number of defenders or the assault most likely will fail. The Lannister army alone + the Kings Landing forces are around half of Danny's forces. If you throw in the Iron Islands and the Stormlands then they equal Danny's forces and have home field advantage.

And if Danny was fighting the North/Riverlands/Vale alliance she would straight up lose in my opinion. She does not really have anything in her army that can effectively combat mounted knights aside from three dragons. And dragons as powerful as they are have shown to still be susceptible to spears and arrows.

[Trump the Builder]

3 minutes ago, House_Tony_Stark said:

She actually isn't as powerful as people make her out to be. In siege warfare the attacking army should always have at least twice the number of defenders or the assault most likely will fail. The Lannister army alone + the Kings Landing forces are around half of Danny's forces. If you throw in the Iron Islands and the Stormlands then they equal Danny's forces and have home field advantage.

And if Danny was fighting the North/Riverlands/Vale alliance she would straight up lose in my opinion. She does not really have anything in her army that can effectively combat mounted knights aside from three dragons. And dragons as powerful as they are have shown to still be susceptible to spears and arrows.

first, i think you severely underestimate dragons.  they can win a siege pretty much by themselves, and it would be very difficult for any arrows or spears to be thrown high enough and accurately enough to bring down a dragon if there are three swirling overhead along with an army attacking.  

 

second, the sizes of the armies you mention is up for debate.  the GoT wiki has the army sizes as the following:

Crownlands - 15K

Lannister - 50K

North - 45K

Riverlands - 45K

Vale - 45K

Stormlands - 30K

Iron Islands 20K

Dorne - 50K

Tyrell - 100K

Dothraki - 100K

Unsullied - 8K

 

So, by my calculation it looks like Dany's army totals 258K?  Hell, lets round that way down to 230K because some of the Unsullied have bit it and maybe some of the Tyrell army went with the KL explosion - and because I'll be generous and assume the lowest numbers possible.  The Lannisters and the crown have a measly combined 65K troops.  Even if you add that to the Iron Islands and the Stormlands you are only at 115K.  Dany doubles the size of that alliance - and it's not given they would even join to fight her.  If you want to unite everyone else in Westeros against her, then maybe it becomes more of a even 1 for 1 person fight, but you still can't accommodate for the 3 dragons.  Yes, the army fortified in the castle has the advantage, but just for example - the Targ army (with 3 dragons) was able to defeat a Reach army that was 5 times as big during the war of conquest.  So you damn well better believe that those 3 dragons made a huge impact.  And as far as numbers go, the Targs only lost 100 men in that battle while the injured/casualty toll hit at least 15K on the Reach side before they surrendered.  

[House_Tony_Stark]

56 minutes ago, Trump the Builder said:

first, i think you severely underestimate dragons.  they can win a siege pretty much by themselves, and it would be very difficult for any arrows or spears to be thrown high enough and accurately enough to bring down a dragon if there are three swirling overhead along with an army attacking.  

 

second, the sizes of the armies you mention is up for debate.  the GoT wiki has the army sizes as the following:

Crownlands - 15K

Lannister - 50K

North - 45K

Riverlands - 45K

Vale - 45K

Stormlands - 30K

Iron Islands 20K

Dorne - 50K

Tyrell - 100K

Dothraki - 100K

Unsullied - 8K

So, by my calculation it looks like Dany's army totals 258K?  Hell, lets round that way down to 230K because some of the Unsullied have bit it and maybe some of the Tyrell army went with the KL explosion - and because I'll be generous and assume the lowest numbers possible.  The Lannisters and the crown have a measly combined 65K troops.  Even if you add that to the Iron Islands and the Stormlands you are only at 115K.  Dany doubles the size of that alliance - and it's not given they would even join to fight her.  If you want to unite everyone else in Westeros against her, then maybe it becomes more of a even 1 for 1 person fight, but you still can't accommodate for the 3 dragons.  Yes, the army fortified in the castle has the advantage, but just for example - the Targ army (with 3 dragons) was able to defeat a Reach army that was 5 times as big during the war of conquest.  So you damn well better believe that those 3 dragons made a huge impact.  And as far as numbers go, the Targs only lost 100 men in that battle while the injured/casualty toll hit at least 15K on the Reach side before they surrendered.  

We actually saw on the show that's not the case. It may be in the books but keep in mind there is a difference. In the show do you remember when the single Dragon attacked the Sons of the Harpy in the arena. They were by no means trained soldiers and had very primitive weapons. And they were able to greatly injure the dragon with around 200 or less soldiers. Dragons whether it be GOT, LOR, WoW..are very dangerous when they are not the focus of an attack. Because they can kill large numbers of soldiers quickly and demoralize armies. But when you are specifically targeting them they are a very large target that will die with sustained projectiles.

And your numbers are very off quoting http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Armies  which I guess is a valid source states the Vale army can muster 80-100k alone. I think you are quoting me somewhat from a previous post I made my own deductions for the Westeros armies. Such as putting the North at 25-30 instead of 45k. This must also be done for her forces.

The unsullied for example, she started with 8k. Many of them died from attacks from Sons of the Harpy, money of them died when the ships were set on fire, she has also lost some in her small battles. Considering she has not gotten new recruits she can't possibly have more than 4k of them left.

The Dothraki I'm going to go out on a limb and say she does not have all of them. Because the army we saw charging into the city was not 100,000 men. And quote "Khalasars in the Dothraki sea have been known to reach fifty thousand[23] or even one hundred thousand[24] in size, although not all are warriors." So realistically probably half of the 100,000 Dothraki are soldiers IF that many.  That would be like saying Rhode Island has a national guard of 1 million soldiers. Out of the population more than half of it is always elderly, women, and children.

And I agree with you that this is all speculation but let's also use reason. Danny's army is only 100k or so unless she has soldiers that don't die and has Grandma Dothraki soldiers charging into battle.

[House_Tony_Stark]

So let's add them up using realistic numbers and I'll still give Danny higher numbers than what she should have.

50k Dothraki, 6k Unsullied, 100 Greyjoy ships, 50 wise master ships, and you can't expect Dorne or House Tyrell to lend their full strength because then they would be leaving their cities defenseless. 25k Dorne, 60k Tyrell.

So may disagree on some points but I think both of us can agree that her army isn't over 200k...If it were let me give you this crazy number. If she has 200 ships & 200k soldiers she would have ONE THOUSAND soldiers on every single one of those tiny ships that hold like 50..... And I just looked, those boats didn't even look like they had that many on them.

So I'm actually starting to believe she does not even have 100k soldiers....To even fit 200 men per ship she would need a fleet of 500 which we literally confirmed she doesn't have. Because the 100 Greyjoy ships were a much larger fleet than what she had.

[dsug]

Im sure it will come up. Daenerys doesn't like killing children, Lannisters or not. If she doesn't kill them herself, I'm sure at least one of the Sand Snakes will tragically die in battle. 

[Trump the Builder]

1 hour ago, House_Tony_Stark said:

We actually saw on the show that's not the case. It may be in the books but keep in mind there is a difference. In the show do you remember when the single Dragon attacked the Sons of the Harpy in the arena. They were by no means trained soldiers and had very primitive weapons. And they were able to greatly injure the dragon with around 200 or less soldiers. Dragons whether it be GOT, LOR, WoW..are very dangerous when they are not the focus of an attack. Because they can kill large numbers of soldiers quickly and demoralize armies. But when you are specifically targeting them they are a very large target that will die with sustained projectiles.

And your numbers are very off quoting http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Armies  which I guess is a valid source states the Vale army can muster 80-100k alone. I think you are quoting me somewhat from a previous post I made my own deductions for the Westeros armies. Such as putting the North at 25-30 instead of 45k. This must also be done for her forces.

The unsullied for example, she started with 8k. Many of them died from attacks from Sons of the Harpy, money of them died when the ships were set on fire, she has also lost some in her small battles. Considering she has not gotten new recruits she can't possibly have more than 4k of them left.

The Dothraki I'm going to go out on a limb and say she does not have all of them. Because the army we saw charging into the city was not 100,000 men. And quote "Khalasars in the Dothraki sea have been known to reach fifty thousand[23] or even one hundred thousand[24] in size, although not all are warriors." So realistically probably half of the 100,000 Dothraki are soldiers IF that many.  That would be like saying Rhode Island has a national guard of 1 million soldiers. Out of the population more than half of it is always elderly, women, and children.

And I agree with you that this is all speculation but let's also use reason. Danny's army is only 100k or so unless she has soldiers that don't die and has Grandma Dothraki soldiers charging into battle.

i like having this discussion with you - lets keep it ongoing.  i can agree that some of the numbers we are both using are probably flawed.  ill accept that the unsullied are smaller in numbers and that the dothraki probably are as well - so we can go with half of each number and come up with 54K total between those two.  one thing that really bolsters her army right now is the addition of the Tyrell's and Dornish armies.  Both of them have not seen combat recently, which means their numbers should be near the top of their estimation.  Also, for what its worth, George RR Martin himself stated that the Dornish army is equal in strength to the North and the Vale.  So, at worst, I think you can safely triple her 54K to get 150K+ along with the 3 dragons.  That should be enough to conquer anyone IMO - regardless of who is offering any aid.  

Also, I think that your point about everyone not sending their total forces is 100% true, but probably works against your argument of the Westerosi banding together to fend of Dany's army.  I say this because the Dornish and the Tyrell's are out for vengeance - you can tell that Lady Olena has nothing to lose.  I wouldn't be surprised if she sent all that she had since they are on the offense in this battle.  Anyone lending aid to King's Landing, for example, would be foolish to send a big portion of their troops when it's likely they may also be attacked - let alone the fact that Cersei has 0 supporters at the present time.  

Last but not least, I can agree that when a dragon lands on the ground (like Drogon did in the arena), they can be susceptible to taking damage from arrows, spears, etc.   During a war like the one that is coming to Westeros, I highly doubt that Dany will have her dragons landing in the middle of such a tight space with assailants surrounding them.  If they remain in the sky, the game is over.

[Trump the Builder]

1 hour ago, House_Tony_Stark said:

So let's add them up using realistic numbers and I'll still give Danny higher numbers than what she should have.

50k Dothraki, 6k Unsullied, 100 Greyjoy ships, 50 wise master ships, and you can't expect Dorne or House Tyrell to lend their full strength because then they would be leaving their cities defenseless. 25k Dorne, 60k Tyrell.

So may disagree on some points but I think both of us can agree that her army isn't over 200k...If it were let me give you this crazy number. If she has 200 ships & 200k soldiers she would have ONE THOUSAND soldiers on every single one of those tiny ships that hold like 50..... And I just looked, those boats didn't even look like they had that many on them.

So I'm actually starting to believe she does not even have 100k soldiers....To even fit 200 men per ship she would need a fleet of 500 which we literally confirmed she doesn't have. Because the 100 Greyjoy ships were a much larger fleet than what she had.

do we know for a fact that she only has 200 ships?  it seems given that Yara and Theon brought her 100, but how many did she get from the masters and how many did the Dornish and the Tyrells give her?  According to the wiki, the Reach may have as many as 200 ships.  I can't find anywhere how many ships the Dornish may have or how many the Master's may have had as well.  An internet article estimated that there were 350 ships in the closing shot of season 6, so I'm assuming she must have even more than that.  Those additional ships should help to house those extra bodies!

[Desert Fox]

The bigger question is who the hell is opposing her? The Lannisters have what? 25k, maybe? Riverlands armies got totally destroyed. Maybe 10k? If they are loyal to the Lannisters? The death of the King and the installation of Cersei might cause them to rebel against the Freys again.

Vale and the North can't and wouldn't send troops.

I actually think it would be much more interesting if the War for Dawn happened BEFORE the battle for the iron throne. S7 opens with a white walker attack on the wall en masse. Dany's fleet reaches Sun Spear just to get word of the attack and she has to pull a Stannis. In the S7 finale, humanity defeats them and then S8 is the fight for the 7 kingdoms.

[Osric]

On 5/7/2016 at 8:08 AM, Trump the Builder said:

something has to go down here.  the problem is that you have a lot of people coming together, but all have different reasons for wanting to join with Dany.  Yara just wants to rule the iron islands.  Dorne still wants revenge for what the Lannisters did to the Red Viper and Elia Martell.  The Tyrell's want revenge on the Lannister's as well - but have always been trying to position themselves to take a high position in King's Landing as well.  I just feel that at some point these forces are all going to collide and there will be some kind of a civil war amongst Dany's troops which devastates her forces and maybe takes out a dragon or two.  There has to be some way to cull her forces - she is way too powerful and we all know this is not just going to go down the way it seems most likely too.  There will be twists for sure.

Yes, remember Elia's childs was Targaryen, Danaeris nephews and heirs to the Iron Throne, so in pointing this out the Sand bitches have a good bussines with Dan.

[Biffins]

On 7/5/2016 at 2:08 PM, Trump the Builder said:

Dorne still wants revenge for what the Lannisters did to the Red Viper and Elia Martell.  

The Lannisters didn't do anything to the Red Viper. He chose to be Tyrion's champion and he lost the fight against the Mountain fair and square. There were no shennanigans involved in that fight. How are the Lannisters to blame for the Red Viper's death?

[Trump the Builder]

18 hours ago, Biffins said:

The Lannisters didn't do anything to the Red Viper. He chose to be Tyrion's champion and he lost the fight against the Mountain fair and square. There were no shennanigans involved in that fight. How are the Lannisters to blame for the Red Viper's death?

i get it, not directly... but essentially they chose the Mountain as the champion to go against the Red Viper.  Yes, I know he wanted that matchup all along, but you damn well know that Ellaria blames them for it and wants revenge as she says to Doran and I quote " Your brother was murdered... and you sit here in the Water Gardens staring at the sky and doing nothing"

[House_Tony_Stark]

On 7/5/2016 at 4:05 PM, Trump the Builder said:

do we know for a fact that she only has 200 ships?  it seems given that Yara and Theon brought her 100, but how many did she get from the masters and how many did the Dornish and the Tyrells give her?  According to the wiki, the Reach may have as many as 200 ships.  I can't find anywhere how many ships the Dornish may have or how many the Master's may have had as well.  An internet article estimated that there were 350 ships in the closing shot of season 6, so I'm assuming she must have even more than that.  Those additional ships should help to house those extra bodies!

Well, we don't really have concrete evidence just what her fleet size is. What I was judging by is that she started with zero after her fleet was burned. Then the wise masters attacked with a decently large fleet but them not being a major Naval power it's safe to say it was probably 100 or less ships. And it's just very odd to think that the Greyjoy fleet of 100 was made to seem like it was a significant portion of her fleet. If she just had 250+ other ships laying around I don't see why they made it seem like she could not set sail without them?

And good catch with the reach! I did not factor in them throwing in Naval support. 

[House_Tony_Stark]

On 7/5/2016 at 3:57 PM, Trump the Builder said:

i like having this discussion with you - lets keep it ongoing.  i can agree that some of the numbers we are both using are probably flawed.  ill accept that the unsullied are smaller in numbers and that the dothraki probably are as well - so we can go with half of each number and come up with 54K total between those two.  one thing that really bolsters her army right now is the addition of the Tyrell's and Dornish armies.  Both of them have not seen combat recently, which means their numbers should be near the top of their estimation.  Also, for what its worth, George RR Martin himself stated that the Dornish army is equal in strength to the North and the Vale.  So, at worst, I think you can safely triple her 54K to get 150K+ along with the 3 dragons.  That should be enough to conquer anyone IMO - regardless of who is offering any aid.  

Also, I think that your point about everyone not sending their total forces is 100% true, but probably works against your argument of the Westerosi banding together to fend of Dany's army.  I say this because the Dornish and the Tyrell's are out for vengeance - you can tell that Lady Olena has nothing to lose.  I wouldn't be surprised if she sent all that she had since they are on the offense in this battle.  Anyone lending aid to King's Landing, for example, would be foolish to send a big portion of their troops when it's likely they may also be attacked - let alone the fact that Cersei has 0 supporters at the present time.  

Last but not least, I can agree that when a dragon lands on the ground (like Drogon did in the arena), they can be susceptible to taking damage from arrows, spears, etc.   During a war like the one that is coming to Westeros, I highly doubt that Dany will have her dragons landing in the middle of such a tight space with assailants surrounding them.  If they remain in the sky, the game is over.

Yeah it's a fun discussion.

I would like to rebut the part about the dragons first. I agree that it would be foolish to have a dragon land like we saw in the other scene during a battle. However, I think we are underestimating the range of one of these ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballista ). They can hit distances of 500+ yards in real life. Dragons are very powerful but they do have to get close to an enemy to attack it which puts them in range of these devices and arrows/spears. Think of it like a helicopter, which can rain death upon foot soldiers. But as deadly as they are even a helicopter can become the hunted if the foot soldiers are actually aware of it's presence and focus on taking it down. I don't dispute that her dragons are a deadly weapon but the people of Westeros are quite aware of how deadly they can be. And their ancestors fought against dragons.

 

Next regarding the numbers let's both agree that 150k give or take is her fighting force. And let's put me in charge of the defense. Let's so I'm able to raise armies from the Westerlands 30k, the crownlands 17k, and as the mother of the last Baratheon and wife of the King I'm able to rally some troops from the 5k Stormlands giving me. I also control Dragonstone which as 2k. My first line of action would be to identify who HATES the Tagerayn's more than I the queen and who I get to ally with me. The Iron Islands would be the first answer as the have the largest naval fleet in the world. The second thing I would pull what I can from the Riverlands that are already under crown control. I would put a Lannister in power and gather what soldiers or resources I can from the lands knowing permanent rule is not likely.

This would give me a fighting force of around 70k soldiers and a much larger naval fleet than her. The Dragonstone would be a high value target for Danny because controlling it is the only way to launch a large scale assault by sea. Knowing that I would station at least 200 ships there (kings landing normally has 160 and the Iron Islands has 400). I would also have heavy cannons and ballista's that are specifically for the dragons on the top of the keep.  This type of defense would render Danny's larger army completely useless for now. As for the castle I would pull a Lord of the Rings and conscript every able body male into the army as an archer to mount the defense. This is with wild fire traps, barricades to slow the Dothraki, and keep around 10,000 of my soldiers near the entrances to mop up anyone who makes it past the arrows. The rest of my army would be in defensive positions in my other holdings such Casterly Rock.

And let me put this out there, I still would expect to lose this fight but I would expect to take out at least 80 percent of her army.

[House_Tony_Stark]

That is why I say after fighting the crown I don't see how Danny would be able to realistically win a war with the North.