Jon, Sansa and the Battle Prep

[Einheri]

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, if I were a military commander, I don't think I would be too keen on a plan that went: "you and your men go in and fight and die for hours, and then when 90 percent of you are dead, me and my men will ride in and score a smashing victory."

The point was that they could have planned it so that Jon's forces wouldn't have been almost completely decimated by the time the Valemen arrived.

Disagree. If the Vale men hadn't arrived when they did, they would have met either a still-organized and still-mounted Bolton army that could pivot to engage the new army, or a convoluted mess on the battlefield in which horse would be nearly useless since no one can tell friend from foe. The only way it could have worked for certain is if Jon's army was nearly wiped out and the Vale men were basically closing in for the kill.

Ramsay is completely outmatched by the Starks forces + Vale army, and he would likely have stayed behind Winterfell's walls if he had known about the latter (and he should have known, but that's another plot hole), so that's why it would have been a good idea  to lure him out with an easy target before the reinforcements arrive. Once the armies had engaged each other, Ramsay's focus would have been directed against Jon & co, so the arrival of the Valemen would still have come as a surprise and most likely been devastating enough.

Besides, unless Sansa has  the gift of Greensight, she also had no idea that Ramsay would murder his own cavalry to form a mountain of corpses his phalanx could pin Jon & co up against, and for all she knew Jon's army could have been completely routed by the time the Valemen arrived, and then they would have deal with Ramsay on their own. And let's not forget that Sansa herself was trying to stall Jon's advance on Winterfell, so she clearly seemed to be worried about the notion that Jon & co might not be alive anymore when help arrived.

Jon was the only choice. Who else could rally even a single northman or get wildlings to risk their lives for Winterfell? Davos? Tormund?

Dunno, but if she believed Jon to be terrible at war she should have suggested to him that he should hand over the reigns to someone else (perhaps one of the Hornwoods, Mormonts or Mazins).

[A Ghost of Someone]

8 hours ago, willowbark said:

I find the change they made to the north storyline by having Sansa in jeyne's place to be very distasteful and problematic.  (I just erased a long rant paragraph about all the reasons why, but deleted it as it was off topic to the battle and the Stark siblings)

 I really think that the people who run the show do a very poor job at dealing with the real known psychological aftermath of what the characters live through.  The character actions across all storylines are inconsistent, frustrating, and don't make complete sense, becuase the writers are focused on particular scenes or setups that they want to make happen, so therefore a character must do/say a particular thing to get that event to occur.  I think it's far more noticeable in the North (Dorne is dead to me in the show) these past two seasons than anywhere else.  I had to eventually come to terms with the fact that since season 5, we are no longer watching characters (we have to hope we can read the final books for that), but rather that we are watching storylines play out.

 

I agree

[Quyen Thuy Tran]

14 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm not sure what the numbers are, or whether we saw all of the Vale army, but comparing the Bolton army at the beginning of the battle (and the one that slaughtered Stannis last season), including the horse that took the field in each case, with the KotV that appeared on screen, I would say it looked pretty even.

But still, the calculus that Sansa is using here is not which army is bigger and who is likely to win the battle, but how can she herself remove Ramsey and retake Winterfell. As she said, "no one can protect me. no one can protect anyone." So right there she is putting herself at No. 1, and everyone else, even Jon, is secondary. So in that light, what is the best way to beat Ramsey when you don't know a thing about fighting and battles? Have a piece on the board that he doesn't know about. Telling Jon about that piece would diminish its value because it would then be part of his plan and he will likely fall prey to whatever psych warfare tactic that Ramsey is bound to employ.

In this way, she is virtually guaranteed to come out the winner, even if Jon does not.

The Vale army's number has been described somewhere in the show. If I remember correctly, LF ensured her that at the beginning of ep 5 or so. And Sansa rejected them. And why was that such a huge number of Knight moving to the North but Ramsay didn't have a clue at all? Sorry I never buy the idea that Sansa is a strategist. She called for help, they agreed to come. She knew. But why Ramsay didn't know? At the same time Ramsay had such brilliant strategy and ignore his back... 

If Sansa wanted to ensure that Ramsay would never know about Vale army by not telling Jon, then she failed. The Vale Army must go through Moat Cailin or if they were staying at Moat Cailin, why Ramsay didn't do anything about that. The plot is full of holes. 

And yes, you're right that Sansa threw her family behind. 

[House_Tony_Stark]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, forgetting for the moment that Ramsey should have known that the Vale army was that close to the field, I think the point that others have made on this thread is valid here: Sansa is no military strategist, so she would have no idea how the Vale would be used in the battle. All she knows is that she doesn't trust Jon to withstand Ramsey's psycho games.

Also note that Jon would be in no position to have the KotV do anything. If they had linked up ahead of time and devised a plan, it would be LF and Royce calling the shots, not Jon.

And? The point is to win a battle efficiently not take credit for it. Had she had told Jon he could have worked with them to devise said plan and cause the least amount of loss of life on both sides.

If Jon's forces would have drew Ramsy's forces out into the battlefield which he would have done regardless....then like I said a flank on both sides would have most likely caused the Bolton forces to surrender. Not only that even if the other side caught win that a Kingdom with twice as many soldiers was about to join Jon's forces people would have been turning their back on Ramsey.

The only reason more people didn't join him was because they felt like his small army had no chance against the Bolton army. **Thanks again Sansa**

[House_Tony_Stark]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm not sure what the numbers are, or whether we saw all of the Vale army, but comparing the Bolton army at the beginning of the battle (and the one that slaughtered Stannis last season), including the horse that took the field in each case, with the KotV that appeared on screen, I would say it looked pretty even.

But still, the calculus that Sansa is using here is not which army is bigger and who is likely to win the battle, but how can she herself remove Ramsey and retake Winterfell. As she said, "no one can protect me. no one can protect anyone." So right there she is putting herself at No. 1, and everyone else, even Jon, is secondary. So in that light, what is the best way to beat Ramsey when you don't know a thing about fighting and battles? Have a piece on the board that he doesn't know about. Telling Jon about that piece would diminish its value because it would then be part of his plan and he will likely fall prey to whatever psych warfare tactic that Ramsey is bound to employ.

In this way, she is virtually guaranteed to come out the winner, even if Jon does not.

The Vale per lore can raise armies up of 45k.  The Vale also did not participate in any of the recent wars so they still have their complete fighting force. 

The largest army the North has ever raised was 30k. Robb Stark's army although rushed was only 15k and only about 5000 of them survived (Boltons & KarStarks).

Ramsey's army with the houses that took his side numbered 5,000 vs Jon's 2500. And no offense but you are showing how much you don't know about warfare which is okay.

Knights > Foot Soldiers

Which is why the minute the Vale forces took the field they literally were trampling the Bolton army. So yes, if she would have informed him it would have literally been a route. Even if Ramsey didn't leave Winterfell Jon had a giant that could have smashed the gate at any time. Which still would have resulted in a route.

[King Jon Snow Stark]

13 minutes ago, House_Tony_Stark said:

And? The point is to win a battle efficiently not take credit for it. Had she had told Jon he could have worked with them to devise said plan and cause the least amount of loss of life on both sides.

If Jon's forces would have drew Ramsy's forces out into the battlefield which he would have done regardless....then like I said a flank on both sides would have most likely caused the Bolton forces to surrender. Not only that even if the other side caught win that a Kingdom with twice as many soldiers was about to join Jon's forces people would have been turning their back on Ramsey.

The only reason more people didn't join him was because they felt like his small army had no chance against the Bolton army. **Thanks again Sansa**

Exactly if she had said they had the Vale behind them then more Houses in the North might have joined. And they would not have been shamed by Lady Lyanna Mormont. But we would have missed out on a great speech by Lady Mormont.

[House_Tony_Stark]

No offense..... but this is why women have been traditionally left out warfare....Not that men are better planners but people are defending a stupid mistake she made just because she is hot. If any man would have done something so stupid people would be ready to chop his head off.

Everyone makes mistakes and no one seems to be holding anything against Sansa. It's silly that people are defending what she did though........If Jon were the one that did not tell Sansa he had a massive army that was ready to assist just because some old lady has a crush on him he would be an IDIOT to say I don't want your help.

[House_Tony_Stark]

5 minutes ago, King Jon Stark Targaryen said:

Exactly if she had said they had the Vale behind them then more Houses in the North might have joined. And they would not have been shamed by Lady Lyanna Mormont. But we would have missed out on a great speech by Lady Mormont.

That was a pretty epic speech. It's a pity that her house is so small that girl is the northern version of Danny she would make a great leader.

[Lady Knows Nothing]

13 hours ago, Wilnova said:

 

Sansa may understand southern politics but she is a novice when it comes to the North. She got burned by Glover. Lyanna Mormont joined in only for Jon after Davos mentions Jeor's support for Jon. Sansa actually suggests that the Karstarks would support them despite Robb's actions and Davos has to explain some facts to her. The same Davos whom she constantly disparages to Jon.

The Northern army is Jon's. The Vale army is LF and Sansa's. Sansa has no understanding of Northern politics.

Sansa gave just one good piece of advice: Ramsay plays mind tricks. And that's about it. And what use is that advice when someone sees their little brother running towards them trying to evade arrows.

That is true Jon does have the support from the North which is why I think it will be Jon in the end who rules the North but what I was trying to say or what I meant was that the Northern politics and the Southern politics are two different play fields and Sansa and Littlefinger holds an advantage in that regard and will be useful if/when Dany comes to Westeros and if/when Cersei would ever attack Winterfell. She can inform him how Southern politics work while Jon is will be an asset in informing about the white walkers and wildlings.

[Wilnova]

It would have been actually very brilliant if Sansa had in fact enacted LF's plan that he lays out in front of Cersei: Wait for Stannis and the Boltons to destroy each other and then swoop in with Vale enforcements. In this case it would be to wait for Jon and Ramsay's army to wipe each other out and then bring in the Vale enforcements.

- It would be good storytelling to show us that Sansa has in fact learned from LF and is able to think like him.

- LF tells Sansa in episode 5 that the Northern army is Jon's army and not hers. Sansa realizes this is true by episode 9. The Wildlings and Mormonts are loyal to Jon. Blackfish is not coming. By holding back on the Vale info, Jon's army lost a lot of men, while the Vale forces remain almost untouched.

- We see Sansa give up on Rickon as a lost cause. Despite using him to get Jon to fight for Winterfell. And Rickon was her true born brother. It cannot be too much of a stretch that she had no problem risking Jon's life to make sure she gets the upper hand at the end of it all. Sansa holds back info about the Vale army not because she thinks Jon is a terrible commander, but she does not want JON to use the Vale army. It's hers.

And I think this is what they were going for early on in the season. Sansa starts lying to Jon about the Vale army in episode 5. In the same episode where LF warns her about getting an army loyal only to herself. And D and D mention in the BTS interview that her lying shows that LF's statements had an effect on her. But by the end, they just shrugged off her whole lying about something so important with a kiss on the forehead from Jon! Maybe they want to deal with Sansa/LF Vs Jon conflict next season.

 

2 hours ago, Lady Knows Nothing said:

That is true Jon does have the support from the North which is why I think it will be Jon in the end who rules the North but what I was trying to say or what I meant was that the Northern politics and the Southern politics are two different play fields and Sansa and Littlefinger holds an advantage in that regard and will be useful if/when Dany comes to Westeros and if/when Cersei would ever attack Winterfell. She can inform him how Southern politics work while Jon is will be an asset in informing about the white walkers and wildlings.

Dany is not an expert in southern politics either. She knows only Essosi politics. I suspect Dany will take down Cersei and then focus North. In which case someone like Davos should be good enough for Jon to deal with Dany.

Rather, I think that Sansa will use her southern politicking knowledge to undermine Jon in the North. Jon should be more vary of Sansa than Cersei or Dany.

 

[Lady Knows Nothing]

12 minutes ago, Wilnova said:

 

Rather, I think that Sansa will use her southern politicking knowledge to undermine Jon in the North. Jon should be more vary of Sansa than Cersei or Dany.

 

Why do you think that?

[Wilnova]

47 minutes ago, Lady Knows Nothing said:

Why do you think that?

Because Sansa has already undermined Jon's campaign by holding back vital info that he could have used to win. For her own selfish reasons. Sansa was in it to defeat Ramsay and get Winterfell back. Jon was in it to save Rickon and unite the North to face the Others. There's a fundamental difference in their way of thinking.  I think she expected to be Queen in the North or Wardeness of the North which is what LF promised her. But the North chose the bastard born in the south as opposed to the true born daughter of Ned.

As GRRM says, all families are dysfunctional. Not all siblings in every family get along. There are going to disagreements and fighting against inheritances and property. Why should the Starks be any different? 

Sansa as a character is different from the other Starks in that she is always looking out for number one. She has chosen the Lannisters over her family twice and even in the Vale she is not averse to her cousin being overdosed with sweetsleep (Despite the Maester's warnings) and dying so that her fiance Harry can be the heir. It's more about her survival and currently that's led to her/LF against the world. I don't blame her for only thinking about her survival. But that's her character. As opposed to Jon who would rather die and risk the safety of the NW than kill one old man at the Queenscrown.

From the BTS interviews it looks like they are setting up some kind of conflict between Jon-Sansa next season. Apparently Sansa is jealous of Jon becoming KITN as per Sophie turner. If this happens Sansa is going to use whatever she learned from LF to undermine Jon. She may try to play the Northern houses against each other. But the fact that she does not understand Northern politics may be her undoing.

[Lady Knows Nothing]

I agree with you that all families are dysfunctional but on what base can you say that Sansa want Winterfell back for selfish reasons? I think we have a difference in opinion on Sansa's character which I'm going to say agree to disagree.

[Lady Knows Nothing]

6 minutes ago, Wilnova said:

 

Because Sansa has already undermined Jon's campaign by holding back vital info that he could have used to win. For her own selfish reasons. Sansa was in it to defeat Ramsay and get Winterfell back. Jon was in it to save Rickon and unite the North to face the Others. There's a fundamental difference in their way of thinking.  I think she expected to be Queen in the North or Wardeness of the North which is what LF promised her. But the North chose the bastard born in the south as opposed to the true born daughter of Ned.

As GRRM says, all families are dysfunctional. Not all siblings in every family get along. There are going to disagreements and fighting against inheritances and property. Why should the Starks be any different? 

Sansa as a character is different from the other Starks in that she is always looking out for number one. She has chosen the Lannisters over her family twice and even in the Vale she is not averse to her cousin being overdosed with sweetsleep (Despite the Maester's warnings) and dying so that her fiance Harry can be the heir. It's more about her survival and currently that's led to her/LF against the world. I don't blame her for only thinking about her survival. But that's her character. As opposed to Jon who would rather die and risk the safety of the NW than kill one old man at the Queenscrown.

From the BTS interviews it looks like they are setting up some kind of conflict between Jon-Sansa next season. Apparently Sansa is jealous of Jon becoming KITN as per Sophie turner. If this happens Sansa is going to use whatever she learned from LF to undermine Jon. She may try to play the Northern houses against each other. But the fact that she does not understand Northern politics may be her undoing.

I agree with you that all families are dysfunctional but on what base can you say that Sansa want Winterfell back for selfish reasons? I think we have a difference in opinion on Sansa's character which I'm going to say agree to disagree.

[Eugs]

That Jon made an irrational emotionally charged decision that almost got him killed does not take away from his honorable actions in the eyes of his fellow northmen.  Jon put his brother's life before his which is about as dignified a thing as a northman can do.  He then slugged it out in the thick of a brutal battle, bleeding in the trenches with his banner men.  He was a god awful battle commander in the BOB but a damn near legendary soldier, and that is what resonates with the northern houses and the wildlings.  They saw real bravery and extraordinary ability as a warrior and realized that Jon was made of the stuff that exemplifies great men in the North.  

    Sansa made a terrible decision in not informing Jon of the imminent arrival of the Knights of the Vale.  Not only should he have died on at least five different occasions if it weren't for divine fate intervening, but they could have easily orchestrated a Knights of Vale ambush without having Jon's troops completely trapped in a mosh pit of death.  Ramsey was too drunk with confidence to notice the huge Vale cavalry encampment at Moat Cailin, or perhaps his twenty good men were on vacation.  Sansa should have lost both her brothers on the battlefield. She withheld critical information that could have given Jon the confidence to formulate a much better battlefield strategy.  He was terrible as a military commander but she was worse by not communicating the Vale's support and giving him a chance to actually plan something effective.

[Chib]

3 hours ago, Lady Knows Nothing said:

I agree with you that all families are dysfunctional but on what base can you say that Sansa want Winterfell back for selfish reasons? I think we have a difference in opinion on Sansa's character which I'm going to say agree to disagree.

 

 

She encouraged Jon to go to battle because "we have to save Rickon and take back our home". Then she gave up on Rickon and only wanted to destroy Ramsay. I'd say it's Sansa's true character. She will always put herself and her goal before her family. 

[Ice Turtle]

Jon and Sansa in the show are both galactic morons. Only Jon also manages to be goodhearted, loyal to his family and great with sword while Sansa is kind of whinny opportunistic snob.

 

[Lady Knows Nothing]

6 hours ago, Chib said:

She encouraged Jon to go to battle because "we have to save Rickon and take back our home". Then she gave up on Rickon and only wanted to destroy Ramsay. I'd say it's Sansa's true character. She will always put herself and her goal before her family. 

How did she give up on Rickon? I mean she did have a conversation with Jon about Ramsey and about how he would just kill him off but in my opinion she was stating the truth. If anything in a moment when she knew Jon's army wasn't going to win she sent for Littlefinger even though she dislikes him for giving her to Ramsey to help win the battle in the end. How is that giving up? In the end of episode 10 she wasn't having anything to do with Littlefinger's plan for the both of them and in that last scene with her and Jon he offered her the lord's chambers but she told him that he should take instead. We both can interpret it anyway we want but I think Sansa is a more rounded character than that and it is not just black and white. Yes, she is not perfect and I once thought she was a prissy little bitch but that was seasons ago. I'm done arguing on this matter.

[Quyen Thuy Tran]

1 hour ago, Lady Knows Nothing said:

How did she give up on Rickon? I mean she did have a conversation with Jon about Ramsey and about how he would just kill him off but in my opinion she was stating the truth. If anything in a moment when she knew Jon's army wasn't going to win she sent for Littlefinger even though she dislikes him for giving her to Ramsey to help win the battle in the end. How is that giving up? In the end of episode 10 she wasn't having anything to do with Littlefinger's plan for the both of them and in that last scene with her and Jon he offered her the lord's chambers but she told him that he should take instead. We both can interpret it anyway we want but I think Sansa is a more rounded character than that and it is not just black and white. Yes, she is not perfect and I once thought she was a prissy little bitch but that was seasons ago. I'm done arguing on this matter.

If anyone who didn't give up on Rickon, it's only Jon. Sansa practically just accepted her brother's dead when she kept the information of the Vale Knight for herself. 

Her true character was one of the reasons that killed her father. She has always been like that. Nothing changes. She loves her family yes, but she loves to be queen more, and she loves to revenge for herself more. At some point if she continues that way, she will be like Cersei. 

[willowbark]

13 hours ago, Chib said:

She encouraged Jon to go to battle because "we have to save Rickon and take back our home". Then she gave up on Rickon and only wanted to destroy Ramsay. I'd say it's Sansa's true character. She will always put herself and her goal before her family. 

She spoke of saving Rickon in episode 4 or 5, and said that Rickon wouldn't be able to be saved in episode 9, after Ramsey showed them the direwolf head.  If Varys can travel to Dorne and back to Mereen in one episode, then i think Sansa has time to really think about the situation and come to different conclusions over a course of multiple episodes.