Varys kept Gendry and Aegon alive as a backup plan

[Andyjellylove]

There are several theories on why Varys kept Gendry close and saved him when all the Baratheon bastards were being slaughtered and even more theories on why he saved Aegon from the mountain. 

Varys is not the kind of man to act without a plan. He's even less likely to ignore the possible consequences of his actions. I think Varys always suspected that having Robert as king wouldn't work out. Or at least he suspected it enough to believe he needed a back up plan in case something bad happened, such as the War of Five Kings. How does one ensure that Robert being crowned does not doom him? He keeps a Targaryen baby alive. Now, he could've used Viserys in his plan considering he managed to get away, but the people would be less likely to support the child of the mad King compared to the child of Rhaegar who was widely well liked. If Robert ever became a problem, he could kill off Robert or have Aegon challenge him. If Robert is dead, he can expose Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tomen as Cersei and Jamie's children. Even if Robert is alive, Aegon has a better claim to the throne than him. It all works out. 

But what if it doesn't. What if Aegon is a terrible ruler or becomes as mad as his grandfather, what then? There's a back up for that too. Possibly Roberts eldest son, Gendry has a legitimate claim even as a bastard. He's the same age as Aegon if not a bit younger. He's relatable to the common folk after living with them for so long. If Aegon dies without an heir, he could always have Gendry try to claim the throne as the son of the old King. It's the back up plan to the back up plan. 

I could be wrong, but this is probably what Varys was thinking. At least, that's the only logical reason to keep both of them alive. 

[Nevets]

If he were going to use Gendry as a backup, he wouldn't have sent him to the Night's Watch.  Once he takes vows, his chances of inheriting anything drop from extremely low to zero.  Gendry really isn't a possibility to rule anyway.  He is unacknowledged, uneducated, not terribly bright, and has no leadership skills at all.

As for Aegon, I think he's fake, and Varys took advantage of the missing face to introduce an impostor.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

I don't think that Varys has Aegon as anyone's back up plan, he is his primary and only plan. He doesn't care about the Realm or the good of the people, he want revenge and making the first Blackfyre king.

15 hours ago, Andyjellylove said:

 What if Aegon is a terrible ruler or becomes as mad as his grandfather,

We don't know if Aegon's grandfather was a mad man. 

15 hours ago, Andyjellylove said:

Possibly Roberts eldest son, Gendry has a legitimate claim even as a bastard.

No he doesn't, her father hadn't acknowledged him so he has no father. 

15 hours ago, Andyjellylove said:

He's the same age as Aegon if not a bit younger.

If Aegon was the one he claims to be he would had been 2 or one year older than Gendry.

9 minutes ago, Nevets said:

not terribly bright, and has no leadership skills at all.

How do you know that?

 

[Nevets]

7 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

How do you know that?

Because he lets Arya and Willow order him around without objection.  He immediately defers to Arya once he finds out she's highborn.  He practically has to be forced to leave Harrenhal, more or less likes it there.  Other than joining the BwB, I have seen no indication of taking initiative or leading.  And I seem to remember him sometimes having trouble figuring stuff out, but that may be an unfamiliar environment.  In any case, I am not all that impressed by him.  He's a perfectly nice guy and may make a decent fighter, but I don't see him as leadership material.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

32 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Because he lets Arya and Willow order him around without objection.  He immediately defers to Arya once he finds out she's highborn.  He practically has to be forced to leave Harrenhal, more or less likes it there.  Other than joining the BwB, I have seen no indication of taking initiative or leading.  And I seem to remember him sometimes having trouble figuring stuff out, but that may be an unfamiliar environment.  In any case, I am not all that impressed by him.  He's a perfectly nice guy and may make a decent fighter, but I don't see him as leadership material.

For you a leader or a smart person has to force the others to do what they want and can't be cautious? Not everyone is born leaders, they can become in the future if someone teach them, from what we know so far young Ned was just like that even if he had Jon but he grew up to be a leader. 

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

2 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I don't think that Varys has Aegon as anyone's back up plan, he is his primary and only plan. He doesn't care about the Realm or the good of the people, he want revenge and making the first Blackfyre king.

This.

If Varys kept Gendry alive it was to use him as living proof of the twincest, for when the time comes to remove the false Baratheons from power. Stannis wanted to get his hands on Edric Storm for the same reason. 

[Maxxine]

2 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I don't think that Varys has Aegon as anyone's back up plan, he is his primary and only plan. He doesn't care about the Realm or the good of the people, he want revenge and making the first Blackfyre king.

 

I'm not sold on the good of the realm thing but I'm also not sold on the Blackfyre revenge thing for Varys. However if I were forced to pick today I think I would lean toward the good of the realm over the Blackfyre angle. First reason being is that we don't know if Varys has any reason to care about the blackfyres. Possibility he has some Blackfyre/Targ heritage but I'm not 100% convinced. My biggest reason though is speech to Kevan though. When talking about Aegon he pretty much points to the good of the realm. He really has no reason to lie to Kevan since Kevan is going to die anyway, so this is his moment give his true reasons. Even if GRRM doesn't want to spell it out for us at this point Varys could've still given some other indication that good of the realm was not his true purpose considering his audience could not hurt him. My opinion on this could change when winds comes out or even my next reread but that's where I'm leaning today.

[Andyjellylove]

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

If he were going to use Gendry as a backup, he wouldn't have sent him to the Night's Watch.  Once he takes vows, his chances of inheriting anything drop from extremely low to zero.  

Gendry was still being hunted at the time. Keeping him in the city was more dangerous than anything. The nights watch we're the only people who would be unsuspected while leaving the city. There was a chance they were never supposed to make it to the nights watch, as they never did. 

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

Gendry really isn't a possibility to rule anyway.  He is unacknowledged, uneducated, not terribly bright, and has no leadership skills at all. 

This is Gendry as he is right now. Varys has a while to see how Aegon will be as a ruler and can train him in that time. Gendry shows a lot of potential as a knight and is stubborn yet listens to others. Not everyone is born a leader, some people become great leaders. Plus, he has the advantage of having spent so much time with Arya. When the time comes, she would support him and so would the north. 

2 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I don't think that Varys has Aegon as anyone's back up plan, he is his primary and only plan. He doesn't care about the Realm or the good of the people, he want revenge and making the first Blackfyre king.

I highly doubt that's his plan, mostly because of his monologue in a dance with dragons. He told a dead man that Aegon was alive. Not that he created a fake Aegon, but that Aegon never died. I think Aegon is a back up for the sole reason that Varys was nowhere to be seen during the siege. He knew Robert was gonna win and needed to do something about it. Maybe not the traditional back up plan in which Robert was the original plan, but in the way that he needed a plan for what was going to come. 

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

As for Aegon, I think he's fake, and Varys took advantage of the missing face to introduce an impostor.

That's not possible. The baby was given to Jon before "Aegon" and his family died. Plus, if that's true, he would have to have had an Aegon looking baby on standby for the slight chance that Aegon's face would be unrecognizable. It's much more believable that he found a baby that at least vaguely resembled Aegon and switch him with the real Aegon. It's hard to tell the difference between babies and I doubt Robert would be too harsh about details in the baby's face as long as the purple eyes and white hair thing matched up.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

47 minutes ago, Andyjellylove said:

I highly doubt that's his plan, mostly because of his monologue in a dance with dragons. He told a dead man that Aegon was alive. Not that he created a fake Aegon, but that Aegon never died. I think Aegon is a back up for the sole reason that Varys was nowhere to be seen during the siege. He knew Robert was gonna win and needed to do something about it. Maybe not the traditional back up plan in which Robert was the original plan, but in the way that he needed a plan for what was going to come. 

Actually he told a dying man with many children around him "No. He is here." he never told who Aegon was and since the Targs are not the only people who have used that name there is no reason to believe that Varys' Aegon and Rhaegar's Aegon is the same person. Why Varys, the man who turned Aerys against Rhaegar, should cared about the Targaryens and would had risked everything to bring them back?

47 minutes ago, Andyjellylove said:

The baby was given to Jon before "Aegon" and his family died.

Wrong. Jon got to Aegon years after the Rebellion when the boy was five or six.

47 minutes ago, Andyjellylove said:

an Aegon looking baby on standby

He didn't needed one. Rhaegar's Aegon died while his mother holded him. There is no way that a mother would had abandoned her daughter to die alone while she would protect a fake baby.

For more informations about who Aegon is and what Varys wants; 

 

 

48 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

the good of the realm

If he wanted the good of the Realm he wouldn't had turned Aerys against Rhaegar.

48 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

When talking about Aegon

Yet he never said which Aegon. He never said that his Aegon was Rhaegar's Aegon.

48 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

He really has no reason to lie to Kevan since Kevan is going to die anyway, so this is his moment give his true reasons.

There were children present and he never lied. He told that Aegon was here but he never mentioned who Aegon was.

 

[Maxxine]

48 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Actually he told a dying man with many children around him "No. He is here." he never told who Aegon was and since the Targs are not the only people who have used that name there is no reason to believe that Varys' Aegon and Rhaegar's Aegon is the same person. Why Varys, the man who turned Aerys against Rhaegar, should cared about the Targaryens and would had risked everything to bring them back?

Wrong. Jon got to Aegon years after the Rebellion when the boy was five or six.

He didn't needed one. Rhaegar's Aegon died while his mother holded him. There is no way that a mother would had abandoned her daughter to die alone while she would protect a fake baby.

For more informations about who Aegon is and what Varys wants; 

 

 

If he wanted the good of the Realm he wouldn't had turned Aerys against Rhaegar.

Yet he never said which Aegon. He never said that his Aegon was Rhaegar's Aegon.

There were children present and he never lied. He told that Aegon was here but he never mentioned who Aegon was.

 

Unless he thought turning Aerys against Rhaegar was for the good of the realm, which isn't a big leap considering i think most of the ppl felt that way. 

I believe he essentially says he backs Aegon bc he believes Aegon is what's best. There's no indication  from this conversation that he's doing it bc he has some secret Blackfyre vendetta. It was his mute little birds, a dead man, & a man who was about to be dead in the room. If there was time he could be honest about his true intentions it was then. He just had no reason to be facitious at that point. 

I'm not saying you're wrong about the Blackfyre thing. I'm just not convinced right now. I'm not overly convinced about anything concerning varys. But if I had to choose now it would be the good of the realm argument 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

13 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

Unless he thought turning Aerys against Rhaegar was for the good of the realm, which isn't a big leap considering i think most of the ppl felt that way. 

What was good for the Realm? For the father to hate his son and consider him his enemy? Wouldn't be better for the Realm if he had told nothing against Rhaegar and he was overthrown without a war?

13 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

I believe he essentially says he backs Aegon bc he believes Aegon is what's best. There's no indication  from this conversation that he's doing it bc he has some secret Blackfyre vendetta. It was his mute little birds, a dead man, & a man who was about to be dead in the room. If there was time he could be honest about his true intentions it was then. He just had no reason to be facitious at that point. 

But he didn't lied. He said that Aegon had come but he never mentioned who Aegon's father was.

13 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

I'm not saying you're wrong about the Blackfyre thing. I'm just not convinced right now. I'm not overly convinced about anything concerning varys. But if I had to choose now it would be the good of the realm argument 

The reason I don't believe that is about the good of the Realm is because he *helped* Aerys' paranoia and helped creating the war, instead of a quick and almost bloodless coup.

[Maxxine]

32 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

What was good for the Realm? For the father to hate his son and consider him his enemy? Wouldn't be better for the Realm if he had told nothing against Rhaegar and he was overthrown without a war?

But he didn't lied. He said that Aegon had come but he never mentioned who Aegon's father was.

The reason I don't believe that is about the good of the Realm is because he *helped* Aerys' paranoia and helped creating the war, instead of a quick and almost bloodless coup.

Better for the realm for Rhaegar to be king instead of Aerys. And I hesitate to 100% blame Varys for Aerys-Rhaegar issue. He was doing his job. We don't know but there's no indication he told Aerys lies is there?. Also the other thing reason I'm not convinced of the Blackfyre thing is it gives Varys way too much credit to me. 

I don't know if there was a way for a bloodless coup. To usurp aerys & put rhaegar on the throne there still would've been war. I find it doubtful no one would've rose for aerys. And the rebellion that came about didn't start bc of the aerys- rhaegar relationship. It was the rhaegar taking Lyanna which probably happened bc of a prophecy varys had nothing to do with. Of course I believe there were other factors & that was just the last big event but varys had nothing to do with that.

[Masha]

3 hours ago, Maxxine said:

I'm not sold on the good of the realm thing but I'm also not sold on the Blackfyre revenge thing for Varys. However if I were forced to pick today I think I would lean toward the good of the realm over the Blackfyre angle. First reason being is that we don't know if Varys has any reason to care about the blackfyres. Possibility he has some Blackfyre/Targ heritage but I'm not 100% convinced. My biggest reason though is speech to Kevan though. When talking about Aegon he pretty much points to the good of the realm. He really has no reason to lie to Kevan since Kevan is going to die anyway, so this is his moment give his true reasons. Even if GRRM doesn't want to spell it out for us at this point Varys could've still given some other indication that good of the realm was not his true purpose considering his audience could not hurt him. My opinion on this could change when winds comes out or even my next reread but that's where I'm leaning today.

The theory goes that Varys is a Blackfire himself thus he wants a Blackfire on the throne, a long-simmering goal for Blackfire.

(Actually, did Bittersteel had ANY children or just Daemon Blackfire did?)

42 minutes ago, Maxxine said:

Better for the realm for Rhaegar to be king instead of Aerys. And I hesitate to 100% blame Varys for Aerys-Rhaegar issue. He was doing his job. We don't know but there's no indication he told Aerys lies is there?. Also the other thing reason I'm not convinced of the Blackfyre thing is it gives Varys way too much credit to me. 

I don't know if there was a way for a bloodless coup. To usurp aerys & put rhaegar on the throne there still would've been war. I find it doubtful no one would've rose for aerys. And the rebellion that came about didn't start bc of the aerys- rhaegar relationship. It was the rhaegar taking Lyanna which probably happened bc of a prophecy varys had nothing to do with. Of course I believe there were other factors & that was just the last big event but varys had nothing to do with that.

Varys actually increased Aerys paranaia by whispering half-truths and lies to him. If his goal was "for the good of the realm" why did that involve getting Aerys paranoid and hating his own son and pushing him to crazy actions? At one point Aerys was planning to disown Rhaegar in favor of Viserys who was already showing signs of instability.

What Varys wanted was crazy Targaeryens on the throne, and whole realm disenchanted and not supporting them. So that when another Blackfire rebellion came about they could claim their old mantra about Daeron Targaeryen line being bastard one (aka that old Aemon x  Naerys= Daeron rumor that original Blackfire and Bittersteel planted) and they could come in as true saviors of the realm. With most of Lords rebelling against Daeron's line and throwing support over to Blackfires..

Rhaegar was actually a pretty smart guy who would probably heal the realm and be a strong king, thus standing in Varys plan.

What Varys didn't expect was Rhaegar's actions, Rebellion that followed and final overthrow of Targaeryens. Thats why he frantically tried to prop-up Aerys as Pycelle was trying to undermine him.

His plans changed, instead of Blackfires saving the realm from crazy Targaeryens now Blackfires would pretend to be the same Targaeryens thus claiming legitimacy..

                                                                  

[Andyjellylove]

The reason I don't believe the Blackfyre theory as well as the Aegon is fake theory is mostly due to how cheap it would be to use this. It's too obvious to be true. The mummer's dragon Quaith tells Dany about and the paper dragon she sees in her house of the undying scene referring to Aegon being a fake are way to obvious. I personally prefer the idea that she is the mummer's dragon and she has to avoid falling into these stories about her greatness. While Aegon being a fake is possible, I don't think that's the truth. I think he is actually Aegon. The Blackfyre plot should be for Jon considering he is thought to be Rhaegar's bastard and therefore is a Blackfyre.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

10 hours ago, Maxxine said:

Better for the realm for Rhaegar to be king instead of Aerys. And I hesitate to 100% blame Varys for Aerys-Rhaegar issue. He was doing his job. We don't know but there's no indication he told Aerys lies is there?. Also the other thing reason I'm not convinced of the Blackfyre thing is it gives Varys way too much credit to me. 

If he wanted what was better for the Realm he wouldn't had done his job and he would had feg Aerys with wispers about how loyal Rhaegar was in order to keep Rhaegar closer.

10 hours ago, Maxxine said:

I don't know if there was a way for a bloodless coup. To usurp aerys & put rhaegar on the throne there still would've been war. I find it doubtful no one would've rose for aerys. And the rebellion that came about didn't start bc of the aerys- rhaegar relationship. It was the rhaegar taking Lyanna which probably happened bc of a prophecy varys had nothing to do with. Of course I believe there were other factors & that was just the last big event but varys had nothing to do with that.

There was no need for war. If Varys hadn't fed Aerys' paranoia and if Rhaegar wasn't a moron, Rhaegar would had been close to everyone and would had been able to act even in the night. arrest his father and put him under house arrest. Who would had fought for Aerys against Rhaegar the beloved?

[Julia H.]

It is difficult to believe Varys's speech to Kevan due to the little irony that the author included in the scene. Varys says everything happens "for the children" (which is supposed to mean the same as the good of the realm), but at the moment they are surrounded by children who are obviously used by Varys. They do what he tells them to do, including the rather terrible job of murdering a person, and we know they were mutilated in a horrible way so they could serve him and keep his secrets better. This circumstance highlights the hypocrisy of Varys's words and exposes him as a liar. The reader is warned that Varys uses children instead of working for them, so he must have some ulterior motive.

The story of (F)Aegon in ADwD has Blackfyre written all over it. 

Regarding Gendry, I think it is very possible that it was Eddard who thought of sending him to the Wall. Ned had promised Robert to look after Robert's children as though they were his own and he meant Robert's bastards. Gendry was obviously in the greatest danger and there was a way to save him - the very same way that Jon Snow was also protected from Robert. Eddard himself was to take the black, so he could hope to look after at least one of Robert's children there. He asked Varys if Varys would deliver a letter for him. Varys plainly told him that he would definitely read that letter first, therefore I doubt that Ned would put any secret information (such as Jon Snow's parentage) into his hands, but he could hope that Varys wouldn't mind saving Gendry's life - Gendry would be no threat to anyone on the Wall.

Varys may also have wanted to keep Gendry as living proof of Joffrey's parentage to be used later, but he still didn't do anything to save little Barra, who could be used for the same purpose. 

[Andyjellylove]

4 hours ago, Julia H. said:

Varys may also have wanted to keep Gendry as living proof of Joffrey's parentage to be used later, but he still didn't do anything to save little Barra, who could be used for the same purpose. 

That's interesting and possibly true. However, there would be no need to keep Gendry alive for this purpose. Robert already has at least two known bastards, Edric and Mya, who both look like him. I think it's how he convinced Ned at the time, but he totally could've gotten Edric or Mya when the time came. And like you said, he didn't save any other child. Plus, it's been said or at least hinted at that Varys is the one who got Gendry his apprenticeship. He didn't just save him when the bastards were dying. He had kept him close and alive for years. 

[Julia H.]

1 hour ago, Andyjellylove said:

That's interesting and possibly true. However, there would be no need to keep Gendry alive for this purpose. Robert already has at least two known bastards, Edric and Mya, who both look like him. I think it's how he convinced Ned at the time, but he totally could've gotten Edric or Mya when the time came. And like you said, he didn't save any other child. Plus, it's been said or at least hinted at that Varys is the one who got Gendry his apprenticeship. He didn't just save him when the bastards were dying. He had kept him close and alive for years. 

Well, that makes it even more probable that sending Gendry to the Wall may have been Ned's idea. 

[Ashes Of Westeros]

I think YG was Varys's Plan B, but not Gendry. Robert B had an acknowledged bastard Edric Strom, fostered in Storm's End, meaning Edric is properly educated and trained for a noble. If Varys wanted Gendry to become a plan be to access the Iron Throne he would probably take him somewhere to train him for ruling.

Besides that a Targarian heir would get more support in his claim. The Targarians ruled Westeros for 300 years and still seen by many a legitimate kings, while Baratheon's reign  lasted less than two decades.

[Khal BlackfyreO]

So Gendry isn´t a plan B, but then why save him?  Why does Varys care about an illegitimate bastard of Robert?  Why bother?